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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Explainable machine learning reveals that local structural motifs encode the thermodynamic state across the CuZr metallic glass-forming range

Metallic glasses derive their properties from the statistics of local atomic motifs rather than from long-range order, yet a quantitative, chemistry-specific link between motif populations and the underlying glassy state has remained elusive. In this work we combine large-scale molecular dynamics, Voronoi tessellation, deep neural networks, and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to identify which local structural motifs define the glassy state of Cu—Zr metallic glasses. A dataset of 17,180 atomistic configurations spanning ten compositions (Cu 20 Zr 80 –Cu 80 Zr 20 ) and four quench rates (10 9 –10 12 K/s) is used to train a feed-forward neural network that regresses temperature across the 50–2000 K liquid–supercooled–glass range, achieving a mean absolute error of 19.89 K and R 2 = 0.9974, confirming that the local structural state is faithfully encoded in motif-level structure. SHAP analysis then reveals that a tightly coupled near-icosahedral family of motifs (coordination numbers (CN) 11–13, including the full icosahedron 001200 and its single-atom-perturbation sibling 10930) collectively encodes the thermodynamic state of the system across the full glass-forming range. The CN = 11–13 ordered members carry negative SHAP values at high populations, tracking the most deeply-quenched configurations, while 10930 shows the reversed signature consistent with its role as a soft-spot host whose population shrinks as the icosahedral network deepens. The analysis demonstrates that explainable machine learning can isolate the minimal motif vocabulary defining the glassy state and recovers the near-icosahedral building blocks previously identified by data-driven analyses of Cu—Zr. The approach provides a general, chemistry-specific route for characterizing the structural state of disordered materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Revolutionizing thermal Management in Next-Generation AI data centers: Challenges and breakthrough innovations

Data centers (DCs) serve as critical infrastructure for powering the growth and evolution of AI. Next-generation AI DCs present unique challenges in thermal management driven by unprecedented computational demands. This paper provides a comprehensive summary of key stakeholder perspectives on technology gaps, infrastructure requirements, test bed needs, emerging opportunities, and preliminary solutions related to thermal management for AI DCs. It establishes six strategic pillars of thermal management for next generation AI DC: reliability, deployability, efficiency, resilience, measurability, and valorization. The discussion spans a range of critical topics, including advanced cooling technologies, thermal strategies for emerging modular and edge DCs, system-level optimization and control frameworks, infrastructure planning and grid integration designs, benchmarking approaches, and pathways for waste heat recovery and reuse. The proposed research, development, and demonstration efforts are aimed at accelerating the deployment of AI DCs while ensuring energy efficiency, reliability, safety, and regulatory compliance.

Wang, Pengtao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000214713429)↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Data-Driven Method for Modeling Creep-Fatigue Stress- Strain Behavior Using Neural ODEs

In this paper, we introduce a data-driven machine learning approach for modeling one-dimensional stress–strain behavior under cyclic loading, utilizing experimental data from the nickel-based Alloy 617. The study employs uniaxial creep–fatigue test data acquired under various loading histories and compares two distinct neural network-based ODE models. The first model, known as the black-box model, comprehensively describes the strain–stress relationship using a Neural ODE equation. To interpret this black-box model, we apply the Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamical Systems (SINDy) technique, transforming the black-box model into an equation-based model using symbolic regression. The second model, the Neural flow rule model, incorporates Hooke’s Law for the linear elastic component, with the nonlinear part characterized by a Neural ODE. Both models are trained with experimental data to accurately reflect the observed stress–strain behavior. We conduct a detailed comparison with the standard Chaboche model, which includes three back stresses. Our results demonstrate that the neural network-based ODE models precisely capture the experimental creep–fatigue mechanical behavior, exceeding the standard Chaboche model’s accuracy. Furthermore, an interpretable model derived from the black-box neural ODE model through symbolic regression achieves accuracy comparable to the Chaboche model, enhancing its interpretability. The results highlight the potential of neural network-based ODE models to depict complex creep–fatigue behavior, eliminating the necessity for experts to define a specific, material-focused model form.

