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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Tree Line Structure and Dynamics at the Northern Limit of the Larch Forest: Anabar Plateau, Siberia, Russia

The goal of the study was to provide an analysis of climate impact before, during, and after the Little Ice Age (LIA) on the larch (Larix gmelinii) tree line at the northern extreme of Siberian forests. Recent decadal climate change impacts on the tree line, regeneration abundance, and age structure were analyzed. The location of the study area was within the forest-tundra ecotone (elevation range 170-450 m) in the Anabar Plateau, northern Siberia. Field studies were conducted along elevational transects. Tree natality/mortality and radial increment were determined based on dendrochronology analyses. Tree morphology, number of living and subfossil trees, regeneration abundance, and age structure were studied. Locations of pre-LIA, LIA, and post-LIA tree lines and refugia boundaries were established. Long-term climate variables and drought index were included in the analysis. It was found that tree mortality from the 16th century through the beginning of the 19th century caused a downward tree line recession. Sparse larch stands experienced deforestation, transforming into tundra with isolated relict trees. The maximum tree mortality and radial growth decrease were observed to have occurred at the beginning of 18th century. Now larch, at its northern boundary in Siberia, is migrating into tundra areas. Upward tree migration was induced by warming in the middle of the 19th century. Refugia played an important role in repopulation of the forest-tundra ecotone by providing a seed source and shelter for recruitment of larch regeneration. Currently this ecotone is being repopulated mainly by tree cohorts that were established after the 1930s. The last two decades of warming did not result in an acceleration of regeneration recruitment because of increased drought conditions. The regeneration line reached (but did not exceed) the pre-LIA tree line location, although contemporary tree heights and stand densities are comparatively lower than in the pre-LIA period. The mean rate of tree line upward migration has been about 0.35 m/yr (with a range of 0.21-0.58), which translates to a tree line response to temperature of about 55 m/deg C.

Northern Limit↗
DOE OSTI2022

A framework for feasibility-level validation of high-resolution wave hindcast models

The value of long-term wave hindcasts for investigating wave climates, wave energy resources, and extreme wave conditions has motivated research developing, calibrating and validating wave hindcast models. Past hindcast model validation studies examined the accuracy in modeling bulk wave parameters of overall sea states without considering the dependency of the model's skill within different sea states. In the present study, a framework for wave hindcast model validation is developed by examining the model accuracy for the most frequently occurring sea states, sea states contributing the most energy to total wave power, sea states associated with hurricane events, and those with the largest model error. Here, validations using bulk wave parameters and frequency-directional spectra at these key sea states and extreme wave conditions based on univariate and bivariate-contour methods provide insights to improve model accuracy, identifying the model's strong and weak points, and pathways for improvement, e.g., modeling wave-current interactions and adjusting wind data. This study adds to a growing body of research demonstrating that a carefully calibrated and verified spectral wave hindcast model can be used to estimate key wave energy parameters over a wide range of wave energy climates, as well as their spatial, temporal, frequency, directional, and probabilistic distributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cold Climate Degradation: An Analysis of Double-Axis Tracked, E-W Vertical, and Fixed-Tilt Photovoltaic Deployments in Alaska

As countries around the world transition towards renewable energy, there is increasing interest in using photovoltaic (PV) technologies to help decarbonize remote northern communities due to their scalability and affordability. However, a major barrier towards large-scale adoption of PV in cold climates is performance uncertainty under extreme environmental conditions including snowfall, freeze-thaw cycles, and high wind loads. Existing literature on PV degradation rates in the North is relatively limited, with published degradation rates varying between -0.2%/year (Sweden) to -1.3%/year (Scotland). At this workshop, we will present preliminary results on the long-term performance of two diverse photovoltaic sites located in Fairbanks, Alaska at 64.8 degrees N: a monofacial Al-BSF double-axis tracking site maintained by the Cold Climate Housing Research Center (CCHRC), and a bifacial PERC/SHJ E-W vertical and south-facing fixed-tilt site maintained by the Alaska Center Energy and Power (ACEP). CCHRC data has been collected over a period of 15 years, while ACEP site data has been collected over 4 years. Using the degradation analysis tool, RdTools, we will present annual system degradation rates, seasonal performance ratio, and identify potential cold climate failure mechanisms for commercially available PV technologies. This analysis will add to existing literature by directly comparing the performance of multiple PV configurations in Alaska.

