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DOE OSTI2025

Exploring HOD-dependent systematics for the DESI 2024 Full-Shape galaxy clustering analysis

We analyze the robustness of the DESI 2024 cosmological inference from the full shape of the galaxy power spectrum to uncertainties in the Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) model of the galaxy-halo connection and the choice of priors on nuisance parameters. We assess variations in the recovered cosmological parameters across a range of mocks populated with different HOD models and find that shifts are often greater than 20% of the expected statistical uncertainties from the DESI data. We encapsulate the effect of such shifts in terms of a systematic covariance term, C HOD , and an additional diagonal contribution quantifying the impact of our choice of nuisance parameter priors on the ability of the effective field theory (EFT) model to correctly recover the cosmological parameters of the simulations. These two covariance contributions are designed to be added to the usual covariance term, C stat , describing the statistical uncertainty in the power spectrum measurement, in order to fairly represent these sources of systematic uncertainty. This novel approach should be more general and robust to the choice of model or additional external datasets used in cosmological fits than the alternative approach of adding systematic uncertainties to the recovered marginalised parameter posteriors. We compare the approaches within the context of a fixed ΛCDM model and demonstrate that our method gives conservative estimates of the systematic uncertainty that nevertheless have little impact on the final posteriors obtained from DESI data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1974

Argon: A thermometer of the upper atmosphere

The exospheric temperatures are derived from Ar, N2, O and He measurements obtained from the Aeros-1 NATE experiment. It is shown that the temperatures derived from Ar and N2 are very close to each other and show very similar seasonal, latitudinal and the day to night variations both under quiet and the geomagnetically disturbed conditions. The temperatures derived from O and He do not usually follow this pattern because of their large variabilities in the lower thermosphere. The differences in the inferred temperatures from these gases are particularly noticeable when the neutral composition data between 220-250 km are used. In this altitude region Ar appears to have some advantage over N2 for the purpose of deriving neutral temperature.

Chandra, S.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Manicouagan impact melt, Quebec. I - Stratigraphy, petrology, and chemistry

A sheet of clast-laden impact melt 230 m thick and 55 km in diameter forms an annular plateau surrounding an uplift of shocked anorthosite within the moderately eroded Manicouagan structure. Three gradational units of the melt sheet are characterized with respect to grain size, inclusions, texture, and mineralogy. The melt rocks as a group are chemically homogeneous with a bulk composition similar to that of latite and with no statistically significant regional chemical variations. The melt is not completely chemically homogeneous as a local mafic variant represented by two samples with poikilitic texture was found. These poikilitic rocks texturally resemble some Apollo 17 impact melt rocks and are inferred to have had a similar origin and thermal history.

Floran, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Satellite-inferred morning-to-evening cloudiness changes

Outgoing infrared radiation values inferred from radiance measurements in the water vapor window taken at approximately 0900 and 2100 LT by scanning radiometers aboard the polar orbiting NOAA satellites are compared in order to determine whether a significant diurnal variation exists. Data with a resolution of 2.5 deg in latitude and longitude are mapped for latitudes between 50 deg N and 50 deg S for two seasons, June-August 1975 and December 1975-February 1976. Over land regions and coastal waters it is found that the 12-h differences in outgoing IR are dominated by middle and high clouds, likely of convective origin. Over the tropical oceans there is evidence of a morning bias in high cloudiness (possibly of convective origin) and low cloudiness (stratus, stratocumulus and trade wind cumulus), and an evening bias in middle cloudiness. Because of the compensation between these three cloud regimes the net morning to evening differences in outgoing IR are rather small except over the eastern oceans where the low cloud regime predominates and tends to produce a weak but statistically significant evening maximum.