creep-fatigue↗
NASA NTRS1994

Advanced nickel-hydrogen spacecraft battery development

Eagle-Picher currently has several advanced nickel-hydrogen (NiH2) cell component and battery designs under development including common pressure vessel (CPV), single pressure vessel (SPV), and dependent pressure vessel (DPV) designs. A CPV NiH2 battery, utilizing low-cost 64 mm (2.5 in.) cell diameter technology, has been designed and built for multiple smallsat programs, including the TUBSAT B spacecraft which is currently scheduled (24 Nov. 93) for launch aboard a Russian Proton rocket. An advanced 90 mm (3.5 in.) NiH2 cell design is currently being manufactured for the Space Station Freedom program. Prototype 254 mm (10 in.) diameter SPV batteries are currently under construction and initial boilerplate testing has shown excellent results. NiH2 cycle life testing is being continued at Eagle-Picher and IPV cells have currently completed more than 89,000 accelerated LEO cycles at 15% DOD, 49,000 real-time LEO cycles at 30 percent DOD, 37,800 cycles under a real-time LEO profile, 30 eclipse seasons in accelerated GEO, and 6 eclipse seasons in real-time GEO testing at 75 percent DOD maximum. Nickel-metal hydride battery development is continuing for both aerospace and electric vehicle applications. Eagle-Picher has also developed an extensive range of battery evaluation, test, and analysis (BETA) measurement and control equipment and software, based on Hewlett-Packard computerized data acquisition/control hardware.

Coates, Dwaine K.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Charge-exchange erosion studies of accelerator grids in ion thrusters

A particle simulation model is developed to study the charge-exchange grid erosion in ion thrusters for both ground-based and space-based operations. Because the neutral gas downstream from the accelerator grid is different for space and ground operation conditions, the charge-exchange erosion processes are also different. Based on an assumption of now electric potential hill downstream from the ion thruster, the calculations show that the accelerator grid erosion rate for space-based operating conditions should be significantly less than experimentally observed erosion rates from the ground-based tests conducted at NASA Lewis Research Center (LeRC) and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). To resolve this erosion issue completely, we believe that it is necessary to accurately measure the entire electric potential field downstream from the thruster.

Xiaohang Peng↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design and Analysis of Battery Thermal Management Systems

Thermal management of battery cell packs is a critically needed technology. The purpose of this work is to design new and improved Battery Thermal Management Systems (BTMS) for use in electric airplanes. The BTMS should be 3D printable and hold twelve to sixteen 18650 batteries. To minimize aircraft’s weight, an actively air-cooled battery pack was chosen to avoid the excess weight of water-cooled and phase change material (PCM) cooled packs. As a result, significant changes were made to remove all metal in the pack and replace it with lower density polymer matrix composites (PMCs) which can be additively manufactured. Two air cooled battery pack configurations (traditional propeller fans & bladeless fans) were designed, modeled, and compared. These packs were first modeled in SolidWorks 2021 3D CAD, then imported into COMSOL MultiPhysics to be studied using the “Heat Transfer in Solids and Fluids” module. The design with the bladeless fans eliminated the need to use high conductivity heavy metal to remove unwanted thermal energy. These bladeless fans were designed entirely out of PMCs. This thermal pack design weighs 0.04 kg less than that of the traditional propeller fans design and has increased the battery pack energy density by 8.25 Wh/kg.

Thermal Management System for Battery Packs↗
NASA NTRS2026

PERSIANN-Unet: A Global Deep Learning Framework for Near-Real-Time Precipitation Estimation Using Infrared Data

