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We do not understand nor are able to predict marine storms, particularly tropical cyclones, sufficiently well because ground-based measurements are sparse and operational numerical weather prediction models do not have sufficient spatial resolution nor accurate parameterization of the physics.
The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA-EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT started generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States beginning 1 June 2010. A companion poster presentation (Bell et al.) primarily focuses on impact results in an offline configuration of the Noah land surface model (LSM) for the 2010 warm season, comparing the SPoRT/MODIS GVF dataset to the current operational monthly climatology GVF available within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models. This paper/presentation primarily focuses on individual case studies of severe weather events to determine the impacts and possible improvements by using the real-time, high-resolution SPoRT-MODIS GVFs in place of the coarser-resolution NCEP climatological GVFs in model simulations. The NASA-Unified WRF (NU-WRF) modeling system is employed to conduct the sensitivity simulations of individual events. The NU-WRF is an integrated modeling system based on the Advanced Research WRF dynamical core that is designed to represents aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and land processes at satellite-resolved scales in a coupled simulation environment. For this experiment, the coupling between the NASA Land Information System (LIS) and the WRF model is utilized to measure the impacts of the daily SPoRT/MODIS versus the monthly NCEP climatology GVFs. First, a spin-up run of the LIS is integrated for two years using the Noah LSM to ensure that the land surface fields reach an equilibrium state on the 4-km grid mesh used. Next, the spin-up LIS is run in two separate modes beginning on 1 June 2010, one continuing with the climatology GVFs while the other uses the daily SPoRT/MODIS GVFs. Finally, snapshots of the LIS land surface fields are used to initialize two different simulations of the NU-WRF, one running with climatology LIS and GVFs, and the other running with experimental LIS and NASA/SPoRT GVFs. In this paper/presentation, case study results will be highlighted in regions with significant differences in GVF between the NCEP climatology and SPoRT product during severe weather episodes.
Qualifying materials for use in the space environment is typically accomplished with laboratory exposures to simulated UV/EUV, atomic oxygen, and charged particle radiation environments with in-situ or subsequent measurements of material properties of interest to the particular application. Choice of environment exposure levels are derived from static design environments intended to represent either mean or extreme conditions that are anticipated to be encountered during a mission. The real space environment however is quite variable. Predictions of the on orbit performance of a material qualified to laboratory environments can be done using information on 'space weather' variations in the real environment. This presentation will first review the variability of space environments of concern for material degradation and then demonstrate techniques for using test data to predict material performance in a variety of space environments from low Earth orbit to interplanetary space using historical measurements and space weather models.
A research program has been started in which operationally available weather satellites radiance data are used to reconstruct various properties of the diurnal surface energy budget over sites for which detailed estimates of the complete radiation, heat, and moisture exchange process are available. In this paper, preliminary analysis of the 1985 Gobi Desert summer period results is presented. The findings demonstrate various important relationships concerning the feasibility of retrieving the amplitudes of the diurnal surface energy budget processes for daytime and nighttime conditions.
The United States Air Force (USAF) has a proud and storied tradition of enabling significant advancements in the area of characterizing and modeling land state information. 557th Weather Wing (557 WW; DoD’s Executive Agent for Land Information) provides routine geospatial intelligence information to warfighters, planners, and decision makers at all echelons and services of the U.S. military, government and intelligence community. 557 WW and its predecessors have been home to the DoD’s only operational regional and global land data analysis systems since January 1958. As a trusted partner since 2005, Air Force Weather (AFW) has relied on the Hydrological Sciences Laboratory at NASA/GSFC to lead the interagency scientific collaboration known as the Land Information System (LIS). LIS is an advanced software framework for high performance land surface modeling and data assimilation of geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) information.
A complete documentation of Numbus 2 High Resolution infrared Radiometer data and ESSA-1 and 3 television photographs is presented for the life-time of Hurricane Inez, 1966. Ten computer produced radiation charts were analyzed in order to delineate the three dimensional cloud structure during the formative, mature and dissipating stages of this tropical cyclone. Time sections were drawn throughout the storm's life cycle to relate the warm core development and upper level outflow of the storm with their respective cloud canopies, as shown by the radiation data. Aerial reconnaissance weather reports, radar photographs and conventional weather analyses were used to complement the satellite data. A computer program was utilized to accept Nimbus 2 HRIR equivalent blackbody temperatures within historical maximum and minimum sea surface temperature limits over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
The Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Program provides U.S. small businesses of 500 or fewer employees with the opportunity for early-stage funding for research and development. Through NASA's Science Mission Directorate, the SBIR subtopic S14.01 Space Weather Research-to-Operations-to-Research (R2O2R) Technology Development and Commercial Applications supports high-priority space weather needs as outlined in the National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan (NSWSAP). There are four focus areas for which solutions are sought; these will be discussed (in no priority order): 1) space-weather forecasting technologies, techniques, and applications, 2) commercial and decision-making applications for space weather technologies, 3) space weather advanced data-driven discovery techniques, and 4) space-weather instrumentation.
