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At least 523 records · Page 29

Recrystallized Impact Glasses of the Onaping Formation and the Sudbury Igneous Complex, Sudbury Structure, Ontario, Canada

The origin of the Sudbury Structure and of the associated heterolithic breccias of the Onaping Formation and the Sudbury Igneous Complex have been controversial. While an impact origin of the structure has gained wide acceptance over the last 15 years, the origin of the recrystallized Onaping Formation glasses and of the igneous complex is still being debated. Recently the interpretation of the breccias of the Onaping Formation as suevitic fall-back impact breccias has been challenged. The igneous complex is interpreted either as a differentiated impact melt sheet or as a combination of an upper impact melt represented by the granophyre, and a lower, impact-triggered magmatic body consisting of the norite-sublayer formations. The Onaping Formation contains glasses as fluidal and nonfluidal fragments of various shapes and sizes. They are recrystallized, and our research indicates that they are petrographically heterogeneous and span a wide range of chemical compositions. These characteristics are not known from glasses of volcanic deposits. This suggests an origin by shock vitrification, an interpretation consistent with their association with numerous and varied country rock clasts that exhibit microscopic shock metamorphic features. The recrystallized glass fragments represent individual solid-state and liquid-state vitrified rocks or relatively small melt pods. The basal member lies beneath the Gray and Black members of the Onaping Formation and, where not metamorphic, has an igneous matrix. Igneous-textured melt bodies occur in the upper two members and above the Basal Member. A comparison of the chemical compositions of recrystallized glasses and of the matrices of the Basal Member and the melt bodies with the components and the bulk composition of the igneous complex is inconclusive as to the origin of the igneous complex. Basal Member matrix and Melt Bodies, on average, are chemically similar to the granophyre of the Sudbury Igneous Complex, suggesting that they are genetically related. Our chemical results allow interpretation of the entire igneous complex as a differentiated impact melt. However, they are also consistent with the granophyre alone being the impact melt and the nofite and quartz gabbro beneath it representing an impact-triggered magmatic body. This interpretation is preferred, as it is consistent with a number of field observations. A re-evaluation and extension of structural field studies and of geochemical data, as well as a systematic study of the contact relationships of the various igneous phases of the igneous complex, are needed to establish a Sudbury impact model consistent with all data and observations

Dressler, B. O.↗

Development and evaluation of a new 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled ocean data assimilation system in E3SMv2

The development, implementation, and evaluation of a new weakly coupled ocean data assimilation (WCODA) system for the fully coupled Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) utilizing the four-dimensional ensemble variational (4DEnVar) method are presented in this study. The 4DEnVar method, based on the dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational (DRP-4DVar) approach, replaces the adjoint model with the ensemble technique, thereby reducing computational demands. Monthly mean ocean temperature and salinity data from the EN4.2.1 reanalysis are integrated into the ocean component of E3SMv2 from 1950 to 2021 with the goal of providing realistic initial conditions for decadal predictions and predictability studies. The performance of the WCODA system is assessed using various metrics, including the reduction rate of the cost function, root mean square error (RMSE) differences, correlation differences, and model biases. Results indicate that the WCODA system effectively assimilates the reanalysis data into the climate model, consistently achieving negative reduction rates of the cost function and notable improvements in RMSE and correlation across various ocean layers and regions. Significant enhancements are observed in the upper ocean layers across the majority of global ocean regions, particularly in the north Atlantic, north Pacific, and Indian Ocean. Model biases in sea surface temperature and salinity are also substantially reduced. For sea surface temperature, cold biases in the north Pacific and north Atlantic are diminished by about 1–2 °C, and warm biases in the Southern Ocean are corrected by approximately 1.5–2.5 °C. In terms of salinity, improvements are observed with bias reductions of about 0.5–1 psu in the north Atlantic and north Pacific and up to 1.5 psu in parts of the Southern Ocean. The ultimate goal of the WCODA system is to advance the predictive capabilities of E3SM for subseasonal to decadal climate predictions, thereby supporting research on strategic energy-sector policies and planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Globular cluster winds with central accretion by a massive compact object or subcluster