Access to high-quality, high-resolution, near-real-time precipitation data is essential for hydrological and meteorological research and disaster mitigation. Traditional tools such as rain gauges and radar networks, though effective, have limitations, including sparse coverage in remote areas and high operational costs. Satellite data, with its global coverage and high spatial and temporal resolutions, mitigates limitations in coverage. Satellite precipitation products like Hydro Estimator (HE), Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG), and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) utilize both geosynchronous thermal infrared (IR) and passive microwave (PMW) data in their operation. PMW sensors offer detailed atmospheric profiles but suffer from higher latency, whereas IR sensors provide lower latency but only capture cloud-top information. Despite this constraint, IR data remains attractive for low-latency precipitation estimation. Recent advances in deep learning, particularly convolutional neural networks (CNNs), have further improved satellite precipitation retrievals. This study introduces PERSIANN-Unet (PUnet or PERSIANN V3), a quasi-global algorithm covering 60°N–60°S that combines IR data, monthly climatology, and the UNet architecture to produce half-hourly precipitation estimates at 0.04° resolution. The product is evaluated against HE, IMERG, and PDIR-Now for 2022–2023. Results show that PUnet closely matches its training target, IMERG V07 Final, at the global scale, and performance is further evaluated against Stage IV as a reference over CONUS. Training PUnet on IMERG (2016–2021) leverages a high-quality, integrated PMW IR-gauge precipitation product while developing an IR-based framework not reliant on PMW availability. By operating on a single global image, PUnet avoids tile partitioning and blending steps, reducing edge discontinuities, and produces more spatially consistent precipitation fields across hemispheres.

Phu Nguyen↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Thermal-Fluid Analysis of a Liquid-Cooled Battery Module for Electrified Aircraft

The development of safe, energy-dense batteries is critical to advancing hybrid electric and fully electrified aircraft propulsion. Achieving this capability requires a thermal management system that can maintain battery performance and safety under demanding operational conditions. The objective of this project is to support the maturation of next-generation lithium-ion batteries for electrified aircraft by conducting performance testing on integrated battery modules, specifically a 2-cell series configuration module housed within an aluminum enclosure. Designed to operate at a nominal 7.2 V with discharge rates up to 2.5C, the module will eventually be used to power an electric motor and DC-DC converter, generating substantial thermal loads that must be effectively managed to increase the usable energy and power density of electrified aircraft. To address these thermal challenges, this study presents the development and thermal-fluid analysis of a liquid-cooled thermal management system. While the full aircraft architecture utilizes an eight-string configuration, the present work evaluates a representative single-string water coolant loop to characterize baseline performance. The active cooling loop circulates water through a reservoir, pump, the battery module, and a variable area flow meter. Key performance metrics including component-level temperatures, mass flow rates, and pressure drops are quantified across the loop. Across discharge rates ranging from 0.5C to 2.5C, the active thermal loop consistently and effectively removed heat from the module, validating the design approach and confirming readiness for further development. The validated thermal performance indicates a path toward scalable battery modules that could enable energy and power dense systems for hybrid electric aircraft.

Electrified Aircraft↗
NASA NTRS2026

South Asian Monsoon Response to Regional Aerosol Emission Reductions: Insights From RAMIP

Anthropogenic aerosol and associated precursor gas emissions are already declining in many regions and are likely to decline significantly by 2050, with major implications for regional climate. Unlike greenhouse gases, aerosol impacts are spatially heterogeneous and can influence climate both near emission sources and through remote teleconnections. This is particularly important for the South Asian monsoon system, where both local and remote aerosol changes can significantly affect precipitation patterns. Using simulations from the Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project, we examine how local and remote aerosol emission reductions influence South Asian climate across both pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons, including weakening of the elevated heat pump (EHP) mechanism during pre-monsoon months. Our analysis employs 10-member ensembles from 10 CMIP6-era models to compare three experiments with global, South Asian, and East Asian aerosol reductions relative to a high-emission baseline (SSP3-7.0). This experimental design allows us to isolate and quantify the distinct impacts of regional emission changes. Results reveal that global aerosol reductions produce a larger all-India precipitation increase (+0.28 mm day −1 ) than South Asian reductions alone (+0.19 mm day −1 ), with the strongest regional responses over the northern Bay of Bengal, the Western Ghats and Indo-Gangetic Plains. East Asian reductions show uncertain but modest precipitation reductions of 0.2-0.6 mm day −1 over parts of west-central and eastern Indian regions. Pre-monsoon carbonaceous aerosol reductions systematically weaken the EHP, cooling the mid-troposphere over the Himalayan foothills by up to 0.4 K and producing localised anomalous descent that opposes the climatological pre-monsoon ascent. Substantial inter-model diversity exists in the spatial patterns and magnitudes of these responses, highlighting key uncertainties in aerosol–monsoon interactions. The South Asian precipitation response is driven by enhanced land–sea thermal contrast, while the pre-monsoon EHP weakening is attributable exclusively to local South Asian carbonaceous aerosol forcing rather than remote teleconnections. These findings have direct implications for air quality and climate adaptation planning across South Asia as regional aerosol emissions diverge under different development pathways.