NASA s Aviation Safety Program was created for the purpose of making a significant reduction in the incidents of weather related aviation accidents by improving situational awareness. The objectives of that program are being met in part through advances in weather sensor technology, and in part through advances in the communications technology that are developed for use in the National Airspace System. It is this latter element, i.e., the improvements in aviation communication technologies, that is the focus of the Weather Information Communications project. This report describes the final flight test results completed under the WINCOMM project at the NASA Glenn Research Center of the 1090 Extended Squitter (1090ES) and VDL Mode 3 (VDL-3) data links as a medium for weather data exchange. It presents the use of 1090ES to meet the program objectives of sending broadcast turbulence information and the use of VDL-3 to send graphical weather images. This report provides the test requirements and test plans, which led to flight tests, as well as final results from flight testing. The reports define the changes made to both avionics and ground-based receivers as well as the ground infrastructure to support implementation of the recommended architecture, with a focus on the issues associated with these changes.
The impact of the diagnostic initialization of divergence on short-range precipitation forecasts produced by a model, a numerical study of a storm, collaborative modeling and diagnostic studies, and a numerical investigation of the impact of SEASAT surface wind data used in the static initialization of the North Atlantic Storm of 9-10 September 1978 are summerized.
Ship and data buoy winds used for comparison in the validation of Seasat-derived winds are described in terms of the time series of hourly wind observations from the buoys and in terms of the techniques used to produce 20- and 30-min average winds from the ships. Attention is given to the comparison data, the synoptic scale wind, turbulence concepts, the data buoy winds, Ocean Weather Station PAPA, the oceanographer data, and the results from Ocean Station PAPA Ship Quadra and from the oceanographer. Sources of scatter in the comparison data are reviewed.
The Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS), flying aboard NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua satellite with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A), has been providing data for use in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and data assimilation systems (DAS) for over three years. The full AIRS data set is currently not transmitted in near-real-time (NRT) to the NWP centers. Instead, data sets with reduced spatial and spectral information are produced and made available in NRT. In this paper, we evaluate the use of different channel selections and error specifications. We achieved significant positive impact from the Aqua AIRS/AMSU-A combination in both hemispheres during our experimental time period of January 2003. The best results were obtained using a set of 156 channels that did not include any in the 6.7micron water vapor band. The latter have a large influence on both temperature and humidity analyses. If observation and background errors are not properly specified, the partitioning of temperature and humidity information from these channels will not be correct, and this can lead to a degradation in forecast skill. We found that changing the specified channel errors had a significant effect on the amount of data that entered into the analysis as a result of quality control thresholds that are related to the errors. However, changing the channel errors within a relatively small window did not significantly impact forecast skill with the 155 channel set. We also examined the effects of different types of spatial data reduction on assimilated data sets and NWP forecast skill. Whether we picked the center or the warmest AIRS pixel in a 3x3 array affected the amount of data ingested by the analysis but had a negligible impact on the forecast skill.
The effects of clutter-rejection filtering on estimating the weather parameters from pulse Doppler radar measurement data are investigated. The pulse pair method of estimating the spectrum mean and spectrum width of the weather is emphasized. The loss of sensitivity, a measure of the signal power lost due to filtering, is also considered. A flexible software tool developed to investigate these effects is described. It allows for simulated weather radar data, in which the user specifies an underlying truncated Gaussian spectrum, as well as for externally generated data which may be real or simulated. The filter may be implemented in either the time or the frequency domain. The software tool is validated by comparing unfiltered spectrum mean and width estimates to their true values, and by reproducing previously published results. The effects on the weather parameter estimates using simulated weather-only data are evaluated for five filters: an ideal filter, two infinite impulse response filters, and two finite impulse response filters. Results considering external data, consisting of weather and clutter data, are evaluated on a range cell by range cell basis. Finally, it is shown theoretically and by computer simulation that a linear phase response is not required for a clutter rejection filter preceeding pulse-pair parameter estimation.
