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At least 523 records · Page 29

Tool for Developing Integrated Strategies for Decontamination and Waste Management - 20291

Management of waste from chemical, biological, and radiological incidents is complicated by the fact that decontamination decisions have a profound impact on the characteristics of resulting waste streams. Wide-area biological and radiological incidents could produce massive quantities of waste that may need to be treated on-site and sent for subsequent disposal as non-contaminated materials, or else be directly disposed of as contaminated materials. The EPA has developed the Waste Estimation Support Tool (WEST) for characterizing and quantifying biological and radiological waste that may be generated from decontamination efforts. This paper focuses on the WEST's uses for radiological incidents. WEST combines Geographic Information System (GIS)-based analysis of externally-supplied plume data, infrastructure databases derived from the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA's) Hazus tool [1], and satellite imagery surface recognition algorithms to combine the composition and square footage of the buildings in the plume with estimates of the materials between the buildings in the plume. The resulting GIS data files are then imported into a Microsoft Access database application, where they are combined with information about the nature and concentration of contaminants, and then subjected to decontamination strategies for different contaminated surfaces. The tool provides estimates of the type and quantities of potential wastes resulting from simulated decontamination and/or demolition activities and includes estimates of the remaining contamination levels including residual contamination contained within each waste stream. Estimates are presented at several levels of detail, allowing users to obtain needed data at the desired resolution. These include estimates for the total affected area, estimates by contamination zone, estimates by decontamination method(s), and estimates by building type (occupancy classification). EPA is currently developing the next version of WEST which will include several substantial enhancements. The most significant improvement for the next version of WEST will include the ability for users to develop contamination scenarios and waste estimates based on previously developed, readily available, and geographically specific infrastructure data. Instead of using WEST's default infrastructure data based on FEMA's Hazus tool, users will be able to import their own building data specific to the geographically affected area. This capability may substantially decrease uncertainties in the resulting waste estimates because the results will be based on actual building data (numbers of each type, square footage, building height, etc.). Two other significant enhancements will be the ability to generate waste estimates for vehicles and biomass. In addition to building debris and building decontamination waste, vehicles and biomass will likely constitute a significant percentage of the total waste which may result from wide area contamination events. This presentation will present the most recent version of WEST, which includes such considerations as affected biomass (e.g., trees), vehicles, and the ability to replace the default Hazus infrastructure databases with custom infrastructure databases. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering in multi-ton scale dark matter experiments: classification of vector and scalar interactions new physics signals

We classify new physics signals in coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering (CEνNS) processes induced by 8B solar neutrinos in multi-ton xenon dark matter (DM) detectors. Our analysis focuses on vector and scalar interactions in the effective and light mediator limits after considering the constraints emerging from the recent COHERENT data and neutrino masses. In both cases we identify a region where measurements of the event spectrum alone suffice to establish whether the new physics signal is related with vector or scalar couplings. We identify as well a region where measurements of the recoil spectrum are required so to establish the nature of the new interaction, and categorize the spectral features that enable distinguishing the vector from the scalar case. We demonstrate that measurements of the isospin nature of the new interaction and thereby removal of isospin related degeneracies are possible by combining independent measurements from two different detectors. We also comment on the status of searches for vector and scalar interactions for on-going multi-ton year xenon experiments.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Comparative Analysis and Classification of Cassette Exons and Constitutive Exons

Alternative splicing (AS) is a major engine that drives proteome diversity in mammalian genomes and is a widespread cause of human hereditary diseases. More than 95% of genes in the human genome are alternatively spliced, and the most common type of AS is the cassette exon. Recent discoveries have demonstrated that the cassette exon plays an important role in genetic diseases. To discover the formation mechanism of cassette exon events, we statistically analyze cassette exons and find that cassette exon events are strongly influenced by individual exons that are smaller in size and that have a lower GC content, more codon terminations, and weaker splice sites. We propose an improved random-forest-based hybrid method of distinguishing cassette exons from constitutive exons. Our method achieves a high accuracy in classifying cassette exons and constitutive exons and is verified to outperform previous approaches. It is anticipated that this study will facilitate a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms in cassette exons.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Graph theory and nighttime imagery based microgrid design