cmip6↗
DOE OSTI2024

Learning Nonlinear Reduced Models from Data with Operator Inference

This review discusses Operator Inference, a nonintrusive reduced modeling approach that incorporates physical governing equations by defining a structured polynomial form for the reduced model, and then learns the corresponding reduced operators from simulated training data. The polynomial model form of Operator Inference is sufficiently expressive to cover a wide range of nonlinear dynamics found in fluid mechanics and other fields of science and engineering, while still providing efficient reduced model computations. The learning steps of Operator Inference are rooted in classical projection-based model reduction; thus, some of the rich theory of model reduction can be applied to models learned with Operator Inference. This connection to projection-based model reduction theory offers a pathway toward deriving error estimates and gaining insights to improve predictions. Furthermore, through formulations of Operator Inference that preserve Hamiltonian and other structures, important physical properties such as energy conservation can be guaranteed in the predictions of the reduced model beyond the training horizon. This review illustrates key computational steps of Operator Inference through a large-scale combustion example.

Mechanics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Purpose, Design, and Analysis of the NSTX-U Centerstack Casing Lateral Support Shims

The National Spherical Torus Experiment Upgrade (NSTX-U) centerstack casing surrounds the central magnet core of NSTXU. It provides the inner vacuum boundary of the plasma chamber and supports the radially inboard plasma facing components lining the plasma chamber. The casing is supported like a cantilever, fixed at the lower flange by a connection to the TF Bundle through a G-10 ring. It is flexibly supported at the top by bellows, and insulated shims intended to react the largest part of the inventory of the disruption loads at the upper support, thereby protecting the upper and lower connections from excessive loads. A large part of the qualification of the casing and tiles requires addressing and quantifying disruption loads. These have been estimated based on extensions of the behavior of NSTX during its run period roughly 15 years ago. Structural qualification of the Upgrade used these estimates of the loading as input to calculations to demonstrate adequacy for a “most probable” disruption. The estimates are included in a requirements document to guide conservative design of all components loaded by disruptions. However, the changes made for the upgrade made the extrapolation of disruption behavior uncertain. Disruptions include axisymmetric loading from axisymmetric currents induced in the vessel shells. In addition, more complex currents called Halo currents are a result of plasma poloidal currents impinging on the casing. The halo currents add another layer of uncertain behavior and net lateral loading to the casing. As a result, NSTX-U is equipped with a number of instruments intended to assess the nature and severity of disruptions. The casing shims are required for lateral support of the casing, but these have also been converted to load cells to provide another measure of the magnitude of symmetric and asymmetric loading. Some of the logic in the development of the requirements document are presented. Electromagnetic analysis of axisymmetric and halo loading is described. Global simulations of the casing transient dynamic response, and local analysis and testing of the shim/load cell are included. The shim load cells and other instrumentation will be an important guide in planning NSTX-U experiments beyond its next run period expected in late 2026 or early 2027.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1993

The Telecommunications and Data Acquisition Report

This quarterly publication provides archival reports on developments in programs managed by JPL's Office of Telecommunications and Data Acquisition (TDA). In space communications, radio navigation, radio science, and ground-based radio and radar astronomy, it reports on activities of the Deep Space Network (DSN) in planning, supporting research and technology, implementation, and operations. Also included are standards activity at JPL for space data and information systems and reimbursable DSN work performed for other space agencies through NASA. The preceding work is all performed for NASA's Office of Space Communications (OSC). The TDA Office also performs work funded by another NASA program office through and with the cooperation of OSC. This is the Orbital Debris Radar Program with tile Office of Space Systems Development. The TDA Office is directly involved in several tasks that directly support the Office of Space Science (OSS), with OSC funding DSN operational support. In radio science, The TDA Progress Report describes the spacecraft radio science program conducted using tile DSN. For the High-Resolution Microwave Survey (HRMS), the report covers implementation and operations for searching the microwave spectrum. In solar system radar, it reports on the uses of the Goldstone Solar System Radar for scientific exploration of the planets, their rings and satellites, asteroids, and comets. In radio astronomy, the areas off support include spectroscopy, very long baseline interferometry, and astrometry.

