Advances in geophysical forensic event monitoring
Forensic analysis of man-made, non-nuclear events (such as industrial accidents, explosion experiments and mine collapses) has become more frequent and detailed owing to advancements in geophysical monitoring. Here, in this Technical Review, we demonstrate how geophysical forensic monitoring using seismic, infrasound and hydroacoustic recordings provides insights on events in the solid earth, atmosphere and underwater. Advanced techniques, including machine-learning-based models, have been developed to detect, identify and investigate these events, providing information on location, subevents, sources and explosive yield. The increase in data availability, application of advanced methods and computation and the growth of multitechnology approaches have increased the accuracy of forensic event analysis and enabled more realistic characterization of uncertainties. For example, the 2020 Beirut explosion in Lebanon demonstrated that various seismic, acoustic and other methods could be used to estimate explosive yield (and yield uncertainties) of about 1 ktonne, providing confidence in the application of these methods to smaller events where data are available. However, forensic investigations remain largely limited to known events with identified sources. Increased access to data, sophisticated analysis methods and high-resolution earth models will improve forensic event analysis further, enabling civil and scientific applications, such as localization in the search for the lost ARA San Juan submarine.