Reducing the duration and frequency of blackouts in remote communities poses an engineering challenge for grid operators. Outage effects can also be mitigated locally through microgrids. This paper develops a systematic procedure to account for these challenges by creating microgrids prioritizing high value assets within vulnerable communities. Nighttime satellite imagery is used to identify vulnerable communities. Using an asset classification and rating system, multi-asset clusters within these communities are prioritized. Infrastructure data, geographic information systems, satellite imagery, and spectral clustering are used to form and rank microgrid candidates. A microgrid sizing algorithm is included to guide through the microgrid design process. Finally, an application of the methodology is presented using real event, location, and asset data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Pattern Discovery in Internet Background Radiation

Internet Background Radiation (IBR) is observed in empty network address spaces. No traffic should arrive there, but it does in overwhelming quantities, gathering evidences of attacks, malwares and misconfigurations. The study of IBR helps to detect spreading network problems, common vulnerabilities and attack trends. However, network traffic data evolves quickly and is of high volume and diversity, i.e., an outstanding big data challenge. When used to assist network security, it also requires the online classification of dynamic streaming data. In this paper, we introduce an AGgregation & Mode (AGM) vector to represent network traffic. The AGM format characterizes IP hosts by extracting aggregated and mode values of IP header fields, and without inspecting payloads. We performed clustering and statistical analysis to explore six months of IBR from 2012 with the AGM mapping. The discovered patterns allow building a classification of IBR, which identifies phenomena that have been actively polluting the Internet for years. The AGM representation is light and tailored for monitoring and pattern discovery. We show that AGM vectors are suitable to analyze large volumes of network traffic: they capture permanent operations, such as long term scanning, as well as bursty events from targeted attacks and short term incidents.

Iglesias, Felix↗

Modeling Malaria Transmission in Thailand and Indonesia

Malaria Modeling and Surveillance is a project in the NASA Applied Sciences Public Health Applications Program. The main objectives of this project are: 1) identification of the potential breeding sites for major vector species: 2) implementation of a malaria transmission model to identify they key factors that sustain or intensify malaria transmission; and 3) implementation of a risk algorithm to predict the occurrence of malaria and its transmission intensity. Remote sensing and GIs are the essential elements of this project. The NASA Earth science data sets used in this project include AVHRR Pathfinder, TRMM, MODIS, NSIPP and SIESIP. Textural-contextual classifications are used to identify small larval habitats. Neural network methods are used to model malaria cases as a function of precipitation, temperatures, humidity and vegetation. Hindcastings based on these environmental parameters have shown good agreement to epidemiological records. Examples for spatio-temporal modeling of malaria transmissions in Southeast Asia are given. Discrete event simulations were used for modeling the detailed interactions among the vector life cycle, sporogonic cycle and human infection cycle, under the explicit influences of selected extrinsic and intrinsic factors. The output of the model includes the individual infection status and the quantities normally observed in field studies, such as mosquito biting rates, sporozoite infection rates, gametocyte prevalence and incidence. Results are in good agreement with mosquito vector and human malaria data acquired by Coleman et al. over 4.5 years in Kong Mong Tha, a remote village in western Thailand. Application of our models is not restricted to Southeast Asia. The model and techniques are equally applicable to other regions of the world, when appropriate epidemiological and vector ecological parameters are used as input.

Kiang, Richard↗

Assessment of climate variability of the Greenland ice sheet: Integration of in situ and satellite data

The proposed research involves the application of multispectral satellite data in combination with ground truth measurements to monitor surface properties of the Greenland ice sheet which are essential for describing the energy and mass of the ice sheet. Several key components of the energy balance are parameterized using satellite data and in situ measurements. The analysis will be done for a ten year time period in order to get statistics on the seasonal and interannual variations of the surface processes and the climatology. Our goal is to investigate to what accuracy and over what geographic areas large scale snow properties and radiative fluxes can be derived based upon a combination of available remote sensing and meterological data sets. Data analysis showed the following results: (1)cloud classification based on longwave sky radiation revealed that overcast sky occurred for 25% of the time in winter, and for 15% in spring and summer respectively (winter and summer both show the same occurrence of clear sky of approximately 26%); (2) comparison of aerodynamic profile method with eddy correlation method to derive sensible and latent heat flux showed good agreement in the diurnal cycle and the turbulent fluxes were underestimated with the aerodynamic method by 10 - 30% as compared to the in situ eddy flux method; (3) the katabatic wind shows a distinct diurnal cycle with a maximum in the morning (7-9 h solar time) and a minimum in the later afternoon (18 h solar time); (4) snow grain size was modeled with a surface energy balance model (SNTHERM) and compared with in situ measurements. Sharp decreases in the modeled snow grain size, caused by accumulation events such as precipitation and deposition, could be verified with observational data; (4) radiative transfer modeling of firn supports our beliefs that the observed trends in 18 and 19 GHz passive microwave brightness temperatures are attributable to accumulation rate changes (modeling also indicates the above relationship is detectable because of the presence of depth hoar; (5) snow melt can be detected by a distinct signal in the passive microwave cross-polarized gradient ratio (19h-37v)/(19h+37v) and has been used for wet/dry snow classification; (6) top of the atmosphere (TOA) broadband albedos were derived from AVHRR visible and near infrared reflectances for the entire ice sheet from May 1990 - June 1991, and the highest albedo values are found along the southeast coast of the ice sheet which is consistent with the summer peak of precipitation due to onshore flow loaded with high water vapor content (TOA albedo values dropped to around 40% along the south-western coast during July and August due to bare ice surfaces); and (7) the net all-wave radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere is negative over the entire ice sheet except for the summer months - June-July-August (in June, the net radiation balance is slightly positive over the dry snow areas--15 W/m2).