Edward C Posner↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimizing Deep Geothermal Drilling for Energy Sustainability in the Appalachian Basin

This study investigates the geological and geomechanical characteristics of the MIP 1S geothermal well in the Appalachian Basin to optimize drilling and address the wellbore stability issues encountered. Data from well logs, sidewall core analysis, and injection tests were used to derive elastic and rock strength properties, as well as stress and pore pressure profiles. A robust 1D-geomechanical model was developed and validated, correlating strongly with wellbore instability observations. This revealed significant wellbore breakout, widening the diameter from 12 ¼ inches to over 16 inches. Advanced technologies like Cerebro Force™ In-Bit Sensing were used to monitor drilling performance with high accuracy. This technology tracks critical metrics such as bit acceleration, vibration in the x, y, and z directions, Gyro RPM, stick-slip indicators, and bending on the bit. Cerebro Force™ readings identified hole drag caused by poor hole conditions, including friction between the drill string and wellbore walls and the presence of cuttings or debris. This led to higher torque and weight on bit (WOB) readings at the surface compared to downhole measurements, affecting drilling efficiency and wellbore stability. Optimal drilling parameters for future deep geothermal wells were determined based on these findings.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Nanostructuring and Underscreening of Bisalt Electrolytes with Dual-Anion Effects: Insights from Small-Angle Scattering Prepeak Analysis

Using small-angle neutron scattering, we studied the nanostructure of a prototypical D(H)-bonded network electrolyte, alkaline sodium aluminate bisalt, at concentrations up to solute volume fraction of ~0.5. Analysis of the structure factor prepeak at 0.1 < Q < 1.0 Å-1 showed that its evolution is associated with nanoscopic species distribution in water-anion network., with differences in characteristic distance d between OD- and Al(OD)4- anions related to their distinct sizes and interactions. When the solute volume fraction approached 0.5, a common/maximum value of ~4.5 Å was found for the correlation length ? that characterizes the electrostatic force in concentrated electrolyte solution before precipitation occurred. This implies that the solutions’ morphology and behavior at high concentrations may be governed by geometric factors, rather than the chemistry of the specific anion. Furthermore, the scaling of ? with concentration yielded an exponent of 1.25(1), suggesting that ? is limited to a few Å. By combining the current observations of structural heterogeneity at the nanoscale, with dynamic heterogeneity at the microscopic scale from our previous quasi-elastic neutron scattering study, we have established a structural origin of local “caging” and restricted structural relaxation processes. These local solvent-solute interactions not only control dynamics heterogeneity in concentrated electrolytes but also are responsible for crystallization processes in industrial setting, such as aluminum production and radioactive waste treatment.

Wang, Hsiu-Wen↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adaptive Scalpel Scanning Probe Microscopy for Enhanced Volumetric Sensing in Tomographic Analysis

Controlling nanoscale tip‐induced material removal is crucial for achieving atomic‐level precision in tomographic sensing with atomic force microscopy (AFM). While advances have enabled volumetric probing of conductive features with nanometer accuracy in solid‐state devices, materials, and photovoltaics, limitations in spatial resolution and volumetric sensitivity persist. This work identifies and addresses in‐plane and vertical tip‐sample junction leakage as sources of parasitic contrast in tomographic AFM, hindering real‐space 3D reconstructions. Novel strategies are proposed to overcome these limitations. First, the contrast mechanisms analyzing nanosized conductive features are explored when confining current collection purely to in‐plane transport, thus allowing reconstruction with a reduction in the overestimation of the lateral dimensions. Furthermore, an adaptive tip‐sample biasing scheme is demonstrated for the mitigation of a class of artefacts induced by the high electric field inside the thin oxide when volumetrically reduced. This significantly enhances vertical sensitivity by approaching the intrinsic limits set by quantum tunneling processes, allowing detailed depth analysis in thin dielectrics. The effectiveness of these methods is showcased in tomographic reconstructions of conductive filaments in valence change memory, highlighting the potential for application in nanoelectronics devices and bulk materials and unlocking new limits for tomographic AFM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Field Validation of Thermoelectric Generation System at Holcim Cement Plant in Alpena, Michigan

