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A GPS-Based Pitot-Static Calibration Method Using Global Output-Error Optimization

Pressure-based airspeed and altitude measurements for aircraft typically require calibration of the installed system to account for pressure sensing errors such as those due to local flow field effects. In some cases, calibration is used to meet requirements such as those specified in Federal Aviation Regulation Part 25. Several methods are used for in-flight pitot-static calibration including tower fly-by, pacer aircraft, and trailing cone methods. In the 1990 s, the introduction of satellite-based positioning systems to the civilian market enabled new inflight calibration methods based on accurate ground speed measurements provided by Global Positioning Systems (GPS). Use of GPS for airspeed calibration has many advantages such as accuracy, ease of portability (e.g. hand-held) and the flexibility of operating in airspace without the limitations of test range boundaries or ground telemetry support. The current research was motivated by the need for a rapid and statistically accurate method for in-flight calibration of pitot-static systems for remotely piloted, dynamically-scaled research aircraft. Current calibration methods were deemed not practical for this application because of confined test range size and limited flight time available for each sortie. A method was developed that uses high data rate measurements of static and total pressure, and GPSbased ground speed measurements to compute the pressure errors over a range of airspeed. The novel application of this approach is the use of system identification methods that rapidly compute optimal pressure error models with defined confidence intervals in nearreal time. This method has been demonstrated in flight tests and has shown 2- bounds of approximately 0.2 kts with an order of magnitude reduction in test time over other methods. As part of this experiment, a unique database of wind measurements was acquired concurrently with the flight experiments, for the purpose of experimental validation of the optimization method. This paper describes the GPS-based pitot-static calibration method developed for the AirSTAR research test-bed operated as part of the Integrated Resilient Aircraft Controls (IRAC) project in the NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). A description of the method will be provided and results from recent flight tests will be shown to illustrate the performance and advantages of this approach. Discussion of maneuver requirements and data reduction will be included as well as potential applications.

Foster, John V.↗

Semi-supervised permutation invariant particle-level anomaly detection

The development of analysis methods to distinguish potential beyond the Standard Model phenomena in a model-agnostic way can significantly enhance the discovery reach in collider experiments. However, the typical machine learning (ML) algorithms employed for this task require fixed length and ordered inputs that break the natural permutation invariance in collision events. To address this, a semi-supervised anomaly detection tool is presented that takes a variable number of particle-level inputs and leverages a signal model to encode this information into a permutation invariant, event-level representation via supervised training with a Particle Flow Network (PFN). Data events are then encoded into this representation and given as input to an autoencoder for unsupervised ANomaly deTEction on particLe flOw latent sPacE (ANTELOPE), classifying anomalous events based on a low-level and permutation invariant input modeling. Performance of the ANTELOPE architecture is evaluated on simulated samples of hadronic processes in a high energy collider experiment, showing good capability to distinguish disparate models of new physics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Automated Identification and Differentiation of Spectrally Similar Hydrothermal Minerals on Mars

Early telescopic observations corroborated hydration related absorptions on Mars in the infrared. Images from the Viking missions led to speculation of hydrothermal alteration and were followed by two missions which mapped the spatial variability of the ~ 3 μm hydration feature. Since then, the Compact Reconnaissance Imager for Mars (CRISM) has provided high spatial resolution (up to 18m) spectral identification of a suite of hydrothermal and diagenetic minerals which have illuminated a range of formation mechanisms. Presence/absence and spatial segregation or mixing of minerals like prehnite, epidote, chlorite amphiboles, and mixed-layer Fe/Mg smectite-chlorite provide valuable evidence for the geologic setting of deposits on Earth, and these phases are often used as temperature and aqueous chemistry indicators in terrestrial systems. Mapping the distribution of these phases will help to answer whether Mars had widespread conditions favorable for low-grade metamorphism and diagenesis, or only focused hydrothermal systems in areas of high heat flow. Further characterizing the chemistry and structure of these phases will then help to answer how most of the widespread Fe/Mg phyllosilicates formed, further defining early geochemical cycling and climate. A fully automated approach for accurate mapping of important hydrothermal mineral phases on Mars has been a challenge. Due to overlapping features in the M-OH region (~2.2-2.4 μm), the strongest absorption features of chlorite, prehnite, and epidote in the short-wave infrared are difficult to distinguish from one another and from the most commonly occurring hydrated silicates on Mars, Fe/Mg smectites. Weaker absorptions are present in both prehnite and epidote which help to distinguish them from chlorite and smectites, but their relative strength in the presence of noise and spatial mixing is often too low to confidently identify them without the noise suppression and feature enhancement methods described here. The spectral signatures of mixed-layer Fe/Mg smectite-chlorite and partially chloritized Fe/Mg smectites have not yet been adequately assessed. Here we evaluate the effectiveness of two empirical and statistical methods for identifying and differentiating these phases using CRISM data.

