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DOE OSTI2022

Normalizing flows for likelihood-free inference with fusion simulations

Fluid-based scrape-off layer transport codes, such as UEDGE, are heavily utilized in tokamak analysis and design, but typically require user-specified anomalous transport coefficients to match experiments. Determining the uniqueness of these parameters and the uncertainties in them to match experiments can provide valuable insights to fusion scientists. Here, we leverage recent work in the area of likelihood-free inference (‘simulation-based inference’) to train a neural network, which enables accurate statistical inference of the anomalous transport coefficients given experimental plasma profile input. UEDGE is treated as a black-box simulator and runs multiple times with anomalous transport coefficients sampled from priors, and the neural network is trained on these simulations to emulate the posterior. The neural network is trained as a normalizing flow model for density estimation, allowing it to accurately represent complicated, high-dimensional distribution functions. With a fixed simulation budget, we compare a single-round procedure to a multi-round approach that guides the training simulations toward a specific target observation. Finally, we discuss the future possibilities for use of amortized models, which train on a wide range of simulations and enable fast statistical inference for results during experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-Fidelity Analysis of EV Integration on Real Utility Feeders in Colorado

Residential electric vehicle (EV) charging has the potential to alter long-held assumptions on load characteristics impacting distribution grid planning, operations, and design standards. This study identifies analysis and control methods to increase the affordability of residential EV charging both for Xcel Energy and their customers. The project also provides solutions for more reliable grid interconnection that can support a reliable utility business model prepared for increasing EV charging load in the coming years. For this project, we referenced Level 2 alternating current (AC) onboard charging profiles for various vehicle models and high-fidelity charging data collected at the experimental setup established at the EV Research Infrastructure Laboratory at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Next, we developed EV adoption models for 2030 and 2040 for the Boulder and Aurora regions in Colorado. Moreover, we evaluated different smart charging control algorithms and compared their performance. We developed time-of-use (TOU)-based and grid-aware active EV charging control methods and integrated them within the study region to understand field impacts. Diving deeper, we selected 10 feeders in Boulder and Aurora for high-fidelity grid modeling down to the house level. We executed detailed grid analysis comparing the smart charge management (SCM) algorithms we developed. Finally, we created a novel tool, Electric Vehicle Infrastructure--Distribution System Integration Tool (EVI-DiST), to integrate all the approaches in a single software environment to provide easy integration, fast simulation, and detailed evaluation capability for utility engineers and other stakeholders.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulation of solvent-dependent cellulose nanofiber interactions

Associations between cellulose are important both in biofuel production and in the use of cellulose for biomaterials. Cellulose nanofibers (CNFs) are sustainable, strong, light-weight alternatives to traditional materials in manufacturing, but are challenging to obtain due to irreversible aggregation in solution during preparative fibrillation. Therefore, it is imperative to understand the underlying factors driving aggregation with a view to designing solvents that can effectively compete with interfiber interactions, hence reducing aggregation. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation at atomic detail can provide useful information on local interactions. However, the length and timescales accessible are too short to fully capture association processes. Here, we provide a method for accessing the longer length and timescales required using coarse-grained (CG) MD simulations with a MARTINI force field to calculate the interaction behavior of CNFs in three selected solvents: NaOH-urea-water, acetone, and neat water. The CG results are consistent with our prior all-atom MD and with previous experimental results. While acetone is found not to be an effective solvent, urea and ionic moieties in NaOH-urea-water not only solvate the fibrils but also improve the confinement of water molecules around them as shown by the solvent residence times and mean-square displacements. Overall, the presence of urea and ions reduces the likelihood of aggregation in multi-CNF systems relative to neat water irrespective of whether the hydrophobic or hydrophilic CNF surfaces are interacting. In conclusion, the CG method shows clear promise for selecting potential high-performance solvents for experimental prioritization in bioenergy and biomaterials research in a relatively fast manner as well as for understanding the aggregation and rheological behavior of CNF-solvent systems.

aggregation↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparing emulation methods for a high‐resolution storm surge model

Abstract Realistic simulations of complex systems are fundamental for climate and environmental studies. Large computer systems are often not sufficient to run sophisticated computational models for large numbers of different input settings. Statistical surrogate models, or emulators, are key tools enabling fast exploration of the simulator input space. Gaussian processes have become standard for computer simulator emulation. However, they require careful implementation to scale appropriately, motivating alternative methods more recently introduced. We present a comparison study of surrogates of the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) simulator—the simulator of choice for government agencies—using four emulation approaches: BASS; BART; SEPIA; and RobustGaSP. SEPIA and RobustGaSP use Gaussian processes, BASS implements adaptive splines, and BART is based on ensembles of regression trees. We describe the four models and compare them in terms of computation time and predictive metrics. These surrogates use proven and distinct methodologies, are available through accessible software, and quantify prediction uncertainty. Our data cover millions of response values. We find that SEPIA and RobustGaSP provide exceptional predictive power, but cannot scale to emulate experiments as large as the one considered in this paper as effectively as BASS and BART.

