Smokewise: Surrogate Modeling for Wildfire Smoke Forecasts
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Long-term monitoring of microbial communities in the rhizosphere of post-fire forests is currently one of the key knowledge gaps. Knowing the time scale of the effects is indispensable to aiding post-fire recovery in vulnerable woodlands, including holm oak forests, that are subjected to a Mediterranean climate, as is the case with forests that are found in protected areas such as the Sierra Nevada National and Natural Park in southeastern Spain. We took rhizosphere soil samples from burned and unburned holm oak trees approximately 3, 6, and 9 years after the 2005 fire that devastated almost 3500 ha in southeastern Spain. We observed that the prokaryotic communities are recovering but have not yet reached the conditions observed in the unburned forest. A common denominator between this fire and other fires is the long-term persistence of three ecosystem recovery biomarkers—specifically, higher proportions of the genera Arthrobacter, Blastococcus, and Massilia in soil microbial communities after a forest fire. These pyrophilous microbes possess remarkable resilience against adverse conditions, exhibiting traits such as xerotolerance, nitrogen mineralization, degradation of aromatic compounds, and copiotrophy in favorable conditions. Furthermore, these biomarkers thrive in alkaline environments, which persist over the long term following forest fires. The relative abundance of these biomarkers showed a decreasing trend over time, but they were still far from the values of the control condition. In conclusion, a decade does not seem to be enough for the complete recovery of the prokaryotic communities in this Mediterranean ecosystem.
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The depth, texture, and water holding capacity of the soil before the fire in the Bridge Creek area of Deschutes National Forest (1979) were determined from available aerial photography and LANDSAT MSS digital data. Three days after the fire was out, complete coverage of the burned area was acquired on 35 mm color infrared film from a near vertical or low oblique perspective. These photographs were used in assessing the condition of vegetation, and in predicting the likelihood of survival. Negatives from vertical natural photography obtained during the same flight were used to produce 3R prints from which large scale mosaics of the entire burned area were obtained. LANDSAT MSS data obtained on the day the fire was under control were used to evaluate vegetative vigor (by calculating a band 7/band 5 ratio value for each spectral class) and to determine the boundary between altered and unaltered land.
Two complementary sensors, the DAEDALUS DEI-1260 Multispectral Scanner aboard the NASA U-2 aircraft and the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer aboard National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration orbiting satellites were tested for their applicability in monitoring and predicting parameters such as fire location, temperature and rate of spread, soil heating and cooling rates, and plume characteristics and dimensions. In addition, the satellite system was tested for its ability to extend the relationships found between fire characteristics and biospheric consequences to regional and global scales. An overall system design is presented, and special requirements are documented for the application of this system for fire research and management.
K-T boundary (KTB) clays from five sites are enriched in soot and charcoal by factors of 100-1000 over Cretaceous levels, apparently due to a global fire. The soot profile nearly coincides with the Ir profile, implying that the fire was triggered by the impact. Much or all of the fuel was biomass, as indicated by the presence of retene and by the C isotopic composition. The amount of elemental C at the KTB (0.012 g/sq cm) is very large, and requires either that most of the Cretaceous biomass burned down or that the soot yield was higher than in small fires. At undisturbed sites, soot correlates tightly with Ir, As, Sb, and Zn. Apparently soot and Ir-bearing ejecta particles coagulated in the stratosphere and then scavenged additional chalcophiles from the hydrosphere. In view of this coagulation, the K-T fire would only slightly prolong the period of darkness and cold caused by impact ejecta.
Aircraft and satellite systems yield wide-area views, providing total coverage of affected areas. System developed for use aboard aircraft includes digital scanner that records data in 12 channels. Transmits data to ground station for immediate use in fighting fires. Enables researchers to estimate gaseous and particulate emissions from fires. Provides information on temperatures of flame fronts and soils, intensities and rate of spread of fires, characteristics of fuels and smoke plumes, energy-release rates, and concentrations and movements of trace gases. Data relates to heating and cooling of soils, loss of nutrients, and effects on atmospheric, terrestrial, and aquatic systems.
The current status of the reconstruction of major biomass fire events at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary is discussed. Attention is given to the sources of charcoal and soot, the identification of biomass and fossil carbon, and such ignition-related problems as delated fires, high atmospheric O2 content, ignition mechanisms, and the greenhouse-effect consequences of fire on the scale envisioned. Consequences of these factors for species extinction patterns are noted.
A remote sensing index was developed to allow improved monitoring of vegetation dryness conditions on a regional basis. This remote sensing index was rapidly prototyped at Stennis Space Center in response to drought conditions in the local area in spring 2006.
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MVDI, which effectively involves the differencing of NDMI and NDVI, appears to display increased noise that is consistent with a differencing technique. This effect masks finer variations in vegetation moisture, preventing MVDI from fulfilling the requirement of giving decision makers insight into spatial variation of fire risk. MVDI shows dependencies on land cover and phenology which also argue against its use as a fire risk proxy in an area of diverse and fragmented land covers. The conclusion of the rapid prototyping effort is that MVDI should not be implemented for SSC decision support.
Objectives include: Demonstrate capabilities of UAS to overfly and collect sensor data on widespread fires throughout Western US. Demonstrate long-endurance mission capabilities (20-hours+). Image multiple fires (greater than 4 fires per mission), to showcase extendable mission configuration and ability to either linger over key fires or station over disparate regional fires. Demonstrate new UAV-compatible, autonomous sensor for improved thermal characterization of fires. Provide automated, on-board, terrain and geo-rectified sensor imagery over OTH satcom links to national fire personnel and Incident commanders. Deliver real-time imagery (within 10-minutes of acquisition). Demonstrate capabilities of OTS technologies (GoogleEarth) to serve and display mission-critical sensor data, coincident with other pertinent data elements to facilitate information processing (WX data, ground asset data, other satellite data, R/T video, flight track info, etc).