Rasmussen, B. P.↗

Magnetospheric Substorms and Tail Dynamics

This grant funded several studies of magnetospheric substorms and their effect on the dynamics of the earth's geomagnetic tail. We completed an extensive study of plasmoids, plasma/magnetic field structures that travel rapidly down the tail, using data from the ISEE 3 and IMP 8 spacecraft. This study formed the PhD thesis of Mark Moldwin. We found that magnetically plasmoids are better described as flux-ropes (twisted magnetic flux tubes) rather than plasma bubbles, as had been generally regarded up to that point (Moldwin and Hughes, 1990; 1991). We published several examples of plasmoids observed first in the near tail by IMP 8 and later in the distant tail by ISEE 3, confirming their velocities down tail. We showed how the passage of plasmoids distorts the plasma sheet. We completed the first extensive statistical survey of plasmoids that showed how plasmoids evolve as they move down tail from their formation around 30 RE to ISEE 3 apogee at 240 RE. We established a one-to-one correspondence between the observation of plasmoids in the distant tail and substorm onsets at earth or in the near tail. And we showed that there is a class of plasmoid-like structures that move slowly earthward, especially following weak substorms during northward IMF. Collectively this work constituted the most extensive study of plasmoids prior to the work that has now been done with the GEOTAIL spacecraft. Following our work on plasmoids, we turned our attention to signatures of substorm onset observed in the inner magnetosphere near geosynchronous orbit, especially signatures observed by the CRRES satellite. Using data from the magnetometer, electric field probe, plasma wave instrument, and low energy plasma instrument on CRRES we were able to better document substorm onsets in the inner magnetosphere than had been possible previously. Detailed calculation of the Poynting flux showed energy exchange between the magnetosphere and ionosphere, and a short burst of tailward convective flow just prior to onset, suggesting the active role of the ionosphere in the onset process, and adding credibility to the ballooning instability theory of substorm onset. This grant also supported a number of other substorm studies and reviews. These are represented by the list of publications and meeting presentations resulting out of this grant.

Hughes, W. Jeffrey↗

Analysis of ETMS Data Quality for Traffic Flow Management Decisions

The data needed for air traffic flow management decision support tools is provided by the Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS). This includes both the tools that are in current use and the ones being developed for future deployment. Since the quality of decision support provided by all these tools will be influenced by the quality of the input ETMS data, an assessment of ETMS data quality is needed. Motivated by this desire, ETMS data quality is examined in this paper in terms of the unavailability of flight plans, deviation from the filed flight plans, departure delays, altitude errors and track data drops. Although many of these data quality issues are not new, little is known about their extent. A goal of this paper is to document the magnitude of data quality issues supported by numerical analysis of ETMS data. Guided by this goal, ETMS data for a 24-hour period were processed to determine the number of aircraft with missing flight plan messages at any given instant of time. Results are presented for aircraft above 18,000 feet altitude and also at all altitudes. Since deviation from filed flight plan is also a major cause of trajectory-modeling errors, statistics of deviations are presented. Errors in proposed departure times and ETMS-generated vertical profiles are also shown. A method for conditioning the vertical profiles for improving demand prediction accuracy is described. Graphs of actual sector counts obtained using these vertical profiles are compared with those obtained using the Host data for sectors in the Fort Worth Center to demonstrate the benefit of preprocessing. Finally, results are presented to quantify the extent of data drops. A method for propagating track positions during ETMS data drops is also described.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗

Evaluation of the 7-km GEOS-5 Nature Run

This report documents an evaluation by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) of a two-year 7-km-resolution non-hydrostatic global mesoscale simulation produced with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model. The simulation was produced as a Nature Run for conducting observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Generation of the GEOS-5 Nature Run (G5NR) was motivated in part by the desire of the OSSE community for an improved high-resolution sequel to an existing Nature Run produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which has served the community for several years. The intended use of the G5NR in this context is for generating simulated observations to test proposed observing system designs regarding new instruments and their deployments. Because NASA's interest in OSSEs extends beyond traditional weather forecasting applications, the G5NR includes, in addition to standard meteorological components, a suite of aerosol types and several trace gas concentrations, with emissions downscaled to 10 km using ancillary information such as power plant location, population density and night-light information. The evaluation exercise described here involved more than twenty-five GMAO scientists investigating various aspects of the G5NR performance, including time mean temperature and wind fields, energy spectra, precipitation and the hydrological cycle, the representation of waves, tropical cyclones and midlatitude storms, land and ocean surface characteristics, the representation and forcing effects of clouds and radiation, dynamics of the stratosphere and mesosphere, and the representation of aerosols and trace gases. Comparisons are made with observational data sets when possible, as well as with reanalyses and other long model simulations. The evaluation is broad in scope, as it is meant to assess the overall realism of basic aspects of the G5NR deemed relevant to the conduct of OSSEs. However, because of the relatively short record and other practical considerations, these comparisons cannot provide a definitive, statistically sound assessment of all model deficiencies, or guarantee the G5NR's suitability for all OSSE applications. Differences between the observed and simulated behavior also must be judged in the context of basic internal atmospheric variability which can introduce variations that are not necessarily controlled by the prescribed sea surface temperatures used in generating the G5NR. The results show that the G5NR performs well as measured by the majority of metrics applied in this evaluation. Particular benefits derived from the 7-km resolution of G5NR include realistic representations of extreme weather events in both the tropics and extratropics including tropical cyclones, Nor'easters and mesoscale convective complexes; improved representation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation over land; well-resolved surface-atmosphere interactions such as katabatic wind flows over Antarctica and Greenland; and resolution of orographically generated gravity waves that propagate into the upper atmosphere and influence the large scale circulation. Obvious deficiencies in the G5NR include a "splitting" of the inter-tropical convergence zone, which leads to a weaker-than-observed Hadley circulation and related deficiencies in the depiction of stationary wave patterns. Also, while the G5NR captures global cloud features and radiative effects well in general, close comparison with observations reveals higher-than-observed cloud brightness, likely due to an overabundance of cloud condensate; less distinct cloud minima in subtropical subsidence zones, consistent with a weak Hadley circualtion; and too few near-coastal marine stratocumulus clouds.

GEOS-5↗

Effect of whole-body and local heating on cutaneous vasoconstrictor responses in humans

Animal studies suggest that alpha-adrenergic-mediated vasoconstriction is compromised during whole-body heating. The purpose of this study was to identify whether whole-body heating and/or local surface heating reduce cutaneous alpha-adrenergic vasoconstrictor responsiveness in human skin. Protocol I: Six subjects were exposed to neutral skin temperature (i.e., 34 degrees C), whole-body heating, and local heating of forearm skin to increase skin blood flow to the same relative magnitude as that observed during whole-body heating. Protocol II: In eight subjects forearm skin was locally heated to 34, 37, 40, and 42 degrees C. During both protocols, alpha-adrenergic vasoconstrictor responsiveness was assessed by local delivery of norepinephrine (NE) via intradermal microdialysis. Skin blood flow was continuously monitored over each microdialysis membrane via laser-Doppler flowmetry. In protocol I, whole-body and local heating caused similar increases in cutaneous vascular conductance (CVC). The EC50 (log NE dose) of the dose-response curves for both whole body (-4.2 +/- 0.1 M) and local heating (-4.7 +/- 0.4 M) were significantly greater (i.e., high dose required to cause 50% reduction in CVC) relative to neutral skin temperature (- 5.6 +/- 0.0 M; P<0.05 for both). In both local and whole-body heated conditions CVC did not return to pre-heating values even at the highest dose of NE. In protocol II, calculated EC50 for 34, 37, 40, and 42 degrees C local heating was - 5.5 +/- 0.4, -4.6 +/- 0.3, -4.5 +/- 0.3, - 4.2 +/- 0.4 M, respectively. Statistical analyses revealed that the EC50 for 37,40 and 42 degrees C were significantly greater than the EC50 for 34 degrees C. These results indicate that even during administration of high concentrations of NE, alpha-adrenergic vasoconstriction does not fully compensate for local heating and whole-body heating induced vasodilatation in young, healthy subjects. Moreover, these data suggest that elevated local temperatures, above 37 degrees C, and whole-body heating similarly attenuate cutaneous alpha-adrenergic vasoconstriction responsiveness.