Hutchings, Grant↗

DOE OSTI2020

Field Programmable Gate Arrays for Enhancing the Speed and Energy Efficiency of Quantum Dynamics Simulations

We present the first application of field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) as new, customizable hardware architectures for carrying out fast and energy-efficient quantum dynamics simulations of large chemical/material systems. Instead of tailoring the software to fixed hardware, which is the typical case for writing quantum chemistry code for central processing units (CPUs) and graphics processing units (GPUs), FPGAs allow us to directly customize the underlying hardware (even at the level of specific electrical signals in the circuit) to give a truly optimized computational performance for quantum dynamics calculations. By offloading the most intensive and repetitive calculations onto an FPGA, we show that the computational performance of our real-time electron dynamics calculations can even exceed that of optimized commercial mathematical libraries running on high-performance GPUs. In addition to this impressive computational speedup, we show that FPGAs are immensely energy-efficient and consume 4 times less energy than modern GPU or CPU architectures. These energy savings are a practical and important metric for supercomputing centers (many of which exceed over $1 million in power costs alone), as exascale computing capabilities become more widespread and commonplace. Taken together, the implementation techniques and performance metrics of our study demonstrate that FPGAs could play a promising role in upcoming quantum chemistry and materials science applications, particularly for the acceleration and energy-efficient execution of quantum dynamics calculations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Safe Reinforcement Learning for Emergency Load Shedding of Power Systems

The paradigm shift in the electric power grid necessitates a revisit of existing control methods to ensure the grid’s security and resilience. In particular, the increased uncertainties and rapidly changing operational conditions in power systems have revealed outstanding issues in terms of either speed, adaptiveness, or scalability of the existing control methods for power systems. On the other hand, the availability of massive real-time data can provide a clearer picture of what is happening in the grid. Recently, deep reinforcement learning (RL) has been regarded and adopted as a promising approach leveraging massive data for fast and adaptive grid control. However, like most existing machine learning (ML)- based control techniques, RL control usually cannot guarantee the safety of the power systems. In this paper, we introduce a novel method for safe RL-based load shedding of power systems that can enhance the safe voltage recovery of the electric power grid after experiencing faults. Numerical simulation on the IEEE 39-bus testcase is performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed safe RL emergency control, as well as its adaptive capability to faults not seen in the training.

reinforcement learning, emergency control, power g↗

DOE OSTI2020

Distinctive Signals in 1-min Observations of Overshooting Tops and Lightning Activity in a Severe Supercell Thunderstorm

This work examines a severe weather event that took place over central Argentina on December 11, 2018. The evolution of the storm from its initiation, rapid organization into a supercell, and eventual decay was analyzed with high-temporal resolution observations. This work provides insight into the spatio-temporal co-evolution of storm kinematics (updraft area and lifespan), cloud-top cooling rates, and lightning production that led to severe weather. The analyzed storm presented two convective periods with associated severe weather. An overall decrease in cloud-top local minima IR brightness temperature (MinIR10.3), increase in overshooting top area, and lightning jump (LJ) preceded both periods. LJs provided the highest lead time to the occurrence of severe weather, with the ground-based lightning networks providing the maximum warning time of around 30 min. Lightning flash counts from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) were underestimated when compared to detections from ground-based lightning networks. Among the possible reasons for GLM’s lower detection efficiency were an optically dense medium located above lightning sources and the occurrence of flashes smaller than GLM’s footprint. The minimum MinIR provided the shorter warning time to severe weather occurrence. However, secondary minima in MinIR10.3 that preceded the absolute minima improved this warning time by more than 10 min. Furthermore, trends in MinIR10.3 for time scales shorter than 6 min revealed shorter cycles of fast cooling and warming, which provided information about the lifecycle of updrafts within the storm. The advantages of using observations with high-temporal resolution to analyze the evolution and intensity of convective storms are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A hybrid-kinetic simulation tool for non-thermal warm x-ray z-pinch sources, with gas-puff and wire array exemplars

