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DOE OSTI2025

A Semi-supervised Hybrid Machine Learning Framework for the Qualification of Resistance Spot Welds

• Industries requiring high structural integrity, including automotive, aerospace, and construction, place considerable significance on weld quality classification. • The inspection normally involves human expertise through predefined quality metrics that are subjective, error-prone, and time-intensive • The challenge to classification model development is the scarcity of labeled data and imbalanced distributions in the data that are labeled. • This work develops a new hybrid methodology that achieves clustering using KMeans++ together with supervised classification to overcome these challenges. • The ensemble-based classifiers were identified as optimal, with accuracy enhancements of up to 8% using the pseudo-labeled dataset. • The work provides practical insight into feature engineering and machine learning integration in industrial quality assurance applications.

Rogers, Jeremy K. [Savannah River National Laborat↗

DOE OSTI2026

Introduction to and comparison of deep learning and optimization approaches to analytical wake modeling of a tilted wind turbine

This paper introduces innovative optimization and deep learning techniques to enhance the prediction of complex wake dynamics in the downstream wind velocity of tilted wind turbines. Traditional methods for calibrating the Bastankhah wake model often lead to increased errors in wind velocity distribution due to overfitting of the local wake characteristics. To address this issue, we propose an additional global optimization step to reduce errors in wind velocity predictions with respect to various wake parameters. Despite this improvement, the Bastankhah model's axisymmetric Gaussian wake shape limits its accuracy for complex wake structures. Therefore, we also propose a deep learning approach, which demonstrates promising results by accurately modeling complex wake shapes across a broader range of tilt angles with minimal computational cost. The deep learning approach achieves near-identical predictions to high-fidelity large-eddy simulations, representing a promising advancement in wake modeling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Process-Based Balance-of-System Cost Modeling for Offshore Wind Power Plants in the United States: Preprint

This work describes the development of a process based and open source balance of system cost model which provides the capability to evaluate both existing and novel offshore wind technologies. Individual design and installation steps are represented with bottom-up engineering models that compute the times and costs associated with the process; furthermore, operational constraints are assigned to each process so that delays due to weather and presence of marine mammals may be accounted for in the overall project timeline. The model structure, assumptions, inputs, and results are vetted with industry partners and compared against actual projects for validation; installation times are shown to agree with real data with relative errors of less than 35\%. Case studies are presented to demonstrate the functionality of the model. First, individual vessel efficiencies are computed for varying numbers of installation vessels and weather time series to show the diminishing returns of more than two feeder barges. Then, array cable capital costs and installation times are determined for a representative project with different turbine sizes. This quantifies the cost benefit tradeoffs of decreasing number of turbines, increased turbine spacing, and fewer turbine terminations and shows a net cost savings. These results demonstrate that the BOS model features the accuracy, functionality, and accessibility to serve as the foundation for a wide range of analyses to identify cost reduction potentials for offshore wind energy in the United States.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ensemble Effects on Hydroxide Bond Dissociation Free Energies in Polyoxovanadate Clusters

Understanding structure-property relationships is foundational to numerous modern chemistries, such as proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET). However, an experimentally measured property is the result of the behavior from an ensemble of molecules. Neglecting ensemble effects, especially under complex chemical environments, may obfuscate these relationships and lead to discrepancies between theory and experiment. In this work, we demonstrate the impact of configurational entropy and local chemical environments on hydroxide bond dissociation free energies [BDFE- (O−H)] for a set of polyoxovanadate nanoclusters, at ambient conditions. The O−H bond strengths are investigated via density functional theory (DFT) coupled with statistical thermodynamic analysis and bilinear modeling, and compared with previous experimental results on the same systems, namely electrochemical solutions of: [V 6 O 13−x (OH) x (TRIOL R ) 2 ] −2 (x = 2, 4, 6; R = NO 2 , Me) and [V 6 O 11−x (OMe) 2 (OH) x (TRIOL NO 2 ) 2 ] −2 (x = 2, 4). Interestingly, we find that ensemble effects, even at room temperature, can account for a significant portion of the BDFE(O−H) trend with the degree of reduction via H atom binding, which cannot be fully captured by single-structure, static DFT calculations. Moreover, we find that the ensemble effects may be replicated statistically, requiring only enumeration of energetically accessible H-binding sites. With the ensemble effects resolved, we present a simple bilinear model to reconcile remaining biases between experiment and ensemble-informed theory, which corelate with clusterspecific electronic environment differences. The bilinear model achieves outstanding accuracy vs experiments with a root-mean squared error of 0.4 kcal/mol. Finally, based on the physicochemical characteristics of hydrogen interaction with polyoxometalates, we present a simple methodology that captures the BDFE(O−H) trend while dramatically reducing required DFT calculations by 98% and achieving accuracy within 1 kcal/mol. Overall, this work elucidates the roles and structural origins of configurational entropy and chemical effects on polyoxometalate hydroxide bond energies, with potential applicability to various atomically precise metal oxide systems. Importantly, it introduces models for rapid and highly accurate property calculations in connection with experiments.