Non-NASA Center↗

Full Field Scalar Measurements in a Pulsating Helium Jet using Rainbow Schlieren Deflectometry

The flow structure of a pulsating helium jet was investigated using quantitative rainbow schlieren deflectometry. The operating parameters included the tube inside diameter, the jet Reynolds number and the jet Richardson number. The jet structure was characterized by the frequency spectrum, temporal evolution of the oscillations and mean and root-mean-square profiles of the species mole fraction, which in this case, was helium. Experiments were conducted using a variable nozzle facility. Angular deflection data were obtained using rainbow schlieren deflectometry across full field of color images taken at a temporal resolution of 60Hz. The flicker cycle was analyzed by instantaneous rainbow schlieren images, contour plots of deflection angle and helium mole fraction placed sequentially in time. Two observe the flow downstream, the tube was lowered with respect to the optical setup and images were taken at different axial planes. In this way, the laminar, transition and turbulent regions of the jet flow were observed. Abel inversion algorithm was utilized to reconstruct the refractive index field from the measurements of the beam deflection angle. The concentration field was then generated from the refractive index field. The phenomenon of vortex initiation and propagation in the flicker cycle was described by correlating the ray deflection angle and concentration contour plots. Experiments in the flickering jet reveal global oscillation in the flow field. The effect of jet exit Reynolds number and jet Richardson number on the flickering frequency was analyzed. The effect of jet Richardson number was more pronounced than that of the jet exit Reynolds number. The flow field was studies quantitatively in terms of temporal evolution and statistical description of helium mole fraction.

Pasumarthi, Kasyap S.↗

Femoral Blood Flow and Cardiac Output During Blood Flow Restricted Leg Press Exercise

Low load blood flow restricted resistance exercise (LBFR) causes muscle hypertrophy that may be stimulated by the local ischemic environment created by the cuff pressure. However, local blood flow (BF) during such exercise is not well understood. PURPOSE: To characterize femoral artery BF and cardiac output (CO) during leg press exercise (LP) performed at a high load (HL) and low load (LL) with different levels of cuff pressure. METHODS: Eleven subjects (men/women 4/7, age 31.4+/-12.8 y, weight 68.9+/-13.2 kg, mean+/-SD) performed 3 sets of supine left LP to fatigue with 90 s of rest in 4 conditions: HL (%1-RM/cuff pressure: 80%/0); LL (20%/0); LBFR(sub DBP) (20%/1.3 x diastolic blood pressure, BP); LBFR(sub SBP) (20%/1.3 x supine systolic BP). The cuff remained inflated throughout the LBFR exercise sessions. Artery diameter, velocity time integral (VTI), and stroke volume (SV) were measured using Doppler ultrasound at rest and immediately after each set of exercise. Heart rate (HR) was monitored using a 3-lead ECG. BF was calculated as VTI x vessel cross-sectional area. CO was calculated as HR x SV. The data obtained after each set of exercise were averaged and used for analyses. Multi-level modeling was used to determine the effect of exercise condition on dependent variables. Statistical significance was set a priori at p< 0.05. RESULTS: Artery diameter did not change from baseline. BF increased (p<0.05) after exercise in each condition except LBFR(sub SBP) in the order of HL (12.73+/-1.42 cm3,mean+/-SE) > LL (9.92+/-0.82 cm3) > LBFR(sub dBP)(6.47+/-0.79 cm3) > LBFR(sub SBP) (3.51+/-0.59 cm3). Blunted exercise induced increases occurred in HR, SV, and CO after LBFR compared to HL and LL. HR increased 45% after HL and LL and 28% after LBFR (p<0.05), but SV increased (p<0.05) only after HL. Consequently, the increase (p<0.05) in CO was greater in HL and LL (approximately 3 L/min) than in LBFR (approximately 1 L/min). CONCLUSION: BF during LBFR(sub SBP) was 1/3 of that observed in LL, which supports the hypothesis that local ischemia stimulates the LBFR hypertrophic response. As the cuff did not compress the artery, the ischemia may have occurred because of the blunted rise in CO or because arterial BP cannot overcome the cuff pressure. As LBFR(sub DBP) effectively reduced BF and CO with cuff pressures less than systolic BP, future studies should investigate the hypertrophic potential of LBFR at even lower cuff pressures.