Steffen, K.↗

iPTF17cw: An Engine-driven Supernova Candidate Discovered Independent of a Gamma-Ray Trigger

We present the discovery, classification, and radio-to-X-ray follow-up observations of iPTF17cw, a broad-lined (BL) type Ic supernova (SN) discovered by the intermediate Palomar Transient Factory (iPTF). Although it is unrelated to the gravitational wave trigger, this SN was discovered as a happy by-product of the extensive observational campaign dedicated to the follow-up of Advanced LIGO event GW 170104. The spectroscopic properties and inferred peak bolometric luminosity of iPTF17cw are most similar to the gamma-ray-burst (GRB)-associated SN, SN 1998bw, while the shape of the r -band light curve is most similar to that of the relativistic SN, SN 2009bb. Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array (VLA) observations of the iPTF17cw field reveal a radio counterpart ≈10 times less luminous than SN 1998bw, and with a peak radio luminosity comparable to that of SN 2006aj/GRB 060218 and SN 2010bh/GRB 100316D. Our radio observations of iPTF17cw imply a relativistically expanding outflow. However, further late-time observations with the VLA in its most extended configuration are needed to confirm fading of the iPTF17cw radio counterpart at all frequencies. X-ray observations carried out with Chandra reveal the presence of an X-ray counterpart with a luminosity similar to that of SN 2010bh/GRB 100316D. Searching the Fermi catalog for possible γ -rays reveals that GRB 161228B is spatially and temporally compatible with iPTF17cw. The similarity to SN 1998bw and SN 2009bb, the radio and X-ray detections, and the potential association with GRB 161228B all point to iPTF17cw being a new candidate member of the rare sample of optically discovered engine-driven BL-Ic SNe associated with relativistic ejecta.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Application of Quantum Machine Learning to High Energy Physics Analysis at LHC Using Quantum Computer Simulators and Quantum Computer Hardware

Machine learning enjoys widespread success in High Energy Physics (HEP) analyses at LHC. However the ambitious HL-LHC program will require much more computing resources in the next two decades. Quantum computing may offer speed-up for HEP physics analyses at HL-LHC, and can be a new computational paradigm for big data analyses in High Energy Physics.We have successfully employed three methods (1) Variational Quantum Classifier (VQC) method, (2) Quantum Support Vector Machine Kernel (QSVM-kernel) method and (3) Quantum Neural Network (QNN) method for two LHC flagship analyses: ttH (Higgs production in association with two top quarks) and H->mumu (Higgs decay to two muons, the second generation fermions). We shall address the progressive improvements in performance from method (1) to method (3).We will present our experiences and results of a study on LHC High Energy Physics data analyses with IBM Quantum Simulator and Quantum Hardware (using IBM Qiskit framework), Google Quantum Simulator (using Google Cirq framework), and Amazon Quantum Simulator (using Amazon Braket cloud service). The work is in the context of a Qubit platform (a gate-model quantum computer). Taking into account the present limitation of hardware access, different quantum machine learning methods are studied on simulators and the results are compared with classical machine learning methods (BDT, classical Support Vector Machine and classical Neural Network). Furthermore, we do apply quantum machine learning on IBM quantum hardware to compare performance between quantum simulator and quantum hardware. The work is performed by an international and interdisciplinary collaboration with the Department of Physics and Department of Computer Sciences of University of Wisconsin, CERN Quantum Technology Initiative, IBM Research Zurich, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center, Fermilab Quantum Institute, BNL Computational Science Initiative, State University of New York at Stony Brook, and Quantum Computing and AI Research of Amazon Web Services. This work pioneers a close collaboration of academic institutions with industrial corporations in the High Energy Physics analyses effort. Though the size of event samples in future HL-LHC physics and the limited number of qubits pose some challenges to the Quantum Machine learning studies for High Energy Physics, more advanced quantum computers with larger number of qubits, reduced noise and improved running time (as envisioned by IBM and Google) may outperform classical machine learning in both classification power and in speed.Although the era of efficient quantum computing may still be years away, we have made promising progress and obtained preliminary results in applying quantum machine learning to High Energy Physics. A PROOF OF PRINCIPLE.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Classification of auroral precipitation fluxes by characteristic parameters and their effects on the coupling of the precipitation to the ambient ionosphere