Cluster chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2019

Backflow Transformations via Neural Networks for Quantum Many-Body Wave Functions

Obtaining an accurate ground state wave function is one of the great challenges in the quantum many-body problem. In this Letter, we propose a new class of wave functions, neural network backflow (NNB). Here, the backflow approach, pioneered originally by Feynman and Cohen [Phys. Rev. 102, 1189 (1956)], adds correlation to a mean-field ground state by transforming the single-particle orbitals in a configuration-dependent way. NNB uses a feed-forward neural network to learn the optimal transformation via variational Monte Carlo calculations. NNB directly dresses a mean-field state, can be systematically improved, and directly alters the sign structure of the wave function. It generalizes the standard backflow [L. F. Tocchio et al., Phys. Rev. B 78, 041101(R) (2008)], which we show how to explicitly represent as a NNB. We benchmark the NNB on Hubbard models at intermediate doping, finding that it significantly decreases the relative error, restores the symmetry of both observables and single-particle orbitals, and decreases the double-occupancy density. Finally, we illustrate interesting patterns in the weights and bias of the optimized neural network.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Fast and Accurate Predictions of Total Energy for Solid Solution Alloys with Graph Convolutional Neural Networks

We use graph convolutional neural networks (GCNNs) to produce fast and accurate predictions of the total energy of solid solution binary alloys. GCNNs allow us to abstract the lattice structure of a solid material as a graph, whereby atoms are modeled as nodes and metallic bonds as edges. This representation naturally incorporates information about the structure of the material, thereby eliminating the need for computationally expensive data pre-processing which would be required with standard neural network (NN) approaches. We train GCNNs on ab-initio density functional theory (DFT) for copper-gold (CuAu) and iron-platinum (FePt) data that has been generated by running the LSMS-3 code, which implements a locally self-consistent multiple scattering method, on OLCF supercomputers Titan and Summit. GCNN outperforms the ab-initio DFT simulation by orders of magnitude in terms of computational time to produce the estimate of the total energy for a given atomic configuration of the lattice structure. We compare the predictive performance of GCNN models against a standard NN such as dense feedforward multi-layer perceptron (MLP) by using the root-mean-squared errors to quantify the predictive quality of the deep learning (DL) models. We find that the attainable accuracy of GCNNs is at least an order of magnitude better than that of the MLP.

Lupo Pasini, Massimiliano↗

DOE OSTI2021

Melt Pool and Heat Treatment Optimization for the Fabrication of High-Strength and High-Toughness Additively Manufactured 4340 Steel

Additively manufactured (AM) components offer superior design flexibility compared to their conventionally manufactured counterparts, and optimizing processing parameters is key to achieving high-quality depositions with desirable and predictable mechanical properties. This study was focused on 4340 steel fabricated using laser powder bed fusion (LPBF), and 42 laser power and scan speed combinations have been systematically investigated to determine an optimized melt pool geometry that would ensure fully-dense parts. The AM material was compared with a wrought 4340 equivalent and studied in two customized heat treated conditions, optimized for strength and toughness, respectively. The microstructures of the as-fabricated and heat treated AM and wrought materials were characterized to assess differences introduced by the layer-by-layer fabrication process and subsequent heat treatment. Tensile properties of both materials were also evaluated and demonstrate that the AM materials offer equal or superior properties compared to the wrought equivalents. Differences in fracture surface morphologies indicate the distinct failure mechanisms associated with the materials’ characteristic microstructures, and the role of inclusions in the failures was studied to elucidate these differences. Complementary to the experimental investigations, the dataset was leveraged to make recommendations for future design of experiments to optimize AM build parameters in other material systems. A statistical Monte Carlo analysis was used to predict the interpolation error produced using reduced datasets and to enable informed processing parameters selection. These findings are discussed to make recommendations for the use of AM materials for high-integrity structural applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Many-Body Benchmark of Electronic Charge and Spin Densities for Li 1–x NiO 2