Everett, M. E.↗

A Stellar-mass Black Hole in the Ultra-luminous X-ray Source M82 X-1

We have analyzed the archival XMM-Newton data of the archetypal Ultra-Luminous X-ray Source (ULX) M82 X-1 with an LO5 ksec exposure when the source was in the steady state. Thanks to the high photon statistics from the large effective area and long exposure, we were able to discriminate different X-ray continuum spectral models. Neither the standard accretion disk model (where the radial dependency of the disk effective temperature is T(r) proportional to r(sup -3/4)) nor a power-law model gives a satisfactory fit. In fact, observed curvature of the M82 X-1 spectrum was just between those of the two models. When the exponent of the radial dependence (p in T(r) proportional to r(sup -P)) of the disk temperature is allowed to be free, we obtained p = 0.61 (sup +0.03)(sub -0.02). Such a reduction of p from the standard value 3/4 under extremely high mass accretion rates is predicted from the accretion disk theory as a consequence of the radial energy advection. Thus, the accretion disk in M82 X-1 is considered to be in the Slim disk state, where an optically thick Advection Dominant Accretion Flow (ADAF) is taking place. We have applied a theoretical slim disk spectral model to M82 X-1, and estimated the black hole mass approximately equal to 19 - 32 solar mass. We conclude that M82 X-1 is a stellar black hole which has been produced through evolution of an extremely massive star, shining at a several times the super-Eddington luminosity.

Okajima, Takashi↗

Flight Mechanics Modeling and Simulation of the Earth Entry System

Introduction: The Mars Sample Return (MSR) Campaign being planned by NASA and ESA has the ambitious goal to return Mars samples back to Earth. This international collaboration had developed a concept of operations that included a ESA-designed Earth Return Orbiter (ERO) and NASA-designed Capture, Containment, and Return System (CCRS). The Earth Entry System (EES), consisting of a protective aeroshell that houses the samples as well as sample containment vessels, would conduct entry, descent, and landing (EDL) on a direct Earth trajectory. The EES would enter on a spin-stabilized ballistic trajectory with the goal to passively achieve aerodynamic stability throughout all regions of flight. The EDL sequence would end with the EES impacting the soft playa soil of the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR). As of the submission of this abstract, the MSR campaign is undergoing a re-architecture leading to a pause in EES development. However, the novel approaches developed in flight mechanics modeling and simulation can significantly benefit the greater IPPW community in the development of Earth return vehicles. This paper will present the latest state of EES flight mechanics modeling and simulation. The paper will highlight the simulation architecture developed and key lessons learned from understanding of EDL trajectory sensitivities. Modeling and Simulation: Figure 1 provides a high-level concept of operations for the approach, entry, descent, and landing (AEDL) phase of the CCRS-portion of MSR. The objective of EES flight mechanics is to model and simulate the EES trajectory from ERO separation to ground impact at UTTR. A variety of flight mechanics simulation models were utilized to model both exo-atmopsheric and atmospheric portions of flight. 42, a 6-DOF simulation developed at Goddard Space Flight Center, is utilized for propagating the attitude of EES during exo-atmospheric flight. 42 allows for a variety of spin eject mechanism scenarios to be simulated for analysis. 10 minutes prior to entry, the 42 states are handed off to the EDL sims. The prime EDL sim utilized by EES is the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2), a 6-DOF sim developed at Langley Research Center, and the independent verification and validation EDL sim utilized is DSENDS, a 6-DOF sim developed at Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Figure 2 provides a visualization of the flight mechanics simulation model flow through various points in the AEDL phase. Due to the existence of a variety of sim models, the EES flight mechanics team developed processes for data hand-off. These processes included the development of a centralized coordinate frame document, utilization of a single, centralized simulation input document for all sims to reference, and hand-off files containing both the technical data to be ingested by other flight mechanics sims as well as annotations of modeling assumptions utilized to generate the data. Figure~\ref{fig:post2simarchitecture} provides an overview of the POST2 sim architecture wherein POST2 ingests numerous subsystem models and input files. The dispersed state file generated by MONTE provides the position/velocity state of the trajectory while the 42 Handoff file provides the attitude. The aerodynamics database, delivered by the EES aeroscience team, is utilized to simulate the aerodynamic forces and moments experienced during EDL. A custom atmosphere model, developed by EES atmosphere team, is utilized to simulate the anticipated atmosphere environment around the region of Earth through which the EES trajectory flys. These inputs and subsystem models can be varied depending on the AEDL flight mechanics scenario being simulated. Monte Carlo simulations are utilized to generate statistical AEDL performance metrics in the form of scorecards and violin plots. Furthermore, outputs from the POST2 simulation are utilized for follow-on analyses including aerothermal and landing performance. \section{Flight Mechanics Lessons Learned} Though the EES flight mechanics team uncovered a variety of lessons learned through the analysis conducted to support CCRS through preliminary design review, this paper will highlight the most important lessons. A key AEDL performance goal is to ensure the landing footprint of EES remains on the UTTR south range. A common modeling strategy used in EDL analysis is One-Variable-At-a-Time (OVAT). OVAT analysis provides insight into the key drivers that affect AEDL performance metrics. Figure 3 shows the landing ellipses for single dispersion sources as compared to the baseline aggregate of all dispersions. The figure shows that atmosphere winds alone dominate the size of the footprint ellipse (note: EES does not use a parachute unlike previous Earth-return missions and is in wind-driven free fall for ~5min). The significance of the wind led the EES flight mechanics team to pursue the development of a Custom Atmosphere Model [4], in lieu of EarthGRAM [1], built on actual radiosonde wind measurements around the UTTR-region. This decision was driven by the realism in the generated footprint ellipses and lessons-learned from Stardust [5]. These findings will be invaluable for future Earth-return missions in providing an early understanding of the key drivers affecting footprint size and modeling considerations for which to account. Another lesson learned is tied to the AEDL performance goal of achieving passive stability throughout all regions of flight. It is well understood that blunt-body aeroshells are less stable as they transition from supersonic to subsonic. Eliminating a backshell does help improvestability; however, other phenomena such as roll-induced instability during terminal descent can still arise. The EES flight mechanics team developed stability metrics as tools to better understand the causes of and better predict the onset of dynamic instability. These tools were built upon analytical models developed by Jaffe [3] and Murphy [2]. The tools were shown to both be very accurate in correlation with actual unstable cases and useful in developing stability margin policies based on the vehicle design and simulation considerations (e.g. sphere-cone angle change, mass change, wind turbulence). These tools allowed for the current EES design to demonstrate the ability to achieve passive stability and can be an invaluable tool for consideration in the design of parachute-less Earth-return vehicles.

