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DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian modeling of traffic-related air pollutants: A case study of urban transportation and air quality dynamics in Columbia, South Carolina

Traffic emissions significantly impact near-road air quality and public health. This research applies a Bayesian modeling framework to investigate these impacts using high-resolution traffic and air pollutant data from an urban corridor in Columbia, South Carolina. Despite a data collection period truncated by the COVID-19 lockdown, the Bayesian approach successfully identified significant predictors and quantified model uncertainty. Employing Bayesian Model Selection and Averaging enhanced prediction accuracy and evaluated model uncertainty. Findings indicate that higher temperatures and increased moisture levels elevate particulate matter (PM 1.0 , PM 2.5 , PM 10 ) concentrations, while traffic speed significantly affects nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) levels. Specifically, higher average traffic speeds (indicative of smoother flow) correspond to lower NO 2 concentrations, suggesting that less congested conditions reduce NO 2 emissions. This study highlights the robustness of Bayesian methods for generating reliable air quality insights even under data-constrained conditions. The findings underscore the importance of traffic flow management (e.g., reducing congestion) for mitigating near-road NO 2 exposure and provide a basis for developing targeted public health strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2009

Benefits Assessment of Algorithmically Combining Generic High Altitude Airspace Sectors

In today's air traffic control operations, sectors that have traffic demand below capacity are combined so that fewer controller teams are required to manage air traffic. Controllers in current operations are certified to control a group of six to eight sectors, known as an area of specialization. Sector combinations are restricted to occur within areas of specialization. Since there are few sector combination possibilities in each area of specialization, human supervisors can effectively make sector combination decisions. In the future, automation and procedures will allow any appropriately trained controller to control any of a large set of generic sectors. The primary benefit of this will be increased controller staffing flexibility. Generic sectors will also allow more options for combining sectors, making sector combination decisions difficult for human supervisors. A sector-combining algorithm can assist supervisors as they make generic sector combination decisions. A heuristic algorithm for combining under-utilized air space sectors to conserve air traffic control resources has been described and analyzed. Analysis of the algorithm and comparisons with operational sector combinations indicate that this algorithm could more efficiently utilize air traffic control resources than current sector combinations. This paper investigates the benefits of using the sector-combining algorithm proposed in previous research to combine high altitude generic airspace sectors. Simulations are conducted in which all the high altitude sectors in a center are allowed to combine, as will be possible in generic high altitude airspace. Furthermore, the algorithm is adjusted to use a version of the simplified dynamic density (SDD) workload metric that has been modified to account for workload reductions due to automatic handoffs and Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B). This modified metric is referred to here as future simplified dynamic density (FSDD). Finally, traffic demand sets with increased air traffic demand are used in the simulations to capture the expected growth in air traffic demand by the mid-term.

Bloem, Michael↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Green Aviation: Review, Aspirations, and Operational Improvements

Air traffic affects the environment locally, regionally and globally. Estimates show that aviation is responsible for 13% of transportation-related fossil fuel consumption and 2% of all anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Although there is considerable decline in air traffic due to COVID pandemic, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) expects domestic air traffic to grow at an annual rate of 2.0 % over the next 20 years. Global air traffic is expected to grow more rapidly than domestic air traffic at an annual rate of 4.8% from 2011 to 2030. The desire to accommodate growing air traffic needs while limiting the impact of aviation on the environment has led to research in green aviation with the goals of better scientific understanding, utilization of alternative fuels, introduction of new aircraft technology, and rapid operational changes. Greenhouse gases, nitrogen oxides, and contrails generated by air traffic affect the climate in different and uncertain ways. Understanding the changes requires a hierarchy of models to deal with multiple disciplines, time scales ranging from few minutes to few hundred years and uncertainties in modeling parameters affecting both science and policy. This talk reviews earlier work at Ames on the modeling approach and an integrated capability to design aircraft operations based on a trade-off between fuel consumption, environmental goals and stakeholder values.

Green Aviation↗

NASA NTRS1972

Techniques for Forecasting Air Passenger Traffic

The basic techniques of forecasting the air passenger traffic are outlined. These techniques can be broadly classified into four categories: judgmental, time-series analysis, market analysis and analytical. The differences between these methods exist, in part, due to the degree of formalization of the forecasting procedure. Emphasis is placed on describing the analytical method.

