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At least 523 records · Page 29

Reconstruction of steps on the Cu(111) surface induced by sulfur

A rich menagerie of structures is identified at 5 K following adsorption of low coverages (≤0.05 monolayers) of S on Cu(111) at room temperature. This paper emphasizes the reconstructions at the steps. The A-type close-packed step has 1 row of S atoms along its lower edge, where S atoms occupy alternating pseudo-fourfold-hollow (p4fh) sites. Additionally, there are 2 rows of S atoms of equal density on the upper edge, bridging a row of extra Cu atoms, together creating an extended chain. The B-type close-packed step exhibits an even more complex reconstruction, in which triangle-shaped groups of Cu atoms shift out of their original sites and form a base for S adsorption at (mostly) 4fh sites. We propose a mechanism by which these triangles could generate Cu–S complexes and short chains like those observed on the terraces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Determining the Three-Dimensional Structures of Silica-Supported Metal Complexes from the Ground Up

The immobilization of molecularly precise metal complexes to substrates, such as silica, provides an attractive platform for the design of active sites in heterogeneous catalysts. Specific steric and electronic variations of the ligand environment enable the development of structure–activity relationships and the knowledge-driven design of catalysts. At present, however, the three-dimensional environment of the precatalyst, much less the active site, is generally not known for heterogeneous single-site catalysts. We explored the degree to which NMR-based surface-to-complex interatomic distances could be used to solve the three-dimensional structures of three silica-supported metal complexes. Furthermore, the structure solution revealed unexpected features related to the environment around the metal that would be difficult to discern otherwise. This approach appears to be highly robust and, due to its simplicity, is readily applied to most single-site catalysts with little extra effort.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Quantitative Sum-Frequency Generation Vibrational Spectroscopy of Molecular Surfaces and Interfaces: Lineshape, Polarization and Orientation

Sum-frequency generation vibrational spectroscopy (SFG) can provide detailed information and understanding of molecular vibrational spectroscopy, orientational and conformational structure, and interactions of molecular surfaces and interfaces, through quantitative measurement and analysis. In this review, we present the current status and discuss the main developments on the measurement of intrinsic SFG spectral lineshape, formulations for polarization measurement and orientation analysis of the SFG-VS spectra. The main focus is to present a coherent formulation and discuss the main concepts or issues that can help to make SFG-VS a quantitative analytical and research tool in revealing the chemistry and physics of complex molecular surface and interface.

Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory↗

Toward Accurate Adsorption Energetics on Clay Surfaces

Clay minerals are ubiquitous in nature, and the manner in which they interact with their surroundings has important industrial and environmental implications. Consequently, a molecular-level understanding of the adsorption of molecules on clay surfaces is crucial. In this regard computer simulations play an important role, yet the accuracy of widely used empirical force fields (FF) and density functional theory (DFT) exchange-correlation functionals is often unclear in adsorption systems dominated by weak interactions. Herein we present results from quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) for water and methanol adsorption on the prototypical clay kaolinite. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time QMC has been used to investigate adsorption at a complex, natural surface such as a clay. As well as being valuable in their own right, the QMC benchmarks obtained provide reference data against which the performance of cheaper DFT methods can be tested. Indeed using various DFT exchange-correlation functionals yields a very broad range of adsorption energies, and it is unclear a priori which evaluation is better. QMC reveals that in the systems considered here it is essential to account for van der Waals (vdW) dispersion forces since this alters both the absolute and relative adsorption energies of water and methanol. We show, via FF simulations, that incorrect relative energies can lead to significant changes in the interfacial densities of water and methanol solutions at the kaolinite interface. Despite the clear improvements offered by the vdW-corrected and the vdW-inclusive functionals, absolute adsorption energies are often overestimated, suggesting that the treatment of vdW forces in DFT is not yet a solved problem.