Steady-state isothermal wind flows are computed with accretion by a central mass concentration in spherically symmetric systems of gas-losing stars. Solutions are uniquely determined by two dimensionless parameters lambda and m, where lambda is approximately equal to the square of the ratio of the central escape velocity to the sound speed and m is approximately equal to the ratio of the central point mass to the cluster core mass. The models are applied to globular clusters for two types of central mass concentration - a single massive black hole and a subcluster of massive stars. A hard (greater than a keV) X-ray source due to a central black hole fed by clusterwide inflow does not provide a consistent model for globular cluster X-ray sources. However, in the case of hot (T being greater than or approximately equal to 2 x 10 to the 5th K) winds, gas trapping by a central subcluster of neutron stars or of binaries containing white dwarfs could explain recent UV and H-alpha observations. Similar applications to elliptical galaxies are discussed.

Durisen, R. H.↗

Angular radiation models for Earth-atmosphere system. Volume 1: Shortwave radiation

Presented are shortwave angular radiation models which are required for analysis of satellite measurements of Earth radiation, such as those fro the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). The models consist of both bidirectional and directional parameters. The bidirectional parameters are anisotropic function, standard deviation of mean radiance, and shortwave-longwave radiance correlation coefficient. The directional parameters are mean albedo as a function of Sun zenith angle and mean albedo normalized to overhead Sun. Derivation of these models from the Nimbus 7 ERB (Earth Radiation Budget) and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data sets is described. Tabulated values and computer-generated plots are included for the bidirectional and directional modes.

Suttles, J. T.↗

Dip Spectroscopy of the Low Mass X-Ray Binary XB 1254-690

We observed the low mass X-ray binary XB 1254-690 with the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer in 2001 May and December. During the first observation strong dipping on the 3.9-hr orbital period and a high degree of variability were observed, along with "shoulders" approx. 15% deep during extended intervals on each side of the main dips. The first observation also included pronounced flaring activity. The non-dip spectrum obtained using the PCA instrument was well-described by a two-component model consisting of a blackbody with kT = 1.30 +/- 0.10 keV plus a cut-off power law representation of Comptonized emission with power law photon index 1.10 +/- 0.46 and a cut-off energy of 5.9(sup +3.0, sub -1.4) keV. The intensity decrease in the shoulders of dipping is energy-independent, consistent with electron scattering in the outer ionized regions of the absorber. In deep dipping the depth of dipping reached 100%, in the energy band below 5 keV, indicating that all emitting regions were covered by absorber. Intensity-selected dip spectra were well-fit by a model in which the point-like blackbody is rapidly covered, while the extended Comptonized emission is progressively overlapped by the absorber, with the, covering fraction rising to 95% in the deepest portion of the dip. The intensity of this component in the dip spectra could be modeled by a combination of electron scattering and photoelectric absorption. Dipping did not occur during the 2001 December observation, but remarkably, both bursting and flaring were observed contemporaneously.

Smale, Alan P.↗

Aging Wire Insulation Assessment by Phase Spectrum Examination of Ultrasonic Guided Waves

Wire integrity has become an area of concern to the aerospace community including DoD, NASA, FAA, and Industry. Over time and changing environmental conditions, wire insulation can become brittle and crack. The cracks expose the wire conductor and can be a source of equipment failure, short circuits, smoke, and fire. The technique of using the ultrasonic phase spectrum to extract material properties of the insulation is being examined. Ultrasonic guided waves will propagate in both the wire conductor and insulation. Assuming the condition of the conductor remains constant then the stiffness of the insulator can be determined by measuring the ultrasonic guided wave velocity. In the phase spectrum method the guided wave velocity is obtained by transforming the time base waveform to the frequency domain and taking the phase difference between two waveforms. The result can then be correlated with a database, derived by numerical model calculations, to extract material properties of the wire insulator. Initial laboratory tests were performed on a simple model consisting of a solid cylinder and then a solid cylinder with a polymer coating. For each sample the flexural mode waveform was identified. That waveform was then transformed to the frequency domain and a phase spectrum was calculated from a pair of waveforms. Experimental results on the simple model compared well to numerical calculations. Further tests were conducted on aircraft or mil-spec wire samples, to see if changes in wire insulation stiffness can be extracted using the phase spectrum technique.

