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NASA NTRS2016

Modeling Global Water Use for the 21st Century: Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative and Its Approaches

To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity conditions already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of the world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative coordinates its work with other ongoing scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fast track" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water-energy-climate nexus.

soaring↗
NASA NTRS2015

Improving Climate Projections Using "Intelligent" Ensembles

Recent changes in the climate system have led to growing concern, especially in communities which are highly vulnerable to resource shortages and weather extremes. There is an urgent need for better climate information to develop solutions and strategies for adapting to a changing climate. Climate models provide excellent tools for studying the current state of climate and making future projections. However, these models are subject to biases created by structural uncertainties. Performance metrics-or the systematic determination of model biases-succinctly quantify aspects of climate model behavior. Efforts to standardize climate model experiments and collect simulation data-such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-provide the means to directly compare and assess model performance. Performance metrics have been used to show that some models reproduce present-day climate better than others. Simulation data from multiple models are often used to add value to projections by creating a consensus projection from the model ensemble, in which each model is given an equal weight. It has been shown that the ensemble mean generally outperforms any single model. It is possible to use unequal weights to produce ensemble means, in which models are weighted based on performance (called "intelligent" ensembles). Can performance metrics be used to improve climate projections? Previous work introduced a framework for comparing the utility of model performance metrics, showing that the best metrics are related to the variance of top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation. These metrics improve present-day climate simulations of Earth's energy budget using the "intelligent" ensemble method. The current project identifies several approaches for testing whether performance metrics can be applied to future simulations to create "intelligent" ensemble-mean climate projections. It is shown that certain performance metrics test key climate processes in the models, and that these metrics can be used to evaluate model quality in both current and future climate states. This information will be used to produce new consensus projections and provide communities with improved climate projections for urgent decision-making.

Baker, Noel C.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Improving Climate Projections Using "Intelligent" Ensembles

Recent changes in the climate system have led to growing concern, especially in communities which are highly vulnerable to resource shortages and weather extremes. There is an urgent need for better climate information to develop solutions and strategies for adapting to a changing climate. Climate models provide excellent tools for studying the current state of climate and making future projections. However, these models are subject to biases created by structural uncertainties. Performance metrics-or the systematic determination of model biases-succinctly quantify aspects of climate model behavior. Efforts to standardize climate model experiments and collect simulation data-such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-provide the means to directly compare and assess model performance. Performance metrics have been used to show that some models reproduce present-day climate better than others. Simulation data from multiple models are often used to add value to projections by creating a consensus projection from the model ensemble, in which each model is given an equal weight. It has been shown that the ensemble mean generally outperforms any single model. It is possible to use unequal weights to produce ensemble means, in which models are weighted based on performance (called "intelligent" ensembles). Can performance metrics be used to improve climate projections? Previous work introduced a framework for comparing the utility of model performance metrics, showing that the best metrics are related to the variance of top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation. These metrics improve present-day climate simulations of Earth's energy budget using the "intelligent" ensemble method. The current project identifies several approaches for testing whether performance metrics can be applied to future simulations to create "intelligent" ensemble-mean climate projections. It is shown that certain performance metrics test key climate processes in the models, and that these metrics can be used to evaluate model quality in both current and future climate states. This information will be used to produce new consensus projections and provide communities with improved climate projections for urgent decision-making.

Baker, Noel C.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Prevailing Torque Locking Feature in Threaded Fasteners Using Anaerobic Adhesive

This paper presents results from tests to assess the use of anaerobic adhesive for providing a prevailing torque locking feature in threaded fasteners. Test procedures are developed and tests are performed on three fastener materials, four anaerobic adhesives, and both unseated assembly conditions. Five to ten samples are tested for each combination. Tests for initial use, reuse without additional adhesive, and reuse with additional adhesive are performed for all samples. A 48-hour cure time was used for all initial use and reuse tests. Test data are presented as removal torque versus removal angle with the specification required prevailing torque range added for performance assessment. Percent specification pass rates for the all combinations of fastener material, adhesive, and assembly condition are tabulated and reveal use of anaerobic adhesive as a prevailing torque locking feature is viable. Although not every possible fastener material and anaerobic adhesive combination provides prevailing torque values within specification, any combination can be assessed using the test procedures presented. Reuse without additional anaerobic adhesive generally provides some prevailing torque, and in some cases within specification. Reuse with additional adhesive often provides comparable removal torque data as in initial use.