Short, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Spatial and temporal variations in lagoon and coastal processes of the southern Brazilian coast

From a collection of information gathered during a long period, through the orbital platforms SKYLAB and LANDSAT, it was possible to establish a method for the systematic study of the dynamical regime of lagoon and marine surface waters, on coastal plain of Rio Grande do Sul. The series of multispectral images analyzed by visual and automatic techniques put in evidence spatial and temporal variations reflected in the optical properties of waters, which carry different loads of materials in suspension. The identified patterns offer a synoptic picture of phenomena of great amplitude, from which trends of circulation can be inferred, correlating the atmospheric and hydrologic variables simultaneously to the overflight of orbital vehicles.

Dejesusparada, N.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Heliospheric current sheet and its solar cycle variations

The three-dimensional structure of the heliospheric current sheet is constructed for Carrington rotations 1647, 1654, 1661, 1667, 1693, 1699, and 1719. These rotations are chosen from different epochs during the sunspot cycle 21, so that geometrical changes of the current sheet during a sunspot cycle can be inferred. Only for relatively simple neutral lines on the source surface, do the structures of the current sheet approximate those envisaged by Svalgaard and Wilcox (1976) and Thomas and Smith (1981).

Akasofu, Syun-Ichi↗

NASA NTRS1995

The global heliosphere: A parametric study

As the Pioneer 10 and 11 and Voyager 1 and 2 spacecraft continue their penetration into the outer heliosphere, more attention has been focused on the nature of the solar wind interaction with the Very Local Interstellar Medium (VLISM). Since the initial pioneering concepts of Davis in 1955 and Parker in the early 1960's both in situ and remote measurements have led to various constraints that do not fit well into a coherent picture. To provide a context for these various observable constraints, we have adapted an explicitly time-dependent, explicitly three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code to simulate the dependence of the heliospheric configuration and interaction with the VLISM on the properties of the external medium. The code also allows us to study temporal variations brought about by both short- and long-term changes in the solar wind and/or VLISM properties. We will discuss some of the initial results from this new effort and implications for the distances inferred to the termination shock and heliopause boundary. In particular, we will consider the effect of the Very Local Interstellar Magnetic Field (VLIMF) on the configuration and compare it with inferences from observations of outer heliosphere cosmic rays and the Very Low Frequency (VLF) outer heliospheric radio emissions.

McNutt, R. L., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Compositional Variation in Lunar Regolith Samples: Lateral

The composition of samples of lunar regolith collected on the Apollo and Luna missions are highly variable; the lunar meteorites, most of which are breccias of lithified regolith from unknown locations on the Moon, extend the compositional range. Some aspects of regolith composition as inferred from studies of samples that are relevant for interpretation of data obtained remotely are discussed.

Korotev, Randy L.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Meridional Variations of C2H2 and C2H6 in Jupiter's Atmosphere from Cassini CIRS Infrared Spectra

Hydrocarbons such as acetylene (C2H2) and ethane (C2H6) are important tracers in Jupiter's atmosphere, constraining our models of the chemical and dynamical processes. However, our knowledge of the vertical and meridional variations of their abundances has remained sparse. During the flyby of the Cassini spacecraft in December 2000, the Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) instrument was used to map the spatial variation of emissions from 10-1400 cm(sup -1) (1000-7 microns). In this paper we analyze a zonally-averaged set of CIRS spectra taken at the highest (0.5 cm(sup -1)) resolution, to infer atmospheric temperatures in the stratosphere at 0.5-20 mbar via the v4 band of CH4, and in the troposphere at 150-400 mbar, via the H2 absorption at 600-800 cm(sup -1). Simultaneously, we retrieve the abundances of C2H2 and C2H6 via the v5 and vg bands respectively. Tropospheric absorption and stratospheric emission are highly anti-correlated at the CIRS resolution, introducing a non-uniqueness into the retrievals, such that vertical gradient and column abundance cannot both be found without additional constraints. Assuming profile gradients from photochemical calculations, we show that the column abundance of C2H2 decreases sharply towards the poles by a factor approximately 4, while C2H6 is unchanged in the north and increasing in the south, by a factor approximately 1.8. An explanation for the meridional trends is proposed in terms of a combination of photochemistry and dynamics. Poleward, the decreasing UV flux is predicted to decrease the abundances of C2H2 and C2H6 by factors 2.7 and 3.5 respectively at a latitude 70 deg. However, the lifetime of C2H6 in the stratosphere (5 x 10(exp 9)) is much longer than the dynamical timescale for meridional motions inferred from SL-9 debris (5 x 10(exp 8 s)), and therefore the constant or rising abundance towards high latitudes likely indicates that meridional mixing dominates over photochemical effects. For C2H2, the opposite occurs, with the relatively short photochemical lifetime (3 x 10(exp 7 s)), compared to meridional mixing times, ensuring that the expected photochemical trends are visible.