Increasing the fluence of z-pinch x-ray radiation sources above ∼ 10 keV has been a long-standing goal for scientists at Sandia National Laboratories’ Z Machine. Optimizing sources for non-thermal “cold Kα” emission in higher atomic-number materials appears to be a promising path to increase warm x-ray yield. However, this emission is generated by supra-thermal electrons, which are not treated in the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) codes that are typically used in z-pinch source development. MHD codes do not allow for charge separation or space-charge-generated electric fields, and constrain particle kinematics to Maxwellian distributions. The kinetic codes which do accommodate discrete, non-thermal energy distributions are computationally prohibitive when modeling plasmas near solid density and when modeling/tracking higher ionization states. Thus, modeling non-thermal z-pinch sources requires a new simulation tool. In this report, we present a new hybrid modeling capability that uses the fast features of MHD-type particles to the greatest extent possible, then transitions to the slower but more complete kinetic particle treatment to correctly capture the particle energy spectra that generate non-thermal emission. This capability is founded on the fully-relativistic particle-in-cell code Chicago, which already includes fluid particle treatments. The governing equations and hybrid methodology presented here are applied in simulations of an argon gas-puff and a molybdenum wire-array to provide preliminary code validation. The argon simulation is compared to measured implosion times and yields from Jones et al., Phys. Plasmas 22, 020706 (2015). The simulated x-ray yield is within 25% of measurements and the implosion times agree within a few percent. The molybdenum wire array simulation captures the implosion timing reported in Hansen et al., Phys. Plasmas 21, 031202 (2014), but work is needed to verify the available EOS table. These exemplar simulations represents the type of non-thermal sources that will be developed using the hybrid code capability going forward.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the Dynamics of Energetic Protons in Earth's Inner Magnetosphere

Recently, Van Allen Probes data have revealed the interesting energy-dependent dynamics of energetic protons in Earth's inner magnetosphere. To quantify the role of radial diffusion and charge exchange to the observed energy-dependent dynamics of ring current protons, a 1D radial diffusion model with charge exchange loss is implemented. The observed proton flux over the long-term period of November 2012 to September 2013 is first converted to phase space densities, which are then simulated by our model driven by an outer boundary condition at L* = 5.5 derived from the data. The simulation results show that our model generally captures the transport and acceleration of energetic protons at μ = 30, 50, and 80 MeV/G and K = 0.11 G 1/2 R E , suggesting that radial diffusion is the dominant source mechanism for >75 keV protons at L* = 3.5–5.5. Additionally, the observed fast decay of protons at lower μ and slow decay at higher μ are well captured by the model, demonstrating the dominant role of charge exchange in explaining the observed energy-dependent proton decay. For higher μ protons, prompt losses of protons on the time scale of hours are observed over a wide range of L*, which is too fast to be explained by charge exchange. Some of the prompt losses at high L* regions are reproduced by the model with outward radial diffusion to the outer boundary. However, many prompt losses observed at lower L* regions are not captured by the model, which could be due to other loss mechanisms including electromagnetic ion cyclotron wave scattering and field line curvature scattering.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Planetary waves can activate resonant drag instabilities in 3D dusty gaseous discs

Resonant drag instabilities (RDIs) in protoplanetary discs are driven by the aerodynamic back-reaction of dust on gas and occur when the relative dust-gas motion resonate with a wave mode intrinsic to the gas fluid. Axisymmetric models indicate that the RDI generates filamentary perturbations, leading to grain clumping and planetesimal formation. Motivated by these findings, we investigate the dust–gas interaction in a non-axisymmetric inviscid protoplanetary disc with an embedded low-mass planet ($M_{\mathrm{p}}\in [0.3, 3] \, \rm M_{\oplus }$, here $\, \rm M_{\oplus }$ is the Earth mass). We conduct global 3D high-resolution two-fluid simulations, with the dust being parametrized by the Stokes number $\mathrm{St}\in [0.01,0.5]$. We find that planetary waves (PWs; also known as Rossby waves), which propagate along the downstream separatrices of the horseshoe region, resonate with the streaming motion and trigger the RDI. The consequent development of a global-scale filamentary dust distribution does not sensitively depend on the Stokes number, nor does it depend on the fast dust settling that takes place in an inviscid disc. The rapid onset of this instability, which is comparable to the dynamical orbital time-scale, suppresses the formation of asymmetric structures in the dust in the vicinity of the planet (such as dust voids and filaments). Additionally, we find that the dust feedback enables buoyancy resonances in an otherwise non-buoyant (globally isothermal) disc. Therefore, our results provide the first numerical evidence of RDIs generation driven by planetary waves.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Robust Parallel Distributed State Estimation for Large Scale Distribution Systems