Taneja, N.↗

NASA NTRS2014

An Overview of Current Capabilities and Research Activities in the Airspace Operations Laboratory at NASA Ames Research Center

The Airspace Operations Laboratory at NASA Ames conducts research to provide a better understanding of roles, responsibilities, and requirements for human operators and automation in future air traffic management (ATM) systems. The research encompasses developing, evaluating, and integrating operational concepts and technologies for near-, mid-, and far-term air traffic operations. Current research threads include efficient arrival operations, function allocation in separation assurance and efficient airspace and trajectory management. The AOL has developed powerful air traffic simulation capabilities, most notably the Multi Aircraft Control System (MACS) that is used for many air traffic control simulations at NASA and its partners in government, academia and industry. Several additional NASA technologies have been integrated with the AOL's primary simulation capabilities where appropriate. Using this environment, large and small-scale system-level evaluations can be conducted to help make near-term improvements and transition NASA technologies to the FAA, such as the technologies developed under NASA's Air Traffic Management Demonstration-1 (ATD-1). The AOL's rapid prototyping and flexible simulation capabilities have proven a highly effective environment to progress the initiation of trajectory-based operations and support the mid-term implementation of NextGen. Fundamental questions about accuracy requirements have been investigated as well as realworld problems on how to improve operations in some of the most complex airspaces in the US. This includes using advanced trajectory-based operations and prototype tools for coordinating arrivals to converging runways at Newark airport and coordinating departures and arrivals in the San Francisco and the New York metro areas. Looking beyond NextGen, the AOL has started exploring hybrid human/automation control strategies as well as highly autonomous operations in the air traffic control domain. Initial results indicate improved capacity, low operator workload, good situation awareness and acceptability for controllers teaming with autonomous air traffic systems. While much research and development needs to be conducted to make such concepts a reality, these approaches have the potential to truly transform the airspace system towards increased mobility, safe and efficient growth in global operations and enabling many of the new vehicles and operations that are expected over the next decades. This paper describes how the AOL currently contributes to the ongoing air transportation transformation.

simulation↗

NASA NTRS1981

ATC simulation of helicopter IFR approaches into major terminal areas using RNAV, MLS, and CDTI

The introduction of independent helicopter IFR routes at hub airports was investigated in a real time air traffic control system simulation involving a piloted helicopter simulator, computer generated air traffic, and air traffic controllers. The helicopter simulator was equipped to fly area navigation (RNAV) routes and microwave landing system approaches. Problems studied included: (1) pilot acceptance of the approach procedure and tracking accuracy; (2) ATC procedures for handling a mix of helicopter and fixed wing traffic; and (3) utility of the cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) for the helicopter in the hub airport environment. Results indicate that the helicopter routes were acceptable to the subject pilots and were noninterfering with fixed wing traffic. Merging and spacing maneuvers using CDTI were successfully carried out by the pilots, but controllers had some reservations concerning the acceptability of the CDTI procedures.

Tobias, L.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Simulation and Analysis of Technology and Operational Procedures to Reduce the Combined Effects of Emissions and Contrails

The development and evaluation of concepts and technology to support future air traffic management systems require a hierarchy of models ranging from real-time simulations to extensive field evaluations. Air traffic simulation models such as Airspace Concept Evaluation System, Center Tracon Automation System, Future Air traffic management Concept Evaluation Tool and others are used to design air traffic systems balancing the conflicting objectives of maximizing safety, meeting future demands for airports and airspace and increase efficiency of traffic flows in the presence of uncertain weather. The impact of aviation emissions and contrails on climate imposes another constraint on the design of aircraft and aviation operations. The understanding of the complex interaction between physical climate system, the carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions and aviation activity can be improved by the development of integrated assessment models that include emission and climate models together with air traffic simulations. The modeling of aircraft emissions and their interaction with each other to change the concentration levels of different gasses in the atmosphere and the resulting impact of the radiative forcing on the equilibrium of the Earth's atmosphere is complex and requires the use of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models together with three-dimensional models of carbon cycle and chemistry of other non-CO2 greenhouse gases. These models are computationally intensive and unsuitable for studies involving the generation of multiple scenarios. Simple emission and climate models, based on the input-output relations of linear systems, capture the fundamental emission to climate impact behavior by careful selection of key variables and their dynamics. The impact of various greenhouse gases depends on the total concentration, effect per unit change in atmospheric concentration and the spatial distribution of the gas. All these quantities are influenced by the lifetime of the gas. The impact of a greenhouse gas depends on the interval of assessment, which may vary from a few decades to a few centuries. Climate metrics are aimed at providing a common scale to compare different greenhouse gases. If the metrics are to be used as a tool in developing and evaluating aviation operations, they should be transparent and easy to apply. Global Warming Potential and Aggregate Global Temperature Potential are some of the commonly used metrics. This paper integrates a national-level air traffic simulation and optimization capability with simple climate models and carbon cycle models, and climate metrics to assess the impact of aviation on climate. The capability brings together metrics, which are useful in aviation operations together with metrics used in climate studies. The capability can be used to make trade-offs between extra fuel cost and reduction in climate impact. There is considerable uncertainty in our understanding of the radiative forcing associated with emissions and contrails. The parameters in the simulation can be used to evaluate the effect of various uncertainties in emission models and contrails. It can also be used to evaluate the impact of different decision horizons. Alternatively, the optimization results from the simulation can be used as inputs to other tools that monetize global climate impacts like the FAA's Aviation Environmental Portfolio Management Tool for Impacts.