Nixon, C. A.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Chuar Group of the Grand Canyon: record of breakup of Rodinia, associated change in the global carbon cycle, and ecosystem expansion by 740 Ma

The Chuar Group (approximately 1600 m thick) preserves a record of extensional tectonism, ocean-chemistry fluctuations, and biological diversification during the late Neoproterozoic Era. An ash layer from the top of the section has a U-Pb zircon age of 742 +/- 6 Ma. The Chuar Group was deposited at low latitudes during extension on the north-trending Butte fault system and is inferred to record rifting during the breakup of Rodinia. Shallow-marine deposition is documented by tide- and wave-generated sedimentary structures, facies associations, and fossils. C isotopes in organic carbon show large stratigraphic variations, apparently recording incipient stages of the marked C isotopic fluctuations that characterize later Neoproterozoic time. Upper Chuar rocks preserve a rich biota that includes not only cyanobacteria and algae, but also heterotrophic protists that document increased food web complexity in Neoproterozoic ecosystems. The Chuar Group thus provides a well-dated, high-resolution record of early events in the sequence of linked tectonic, biogeochemical, environmental, and biological changes that collectively ushered in the Phanerozoic Eon.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

NASA NTRS2013

Hyperspectral Remote Sensing of Foliar Nitrogen Content

A strong positive correlation between vegetation canopy bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF) in the near infrared (NIR) spectral region and foliar mass-based nitrogen concentration (%N) has been reported in some temperate and boreal forests. This relationship, if true, would indicate an additional role for nitrogen in the climate system via its influence on surface albedo and may offer a simple approach for monitoring foliar nitrogen using satellite data. We report, however, that the previously reported correlation is an artifact - it is a consequence of variations in canopy structure, rather than of %N. The data underlying this relationship were collected at sites with varying proportions of foliar nitrogen-poor needleleaf and nitrogen-rich broadleaf species, whose canopy structure differs considerably. When the BRF data are corrected for canopy-structure effects, the residual reflectance variations are negatively related to %N at all wavelengths in the interval 423-855 nm. This suggests that the observed positive correlation between BRF and %N conveys no information about %N. We find that to infer leaf biochemical constituents, e.g., N content, from remotely sensed data, BRF spectra in the interval 710-790 nm provide critical information for correction of structural influences. Our analysis also suggests that surface characteristics of leaves impact remote sensing of its internal constituents. This further decreases the ability to remotely sense canopy foliar nitrogen. Finally, the analysis presented here is generic to the problem of remote sensing of leaf-tissue constituents and is therefore not a specific critique of articles espousing remote sensing of foliar %N.

Knyazikhin, Yuri↗

NASA NTRS2020

A Disc-Dominated and Clumpy Circumgalactic Medium of the Milky Way Seen in X-Ray Emission

The Milky Way galaxy is surrounded by a circumgalactic medium (CGM) that may play a key role in galaxy evolution as the source of gas for star formation and a repository of metals and energy produced by star formation and nuclear activity. The CGM may also be a repository for baryons seen in the early universe, but undetected locally. The CGM has an ionized component at temperatures near 2 x 10^6 K studied primarily in the soft X-ray band. Here we report a survey of the southern Galactic sky with a soft X-ray spectrometer optimized to study diffuse soft X-ray emission. The X-ray emission is best fit with a disc-like model based on the radial profile of the surface density of molecular hydrogen, a tracer of star formation, suggesting that the X-ray emission is predominantly from hot plasma produced via stellar feedback. Strong variations in the X-ray emission on angular scales of ~10 degrees indicate that the CGM is clumpy. Addition of an extended, and possibly massive, halo component is needed to match the halo density inferred from other observations.