Chemistry↗

A periodic energy decomposition analysis method for the investigation of chemical bonding in extended systems

The development and first applications of a new periodic energy decomposition analysis (pEDA) scheme for extended systems based on the Kohn-Sham approach to density functional theory are described. The pEDA decomposes the bonding energy between two fragments (e.g., the adsorption energy of a molecule on a surface) into several well-defined terms: preparation, electrostatic, Pauli repulsion, and orbital relaxation energies. This is complemented by consideration of dispersion interactions via a pairwise scheme. One major extension toward a previous implementation [Philipsen and Baerends, J. Phys. Chem. B 110, 12470 (2006)] lies in the separate discussion of electrostatic and Pauli and the addition of a dispersion term. The pEDA presented here for an implementation based on atomic orbitals can handle restricted and unrestricted fragments for 0D to 3D systems considering periodic boundary conditions with and without the determination of fragment occupations. For the latter case, reciprocal space sampling is enabled. The new method gives comparable results to established schemes for molecular systems and shows good convergence with respect to the basis set (TZ2P), the integration accuracy, and k-space sampling. Four typical bonding scenarios for surface-adsorbate complexes were chosen to highlight the performance of the method representing insulating (CO on MgO(001)), metallic (H{sub 2} on M(001), M = Pd, Cu), and semiconducting (CO and C{sub 2}H{sub 2} on Si(001)) substrates. These examples cover diverse substrates as well as bonding scenarios ranging from weakly interacting to covalent (shared electron and donor acceptor) bonding. The results presented lend confidence that the pEDA will be a powerful tool for the analysis of surface-adsorbate bonding in the future, enabling the transfer of concepts like ionic and covalent bonding, donor-acceptor interaction, steric repulsion, and others to extended systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Interdependent Dynamics of LAI-Albedo across the Roofing Landscapes: Mongolian and Tibetan Plateaus

The Mongolian Plateau (MP) and Tibetan Plateau (TP) have experienced higher-than-global average warming in recent decades, resulting in many significant changes in ecosystem structure and function. Among them are the leaf area index (LAI) and albedo, which play a fundamental role in understanding many causes and consequences of land surface processes and climate. Here, we focused on the spatiotemporal changes of LAI, albedo, and their spatiotemporal relationships on the two roofing landscapes in Eurasia. Based on the MODIS products, we investigated the spatiotemporal changes of albedo( VIS, NIR and SHO ) and LAI from 2000 through 2016. We found that there existed a general negative logarithmic relationship between LAI and three measures of albedo on both plateaus. No significant relationship was found for LAI-albedo NIR on the TP, due to more complex land surface canopy characteristics affected by the NIR reflection there. During 2000–2016, overall, annual mean LAI increased significantly by 119.40 × 10 3 km 2 on the MP and by 28.35 × 10 3 km 2 on the TP, while the decreased areas for annual mean albedoVIS were 585.59 × 10 3 km 2 and 235.73 × 10 3 km 2 on the MP and TP, respectively. More importantly, the LAI-albedo relationships varied substantially across the space and over time, with mismatches found in some parts of the landscapes. Substantial additional efforts with observational and/or experimental investigations are needed to explore the underlying mechanisms responsible for these relationships, including the influences of vegetation characteristics and disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimation of k-ε parameters using surrogate models and jet-in-crossflow data

We demonstrate a Bayesian method that can be used to calibrate computationally expensive 3D RANS (Reynolds Av- eraged Navier Stokes) models with complex response surfaces. Such calibrations, conditioned on experimental data, can yield turbulence model parameters as probability density functions (PDF), concisely capturing the uncertainty in the parameter estimates. Methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimate the PDF by sampling, with each sample requiring a run of the RANS model. Consequently a quick-running surrogate is used instead to the RANS simulator. The surrogate can be very difficult to design if the model's response i.e., the dependence of the calibration variable (the observable) on the parameter being estimated is complex. We show how the training data used to construct the surrogate can be employed to isolate a promising and physically realistic part of the parameter space, within which the response is well-behaved and easily modeled. We design a classifier, based on treed linear models, to model the "well-behaved region". This classifier serves as a prior in a Bayesian calibration study aimed at estimating 3 k - ε parameters ( C μ , C ε2 , C ε1 ) from experimental data of a transonic jet-in-crossflow interaction. The robustness of the calibration is investigated by checking its predictions of variables not included in the cal- ibration data. We also check the limit of applicability of the calibration by testing at off-calibration flow regimes. We find that calibration yield turbulence model parameters which predict the flowfield far better than when the nomi- nal values of the parameters are used. Substantial improvements are still obtained when we use the calibrated RANS model to predict jet-in-crossflow at Mach numbers and jet strengths quite different from those used to generate the ex- perimental (calibration) data. Thus the primary reason for poor predictive skill of RANS, when using nominal values of the turbulence model parameters, was parametric uncertainty, which was rectified by calibration. Post-calibration, the dominant contribution to model inaccuraries are due to the structural errors in RANS.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Keck/NIRC2 Imaging of the Warped, Asymmetric Debris Disk Around HD 32297

