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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

An implementation of neural simulation-based inference for parameter estimation in ATLAS

Neural simulation-based inference (NSBI) is a powerful class of machine-learning-based methods for statistical inference that naturally handles high-dimensional parameter estimation without the need to bin data into low-dimensional summary histograms. Such methods are promising for a range of measurements, including at the Large Hadron Collider, where no single observable may be optimal to scan over the entire theoretical phase space under consideration, or where binning data into histograms could result in a loss of sensitivity. This work develops a NSBI framework for statistical inference, using neural networks to estimate probability density ratios, which enables the application to a full-scale analysis. It incorporates a large number of systematic uncertainties, quantifies the uncertainty due to the finite number of events in training samples, develops a method to construct confidence intervals, and demonstrates a series of intermediate diagnostic checks that can be performed to validate the robustness of the method. As an example, the power and feasibility of the method are assessed on simulated data for a simplified version of an off-shell Higgs boson couplings measurement in the four-lepton final states. This approach represents an extension to the standard statistical methodology used by the experiments at the Large Hadron Collider, and can benefit many physics analyses.

frequentist statistics↗
NASA NTRS2001

Approach for Uncertainty Propagation and Robust Design in CFD Using Sensitivity Derivatives

This paper presents an implementation of the approximate statistical moment method for uncertainty propagation and robust optimization for a quasi 1-D Euler CFD (computational fluid dynamics) code. Given uncertainties in statistically independent, random, normally distributed input variables, a first- and second-order statistical moment matching procedure is performed to approximate the uncertainty in the CFD output. Efficient calculation of both first- and second-order sensitivity derivatives is required. In order to assess the validity of the approximations, the moments are compared with statistical moments generated through Monte Carlo simulations. The uncertainties in the CFD input variables are also incorporated into a robust optimization procedure. For this optimization, statistical moments involving first-order sensitivity derivatives appear in the objective function and system constraints. Second-order sensitivity derivatives are used in a gradient-based search to successfully execute a robust optimization. The approximate methods used throughout the analyses are found to be valid when considering robustness about input parameter mean values.

Putko, Michele M.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Improved Pyrotechnic Shock Scaling Method Based on Shock Response Spectrum and Statistical Energy Analysis

It has been more than forty years since the pyrotechnic shock scaling method was introduced. The scaling method estimates the attenuation of the Shock Response Spectrum (SRS) based on the distance from the source, structural configurations, types of structural joints and interfaces, and intervening structure [1]. The method has been successfully used in the spacecraft community countless times and still is frequently used to develop pyrotechnic shock requirements at various levels of assembly of a spacecraft. However, since the method was derived empirically from a limited set of shock test data [2], the aerospace community has been looking for an alternative approach. In this paper, a computational scaling method based on Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) is re-visited. SEA is traditionally used as a method for investigating the diffusion of acoustic and vibratory energies of a system at steady-state [3]. Previously, an approach using the SRS as an acceleration constraint condition to the SEA model was introduced to estimate the attenuation from a shock source [4,5]. In the current investigation, additional examples are provided to further validate the approach. In addition, responses in the time domain are produced by the Local Modal Phase Reconstruction (LMPR) approach which was recently introduced to the community [6].

Fernandez, Juan P.↗
NASA NTRS1978

The CLASSY clustering algorithm: Description, evaluation, and comparison with the iterative self-organizing clustering system (ISOCLS)

A clustering method, CLASSY, was developed, which alternates maximum likelihood iteration with a procedure for splitting, combining, and eliminating the resulting statistics. The method maximizes the fit of a mixture of normal distributions to the observed first through fourth central moments of the data and produces an estimate of the proportions, means, and covariances in this mixture. The mathematical model which is the basic for CLASSY and the actual operation of the algorithm is described. Data comparing the performances of CLASSY and ISOCLS on simulated and actual LACIE data are presented.

