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At least 523 records · Page 29

Networked Gamma Radiation System for Tactical Deployment

A networked gamma radiation detection system with directional sensitivity and energy spectral data acquisition capability is being developed by the National Security Technologies, LLC, Remote Sensing Laboratory to support the close and intense tactical engagement of law enforcement who carry out counterterrorism missions. In the proposed design, three clusters of 2" × 4" × 16" sodium iodide crystals (4 each) with digiBASE-E (for list mode data collection) would be placed on the passenger side of a minivan. To enhance localization and facilitate rapid identification of isotopes, advanced smart real-time localization and radioisotope identification algorithms like WAVRAD (wavelet-assisted variance reduction for anomaly detection) and NSCRAD (nuisance-rejection spectral comparison ratio anomaly detection) will be incorporated. We will test a collection of algorithms and analysis that centers on the problem of radiation detection with a distributed sensor network. We will study the basic characteristics of a radiation sensor network and focus on the trade-offs between false positive alarm rates, true positive alarm rates, and time to detect multiple radiation sources in a large area. Empirical and simulation analyses of critical system parameters, such as number of sensors, sensor placement, and sensor response functions, will be examined. This networked system will provide an integrated radiation detection architecture and framework with (i) a large nationally recognized search database equivalent that would help generate a common operational picture in a major radiological crisis; (ii) a robust reach back connectivity for search data to be evaluated by home teams; and, finally, (iii) a possibility of integrating search data from multi-agency responders.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Accelerated Sensitivity Analysis in High-Dimensional Stochastic Reaction Networks

Existing sensitivity analysis approaches are not able to handle efficiently stochastic reaction networks with a large number of parameters and species, which are typical in the modeling and simulation of complex biochemical phenomena. In this paper, a two-step strategy for parametric sensitivity analysis for such systems is proposed, exploiting advantages and synergies between two recently proposed sensitivity analysis methodologies for stochastic dynamics. The first method performs sensitivity analysis of the stochastic dynamics by means of the Fisher Information Matrix on the underlying distribution of the trajectories; the second method is a reduced-variance, finite-difference, gradient-type sensitivity approach relying on stochastic coupling techniques for variance reduction. Here in this paper we demonstrate that these two methods can be combined and deployed together by means of a new sensitivity bound which incorporates the variance of the quantity of interest as well as the Fisher Information Matrix estimated from the first method. The first step of the proposed strategy labels sensitivities using the bound and screens out the insensitive parameters in a controlled manner. In the second step of the proposed strategy, a finite-difference method is applied only for the sensitivity estimation of the (potentially) sensitive parameters that have not been screened out in the first step. Results on an epidermal growth factor network with fifty parameters and on a protein homeostasis with eighty parameters demonstrate that the proposed strategy is able to quickly discover and discard the insensitive parameters and in the remaining potentially sensitive parameters it accurately estimates the sensitivities. The new sensitivity strategy can be several times faster than current state-of-the-art approaches that test all parameters, especially in “sloppy” systems. In particular, the computational acceleration is quantified by the ratio between the total number of parameters over the number of the sensitive parameters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SCALE 6.2.4 Validation: Radiation Shielding

For safe and reliable use of computer codes by the community, accuracy must be clearly evaluated. In particular, the nuclear reactor engineering and licensing field needs accurate tools for radiation shielding modeling. Monaco with Automated Variance Reduction using Importance Calculations (MAVRIC) is one such tool, with built-in variance reduction methods distributed within the SCALE code, and its validity is demonstrated in this report for the released version 6.2.4. Representative benchmarks corresponding to shielding analysis are selected for the validation study. Typical experimental results analyzed from those benchmarks include neutron fluxes, detector count rates, detector energy response functions, neutron and gamma doses, foil neutron activation rates and activities, neutron leakage fluxes, and skyshine dose rates. Thousands of points of comparison between experiment and calculation are presented in this work. Other than rare outliers typically explained by either a lack of information or large uncertainties in the experiment conditions, material, or dimensions, MAVRIC agrees well with the experiment results. MAVRIC is also compared to Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) calculations when available, and both codes generally produce good agreements within estimated uncertainties. The selected benchmarks are obtained from reliable sources such as the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project Handbook (ICSBEP Handbook), the Shielding Integral Benchmark Archive & Database (SINBAD), and other shielding validation work found in the literature. Additional datapoints and benchmarks will be added to future versions of this report to incrementally expand the shielding validation suite incrementally.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Networked Gamma Radiation Detection System for Rapid Tactical Response