Accurate benchmarks are particularly important for highly correlated oxides as mean-field approximations often fail to describe the subtle balance of charge transfer and magnetism in these materials with an accuracy comparable to experimental needs. Here we present accurate diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) results of the electronic charge and spin densities for the tunable highly correlated oxide Li 1–x NiO 2 for x = 0, 1/2, and 1. To enable quantitative comparisons, we introduce a robust density-partitioning scheme, extending Voronoi analysis to assign atomic charges from spatially noisy DMC densities. We then benchmark common approximations used in density functional theory (DFT). Comparison against DMC shows that r 2 SCAN delivers the most balanced performance across charge, spin, and radial density descriptors, nearly reproducing DMC results for LiNiO 2 and apical Ni sites in Li 0.5 NiO 2 . Hybrid functionals (PBE0, SCAN0) perform unexpectedly poorly, and PBE + U + V yields inconsistent trends between charge and spin densities. Therefore, the r 2 SCAN functional minimizes errors relative to DMC while capturing the variable valence of the Ni ion and also retaining the computational efficiency of DFT for large-scale simulations of the tunable structural and electronic phases of Li1−xNiO2. Our study highlights the importance of accurate benchmarking of the fundamental quantities involved in DFT to select appropriate DFT approximations in order to advance the predictive modeling of charge-transfer-driven phenomena in correlated electron systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Autonomous System Subversion Tactics: Prototypes and Recommended Countermeasures

One of the fielding requirements for Advanced and Small Modular Reactors (AR/SMR) is the ability to support remote and autonomous operations. Autonomous Control Systems (ACS) are found on platforms such as Autonomous Space Vehicles, Cruise Missiles, and advanced driver-assistance systems. Each of these ACS implementations depends upon a set of decision support subsystems responsible for supporting Autonomous Mission Managers (names vary based upon field and author preferences). These Autonomous Mission Managers receive inputs from system sensors (e.g., LIDAR collection from an automobile travelling down a street; transients from a nuclear reactor), and perform a set of classifications (e.g., Red Traffic Light; Small Pedestrian at 10m; Load Rejection; Single Coolant Pump Trip), and then use these classifications in combination with recommendation algorithms to achieve platform goals (e.g., Stop the Vehicle at the Traffic Light, Avoid the Small Pedestrian; Trip the Reactor to prevent a Safety Event). The design, implementation, and fielding of an ACS capability will alter the cyber-attack surface such that existing risk management plans will need to be updated to include how to protect and defend against data-science and decision-support-system attack classes. These attack classes would include protection of the design and training environments where algorithm selection and testing and training data would be obvious attack vectors. These attack classes would also require an informed set of detection and response procedures to identify anomalous behaviors and document best practices for anomaly assessment and vulnerability mitigation and remediation. Last year we published a Cyber Threat Assessment Methodology for Autonomous and Remote Operations for AR/SMRs along with a companion publication on Cyber Attack and Defense Use Cases. The focus of the methodology was on describing and enumerating ACS processes, components, and functions such that security engineers could: evaluate subversion options against the target; identify threat actor attributes and capabilities derived from each subversion option; and identify security controls and response countermeasures. The Use Cases document offered detailed methodology examples including an assessment of a Military Base SMR, an Autonomous System Decision Loop, and implementation of AR/SMR Machine Learning algorithms. Our proposal at the end of last year was to focus on implementation of subversion prototypes related to the last Use Case area: AR/SMR Machine Learning (ML) Algorithms. We included six attack scenarios in our Use Cases paper: a Poisoning Attack against ML functions implemented using an FPGA; a Trojaning Attack against ML classifiers exploiting the excitability of Nuclear Engineers; a Backdooring Attack against ML Training environments to ensure persistence of an attack vector; a False Positive Evasion Attack against multi-factor Access Control Systems using clever inputs; an Inference Attack against ML models by an Insider with access to the Operational environment; and an Adversarial Reprogramming Attack against a Material Access Control Video Surveillance System. At the beginning of this year these six attack scenarios were provided to our research teams at Georgia Tech and Idaho State University and each team successfully implemented a subversion attack against a ML implementation to include transient misclassifications. While this is a notable outcome from this type of research, this paper offers the reader insight into not only how to structure and execute these types of attacks, but into the thought process behind how the researcher investigated the problem space, performed initial algorithm implementation, and the trial-and-error behind arriving at the successful subversion prototypes. We include in this paper a set of associated Scenarios on how these subversion prototypes could be implemented and an initial set of guidance for AR/SMR architects, Nuclear Regulators, and Cyber Defenders to implement awareness and defense capabilities into their current operational portfolios.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Stellarator Simplification using Permanent Magnets (PM4Stell)