Anastasi, Robert F.↗

A Unified Computational Model for Solar and Stellar Flares

We present a unified computational framework that can be used to describe impulsive flares on the Sun and on dMe stars. The models assume that the flare impulsive phase is caused by a beam of charged particles that is accelerated in the corona and propagates downward depositing energy and momentum along the way. This rapidly heats the lower stellar atmosphere causing it to explosively expand and dramatically brighten. Our models consist of flux tubes that extend from the sub-photosphere into the corona. We simulate how flare-accelerated charged particles propagate down one-dimensional flux tubes and heat the stellar atmosphere using the Fokker-Planck kinetic theory. Detailed radiative transfer is included so that model predictions can be directly compared with observations. The flux of flare-accelerated particles drives return currents which additionally heat the stellar atmosphere. These effects are also included in our models. We examine the impact of the flare-accelerated particle beams on model solar and dMe stellar atmospheres and perform parameter studies varying the injected particle energy spectra. We find the atmospheric response is strongly dependent on the accelerated particle cutoff energy and spectral index.

radiative transfer↗

Seawater Debye Model Function at L-Band and Its Impact on Salinity Retrieval From Aquarius Satellite Data

A model function of seawater, which specifies the dielectric constant of seawater as a function of salinity, temperature, and frequency, is important for the retrieval of sea surface salinity using satellite data. In 2017, a model function has been developed based on measurement data at 1.4134 GHz using a third-order polynomial expression in salinity ( S ) and temperature ( T ). Although the model showed improvements in salinity retrieval, it had an inconsistent behavior between partitioned salinities. To improve the stability of the model, new dielectric measurements of seawater have been made recently over a broad range of salinities and temperatures to expand the data set used for developing the model function. The structure of the model function has been changed from a polynomial expansion in S and T to a physics-based model consisting of a Debye molecular resonance term plus a conductivity term. Each unknown parameter is expressed in S and T based on the expanded measurement data set. Physical arguments have been used to limit the number of unknown coefficients in these expressions to improve the stability of the model function. The new model function has been employed in the retrieval algorithm of the Aquarius satellite mission to obtain a global salinity map. The retrieved salinity using a different model function is compared with in situ data collected by Argo floats to evaluate the impact and the performance of model functions. The results indicate that the new model function has significant improvements in salinity retrieval compared with other existing models.

Seawater↗

Discrete stochastic model of point defect-dislocation interaction for simulating dislocation climb

Dislocation climb is an important high temperature process in metals plasticity, responsible for the phenomena such as creep, swelling, or hardening. Climb is defined by the ability of dislocations to leave their original glide plane by interacting with point defects. As such, dislocation climb is controlled by point defect diffusion/absorption/emission, all of which involve thermal activation. The existing thermodynamically consistent models for climb are generally formulated in a continuum framework, through the definition of effective defect fluxes and climb propensities in response to thermodynamic driving forces. However, the point-wise discrete nature of vacancies (and/or self-interstitials) confers a highly discrete nature to the climb dynamics, which is also strongly affected by elastic forces. The combination of discreteness, thermal activation, and elasticity makes this process too challenging for direct atomistic methods such as molecular dynamics. Here we develop a kinetic Monte Carlo model that captures vacancy generation and transport kinetics acting in conjuction with the evolving elastic fields provided by discrete dislocation dynamics simulations. The two models are coupled via the applied stresses and stress gradients generated by dislocation structures at vacancy locations. Our simulations reveal two surprising results. First that climb is dominated by vacancy emission even when the background vacancy concentration is much higher than the equilibrium one. And, second, that climb velocities might be much faster than otherwise believed when one uses the classical theories of climb. These effects are due to the locality of vacancy-dislocation processes, which are not captured in classical treatments that assume smooth vacancy fluxes and homogeneous concentrations. We apply the method to study elementary climb processes in body-centered cubic iron and furnish climb mobility functions to be used in parametric dislocation dynamics and/or crystal plasticity simulations. Here, we apply the technique to study non-conservative plastic bypass of spherical precipitates by edge dislocations and point out the differences between our discrete approach and existing continuum formulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Detection of significant antiviral drug effects on COVID-19 with reasonable sample sizes in randomized controlled trials: A modeling study

