Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Statistical methods”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Describing Point Defect Topology in 2D Energy Materials through Computer Vision

Point defects such as vacancies and impurity atoms strongly impact the performance of 2D materials. Traditional efforts often rely on manual detection, a process that is time-intensive, prone to human error, and challenging to scale. Here we leverage machine learning (ML) methods to identify and quantify vacancies within 2D transition metal carbides (Ti3C2, MXenes), aiming to expedite detection while improving accuracy. MXenes exhibit valuable defect-defined electrochemical properties, but we currently lack statistical understanding of defect topology needed to fully harness these materials. Here we employ a convolutional neural network for semantic segmentation of experimental MXene images, opening an opportunity to conduct a rigorous statistical study on defect hierarchy while investigating local relaxation in the lattice. We show how the integration of ML can yield fundamental insight into point defects, providing a powerful tool that will play an increasingly crucial role in the future of materials science.

2d materials↗
DOE OSTI2026

Correlated purification for restoring 𝑁-representability in quantum simulation

Experimentally measured reduced density matrices (RDMs) often violate constraints that ensure they represent N-electron states—known as N-representability conditions—because of statistical and hardware noise. In this work, we present a correlated purification framework based on semidefinite programming to restore the accuracy of a noisy, unphysical two-electron RDM (2-RDM). The method performs a bi-objective optimization that minimizes both the many-electron energy and the nuclear norm of the correction to the measured 2-RDM. The nuclear norm, often employed in matrix completion, promotes low-rank corrections, while the energy term acts as a regularization term that can improve the purity of the ground state. While the method is particularly effective for ground states, it can also be applied to excited and nonstationary states by decreasing the weight of the energy relative to the error norm. In an application to fermionic shadow tomography of large hydrogen chains, correlated purification yields substantial reductions in both energy and 2-RDM error, achieving chemical accuracy across dissociation curves. This framework provides a robust strategy for tomography in many-body quantum simulations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sparsity-Independent Lyapunov Exponent in the Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev Model

The saturation of a recently proposed universal bound on the Lyapunov exponent has been conjectured to signal the existence of a gravity dual. This saturation occurs in the low-temperature limit of the dense Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev (SYK) model, N Majorana fermions with q body ( q > 2 ) infinite-range interactions. We calculate certain out-of-time-order correlators (OTOCs) for N ≤ 64 fermions for a highly sparse SYK model and find no significant dependence of the Lyapunov exponent on sparsity up to near the percolation limit where the Hamiltonian breaks up into blocks. This provides strong support to the saturation of the Lyapunov exponent in the low-temperature limit of the sparse SYK. A key ingredient to reaching N = 64 is the development of a novel quantum spin model simulation library that implements highly optimized matrix-free Krylov subspace methods on graphical processing units. This leads to a significantly lower simulation time as well as vastly reduced memory usage over previous approaches, while using modest computational resources. Strong sparsity-driven statistical fluctuations require both the use of a much larger number of disorder realizations with respect to the dense limit and a careful finite size scaling analysis. The saturation of the bound in the sparse SYK points to the existence of a gravity analog that would enlarge substantially the number of field theories with this feature. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Anomalous electroweak physics unraveled via evidential deep learning

The ever-growing ecosystem of beyond standard model (BSM) calculations and parametrizations has motivated the development of systematic methods for making quantitative cross-comparisons over the wide range of possible models, especially with controllable uncertainties. In this setting, the language of uncertainty quantification (UQ) furnishes useful metrics for assessing statistical overlaps and discrepancies among BSM and related models. In this study, we leverage recent machine learning (ML) developments in evidential deep learning (EDL) for UQ to separate data (aleatoric) and knowledge (epistemic) uncertainties in a model-discrimination setting. We construct several potentially BSM-motivated scenarios for the anomalous electroweak interaction (AEWI) of neutrinos with nucleons in deep inelastic scattering ( v DIS). These scenarios are then quantitatively mapped, as a demonstration, alongside Monte Carlo replicas of the CT18 PDFs used to calculate the $\varDelta \chi ^{2}$ statistic for a typical multi-GeV v DIS experiment, CDHSW. Our framework effectively highlights areas of model agreement and provides a classification of out-of-distribution (OOD) samples. By offering the opportunity to quantitatively understand model overlaps, the approach presented in this work can help facilitate efficient BSM model exploration and exclusion for future New Physics searches.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2026

From Rules to Reasoning: A Survey of Large Language Model-Based Approaches to Scientific Hypothesis and Idea Generation