bifacial↗
NASA NTRS2003

Linkages between the Urban Environment and Earth's Climate System

Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025 60% of the world s population will live in cities (UNFP, 1999). Though urban areas are local in scale, human activity in urban environments has impacts at local, to global scale by changing atmospheric composition; impacting components of the water cycle; and modifying the carbon cycle 2nd ecosystems. For example, urban dwellers are undoubtedly familiar with "high" ozone pollution days, flash flooding in city streets, or heat stress on summer days. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-climate system is incomplete. Better understanding of how the Earth s weather, oceans, and land work together and the influence of the urban environment on this climate system is critical. This paper highlights some of the major and current issues involving interactions between urban environments and the Earth's climate system. It also captures some of the most current thinking and findings of the authors and key experts in the field.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗
NASA NTRS2000

Examination of a Deep Subsurface Mars Polar Cap Mission to Address Climate History

We have examined the technological readiness of a mission to the Mars north polar area for the science objective of developing a climate history. We argue that the polar regions are scientifically extremely important mission sites from the perspectives of both climate history and astrobiology and that a polar deep subsurface mission would constitute a serious challenge and significant accomplishment. Thus a key question is: What is the technical readiness status of such a mission? Additional information is contained in original extended abstract.

Carsey, F. D.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Temperature and moisture conditions for life in the extreme arid region of the Atacama desert: four years of observations including the El Nino of 1997-1998

The Atacama along the Pacific Coast of Chile and Peru is one of the driest and possibly oldest deserts in the world. It represents an extreme habitat for life on Earth and is an analog for life in dry conditions on Mars. We report on four years (September 1994-October 1998) of climate and moisture data from the extreme arid region of the Atacama. Our data are focused on understanding moisture sources and their role in creating suitable environments for photosynthetic microorganisms in the desert surface. The average air temperature was 16.5 degrees C and 16.6 degrees C in 1995 and 1996, respectively. The maximum air temperature recorded was 37.9 degrees C, and the minimum was -5.7 degrees C. Annual average sunlight was 336 and 335 W m(-2) in 1995 and 1996, respectively. Winds averaged a few meters per second, with strong fohn winds coming from the west exceeding 12 m s(-1). During our 4 years of observation there was only one significant rain event of 2.3 mm, which occurred near midnight local time. We suggest that this event was a rainout of a heavy fog. It is of interest that the strong El Nino of 1997-1998 brought heavy rainfall to the deserts of Peru, but did not bring significant rain to the central Atacama in Chile. Dew occurred at our station frequently following high nighttime relative humidity, but is not a significant source of moisture in the soil or under stones. Groundwater also does not contribute to surface moisture. Only the one rain event of 2.3 mm resulted in liquid water in the soil and beneath stones for a total of only 65-85 h over 4 years. The paucity of liquid water under stones is consistent with the apparent absence of hypolithic (under-stone) cyanobacteria, the only known primary producers in such extreme deserts.

Biogenesis↗
NASA NTRS2016

Aging Will Amplify the Heat-Related Mortality Risk Under a Changing Climate: Projection for the Elderly in Beijing, China

An aging population could substantially enhance the burden of heat-related health risks in a warming climate because of their higher susceptibility to extreme heat health effects. Here, we project heatrelated mortality for adults 65 years and older in Beijing China across 31 downscaled climate models and 2 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Under a scenario of medium population and RCP8.5, by the 2080s, Beijing is projected to experience 14,401 heat-related deaths per year for elderly individuals, which is a 264.9% increase compared with the 1980s. These impacts could be moderated through adaptation. In the 2080s, even with the 30% and 50% adaptation rate assumed in our study, the increase in heat-related death is approximately 7.4 times and 1.3 times larger than in the 1980s respectively under a scenario of high population and RCP8.5. These findings could assist countries in establishing public health intervention policies for the dual problems of climate change and aging population. Examples could include ensuring facilities with large elderly populations are protected from extreme heat (for example through back-up power supplies and/or passive cooling) and using databases and community networks to ensure the home-bound elderly are safe during extreme heat events.