Hernandez, Alan↗
NASA NTRS2016

Watershed-Scale Modeling of Land-Use and Altered Environment Impacts on Aquatic Weed Growth in the Delta

The California Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta is the hub for California's water supply, conveying water from Northern to Southern California agriculture and communities while supporting important ecosystem services, agriculture, and communities in the Delta. Changes in climate, long-term drought, and water quality have all been suspected as playing role in the dramatic expansion of invasive aquatic plants and their impact on ecosystems of the San Francisco Bay / California Delta complex. NASA Ames Research Center, USDA-Agricultural Research Service, the State of California, UC Davis, and local governments have partnered under a USDA sponsored project (DRAAWP) to develop science-based, adaptive-management strategies for invasive aquatic plants in Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Critical to developing management strategies is to understand how the Delta is affected by both the magnitude of fluctuations in land-use and climate / drought induced altered environments and how the plants respond to these altered environments. We utilize the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a watershed-scale model developed to quantify the impact of land management practices in large and complex watersheds on water quality, as the backbone for a customized Delta model - Delta-SWAT. The model uses land-use, soils, elevation, and hydrologic routing to characterize pesticide and nutrient transport from the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers watersheds and loading into the Delta. Land-use within the Delta, as well as water extraction to supply those functions, and the resulting return of water to Delta waterways are included in Delta-SWAT. Hydrologic transport within the Delta has required significant attention to address the lack of elevation driven transport processes. Delta-SWAT water quality trend estimates are compared with water quality monitoring conducted throughout the Delta. Aquatic plant response to water quality and other environmental factors is carried out using a customized model component. Plant response to the range of water quality factors, response times, and altered temperature and light regimes of the Delta have required gap-filling studies to provide model parameters. Delta-SWAT provides a tool for evaluating temporal and spatial effects of land-use and altered environments in the Delta and contributing watersheds on aquatic weed growth. Using Delta-SWAT for simulation modeling allows evaluation of historic and current conditions as well as consideration potential climate change and management practice outcomes. Delta-SWAT adds to the scientific understanding of dynamics in the Delta and enhances development of science-informed, management strategies and practices.

Ecosystem↗
NASA NTRS2017

Lessons Learned from OSIRIS-Rex Autonomous Navigation Using Natural Feature Tracking

The Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, Security-Regolith Explorer (Osiris-REx) spacecraft is scheduled to launch in September, 2016 to embark on an asteroid sample return mission. It is expected to rendezvous with the asteroid, Bennu, navigate to the surface, collect a sample (July 20), and return the sample to Earth (September 23). The original mission design called for using one of two Flash Lidar units to provide autonomous navigation to the surface. Following Preliminary design and initial development of the Lidars, reliability issues with the hardware and test program prompted the project to begin development of an alternative navigation technique to be used as a backup to the Lidar. At the critical design review, Natural Feature Tracking (NFT) was added to the mission. NFT is an onboard optical navigation system that compares observed images to a set of asteroid terrain models which are rendered in real-time from a catalog stored in memory on the flight computer. Onboard knowledge of the spacecraft state is then updated by a Kalman filter using the measured residuals between the rendered reference images and the actual observed images. The asteroid terrain models used by NFT are built from a shape model generated from observations collected during earlier phases of the mission and include both terrain shape and albedo information about the asteroid surface. As a result, the success of NFT is highly dependent on selecting a set of topographic features that can be both identified during descent as well as reliably rendered using the shape model data available. During development, the OSIRIS-REx team faced significant challenges in developing a process conducive to robust operation. This was especially true for terrain models to be used as the spacecraft gets close to the asteroid and higher fidelity models are required for reliable image correlation. This paper will present some of the challenges and lessons learned from the development of the NFT system which includes not just the flight hardware and software but the development of the terrain models used to generate the onboard rendered images.