P Kaaret↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven prediction of scaling and ignition of inertial confinement fusion experiments

Recent advances in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) at the National Ignition Facility (NIF), including ignition and energy gain, are enabled by a close coupling between experiments and high-fidelity simulations. Neither simulations nor experiments can fully constrain the behavior of ICF implosions on their own, meaning pre- and postshot simulation studies must incorporate experimental data to be reliable. Linking past data with simulations to make predictions for upcoming designs and quantifying the uncertainty in those predictions has been an ongoing challenge in ICF research. We have developed a data-driven approach to prediction and uncertainty quantification that combines large ensembles of simulations with Bayesian inference and deep learning. The approach builds a predictive model for the statistical distribution of key performance parameters, which is jointly informed by past experiments and physics simulations. The prediction distribution captures the impact of experimental uncertainty, expert priors, design changes, and shot-to-shot variations. We have used this new capability to predict a 10× increase in ignition probability between Hybrid-E shots driven with 2.05 MJ compared to 1.9 MJ, and validated our predictions against subsequent experiments. We describe our new Bayesian postshot and prediction capabilities, discuss their application to NIF ignition and validate the results, and finally investigate the impact of data sparsity on our prediction results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1979

Seasonal and secular variation of wind streaks on Mars - An analysis of Mariner 9 and Viking data

Viking orbiter observations extending over 1 Martian year have been used in conjunction with Mariner 9 data obtained in 1971-1972 to study the seasonal and secular behavior of several kinds of wind streaks. Most bright streaks, inferred to consist of dust storm fallout in the lees of obstacles, have changed very little in form or orientation over a period of 3 Martian years. Some are extremely stable and have experienced no effective eolian action over the 3 years. A few bright streaks changed rapidly during global dust storms; these streaks are located in areas subject to both global and topographic winds. Viking images have shown for the first time that dark, erosional streaks are stable from the time of their formation after major dust storms until the onset of the next episode of major storm activity. Available evidence shows that the large, dark streaks in Oxia Palus consist of material deflated from dune fields within the associated craters. These streaks lengthened secularly since 1972; changes appear to occur episodically during southern summer. The great majority of all streaks reflect winds during the period from late southern spring to early southern fall, although some changes occur throughout the year. The global pattern of wind streaks and the variability of the streaks thus depend strongly upon the current south-north asymmetry of seasons on Mars.

Thomas, P.↗

NASA NTRS1993

CCD imaging of Comet Wilson (1987VII) - A quantitative coma analysis

Distinctive cometary components (dust, ions, and radicals) are studied on the basis of 2D, narrow-band CCD images of Comet Wilson (1987VII). The fact that Comet Wilson showed no significant structures in the neutral coma during its first perihelion passage is additional evidence for the hypothesis that dynamically new comets do not show a heterogeneous nucleus, but still have a relatively uniform surface. The deviations from the 1/rho law for the decrease of surface brightness as a function of nuclear distance are explained by a combination of short-term variations in the dust production and the effects of solar radiation pressure. The C2 production rate remains basically constant during the whole observational period, while the CN production rate decreases with increasing heliocentric distance. It is inferred that the formation of C2 might be due both to photolytic destruction of some parent molecules as well as to chemical reactions between other species.

