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At least 523 records · Page 29

Determining The Nanoflare Heating Frequency of an X-Ray Bright Point Observed by MaGIXS

Nanoflares are thought to be one of the prime candidates that can heat the solar corona to its multi-million kelvin temperature. Individual nanoflares are difficult to detect with the present generation instruments, however their presence can be inferred by comparing simulated nanoflare-heated plasma emissions with the observed emission. Using HYDRAD coronal loop simulations, we model the emission from an X-ray bright point (XBP) observed by the Marshall Grazing Incidence X-ray Spectrometer (MaGIXS), along with nearest-available observations from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) onboard Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and X-Ray Telescope (XRT) onboard Hinode observatory. The length and magnetic field strength of the coronal loops are derived from the linear-force-free extrapolation of the observed photospheric magnetogram by Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard SDO. Each loop is assumed to be heated by random nanoflares, whose magnitude and frequency are determined by the loop length and magnetic field strength. The simulation results are then compared and matched against the measured intensity from AIA, XRT, and MaGIXS. Our model results indicate the observed emissions from the XBP under study could be well matched by a distribution of nanoflares with average delay times 1500 s to 3000 s, which suggest that the heating is dominated by high-frequency events. Further, we demonstrate the high sensitivity of MaGIXS and XRT to diagnose the heating frequency using this method, while AIA passbands are found to be the least sensitive.

coronal heating↗

Computational Assessment of the Opening Mode Facesheet-to-Core Fracture Toughness of a Thin-Gage Facesheet Sandwich Structure

The single-cantilevered beam test (SCB) is currently being considered for standardization for measuring the opening mode fracture toughness of sandwich structures subjected to facesheet-to-core separation. At present, the Area method is considered the benchmark method for determining energy required to propagate the crack. This method is problematic since it requires periodic unloading and cannot be evaluated instantaneously. Therefore, a method is needed to accurately and instantaneously calculate opening mode fracture toughness. In previous work, SCB tests with thin-gauge facesheets were performed to compare the J-integral approach to data reduction methods including the Modified Beam Theory (MBT) and the Area method. Large deviations (over 10%) in the calculated fracture toughness were observed between the J-integral and MBT for large displacements. In this study, a simulated SCB experiment using a virtual crackclosure technique was performed to assess the previously observed discrepancies. The predicted load displacement response, the predicted angle at the load application point, and the predicted crack growth results are in good agreement (within 5%) with the corresponding experimental data. Using the predicted load and angles, the predicted J-integral is in good agreement (within 10%) with the experimentally obtained solution. Using the MBT approach, the previously observed deviations in the fracture toughness were determined to be associated with the empirical extrapolation procedure to estimate the crack-root rotation correction from nonlinear compliance curves. The nonlinear compliance is determined to be associated with large displacement effects observed within the predicted and experimental results.

Sandwich Composite↗

Numerical Predictions of Sonic Boom Signatures for a Straight Line Segmented Leading Edge Model

A sonic boom wind tunnel test was conducted on a straight-line segmented leading edge (SLSLE) model in the NASA Langley 4- by 4- Foot Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel (UPWT). The purpose of the test was to determine whether accurate sonic boom measurements could be obtained while continuously moving the SLSLE model past a conical pressure probe. Sonic boom signatures were also obtained using the conventional move-pause data acquisition method for comparison. The continuous data acquisition approach allows for accurate signatures approximately 15 times faster than a move-pause technique. These successful results provide an incentive for future testing with greatly increased efficiency using the continuous model translation technique with the single probe to measure sonic boom signatures. Two widely used NASA codes, USM3D (Navier-Stokes) and CART3D-AERO (Euler, adjoint-based adaptive mesh), were used to compute off-body sonic boom pressure signatures of the SLSLE model at several different altitudes below the model at Mach 2.0. The computed pressure signatures compared well with wind tunnel data. The effect of the different altitude for signature extraction was evaluated by extrapolating the near field signatures to the ground and comparing pressure signatures and sonic boom loudness levels.

