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At least 523 records · Page 29

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DOE OSTI2021

Distributional Deep Reinforcement Learning-Based Emergency Frequency Control

Emergency frequency control is one of the most critical approaches to maintain power system stability after major disturbances. With the increasing number of grid-connected renewable energy sources, existing model-based methods of frequency control are facing up with challenges of computational speed and scalability for large-scale systems. In this paper, the emergency frequency control problem is formulated as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and solved through a novel Distributional Deep Reinforcement Learning (DDRL) method, namely the distributional soft actor critic (DSAC) method. Compared with other RL methods that only estimate the mean value, the proposed DSAC model estimates the distribution of value function over returns. This advancement can lead to more insights and knowledge for the agent, with the benefit of a much faster and more stable learning process, and the improved frequency control performance. Here, the simulation results on IEEE 39-bus and IEEE 118-bus systems demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of proposed models, as well as the advantage compared to other state-of-the-art DRL algorithms.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Hybrid Data-Driven and Model-Based Anomaly Detection Scheme for DER Operation

This paper proposes a hybrid data and model-based anomaly detection scheme to secure the operation of distributed energy resources (DERs) in distribution grids. Data-driven autoencoders are set up at the edge device level and they use local DER operational data as inputs. The abnormal statuses are detected by analyzing reconstruction errors. In parallel, modelbased state estimation (SE) is set up at the central level and it uses system-wide models and measurements as data inputs. The anomalies are identified by analyzing measurement residuals. The hybrid scheme preserves the benefits of both data-driven and model-based analyses and thus improves the robustness and the accuracy of anomaly detection. Numerical tests based on the model of a real distribution feeder in Southern California highlight the proposed scheme's effectiveness and benefits.

anomaly detection↗

DOE OSTI2024

NPFTURBULENCE: Best Estimate Aerosol Size Distribution by airborne measurements

The original data were collected during the field campaign of “Turbulent layers promoting New Particle Formation” experiment (NPFTURBULENCE; https://www.arm.gov/research/campaigns/aaf2024npfturbulence) over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) Atmospheric Observatory (https://www.arm.gov/capabilities/observatories/sgp ) in north-central Oklahoma. The ARM Aerial Facility ArcticShark uncrewed aerial system (UAS) was based at Blackwell–Tonkawa Municipal Airport (IATA: BWL, ICAO: KBKN, FAA LID: BKN, 36.74475° N, 97.34918° W, 313.9 m MSL), for the field campaign from May 5 through May 29, 2024. The ArcticShark UAS performed 11 flights, including 10 research flights over the Central Facility of the ARM SGP to measure atmospheric state, turbulence, surface IT temperature and imagery, aerosol number concentration and size distribution. The current data set presents Best Estimate Aerosol Size Distribution: a merged aerosol size distribution composed of the data from 2 sensors: miniaturized Scanning Electrical Mobility Sizer (mSEMS) and Portable Optical Particle Spectrometer (POPS). The mSEMS data were interpolated to 1 second from “native” time resolution of about 15 second to match the other probe. The POPS data were converted from equivalent optical size into geometric size using value of aerosol refractive index of 1.477 from the HISCALE field campaign (same geographical area, altitudes, and time of year; http://www.arm.gov/campaigns/aaf2016hiscale ).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2021

Spatiotemporal Methane Emissions from Global Reservoirs

Methane (CH4) is a greenhouse gas which contributes significantly to global warming and has atmospheric concentrations which have increased considerably in the last few decades, primarily due to human-induced emissions. Natural sources such as wetlands and inland aquatic systems (i.e., reservoirs, lakes, rivers) contribute substantially to global emissions but these natural systems comprise the most uncertain components of the CH4 budget. This study addresses multiple gaps and uncertainties associated with global CH4 emissions from reservoirs and undertakes a spatial and temporal assessment of global reservoir emissions. The results from this study suggest that reservoirs occupy a global area about 300,000 km2 (comparable to the size of the country of Italy) and emit 10.1 Tg CH4 yr-1. We identify data and methodological elements of previous estimates that indicate they may overestimate these emissions. This work provides a suite of global data sets, gridded at 0.25° × 0.25°, considering reservoir surface area, spatial distribution, eco-climatic system type, and the full annual cycle of daily CH4 emissions.