The organization and products of the yield estimation subsystem (YES) are described with particular emphasis on meteorological data acquisition, yield estimation, crop calendars, weekly weather summaries, and project reports. During the three phases of LACIE, YES demonstrated that it is possible to use the flow of global meteorological data and provide valuable information regarding global wheat production. It was able to establish a capability to collect, in a timely manner, detailed weather data from all regions of the world, and to evaluate and convert that data into information appropriate to the project's needs.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue account for 17% of all infectious disease cases and lead to more than 700,000 deaths per year. Tracking and predicting the spread of vector-borne diseases is a vital task that could save hundreds of thousands of lives annually. Oftentimes, the first reports of vector-borne disease outbreaks occur through emails and online reporting systems long before they are officially documented. Tracking and predicting the emergence and spread of vector-borne disease outbreaks requires extracting data from these unstructured sources in combination with historical weather and climate data to understand the underlying background triggers and disease dynamics. In this work, we develop a data extraction pipeline for the online outbreak reporting website ProMED-mail that utilizes a web scraper, transformer neural network summarizer, and named entity recognizer to obtain a dataset of malaria, dengue, zika, and chikungunya outbreaks over the last 30 years. This scraped dataset was further analyzed in association with global rainfall anomalies derived from NASA’s Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM [Global Precipitation Mission] (IMERG) dataset. This preliminary analysis was to understand the effect of global rainfall patterns on the spread of vector-borne diseases. Analysis of the ProMED-mail and GPM data shows that vector-borne disease outbreaks are clustered towards the tropics and outbreaks are often amplified during the rainy seasons. Our scraped dataset can be a valuable tool in creating comprehensive georeferenced disease records for modeling and predicting future outbreaks.
The Traffic Aware Planner (TAP) is a decision support automation tool for trajectory planning and optimization intended for use on today’s flight deck. Drawing from a variety of on- and off-board data sources, TAP employs a sophisticated trajectory optimization algorithm that provides the aircrew with fuel- and time-saving reroute recommendations that are free of known conflicts with traffic, special use airspace, and severe convective weather. As this kind of weather is a significant part of the pilot’s decision-making process while planning trajectory changes en route, a series of investigations has been conducted into the integration of weather data and associated functionality into the TAP software. This paper reviews the weather data sources and functionality that have been incorporated into TAP to date, along with experience gathered in the course of the design process.
We discuss in this paper some of the problems that exist today in the fall utilization of satellite data to improve weather forecasts and we propose specific recommendations to solve them. This discussion can be viewed as an aspect of the general debate on how best to organize the transition from research to operational satellites and how to evaluate the impact of a research instrument on numerical weather predictions. A method for providing this transition is offered by the National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Preparatory Project (NPP). This mission will bridge the time between the present NOAA and Department of Defense (DOD) polar orbiting missions and the initiation of the converged NPOESS series and will evaluate some of the Earth Observing System (EOS) instruments as appropriate for operational missions. Thus, this mission can be viewed as an effort to meet the operational requirements of NOAA and DOD and the research requirements of NASA. More generally, however, it can be said that the process of going from the conception of new, more advanced instruments to their operational implementation and full utilization by the weather forecast communities is not optimal. Instruments developed for research purposes may have insufficient funding to explore their potential operational capabilities. Furthermore, instrument development programs designed for operational satellites typically have insufficient funding for assimilation algorithms needed to transform the satellite observations into data that can be used by sophisticated global weather forecast models. As a result, years often go by before satellite data are efficiently used for operational forecasts. NASA and NOAA each have unique expertise in the design of satellite instruments, their use for basic and applied research and their utilization in weather and climate research. At a time of limited resources, the two agencies must combine their efforts to work toward common goals of full utilization of satellite data. This is a challenge that requires the assimilation of myriad new data into increasingly sophisticated numerical forecast models that run on increasingly sophisticated computer systems. In section II, we briefly outline the impact of satellite data on the quality of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) forecasts. In section III, we describe the present status of the utilization of satellite data in NCEP models and the challenges that lie ahead. In section IV, we propose solutions whose goals are summarized in section V.
An analysis of LANDSAT Thematic Mapper (TM) data of the Pasterze Glacier and the Kleines Fleisskees in the Austrian Alps was undertaken and compared with meteorological data of nearby weather stations. Alpine or valley glaciers can be used to study regional and worldwide climate changes. Alpine glaciers respond relatively fast to a warming or cooling trend in temperature through an advance or a retreat of the terminus. In addition, the mass balance of the glacier is being affected. Last year two TM scenes of the Pasterze Glacier of Aug. 1984 and Aug. 1986 were used to study the difference in reflectance. This year, in addition to the scenes from last year, one MSS scene of Aug. 1976 and a TM scene from 1988 were examined for both the Pasterze Glacier and the Kleines Fleisskees. During the overpass of the LANDSAT on 6 Aug. 1988 ground truthing on the Pasterze Glacier was undertaken. The results indicate that there was considerable more reflectance in 1976 and 1984 than in 1986 and 1988. The climatological data of the weather stations Sonnblick and Rudolfshuette were examined and compared with the results found through the LANDSAT data. There were relations between the meteorological and LANDSAT data: the average temperature over the last 100 years showed an increase of .4 C, the snowfall was declining during the same time period but the overall precipitation did not reveal any significant change over the same period. With the use of an interactive image analysis computer, the LANDSAT scenes were studied. The terminus of the Pasterze Glacier retreated 348 m and the terminus of the Kleines Fleisskees 121 m since 1965. This approach using LANDSAT MSS and TM digital data in conjunction with meteorological data can be effectively used to monitor regional and worldwide climate changes.