Navigation↗
NASA NTRS2017

Life Support Goals Including High Closure and Low Mass Should Be Reconsidered Using Systems Analysis

Recycling space life support systems have been built and tested since the 1960s and have operated on the International Space Station (ISS) since the mid 2000s. The development of space life support has been guided by a general consensus focused on two important related goals, increasing system closure and reducing launch mass. High closure is achieved by recycling crew waste products such as carbon dioxide and condensed humidity. Recycling directly reduces the mass of oxygen and water for the crew that must be launched from Earth. The launch mass of life support can be further reduced by developing recycling systems with lower hardware mass and reduced power. The life support consensus has also favored using biological systems. The goal of increasing closure using biological systems suggests that food should be grown in space and that biological processors be used for air, water, and waste recycling. The goal of reducing launch mass led to use of Equivalent System Mass (ESM) in life support advocacy and technology selection. The recent consensus assumes that the recycling systems architecture developed in the 1960s and implemented on ISS will be used on all future long missions. NASA and other project organizations use the standard systems engineering process to guide hardware development. The systems process was used to develop ISS life support, but it has been less emphasized in planning future systems for the moon and Mars. Since such missions are far in the future, there has been less immediate need for systems engineering analysis to consider trade-offs, reliability, and Life Cycle Cost (LCC). Preliminary systems analysis suggests that the life support consensus concepts should be revised to reflect systems engineering requirements.

systems analysis↗
NASA NTRS2015

Actuators Using Piezoelectric Stacks and Displacement Enhancers

Actuators are used to drive all active mechanisms including machines, robots, and manipulators to name a few. The actuators are responsible for moving, manipulating, displacing, pushing and executing any action that is needed by the mechanism. There are many types and principles of actuation that are responsible for these movements ranging from electromagnetic, electroactive, thermo-mechanic, piezoelectric, electrostrictive etc. Actuators are readily available from commercial producers but there is a great need for reducing their size, increasing their efficiency and reducing their weight. Studies at JPL’s Non Destructive Evaluation and Advanced Actuators (NDEAA) Laboratory have been focused on the use of piezoelectric stacks and novel designs taking advantage of piezoelectric’s potential to provide high torque/force density actuation and high electromechanical conversion efficiency. The actuators/motors that have been developed and reviewed in this paper are operated by various horn configurations as well as the use of pre-stress flexures that make them thermally stable and increases their coupling efficiency. The use of monolithic designs that pre-stress the piezoelectric stack eliminates the use of compression stress bolt. These designs enable the embedding of developed solid-state motors/actuators in any structure with the only macroscopically moving parts are the rotor or the linear translator. Finite element modeling and design tools were used to determine the requirements and operation parameters and the results were used to simulate, design and fabricate novel actuators/motors. The developed actuators and performance will be described and discussed in this paper.

rotary devices↗
NASA NTRS2017

Effective Assimilation of SMAP Observations Using Statistical Techniques

Statistical techniques permit the retrieval of soil moisture estimates in a model climatology while retaining the spatial and temporal signatures of the satellite observations. As a consequence, the need for bias correction prior to an assimilation of these estimates is reduced, which could result in a more effective use of the independent information provided by the satellite observations. In this study, a statistical neural network (NN) retrieval algorithm is calibrated using SMAP brightness temperature observations and modeled soil moisture estimates (similar to those used to calibrate the SMAP Level 4 DA system). Daily values of surface soil moisture are estimated using the NN and then assimilated into the NASA Catchment model. The skill of the assimilation estimates is assessed based on a comprehensive comparison to in situ measurements from the SMAP core and sparse network sites as well as the International Soil Moisture Network. The NN retrieval assimilation is found to significantly improve the model skill, particularly in areas where the model does not represent processes related to agricultural practices. Additionally, the NN method is compared to assimilation experiments using traditional bias correction techniques. The NN retrieval assimilation is found to more effectively use the independent information provided by SMAP resulting in larger model skill improvements than assimilation experiments using traditional bias correction techniques.