Executive Summary Project Background The Industrial Technology Validation (ITV) program aims to identify and demonstrate the performance of new, emerging, and underutilized energy-saving technologies in the industrial sector to help inform decisions to help accelerate their commercialization and deployment, as well as to help make industries more competitive. This ITV demonstration evaluated a thermoelectric generation (TEG) technology at a cement plant, aiming to reduce energy demand in the cement industry. A median cement plant consumes 5.73 million British thermal units per ton of clinker production (resulting in 0.838 metric tons of carbon dioxide [CO₂] emissions per ton of clinker) (Boyd and Zhang 2011, EPA 2021), equivalent to approximately 6.9 trillion British thermal units (TBtu) per year in energy consumption at a cement plant producing 3,300 tons of clinker per day.¹ Collaborating with Holcim, Advanced Thermovoltaic Systems (ATS) developed and deployed a pilot-scale thermoelectric power system to efficiently capture and convert waste heat to electricity. The system leverages the Seebeck effect to convert temperature differences on two sides of semiconductor cartridges into electrical power (ScienceDirect, n.d.). This generation is realized with minimal moving parts compared to existing waste-heat-to-generation solutions and allows capture from heat sources with temperatures as low as 150°C. This project aimed to validate a scalable solution applicable for capturing medium-temperature waste heat, including ambient losses from other high-temperature processes, and high-temperature sources less suitable for other waste-heat-to-power solutions. By recovering this otherwise wasted heat, this project intends to validate improvements to overall process efficiency through reduction in purchased electricity, thereby reducing operational costs while enhancing resiliency and competitiveness. Description and Scope This study evaluated the performance of a TEG system from ATS as a solution to convert waste heat into useful power at a Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan. This plant is a fully integrated cement plant that has been operating since 1907. The facility operates continuously (24/7/365) with approximately 250 employees and five long dry kilns, yielding a total production capacity of 7,852 tons of cement per day (EPA 2023). Currently, the Alpena plant uses waste heat boilers to convert waste heat from the exhaust of each kiln into steam, which drives steam turbine generators. The ATS TEG is being evaluated for its potential to supplement the steam turbines by capturing the remaining lower grade heat. This technology is also being considered for other Holcim plants where steam turbines are not a viable option. ATS installed a pilot-scale TEG unit with an array of 582 individual thermoelectric semiconductor cartridges, of which 573 were operational. The cartridges are sandwiched between 48 hot plates and 49 cold plates. Each cartridge is designed to generate 20 watts (W) of gross power at a hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. As such, the total gross generation capacity of the installed system is 11.5 kilowatts (kW) at design conditions. The system configuration for the evaluation was designed to prioritize convenience of installation and minimize disruption to production at the site, while ensuring that the heat required can be obtained for evaluating the TEG system at various operational conditions. To accomplish this, a portion of the steam supplied to Alpena’s steam turbine generation system was diverted to be used as the heat source for the TEG system, while water was supplied to the cold side of the system from nearby Lake Huron. This configuration was designed for the evaluation of the pilot-scale system to assess the performance at different conditions. A commercial-scale system will likely vary from the pilot system depending on typical configurations, including both scale and application. Future commercial applications of the ATS system would involve integrating the system into the exhaust from kiln preheaters, clinker coolers, or radiant heat capture from kiln shells for the heat source. For the cold source, a range of cooling solutions can be considered, including a mechanical cooling system, depending on the location and the application. To increase the generation capacity for commercial applications, the technology provider is working toward developing a commercial-scale TEG system, which would combine multiple TEG units (each similar in design to the pilot system) together. The scope of this evaluation includes the pilot-scale TEG system and all impacted equipment including pumps, controllers, and power handling equipment. Study Objectives The evaluation's goal was to assess the potential of the ATS TEG system to generate useful electrical power by capturing waste heat from cement production kilns. The objectives of this study are to evaluate and verify the following claims made by ATS regarding the pilot-scale system installed at the Holcim Alpena plant. The following design parameters and claims are also outlined in Table ES- 1 and Table ES- 2: • Gross Power: The thermoelectric system converts heat into power to create