Elmiligui, Alaa A.↗

The fatigue damage behavior of a single crystal superalloy

The uniaxial fatigue behavior of a single crystal superalloy, PWA 1480, is described. Both monotonic tensile and constant amplitude fatigue tests were conducted at room temperature, in an effort to assess the applicability of polycrystalline-based fatigue life prediction methods to a single crystal superalloy. The observed constant amplitude behavior correlated best using a stress-based life criterion. Nearly all specimens failed at surface or slightly subsurface microporosity; this is thought to be responsible for the unusually large amount of scatter in the test results. An additional term is developed in the stress-life equation for the purpose of accounting for the effect of microporosity on fatigue life. The form chosen is a function of the effective area of the failure-producing microporosity projected on a plane perpendicular to the loading axis, as well as the applied stress. This additional term correlated the data to within factors of two on life. Although speculative, extrapolation of the microporosity relation to zero micropore area indicates that approximately an order of magnitude improvement in fatigue life should result.

Mcgaw, Michael A.↗

Nanoflare Heating Frequency of an X-Ray Bright Point Observed By MaGIXS

Nanoflares are thought to be one of the prime candidates that can heat the solar corona to its multimillion kelvin temperature. Individual nanoflares are difficult to detect with the present generation instruments, however their presence can be inferred by comparing simulated nanoflare-heated plasma emissions with the observed emission. Using HYDRAD coronal loop simulations, we model the emission from an X-ray bright point observed by the Marshall Grazing Incidence X-ray Spectrometer (MaGIXS), along with concurrent observations from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) onboard Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and X-Ray Telescope (XRT) onboard Hinode observatory. The length and magnetic field strength of the coronal loops are derived from the potential field extrapolation of the observed photospheric magnetogram by Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard SDO. Each loop is assumed to be heated by random nanoflares, whose magnitude and frequency are determined by the loop length and magnetic field strength. The simulation results are then compared and matched against the measured intensity from AIA, XRT, and MaGIXS. Our model results indicate the loop morphology and emissions from the XBP under study could be well matched by a distribution of nanoflares with average delay times 400 s to 800 s, which strongly suggest that the heating is dominated by high-frequency events. Further, we demonstrate the high sensitivity of MaGIXS and XRT to diagnose the heating frequency using this method, while AIA passbands are found to be the least sensitive.

coronal heating↗

Local wall heat flux/temperature meter for convective flow and method of utilizing same

According to one embodiment of the invention, a method includes providing a conduit having a fluid flowing therethrough, disposing a plurality of temperature measurement devices inside a wall of the conduit, positioning at least some of the temperature measurement devices proximate an inside surface of the wall of the conduit, positioning at least some of the temperature measurement devices at different radial positions at the same circumferential location within the wall, measuring a plurality of temperatures of the wall with respective ones of the temperature measurement devices to obtain a three-dimensional temperature topology of the wall, determining the temperature dependent thermal conductivity of the conduit, and determining a multi-dimensional thermal characteristic of the inside surface of the wall of the conduit based on extrapolation of the three-dimensional temperature topology and the temperature dependent thermal conductivities.

Boyd, Ronald D.↗

Aeolian Sand Transport in the Planetary Context: Respective Roles of Aerodynamic and Bed-Dilatancy Thresholds