Kolassa, J.↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Consistent EPIC Visible Channel Calibration using VIIRS and MODIS as a Reference

The Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) aboard the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) satellite constantly images the sunlit disk of Earth from the Lagrange-1 (L1) point in 10 spectral channels spanning the UV, VIS, and NIR spectrums. Recently, the DSCOVR EPIC team has publicly released version 2 dataset, which has implemented improved navigation, stray-light correction, and flat-fielding of the CCD array. The EPIC 2-year data record must be well-calibrated for consistent cloud, aerosol, trace gas, land use and other retrievals. Because EPIC lacks onboard calibrators, the observations made by EPIC channels must be calibrated vicariously using the coincident measurements from radiometrically stable instruments that have onboard calibration systems. MODIS and VIIRS are best-suited instruments for this task as they contain similar spectral bands that are well-calibrated onboard using solar diffusers and lunar tracking. We have previously calibrated the EPIC version 1 dataset by using EPIC and VIIRS angularly matched radiance pairs over both all-sky ocean and deep convective clouds (DCC). We noted that the EPIC image required navigations adjustments, and that the EPIC stray-light correction provided an offset term closer to zero based on the linear regression of the EPIC and VIIRS ray-matched radiance pairs. We will evaluate the EPIC version 2 navigation and stray-light improvements using the same techniques. In addition, we will monitor the EPIC channel calibration over the two years for any temporal degradation or anomalous behavior. These two calibration methods will be further validated using desert and DCC invariant Earth targets. The radiometric characterization of the selected invariant targets is performed using multiple years of MODIS and VIIRS measurements. Results of these studies will be shown at the conference.

Haney, C. O.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Inflatable Technology: Using Flexible Materials to Make Large Structures

Space structures are one of the most critical components for any spacecraft, as they must provide the maximum amount of livable volume with the minimum amount of mass. Deployable structures can be used to gain additional space that would not normally fit under a launch vehicle shroud. This expansion capability allows it to be packed in a small launch volume for launch, and deploy into its fully open volume once in space. Inflatable, deployable structures in particular, have been investigated by NASA since the early 1950’s and used in a number of spaceflight applications. Inflatable satellites, booms, and antennas can be used in low-Earth orbit applications. Inflatable heatshields, decelerators, and airbags can be used for entry, descent and landing applications. Inflatable habitats, airlocks, and space stations can be used for in-space living spaces and surface exploration missions. Inflatable blimps and rovers can be used for advanced missions to other worlds. These applications are just a few of the possible uses for inflatable structures that will continued to be studied as we look to expand our presence throughout the solar system.

structures↗
NASA NTRS2016

Use of the NLP10x10 Sequential Quadratic Programming Algorithm To Solve Rotorcraft Hub Loads Minimisation Problems