A networked gamma radiation detection system with directional sensitivity and energy spectral data acquisition capability is being developed by the National Security Technologies, LLC, to support the close and intense tactical engagement of law enforcement who carry out counterterrorism missions. In the proposed design, three clusters of 2' × 4' × 16' sodium iodide crystals (4 each) with digiBASE-E (for list mode data collection) would be placed on the passenger side of a minivan. To enhance localization and facilitate rapid identification of isotopes, advanced smart realtime localization and radioisotope identification algorithms like WAVRAD (wavelet-assisted variance reduction for anomaly detection) and NSCRAD (nuisance-rejection spectral comparison ratio anomaly detection) will be incorporated. We are testing a collection of algorithms and analysis on the problem of radiation detection with a distributed sensor network, examining such a network’s associated characteristics, and also the trade-offs between false positive alarm rates, true positive alarm rates, and time to detect multiple radiation sources in a large area. Empirical and simulation analyses of critical system parameters, such as number of sensors, sensor placement, and sensor response functions, are being examined. This networked system will provide an integrated radiation detection architecture and framework with (i) a large nationally recognized search database equivalent that would help generate a common operational picture in a major radiological crisis; (ii) a robust reach back connectivity for search data to be evaluated by home teams; and, finally, (iii) a possibility of integrating search data from multi-agency responders.

false alarm rate↗

Quantifying the Uncertainty in Deterministic Phonon Transport Calculations of Thermal Conductivity using Polynomial Chaos Expansions

The nature of computational simulations requires the inclusion of an uncertainty analysis, as we have limited knowledge of all physically determined input parameters for a computationally simulated problem. We rely on uncertainty quantification (UQ) to characterize our confidence in the outcomes. Quantifying uncertainty can provide a basis for certifications in high-consequence decisions, such as nuclear reactor design, and is a fundamental component of model validation. We employ a previously developed method of uncertainty quantification, polynomial chaos expansion with stochastic collocation (PCE-SC), applied to deterministic phonon transport simulations. In these simulations, we use the neutron transport code Rattlesnake, which solves the Self-Adjoint Angular Flux (SAAF) formulation of the transport equation with a continuous finite element (CFEM) spatial discretization and discrete ordinates, spherical harmonics angular discretizations. Rattlesnake was developed in the multi-physics object oriented simulation environment (MOOSE) framework. We have previously shown Rattlesnake to be effective in simulating phonon transport. We aim to provide a deterministic phonon transport framework for heterogeneous nuclear fuel with fission product defects to predict thermal conductivity (?). A first principles, physics-based calculation of thermal conductivity must involve factors such as the microstructure of nuclear fuel, which constantly changes during the fission process through the formation of isotopic decay products. Heat transport in oxide nuclear fuels is dominated by phonon transport. Impurities in the bulk material influence the transport of energy at the fundamental level, altering the scattering behavior of phonons and electrons. Conventionally, heat transport follows classical physics based on the heat equation derived from Fourier's law q = -k∇T, where q is heat flux, k is thermal conductivity and ∇T is a temperature gradient. However, Fourier's law is a macroscopic empirical law in which the thermal conductivity? does not have a mechanistic connection to the underpinning heat transport processes. Thermal conductivity of a material depends both on the material's intrinsic ability to transport heat and a variety of resistive effects caused by defects in the material. Thus ab initio prediction of the macroscopic conductivity - the property of interest for safe reactor operation - requires simulating detailed processes of heat transport, and then determining the effective thermal conductivity of the simulated material from the resulting heat flux under the imposed temperature difference. The thermal conductivity of a bulk, homogeneous, dielectric material can be well estimated by the mechanistically derived expression: k{sub bulk} = 1/3 C{sub ν}νgλ (2), where C{sub ν}, νg, and λ are the volumetric specific heat, phonon speed, and phonon mean free path, respectively. In these problems the relevant parameter is the material's acoustic thickness, its characteristic distance L relative to the phonon mean free path λ. In Eq. (2) the largest source of uncertainty is λ. While propagating uncertainty in λ to uncertainty in k through Eq. (2) is trivial, systems with extrinsic scattering require more sophisticated approaches. At the microscopic level, uncertainty in λ changes both a material's intrinsic thermal conductivity. Our goal is to propagate the uncertainty in λ through the deterministic transport computation of k. Because there are a small number of uncertain input quantities, we use the method of polynomial chaos expansion (PCE), which expresses solutions in the form of spectral expansions of an uncertain variable. This approach combines both intrusive and nonintrusive methods of uncertainty propagation techniques and results in a unique formulation which is very effective and efficient for problems with few uncertain parameters. Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis We use PCE-SC to measure propagation of uncertainty in a 3-D phonon transport problem of homogeneous silicon, to compute the mean and variance in temperature, heat flux and thermal conductivity. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

