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At least 523 records · Page 29

Ares I-X Flight Test Validation of Control Design Tools in the Frequency-Domain

A major motivation of the Ares I-X flight test program was to Design for Data, in order to maximize the usefulness of the data recorded in support of Ares I modeling and validation of design and analysis tools. The Design for Data effort was intended to enable good post-flight characterizations of the flight control system, the vehicle structural dynamics, and also the aerodynamic characteristics of the vehicle. To extract the necessary data from the system during flight, a set of small predetermined Programmed Test Inputs (PTIs) was injected directly into the TVC signal. These PTIs were designed to excite the necessary vehicle dynamics while exhibiting a minimal impact on loads. The method is similar to common approaches in aircraft flight test programs, but with unique launch vehicle challenges due to rapidly changing states, short duration of flight, a tight flight envelope, and an inability to repeat any test. This paper documents the validation effort of the stability analysis tools to the flight data which was performed by comparing the post-flight calculated frequency response of the vehicle to the frequency response calculated by the stability analysis tools used to design and analyze the preflight models during the control design effort. The comparison between flight day frequency response and stability tool analysis for flight of the simulated vehicle shows good agreement and provides a high level of confidence in the stability analysis tools for use in any future program. This is true for both a nominal model as well as for dispersed analysis, which shows that the flight day frequency response is enveloped by the vehicle s preflight uncertainty models.

Johnson, Matthew↗

Non-Invasive Tension Measurement Devices for Parachute Cordage

The need for lightweight and non-intrusive tension measurements has arisen alongside the development of high-fidelity computer models of textile and fluid dynamics. In order to validate these computer models, data must be gathered in the operational environment without altering the design, construction, or performance of the test article. Current measurement device designs rely on severing a cord and breaking the load path to introduce a load cell. These load cells are very reliable, but introduce an area of high stiffness in the load path, directly affecting the structural response, adding excessive weight, and possibly altering the dynamics of the parachute during a test. To capture the required data for analysis validation without affecting the response of the system, non-invasive measurement devices have been developed and tested by NASA. These tension measurement devices offer minimal impact to the mass, form, fit, and function of the test article, while providing reliable, axial tension measurements for parachute cordage.

Litteken, Douglas A.↗

Advances in Stereo Photogrammetry Capabilities for in-Situ Ejecta Measurements in Lunar Plume-Surface Interactions

Plume-surface interaction is a critical topic of interest as human spaceflight programs establish a renewed presence on the Moon and push onwards to Mars. The erosion of regolith and high-speed ejection of soil and rocks which occurs during a powered spacecraft landing on lunar or terrestrial bodies can pose serious risks to the vehicle during landing and to existing ground assets. Ground testing campaigns have provided data sets in relevant environments (e.g., low pressure) in tandem with predictive computational model validation. To-date, limited in-situ flight data exists to inform the study of the key phenomena of plume-surface interaction: plume-flow physics, soil erosion, and ejecta dynamics. In two upcoming lunar missions, erosion of the lunar regolith will be measured in-situ using the stereo photogrammetry technique as part of NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) Program. The Stereo Cameras for Lunar Plume Surface Studies (SCALPSS) will use a multiple-camera system to measure the erosion of the lunar regolith due to the vehicles’ rocket engine plumes during descent and after landing. The application of stereo photogrammetry to accurately measure a realistic eroded shape has been validated in laboratory work ahead of the scheduled flights. In preparation for future CLPS, Artemis, or other lunar science missions, recent advancements have been made to measure the ejecta structure and particle dynamics in addition to the erosion of regolith using a SCALPSS-like photogrammetry system. The thickness and ejection angle of entrained soil and dust produced during plume-induced erosion can be used to determine how far debris will travel, and thus how it may impact nearby infrastructure or the landing vehicle itself. The present work highlights the development of this new flight instrumentation capability and its value to advancements in the plume-surface interaction measurement topic for lunar or planetary landings.