This Report describes the design and prototyping of an array of rare-Earth permanent magnets to form a stellarator. This effort was motivated by the hypothesis that the usage of permanent magnets, rather than electromagnetic coils with complex geometry, could reduce the cost of stellarator construction and thereby make increase the feasibility of the stellarator as a technology for a fusion-based power plant. In this project, we have developed novel methods for specifying the positions, shapes, and polarizations of the magnets in the array, and have developed designs for mounting structures and tooling for assembly. We have also performed detailed finite-element modeling to qualify the accuracy of the magnetic field produced by the magnet array as designed, and to confirm that the structure can withstand the forces between the magnets. We have also developed techniques for measuring the magnetic field produced by the array once constructed, as well as for correcting errors in the field arising from misalignments and offsets within the tolerances for mounting and fabrication. Finally, we have constructed a tabletop prototype of a section of the array to qualify the concept for assembling and mounting magnets within the array.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Stellarator Simplification using Permanent Magnets (PM4Stell)

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Profiling the molecular destruction rates of temperature and humidity as well as the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation in the convective boundary layer

A simultaneous deployment of Doppler, temperature, and water-vapor lidars is able to provide profiles of molecular destruction rates and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) dissipation in the convective boundary layer (CBL). Horizontal wind profiles and profiles of vertical wind, temperature, and moisture fluctuations are combined, and transversal temporal autocovariance functions (ACFs) are determined for deriving the dissipation and molecular destruction rates. These are fundamental loss terms in the TKE as well as the potential temperature and mixing ratio variance equations. These ACFs are fitted to their theoretical shapes and coefficients in the inertial subrange. Error bars are estimated by a propagation of noise errors. Sophisticated analyses of the ACFs are performed in order to choose the correct range of lags of the fits for fitting their theoretical shapes in the inertial subrange as well as for minimizing systematic errors due to temporal and spatial averaging and micro- and mesoscale circulations. We demonstrate that we achieve very consistent results of the derived profiles of turbulent variables regardless of whether 1 or 10 s time resolutions are used. We also show that the temporal and spatial length scales of the fluctuations in vertical wind, moisture, and potential temperature are similar with a spatial integral scale of ≈160 m at least in the mixed layer (ML). The profiles of the molecular destruction rates show a maximum in the interfacial layer (IL) and reach values of ϵ m ≃ 7 x 10 -4 g 2 kg −2 s −1 for mixing ratio and ϵ θ ≃ 1.6 x 10 -3 K 2 s −1 for potential temperature. In contrast, the maximum of the TKE dissipation is reached in the ML and amounts to ≃ 10 -2 m 2 s −3 . We also demonstrate that the vertical wind ACF coefficient k w ∝ $\overline{w'^{2}}$ and the TKE dissipation ϵ ∝ ($\overline{w'^{2}}$) 3/2 . For the molecular destruction rates, we show that ϵ m ∝ $\overline{m'^{2}}$ ($\overline{w'^{2}}$) 1/2 and ϵ θ ∝ $\overline{θ'^{2}}$ ($\overline{w'^{2}}$) 1/2 . These equations can be used for parameterizations of ϵ, ϵ m , and ϵ θ . All noise error bars are derived by error propagation and are small enough to compare the results with previous observations and large-eddy simulations. The results agree well with previous observations but show more detailed structures in the IL. Consequently, the synergy resulting from this new combination of active remote sensors enables the profiling of turbulent variables such as integral scales, variances, TKE dissipation, and the molecular destruction rates as well as deriving relationships between them. The results can be used for the parameterization of turbulent variables, TKE budget analyses, and the verification of large-eddy simulations.