Scientific hypothesis generation represents a fundamental challenge in contemporary research due to exponentially expanding literature volumes and increasing disciplinary specialization. Large language models (LLMs) have emerged as transformative tools for automated scientific discovery, moving beyond traditional rule-based and literature-mining approaches. Four paradigmatic approaches define current LLM-driven hypothesis generation: direct prompting and fine-tuning methods, knowledge-enhanced frameworks integrating retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), multi-agent collaborative systems simulating research teams, and reasoning-focused approaches implementing cognitive architectures. Domain-specific applications demonstrate statistical equivalence to human expert performance in social psychology, experimental validation in biomedical research, and near-expert quality in astronomy. Evaluation methodologies encompass human expert assessment, LLM-as-judge frameworks, and comprehensive benchmarking systems. Technical challenges include hallucination management, knowledge integration limitations, and balancing novelty with feasibility. Future directions emphasize hybrid neural-symbolic architectures and sophisticated human-AI collaboration models for responsible scientific discovery acceleration.

AI-driven discovery↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Laboratory and Field Arrays (ALFA)/Lab Collaboration Project (LCP) for Marine Energy (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The objective of the Advanced Laboratory and Field Arrays (ALFA) project was to reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of Marine and Hydrokinetic (MHK) energy by leveraging research, development, and testing capabilities at Oregon State University, University of Washington, and the University of Alaska, Fairbanks. ALFA is a project within the Pacific Marine Energy Center (PMEC; formerly NNMREC), a multi-institution entity with a diverse funding base that focuses on research and development for marine renewables. The ALFA project aimed to accelerate the development of next-generation arrays of wave energy conversion (WEC) and tidal energy conversion (TEC) devices through a suite of field-focused R&D activities spanning a broad range of strategic opportunity areas identified in the Funding Opportunity Announcement: • Device and/or array operation and maintenance (O&M) logistics development; • High-fidelity resource characterization and/or modeling technique development and validation; • Array-specific component technology development (e.g. moorings and foundations, transmission, and other offshore grid components); • Array performance testing and evaluation; and • Novel cost-effective environmental monitoring techniques and instrumentation testing and evaluation. The objective of the Lab Collaboration Project (LCP) was to accelerate the development of next-generation marine energy conversion systems. The LCP aimed to achieve these project objectives in collaboration with the national laboratories by: • Developing concept generation and assessment tools; • Improving access to existing testing resources; • Validating collision risk models between fish and turbines; and • Advancing analysis and simulation capabilities for wave-WEC interactions and PTO analysis in nonlinear ocean waves. The ALFA portion of the project was comprised of six overarching technical tasks: • Task 1: Debris Modeling, Detection and Mitigation; • Task 2: Autonomous Monitoring & Intervention; • Task 3: Resource Characterization for Extreme Conditions; • Task 4: Robust Models for Design of Offshore Anchoring and Mooring Systems; • Task 5: Performance Enhancement for Marine Energy Converter (MEC) Arrays; and • Task 6: Evaluating Sampling Techniques for MHK Biological Monitoring. The LCP was divided into four overarching technical tasks: • Task 7: Project Management and Reporting • Task 8: Novel Design and Assessment Methodologies for Wave Energy Converter Design (Wave- SPARC) • Task 9: Testing Access for Commercial Marine Renewable Energy Technology Developers • Task 10: Quantifying Collision Risk for Fish and Turbines • Task 11: Nonlinear Ocean Waves and PTO Control Strategy Each ALFA/LCP task listed above functioned as a separate and discreet project. A final Technical Report was written for each individual task and these reports were uploaded to OSTI, after receiving DOE approval. The following document is a compilation of each of these final, approved reports arranged as individual chapters.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Describing Point Defect Topology in 2D Energy Materials Through Computer Vision

Point defects such as vacancies and impurity atoms strongly impact the performance of 2D materials. Traditional efforts often rely on manual detection, a process that is time-intensive, prone to human error, and challenging to scale. Here we leverage machine learning (ML) methods to identify and quantify vacancies within 2D transition metal carbides (Ti3C2, MXenes), aiming to expedite detection while improving accuracy. MXenes exhibit valuable defect-defined electrochemical properties, but we currently lack statistical understanding of defect topology needed to fully harness these materials. We employ a convolutional neural network for semantic segmentation of experimental MXene images, opening an opportunity to conduct a rigorous statistical study on defect hierarchy while investigating local relaxation in the lattice. We show how the integration of ML can yield fundamental insight into point defects, providing a powerful tool that will play an increasingly crucial role in the future of materials science.