Schulz, Rita↗

NASA NTRS1999

Modeling the QBO and SAO Driven by Gravity Waves

Hines' Doppler spread parameterization (DSP) for small scale gravity waves (GW) is applied in a global scale numerical spectral model (NSM) to describe the semi-annual and quasi-biennial oscillations (SAO and QBO) as well as the long term interannual variations that are driven by wave mean flow interactions. This model has been successful in simulating the salient features observed near the equator at altitudes above 20 km, including the QBO extension into the upper mesosphere inferred from UARS measurements. The model has now been extended to describe also the mean zonal and meridional circulations of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere that affect the equatorial QBO and its global scale extension. This is accomplished in part through tuning of the GW parameterization, and preliminary results lead to the following conclusions: (1) To reproduce the upwelling at equatorial latitudes associated with the Brewer/Dobson circulation that in part is modulated in the model by the vertical component of the Coriolis force, the eddy diffusivity in the lower stratosphere had to be enhanced and the related GW spectrum modified to bring it in closer agreement with the form recommended for the DSP. (2) To compensate for the required increase in the diffusivity, the observed QBO requires a larger GW source that is closer to the middle of the range recommended for the DSP. (3) Through global scale momentum redistribution, the above developments are conducive to extending the QBO and SAO oscillations to higher latitudes. Multi-year interannual oscillations are generated through wave filtering by the solar driven annual oscillation in the zonal circulation. (4) In a 3D version of the model, wave momentum is absorbed and dissipated by tides and planetary waves. Thus, a somewhat larger GW source is required to generate realistic amplitudes for the QBO and SAO.

Mayr, H. G.↗

NASA NTRS2002

The Influence of Planetary Wave Transport on Arctic Ozone as Observed by POAM III

Three recent Arctic winters have been unusually warm or cold compared to the 1979-2001 mean, resulting in either a warm, disturbed vortex or a cold, quiet vortex. Interannual differences n ozone transport in the lower stratospheric Arctic vortex are investigated using data from the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III satellite instrument obtained between May 1998 and April 2001. Time series of probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the FOAM data are used to identify seasonal and interannual variations in the transport processes controlling polar ozone. A major warming occurred in December, 1998, that caused the middle stratospheric vortex to be displaced from the pole for nearly a month and dissipate. Ozone transport is inferred from the PDFs and supported by potential vorticity (PV) analyses. The vortex reformed in January, 1999, filled with high O3 air from lower latitudes, which then cooled and descended. As a result, by the end of winter 1999, ozone at 500K in the vortex was 0.5-1.0 ppm higher than in the cold winter of 2000. The winter of 2000-1 had frequent wave disturbances, beginning with a fairly large event in November. However, at the end of this wave activity, the high PV core of the vortex was still intact, and by February, 03 in the vortex looked the same as in 2000. This study demonstrates that interannual variability in the 03-PV relationship can be caused by transport, independent of 03 loss by polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). Ozone in the vortex in a very disturbed winter does not necessarily represent'pre-PSC' O3 levels in other years.

Strahan, Susan↗

NASA NTRS2026

Characterizing the subglacial environment of lower Thwaites Glacier using radar modeling

Understanding the spatial heterogeneity beneath Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, is vital to projecting its impact on future sea levels. Radar-echo sounding (RES) is commonly used to infer subglacial conditions, but these data can be challenging to interpret. We assess basal heterogeneity across Thwaites Glacier by comparing RES returns to a radar backscattering simulator for over 400 km of RES data. The modeled variations in bed returned power exhibited a strong correlation with actual RES data in 40% of our simulated flight segments, which we consider evidence for a relatively homogeneous glacier bed. Other sites (40%) demonstrated improved fit quality when hydrology or substrate transitions were introduced in the bed material model. The remaining simulated segments (20%) were diagnosed as having more complex basal heterogeneity. The spatial distribution of complex heterogeneity appears to coincide with asymmetric patterns in the RES specularity content, which has been interpreted in previous studies as a signature for channelized hydrology. Conversely, the homogeneous substrate locations coincide with areas of fast-moving ice in western Thwaites. Our simulation method can isolate power variations induced by material heterogeneity vs topography, which is an important limitation of existing RES analysis methods.

Antarctic glaciology↗