age factor↗
DOE OSTI2023

The influence of natural variability on extreme monsoons in Pakistan

The monsoons in Pakistan have been exceptionally harsh in recent decades, resulting in extraordinary drought conditions and record flooding events. The changing characteristics of extreme events are widely attributed to climate change. However, given this region’s long history of floods and droughts, the role of natural climate variability cannot be rejected without a careful diagnosis. Here, we examine how oceanic and atmospheric variability has contributed to unusual precipitation distributions in West South Asia. Variations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and northern Arabian Sea, and internal atmospheric variability related to the circumglobal teleconnection pattern and the subtropical westerly jet stream, explain more than 70% of monthly summer precipitation variability in the 21st century. Several of these forcings have co-occurred with record strength during episodes of extreme monsoons, which have exacerbated the overall effect. Climate change may have contributed to increased variability and the in-phase co-occurrences of the identified mechanisms, but further research is required to confirm any such connection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2017

NASA Earth Observations Informing Energy Management Decision Making

The Energy Sector is experiencing increasing impacts from severe weather and shifting climatic trends, as well as facing a changing political climate, adding uncertainty for stakeholders as they make short- and long-term planning investments. Climate changes such as prolonged extreme heat and drought (leading to wildfire spread, for example), sea level rise, and extreme storms are changing the ways that utilities operate. Energy infrastructure located in coastal or flood-prone areas faces inundation risks, such as damage to energy facilities. The use of renewable energy resources is increasing, requiring more information about their intermittency and spatial patterns. In light of these challenges, public and private stakeholders have collaborated to identify potential data sources, tools, and programmatic ideas. For example, utilities across the country are using cutting-edge technology and data to plan for and adapt to these changes. In the Federal Government, NASA has invested in preliminary work to identify needs and opportunities for satellite data in energy sector application, and the Department of Energy has similarly brought together stakeholders to understand the landscape of climate vulnerability and resilience for utilities and others. However, have these efforts improved community-scale resilience and adaptation efforts? Further, some communities are more vulnerable to climate change and infrastructure impacts than others. This session has two goals. First, panelists seek to share existing and ongoing efforts related to energy management. Second, the session seeks to engage with attendees via group knowledge exchange to connect national energy management efforts to local practice for increased community resilience.

Eckman, Richard↗
DOE OSTI2025

Complementing Dynamical Downscaling With Super‐Resolution Convolutional Neural Networks

Despite advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods for climate downscaling, significant challenges remain for their practicality in climate research. Current AI-methods exhibit notable limitations, such as limited application in downscaling Global Climate Models (GCMs), and accurately representing extremes. To address these challenges, we implement an AI-based methodology using super-resolution convolutional neural networks (SRCNN), trained and evaluated on 40 years of daily precipitation data from a reanalysis and a high-resolution dynamically downscaled counterpart. The dynamical downscaled simulations, constrained using spectral nudging, enable the replication of historical events at a higher resolution. This allows the SRCNN to emulate dynamical downscaling effectively. Modifications, such as incorporating elevation data and data pre-processing enhances overall model performance, while using exponential and quantile loss functions improve the simulation of extremes. Our findings show SRCNN models efficiently and skillfully downscale precipitation from GCMs. Future work will expand this methodology to downscale additional variables for future climate projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2015

A 12,000-Yr Pollen Record off Cape Hatteras: Pollen Sources and Mechanisms of Pollen Dispersion