The traditional view of aeolian sand transport generally estimates flux from the perspective of aerodynamic forces creating the airborne grain population, although it has been recognized that "reptation" causes a significant part of the total airborne flux; reptation involves both ballistic injection of grains into the air stream by the impact of saltating grains as well as the "nudging" of surface grains into a creeping motion. Whilst aerodynamic forces may initiate sand motion, it is proposed here that within a fully-matured grain cloud, flux is actually governed by two thresholds: an aerodynamic threshold, and a bed-dilatancy threshold. It is the latter which controls the reptation population, and its significance increases proportionally with transport energy. Because we only have experience with terrestrial sand transport, extrapolations of aeolian theory to Mars and Venus have adjusted only the aerodynamic factor, taking gravitational forces and atmospheric density as the prime variables in the aerodynamic equations, but neglecting reptation. The basis for our perspective on the importance of reptation and bed dilatancy is a set of experiments that were designed to simulate sand transport across the surface of a martian dune. Using a modified sporting crossbow in which a sand-impelling sabot replaced the bolt-firing mechanism, individual grains of sand were fired at loose sand targets with glancing angles typical of saltation impact; grains were projected at about 80 m/s to simulate velocities commensurate with those predicted for extreme martian aeolian conditions. The sabot impelling method permitted study of individual impacts without the masking effect of bed mobilization encountered in wind-tunnel studies. At these martian impact velocities, grains produced small craters formed by the ejection of several hundred grains from the bed. Unexpectedly, the craters were not elongated, despite glancing impact; the craters were very close to circular in planform. High-speed photography showed them to grow in both diameter and depth after the impactor had ricochetted from the crater site. The delayed response of the bed was "explosive" in nature, and created a miniature ejecta curtain spreading upward and outward for many centimeters for impact of 100-300 micron-diameter grains into similar material. Elastic energy deposited in the bed by the impacting grain creates a subsurface stress regime or "quasi-Boussinesq" compression field. Elastic recovery of the bed occurs by dilatancy; shear stresses suddenly convert the grains from closed to open packing, and grains are consequently able to eject themselves forcefully from the impact site. Random jostling of the grains causes radial homogenization of stress vectors and a resulting circular crater. There is a great temptation to draw parallels with cratering produced by meteorite impacts, but a rigorous search for common modelling ground between the two phenomena has not been conducted at this time. For every impact of an aerodynamically energized grain, there are several hundred grains ejected into the wind for the high-energy transport that might occur on Mars. Many of these grains will themselves become subject to the boundary layer's aerodynamic lift forces (their motion will not immediately die and add to the creep population), and these grains will become indistinguishable from those lifted entirely by aerodynamic forces. As each grain impacts the bed, it will eject even more grains into the flow. A cascading effect will take place, but because it must be finite in its growth, damping will occur as the number of grains set in motion causes mid-air collisions that prevent much of the impact energy from reaching the surface of the bed -thus creating a dynamic equilibrium in a high-density saltation cloud. It is apparent that for a given impact energy, the stress field permits a smaller volume of grains to convert to open packing as the size of the bed grains increases, or as the energy of the "percussive" grain decreases (by decrease in velocity or mass). Thus, the mass of the "repercussive" grain population that is ejected from the impact site becomes a function of the scale of the stress field in relation to the scale of the bed material (self-similarity being applicable if both bed size and energy are simultaneously adjusted). In other words, in a very high energy aeolian system where an aerodynamically raised grain can ballistically raise many more grains, the amount of material lifted into the wind becomes largely a function of a dilatancy threshold. If this threshold is exceeded, grains are repercussively injected into the saltation cloud. The "dilatancy threshold" may be defined in terms of the saltation percussive force required to convert the bed, through elastic response, from a closed to an open packing system. If open packing cannot be created, the grains cannot escape from the impact site, even though the elastic deformation and percussive force may be able to reorganize the grains with respect to one another. As the crossbow experiments showed, for an ever-increasing bed grain size, a point is reached when no material can be moved because the energy of the percussive grain is insufficient to dilate the relatively coarse bed. Although this seems to be stating the obvious -- that too little energy will not cause the bed to splash -- the consequences of exceeding the "splash threshold" by dilatancy are not so obvious for high-energy aeolian transport. It is noted that the force required to elastically dilate the bed has to overcome Coulombic grain attractions such as dipole-dipole coupling, dielectric, monopole, contact-induced dipole attractions, van der Waals forces, molecular monolayer capillary forces, as well as the mechanical interlocking frictional resistance of the grains. On Mars, it is predicted that the dilatancy threshold may be the prime control of grain flux. Additional information is contained in the original.

Marshall, J. R.↗

Investigation by Schlieren Technique of Methods of Fixing Fully Turbulent Flow on Models at Supersonic Speeds

An investigation has been made of the effectiveness of two-dimensional wire and three-dimensional grandular-type roughnesses for fixing transition on a 27 deg cone at a free-stream Mach number of 2.20. One height of each type of roughness was investigated over a free-stream Reynolds number per foot range of about 1.0 x 10 (exp 6) to 7.0 x 10 (exp 6). The tests were made at an angle of attack of 0 deg and with essentially zero heat transfer. The results indicate that, within the Reynolds number per foot range investigated, both two-dimensional wire and three-dimensional granular types of roughness caused large forward movements of transition at constant Reynolds number per foot; however, the forward movement with increase in Reynolds number per foot was very slow for the two-dimensional wire roughness and transition never reached the roughness location as it did with the three-dimensional granular roughness. An extrapolated value of the roughness Reynolds number (based on roughness height and flow conditions at the outer edge of the roughness) for the first appearance of forward movement from the smooth-cone case for the three-dimensional granular roughness was in good agreement with the value of about 600 for the first appearance of turbulent bursts obtained on a similar cone by the hot-wire technique. The range of values of roughness Reynolds number for which a fully turbulent boundary layer existed in the vicinity of the roughness element was about 4,500 to 6,500.