VARIABILITY IN OPTICAL SPECTRA OF {epsilon} ORIONIS

We present the results of a time series analysis of 130 echelle spectra of {epsilon} Ori (B0 Ia), acquired over seven observing seasons between 1998 and 2006 at Ritter Observatory. The equivalent widths of H{alpha} (net) and He I {lambda}5876 were measured and radial velocities were obtained from the central absorption of He I {lambda}5876. Temporal variance spectra (TVS) revealed significant wind variability in both H{alpha} and He I {lambda}5876. The He I TVS have a double-peaked profile consistent with radial velocity oscillations. A periodicity search was carried out on the equivalent width and radial velocity data, as well as on wavelength-binned spectra. This analysis has revealed several periods in the variability with timescales of two to seven days. Many of these periods exhibit sinusoidal modulation in the associated phase diagrams. Several of these periods were present in both H{alpha} and He I, indicating a possible connection between the wind and the photosphere. Due to the harmonic nature of these periods, stellar pulsations may be the origin of some of the observed variability. Periods on the order of the rotational period were also detected in the He I line in the 1998-1999 season and in both lines during the 2004-2005 season. These periods may indicate rotational modulation due to structure in the wind.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Development of control quality factor for HVAC control loop performance assessment I—Methodology (ASHRAE RP-1587)

This article is the second paper from the ASHRAE research project RP-1587, focusing on the methodology of obtaining a control quality factor (CQF). This article presents a development of two CQFs for assessing the heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) control loop performance. Both CQFs are able to detect whether the control loop is able to maintain the setpoint and identify the loop's ability to handle disturbances. In addition, the reversal behaviors are assessed as well. The first CQF (CQF-Harris) is proposed based on the normalized Harris index using the recursive least squares method. This recursive least squares method is selected because of its computational efficiency compared with the maximum likelihood estimation method. The second CQF (CQF-EWMA) is based on the exponentially weighted moving average of the error ratio. The assessment scale of excellent, good, fair, bad, and failed, which indicates the quality of the HVAC control loops, is established as well. The sensitivity analysis for both CQFs is also conducted, and it provides insights on choosing the appropriate parameters to compute such CQFs. Such parameters include the sampling frequency, the length of the moving window, and the variance of the unmeasured disturbance. The field evaluations and tests of the proposed CQFs for simulated control loops and real control loops can be found in the companion paper with the title 'Development of Control Quality Factor for HVAC Control Loop Performance Assessment - III: Field Testing and Results (ASHRAE RP-1587).'