Rohan Deshmukh↗

Potential vorticity index

Using standard data analysis techniques, researchers explore the links between disturbance growth and quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity (PV) gradients; appearance and disappearance of cutoff lows and blocking highs and their relation to a zonal index (properly defined in terms of PV); and teleconnections between different flow patterns and their relation to the zonal index. It was found that the PV index and the eddy index correlate better than a zonal index (defined by zonal wind) and the eddy index. In the frequency domain there are three frequencies (.03, .07 and .17 cpd (cycle per day) corresponding to periods of 33, 14 and 6 days) at which PV index and the eddy index exhibit local maxima. The high correlation found at periods of 33 days is mainly due to eddy activity at high latitudes while the local correlation maxima found at the shorter periods are mainly due mid-latitude eddy activity. The correlation between the PV index and the geopotential height anomaly at 500 mb, at each grid point in the Northern Hemisphere, shows the existence of most of the teleconnection patterns summarized by Wallace and Gutzler (1981): the North Atlantic Oscillation, the North Pacific Oscillation, and the Pacific/North American patterns. Results show that the Isentropic Potential Vorticity (IPV) analysis can be a very useful and powerful tool when used to understand the dynamics of several large scale atmospheric systems. Although the data are limited to only one winter, and it is difficult to assess the statistical significance of the correlation coefficients presented here, the results are encouraging from physical viewpoint.

Barcilon, Albert↗

On the Choice of Variable for Atmospheric Moisture Analysis

The implications of using different control variables for the analysis of moisture observations in a global atmospheric data assimilation system are investigated. A moisture analysis based on either mixing ratio or specific humidity is prone to large extrapolation errors, due to the high variability in space and time of these parameters and to the difficulties in modeling their error covariances. Using the logarithm of specific humidity does not alleviate these problems, and has the further disadvantage that very dry background estimates cannot be effectively corrected by observations. Relative humidity is a better choice from a statistical point of view, because this field is spatially and temporally more coherent and error statistics are therefore easier to obtain. If, however, the analysis is designed to preserve relative humidity in the absence of moisture observations, then the analyzed specific humidity field depends entirely on analyzed temperature changes. If the model has a cool bias in the stratosphere this will lead to an unstable accumulation of excess moisture there. A pseudo-relative humidity can be defined by scaling the mixing ratio by the background saturation mixing ratio. A univariate pseudo-relative humidity analysis will preserve the specific humidity field in the absence of moisture observations. A pseudorelative humidity analysis is shown to be equivalent to a mixing ratio analysis with flow-dependent covariances. In the presence of multivariate (temperature-moisture) observations it produces analyzed relative humidity values that are nearly identical to those produced by a relative humidity analysis. Based on a time series analysis of radiosonde observed-minus-background differences it appears to be more justifiable to neglect specific humidity-temperature correlations (in a univariate pseudo-relative humidity analysis) than to neglect relative humidity-temperature correlations (in a univariate relative humidity analysis). A pseudo-relative humidity analysis is easily implemented in an existing moisture analysis system, by simply scaling observed-minus background moisture residuals prior to solving the analysis equation, and rescaling the analyzed increments afterward.