Jackson, Mary W.↗

Numerical solutions of the Navier-Stokes equations for the supersonic laminar flow over a two-dimensional compression corner

Numerical solutions have been obtained for the supersonic, laminar flow over a two-dimensional compression corner. These solutions were obtained as steady-state solutions to the unsteady Navier-Stokes equations using the finite difference method of Brailovskaya, which has second-order accuracy in the spatial coordinates. Good agreement was obtained between the computed results and wall pressure distributions measured experimentally for Mach numbers of 4 and 6.06, and respective Reynolds numbers, based on free-stream conditions and the distance from the leading edge to the corner. In those calculations, as well as in others, sufficient resolution was obtained to show the streamline pattern in the separation bubble. Upstream boundary conditions to the compression corner flow were provided by numerically solving the unsteady Navier-Stokes equations for the flat plate flow field, beginning at the leading edge. The compression corner flow field was enclosed by a computational boundary with the unknown boundary conditions supplied by extrapolation from internally computed points.

Carter, J. E.↗

Tidal estimation in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, 3 deg x 3 deg solution

An estimation technique was developed to extrapolate tidal amplitudes and phases over entire ocean basins using existing gauge data and the altimetric measurements provided by satellite oceanography. The technique was previously tested. Some results obtained by using a 3 deg by 3 deg grid are presented. The functions used in the interpolation are the eigenfunctions of the velocity (Proudman functions) which are computed numerically from a knowledge of the basin's bottom topography, the horizontal plan form and the necessary boundary conditions. These functions are characteristic of the particular basin. The gravitational normal modes of the basin are computed as part of the investigation; they are used to obtain the theoretical forced solutions for the tidal constituents. The latter can provide the simulated data for the testing of the method and serve as a guide in choosing the most energetic functions for the interpolation.

Sanchez, Braulio V.↗

Application of AWE Along with a Combined FEM/MoM Technique to Compute RCS of a Cavity-Backed Aperture in an Infinite Ground Plane Over a Frequency Range

A hybrid Finite Element Method (FEM)/Method of Moments (MoM) technique in conjunction with the Asymptotic Waveform Evaluation (AWE) technique is applied to obtain radar cross section (RCS) of a cavity-backed aperture in an infinite ground plane over a frequency range. The hybrid FEM/MoM technique when applied to the cavity-backed aperture results in an integro-differential equation with electric field as the unknown variable, the electric field obtained from the solution of the integro-differential equation is expanded in Taylor series. The coefficients of the Taylor series are obtained using the frequency derivatives of the integro-differential equation formed by the hybrid FEM/MoM technique. The series is then matched via the Pade approximation to a rational polynomial, which can be used to extrapolate the electric field over a frequency range. The RCS of the cavity-backed aperture is calculated using the electric field at different frequencies. Numerical results for a rectangular cavity, a circular cavity, and a material filled cavity are presented over a frequency range. Good agreement between AWE and the exact solution over the frequency range is obtained.

Reddy, C.J.↗

Body water compartments during bed rest: Evaluation of analytical methods

Nine healthy young men were studied to determine the reproducibility and interchangeability of the use of radio-iodinated human serum albumin and Evans Blue dye for estimating plasma volume, sodium bromide for extracellular fluid volume, and deuterium oxide for total body water volume. All subjects were tested in a semibasal condition and allowed to rest for at least 30 min. after arriving at the laboratory. The results indicate that there was uniform distribution of I131 and Evans Blue dye 10 min. after injection and of NaBr and D2O 3 hours after oral ingestion; the buildup of residual tracer did not interfere appreciably with the measurement of either or Evans Blue spaces when they are administered at equal intervals, and the buildup of background tracer after ingestion of NaBr and D2O once per week for three consecutive weeks did not affect the accuracy of the measurement. It was found that I131 and Evans Blue may be used interchangeably for estimating plasma volume; for estimating bromide and D2O spaces, one 3-hour equilibrium blood sample gives results similar to the extrapolation of multiple samples.