We present Keck/NIRC2 Ks band high-contrast coronagraphic imaging of the luminous debris disk around the nearby, young A star HD 32297 resolved at a projected separation of r = 0.3-2.5 arcse (approx 35-280 AU). The disk is highly warped to the north and exhibits a complex, "wavy" surface brightness profile interior to r approx 110 AU, where the peaks/plateaus in the profiles are shifted between the NE and SW disk lobes. The SW side of the disk is 50 - 100% brighter at r = 35 - 80 AU, and the location of its peak brightness roughly coincides with the disk's mm emission peak. Spectral energy distribution modeling suggests that HD 32297 has at least two dust populations that may originate from two separate belts likely at different locations, possibly at distances coinciding with the surface brightness peaks. A disk model for a single dust belt including a phase function with two components and a 5-10 AU pericenter offset explains the disk's warped structure and reproduces some of the surface brightness profile's shape (e.g. the overall "wavy" profile, the SB peak/plateau shifts) but more poorly reproduces the disk's brightness asymmetry. Although there may be alternate explanations, agreement between the SW disk brightness peak and disk's peak mm emission is consistent with an overdensity of very small, sub-blowout-sized dust and large, 0.1-1 mm-sized grains at approx 45 AU tracing the same parent population of planetesimals. New near-IR and submm observations may be able to clarify whether even more complex grain scattering properties or dynamical sculpting by an unseen planet are required to explain HD 32297's disk structure.

Currie, Thayne↗

Remotely sensed physical property estimation from powder contaminated surfaces

It is the intent of this paper to demonstrate the veracity of a method to estimate the total solid contaminant mass present on a sparsely coated surface encompassing a pixel from longwave infrared spectra. Sparsely coated surfaces create complex radiometry due to the interactions of electromagnetic energy between intimate materials. Current algorithms can be used on intimate mixtures to identify the abundances of materials in a pixel, but they cannot provide additional property information. Radiative transfer models can create mixture signatures, but only with a set of well-characterized physical parameters that are typically not known or are difficult to retrieve. Finally, the approach described here creates a parameter inversion model from a radiative transfer model and uses empirically measured mixture data to retrieve physical characteristics of the contaminated surface and derive a total contaminant mass present.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Retention mechanisms of citric acid in ternary kaolinite-Fe(III)-citrate acid systems using Fe K-edge EXAFS and L 3,2 -edge XANES spectroscopy

Organic carbon (OC) stability in tropical soils is strongly interlinked with multivalent cation interaction and mineral association. Low molecular weight organic acids (LMWOAs) represent the readily biodegradable OC. Therefore, investigating retention mechanisms of LMWOAs in mineral-cation-LMWOAs systems is critical to understanding soil C cycling. Given the general acidic conditions and dominance of kaolinite in tropical soils, we investigated the retention mechanisms of citric acid (CA) in kaolinite-Fe(III)-CA systems with various Fe/CA molar ratios at pH ~3.5 using Fe K-edge EXAFS and L- 3,2 -edge XANES techniques. With Fe/CA molar ratios >2, the formed ferrihydrite mainly contributed to CA retention through adsorption and/or coprecipitation. With Fe/CA molar ratios from 2 to 0.5, ternary complexation of CA to kaolinite via a five-coordinated Fe(III) bridge retained higher CA than ferrihydrite-induced adsorption and/or coprecipitation. With Fe/CA molar ratios ≤ 0.5, kaolinite-Fe(III)-citrate complexation preferentially occurred, but less CA was retained than via outer-sphere kaolinite-CA complexation. This study highlighted the significant impact of varied Fe/CA molar ratios on CA retention mechanisms in kaolinite-Fe(III)-CA systems under acidic conditions, and clearly showed the important contribution of Fe-bridged ternary complexation on CA retention. In conclusion, these findings will enhance our understanding of the dynamics of CA and other LMWOAs in tropical soils.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Keck/NIRC2 Imaging of the Warped, Asymmetric Debris Disk Around HD 32297