2D materials↗
DOE OSTI2026

Studying MeV Scale Neutron Interactions in DUNE ND-LAr 2x2 Demonstrator

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment designed to make high-precision measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters and probe for new physics using a neutrino beam produced at Fermilab and measured at a near detector complex and a far detector located 1,300 km away at the Sanford Underground Research Facility. Precise neutrino energy reconstruction is essential for these measurements, with neutron production in neutrino–argon interactions representing a significant source of systematic uncertainty, as neutrons can carry away significant energy, making their detection and characterization crucial. DUNE’s near detector complex includes ND-LAr, a Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) detector designed to mirror the far detector technology and constrain neutrino–argon interaction systematics. The DUNE 2x2 Demonstrator, a pixelated LArTPC based on the ArgonCube design, serves as a prototype for ND-LAr. During 2x2 operations from October to November 2026, an Americium–Beryllium (AmBe) neutron source was deployed near the detector cryostat to obtain a high-statistics sample of neutron interactions. This poster presents progress in studying MeV-scale neutron interactions in this dataset by identifying de-excitation gammas from neutron capture on argon, providing a method for neutron identification and charge readout system calibration in future DUNE detectors.

Mao, Edgar [Syracuse U.] (ORCID:0009000600893306)↗
DOE OSTI2025

A convergence metric for counting statistics in time-resolved small angle neutron scattering

Here, this work introduces a model-independent, dimensionless metric for predicting optimal measurement duration in time-resolved small-angle neutron scattering using early-time data. Built on a Gaussian process regression framework, the method reconstructs scattering profiles with quantified uncertainty, even from sparse or noisy measurements. Demonstrated on the EQ-SANS instrument at the Spallation Neutron Source, the approach generalizes to general SANS instruments with a two-dimensional detector. A key result is the discovery of a dimensionless convergence metric revealing a universal power-law scaling in profile evolution across soft matter systems. When time is normalized by a system-specific characteristic time t*, the variation in inferred profiles collapses onto a single curve with an exponent between −2 and −1. This trend emerges within the first ten time steps, enabling early prediction of measurement sufficiency. The method supports real-time experimental optimization and is especially valuable for maximizing efficiency in low-flux environments such as compact accelerator-based neutron sources.

Tung, Chi-Huan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of the absolute branching fraction of the three-body decay Λ c + → Ξ 0 K + π 0 and search for Λ c + → n K + π 0 , Σ 0 K + π 0 , and Λ K + π 0

The Cabbibo-favored decay Λ c + → Ξ 0 K + π 0 is studied for the first time using 6.1 fb − 1 of e + e − collision data at center-of-mass energies between 4.600 and 4.840 GeV, collected with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII collider. With a double-tag method, the branching fraction of the three-body decay Λ c + → Ξ 0 K + π 0 is measured to be ( 7.79 ± 1.46 ± 0.95 ) × 10 − 3 , where the first and second uncertainties are statistical and systematic, respectively. The branching fraction of the two-body decay Λ c + → Ξ ( 1530 ) 0 K + is ( 5.99 ± 1.04 ± 0.32 ) × 10 − 3 , which is consistent with the previous result of ( 5.02 ± 0.99 ± 0.31 ) × 10 − 3 . In addition, the upper limit on the branching fraction of the doubly Cabbibo-suppressed decay Λ c + → n K + π 0 is 7.1 × 10 − 4 at the 90% confidence level. The upper limits on the branching fractions of Λ c + → Σ 0 K + π 0 and Λ K + π 0 are also determined to be 1.8 × 10 − 3 and 2.0 × 10 − 3 , respectively. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Ablikim, M.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Subcellular Feature-Based Classification of α and β Cells Using Soft X-ray Tomography

The dysfunction of α and β cells in pancreatic islets can lead to diabetes. Many questions remain on the subcellular organization of islet cells during the progression of disease. Existing three-dimensional cellular mapping approaches face challenges such as time-intensive sample sectioning and subjective cellular identification. To address these challenges, we have developed a subcellular feature-based classification approach, which allows us to identify α and β cells and quantify their subcellular structural characteristics using soft X-ray tomography (SXT). We observed significant differences in whole-cell morphological and organelle statistics between the two cell types. Additionally, we characterize subtle biophysical differences between individual insulin and glucagon vesicles by analyzing vesicle size and molecular density distributions, which were not previously possible using other methods. These sub-vesicular parameters enable us to predict cell types systematically using supervised machine learning. We also visualize distinct vesicle and cell subtypes using Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) embeddings, which provides us with an innovative approach to explore structural heterogeneity in islet cells. This methodology presents an innovative approach for tracking biologically meaningful heterogeneity in cells that can be applied to any cellular system.