Young, H. L.↗

Time accurate application of the MacCormack 2-4 scheme on massively parallel computers

Many recent computational efforts in turbulence and acoustics research have used higher order numerical algorithms. One popular method has been the explicit MacCormack 2-4 scheme. The MacCormack 2-4 scheme is second order accurate in time and fourth order accurate in space, and is stable for CFL's below 2/3. Current research has shown that the method can give accurate results but does exhibit significant Gibbs phenomena at sharp discontinuities. The impact of adding Jameson type second, third, and fourth order artificial viscosity was examined here. Category 2 problems, the nonlinear traveling wave and the Riemann problem, were computed using a CFL number of 0.25. This research has found that dispersion errors can be significantly reduced or nearly eliminated by using a combination of second and third order terms in the damping. Use of second and fourth order terms reduced the magnitude of dispersion errors but not as effectively as the second and third order combination. The program was coded using Thinking Machine's CM Fortran, a variant of Fortran 90/High Performance Fortran, and was executed on a 2K CM-200. Simple extrapolation boundary conditions were used for both problems.

Hudson, Dale A.↗

Bithermal Low-Cycle Fatigue Evaluation of Automotive Exhaust System Alloy SS409

This investigation provides, for the first time, cyclic strainrange-controlled, thermomechanical fatigue results for the ferritic stainless steel alloy SS409. The alloy has seen extensive application for automotive exhaust system components. The data were generated to calibrate the Total Strain Version of the Strainrange Partitioning (TS-SRP) method for eventual application to the design and durability assessment of automotive exhaust systems. The thermomechanical cyclic lifetime and cyclic stress-strain constitutive behavior for alloy SS409 were measured using bithermal tests cycling between isothermal extremes of 400 and 800 C. Lives ranged up to 10,000 cycles to failure with hold-times of 0.33 to 2.0 minutes. The bithermal fatigue behavior is compared to isothermal, strain-controlled fatigue behavior at both 400 and 800 C. Thermomechanical cycling was found to have a profound detrimental influence on the fatigue failure resistance of SS409 compared to isothermal cycling. Supplementary bithermal cyclic stress-strain constitutive tests with hold-times ranging from 40 seconds up to 1.5 hours were conducted to calibrate the TS-SRP equation for extrapolation to longer lifetime predictions. Observed thermomechanical (bithermal) fatigue lives correlated well with lives calculated using the calibrated TS-SRP equations: 70% of the bithermal fatigue data fall within a factor of 1.2 of calculated life; 85% within a factor of 1.4; and 100% within a factor of 1.8.

Lu, Gui-Ying↗

Assessment of Crew Time for Maintenance and Repairs Activities for Lunar Surface Missions

NASA is currently evaluating different methods to predict how much time crewmembers will spend conducting repair and maintenance activities on future space missions. As mission scope and spacecraft architectures change, it will be necessary to understand how crew repair and maintenance timelines are impacted by mission operations and technology changes. Past work has been done using historical ISS data to accurately predict crew habitation and operation timelines, resulting in the development of NASA’s Exploration Crew Time Model (ECTM). However, understanding crew maintenance and repair requirements has posed a unique challenge due to the complexity of available datasets, the probabilistic nature of sub-system failures, and the impacts of reliability growth on failure rates. This paper presents a methodology to collect and condition empirical repair and maintenance time data from available data sets, to extrapolate from that data to estimate projected maintenance and repair times for a lunar Surface Habitat, and to assess how uncertainty in repair time could impact utilization time on the lunar surface. NASA International Space Station (ISS) maintenance and crew time data are logged into two central databases, the Maintenance Data Collection (MDC) and the Operations Planning Timeline Integration System (OPTimIS) respectively. Separately, each of these two datasets capture only portions of the complete set of data required to generate an accurate assessment of crew time spent on maintenance activities at a sub-system level. MDC provides a detailed catalog of failure events and an overview of the failure’s required maintenance and OPTimIS provides a description of crew activities and crew time durations dedicated to maintenance. To create a more useful crew time estimate for maintenance timelines, the authors developed a methodology to capture relevant data from each set and combine and utilize that data by linking crew time requirements to specific components. The authors compare the failure logs in the MDC to crew activity logs pulled from OPTimIS and then process the data to estimate required repair times for each failure event. Data is also classified by the outcome of each repair event, whether the failed component was replaced or whether it was repaired in place. The entire maintenance activity dataset is then categorized based on the class of failed component to allow for a statistically significant sample size for each class and to provide accurate crew time estimates for any components lacking relevant data. This resultant component repair time data can be used in the future to generate Mean Time To Repair (MTTR) estimates and confidence intervals for each class of component based on a probabilistic distribution of documented maintenance events. These improved MTTR values can then be applied to candidate element sub-system architectures, along with component Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) data to generate distributions for potential required system crew repair time estimates for a given mission. Repair time distributions can then be used to develop more accurate crew schedules and to assess potential available utilization time.