Lennington, R. K.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Out-of-Distribution Detection and Radiological Data Monitoring Using Statistical Process Control

Abstract Machine learning (ML) models often fail with data that deviates from their training distribution. This is a significant concern for ML-enabled devices as data drift may lead to unexpected performance. This work introduces a new framework for out of distribution (OOD) detection and data drift monitoring that combines ML and geometric methods with statistical process control (SPC). We investigated different design choices, including methods for extracting feature representations and drift quantification for OOD detection in individual images and as an approach for input data monitoring. We evaluated the framework for both identifying OOD images and demonstrating the ability to detect shifts in data streams over time. We demonstrated a proof-of-concept via the following tasks: 1) differentiating axial vs. non-axial CT images, 2) differentiating CXR vs. other radiographic imaging modalities, and 3) differentiating adult CXR vs. pediatric CXR. For the identification of individual OOD images, our framework achieved high sensitivity in detecting OOD inputs: 0.980 in CT, 0.984 in CXR, and 0.854 in pediatric CXR. Our framework is also adept at monitoring data streams and identifying the time a drift occurred. In our simulations tracking drift over time, it effectively detected a shift from CXR to non-CXR instantly, a transition from axial to non-axial CT within few days, and a drift from adult to pediatric CXRs within a day—all while maintaining a low false positive rate. Through additional experiments, we demonstrate the framework is modality-agnostic and independent from the underlying model structure, making it highly customizable for specific applications and broadly applicable across different imaging modalities and deployed ML models.

Zamzmi, Ghada↗
NASA NTRS1985

Identification of dynamic systems, theory and formulation

The problem of estimating parameters of dynamic systems is addressed in order to present the theoretical basis of system identification and parameter estimation in a manner that is complete and rigorous, yet understandable with minimal prerequisites. Maximum likelihood and related estimators are highlighted. The approach used requires familiarity with calculus, linear algebra, and probability, but does not require knowledge of stochastic processes or functional analysis. The treatment emphasizes unification of the various areas in estimation in dynamic systems is treated as a direct outgrowth of the static system theory. Topics covered include basic concepts and definitions; numerical optimization methods; probability; statistical estimators; estimation in static systems; stochastic processes; state estimation in dynamic systems; output error, filter error, and equation error methods of parameter estimation in dynamic systems, and the accuracy of the estimates.

Maine, R. E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Joint inference of multiplicative and additive systematics in galaxy density fluctuations and clustering measurements

Galaxy clustering measurements are a key probe of the matter density field in the Universe. With the era of precision cosmology upon us, surveys rely on precise measurements of the clustering signal for meaningful cosmological analysis. However, the presence of systematic contaminants can bias the observed galaxy number density, and thereby bias the galaxy two-point statistics. As the statistical uncertainties get smaller, correcting for these systematic contaminants becomes increasingly important for unbiased cosmological analysis. We present and validate a new method for understanding and mitigating both additive and multiplicative systematics in galaxy clustering measurements (two-point function) by joint inference of contaminants in the galaxy overdensity field (one-point function) using a maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE). We test this methodology with Kilo-Degree Survey-like mock galaxy catalogues and synthetic systematic template maps. We estimate the cosmological impact of such mitigation by quantifying uncertainties and possible biases in the inferred relationship between the observed and the true galaxy clustering signal. Our method robustly corrects the clustering signal to the sub-percent level and reduces numerous additive and multiplicative systematics from 1.5σ to less than 0.1σ for the scenarios we tested. In addition, we provide an empirical approach to identifying the functional form (additive, multiplicative, or other) by which specific systematics contaminate the galaxy number density. Even though this approach is tested and geared towards systematics contaminating the galaxy number density, the methods can be extended to systematics mitigation for other two-point correlation measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effect of threshold parameters on infrared segmentation methods for porosity detection in electron beam powder bed fusion