impact of aviation on the environment↗

NASA NTRS2020

Will We Control the Automation, or Will It Control Us?

The purpose of air traffic control (ATC) is to provide a safe and efficient service for all air traffic. Since its inception, ATC has evolved in response to user needs, achieving exceptionally high standards of safety in a context of shifting complexity and density of air traffic operations. But predicted changes in societal demands, technological advancements and airspace-user needs create new challenges as we look to the mid and far term. This portion of the white paper presents some of the mid and far term visions, out to 2050, for upcoming challenges and changes to air traffic control demands and how Human Factors can support the development of air traffic control to safely and efficiently meet the needs of airspace users.

air traffic control↗

NASA NTRS2010

Interaction of Airspace Partitions and Traffic Flow Management Delay

To ensure that air traffic demand does not exceed airport and airspace capacities, traffic management restrictions, such as delaying aircraft on the ground, assigning them different routes and metering them in the airspace, are implemented. To reduce the delays resulting from these restrictions, revising the partitioning of airspace has been proposed to distribute capacity to yield a more efficient airspace configuration. The capacity of an airspace partition, commonly referred to as a sector, is limited by the number of flights that an air traffic controller can safely manage within the sector. Where viable, re-partitioning of the airspace distributes the flights over more efficient sectors and reduces individual sector demand. This increases the overall airspace efficiency, but requires additional resources in some sectors in terms of controllers and equipment, which is undesirable. This study examines the tradeoff of the number of sectors designed for a specified amount of traffic in a clear-weather day and the delays needed for accommodating the traffic demand. Results show that most of the delays are caused by airport arrival and departure capacity constraints. Some delays caused by airspace capacity constraints can be eliminated by re-partitioning the airspace. Analyses show that about 360 high-altitude sectors, which are approximately today s operational number of sectors of 373, are adequate for delays to be driven solely by airport capacity constraints for the current daily air traffic demand. For a marginal increase of 15 seconds of average delay, the number of sectors can be reduced to 283. In addition, simulations of traffic growths of 15% and 20% with forecasted airport capacities in the years 2018 and 2025 show that delays will continue to be governed by airport capacities. In clear-weather days, for small increases in traffic demand, increasing sector capacities will have almost no effect on delays.

Palopo, Kee↗

NASA NTRS1982

Real-time simulation of helicopter IFR approaches into major terminal areas using RNAV, MLS, and CDTI

Helicopter IFR routes at hub airports have been investigated in an air-traffic-control system simulation involving a piloted helicopter simulator, computer-generated air traffic, and air traffic controllers. Problems studied included: (1) pilot acceptance of the approach procedure and tracking accuracy; (2) ATC procedures for handling a mix of helicopter and fixed-wing traffic; and (3) utility of the Cockpit Display of Traffic Information (CDTI) for the helicopter. Results indicate that the helicopter routes were pilot acceptable and were noninterfering with fixed-wing traffic. Merging and spacing maneuvers using CDTI were successfully carried out by the pilots, but controllers had some reservations concerning CDTI.

Tobias, L.↗

NASA NTRS2004

ADS-B within a Multi-Aircraft Simulation for Distributed Air-Ground Traffic Management

Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) is an enabling technology for NASA s Distributed Air-Ground Traffic Management (DAG-TM) concept. DAG-TM has the goal of significantly increasing capacity within the National Airspace System, while maintaining or improving safety. Under DAG-TM, aircraft exchange state and intent information over ADS-B with other aircraft and ground stations. This information supports various surveillance functions including conflict detection and resolution, scheduling, and conformance monitoring. To conduct more rigorous concept feasibility studies, NASA Langley Research Center s PC-based Air Traffic Operations Simulation models a 1090 MHz ADS-B communication structure, based on industry standards for message content, range, and reception probability. The current ADS-B model reflects a mature operating environment and message interference effects are limited to Mode S transponder replies and ADS-B squitters. This model was recently evaluated in a Joint DAG-TM Air/Ground Coordination Experiment with NASA Ames Research Center. Message probability of reception vs. range was lower at higher traffic levels. The highest message collision probability occurred near the meter fix serving as the confluence for two arrival streams. Even the highest traffic level encountered in the experiment was significantly less than the industry standard "LA Basin 2020" scenario. Future studies will account for Mode A and C message interference (a major effect in several industry studies) and will include Mode A and C aircraft in the simulation, thereby increasing the total traffic level. These changes will support ongoing enhancements to separation assurance functions that focus on accommodating longer ADS-B information update intervals.

Barhydt, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2012

Prediction of Traffic Complexity and Controller Workload in Mixed Equipage NextGen Environments

Controller workload is a key factor in limiting en route air traffic capacity. Past efforts to quantify and predict workload have resulted in identifying objective metrics that correlate well with subjective workload ratings during current air traffic control operations. Although these metrics provide a reasonable statistical fit to existing data, they do not provide a good mechanism for estimating controller workload for future air traffic concepts and environments that make different assumptions about automation, enabling technologies, and controller tasks. One such future environment is characterized by en route airspace with a mixture of aircraft equipped with and without Data Communications (Data Comm). In this environment, aircraft with Data Comm will impact controller workload less than aircraft requiring voice communication, altering the close correlation between aircraft count and controller workload that exists in current air traffic operations. This paper outlines a new trajectory-based complexity (TBX) calculation that was presented to controllers during a human-in-the-loop simulation. The results showed that TBX accurately estimated the workload in a mixed Data Comm equipage environment and the resulting complexity values were understood and readily interpreted by the controllers. The complexity was represented as a "modified aircraft account" that weighted different complexity factors and summed them in such a way that the controllers could effectively treat them as aircraft count. The factors were also relatively easy to tune without an extensive data set. The results showed that the TBX approach is well suited for presenting traffic complexity in future air traffic environments.

Lee, Paul U.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Human Factors Assessment: The Passive Final Approach Spacing Tool (pFAST) Operational Evaluation

Automation to assist air traffic controllers in the current terminal and en route air traff ic environments is being developed at Ames Research Center in conjunction with the Federal Aviation Administration. This automation, known collectively as the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS), provides decision- making assistance to air traffic controllers through computer-generated advisories. One of the CTAS tools developed specifically to assist terminal area air traffic controllers is the Passive Final Approach Spacing Tool (pFAST). An operational evaluation of PFAST was conducted at the Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas, Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) facility. Human factors data collected during the test describe the impact of the automation upon the air traffic controller in terms of perceived workload and acceptance. Results showed that controller self-reported workload was not significantly increased or reduced by the PFAST automation; rather, controllers reported that the levels of workload remained primarily the same. Controller coordination and communication data were analyzed, and significant differences in the nature of controller coordination were found. Controller acceptance ratings indicated that PFAST was acceptable. This report describes the human factors data and results from the 1996 Operational Field Evaluation of Passive FAST.

Lee, Katharine K.↗

NASA NTRS2003

A USA Commercial Flight Track Database for Upper Tropospheric Aircraft Emission Studies

A new air traffic database over the contiguous United States of America (USA) has been developed from a commercially available real-time product for 2001-2003 for all non-military flights above 25,000 ft. Both individual flight tracks and gridded spatially integrated flight legs are available. On average, approximately 24,000 high-altitude flights were recorded each day. The diurnal cycle of air traffic over the USA is characterized by a broad daytime maximum with a 0130-LT minimum and a mean day-night air traffic ratio of 2.4. Each week, the air traffic typically peaks on Thursday and drops to a low Saturday with a range of 18%. Flight density is greatest during late summer and least during winter. The database records the disruption of air traffic after the air traffic shutdown during September 2001. The dataset should be valuable for realistically simulating the atmospheric effects of aircraft in the upper troposphere.