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Quantifying the uncertainties of aerosol indirect effects and impacts on decadal-scale climate variability in NCAR CAM5 and CESM1

The main goal of this project is to systematically quantify the major uncertainties of aerosol indirect effects due to the treatment of moist turbulent processes that drive aerosol activation, cloud macrophysics and microphysics in response to anthropogenic aerosol perturbations using the CAM5/CESM1. To achieve this goal, the P.I. hired a postdoctoral research scientist (Dr. Anna Fitch) who started her work from the Nov.1st.2012. In order to achieve the project goal, the first task that the Postdoc. and the P.I. did was to quantify the role of subgrid vertical velocity variance on the activation and nucleation of cloud liquid droplets and ice crystals and its impact on the aerosol indirect effect in CAM5. First, we analyzed various LES cases (from dry stable to cloud-topped PBL) to check whether this isotropic turbulence assumption used in CAM5 is really valid. It turned out that this isotropic turbulence assumption is not universally valid. Consequently, from the analysis of LES, we derived an empirical formulation relaxing the isotropic turbulence assumption used for the CAM5 aerosol activation and ice nucleation, and implemented the empirical formulation into CAM5/CESM1, and tested in the single-column and global simulation modes, and examined how it changed aerosol indirect effects in the CAM5/CESM1. These results were reported in the poster section in the 18th Annual CESM workshop held in Breckenridge, CO during Jun.17-20.2013. While we derived an empirical formulation from the analysis of couple of LES from the first task, the general applicability of that empirical formulation was questionable, because it was obtained from the limited number of LES simulations. The second task we did was to derive a more fundamental analytical formulation relating vertical velocity variance to TKE using other information starting from basic physical principles. This was a somewhat challenging subject, but if this could be done in a successful way, it could be directly implemented into the CAM5 as a practical parameterization, and substantially contributes to achieving the project goal. Through an intensive research for about one year, we found appropriate mathematical formulation and tried to implement it into the CAM5 PBL and activation routine as a practical parameterized numerical code. During these processes, however, the Postdoc applied for another position in Sweden, Europe, and accepted a job offer there, and left NCAR in August 2014. In Sweden, Dr. Anna Fitch is still working on this subject in a part time, planning to finalize the research and to write the paper in a near future.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Neural Active Manifolds: Nonlinear Dimensionality Reduction for Uncertainty Quantification

We present a new approach for nonlinear dimensionality reduction, specifically designed for computationally expensive mathematical models. We leverage autoencoders to discover a one-dimensional neural active manifold (NeurAM) capturing the model output variability, through the aid of a simultaneously learnt surrogate model with inputs on this manifold. Our method only relies on model evaluations and does not require the knowledge of gradients. The proposed dimensionality reduction framework can then be applied to assist outer loop many-query tasks in scientific computing, like sensitivity analysis and multifidelity uncertainty propagation. In particular, we prove, both theoretically under idealized conditions, and numerically in challenging test cases, how NeurAM can be used to obtain multifidelity sampling estimators with reduced variance by sampling the models on the discovered low-dimensional and shared manifold among models. Several numerical examples illustrate the main features of the proposed dimensionality reduction strategy and highlight its advantages with respect to existing approaches in the literature.

Autoencoders↗

Multivariate analysis of factors predicting prostate dose in intensity-modulated radiotherapy

We conducted a multivariate analysis to determine relationships between prostate radiation dose and the state of surrounding organs, including organ volumes and the internal angle of the levator ani muscle (LAM), based on cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) images after bone matching. We analyzed 270 CBCT data sets from 30 consecutive patients receiving intensity-modulated radiation therapy for prostate cancer. With patients in the supine position on a couch with the HipFix system, data for center of mass (COM) displacement of the prostate and the state of individual organs were acquired and compared between planning CT and CBCT scans. Dose distributions were then recalculated based on CBCT images. The relative effects of factors on the variance in COM, dose covering 95% of the prostate volume (D{sub 95%}), and percentage of prostate volume covered by the 100% isodose line (V{sub 100%}) were evaluated by a backward stepwise multiple regression analysis. COM displacement in the anterior-posterior direction (COM{sub AP}) correlated significantly with the rectum volume (δVr) and the internal LAM angle (δθ; R = 0.63). Weak correlations were seen for COM in the left-right (R = 0.18) and superior-inferior directions (R = 0.31). Strong correlations between COM{sub AP} and prostate D{sub 95%} and V{sub 100%} were observed (R ≥ 0.69). Additionally, the change ratios in δVr and δθ remained as predictors of prostate D{sub 95%} and V{sub 100%}. This study shows statistically that maintaining the same rectum volume and LAM state for both the planning CT simulation and treatment is important to ensure the correct prostate dose in the supine position with bone matching.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Validation of sea ice models using an uncertainty-based distance metric for multiple model variables: NEW METRIC FOR SEA ICE MODEL VALIDATION