3D cell mapping↗
DOE OSTI2025

Untargeted GC-MS Metabolic Profiling of Anaerobic Gut Fungi Reveals Putative Terpenoids and Strain-Specific Metabolites

Background/Objectives: Anaerobic gut fungi (Neocallimastigomycota) are biotechnologically relevant, lignocellulose-degrading microbes with under-explored biosynthetic potential for secondary metabolites. Untargeted metabolomic profiling with gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS) was applied to two gut fungal strains, Anaeromyces robustus and Caecomyces churrovis, to establish a foundational metabolomic dataset to identify metabolites and provide insights into gut fungal metabolic capabilities. Methods: Gut fungi were cultured anaerobically in rumen-fluid-based media with a soluble substrate (cellobiose), and metabolites were extracted using the Metabolite, Protein, and Lipid Extraction (MPLEx) method, enabling metabolomic and proteomic analysis from the same cell samples. Samples were derivatized and analyzed via GC-MS, followed by compound identification by spectral matching to reference databases, molecular networking, and statistical analyses. Results: Distinct metabolites were identified between A. robustus and C. churrovis, including 2,3-dihydroxyisovaleric acid produced by A. robustus and maltotriitol, maltotriose, and melibiose produced by C. churrovis. C. churrovis may polymerize maltotriose to form an extracellular polysaccharide, like pullulan. GC-MS profiling potentially captured sufficiently volatile products of proteomically detected, putative non-ribosomal peptide synthetases and polyketide synthases of A. robustus and C. churrovis. The triterpene squalene and triterpenoid tetrahymanol were putatively identified in A. robustus and C. churrovis. Their conserved, predicted biosynthetic genes—squalene synthase and squalene tetrahymanol cyclase—were identified in A. robustus, C. churrovis, and other anaerobic gut fungal genera. Conclusions: This study provides a foundational, untargeted metabolomic dataset to unmask gut fungal metabolic pathways and biosynthetic potential and to prioritize future efforts for compound isolation and identification.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anisotropic physics-regularized interpretable machine learning of microstructure evolution

Anisotropic Physics-Regularized Interpretable Machine Learning Microstructure Evolution (APRIMME) is a general-purpose machine learning solution for grain growth simulations. In prior work, PRIMME employed a deep neural network to predict site-specific migration as a function of its neighboring sites to model normal, isotropic, grain growth behavior. This work aims to extend this method by incorporating grain boundary misorientation-based grain growth behavior. APRIMME is trained on anisotropic simulations created using the Monte Carlo-Potts (MCP) model. Furthermore, the results of this work are compared statistically using grain radius, number of sides per grain, mean neighborhood misorientations, and the standard deviation of triple junction dihedral angles, and are found to match in most cases. The exceptions are small and seem to be related to two causes: (1) the deterministic model of APRIMME is learning from the stochastic simulations of MCP, which seems to accentuate triple junction behaviors; and, (2) a bias against very small grains is made evident in a quicker decrease in grains than expected at the beginning of an APRIMME simulation. APRIMME is also evaluated for its general ability to capture anisotropic grain growth behavior by first investigating different test case initial conditions, including a circle grain, three grain, and hexagonal grain microstructures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

How do mirror charge radii constrain density dependence of the symmetry energy?

It has recently been suggested that differences in the charge radii of mirror nuclei (Δ$R^{mirr}_{ch}$) are strongly correlated with the neutron-skin thickness ($R_{skin}$) of neutron-rich nuclei and with the slope of the symmetry energy ($L$). To test this assumption, we present ab initio calculations of $R_{skin}$ in 48 Ca and 208 Pb, Δ$R^{mirr}_{ch}$ in 36 Ca$-$ 36 S, 38 Ca$-$ 38 Ar, 41 Sc$-$ 41 Ca, 48 Ni$-$ 48 Ca, 52 Ni$-$ 52 Cr, and 54 Ni$-$ 54 Fe mirror pairs, and $L$. Employing the recently developed 34 chiral interaction samples, identified by the history matching approach, we conduct rigorous statistical analysis of correlations among Δ$R^{mirr}_{ch}$, $R_{skin}$ and $L$, accounting for quantified uncertainties from low-energy constants of chiral interaction, chiral effective field theory truncation and many-body method approximation. The ab initio results reveal an appreciable Δ$R^{mirr}_{ch}$ $-$ $L$ correlation in $fp$-shell mirror pairs. However, contrary to previous studies, the present calculation finds that the studied $sd$-shell mirror pairs do not exhibit any Δ$R^{mirr}_{ch}$ $-$ $L$ correlation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Coincident learning for unsupervised anomaly detection of scientific instruments