Dee, Dick P.↗

Breaking Wave Field Statistics With A Multi-Layer Model

The statistics of breaking wave fields are characterised within a novel multi-layer framework, which generalises the single-layer Saint-Venant system into a multi-layer and non-hydrostatic formulation of the Navier–Stokes equations. We simulate an ensemble of phase-resolved surface wave fields in physical space, where strong nonlinearities, including directional wave breaking and the subsequent highly rotational flow motion, are modelled, without surface overturning. We extract the kinematics of wave breaking by identifying breaking fronts and their speed, for freely evolving wave fields initialised with typical wind wave spectra. The Λ(c) distribution, defined as the length of breaking fronts (per unit area) moving with speed c to c + dc following Phillips (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 156, 1985, pp. 505–531), is reported for a broad range of conditions. We recover the Λ(c) ∝ c−6 scaling without wind forcing for sufficiently steep wave fields. A scaling of Λ(c) based solely on the root-mean-square slope and peak wave phase speed is shown to describe the modelled breaking distributions well. The modelled breaking distributions are in good agreement with field measurements and the proposed scaling can be applied successfully to the observational data sets. The present work paves the way for simulations of the turbulent upper ocean directly coupled to a realistic breaking wave dynamics, including Langmuir turbulence, and other sub-mesoscale processes.

Jiarong Wu↗

The expanding photosphere method applied to SN 1992am AT cz = 14 600 km/s

We present photometry and spectroscopy of Supernova (SN) 1992am for five months following its discovery by the Calan Cerro-Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO) SN search. These data show SN 1992am to be type II-P, displaying hydrogen in its spectrum and the typical shoulder in its light curve. The photometric data and the distance from our own analysis are used to construct the supernova's bolometric light curve. Using the bolometric light curve, we estimate SN 1992am ejected approximately 0.30 solar mass of Ni-56, an amount four times larger than that of other well studied SNe II. SN 1992am's; host galaxy lies at a redshift of cz = 14 600 km s(exp -1), making it one of the most distant SNe II discovered, and an important application of the Expanding Photsphere Method. Since z = 0.05 is large enough for redshift-dependent effects to matter, we develop the technique to derive luminosity distances with the Expanding Photosphere Method at any redshift, and apply this method to SN 1992am. The derived distance, D = 180(sub -25) (sup +30) Mpc, is independent of all other rungs in the extragalactic distance ladder. The redshift of SN 1992am's host galaxy is sufficiently large that uncertainties due to perturbations in the smooth Hubble flow should be smaller than 10%. The Hubble ratio derived from the distance and redshift of this single object is H(sub 0) = 81(sub -15) (sup +17) km s(exp -1) Mpc(exp -1). In the future, with more of these distant objects, we hope to establish an independent and statistically robust estimate of H(sub 0) based solely on type II supernovae.

Schmidt, Brian P.↗

Prediction of Acoustic Environments from Horizontal Rocket Firings

In recent years, advances in research and engineering have led to more powerful launch vehicles which can reach areas of space not yet explored. These more powerful vehicles yield acoustic environments potentially destructive to the vehicle or surrounding structures. Therefore, it has become increasingly important to be able to predict the acoustic environments created by these vehicles in order to avoid structural and/or competent failure. The current industry standard technique for predicting launch-induced acoustic environments was developed by Eldred in the early 1970's and is published in NASA SP-80721. Recent work2 has shown Eldred's technique to be inaccurate for current state-of-the-art launch vehicles. Due to the high cost of full-scale and even sub-scale rocket experiments, very little rocket noise data is available. Furthermore, much of the work thought to be applicable to rocket noise has been done with heated jets. Tam3,4 has done an extensive amount of research on jets of different nozzle exit shape, diameter, velocity, and temperature. Though the values of these parameters, especially exit velocity and temperature, are often very low compared to these values in rockets, a lot can be learned about rocket noise from jet noise literature. The turbulent nature of jet and rocket exhausts is quite similar. Both exhausts contain turbulent structures of varying scale-termed the fine and large scale turbulence by Tam. The finescale turbulence is due to small eddies from the jet plume interacting with the ambient atmosphere. According to Tam et al., the noise radiated by this envelope of small-scale turbulence is statistically isotropic. Hence, one would expect the noise from the small scale turbulence of the jet to be nearly omni-directional. The coherent nature of the large-scale turbulence results in interference of the noise radiated from different spatial locations within the jet. This interference-whether it is constructive or destructive-results in highly directional noise radiation. Tam3 has proposed a model to predict the acoustic environment due to jets and while it works extremely well for jets, it was found to be inappropriate for rockets8. A model to predict the acoustic environment due to a launch vehicle in the far-field which incorporates concepts from both Eldred and Tam was created. This was done using five sets of horizontally fired rocket data, obtained between 2008 and 2012. Three of these rockets use solid propellant and two use liquid propellant. Through scaling analysis, it is shown that liquid and solid rocket motors exhibit similar spectra at similar amplitudes. This model is accurate for these five data sets within 5 dB of the measured data for receiver angles of 30deg to 160deg (with respect to the downstream exhaust centerline). The model uses the following vehicle parameters: nozzle exit diameter and velocity, radial distance from source to receiver, receiver angle, mass flow rate, and acoustic efficiency.