Here, we implement a variance-based distance metric (D n ) to objectively assess skill of sea ice models when multiple output variables or uncertainties in both model predictions and observations need to be considered. The metric compares observations and model data pairs on common spatial and temporal grids improving upon highly aggregated metrics (e.g., total sea ice extent or volume) by capturing the spatial character of model skill. The D n metric is a gamma-distributed statistic that is more general than the χ 2 statistic commonly used to assess model fit, which requires the assumption that the model is unbiased and can only incorporate observational error in the analysis. The D n statistic does not assume that the model is unbiased, and allows the incorporation of multiple observational data sets for the same variable and simultaneously for different variables, along with different types of variances that can characterize uncertainties in both observations and the model. This approach represents a step to establish a systematic framework for probabilistic validation of sea ice models. The methodology is also useful for model tuning by using the D n metric as a cost function and incorporating model parametric uncertainty as part of a scheme to optimize model functionality. We apply this approach to evaluate different configurations of the standalone Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) encompassing the parametric uncertainty in the model, and to find new sets of model configurations that produce better agreement than previous configurations between model and observational estimates of sea ice concentration and thickness.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Wavelet Analysis of Properties of Marine Boundary Layer Mesoscale Cells Observed From AMSR–E

Marine boundary layer clouds tend to organize into closed or open mesoscale cellular convection (MCC). Here, two-dimensional wavelet analysis is applied for the first time to passive microwave retrievals of cloud water path (CWP), water vapor path (WVP), and rain rate (RR) from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System in 2008 over the Northeast and Southeast Pacific, and the Southeast Atlantic subtropical stratocumulus to cumulus transition regions. The (co-)variability between CWP, WVP, and RR in 160 × 160 km 2 analysis boxes is partitioned between four mesoscale wavelength octaves (20, 40, 80, and 160 km). The cell scale is identified as the wavelength of the peak CWP variance. Together with a machine-learning classification of cell type, this allows the statistical characteristics of open and closed MCC of various scales, and its relation to WVP, RR, and potential environmental controlling factors to be analyzed across a very large set of cases. Here, the results show that the cell wavelength is most commonly 40–80 km. Cell-scale CWP perturbations are good predictors of the WVP and RR perturbations. For cells larger than 20 km, there is no obvious dependence of cell scale on the environmental controlling factors tested, suggesting that the cell scale may depend more on its historical evolution than the current environmental conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experiments and computations of microfluidic liquid–liquid flow patterns

We study two-phase liquid–liquid flow patterns in a 500 μm capillary microchannel for four biphasic systems: ethyl acetate/water, 2-pentanol/water, methyl isobutyl ketone/water, and heptane/water. Flow visualization experiments using laser induced fluorescence (LIF) reveal a total of 7 different flow patterns for all solvent pairs, namely slug flow, droplet flow, slug-droplet flow, parallel, annular, dispersed, and irregular flow. A map of different flow patterns was built to delineate the origin of their formation. We find conventional dimensionless groups are insufficient to uniquely identify the flow patterns. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling in OpenFOAM shows agreement with the experimental flow patterns for most of the two-phase flows. Principal component analysis reduces the dimensionality of potential descriptors of flow patterns and, unlike prior work using two dimensionless numbers, determines six important features that describe >95% of the variance of the experimental flow patterns. These include the total flow rate, the flow rate ratio between the two phases, the capillary and Ohnesorge numbers of the aqueous phase, and the Weber number and velocity of the organic phase. Lastly, we build a decision-tree model to further regress the data and identify the critical features and demonstrate an accuracy in predicting the flow patterns of up to 93%.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger’s injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. The research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p<0.05and T-statistics, t>1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Fundamentals of a modified model of the distribution of neutron-resonance widths and results of its application in the mass-number range of 35 {<=} A {<=} 249