Spatiotemporal↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Low Latency Flux and Concentration Datasets in Support of Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Based on NASA's GEOS Modeling and Data Assimilation System

We present efforts to develop space-based greenhouse gas monitoring systems that can provide low latency information and traceability to independent observations. Through support from its Carbon Monitoring System program, NASA has developed the capability to assimilate XCO2 retrievals from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory, 2 (OCO-2) into the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS) to create gap-filled, three-dimensional (3D) estimates of CO2 mixing ratio. When OCO-2 data are not available, concentration fields are further informed by a bottom-up flux package based on remotely sensed fire radiative power, nighttime lights, and vegetation reflectance combined with estimates of atmospheric growth rate based on surface in situ data. The 3D nature of this dataset supports evaluation with independent aircraft data, helping to ensure transparency of remotely sensed data products. These quasi-operational data are currently produced 2-3 months behind real time and are distributed via NASA and international dashboard services to a variety of end users. In this presentation, we provide an overview of the system as well as remaining data gaps and modeling challenges. We also highlight the application of this dataset for detecting emissions anomalies associated with COVID-19 and comparing against independent emissions estimates. Finally, we highlight a new NASA initiative called the Earth Information System (EIS), which aims to support open science and applications by leveraging emerging cloud computing capabilities to increase access to NASA’s greenhouse gas datasets, opportunities for co-development, and transparency in methods for analysis and flux attribution.

Lesley Ott↗

NASA NTRS2000

An Approach to Experimental Design for the Computer Analysis of Complex Phenomenon

The ability to make credible system assessments, predictions and design decisions related to engineered systems and other complex phenomenon is key to a successful program for many large-scale investigations in government and industry. Recently, many of these large-scale analyses have turned to computational simulation to provide much of the required information. Addressing specific goals in the computer analysis of these complex phenomenon is often accomplished through the use of performance measures that are based on system response models. The response models are constructed using computer-generated responses together with physical test results where possible. They are often based on probabilistically defined inputs and generally require estimation of a set of response modeling parameters. As a consequence, the performance measures are themselves distributed quantities reflecting these variabilities and uncertainties. Uncertainty in the values of the performance measures leads to uncertainties in predicted performance and can cloud the decisions required of the analysis. A specific goal of this research has been to develop methodology that will reduce this uncertainty in an analysis environment where limited resources and system complexity together restrict the number of simulations that can be performed. An approach has been developed that is based on evaluation of the potential information provided for each "intelligently selected" candidate set of computer runs. Each candidate is evaluated by partitioning the performance measure uncertainty into two components - one component that could be explained through the additional computational simulation runs and a second that would remain uncertain. The portion explained is estimated using a probabilistic evaluation of likely results for the additional computational analyses based on what is currently known about the system. The set of runs indicating the largest potential reduction in uncertainty is then selected and the computational simulations are performed. Examples are provided to demonstrate this approach on small scale problems. These examples give encouraging results. Directions for further research are indicated.

Rutherford, Brian↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

The currently planned schedule for advanced Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities to support human exploration missions is unlikely to generate sufficient data to enable statistically-supportable, precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates to meet existing crew safety expectations. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches –namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities –will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of International Space Station (ISS) ECLSS operations, a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass. A Bayesian estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, any inaccuracy in theseprior estimates currently hasa strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Reliability↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

Reliability↗

DOE OSTI2023

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Recovery Tool)