Abstract Anomaly detection is an important task for complex scientific experiments and other complex systems (e.g. industrial facilities, manufacturing), where failures in a sub-system can lead to lost data, poor performance, or even damage to components. While scientific facilities generate a wealth of data, labeled anomalies may be rare (or even nonexistent), and expensive to acquire. Unsupervised approaches are therefore common and typically search for anomalies either by distance or density of examples in the input feature space (or some associated low-dimensional representation). This paper presents a novel approach called coincident learning for anomaly detection (CoAD), which is specifically designed for multi-modal tasks and identifies anomalies based on coincident behavior across two different slices of the feature space. We define an unsupervised metric, F ^ β , out of analogy to the supervised classification F β statistic. CoAD uses F ^ β to train an anomaly detection algorithm on unlabeled data , based on the expectation that anomalous behavior in one feature slice is coincident with anomalous behavior in the other. The method is illustrated using a synthetic outlier data set and a MNIST-based image data set, and is compared to prior state-of-the-art on two real-world tasks: a metal milling data set and our motivating task of identifying RF station anomalies in a particle accelerator.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wave functions of multiquark hadrons from representations of the symmetry groups S n

Construction of the wave functions of multiquark hadrons by a traditional method based on the tensor products of colors, flavors, spins (and orbital) parts becomes quite complex when quark numbers grow n = 5 , 6 … 12 , as it gets difficult to satisfy the requirements of Fermi statistics. Our novel approach is focused directly on representations of the permutation symmetry generators. After showing how C 3 is manifested in the wave functions of (excited) baryons, we use it to construct the wave functions for a set of pentaquarks and hexaquarks ( n = 5 , 6 ). We also have some partial results for larger systems, with n = 9 and 12, and even beyond that as far as n = 24 . Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Miesch, Nicholas (ORCID:0000000205937535)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Red Noise–based False Alarm Thresholds for Astrophysical Periodograms via Whittle’s Approximation to the Likelihood

Astronomers who search for periodic signals using Lomb–Scargle periodograms rely on false alarm level (FAL) estimates to identify statistically significant peaks. Although FALs are often calculated from white noise models, many astronomical time series suffer from red noise. Prewhitening is a statistical technique in which a continuum model is subtracted from the log power spectrum estimate, after which the observer can proceed with a white-noise treatment. Here we present a prewhitening-based method of calculating frequency-dependent FALs. We fit power laws and autoregressive models of order 1 to each Lomb–Scargle periodogram by minimizing the Whittle approximation to the negative log-likelihood (NLL), then calculate FALs based on the best-fit model power spectrum. Our technique is a novel extension of the Whittle NLL to datasets with uneven time sampling. We demonstrate FAL calculations using observations of α Cen B, GJ 581, HD 192310, synthetic data from the radial velocity (RV) fitting challenge, and Kepler observations of a differential rotator. The Kepler data analysis shows that only true rotation signals are detected by red noise FALs, while white noise FALs suggest all spurious peaks in the low-frequency range are significant. A high-frequency sinusoid injected into α Cen B logR$'$ HK observations exceeds the 1% red noise FAL despite having only 8.9% of the power of the dominant rotation signal. In a periodogram of HD 192310 RVs, peaks associated with differential rotation and planets are detected against the 5% red noise FAL without iterative model fitting or subtraction. The software for calculating red noise–based FALs is available on GitHub.

Astrostatistics (1882)↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Profiled Feldman-Cousins Method for Confidence Interval Construction for the Nova 3-Flavor Oscillation Analysis

The small interaction cross-section of neutrinos makes experimental neutrino physics particularly responsive to technological advancements. A significant development leveraged by the NOvA experiment is large-scale parallel processing, enabling novel computational approaches to longstanding experimental challenges. Central to managing the resulting high-throughput data is NOvA’s implementation of the Freight Train model, designed for efficient data production and handling.This dissertation details the methodology and execution of the NOvA 2024 3-Flavor Oscillation Analysis, supported by a comprehensive dataset spanning ten years. It emphasizes frequentist results refined through the Feldman-Cousins (FC) technique, specifically addressing confidence interval corrections in parameter estimation. The computational intensity associated with Feldman-Cousins arises from extensive Monte Carlo simulations, which were substantially mitigated through parallel computing on the Perlmutter supercomputer at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), employing the MPI framework.To further enhance computational efficiency, an Importance Sampling method is introduced and evaluated, demonstrating significant potential to reduce complexity, particularly in exploring extreme parameter space regions. This thesis presents both the successful application of advanced computational resources and the development of sophisticated statistical techniques, aiming to enhance the precision and scope of neutrino oscillation analyses.

Dye ajdye11190@gmail.com, Andrew Joseph [Mississip↗