Development of an effective antiviral drug for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global health priority. Although several candidate drugs have been identified through in vitro and in vivo models, consistent and compelling evidence from clinical studies is limited. The lack of evidence from clinical trials may stem in part from the imperfect design of the trials. We investigated how clinical trials for antivirals need to be designed, especially focusing on the sample size in randomized controlled trials. A modeling study was conducted to help understand the reasons behind inconsistent clinical trial findings and to design better clinical trials. We first analyzed longitudinal viral load data for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) without antiviral treatment by use of a within-host virus dynamics model. The fitted viral load was categorized into 3 different groups by a clustering approach. Comparison of the estimated parameters showed that the 3 distinct groups were characterized by different virus decay rates (p-value < 0.001). The mean decay rates were 1.17 d -1 (95% CI: 1.06 to 1.27 d -1 ), 0.777 d -1 (0.716 to 0.838 d -1 ), and 0.450 d -1 (0.378 to 0.522 d -1 ) for the 3 groups, respectively. Such heterogeneity in virus dynamics could be a confounding variable if it is associated with treatment allocation in compassionate use programs (i.e., observational studies). Subsequently, we mimicked randomized controlled trials of antivirals by simulation. An antiviral effect causing a 95% to 99% reduction in viral replication was added to the model. To be realistic, we assumed that randomization and treatment are initiated with some time lag after symptom onset. Using the duration of virus shedding as an outcome, the sample size to detect a statistically significant mean difference between the treatment and placebo groups (1:1 allocation) was 13,603 and 11,670 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) per group if all patients are enrolled regardless of timing of randomization. The sample size was reduced to 584 and 458 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) if only patients who are treated within 1 day of symptom onset are enrolled. We confirmed the sample size was similarly reduced when using cumulative viral load in log scale as an outcome. We used a conventional virus dynamics model, which may not fully reflect the detailed mechanisms of viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. The model needs to be calibrated in terms of both parameter settings and model structure, which would yield more reliable sample size calculation. In this study, we found that estimated association in observational studies can be biased due to large heterogeneity in viral dynamics among infected individuals, and statistically significant effect in randomized controlled trials may be difficult to be detected due to small sample size. The sample size can be dramatically reduced by recruiting patients immediately after developing symptoms. We believe this is the first study investigated the study design of clinical trials for antiviral treatment using the viral dynamics model.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

First principles numerical model of avalanche-induced arc discharges in electron-irradiated dielectrics

The model consists of four phases: single electron dynamics, single electron avalanche, negative streamer development, and tree formation. Numerical algorithms and computer code implementations are presented for the first three phases. An approach to developing a code description of fourth phase is discussed. Numerical results are presented for a crude material model of Teflon.

Beers, B. L.↗

Analytical study of twin-jet shielding

Progress in the refinement and evaluation of an analytical jet shielding model are summarized. The model consists of a point noise source impinging on a cylinder of heated flow in which the temperature and velocity are uniform across the cross section of the jet. The shielding jet is infinite in extent along the jet axis and the radius of the jet is constant. The analytical model was compared to experimental data for a point noise source impinging on an ambient temperature, subsonic jet and on a subsonic simulated hot jet using helium as the flow medium. Results of these comparisons are discussed.