The growing need and interest in real-time monitoring of large distribution networks motivated by the rapid population of renewable sources, EVs and etc. demand a computationally efficient state estimation framework. Furthermore, this paper presents an improved computational framework for implementing a robust state estimator using a multi-core processor. The main contribution of the paper is the proposed computational framework along with two partitioning strategies which enable fast and robust state estimation for large scale radial and/or meshed distribution systems. Formulation of the proposed method and its implementation are described in detail. Performance of the estimator is tested by simulations first using a small 84-bus radial distribution system. Then the method’s scalability is demonstrated by simulations on two very large scale distribution networks one configured radially and the other meshed each containing over 12,500 buses.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Estimating scalar turbulent fluxes with slow-response sensors in the stable atmospheric boundary layer

Conventional and recently developed approaches for estimating turbulent scalar fluxes under stable atmospheric conditions are evaluated, with a focus on gases for which fast sensors are not readily available. First, the relaxed eddy accumulation (REA) classical approach and a recently proposed mixing length parameterization, labeled A22, are tested against eddy-covariance computations. Using high-frequency measurements collected from two contrasting sites (the frozen tundra near Utqiaġvik, Alaska, and a sparsely vegetated grassland in Wendell, Idaho, during winter), it is shown that the REA and A22 models outperform the conventional Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) utilized widely to infer fluxes from mean gradients. Second, scenarios where slow trace gas sensors are the only viable option in field measurements are investigated using digital filtering applied to fast-response sensors to simulate their slow-response counterparts. With a filtered scalar signal, the observed filtered eddy-covariance fluxes are referred to here as large-eddy-covariance (LEC) fluxes. A virtual eddy accumulation (VEA) approach, akin to the REA model but not requiring a mechanical apparatus to separate the gas flows, is also formulated and tested. A22 outperforms VEA and LEC in predicting the observed unfiltered (total) eddy-covariance (EC) fluxes; however, VEA can still capture the LEC fluxes well. This finding motivates the introduction of a sensor response time correction into the VEA formulation to offset the effect of sensor filtering on the underestimated net averaged fluxes. The only needed parameter for this correction is the mean velocity at the instrument height, a surrogate of the advective timescale. The VEA approach is very suitable and simple to use with gas sensors of intermediate speed (∼ 0.5 to 1 Hz) and with conventional open- or closed-path setups.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Microphysically modified magnetosonic modes in collisionless, high-β plasmas

With the support of hybrid-kinetic simulations and analytic theory, we describe the nonlinear behaviour of long-wavelength non-propagating (NP) modes and fast magnetosonic waves in high-β collisionless plasmas, with particular attention to their excitation of and reaction to kinetic micro-instabilities. The perpendicularly pressure balanced polarization of NP modes produces an excess of perpendicular pressure over parallel pressure in regions where the plasma β is increased. For mode amplitudes |δB/B 0 |≳0.3, this excess excites the mirror instability. Particle scattering off these micro-scale mirrors frustrates the nonlinear saturation of transit-time damping, ensuring that large-amplitude NP modes continue their decay to small amplitudes. At asymptotically large wavelengths, we predict that the mirror-induced scattering will be large enough to interrupt transit-time damping entirely, isotropizing the pressure perturbations and morphing the collisionless NP mode into the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) entropy mode. In fast waves, a fluctuating pressure anisotropy drives both mirror and firehose instabilities when the wave amplitude satisfies |δB/B 0 |≳2β -1 . The induced particle scattering leads to delayed shock formation and MHD-like wave dynamics. Taken alongside prior work on self-interrupting Alfvén waves and self-sustaining ion-acoustic waves, our results establish a foundation for new theories of electromagnetic turbulence in low-collisionality, high-β plasmas such as the intracluster medium, radiatively inefficient accretion flows and the near-Earth solar wind.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

High-Fidelity Large-Signal Order Reduction Approach for Composite Load Model

With the increasing penetration of electronic loads and distributed energy resources, conventional load models cannot capture their dynamics. Therefore, a new comprehensive composite load model is developed by Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC). However, this model is a complex high-order non-linear system with multi-time-scale property, which poses challenges on power system studies with heavy computational burden. In order to reduce the model complexity, the authors firstly develop a large-signal order reduction (LSOR) method using singular perturbation theory. In this method, the fast dynamics are integrated into the slow ones to preserve transient characteristics of the former. Then, accuracy assessment conditions are proposed and embedded into the LSOR to improve and guarantee the accuracy of reduced-order model. Finally, the reduced-order WECC composite load model is derived by using the proposed algorithm. Overall, simulation results show that the reduced-order large-signal model significantly alleviates the computational burden while maintaining similar dynamic responses as the original composite load model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multiparticle cumulant mapping for Coulomb explosion imaging: Calculations and algorithm