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Restoration Tool): Each year hurricanes and tropical storms in the United States damage critical infrastructure assets, disrupt the services they provide, and cause millions to billions of dollars in economic impacts due to extended recovery times. The Storm-DEPART tool and analytical output enable more impactful data-driven decision-making capabilities and strengthen national-level disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. Storm-DEPART, built through multi-month collaboration between Entergy and INL, combines Entergy’s critical infrastructure inventory data with weather forecasts to predict damages to Electric utility’s assets due to natural disasters and the estimated recovery support needed, including time, materials, and resource allocation. In the event of an approaching hurricane, this innovative solution can assess potential damage to power generation capacity, transmission grids, distribution networks, and communications assets from wind bands, storm surge, and flooding. With more effective predictions, Entergy can more efficiently allocate resources to mitigate impacts and optimize recovery for customers. Storm-DEPART also allows Electric utilities the ability to apply a planning scenario and model expected damage to better inform infrastructure restoration needs leading to enhance system resiliency. The technology is fully transferrable to other electric utilities with the same damage estimating challenges. The INL team is working on the evolution of Storm-DEPART to include ice event damage prediction framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Preventive Power Outage Estimation Based on a Novel Scenario Clustering Strategy

The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events is challenging power grid operation. For extreme weather events, the system operator is responsible for estimating the power outages and scheduling the restoration resources. This paper proposes an outage evaluation framework to identify the possible unserved load profiles, vulnerable areas, and mobile energy adequacy. The outputs of an outage prediction model tool are used to generate numerous faulted line scenarios. Next, each scenario's nodal unserved load profile is obtained by solving a three-phase restoration model that considers repair crews and mobile energy resources (MERs). Then, a novel scenario clustering strategy is developed to cluster the unserved load profiles into multiple representative profiles which the system operator can focus on. Finally, case studies on a distribution system evaluate the damage caused by an extreme weather event and verify the effectiveness of the proposed scenario clustering strategy.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING,POWER TRANSMISSION AND D↗

NASA NTRS1993

Load Balancing Using Time Series Analysis for Soft Real Time Systems with Statistically Periodic Loads

This thesis provides design and analysis of techniques for global load balancing on ensemble architectures running soft-real-time object-oriented applications with statistically periodic loads. It focuses on estimating the instantaneous average load over all the processing elements. The major contribution is the use of explicit stochastic process models for both the loading and the averaging itself. These models are exploited via statistical time-series analysis and Bayesian inference to provide improved average load estimates, and thus to facilitate global load balancing. This thesis explains the distributed algorithms used and provides some optimality results. It also describes the algorithms' implementation and gives performance results from simulation. These results show that our techniques allow more accurate estimation of the global system load ing, resulting in fewer object migration than local methods. Our method is shown to provide superior performance, relative not only to static load-balancing schemes but also to many adaptive methods.

REAL TIME↗

NASA NTRS1976

On the detection of a cometary mass distribution

The problem of detecting a possible cometary distribution on the fringes of the solar system is examined. The acceleration of a space probe due to a hypothetical cometary mass distribution with the surface density rising to a maximum and subsequently falling off with increasing distance from the sun is analyzed. The total minimum detectable cometary mass for the Pioneer and Mariner spacecraft is estimated on the basis of this model to be on the order of 1000 earth masses. Precision tracking of deep space probes is less sensitive by three orders of magnitude for the detection of an unseen cometary mass distribution at the fringes of the solar system than are the secular perturbations of long-period comets.

Boss, A. P.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Density reconstruction in convergent high-energy-density systems using x-ray radiography and Bayesian inference

X-ray radiography is a technique frequently used to diagnose convergent high-energy-density (HED) systems, such as inertial confinement fusion implosion, and provides unique information that is not available through self-emission measurements. In this work, we investigate the scope and limits of that information using a radiography simulation combined with the Bayesian inference workflow. The accuracy of density reconstruction from simulated radiographs of spherical implosions driven with 27 kJ laser energy is assessed, including the increase or decrease in accuracy due to the addition of Lagrangian marker layers, Poisson noise, and improved prior information. This work is the first to present the full uncertainty distributions inferred from radiography analysis in HED systems and demonstrates the importance of constructing the full posterior probability density, as opposed to a point estimate, due to the modal structure of the likelihood surface introduced by typical experimental noise sources. This general methodology can be used both for robust analysis of radiographic data and for an improved design of radiography experiments by modeling the full experimental system.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1971