Gerhold, C. H.↗

A predictive modeling tool for damage analysis and design of hydrogen storage composite pressure vessels

In this study, a predictive modeling tool is developed for damage analysis and design of hydrogen (H 2 ) storage composite pressure vessels. It integrates micromechanics of matrix cracking into a continuum damage mechanics (CDM) description for damage evolution, and three-dimensional (3D) finite element (FE) modeling of the vessel structural response. At the scale of the composite layer (mesoscale), the temperature-dependent stiffness reduction law in terms of the damage variable for transverse matrix cracking is computed using an Eshelby-Mori-Tanaka approach for the initial composite thermoelastic properties and a self-consistent model for the stiffness reduction as a function of the damage variable. While transverse matrix cracking obeying a damage evolution relation can progressively evolve from an initiation to a saturation state, fiber failure is predicted by a micromechanical fiber rupture criterion that accounts for the fiber strength and matrix stress. The implementation of this integrated multiscale modeling model into a 3D FE formulation enables damage analysis and design of H 2 storage composite pressure vessels. The developed tool is illustrated through 3D damage analyses of a cryogenically compressed H 2 storage vessel model subjected to thermomechanical loadings to investigate effects of the helical layer fiber orientation and loading scenario on damage development, vessel integrity and burst pressure.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Approximating a finite element model of a hybrid deployable truss by a discrete mass model

The NASTRAN finite element model of the MSFC/hybrid deployable truss is approximated by a model consisting of four bodies serially connected by a spring hinge suspension. The truss is decomposed into four serially connected modules determining the total mass and rotational inertias for a rigid body with its mass center on the axis of the truss for each module. A five-body cantilever truss model is developed along with an undamped form of this model. Spring coefficient values are generated to match eigenvalues of the latter model with those of the NASTRAN model. Damping coefficients are then determined that provide n percent of critical damping for the model.

Chichester, F. D.↗

Lagrangian photochemical modeling studies of the 1987 Antarctic spring vortex. II - Seasonal trends in ozone

A photochemical model consisting of 40 species and 107 reactions is integrated along 80-day air parcel trajectories calculated in the lower stratosphere for the springtime Antarctic. For the trajectory starting at 58 deg S, which may be regarded as outside the circumpolar vortex, only a small change in O3 occurs in the model. In contrast, for the air parcel starting in the vortex at 74 deg S, the O3 concentration is reduced by 93 percent during the 80 days from the beginning of August to late October. The model results for several species are compared with measurements from the Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment and, in general, good agreement is obtained. In the model, the dentrification of the air parcels in polar stratospheric clouds increases the amount of chlorine present in active form. Heterogeneous reactions maintain high active chlorine which destroys O3 via the formation of the ClO dimer. Results of calculations with reduced concentrations of inorganic chlorine show considerably reduced O3 destruction rates and compare favorably with the behavior of total O3 since the late 1970s. The remaining major uncertainties in the photochemical aspects of the Antarctic ozone hole are highlighted.

Austin, J.↗

Infrared and X-Ray Evidence for Circumstellar Grain Destruction by the Blast Wave of Supernova 1987A