Olivia K. Tyrrell↗

The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI). I. Dry Cases—The Fellowship of the GCMs

With the commissioning of powerful, new-generation telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and the ground-based Extremely Large Telescopes, the first characterization of a high molecular weight atmosphere around a temperate rocky exoplanet is imminent. Atmospheric simulations and synthetic observables of target exoplanets are essential to prepare and interpret these observations. Here we report the results of the first part of the TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) project, which compares 3D numerical simulations performed with four state-of-the-art global climate models (ExoCAM, LMD-Generic, ROCKE-3D, Unified Model) for the potentially habitable target TRAPPIST-1e. In this first part, we present the results of dry atmospheric simulations. These simulations serve as a benchmark to test how radiative transfer, subgrid-scale mixing (dry turbulence and convection), and large-scale dynamics impact the climate of TRAPPIST-1e and consequently the transit spectroscopy signature as seen by JWST. To first order, the four models give results in good agreement. The intermodel spread in the global mean surface temperature amounts to 7 K (6 K) for the N2-dominated (CO2-dominated) atmosphere. The radiative fluxes are also remarkably similar (intermodel variations less than 5%), from the surface (1 bar) up to atmospheric pressures ∼5 mbar. Moderate differences between the models appear in the atmospheric circulation pattern (winds) and the (stratospheric) thermal structure. These differences arise between the models from (1) large-scale dynamics, because TRAPPIST-1e lies at the tipping point between two different circulation regimes (fast and Rhines rotators) in which the models can be alternatively trapped, and (2) parameterizations used in the upper atmosphere such as numerical damping.

Martin Turbet↗

Physics-Based Methods of Failure Analysis and Diagnostics in Human Space Flight

The Integrated Health Management (IHM) for the future aerospace systems requires to interface models of multiple subsystems in an efficient and accurate information environment at the earlier stages of system design. The complexity of modern aeronautic and aircraft systems (including e.g. the power distribution, flight control, solid and liquid motors) dictates employment of hybrid models and high-level reasoners for analysing mixed continuous and discrete information flow involving multiple modes of operation in uncertain environments, unknown state variables, heterogeneous software and hardware components. To provide the information link between key design/performance parameters and high-level reasoners we rely on development of multi-physics performance models, distributed sensors networks, and fault diagnostic and prognostic (FD&P) technologies in close collaboration with system designers. The main challenges of our research are related to the in-flight assessment of the structural stability, engine performance, and trajectory control. The main goal is to develop an intelligent IHM that not only enhances components and system reliability, but also provides a post-flight feedback helping to optimize design of the next generation of aerospace systems. Our efforts are concentrated on several directions of the research. One of the key components of our strategy is an innovative approach to the diagnostics/prognostics based on the real time dynamical inference (DI) technologies extended to encompass hybrid systems with hidden state trajectories. The major investments are into the multiphysics performance modelling that provides an access of the FD&P technologies to the main performance parameters of e.g. solid and liquid rocket motors and composite materials of the nozzle and case. Some of the recent results of our research are discussed in this chapter. We begin by introducing the problem of dynamical inference of stochastic nonlinear models and reviewing earlier results. Next, we present our analytical approach to the solution of this problem based on the path integral formulation. The resulting algorithm does not require an extensive global search for the model parameters, provides optimal compensation for the effects of dynamical noise, and is robust for a broad range of dynamical models. In the following Section the strengths of the algorithm are illustrated illustrated by inferring the parameters of the stochastic Lorenz system and comparing the results with those of earlier research. Next, we discuss a number of recent results in application to the development of the IHM for aerospace system. Firstly, we apply dynamical inference approach to a solution of classical three tank problems with mixed unknown continuous and binary parameters. The problem is considered in the context of ground support system for filling fuel tanks of liquid rocket motors. It is shown that the DI algorithm is well suited for successful solution of a hybrid version of this benchmark problem even in the presence of additional periodic and stochastic perturbation of unknown strength. Secondly, we illustrate our approach by its application to an analysis of the nozzle fault in a solid rocket motor (SRM). The internal ballistics of the SRM is modelled as a set of one-dimensional partial differential equations coupled to the dynamics of the propellant regression. In this example we are specifically focussed on the inference of discrete and continuous parameters of the nozzle blocking fault and on the possibility of an application of the DI algorithm to reducing the probability of "misses" of an on-board FD&P for SRM. In the next section re-contact problem caused by first stage/upper stage separation failure is discussed. The reaction forces imposed on the nozzle of the upper stage during the re-contact and their connection to the nozzle damage and to the thrust vector control (TVC) signal are obtained. It is shown that transient impact induced torquean be modelled as a response of an effective damped oscillator. A possible application of the DI algorithm to the inference of damage parameters and predicting fault dynamics ahead of time using the actuator signal is discussed. Finally, we formulate Bayesian inferential framework for development of the IHM system for in-flight structural health monitoring (SHM) of composite materials. We consider the signal generated by piezoelectric actuator mounted on composite structure generating elastic waves in it. The signal received by the sensor is than compared with the baseline signal. The possibility of damage inference is discussed in the context of development of the SHM.

Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.↗

Progression of damage and fracture in composites under dynamic loading

A new computational simulation method is presented to evaluate the dynamic aspects of composite structural response and durability that could not be simulated previously. Composite structural behavior under any loading, geometry, composite system, laminate configuration, and boundary conditions can now be simulated. Structural degradation, delamination, fracture, and damage propagation are included in the simulation. An angle-plied composite plate structure under normal impact loading is used as an example to demonstrate the versatility of the simulation method.

Minnetyan, Levon↗

Factors shaping the evolution of electronic documentation systems

The main goal is to prepare the space station technical and managerial structure for likely changes in the creation, capture, transfer, and utilization of knowledge. By anticipating advances, the design of Space Station Project (SSP) information systems can be tailored to facilitate a progression of increasingly sophisticated strategies as the space station evolves. Future generations of advanced information systems will use increases in power to deliver environmentally meaningful, contextually targeted, interconnected data (knowledge). The concept of a Knowledge Base Management System is emerging when the problem is focused on how information systems can perform such a conversion of raw data. Such a system would include traditional management functions for large space databases. Added artificial intelligence features might encompass co-existing knowledge representation schemes; effective control structures for deductive, plausible, and inductive reasoning; means for knowledge acquisition, refinement, and validation; explanation facilities; and dynamic human intervention. The major areas covered include: alternative knowledge representation approaches; advanced user interface capabilities; computer-supported cooperative work; the evolution of information system hardware; standardization, compatibility, and connectivity; and organizational impacts of information intensive environments.

Dede, Christopher J.↗

Hypervelocity impact simulation for micrometeorite and debris shield design

A new capability has been developed for direct computer simulation of hypervelocity impacts on multi-plate orbital debris shields, for combinations of low shield thickness and wide shield spacing which place extreme demands on conventional Eulerian analysis techniques. The modeling methodology represents a novel approach to debris cloud dynamics simulation, a problem of long term interest in the design of space structures. Software implementation of the modeling methodology provides a new design tool for engineering analysis of proposed orbital debris protection systems.

Fahrenthold, Eric P.↗

The Stellar Imager (SI): An Ultra-High Angular Resolution UV/Optical Observatory

The Stellar Imager (SI) is envisioned as a space-based, UV-optical interferometer composed of 10 or more one-meter class elements distributed with a maximum baseline of 0.5-km and providing a resolution of 60 micro-arcseconds at 1550 A. It will image stars and binaries with one hundred to one thousand resolution elements on their surface and enable long-term studies of stellar magnetic activity patterns and their evolution with time, for comparison with those on the sun. It will also sound their interiors through asteroseismology to image internal structure, differential rotation, and large-scale circulations. SI will enable us to understand the various effects of magnetic fields of stars, the dynamos that generate these fields, and the internal structure and dynamics of the stars in which these dynamos operate. The ultimate goal of the mission is to achieve the best-possible forecasting of solar activity as a driver of climate and space weather on times scales ranging from months up to decades, and an understanding of the impact of stellar magnetic activity on life in the Universe. The road to that goal will revolutionize our understanding of stars and stellar systems, the building blocks of the Universe. Fitting naturally within the NASA and ESA long-term time lines, SI complements defined missions, and with them will show us entire other solar systems, from the central star to their orbiting planets. In this paper we will describe the scientific goals of the mission, the performance requirements needed to address those goals, and the design concepts now under study.

Carpenter, Kenneth G.↗

Monitoring the Microgravity Environment Quality On-board the International Space Station Using Soft Computing Techniques: Preliminary System Performance Results - Part 2