In-situ process monitoring has seen significant interest in additive manufacturing to address qualification and certification goals. This is especially prevalent in metal powder bed fusion processes such as electron beam powder bed fusion (PBF-EB), with layer-wise infrared imaging being commonly used to detect defects. Here, this work compares two different segmentation methods (static thresholding and statistical thresholding) used for detecting porosity from in-situ infrared imaging data for PBF-EB. Samples were manufactured at a variety of focus offset values to induce porosity. Then, the segmented infrared images were compared to ex-situ X-ray computed tomography scans, which served as a ground-truth reference for objective evaluation. Through this analysis framework, the influential parameters, static threshold and N-value (number of standard deviations above the mean pixel value), respectively, for both image segmentation methods were analyzed and compared for their effects on porosity detection. With optimal parameter settings, the two methods had similar porosity detection performance, but the statistical method performed better under a larger variety of parameter settings.

Infrared imaging↗
DOE OSTI2025

The development and application of the stirred‐reactor coupon analysis (SRCA) test method

A new technique, termed the stirred‐reactor coupon analysis (SRCA) method, has been developed to measure the rate of glass dissolution in forward‐rate conditions. Monolithic glass coupons are partially masked with an inert material before placement in a large volume of well‐mixed solution with known chemistry and temperature for a predetermined duration. After the test, the mask is removed, and the difference in step height between the protected area and the exposed corroded portions of the sample coupon is measured to determine the extent of glass dissolution. The step height is converted to a rate measurement using the test duration and glass density. Test parameters such as sample surface preparation and test duration were evaluated to determine their effects on the measured rates. Additionally, results from an interlaboratory study (ILS) consisting of 12 laboratories from 11 different institutions are presented, where each laboratory performed 12 independent tests. When removing experimental outlier data, the 95% reproducibility limits for the SRCA method has no statistical difference with previously published standardized test methods used to determine the forward rate of glass dissolution. Overall, this paper describes steps necessary to perform the test method and provides the statistical calculations to evaluate test accuracy.

chemical durability↗
NASA NTRS1995

A pseudo-sound constitutive relationship for the dilatational covariances in compressible turbulence: An analytical theory

The mathematical consequences of a few simple scaling assumptions about the effects of compressibility are explored using a simple singular perturbation idea and the methods of statistical fluid mechanics. Representations for the pressure-dilation and dilatational dissipation covariances appearing in single-point moment closures for compressible turbulence are obtained. While the results are expressed in the context of a second-order statistical closure they provide some interesting and very clear physical metaphors for the effects of compressibility that have not been seen using more traditional linear stability methods. In the limit of homogeneous turbulence with quasi-normal large-scales the expressions derived are - in the low turbulent Mach number limit - asymptotically exact. The expressions obtained are functions of the rate of change of the turbulence energy, its correlation length scale, and the relative time scale of the cascade rate. The expressions for the dilatational covariances contain constants which have a precise and definite physical significance; they are related to various integrals of the longitudinal velocity correlation. The pressure-dilation covariance is found to be a nonequilibrium phenomena related to the time rate of change of the internal energy and the kinetic energy of the turbulence. Also of interest is the fact that the representation for the dilatational dissipation in turbulence, with or without shear, features a dependence on the Reynolds number. This article is a documentation of an analytical investigation of the implications of a pseudo-sound theory for the effects of compressibility.

Ristorcelli, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Validation of chemistry models employed in a particle simulation method

The chemistry models employed in a statistical particle simulation method, as implemented in the Intel iPSC/860 multiprocessor computer, are validated and applied. Chemical relaxation of five-species air in these reservoirs involves 34 simultaneous dissociation, recombination, and atomic-exchange reactions. The reaction rates employed in the analytic solutions are obtained from Arrhenius experimental correlations as functions of temperature for adiabatic gas reservoirs in thermal equilibrium. Favorable agreement with the analytic solutions validates the simulation when applied to relaxation of O2 toward equilibrium in reservoirs dominated by dissociation and recombination, respectively, and when applied to relaxation of air in the temperature range 5000 to 30,000 K. A flow of O2 over a circular cylinder at high Mach number is simulated to demonstrate application of the method to multidimensional reactive flows.