dissipation rate↗

DOE OSTI2023

Spin-crossover complexes: Self-interaction correction vs density correction

Complexes containing a transition metal atom with a 3d 4 –3d 7 electron configuration typically have two low-lying, high-spin (HS) and low-spin (LS) states. The adiabatic energy difference between these states, known as the spin-crossover energy, is small enough to pose a challenge even for electronic structure methods that are well known for their accuracy and reliability. In this work, we analyze the quality of electronic structure approximations for spin-crossover energies of iron complexes with four different ligands by comparing energies from self-consistent and post-self-consistent calculations for methods based on the random phase approximation and the Fermi–Löwdin self-interaction correction. Considering that Hartree–Fock densities were found by Song et al., J. Chem. Theory Comput. 14, 2304 (2018), to eliminate the density error to a large extent, and that the Hartree–Fock method and the Perdew–Zunger-type self-interaction correction share some physics, we compare the densities obtained with these methods to learn their resemblance. Here, we find that evaluating non-empirical exchange-correlation energy functionals on the corresponding self-interaction-corrected densities can mitigate the strong density errors and improves the accuracy of the adiabatic energy differences between HS and LS states.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Accelerating amorphous polymer electrolyte screening by learning to reduce errors in molecular dynamics simulated properties

Polymer electrolytes are promising candidates for the next generation lithium-ion battery technology. Large scale screening of polymer electrolytes is hindered by the significant cost of molecular dynamics (MD) simulation in amorphous systems: the amorphous structure of polymers requires multiple, repeated sampling to reduce noise and the slow relaxation requires long simulation time for convergence. Here, we accelerate the screening with a multi-task graph neural network that learns from a large amount of noisy, unconverged, short MD data and a small number of converged, long MD data. We achieve accurate predictions of 4 different converged properties and screen a space of 6247 polymers that is orders of magnitude larger than previous computational studies. Further, we extract several design principles for polymer electrolytes and provide an open dataset for the community. Our approach could be applicable to a broad class of material discovery problems that involve the simulation of complex, amorphous materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Extraction of the neutron F 2 structure function from inclusive proton and deuteron deep-inelastic scattering data

The available world deep-inelastic scattering (DIS) data on proton and deuteron structure functions F 2 p , F 2 d , and their ratios are leveraged to extract the free neutron F 2 n structure function, the F 2 n / F 2 p ratio, and associated uncertainties using the latest nuclear effect calculations in the deuteron. Special attention is devoted to the normalization of the proton and deuteron experimental datasets and to the treatment of correlated systematic errors, as well as the quantification of procedural and theoretical uncertainties. The extracted F 2 n dataset is utilized to evaluate the Q 2 dependence of the Gottfried sum rule and the nonsinglet F 2 p − F 2 n moments. To facilitate replication of our study, as well as for general applications, we provide a comprehensive DIS database including all recent Jefferson Lab 6 GeV measurements, the extracted F n 2 , a modified CTEQ-JLab global parton distribution function fit named CJ15nlo_mod, and grids with calculated proton, neutron, and deuteron DIS structure functions. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

ZeoNet: 3D convolutional neural networks for predicting adsorption in nanoporous zeolites

Zeolites are one of the most widely used materials in the chemical industry due to their nanometer-sized pores that can adsorb and react upon molecules selectively. With hundreds of known framework topologies and hundreds of thousands of computationally predicted structures, the ability to rapidly predict zeolite performance allows researchers to prioritize their efforts on the most promising structures for a given application. Although the accuracy of forcefield-based atomistic simulations has advanced significantly in the past two decades, these simulations can be computationally expensive, especially for long-chain, complex molecules. Here, we present ZeoNet, a representation learning framework using convolutional neural networks (ConvNets) and 3D volumetric representations for predicting adsorption in zeolites. ZeoNet was trained on the task of predicting Henry's constants for adsorption, k H , of n-octadecane in more than 330 000 known and predicted zeolite materials. Employing a 3D grid based on the distances to solvent-accessible surfaces, a volumetric representation that can be generated efficiently, the best-performing ZeoNet achieved a correlation coefficient r 2 = 0.977 and a mean-squared error MSE = 3.8 in ln k H , which corresponds to an error of 9.3 kJ mol -1 in adsorption free energy. In comparison, a model based on hand-designed geometric features has values of r 2 = 0.783 and MSE = 35.7. ZeoNet is also relatively efficient and can process ≈8 structures per second on an Nvidia RTX 2080TI GPU, orders of magnitude faster than forcefield-based simulations. A systematic analysis was conducted to investigate how the choice of ConvNet architectures, the linear dimension (L) and spatial resolution (Δd) of the distance grids, batch size, optimizer, and learning rate impact the model performance. We found that ConvNets based on the ResNet architecture offer the best tradeoff between expressiveness and efficiency. The performance for all models reaches a plateau at L = 30–45 Å and depends less sensitively on grid resolution, with a small benefit around Δd = 0.30–0.45 Å. Finally, saliency maps were visualized to identify which regions of the materials contributed the most to model predictions. It was found, interestingly, that the predictions are driven primarily by the accessible pore volume rather than the region occupied by the framework atoms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2019