This paper presents the preliminary performance results of the artificial intelligence monitoring system in full operational mode using near real time acceleration data downlinked from the International Space Station. Preliminary microgravity environment characterization analysis result for the International Space Station (Increment-2), using the monitoring system is presented. Also, comparison between the system predicted performance based on ground test data for the US laboratory "Destiny" module and actual on-orbit performance, using measured acceleration data from the U.S. laboratory module of the International Space Station is presented. Finally, preliminary on-orbit disturbance magnitude levels are presented for the Experiment of Physics of Colloids in Space, which are compared with on ground test data. The ground test data for the Experiment of Physics of Colloids in Space were acquired from the Microgravity Emission Laboratory, located at the NASA Glenn Research Center, Cleveland, Ohio. The artificial intelligence was developed by the NASA Glenn Principal Investigator Microgravity Services Project to help the principal investigator teams identify the primary vibratory disturbance sources that are active, at any moment of time, on-board the International Space Station, which might impact the microgravity environment their experiments are exposed to. From the Principal Investigator Microgravity Services' web site, the principal investigator teams can monitor via a dynamic graphical display, implemented in Java, in near real time, which event(s) is/are on, such as crew activities, pumps, fans, centrifuges, compressor, crew exercise, structural modes, etc., and decide whether or not to run their experiments, whenever that is an option, based on the acceleration magnitude and frequency sensitivity associated with that experiment. This monitoring system detects primarily the vibratory disturbance sources. The system has built-in capability to detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance sources. Several soft computing techniques such as Kohonen's Self-Organizing Feature Map, Learning Vector Quantization, Back-Propagation Neural Networks, and Fuzzy Logic were used to design the system.

Jules, Kenol↗

Vibration Modal Characterization of a Stirling Convertor via Base-Shake Excitation

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Lockheed Martin (LM), Stirling Technology Company (STC), and NASA John H. Glenn Research Center (GRC) are currently developing a high-efficiency Stirling convertor for use in a Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG). NASA and DOE have identified the SRG for potential use as an advanced power system for future NASA Space Science missions, providing spacecraft onboard electric power for deep space missions and power for unmanned Mars rovers. Low-level, baseshake sine vibration tests were conducted on the Stirling Technology Demonstration Convertor (TDC), at NASA GRC's Structural Dynamics Laboratory, in February 2001, as part of the development of this Stirling technology. The purpose of these tests was to provide a better understanding of the TDC's internal dynamic response to external vibratory base excitations. The knowledge obtained can therein be used to help explain the success that the TDC enjoyed in its previous random vibration qualification tests (December 1999). This explanation focuses on the TDC s internal dynamic characteristics in the 50 to 250 Hz frequency range, which corresponds to the maximum input levels of its qualification random vibration test specification. The internal dynamic structural characteristics of the TDC have now been measured in two separate tests under different motoring and dynamic loading conditions: (1) with the convertor being electrically motored, under a vibratory base-shake excitation load, and (2) with the convertor turned off, and its alternator internals undergoing dynamic excitation via hammer impact loading. This paper addresses the test setup, procedure and results of the base-shake vibration testing conducted on the motored TDC, and will compare these results with those results obtained from the dynamic impact tests (May 2001) on the nonmotored TDC.

Suarez, Vicente J.↗

Electromagnetics and Fluid Dynamics

Previous efforts focused on developing tools for design of low observables were sustained. The final product was the maturation of a high-order accurate finite-volume based code to solve Maxwell's equations. One of the primary achievements was the development and implementation of efficient filtering techniques which enhance the robustness of high-order and optimized schemes without significant adverse impact on accuracy. This has eliminated the stability barrier which restrains the common use of high-order schemes for conservative wave propagation phenomena on curvilinear meshes. A study was performed of crossing shock interactions under conditions of increasing interaction strength and asymmetry. In the first category, the observed computed topological bifurcations were correlated with the formation of various lines of coalescence and divergence evident in experimental and computed surf-ace oil maps. ne flow structure arising from asymmetric interactions was investigated with particular emphasis on: 1) vorticity dynamics, 2) shock-structure and 3) sidewall vortex loading. Several efforts of the prior year were successfully published in archival journals. The high-order algorithms developed for CEM have been implemented into the FDL3DI CFD code are presently undergoing extensive testing. Preliminary results are highly encouraging.