We present a versatile cumulant mapping algorithm for analyzing correlated particle emission, offering insights into complex electronic and nuclear dynamics. Recently, we have demonstrated the use of cumulant mapping to extract information-rich correlations between the momenta of multiple fragments produced in Coulomb explosion imaging experiments [C. Cheng et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 130, 093001 (2023)]. We define cumulant mapping in terms of histograms, enabling fast computation of linear (additive) observables. However, applying the same algorithm to nonlinear (nonadditive) observables poses challenges, as the computation time of conventional estimators scales nonlinearly with data size. To overcome this, we develop estimators and an accompanying algorithm to enable computationally efficient estimation of the cumulant of interest. Comparisons of computation times and signal-to-noise ratios reveal the superior performance of our approach. This method is demonstrated on the (D+, D+, C+, O+) dissociation channel of CD 2 ⁢O 4+ produced in a strong-field ionization experiment. Additionally, Poisson statistics are used to simulate the two methods and provide insights into the efficiency of our algorithm. The proposed methodology unlocks efficient computation of cumulant mapping for a broader range of complex systems and observables, such as the laser pulse dependence of ionization dynamics.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Gradient-Based Multi-Area Distribution System State Estimation

The increasing distributed and renewable energy resources and controllable devices in distribution systems make fast distribution system state estimation (DSSE) crucial in system monitoring and control. We consider a large multi-phase distribution system and formulate DSSE as a weighted least squares (WLS) problem. We divide the large distribution system into smaller areas of subtree structure, and by jointly exploring the linearized power flow model and the network topology, we propose a gradient-based multi-area algorithm to exactly and efficiently solve the WLS problem. The proposed algorithm enables distributed and parallel computation of the state estimation problem without compromising any performance. Numerical results on a 4,521-node test feeder show that the designed algorithm features fast convergence and accurate estimation results. Comparison with traditional Gauss-Newton method shows that the proposed method has much better performance in distribution systems with a limited amount of reliable measurement. The real-time implementation of the algorithm tracks time-varying system states with high accuracy.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Avoiding excess computation in asynchronous evolutionary algorithms

Abstract Asynchronous evolutionary algorithms are becoming increasingly popular as a means of making full use of many processors while solving computationally expensive search and optimization problems. These algorithms excel at keeping large clusters fully utilized, but may sometimes inefficiently sample an excess of fast‐evaluating solutions at the expense of higher‐quality, slow‐evaluating ones. We have previously introduced a steady‐state parent selection strategy, SWEET (“Selection whilE EvaluaTing”), that sometimes selects individuals that are still being evaluated and allows them to reproduce early. We perform a takeover‐time analysis that confirms that this strategy gives slow‐evaluating individuals that have higher fitnesses an increased ability to multiply in the population. We also find that SWEET appears effective at improving optimization performance on problems in which solution quality is positively correlated with evaluation time. We evaluate our approach on six simulated real‐valued optimization problems and three real‐world applications: an autonomous vehicle controller problem that involves tuning a spiking neural network and two adversarial EA problems. We further evaluate SWEET versus a basic asynchronous process in a simulated setting. We present evidence that SWEET outperforms basic asynchronous processes in a use‐case in which performance is positively correlated with evaluation time, and performs comparably (and often better) than basic asynchronous processes in several use‐cases where performance is negatively correlated with evaluation time. That said, in the cases where performance and evaluation time are negatively correlated the variance of outcomes for SWEET is notably high.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Eureka: Enabling Fine-Grained Access and Range Queries on Compressed Scientific Data via Data-Index Co-Compression

Handling large-scale scientific data in high-performance computing (HPC) environments poses significant challenges, including excessive I/O, high storage costs, and slow query performance. Traditional approaches often require full data decompression and scans, making them impractical for real-time or interactive analysis. To address these limitations, we introduce Eureka, a unified data-index co-compression framework that enables fine-grained access and efficient range queries on compressed scientific datasets. Eureka integrates spatial domain decomposition with block-wise error-bounded lossy compression to support selective decompression. It constructs a hierarchical AVL-tree index during compression to capture block-level value ranges, enabling fast pruning during query execution. To reduce metadata overhead, the index itself is also compressed while ensuring recall-preserving results. Experiments on six diverse HPC simulation datasets show that Eureka achieves up to 25x data compression and over 300x index compression, surpassing state-of-the-art compressors such as SZ3 and ZFP in rate-distortion performance. Additionally, Eureka delivers over 30x speedup for low-selectivity range queries, making it a scalable and efficient solution for modern scientific data analysis.

Yan, Ning↗