gross power, the total measured power generated by the system. The 573 active cartridge pilot-scale system is expected to generate 11.5 kW of gross power at the designed hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. Power production is dependent on the temperature difference between the heat source (ultimately from the waste heat) and cold temperature supply source. • Net Power: The net power is the total usable power provided to the site by the TEG system after deducting parasitic power loads from the gross generated power. Supplementary equipment is required to operate the TEG system including pumps, controllers, and, in certain anticipated applications, mechanical cooling, which introduce parasitic loads to system operation. After deducting the parasitic loads from the gross power generation, ATS anticipates achieving a net power generation of 7.5 kW from the pilot-scale system. • Thermal Efficiency: The thermal efficiency is the percent of the total heat transferred to the TEG system that is converted to gross power. Historically, TEGs have a thermal efficiency of 2%–5% (DOE 2008). Prior industrial-scale TEG systems, such as the E1 TEG offered by Alphabet Energy, operated at an efficiency of 2.5% (Lamonica, 2014). ATS anticipates achieving an average efficiency of 4.8% or higher in converting heat energy to usable electricity. • Cartridge Performance: The TEG system comprises 573 active individual semiconductor cartridges, each of which generates a portion of the total power. Cartridge optimization and selection is an important design consideration for potential future TEG system design performance. Therefore, understanding the distribution of gross power and efficiency within the pilot system is vital to understanding what is achievable. At a design hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C, ATS anticipates a cartridge performance of 20 W of gross power per cartridge at an efficiency of 4.8% per cartridge. In addition to evaluating the claimed performance of the TEG pilot-scale unit, the study estimated the potential annual impacts of a scaled-up commercial system used to capture kiln waste heat over annual operations. The evaluation estimated the gross and net annual electric generation achievable by capturing heat from the two proposed tap-in points: the kiln exhaust and the clinker cooler exhaust; see Section 2.1 for details. Two use cases were examined: • Holcim Alpena: The Holcim Alpena site consists of long dry kilns with superheater boilers, which differs from the rest of Holcim’s cement plant portfolio and results in lower waste heat temperatures. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the superheater boiler exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, based on 2023 operational data. • Typical Installation: Common cement plants have preheater kilns with higher exhaust temperatures than Holcim Alpena across a range of production rates. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the preheater exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, with a sensitivity analysis to account for the typical range of preheater exhaust temperatures, clinker cooler exhaust temperatures, and clinker production rates. Methodology The evaluation methodology followed a measurement and verification (M&V) strategy based on the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol Option B through comprehensive measurements and analyses of the affected systems. Evaluation data was collected from March 9 to March 11, 2024, the test period of the pilot TEG system. During the test period, in coordination with the ITV team, the ATS team adjusted system operations to capture the range of variability expected for each of the variables pertinent to performance of the system. The methodology consisted of two parts: evaluating the performance of the pilot unit's TEG system and estimating the annual TEG impact in terms of gross and net power based on a given waste heat profile. First, the evaluation of the thermoelectric generation performance of the pilot unit relative to the claims was performed by analyzing the collected test data. Gross power of the pilot TEG system was directly measured. Net power was determined by deducting the measured parasitic power from the gross power. The gross power generation was compared to heat transferred to the system by the working fluid (which was heated by steam generated from the kiln waste heat) to calculate the thermal efficiency achieved by the system. Performance of individual semiconductor cartridges within the pilot array was also assessed in terms of measured gross cartridge power and calculated cartridge thermal efficiency. The second part of the evaluation estimated the annual TEG impacts in terms of gross power and net power (calculated from the difference between gross power and parasitic power). This analysis comprised development of mathematical regression models for gross power and parasitic power, with assessment of each model’s goodness-of-fit characteristics to ensure satisfaction of statistical requirements. The models predicted the gross power generation, the parasitic load based on the temperature difference between the hot working fluid and the cold-side fluid (cold water