Gaitonde, Datta↗

Structural Evolution and Photoluminescence Quenching across the FASnI 3– x Br x ( x = 0–3) Perovskites

One of the primary methods for band gap tuning in metal halide perovskites has been halide (I/Br) mixing. Despite widespread usage of this type of chemical substitution in perovskite photovoltaics, there is still little understanding of the structural impacts of halide alloying, with the assumption being the formation of ideal solid solutions. The FASnI 3–x Br x (x = 0–3) family of compounds provides the first example where the assumption breaks down, as the composition space is broken into two unique regimes (x = 0–2.9; x = 2.9–3) based on their average structure with the former having a 3D and the latter having an extended 3D (pseudo 0D) structure. Pair distribution function (PDF) analyses further suggest a dynamic 5s 2 lone pair expression resulting in increasing levels of off-centering of the central Sn as the Br concentration is increased. These antiferroelectric distortions indicate that even the x = 0–2.9 phase space behaves as a nonideal solid-solution on a more local scale. Solid-state NMR confirms the difference in local structure yielding greater insight into the chemical nature and local distributions of the FA + cation. In contrast to the FAPbI 3–x Br x series, a drastic photoluminescence (PL) quenching is observed with x ≥ 1.9 compounds having no observable PL. In conclusion, our detailed studies attribute this quenching to structural transitions induced by the distortions of the [SnBr 6 ] octahedra in response to stereochemically expressed lone pairs of electrons. This is confirmed through density functional theory, having a direct impact on the electronic structure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Structural Studies of Alloyed and Nanoparticle Transition Metal Dichalcogenides by Selenium-77 Solid-State Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy

Layered transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDCs) such as MoS 2 , MoSe 2 , and WSe 2 are under intense investigation because they are atomically thin semiconductors with photophysical properties that can be tuned by changing their composition or morphology. Mechanochemical processing has been proposed as a method to obtain alloyed TMDCs in the series Mo 1–x W x S y Se 2–y (x = 0–1; y = 0–2). However, elucidating the chemical transformations occurring at the atomic scale following mechanochemical processing can be challenging because the products are often amorphous or microcrystalline. To address this challenge, we probe TMDC mixing and alloying by using a combination of powder X-ray diffraction, Raman spectroscopy, diffuse reflectance spectroscopy, 77 Se solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (SSNMR) spectroscopy, and planewave density functional theory (DFT) calculations. The nature of the milling material and reaction atmosphere are shown to be essential factors in limiting the formation of undesired oxide byproducts. We demonstrate acquisition of 77 Se SSNMR spectra using different combinations of Carr-Purcell Meiboom-Gill acquisition (CPMG) pulse sequences, magic angle spinning (MAS), and MAS dynamic nuclear polarization. Further, the combination of SSNMR with the other characterization methods clearly demonstrates that high energy impact ball milling induces molecular level alloying of Mo, W and chalcogen atoms in the family Mo 1–x W x S y Se 2–y . Gauge including projector augmented wave DFT calculations yield accurate 77 Se chemical shift (CS) tensor components. 77 Se SSNMR spectroscopy was also applied to study the structure of WSe 2 nanocrystals intercalated with ethylenediamine. The intercalated WSe 2 nanocrystals exhibit a more positive isotropic 77 Se CS as compared to bulk WSe 2 , however, the 77 Se CS anisotropy is the same, confirming the WSe 2 layers have a similar structure as in their bulk counterparts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Progression of damage and fracture in composites under dynamic loading

A new computational simulation method is presented to evaluate the dynamic aspects of composite structural response and durability that have not been simulated previously. Composite structural behavior under any loading condition, geometry, composite system, laminate configuration, and boundary conditions can now be simulated. Structural degradation, delamination, fracture, and damage propagation are included in the simulation. An angle-plied composite plate structure under normal impact loading is used as an example to demonstrate the versatility of the simulation method.

Minnetyan, Levon↗

Summary of activities

Four space projects' activities are summarized. Design work on the Mars Penetrator Project, in cooperation with the NASA Ames Research Center, is being continued. Efforts are focused on the drilling mechanism which must penetrate the martian subsurface soil to collect and retrieve an uncontaminated sample. The new design consists of a rotary-percussive drill mechanism. This mechanism is optimum for dry drilling, necessary to avoid contamination of the soil sample, in many different soil types. The need for a small, relatively inexpensive device to study the chemical structure of this martian soil was also established. The egg design was chosen for its low cost compared to other systems and potential for a large number of eggs to be deployed on the martian surface. The design process included analysis of the dynamics of reentry, dissipation of heat during reentry, impact with the surface, access to undisturbed soil samples, and ability to gather samples from the soil at three depths. The egg consists of the reentry systems, soil probe lifting system, soil probe package, gas chromatograph, transmitter, and battery power supply. The egg must function only once, but is designed to withstand one martian year. The Mars Mole is designed as a rover-based device which penetrates the martian soil to a depth of up to 10 m, obtains a sample of soil, and returns it to the surface for analysis. The mole was designed to meet the following specifications: (1) weight less than 10 kg; (2) size less than 20 x 20 x 30 cm; (3) power less than 100 W; (4) ability to obtain a sample of at least 5 cc; (5) ability to penetrate fine, loose sand; and (6) need to obtain at least one sample. The space station umbilical connector project is a device which provides the translational motion of the connectors on the Space Station Freedom to allow engagement for power and data transfer. The design is capable of delivering a 20 lb force within the necessary tolerances and will operate reliably in the space environment.