We present Keck/NIRC2 K(sub s) band high-contrast coronagraphic imaging of the luminous debris disk around the nearby, young A star HD 32297 resolved at a projected separation of r = 0.3 - 2.5" (approx equals 35 - 280 AU). The disk is highly warped to the north and exhibits a complex, "wavy" surface brightness profile interior to r approx equals 110 AU, where the peaks/plateaus in the profiles are shifted between the NE and SW disk lobes. The SW side of the disk is 50 - 100% brighter at r = 35 - 80 AU, and the location of its peak brightness roughly coincides with the disk's mm emission peak. Spectral energy distribution modeling suggests that HD 32297 has at least two dust populations that may originate from two separate belts likely at different locations, possibly at distances coinciding with the surface brightness peaks. A disk model fur a single dust belt including a phase function with two components and a 5 - 10 AU pericenter offset explains the disk's warped structure and reproduces some of the surface brightness profile's shape (e.g. the overall "wavy" profile, the SB peak/plateau shifts) but more poorly reproduces the disk's brightness asymmetry and the profile at wider separations (r > 110 AU). Although there may be a1ternate explanations, agreement between the SW disk brightness peak and disk's peak rom emission is consistent with an overdensity of very small, sub-blowout-sized dust and large, 0.1 - 1 mm-sized grains at approx equal 45 AU tracing the same parent population of planetesimals. New near-IR and submm observations may be able to clarify whether even more complex grain scattering properties or dynamical sculpting by an unseen planet are required to explain HD 32297's disk structure.

Currie, Thayne↗

Additively Manufactured Single-Use Molds and Reusable Patterns for Large Automotive and Hydroelectric Components

Additive manufacturing (AM) has the potential to reduce costs in the casting industry, particularly for large parts (i.e., components with any dimension > 12 in.). In this study, pilot-scale production case studies of hydroelectric and automotive parts were used to evaluate two AM-enabled casting methods: the direct printing of sand molds by binder jet and printing of reusable cope and drag patterns for sand casting. An additional benefit was found when additively manufactured patterns were used in combination with heat-treat free aluminum alloys, to produce castings of complex hydrodynamic surfaces. These parts previously required production via subtractive machining due to part distortion induced by the quench step of heat treatments. The machine types used for the three case studies are sand-binder jet, high-resolution polymer fused deposition modeling (FDM), and big area additive manufacturing (BAAM) FDM in combination with CNC machining. Each method demonstrated distinct advantages over traditional casting practices in particular use cases. Single-use molds show great reductions in start-up cost to produce one-off or legacy parts, and additively manufactured impression patterns show promise for innovating the tooling design process for complex geometry and large castings.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Phase Formation in Nuclear Fallout

An understanding of the physical and chemical process occurring in a nuclear explosion enables predictions of the effects of nuclear weapons, including characteristics of radioactive fallout resulting from the explosion. Near-surface nuclear explosions are of particular interest due to the potential for significant amounts of environmental material to interact with and alter the physical and chemical behavior of the fireball. Such interactions have the potential to affect the distribution of radioactive species in the fireball and subsequently become incorporated into fallout through a process known as radiochemical fractionation. Studying variations in fallout formed in different historical testing environments allows us to understand the influence of local environments on fallout formation processes. In particular, constraining variations in thermal evolution and redox conditions during the evolution of the fireball can be useful to understanding how sensitive fallout radiochemical fractionation may be to the local explosion environment. However, untangling these conditions in complex, multicomponent fallout is a challenge. Here we present one method of constraining and interpreting fallout formation conditions by relating computationally derived phase stability predictions to observations in historic fallout. Development of such approaches will help improve physics-based models of fallout formation and radiochemical fractionation in complex, near surface nuclear detonations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