A modified model is developed for describing the distribution of random resonance width for any nuclei. The model assumes the coexistence in a nucleus of one or several partial radiative and neutron amplitudes for respective resonance widths, these amplitudes differing in their parameters. Also, it is assumed that amplitude can be described by a Gaussian curve characterized by a nonzero mean value and a variance not equal to unity and that their most probable values can be obtained with the highest reliability from approximations of cumulative sums of respective widths. An analysis of data for 157 sets of neutron widths for 0 {<=} l {<=} 3 and for 56 sets of total radiative widths has been performed to date. The basic result of this analysis is the following: both for neutron and for total radiative widths, the experimental set of resonance width can be represented with a rather high probability in the form of a superposition of k {<=} 4 types differing in mean amplitude parameters.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Risk-Adaptive Experimental Design for High-Consequence Systems: LDRD Final Report

Constructing accurate statistical models of critical system responses typically requires an enormous amount of data from physical experiments or numerical simulations. Unfortunately, data generation is often expensive and time consuming. To streamline the data generation process, optimal experimental design determines the 'best' allocation of experiments with respect to a criterion that measures the ability to estimate some important aspect of an assumed statistical model. While optimal design has a vast literature, few researchers have developed design paradigms targeting tail statistics, such as quantiles. In this project, we tailored and extended traditional design paradigms to target distribution tails. Our approach included (i) the development of new optimality criteria to shape the distribution of prediction variances, (ii) the development of novel risk-adapted surrogate models that provably overestimate certain statistics including the probability of exceeding a threshold, and (iii) the asymptotic analysis of regression approaches that target tail statistics such as superquantile regression. To accompany our theoretical contributions, we released implementations of our methods for surrogate modeling and design of experiments in two complementary open source software packages, the ROL/OED Toolkit and PyApprox.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

THE NANOGRAV NINE-YEAR DATA SET: EXCESS NOISE IN MILLISECOND PULSAR ARRIVAL TIMES

Gravitational wave (GW) astronomy using a pulsar timing array requires high-quality millisecond pulsars (MSPs), correctable interstellar propagation delays, and high-precision measurements of pulse times of arrival. Here we identify noise in timing residuals that exceeds that predicted for arrival time estimation for MSPs observed by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves. We characterize the excess noise using variance and structure function analyses. We find that 26 out of 37 pulsars show inconsistencies with a white-noise-only model based on the short timescale analysis of each pulsar, and we demonstrate that the excess noise has a red power spectrum for 15 pulsars. We also decompose the excess noise into chromatic (radio-frequency-dependent) and achromatic components. Associating the achromatic red-noise component with spin noise and including additional power-spectrum-based estimates from the literature, we estimate a scaling law in terms of spin parameters (frequency and frequency derivative) and data-span length and compare it to the scaling law of Shannon and Cordes. We briefly discuss our results in terms of detection of GWs at nanohertz frequencies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Geothermal well testing pressure prediction by using a hybrid transformer model system: FORGE well use case

Geothermal has huge potential to become an indispensable component in achieving the goal of sustainable energy economy, given its capability to provide consistent baseload power to the electric grid. Injection tests are crucial in geothermal energy system as they naturally help to evaluate reservoir properties, understand fluid flow and even enhance reservoir performance. In this research, we developed a hybrid model system that integrates machine learning (ML) regression, a physics-based mathematical model, and transformer deep learning. Trained and validated using FORGE injection test dataset, this system can forecast the pressure variations both upward and downward over time. The pressure prediction achieved prediction accuracy within 3-6% variance of true pressure values. The system can significantly save time and reduce costs by testing only a few cycles and then using model predictions for further analysis, instead of conducting additional real injection cycle tests. The developed model system also holds promise for designing injection test processes and maintaining well production in geothermal energy. Presented at the IMAGE ‘25 Conference led by Shell.

FORGE↗