Previous research and experimentation on the use of a non-linear programming constrained optimisation technique to define an optimal control vector for rotorcraft applications indicated that use of this methodology was feasible and desirable in many cases. In particular, use of non-linear programming methods that solve a sequence of related quadratic-programming sub-problems were used successfully to solve these problems. Accordingly, a licence for one of the latest versions of Professor Klaus Schittkowskis very successful Sequential Quadratic Programming NLPQLP software was obtained and used to experiment with and analyse typical optimisation problems of the type encountered in various rotorcraft wind tunnel and flight tests. This research resulted in the development of the general NLPQLP Computation System that could be used to solve problems of the type encountered in various rotorcraft applications where there is a linear dependence of the measurement vector on the control vector, and where equality andor inequality constraints might be imposed. This development was accomplished on a mainframe computer not part of actual wind tunnel andor flight-test experiment, but in a format which was transferable to wind tunnel lap-top computers. Emphasis was directed toward obtaining efficiency, robustness and speed in computation.The System was developed in support of the five-bladed SMART Rotor Active Flap Rotor Hub Loads analytical minimisation research. The design and development of the Computation System was tailored to address the particular requirements of the problem to minimise a performance metric function of measured hub load harmonic angular couple components by optimising the control vector harmonic flap angular couple components subject to constraints on the amplitudes of these control vector harmonic flap angular couple components. In addition, to facilitate real time wind tunnel experimentation, the ability to rapidly selectchange the particular hub load harmonic angular couple components andor the particular control vector harmonic angular couple components to be considered in the optimisation procedure was provided in the System. This capability allows the singling out of particular hub load frequencies andor particular flap angle frequencies to be analysed during testing operations. The System was used very successfully for the SMART Active Flap Rotor Hub minimisation problems considered in the study, the results of which were presented at the American Helicopter Society Fifth Decennial Aeromechanics Specialist Conference in January 2014. Excellent agreement between cases initiated with best guess starting estimates for the control vector elements and cases initiated with zero control vector starting element estimates resulted, indicating the robustness of the NLP10x10 algorithm.

Rotorcraft Hub Loads↗
NASA NTRS2017

Synergy Between Land Use and Climate Change Increases Future Fire Risk in Amazon Forests

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

Le Page, Yannick↗
NASA NTRS2019

Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning

Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to −0.021 ± 0.007 and −0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered.

Krause, A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Using GES DISC Data to Study Kilauea Volcano of 2018

Kilauea volcano in Hawaii which erupted in early May 2018 injected massive amount of SO2 and ash into the atmosphere. The lava flow during the eruption destroyed many home and neighborhoods. The SO2 plume during the eruption of Kilauea volcano is analyzed from May to August 2018 using multiple satellite products such as Level 2 TROPspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and Level 3 Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) from the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). GES DISC hosts multi-disciplinary Earth science data sets that can be used to analyze natural disasters, such as the Kilauea volcano. Additionally, GES DISC's Giovanni tool can be used to visualize these data. We acquired OMI through the subsetting function, which is processed by the GES DISC in-house developed backend software Level3/4 Regrider and Subsetter (L34RS) and TROPOMI using OPeNDAP.Data from the OMI OMSO2e product showed elevated levels of SO2 amounts during the eruption between May to August 2018. Similarly, ground-based stations at Hawaii Volcanoes National Park recorded higher SO2 concentrations during the same time period. This study uses wind direction from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) to analyze the transport and dispersion of SO2 plume and map lava flows from the volcano using thermal images from Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). Furthermore, satellite observations combined with socioeconomic and public health data are used to analyze its impact in public health.

KC, Binita↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Structural Test and Analysis Correlation Using Digital Image Correlation Boundary Measurements

Simplified idealizations, such as clamped or simply supported, are commonly used as support boundary conditions in modeling and analysis of tested aerospace structures. However, these simplifications are not always appropriate and characterization of the response of non-rigid boundaries is often required to improve test and analysis correlation. While e analysis models are typically modified to better represent the test, this modification is often not practical due to the complexities of the boundary response. A study is conducted to examine the use of digital image correlation (DIC) to measure the boundary support structure response and then to adjust the test data to remove the effects of the boundary response in order to improve test and analysis correlation. A high-aspect ratio composite wing test is the subject of the study. Three sources of boundary flexibility contributing to rigid body rotation of the test wing are identified and quantified using both DIC and conventional test data. The wing displacement test data are adjusted using DIC data for these sources. Wing displacement test data is also adjusted using direct measurement of wing rotation from a DIC system that monitored the top surface, root region of the wing, and using available conventional instrumentation. The adjusted data exhibits improved test and analysis correlation and demonstrated the benefit of using DIC along with conventional instrumentation to collect and interpret test data.