Multiwavelength observations of supernova remnant (SNR) 1987A show that its morphology and luminosity are rapidly changing at X-ray, optical, infrared, and radio wavelengths as the blast wave from the explosion expands into the circumstellar equatorial ring, produced by mass loss from the progenitor star. The observed infrared (IR) radiation arises from the interaction of dust grains that formed in mass outflow with the soft X-ray emitting plasma component of the shocked gas. Spitzer IRS spectra at 5 - 30 microns taken on day 6190 since the explosion show that the emission arises from approx. 1.1 x 10(exp -6) solar mass of silicate grains radiating at a temperature of approx. 180+/-(15-20) K. Subsequent observations on day 7137 show that the IR flux had increased by a factor of 2 while maintaining an almost identical spectral shape. The observed IR-to-X-ray flux ratio (IRX) is consistent with that of a dusty plasma with standard LMC dust abundances. This flux ratio has decreased by a factor of approx. 2 between days 6190 and 7137, providing the first direct observation of the ongoing destruction of dust in an expanding SN blast wave on dynamic time scales. Detailed models consistent with the observed dust temperature, the ionization fluence of the soft X-ray emission component, and the evolution of IRX suggest that the radiating si1icate grains are immersed in a 3.5 x 10(exp 6) K plasma with a density of (0.3 - 1) x 10(exp 4)/cu cm, and have a size distribution that is confined to a narrow range of radii between 0.02 and 0.2 microns. Smaller grains may have been evaporated by the initial UV flash from the supernova.

Dwek, Eliahu↗

Vulnerability and resilience of urban energy ecosystems to extreme climate events: A systematic review and perspectives

We reviewed the present studies on the vulnerability and resilience of the energy ecosystem (most parts of the energy ecosystem), considering extreme climate events. This study revealed that the increased interactions formed during the transformation of the energy landscape into an ecosystem could notably increase the vulnerability of the energy infrastructure. Such complex ecosystem cannot be assessed using the present state of the art models used by the energy system modelers. Therefore, this study introduces a novel analogy known as the COVID analogy to understand the propagation of disruption within and beyond the energy ecosystem and organized the present state of the art based on the COVID analogy. The analogy helps to categorize the vulnerability of the energy infrastructure into three stages. The study revealed that although there are many publications covering the vulnerability and resilience of the energy infrastructure, considering extreme climate events, the majority are focused on the direct impact of extreme climate on the energy ecosystem. In addition, most of the studies do not consider the impact of future climate variations during this assessment. The propagation of disruptions was assessed mainly for wildfires and hurricanes. Further, there is a clear research gap in considering vulnerability assessment for interconnected energy infrastructure. Here, the transformation of energy systems into a complex ecosystem notably increases the complexity, making it difficult to assess vulnerability and resilience. A shift from a centralized to decentralized modeling architecture could be beneficial when considering the complexities brought by that transformation. Hybrid models consisting of both physical and data-driven machine learning techniques could also be beneficial in this context.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A multi-model assessment of global freshwater temperature and thermoelectric power supply under climate change

Water temperature is a key abiotic factor influencing aquatic ecosystem health and the services provided to both nature and humans. Global water temperature models offer possibilities to improve our understanding of water temperature regimes, which is increasingly important against the backdrop of climate change. Yet, existing studies have predominantly relied on a single model, which can lead to an incomplete representation of uncertainty and potential biases, in addition to limited insight into the range of possible future conditions, which ultimately reduces the robustness of climate impact assessments. Here, we provide a comprehensive assessment of surface freshwater temperature changes from various river and lake models for both past conditions and under future scenarios of climate change. Global models consistently simulate that surface water temperatures are currently 0.5 °C–0.8 °C higher than at the turn of the century (i.e. 1981–2000), and that warming will extend and intensify with future global change throughout the 21st century. While the strength of warming is highly sensitive to the different water temperature models, emissions scenarios and global climate models, our multi-model ensemble shows a global average annual water temperature rise of between +1.3 °C and +4.1 °C by the end of the century. To illustrate a potential societal impact of our results, we evaluate how future changes in discharge and water temperature may affect existing thermoelectric power plants, estimating average annual reductions of 1.5%–6% in global usable capacity by the end of the century. However, with river water temperatures projected to exhibit more pronounced seasonal patterns in the future—especially under the more extreme climate change scenarios and during summer months in the Northern Hemisphere—intra-annual reductions in usable capacity can be much more severe. Given the challenges associated with (large-scale) adaptation to control water temperature regimes, strong climate change mitigation is crucial for minimising water temperature rises and its associated negative impacts on humankind and ecosystems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