Crew Time↗

Low cost space power generation

The success of this study has given a method of fabricating durable copolymer films without size limitations. Previously, only compression molded samples were durable enough to generate electrical energy. The strengthened specimens are very long lived materials. The lifetime was enhanced at least a factor of 1,300 in full pyroelectric conversion cycle experiments compared with extruded, non-strengthened film. The new techniques proved so successful that the lifetime of the resultant copolymer samples was not fully characterized. The lifetime of these new materials is so long that accelerated tests were devised to probe their durability. After a total of more than 67 million high voltage electrical cycles at 100 C, the electrical properties of a copolymer sample remained stable. The test was terminated without any detectable degradation to allow for other experiments. One must be cautious in extrapolating to power cycle performance, but 67 million electrical cycles correspond to 2 years of pyroelectric cycling at 1 Hz. In another series of experiments at reduced temperature and electrical stress, a specimen survived over one-third of a billion electrical cycles during nearly three months of continuous testing. The radiation-limited lifetimes of the copolymer were shown to range from several years to millions of years for most earth orbits. Thus, the pyroelectric copolymer has become a strong candidate for serious consideration for future spacecraft power supplies.

Olsen, Randall B.↗

Summary of the Fourth AIAA CFD Drag Prediction Workshop

Results from the Fourth AIAA Drag Prediction Workshop (DPW-IV) are summarized. The workshop focused on the prediction of both absolute and differential drag levels for wing-body and wing-body-horizontal-tail configurations that are representative of transonic transport air- craft. Numerical calculations are performed using industry-relevant test cases that include lift- specific flight conditions, trimmed drag polars, downwash variations, dragrises and Reynolds- number effects. Drag, lift and pitching moment predictions from numerous Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes computational fluid dynamics methods are presented. Solutions are performed on structured, unstructured and hybrid grid systems. The structured-grid sets include point- matched multi-block meshes and over-set grid systems. The unstructured and hybrid grid sets are comprised of tetrahedral, pyramid, prismatic, and hexahedral elements. Effort is made to provide a high-quality and parametrically consistent family of grids for each grid type about each configuration under study. The wing-body-horizontal families are comprised of a coarse, medium and fine grid; an optional extra-fine grid augments several of the grid families. These mesh sequences are utilized to determine asymptotic grid-convergence characteristics of the solution sets, and to estimate grid-converged absolute drag levels of the wing-body-horizontal configuration using Richardson extrapolation.

Vassberg, John C.↗

The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH4/yr (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH4/yr or ∼ 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 Tg CH4/yr or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is 29 Tg CH4/yr larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009), and 24 Tg CH4/yr larger than the one reported in the previous budget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4/yr, range 594–881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 65 % of the global budget, < 30° N) compared to mid-latitudes (∼ 30 %, 30–60° N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90° N). The most important source of uncertainty in the methane budget is attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and other inland waters. Some of our global source estimates are smaller than those in previously published budgets (Saunois et al., 2016; Kirschke et al., 2013). In particular wetland emissions are about 35 Tg CH4/yr lower due to improved partition wetlands and other inland waters. Emissions from geological sources and wild animals are also found to be smaller by 7 Tg CH4/yr by 8 Tg CH4/yr, respectively. However, the overall discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates has been reduced by only 5 % compared to Saunois et al. (2016), due to a higher estimate of emissions from inland waters, highlighting the need for more detailed research on emissions factors. Priorities for improving the methane budget include (i) a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting methane based on a robust classification of different types of emitting habitats; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of methane observations at local scales (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements) and urban-scale monitoring to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scales (surface networks and satellites) to constrain atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) development of a 3D variational inversion system using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane to improve source partitioning.

methane budget↗