North American Megadroughts in the Common Era: Reconstructions and Simulations

During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), Western North America experienced episodes of intense aridity that persisted for multiple decades or longer. These megadroughts are well documented in many proxy records, but the causal mechanisms are poorly understood. General circulation models (GCMs) simulate megadroughts, but do not reproduce the temporal clustering of events during the MCA, suggesting they are not caused by the time history of volcanic or solar forcing. Instead, GCMs generate megadroughts through (1) internal atmospheric variability, (2) sea-surface temperatures, and (3) land surface and dust aerosol feedbacks. While no hypothesis has been definitively rejected, and no GCM has accurately reproduced all features (e.g., timing, duration, and extent) of any specific megadrought, their persistence suggests a role for processes that impart memory to the climate system (land surface and ocean dynamics). Over the 21st century, GCMs project an increase in the risk of megadrought occurrence through greenhouse gas forced reductions in precipitation and increases in evaporative demand. This drying is robust across models and multiple drought indicators, but major uncertainties still need to be resolved. These include the potential moderation of vegetation evaporative losses at higher atmospheric [CO2], variations in land surface model complexity, and decadal to multidecadal modes of natural climate variability that could delay or advance onset of aridification over the the next several decades. Because future droughts will arise from both natural variability and greenhouse gas forced trends in hydroclimate, improving our understanding of the natural drivers of persistent multidecadal megadroughts should be a major research priority.

atmospheric temperature↗

Lagrangian particle method for compressible fluid dynamics

A new Lagrangian particle method for solving Euler equations for compressible inviscid fluid or gas flows is proposed. Similar to smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH), the method represents fluid cells with Lagrangian particles and is suitable for the simulation of complex free surface / multi-phase flows. The main contributions of our method, which is different from SPH in all other aspects, are (a) significant improvement of approximation of differential operators based on a polynomial fit via weighted least squares approximation and the convergence of prescribed order, (b) a second-order particle-based algorithm that reduces to the first-order upwind method at local extremal points, providing accuracy and long term stability, and (c) more accurate resolution of entropy discontinuities and states at free inter-faces. While the method is consistent and convergent to a prescribed order, the conservation of momentum and energy is not exact and depends on the convergence order . The method is generalizable to coupled hyperbolic-elliptic systems. As a result, numerical verification tests demonstrating the convergence order are presented as well as examples of complex multiphase flows.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Temperature-Sensitive Coating Sensor Based on Hematite

A temperature-sensitive coating, based on hematite (iron III oxide), has been developed to measure surface temperature using spectral techniques. The hematite powder is added to a binder that allows the mixture to be painted on the surface of a test specimen. The coating dynamically changes its relative spectral makeup or color with changes in temperature. The color changes from a reddish-brown appearance at room temperature (25 C) to a black-gray appearance at temperatures around 600 C. The color change is reversible and repeatable with temperature cycling from low to high and back to low temperatures. Detection of the spectral changes can be recorded by different sensors, including spectrometers, photodiodes, and cameras. Using a-priori information obtained through calibration experiments in known thermal environments, the color change can then be calibrated to yield accurate quantitative temperature information. Temperature information can be obtained at a point, or over an entire surface, depending on the type of equipment used for data acquisition. Because this innovation uses spectrophotometry principles of operation, rather than the current methods, which use photoluminescence principles, white light can be used for illumination rather than high-intensity short wavelength excitation. The generation of high-intensity white (or potentially filtered long wavelength light) is much easier, and is used more prevalently for photography and video technologies. In outdoor tests, the Sun can be used for short durations as an illumination source as long as the amplitude remains relatively constant. The reflected light is also much higher in intensity than the emitted light from the inefficient current methods. Having a much brighter surface allows a wider array of detection schemes and devices. Because color change is the principle of operation, the development of high-quality, lower-cost digital cameras can be used for detection, as opposed to the high-cost imagers needed for intensity measurements with the current methods. Alternative methods of detection are possible to increase the measurement sensitivity. For example, a monochrome camera can be used with an appropriate filter and a radiometric measurement of normalized intensity change that is proportional to the change coating temperature. Using different spectral regions yields different sensitivities and calibration curves for converting intensity change to temperature units. Alternatively, using a color camera, a ratio of the standard red, green, and blue outputs can be used as a self-referenced change. The blue region (less than 500 nm) does not change nearly as much as the red region (greater than 575 nm), so a ratio of color intensities will yield a calibrated temperature image. The new temperature sensor coating is easy to apply, is inexpensive, can contour complex shape surfaces, and can be a global surface measurement system based on spectrophotometry. The color change, or relative intensity change, at different colors makes the optical detection under white light illumination, and associated interpretation, much easier to measure and interpret than in the detection systems of the current methods.