Haas, Brian L.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Recent Developments in Tolerancing Methods for Imaging Spectrometers

We discuss detailed tolerancing methods developed for imaging spectrometers at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology using the Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) imaging spectrometer as an illustrative example. We tolerance five metrics simultaneously: along-track response function, cross-track response function, spectral response function, spectral centroid uniformity, and spatial centroid uniformity. A method to calculate tolerancing sensitivities for each metric directly, a method to statistically combine Monte Carlo files from multiple tolerancing runs, and an example summary error budgets that communicate the key and driving tolerances for each metric are discussed. These methods facilitate rapid and semi-automated assessment of the predicted performance of imaging spectrometer systems from design through to assembly and launch life cycle, using metrics that are directly relevant to the extraction of accurate spectroscopic data from these instruments.

Mouroulis, Pantazis↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating downscaled products with expected hydroclimatic co-variances

Abstract. There has been widespread adoption of downscaled products amongst practitioners and stakeholders to ascertain risk from climate hazards at the local scale (e.g., ∼ 5 km resolution). Such products must nevertheless be consistent with physical laws to be credible and of value to users. Here we evaluate statistically and dynamically downscaled products by examining local co-evolution of downscaled temperature and precipitation during convective and frontal precipitation events (two mechanisms testable with just temperature and precipitation). We find that two widely used statistical downscaling techniques (Localized Constructed Analogs version 2, LOCA2, and Seasonal Trends and Analysis of Residuals Empirical Statistical Downscaling Model, STAR-ESDM) generally preserve expected co-variances during convective precipitation events over the historical and future projected intervals as compared to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) and two observation-based data products (Livneh and nClimGrid-Daily). However, both techniques dampen future intensification of frontal precipitation that is otherwise robustly captured in global climate models (i.e., prior to downscaling) and with process-based dynamical downscaling across five different regional climate models. In the case of LOCA2, this leads to appreciable underestimation of future frontal precipitation event intensity. This study is one of the first to quantify a likely ramification of the stationarity assumption underlying statistical downscaling methods and identify a phenomenon where projections of future change diverge depending on data production method employed. Finally, our work proposes expected co-variances during convective and frontal precipitation as useful evaluation diagnostics that can be universally applied to a wide range of statistically downscaled products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nonparametric Multiparticle Set Methods for Interpreting Environmental Samples

Collection and analysis of environmental samples is commonly used by a range of stakeholders in nuclear safeguards and security contexts. While the ubiquity of samples and their transport in the environment allow regular collection, developing and demonstrating methods for analyzing these samples is difficult. In this work, an environmental sample consists of a set of one or more individual particles. Recent advances in reactor simulation have allowed us to generate data that are more representative of real-world environmental samples, enabling statistically defensible method development and testing. The most notable of these advances is a drastic increase in the number of material depletion regions, which allows our simulations to capture the variation in isotopic composition seen at length scales consistent with environmental samples. Traditional approaches for handling multiparticle samples treat each particle in the sample individually, estimating the quantity of interest (e.g., core-average burnup) resulting from measurement and analysis of signatures (e.g., nuclide assays) from each individual particle. Individual estimates are then averaged to generate a single estimate of the quantity of interest over the entire sample. In this presentation, we introduce two novel approaches for interpreting environmental samples that comprise of multiple particles: (1) the Quantile-Quantile Comparator, which uses a multivariate generalization of quantile-quantile plots for comparing unknown statistical distributions, and (2) the Set Transformer, an attention-based neural network module designed to model interactions among elements (particles) in the input set (sample). Statistically representative sampling cannot be guaranteed as samples are passively collected and are beholden to what particles are available in the environment. These new analysis methods for set-input problems are expected to be more robust than traditional approaches to issues of sampling bias where particles are not uniformly distributed throughout regions of interest, as well as generally outperform traditional approaches by jointly considering all elements in the set. We will present results comparing the performance of traditional single particle approaches and the novel Quantile-Quantile Comparator and Set Transformer for interpretation of simulated environmental samples.

Phathanapirom, Birdy↗