Garber, Donald P.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Relationship between Weather, Traffic and Delay Based on Empirical Methods

The steady rise in demand for air transportation over the years has put much emphasis on the need for sophisticated air traffic flow management (TFM) within the National Airspace System (NAS). The NAS refers to hardware, software and people, including runways, radars, networks, FAA, airlines, etc., involved in air traffic management (ATM) in the US. One of the metrics that has been used to assess the performance of NAS is the actual delays provided through FAA's Air Traffic Operations Network (OPSNET). The OPSNET delay data includes those reportable delays, i.e. delays of 15 minutes or more experienced by Instrument Flight Rule (IFR) flights, submitted by the FAA facilities. These OPSNET delays are caused by the application of TFM initiatives in response to, for instance, weather conditions, increased traffic volume, equipment outages, airline operations, and runway conditions. TFM initiatives such as, ground stops, ground delay programs, rerouting, airborne holding, and miles-in-trail restrictions, are actions which are needed to control the air traffic demand to mitigate the demand-capacity imbalance due to the reduction in capacity. Consequently, TFM initiatives result in NAS delays. Of all the causes, weather has been identified as the most important causal factor for NAS delays. Therefore, in order to accurately assess the NAS performance, it has become necessary to create a baseline for NAS performance and establish a model which characterizes the relation between weather and NAS delays.

Sridhar, Banavar↗

NASA NTRS2014

Dynamic Airspace Configuration

In air traffic management systems, airspace is partitioned into regions in part to distribute the tasks associated with managing air traffic among different systems and people. These regions, as well as the systems and people allocated to each, are changed dynamically so that air traffic can be safely and efficiently managed. It is expected that new air traffic control systems will enable greater flexibility in how airspace is partitioned and how resources are allocated to airspace regions. In this talk, I will begin by providing an overview of some previous work and open questions in Dynamic Airspace Configuration research, which is concerned with how to partition airspace and assign resources to regions of airspace. For example, I will introduce airspace partitioning algorithms based on clustering, integer programming optimization, and computational geometry. I will conclude by discussing the development of a tablet-based tool that is intended to help air traffic controller supervisors configure airspace and controllers in current operations.

airspace↗

NASA NTRS2018

Designing Graceful Degradation into Complex Systems: The Interaction Between Causes of Degradation and the Association with Degradation Prevention and Recovery

System resilience is critical to safety in air traffic control. An important element of maintaining resilience is the ability of systems to degrade gracefully. Of the available graceful degradation research, a majority of studies have focused primarily on technological causes of degradation only, limiting an ecologically valid understanding of the causes of degradation in air traffic control, and the preventative and mitigative strategies that enable graceful degradation. The current study aimed to address this research gap by investigating causes of degradation in air traffic control (ATC) across the broad categories of technology, the environment, and the human operator, and the potential interactions between these causes. 12 retired controllers (ATCOs - Air Traffic Control Officers) participated in semi-structured interviews focused on previous experience of causes of degradation and mitigation strategies. Findings provide an understanding of causation of degradation in air traffic control, and the prevention and mitigation strategies that moderate the relationship between cause and system effect. Findings confirmed that causes appear to interact to create compound, multiple effects on overall system performance. Findings also revealed prevention and mitigation strategies utilized to moderate the effect of the cause on the system. In order to gain an ecologically valid understanding of the causes of degradation, and effective prevention or mitigation strategies, causes from multiple categories, and the interactions between them, must be identified. Findings have implications for designers of future air traffic control systems to ensure the ability of the system to gracefully degrade, as well as risk assessment and system validation processes.

Graceful Degradation↗

NASA NTRS2012

Comparison of Predictive Modeling Methods of Aircraft Landing Speed

Expected increases in air traffic demand have stimulated the development of air traffic control tools intended to assist the air traffic controller in accurately and precisely spacing aircraft landing at congested airports. Such tools will require an accurate landing-speed prediction to increase throughput while decreasing necessary controller interventions for avoiding separation violations. There are many practical challenges to developing an accurate landing-speed model that has acceptable prediction errors. This paper discusses the development of a near-term implementation, using readily available information, to estimate/model final approach speed from the top of the descent phase of flight to the landing runway. As a first approach, all variables found to contribute directly to the landing-speed prediction model are used to build a multi-regression technique of the response surface equation (RSE). Data obtained from operations of a major airlines for a passenger transport aircraft type to the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport are used to predict the landing speed. The approach was promising because it decreased the standard deviation of the landing-speed error prediction by at least 18% from the standard deviation of the baseline error, depending on the gust condition at the airport. However, when the number of variables is reduced to the most likely obtainable at other major airports, the RSE model shows little improvement over the existing methods. Consequently, a neural network that relies on a nonlinear regression technique is utilized as an alternative modeling approach. For the reduced number of variables cases, the standard deviation of the neural network models errors represent over 5% reduction compared to the RSE model errors, and at least 10% reduction over the baseline predicted landing-speed error standard deviation. Overall, the constructed models predict the landing-speed more accurately and precisely than the current state-of-the-art.

Diallo, Ousmane H.↗