Giacomoni, Clothilde↗

Hierarchical-embedding autoencoder with a predictor as efficient architecture for learning time-evolution in multi-scale turbulent flows

We introduce a scale-aware, data-driven deep learning modeling framework for accurately predicting the time evolution of multi-scale turbulent plasma and liquid flows. The approach is motivated by the idea of scale separation. Structures of vastly different length scales emerge in these systems, and interactions between these structures occur only locally. To exploit this structure, the flow state is transformed by a hierarchical, fully convolutional autoencoder, not into a single embedding layer as in conventional convolutional surrogate models, but into a series of embedding layers. A stepwise training strategy ensures that fine-scale features are encoded on a high-resolution grid, while larger structures are represented on progressively coarser layers. The time evolution predictor advances all embedding layers in sync, capturing local interactions between features at the same scale as well as between all scales. This approach enables efficient modeling of multi-scale systems since negligible interactions between distant, small-scale structures do not need to be directly modeled. Our hierarchical-embedding autoencoder with a predictor framework is evaluated on canonical examples of multi-scale turbulence: two-dimensional Kolmogorov flow and Hasegawa–Wakatani plasma turbulence. In both cases, the proposed framework significantly improves predictive accuracy relative to conventional convolutional network architectures. A significant improvement in prediction accuracy was observed for crucial statistical characteristics of the Hasegawa–Wakatani plasma as well as for individual trajectories of the Kolmogorov flow turbulence. Importantly, the model's rollout for the Hasegawa–Wakatani problem demonstrates a four-order-of-magnitude speedup compared to traditional numerical solvers.

Khrabry, Alexander I. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United↗

Examining the Impacts of High-Resolution Land Surface Initialization on Model Predictions of Convection in the Southeastern U.S.

One of the most challenging weather forecast problems in the southeastern U.S. is daily summertime pulse convection. During the summer, atmospheric flow and forcing are generally weak in this region; thus, convection typically initiates in response to local forcing along sea/lake breezes, and other discontinuities often related to horizontal gradients in surface heating rates. Numerical simulations of pulse convection usually have low skill, even in local predictions at high resolution, due to the inherent chaotic nature of these precipitation systems. Forecast errors can arise from assumptions within physics parameterizations, model resolution limitations, as well as uncertainties in both the initial state of the atmosphere and land surface variables such as soil moisture and temperature. For this study, it is hypothesized that high-resolution, consistent representations of surface properties such as soil moisture and temperature, ground fluxes, and vegetation are necessary to better simulate the interactions between the land surface and atmosphere, and ultimately improve predictions of local circulations and summertime pulse convection. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center has been conducting studies to examine the impacts of high-resolution land surface initialization data generated by offline simulations of the NASA Land Informatiot~ System (LIS) on subsequent numerical forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (Case et al. 2008, to appear in the Journal of Hydrometeorology). Case et al. presents improvements to simulated sea breezes and surface verification statistics over Florida by initializing WRF with land surface variables from an offline LIS spin-up run, conducted on the exact WRF domain and resolution. The current project extends the previous work over Florida, focusing on selected case studies of typical pulse convection over the southeastern U.S., with an emphasis on improving local short-term WRF simulations over the Mobile, AL and Miami, FL NWS county warning areas. Future efforts may involve examining the impacts of assimilating remotely-sensed soil moisture data, and/or introducing weekly greenness vegetation fraction composites (as opposed to monthly climatologies) into ol'fline NASA LIS runs. Based on positive impacts, the offline LIS runs could be transitioned into an operational mode, providing land surface initialization data to NWS forecast offices in real time.

Case, Jonathan L.↗