Source record↗

Stellar Imager (SI): Enhancements to the Mission Enabled by the Constellation Architecture (Ares I/Ares V)

Stellar Imager (SI) is a space-based, UV/Optical Interferometer (UVOI) with over 200x the resolution of HST. It will enable 0.1 milli-aresec spectral imaging of stellar surfaces and the Universe in general and open an enormous new "discovery space" for astrophysics with its combination of high angular resolution, dynamic imaging , and spectral energy resolution. SI's goal is to study the role of magnetism in the Universe and revolutionize our understanding of 1) Solar/Stellar Magnetic Activity and their impact on Space Weather, Planetary Climates, and Life, 2) Magnetic and Accretion Processes and their roles in the Origin & Evolution of Structure and in the Transport of Matter throughout the Universe, 3) the close-in structure of Active Galactic Nuclei and their winds, and 4) Exo-Solar Planet Transits and Disks. SI is a "Landmark-Discovery Mission" in 2005 Heliophysics Roadmap and a candidate UVOI in the 2006 Astrophysics Strategic Plan and is targeted for launch in the mid-2020's. It is a NASA Vision Mission and has been recommended for further study in a 2008 NRC report on missions potentially enabled/enhanced by an Ares V launch. In this paper, we discuss the science goals and required capabilities of SI, the baseline architecture of the mission assuming launch on one or more Delta rockets, and then the potential significant enhancements to the SI science and mission architecture that would be made possible by a launch in the larger volume Ares V payload fairing, and by servicing options under consideration in the Constellation program.

Carpenter, Kenneth G.↗

Probability Bounds Analysis Applied to Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle Nonlinearity

The Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Program Orion vehicle finite element model (FEM) was updated based on a modal test performed by Lockheed Martin. Due to nonlinearity observed in the test results, linear low force level (LL) and high force level (HL) FEMs were developed for use during various Space Launch System (SLS) flight regimes depending on expected forcing levels. Uncertainty models were derived for the combined MPCV and MPCV Stage Adaptor LL and HL Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) components based on the MPCV structural test article Configuration 4 modal test-analysis correlation results. Subsequently, system-level uncertainty quantification analyses were performed using both models for various SLS flight configurations to determine the impact of the nonlinearity on important system metrics. The system metrics included both transfer functions associated with attitude control and dynamic loads associated with aerodynamic buffeting during ascent. In each case, an independent Monte Carlo (MC) analysis was performed, and no attempt was made to combine the results. The Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) method was used to develop the LL and HL MPCV HCB uncertainty models. The HPV method provides both parametric and non-parametric components of uncertainty. The non-parametric uncertainty accounts for the difference in model-form between the linearized analytical model and the corresponding linearized component test results in the form of mode shapes and frequencies at that force level. This linear model-form uncertainty is implemented in the HPV method using random matrix theory. However, the HPV uncertainty models developed for the linear LL and HL MPCV components do not account for the nonlinearity in the MPCV. With respect to the linearized models, this nonlinearity is also an uncertainty in model form, but in this case, it must be treated independently as an epistemic uncertainty. It represents a lack of knowledge, in contrast to an aleatory uncertainty due to the randomness of a variable. In the case of an epistemic variable, the true value is unknown, only the interval within which it lies is known. Epistemic uncertainty can be reduced with increased knowledge, while in general, aleatory uncertainty cannot. This work combines the epistemic uncertainty due to the MPCV nonlinearity with the parametric and non-parametric uncertainty within the HPV method using a second order propagation approach. The LL and HL test data is augmented with surrogate test data derived from a nonlinear MPCV representation. The impact of the MPCV nonlinearity on system response statistics is determined using a series of cumulative distribution functions in the form of a horsetail plot, or p-box. This results in an interval of probabilities for a specific response value, or an interval of response values at a specific probability.

Daniel C Kammer↗