Bencic, Timothy J.↗

Improved Estimates of Pentad Precipitation through the Merging of Independent Precipitation Datasets

Three independent, quasi-global, gridded datasets of precipitation (a rain gauge-based dataset, the satellite-only component of the NASA Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement mission [IMERG] Final Run precipitation product, and precipitation estimates derived from NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive [SMAP] soil moisture retrievals), are objectively combined into a single pentad precipitation dataset at 36-km resolution using a unique approach based on extended triple collocation. The quality of each of the four datasets is then evaluated against independent observations. When a global land surface model at 36-km resolution is integrated four times, once utilizing the merged precipitation forcing and once with each of the three contributing datasets, the near-surface soil moisture variations produced with the merged forcing validate best against independent satellite-based soil moisture fields. In addition, the merged dataset is found to be more consistent, relative to each contributor, with estimates of air temperature variations across the globe. The merged dataset thus appears to draw successfully on the complementary strengths of each contributor: the particularly high quality of the rain gauge-based dataset in areas of high gauge density, the more uniform accuracy across the globe of the IMERG data, and the moderate accuracy, particularly in semi-arid regions, of the soil moisture retrieval-based data. Plain Language Summary Obtaining measurements of precipitation across the globe can be challenging. Rain gauges in some ways provide the most accurate measurements, but gauges are absent in many parts of the world, and even where they exist, they only measure precipitation at the gauge itself and therefore may not provide an accurate large-scale average. Satellite-based estimates of precipitation largely overcome these problems, but such data have their own issues, notably a “snapshot” (rather than a time-average) character of the measurements and difficulty associated with interpreting the measured radiances in the presence of complex land surfaces. In the present paper, we use a novel approach to generate a “merged” dataset, one that optimally combines the gauge precipitation information and the satellite-based precipitation information with a third set of estimates derived from soil moisture retrievals. The merged precipitation dataset and each of the three contributors (aggregated here to 5-day averages at a spatial resolution of about 36-km) are then evaluated for consistency with independent geophysical fields. The merged dataset is found to perform best, a clear indication that it takes proper advantage of the complementary strengths of each contributor and, accordingly, that the presented approach for merging the different contributors is indeed viable.

Precipitation↗

Investigating Sources of Variability and Error in Simulations of Carbon Dioxide in an Urban Region

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimation methods that use atmospheric trace gas observations, including inverse modeling techniques, perform better when carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes are more accurately transported and dispersed in the atmosphere by a numerical model. In urban areas, transport and dispersion is particularly difficult to simulate using current mesoscale meteorological models due, in part, to added complexity from surface heterogeneity and fine spatial/temporal scales. It is generally assumed that the errors in GHG estimation methods in urban areas are dominated by errors in transport and dispersion. Other significant errors include, but are not limited to, those from assumed emissions magnitude and spatial distribution. To assess the predictability of simulated trace gas mole fractions in urban observing systems using a numerical weather prediction model, we employ an Eulerian model that combines traditional meteorological variables with multiple passive tracers of atmospheric CO2 from anthropogenic inventories and a biospheric model. The predictability of the Eulerian model is assessed by comparing simulated atmospheric CO2 mole fractions to observations from four in situ tower sites (three urban and one rural) in the Washington DC/Baltimore, MD area for February 2016. Four different gridded fossil fuel emissions inventories along with a biospheric flux model are used to create an ensemble of simulated atmospheric CO2 observations within the model. These ensembles help to evaluate whether the modeled observations are impacted more by the underlying emissions or transport. The spread of modeled observations using the four emission fields indicates the model's ability to distinguish between the different inventories under various meteorological conditions. Overall, the Eulerian model performs well; simulated and observed average CO2 mole fractions agree within 1% when averaged at the three urban sites across the month. However, there can be differences greater than 10% at any given hour, which are attributed to complex meteorological conditions rather than differences in the inventories themselves. On average, the mean absolute error of the simulated compared to actual observations is generally twice as large as the standard deviation of the modeled mole fractions across the four emission inventories. This result supports the assumption, in urban domains, that the predicted mole fraction error relative to observations is dominated by errors in model meteorology rather than errors in the underlying fluxes in winter months. As such, minimizing errors associated with atmospheric transport and dispersion may help improve the performance of GHG estimation models more so than improving flux priors in the winter months. We also find that the errors associated with atmospheric transport in urban domains are not restricted to certain times of day. This suggests that atmospheric inversions should use CO2 observations that have been filtered using meteorological observations rather than assuming that meteorological modeling is most accurate at certain times of day (such as using only mid-afternoon observations).

CO2↗