Estimating Weibull parameters for materials

The statistical analysis of strength and fracture of materials in general, with application to fiber composites are discussed. The weakest link model is considered in a fairly general form, and the resulting equations are demonstrated by using a Weibull distribution for flaws. This distribution appears naturally in a variety of problems, and therefore additional attention is devoted to analysis and statistical estimation connected with this distribution. Special working charts are included to facilitate interpretation of observed data and estimation of parameters. Implications of the size effect are considered for various kinds of flaw distributions. Failure and damage in a fiber-reinforced system are described. Some useful graphs are included for predicting the strength of such a system. Recent data on organic-fiber (PRD 49) composite material is analyzed by the Weibull distribution with the methods presented.

Robinson, E. Y.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Evaluation of usefulness of Skylab EREP S-190 and S-192 imagery in multistage forest surveys

The author has identified the following significant results. The digital timber volume prediction system was tested with another test area in the Trinity Alps. The estimated gain in precision was somewhat lower than the estimate for the first test area (35%). A combined interpretation of the two areas was made, yielding an estimated gain of 44%, with high statistical significance. This interpretation was used to calibrate the system for an interpretation of 43 primary sample units distributed over 1600 square miles. Preliminary results indicate that a gain of 35% can be realized over this large area in northern California.

Langley, P. G.↗

NASA NTRS1996

First Two Years of Observations NASA ACTS Propagation Experiment Central Oklahoma Site

Continuous observations from December 1, 1993 through November 30, 1995 were made at the ACTS Propagation Terminal on the roof of the Sarkeys Energy Center at the University of Oklahoma in Norman, Oklahoma. Beacon and radiometer observations were combined to calibrate the beacon system for the estimation of total attenuation (attenuation relative to free space) and attenuation relative to clear sky (gaseous absorption component removed). Empirical cumulative distributions (edf's) were compiled for each month of observation and for each year. The annual edf's are displayed in the figures, the monthly and annual edf's are listed in the tables. The tables are organized by blocks and pages within a block. The blocks correspond to the headings in the edf files generated by the ACTS Preprocessing (actspp) software and contained in the fourth disk in the set of ACTS Propagation Experiment CD-ROMs generated by the University of Texas.

Crane, Robert K.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Application of future remote sensing systems to irrigation

Area estimates of irrigated crops and knowledge of crop type are required for modeling water consumption to assist farmers, rangers, and agricultural consultants in scheduling irrigation for distributed management of crop yields. Information on canopy physiology and soil moisture status on a spatial basis is potentially available from remote sensors, so the questions to be addressed relate to: (1) timing (data frequency, instantaneous and integrated measurement); and scheduling (widely distributed spatial demands); (2) spatial resolution; (3) radiometric and geometric accuracy and geoencoding; and (4) information/data distribution. This latter should be overnight, with no central storage, onsite capture, and low cost.

Miller, L. D.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Load Balancing Using Time Series Analysis for Soft Real Time Systems with Statistically Periodic Loads

This thesis provides design and analysis of techniques for global load balancing on ensemble architectures running soft-real-time object-oriented applications with statistically periodic loads. It focuses on estimating the instantaneous average load over all the processing elements. The major contribution is the use of explicit stochastic process models for both the loading and the averaging itself. These models are exploited via statistical time-series analysis and Bayesian inference to provide improved average load estimates, and thus to facilitate global load balancing. This thesis explains the distributed algorithms used and provides some optimality results. It also describes the algorithms' implementation and gives performance results from simulation. These results show that the authors' techniques allow more accurate estimation of the global system loading, resulting in fewer object migrations than local methods. The authors' method is shown to provide superior performance, relative not only to static load-balancing schemes but also to many adaptive load-balancing methods. Results from a preliminary analysis of another system and from simulation with a synthetic load provide some evidence of more general applicability.

LOAD CONTROL↗