The spectral shapes of the precipitating auroral electron flux spectra are quantified by an automated fitting procedure which represents each flux spectrum as a superposition of Maxwellian and Gaussian partial fluxes. This makes it possible to represent each spectrum by a set of characteristic parameters which describe the shape of that spectrum. A set of inverted-V events observed by the Low-Energy Plasma Instrument on Dynamics Explorer 2 near the fall 1981 equinox, has been analyzed. The distribution of the peak inverted-V energies in magnetic local time and invariant latitude (IL) has been obtained, and it is shown that by far the highest peak energies occur in the range of IL between 65 and 70 and MLT between 18 and 24 hrs. It is also shown how the difference in spectral characteristics of the precipitation fluxes between the cusp and the nighttime auroral zone determines the thermal coupling of the precipitation to the ambient ionosphere.

Fontheim, E. G.↗

Proton Radiation Therapy for the Treatment of Retinoblastoma

Purpose: To investigate long-term disease and toxicity outcomes for pediatric retinoblastoma patients treated with proton radiation therapy (PRT). Methods and Materials: This is a retrospective analysis of 49 retinoblastoma patients (60 eyes) treated with PRT between 1986 and 2012. Results: The majority (84%) of patients had bilateral disease, and nearly half (45%) had received prior chemotherapy. At a median follow-up of 8 years (range, 1-24 years), no patients died of retinoblastoma or developed metastatic disease. The post-PRT enucleation rate was low (18%), especially in patients with early-stage disease (11% for patients with International Classification for Intraocular Retinoblastoma [ICIR] stage A-B disease vs 23% for patients with ICIR stage C-D disease). Post-PRT ophthalmologic follow-up was available for 61% of the preserved eyes (30 of 49): 14 of 30 eyes (47%) had 20/40 visual acuity or better, 7 of 30 (23%) had moderate visual acuity (20/40-20/600), and 9 of 30 (30%) had little or no useful vision (worse than 20/600). Twelve of 60 treated eyes (20%) experienced a post-PRT event requiring intervention, with cataracts the most common (4 eyes). No patients developed an in-field second malignancy. Conclusions: Long-term follow-up of retinoblastoma patients treated with PRT demonstrates that PRT can achieve high local control rates, even in advanced cases, and many patients retain useful vision in the treated eye. Treatment-related ocular side effects were uncommon, and no radiation-associated malignancies were observed.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

A Twin Memristor Synapse for Spike Timing Dependent Learning in Neuromorphic Systems

Neuromorphic systems consist of a framework of spiking neurons interconnected via plastic synaptic junctures. The discovery of a two terminal passive nanoscale memristive device has spurred great interest in the realization of memristive plastic synapses in neural networks. In this work, a synapse structure is presented that utilizes a pair of memristors, to implement both positive and negative weights. The working scheme of this synapse as an electrical interlink between neurons is explained, and the relative timing of their spiking events is analyzed, which leads to a modulation of the synaptic weight in accordance with the spike-timing-dependent plasticity (STDP) rule. A digital pulse width modulation technique is proposed to achieve these variable changes to the synaptic weight. The synapse architecture presented is shown to have high accuracy when used in neural networks for classification tasks. Lastly, the energy requirement of the system during various phases of operation is presented.