Andrew E Lovejoy↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Variational Coupled Loads Analysis using the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method

Time-domain coupled loads analysis (CLA)is used to determine the response of a launch vehicle and payload system to transient forces, such as liftoff, engine ignitions and shutdowns, jettison events, and atmospheric flight loads, such as buffet. CLA, using Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB)component models, is the accepted method for the establishment of design-level loads for launch systems. However, uncertainty in the component models flows into uncertainty in predicted system results. Uncertainty in the structural responses during launch is a significant concern because small variations in launch vehicle and payload mode shapes and their interactions can result in significant variations in system loads. Uncertainty quantification (UQ)is used to determine statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. In this paper uncertainty is treated at the HCB component-model level. In an effort to account for model uncertainties and statistically bound their effect on CLA predictions, this work combines CLA with UQ in a process termed variational coupled loads analysis (VCLA). The modeling of uncertainty using a parametric approach, in which input parameters are represented by random variables, is common, but its major drawback is the resulting uncertainty is limited to the form of the nominal model. Uncertainty in model form is one of the biggest contributors to uncertainty in complex built-up structures. Model-form uncertainty can be represented using a nonparametric approach based on random matrix theory (RMT). In this work, UQ is performed using the hybrid parametric variation (HPV)method, which combines parametric with nonparametric uncertainty at the HCB component model level. The HPV method requires the selection of dispersion values for the HCB fixed-interface (FI)eigenvalues, and the HCB mass and stiffness matrices. The dispersions are based upon component test-analysis modal correlation results. During VCLA, random component models are assembled into an ensemble of random systems using a Monte Carlo (MC)approach. CLA is applied to each of the ensemble members to produce an ensemble of system-level responses for statistical analysis. The proposed methodology is demonstrated through its application to a buffet loads analysis of NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS)during the transonic regime fifty seconds after liftoff. Core stage (CS)section shears and moments are recovered, and statistics are computed.

Uncertainty Quantification↗
NASA NTRS2020

TURBOMAT-FR: Turbomachinery Aeroelastic Forced Response Analysis Automation Using MATLAB®: PART 1

The primary aim of this effort is to develop a software tool named “Turbomachinery Aeroelastic Analysis Tool for Forced Response (TURBOMAT-FR)” using MATLAB® (The MathWorks, Inc.) scripts. The tool will aid in performing routine forced response analysis of turbomachinery fan blades with the aid of the modal summation method (MSUM). The MSUM approach requires a modal solution consisting of modal displacements, modal frequencies, and modal stresses. The MATLAB® scripts facilitate easy extraction of the required quantities from the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and MSC Nastran (Hexagon AB) solution files. These quantities are subsequently utilized by the MSUM approach to perform a complete forced response analysis.The MATLAB® scripts in TURBOMAT-FR are utilized in postprocessing of the MSC Nastran finite element analysis outputs in three types of solutions or steps, namely (1) stresses and displacements from static and steady response solution, (2) unsteady stresses and displacements from direct forced response solution, and (3) modal solution containing modal displacements and modal stresses. In step (4), separate MATLAB® scripts are also developed to read the processed outputs in step (3) and perform forced response analysis using MSUM. The TURBOMAT-FR MATLAB® scripts mentioned previously are presented in two reports designated “Part 1” and “Part 2”. The current report, Part 1, presents the scripts needed to accomplish steps (1) and (2), noted previously. This will be exclusively useful for performing only the static and steady response analysis and the forced response analysis using the direct forced response solution approach. Part 2 contains the TURBOMAT-FR MATLAB® scripts needed to accomplish steps (3) and (4). The MATLAB® scripts given in Part 2 facilitate the calculation of unsteady stresses using MSUM and provide an automated procedure associated with aeroelastic forced response analysis with different pressure files for the same structural model. The unsteady stresses calculated using MSUM in Part 2 can be compared with those presented in Part 1. A cantilevered blade-alone model subjected to a realistic pressure loading to a boundary was used for static and unsteady direct forced response analysis to demonstrate the effectiveness of the TURBOMATFR MATLAB® scripts.

MATLAB-Scripts↗