A magnetic phase diagram for nanoscale epitaxial BiFeO 3 films

BiFeO 3 thin films have attracted considerable attention by virtue of their potential application in low-energy spintronic and magnonic devices. BiFeO 3 possesses an intricate magnetic structure, characterized by a spin cycloid with period ~62 nm that governs the functional magnonic response, and which can be modulated or even destroyed by strain, magnetic and electric fields, or chemical doping. The literature on (110)-oriented BiFeO 3 films is not explicit in defining the conditions under which this cycloid persists, as its presence depends on synthesis method and thin-film boundary conditions, especially in the sub-100 nm thickness regime. This report aims to end “trial and error” approaches in determining the conditions under which this cycloid and its associated functional magnonic response exist. We show that in specific crystallographic orientations of epitaxial BiFeO 3 , an unexplored strain parameter—the distortion in the ab plane of the monoclinic unit cell—significantly influences the spin structure. Combining Mössbauer spectroscopy and low-energy Raman spectroscopy with first-principles-based effective Hamiltonian calculations, we show that both average strain and this distortion destroy the cycloid. For films grown on (110)-oriented SrTiO 3 substrates, if the BiFeO 3 lattice parameters a and b differ by more than about 1.2%, the cycloid is destabilized, resulting in a pseudocollinear magnetic order ground state. We are thereby able to construct a phase diagram of the spin structure for nanoscale epitaxial BiFeO 3 films, which aims to resolve long-standing literature inconsistencies and provide powerful guidelines for the design of future magnonic and spintronic devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Estimating the Contributions to Human Error Probability from the Convolution of the Distribution of Time Available and Time Required

As part of their duties, Human Reliability Analysis must often evaluate if crews in nuclear power plants (NPPs) can complete tasks associated with a human-failure event within time limits. For example, the time required in NPP scenarios is determined by systematic and structured walkthroughs, feasibility studies, recorded times from training exercises, and interviews with experienced operators and experts. Typically, a point estimate is derived for the estimate (mean, maximum, or 95th percentile of time required). Using point-estimate values can mask the risk associated with variability among crews, plant conditions and set-up, environmental conditions, and other impact factors under which these actions are executed. While point estimates for time required and time available have served the industry well, without considering the uncertainty they could lead to biased understanding about the risk. The Integrated Human Event Analysis System - General Methodology (IDHEAS-G) model (developed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC) for human error probability calculates human error probability by summing two probabilities: insufficient time and cognitive error. As such, the model takes a more holistic approach by considering the full distributions for time required and time available to calculate the human error probability because the time available to complete the task is insufficient. In this study, we expand on the work of the NRC and discuss methods for estimating these time considerations. For example, for the time required, the impact of Performance Influencing Factors (PIFs) on the distribution was divided into impacts that are aleatory in nature, such as crew-to-crew variability, and those that are epistemic (i.e., the PIFs). Starting with the factors that introduce aleatory uncertainty, a first-order distribution was developed from a large set of time required (i.e., NPP task completion times) data for the range of operator actions that occur in the NPP control room under simulated accident conditions. The first-order distribution can then be adjusted to account for epistemic uncertainty using research associated with the impact of applicable PIFs on the time required. We also develop guidance for analysts to address the probability distributions for the time available. The guidance we developed on how to estimate time required and time available distributions is based on the identification of pertinent research and data, data analyses, and expert knowledge elicitation.

human error probability, human performance, time e↗