Adnan, Md Musabbir↗

Generic Pressurized Water Reactor Model for SAPHIRE

Generic Pressurized Water Reactor Model for SAPHIRE This report contains a data dump from a SAPHIRE Generic Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) model. The intent is to have this information reviewed for export control and classification so that the generic model can be used external to INL. The facility model is not applicable to any existing nuclear reactors. The Generic PWR model does not represent any existing power plant and was created to support research and training purposes. Three distinct types of data are used to create a SAPHIRE risk model: - Event trees representing typical PWR sequences - Fault trees representing generic system performance - Basic events (e.g., component failure information) Where possible, we have taken information from publicly available documents and referenced that information tagged to a specific item.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

A Deep Chandra X-Ray Study of Neutron Star Coalescence GW170817

We report Chandra observations of GW170817, the first neutron star–neutron star merger discovered by the joint LIGO-Virgo Collaboration, and the first direct detection of gravitational radiation associated with an electromagnetic counterpart, Fermi short γ-ray burst GRB 170817A. The event occurred on 2017 August 17 and subsequent observations identified an optical counterpart, SSS17a, coincident with NGC 4993 (∼10″ separation). Early Chandra (Δt∼2 days) and Swift (Δt∼1--3 days) observations yielded non-detections at the optical position, but ∼9 days post-trigger Chandra monitoring revealed an X-ray point source coincident with SSS17a. We present two deep Chandra observations totaling ∼95 ks, collected on 2017 September 01–02 (Δt∼15--16 days). We detect X-ray emission from SSS17a with L{sub 0.3--10keV}=2.6{sub −0.4}{sup +0.5}×10{sup 38} erg s{sup −1}, and a power law spectrum of Γ=2.4±0.8. We find that the X-ray light curve from a binary NS coalescence associated with this source is consistent with the afterglow from an off-axis short γ-ray burst, with a jet angled ≳23° from the line of sight. This event marks both the first electromagnetic counterpart to a LIGO-Virgo gravitational-wave source and the first identification of an off-axis short GRB. We also confirm extended X-ray emission from NGC 4993 (L{sub 0.3--10keV}∼9×10{sup 38} erg s{sup −1}) consistent with its E/S0 galaxy classification, and report two new Chandra point sources in this field, CXOU J130948 and CXOU J130946.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

MULTI-WAVELENGTH OBSERVATIONS OF SUPERNOVA 2011ei: TIME-DEPENDENT CLASSIFICATION OF TYPE IIb AND Ib SUPERNOVAE AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THEIR PROGENITORS

We present X-ray, UV/optical, and radio observations of the stripped-envelope, core-collapse supernova (SN) 2011ei, one of the least luminous SNe IIb or Ib observed to date. Our observations begin with a discovery within {approx}1 day of explosion and span several months afterward. Early optical spectra exhibit broad, Type II-like hydrogen Balmer profiles that subside rapidly and are replaced by Type Ib-like He-rich features on a timescale of one week. High-cadence monitoring of this transition suggests absorption attributable to a high-velocity ({approx}> 12, 000 km s{sup -1}) H-rich shell, which is likely present in many Type Ib events. Radio observations imply a shock velocity of v Almost-Equal-To 0.13 c and a progenitor star average mass-loss rate of M-dot {approx}1.4 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -5} M{sub sun} yr{sup -1} (assuming wind velocity v{sub w} = 10{sup 3} km s{sup -1}). This is consistent with independent constraints from deep X-ray observations with Swift-XRT and Chandra. Overall, the multi-wavelength properties of SN 2011ei are consistent with the explosion of a lower-mass (3-4 M{sub Sun }), compact (R{sub *} {approx}< 1 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 11} cm), He-core star. The star retained a thin hydrogen envelope at the time of explosion, and was embedded in an inhomogeneous circumstellar wind suggestive of modest episodic mass loss. We conclude that SN 2011ei's rapid spectral metamorphosis is indicative of time-dependent classifications that bias estimates of the relative explosion rates for Type IIb and Ib objects, and that important information about a progenitor star's evolutionary state and mass loss immediately prior to SN explosion can be inferred from timely multi-wavelength observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Determination of Lidar Ratio for Major Aerosol Types over Western North Pacific Based on Long-Term MPLNET Data