Integrating both marine and terrestrial signals from the same sediment core is one of the primary challenges for understanding the role of ocean-atmosphere coupling throughout past climate changes. It is therefore vital to understand how the pollen signal of a given marine record reflects the vegetation changes of the neighboring continent. The comparison between the pollen record of marine core JPC32 (KNR178JPC32) and available terrestrial pollen sequences from eastern North America over the last 12,170 years indicates that the pollen signature off Cape Hatteras gives an integrated image of the regional vegetation encompassing the Pee Dee river, Chesapeake and Delaware hydrographic basins and is reliable in reconstructing the past climate of the adjacent continent. Extremely high quantities of pollen grains included in the marine sediments off Cape Hatteras were transferred from the continent to the sea, at intervals 10,100-8800 cal yr BP, 8300-7500 cal yr BP, 5800- 4300 cal yr BP and 2100-730 cal yr BP, during storm events favored by episodes of rapid sea-level rise in the eastern coast of US. In contrast, pollen grains export was reduced during 12,170-10,150 cal yr BP and 4200- 2200 cal yr BP, during episodes of intense continental dryness and slow sea level rise episodes or lowstands in the eastern coast of US. The near absence of reworked pollen grains in core JPC32 contrasts with the high quantity of reworked material in nearby but deeper located marine sites, suggesting that the JPC32 recordwas not affected by the DeepWestern Boundary Current (DWBC) since the end of the Younger Dryas and should be considered a key site for studying past climate changes in the western North Atlantic.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fallowed agricultural lands dominate anthropogenic dust sources in California

Air pollution remains a major problem in many parts of California, significantly impacting public health and regional climate. However, the contribution of anthropogenic dust from agricultural sources, among major pollutants in California’s semi-arid Central Valley, remains largely unclear. Here, we used the Cropland Data Layer from the U.S. Department of Agriculture to identify crop types and land use/cover and leveraged satellite-derived estimates of major dust events between 2008 and 2022 over California. We identified fallowed land—an unplanted agricultural land parcel—as a key anthropogenic dust source in California. Specifically, we find that the Central Valley accounts for about 77% of total fallowed land areas in California, where they are associated with about 88% of major anthropogenic dust events. We also find that the geographic coverage of these fallowed lands expanded between 2008 and 2022 with associated increasing anthropogenic dust activities. Additionally, these anthropogenic dust activities are sensitive to the drought severity over the fallowed lands, with potential cumulative effects on downstream dust burden during prolonged multi-year drought conditions. Overall, our results have important implications for public health, including increased risk for Valley fever and for regional climates, such as increases in extreme precipitation and snowmelt over the Sierra Nevada.

Climate sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

Roadmap for the future of extreme wildfire events

Background Extreme wildfire events (EWEs) represent a growing threat globally, posing substantial risks to ecosystems, human communities, and infrastructure. Despite increased recognition of their ecological, social, and economic significance, current definitions of EWEs vary widely, reflecting disciplinary biases and regional contexts. This article emerges from an interdisciplinary workshop convened to reassess and refine the definition of EWEs, examine their impacts across ecological and social dimensions, and identify critical knowledge gaps impeding our understanding of these infrequent but important events. Results Our synthesis highlights significant limitations with existing definitions, particularly their reliance on subjective thresholds and their emphasis on extreme fire behavior alone. EWEs encompass a spectrum of complex, multi-dimensional phenomena that extend beyond immediate biophysical characteristics to include cumulative social, economic, and ecological impacts. These impacts often manifest over extended timeframes and include hazardous environmental contamination, severe geomorphic disturbances, ecosystem transformations, and unintended consequences of post-fire management actions. Current wildfire modeling frameworks inadequately capture these compounding factors, particularly the interactions among social systems, ecological conditions, and extreme fire behavior. To overcome these issues, we advocate for an interdisciplinary and context-sensitive approach to defining and studying EWEs. This revised definition emphasizes wildfires exhibiting anomalies in fire behavior, ecological outcomes, or social impacts relative to historically observed baselines, accommodating variability across different geographic regions and ecological settings. Conclusions Adopting an interdisciplinary framework that integrates biophysical and social sciences will enhance the predictive capability of wildfire models and improve resilience planning and response strategies. Filling identified knowledge gaps—such as limited high-quality empirical fire behavior data and insufficient integration of social dynamics into modeling—will better prepare communities and ecosystems to cope with and adapt to EWEs. This inclusive approach underscores the necessity for collaboration across disciplines and sectors, essential to managing extreme wildfires in an era of increasing climatic and ecological uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Soil viral diversity, ecology and climate change