from Lake Huron) entering the system, the volumetric flow rate of the cold-side fluid at the inlet, and the volumetric flow rate of the hot working fluid at the inlet. The annual impact analysis considered a theoretical commercial-scale system sized to capture the available waste heat at a cement plant, consisting of linked pilot-scale units that receive heat from a theoretical gas-to-working-fluid heat exchanger. To estimate annual impacts at the Alpena plant, the gross power and parasitic power regression models were applied to the arrays in the theoretical commercial-scale system. The heat supplied to the unit was calculated based on the kiln run time, annual production, kiln exhaust waste heat, and clinker cooler waste heat derived from 2023 Holcim Alpena kiln operational data. Net power impacts were calculated by deducting the resulting parasitic power from the estimated gross power. Inputs for the model were generated from a combination of hourly data, assumed design considerations for TEG system scale-up from the pilot-scale unit, and assumptions regarding TEG system operations. This analysis was then used as the basis for estimating annual impacts of typical TEG installation at cement plants, by applying sensitivity analyses to key kiln operational characteristics including kiln preheater exhaust temperatures, cooler clinker exhaust temperatures, and plant daily production rates across a range of expected values. Project Results/Findings Table ES- 2 and Table ES- 2 provide a summary of the operating conditions and evaluation results compared to the stated claims from the technology provider. Key takeaways include: • Gross Power: The peak gross power achieved during the testing period was 10.0 kW, compared to the 11.5 kW expected for 573 active cartridges. The claimed gross power was associated with a target hot side of 240°C; however, the system only received a maximum hot-side mean plate temperature of 212°C during the testing period. • Net Power: The pilot-scale unit exceeded the claims for net power, achieving a peak of 7.7 kW net compared to a claim of 7.5 kW. One factor contributing to the higher achieved net power is the relatively high water pressure available through Lake Huron. The pilot TEG system did not require cold-side pumps during the test, whereas most installations would. This reduced the parasitic loads on the system, ultimately contributing to higher net power relative to the gross power. • Thermal Efficiency: The pilot-scale unit outperformed the claimed efficiency, achieving a peak system efficiency of 5.0% thermal efficiency compared to the stated 4.8%. • Cartridge Performance: To compare cartridge performance against claims, the study focused on the third day of testing, which aimed for conditions closest to the design specifications, with a hot side of 240°C and cold-side exit temperature of 6.4°–30°C. On this day, the mean gross power observed in the cartridges within the TEG array was 18.1 W/cartridge, and the peak performance was 34.7 W/cartridge. The estimated mean cartridge efficiency was 5.2%, and the estimated efficiency at peak gross cartridge power was 10%. The regression models developed for gross power generation and parasitic loads were used to estimate the generation impact for given heat input to the TEG from the working fluid (captured from the waste heat) and from the cold loop (Lake Huron) on an hourly basis for a year of operation. Based on this analysis, installation of a commercial-scale TEG system at the Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan, with a waste heat exchanger of 0.85 effectiveness, would generate up to 391 kW of net power, translating to between 920,000 and 1,800,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) in net electricity per year. Based on typical grid emissions for Alpena, this would avoid estimated net emissions by 752 metric tons of CO₂ annually.² The sensitivity analysis estimated that typical TEG system installations at cement plants could generate an average of 56–1,040 kW of net power, or between 488,000 and 9,110,000 kWh of net energy. This generation potential is most significantly affected by plant production rates and also influenced by preheater and clinker cooler exhaust temperatures. Applying the national average emission rate, typical commercial-scale installations at Holcim plants are projected to avoid between 182 and 3,401 metric tons of CO₂ annually per site. Table ES- 3 shows a summary of the estimated annual impacts.³ While parasitic loads are significant and vary by application, this analysis assumed the use of heating loop pumps and access to Lake Huron as a cold sink. This setup assumed no need for cooling loop pumps due to the available water pressure at the test site. Applications that require cooling towers or additional equipment are likely to experience higher parasitic loads. Therefore, the study’s estimates are most applicable to scenarios with similar parasitic load configurations—namely, access to a high-pressure cold sink. Applicability to other locations may be limited, as differing conditions could necessitate additional pumps and cooling systems, potentially impacting performance significantly.

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