East Asia is the most complex region in the world for aerosol studies, as it encounters a lot of varieties of aerosols, and aerosol classification can be a challenge in this region. In the present study, we focused on the relationship between aerosol types and aerosol optical properties. We analyzed the long-term (2005–2012) data of vertical profiles of aerosol extinction coefficients, lidar ratio (Sp), and other aerosol optical properties obtained from a NASA Micro-Pulse Lidar Network and Aerosol Robotic Network site in northern Taiwan, which frequently receives Asian continental outflows. Based on aerosol extinction vertical profiles, the profiles were classified into two types: type 1 (single-layer structure) and type 2 (two-layer structure). Fall season (October–November) was the prevailing season for the Type 1, whereas type 2 mainly happened in spring (March–April). In type 1, air masses normally originated from three regional sectors, i.e., Asia continental (AC), Pacific Ocean (PO), and Southeast Asia (SA). The mean Sp values were 39 ± 17 sr, 30 ± 12 sr, and 38 ± 18 sr for the AC, PO, and SA sectors, respectively. The Sp results suggested that aerosols from the AC sector contained dust and anthropogenic particles, and aerosols from the PO sector were most likely sea salts. We further combined the EPA dust event database and backward trajectory analysis for type 2. Results showed that Sp was 41 ± 14 sr and 53 ± 21 sr for dust storm and biomass-burning events, respectively. The Sp for biomass-burning events in type 2 showed two peaks patterns. The first peak occurred within range of 30–50 sr corresponding to urban pollutant, and the second peak occurred within range of 60–80 sr in relation to biomass burning. Finally, our study summarized the Sp values for four major aerosol types over northern Taiwan, viz., urban (42 ± 18 sr), dust (34 ± 6 sr), biomass-burning (69 ± 12 sr), and oceanic (30 ± 12 sr). Our findings provide useful references for aerosol classification and air pollution identification over the western North Pacific.

Sheng-Hsiang Wang↗

{sup 18}F-Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography Can Quantify and Predict Esophageal Injury During Radiation Therapy

Purpose: We sought to investigate the ability of mid-treatment {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (PET) studies to objectively and spatially quantify esophageal injury in vivo from radiation therapy for non-small cell lung cancer. Methods and Materials: This retrospective study was approved by the local institutional review board, with written informed consent obtained before enrollment. We normalized {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose PET uptake to each patient's low-irradiated region (<5 Gy) of the esophagus, as a radiation response measure. Spatially localized metrics of normalized uptake (normalized standard uptake value [nSUV]) were derived for 79 patients undergoing concurrent chemoradiation therapy for non-small cell lung cancer. We used nSUV metrics to classify esophagitis grade at the time of the PET study, as well as maximum severity by treatment completion, according to National Cancer Institute Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, using multivariate least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression and repeated 3-fold cross validation (training, validation, and test folds). This 3-fold cross-validation LASSO model procedure was used to predict toxicity progression from 43 asymptomatic patients during the PET study. Dose-volume metrics were also tested in both the multivariate classification and the symptom progression prediction analyses. Classification performance was quantified with the area under the curve (AUC) from receiver operating characteristic analysis on the test set from the 3-fold analyses. Results: Statistical analysis showed increasing nSUV is related to esophagitis severity. Axial-averaged maximum nSUV for 1 esophageal slice and esophageal length with at least 40% of axial-averaged nSUV both had AUCs of 0.85 for classifying grade 2 or higher esophagitis at the time of the PET study and AUCs of 0.91 and 0.92, respectively, for maximum grade 2 or higher by treatment completion. Symptom progression was predicted with an AUC of 0.75. Dose metrics performed poorly at classifying esophagitis (AUC of 0.52, grade 2 or higher mid treatment) or predicting symptom progression (AUC of 0.67). Conclusions: Normalized uptake can objectively, locally, and noninvasively quantify esophagitis during radiation therapy and predict eventual symptoms from asymptomatic patients. Normalized uptake may provide patient-specific dose-response information not discernible from dose.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Flood Monitoring and Crop Damage Assessment

In recent years, the occurrence and impact of inland and coastal flood events have become more frequent and damaging, especially within agricultural fields, due to the global climate change and consistent sea level rise. Monitoring and measuring the magnitude of flood events in a timely manner and assessing the subsequent crop damages accurately are precursors in minimizing detrimental consequences that could potentially lead to a global food security crisis. Traditional gauge-based measurements with sophisticated hydrological models are capable of monitoring flood events precisely but limited within the smaller spatial extent, time-consuming, and costly. In recent decades, advancement in airborne- and satellite-based remote sensing technologies offering products at a daily global spatial extent with various spectral resolution helps address the shortcomings of the traditional in situ approaches in flood monitoring. Furthermore, the methods such as classification and band ratioing using remote sensing products are simple and effective in assessing flood-induced agricultural damages. The combination of remote sensing products and geographic information systems along with the current development in web mapping, users now can get near real-time flood monitoring and crop damage assessments, albeit dependent upon the quality of available data. A case study to quantify the impact of the 2011 Missouri Mississippi River flooding on the surrounding cornfield was performed through a regression model. The model was trained using historical daily NDVI and corn yield across Nebraska and Missouri, and the overall accuracy in estimating corn yield was about 90%. The method implemented in this localized case study could be extended at a larger geographical scale.

Flood monitoring↗