Soil viruses are highly abundant and have important roles in the regulation of host dynamics and soil ecology. Climate change is resulting in unprecedented changes to soil ecosystems and the life forms that reside there, including viruses. In this Review, we explore our current understanding of soil viral diversity and ecology, and we discuss how climate change (such as extended and extreme drought events or more flooding and altered precipitation patterns) is influencing soil viruses. Finally, here, we provide our perspective on future research needs to better understand how climate change will impact soil viral ecology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1991

Volcanic effects on climate

Volcanic eruptions which inject large amounts of sulfur-rich gas into the stratosphere produce dust veils which last years and cool the earth's surface. At the same time, these dust veils absorb enough solar radiation to warm the stratosphere. Since these temperature changes at the earth's surface and in the stratosphere are both in the opposite direction of hypothesized effects from greenhouse gases, they act to delay and mask the detection of greenhouse effects on the climate system. Tantalizing recent research results have suggested regional effects of volcanic eruptions, including effects on El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In addition, a large portion of the global climate change of the past 100 years may be due to the effects of volcanoes, but a definite answer is not yet clear. While effects of several years were demonstrated with both data studies and numerical models, long-term effects, while found in climate model calculations, await confirmation with more realistic models. Extremely large explosive prehistoric eruptions may have produced severe weather and climate effects, sometimes called a 'volcanic winter'. Complete understanding of the above effects of volcanoes is hampered by inadequacies of data sets on volcanic dust veils and on climate change. Space observations can play an increasingly important role in an observing program in the future. The effects of volcanoes are not adequately separated from ENSO events, and climate modeling of the effects of volcanoes is in its infancy. Specific suggestions are made for future work to improve the knowledge of this important component of the climate system.

Robock, Alan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing the understanding of coastal disturbances with a network-of-networks approach

Coastal ecosystems are at the nexus of many high priority challenges in environmental sciences, including predicting the influences of compounding disturbances exacerbated by climate change on biogeochemical cycling. Extreme events such as hurricanes, flooding, landslides, and wildfires influence biogeochemical cycling in these systems. However, while research in coastal science is fundamentally transdisciplinary – as drivers of biogeochemical and ecological processes often span scientific and environmental domains – traditional place-based approaches are still often employed to understand coastal ecosystems. In this perspective, we argue that integration among distributed research sites from a macrosystem perspective is crucial to understand how compounding disturbances affect coastal ecosystems. We identify a roadmap for the implementation of an integrated network-of-networks framework that leverages existing research network sites in coastal ecosystems to advance continental-scale process understanding for studying extreme events and global change. We also identify specific ways that existing research efforts can maximize mutual benefit, and where additional infrastructure investments might increase return-on-investment along the coast, using the coastal continental US as a case study.

Myers-Pigg, Allison N. [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)]↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity in the High‐Resolution Community Atmosphere Model

Abstract High‐resolution climate models (∼28 km grid spacing) can permit realistic simulations of tropical cyclones (TCs), thus enabling their investigation in relation to the climate system. On the global scale, previous works have demonstrated that the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) version 5 presents a reasonable TC climatology under prescribed present‐day (1980–2005) forcing. However, for the Western North Pacific (WNP) region, known biases in simulated TC genesis frequency and location under‐represent the basin's dominant share in observations. This study addresses these model biases in WNP by evaluating WNP TCs in a decadal simulation, and exploring potential improvements through nudging experiments. Among the major environmental controls of TC genesis, the lack of mid‐level moisture is identified as the leading cause of the deficit in simulated WNP TC genesis over the Pacific Warm Pool. Subsequent seasonal experiments explore the effect of constraining the large‐scale environment on TC development by nudging WNP temperature field toward reanalysis at various strengths. Temperature nudging elicits a significant response in TC genesis and intensity development, as well as in moisture and convection over the Warm Pool. These responses are sensitive to the choice of nudging timescale. Overall, the nudging experiments demonstrate that improvements in the large‐scale environment can lead to improvements in simulated TCs, suggesting future model developments in relation to model physics. In this way, the potential improvements in model fidelity will contribute to the understanding of how the mean state of current or future climates may give rise to extremes such as TCs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