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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Ultrafast current imaging by Bayesian inversion

Spectroscopic measurements of current–voltage curves in scanning probe microscopy is the earliest and one of the most common methods for characterizing local energy-dependent electronic properties, providing insight into superconductive, semiconductor, and memristive behaviors. However, the quasistatic nature of these measurements renders them extremely slow. Here, we demonstrate a fundamentally new approach for dynamic spectroscopic current imaging via full information capture and Bayesian inference. This general-mode I–V method allows three orders of magnitude faster measurement rates than presently possible. The technique is demonstrated by acquiring I–V curves in ferroelectric nanocapacitors, yielding >100,000 I–V curves in <20 min. This allows detection of switching currents in the nanoscale capacitors, as well as determination of the dielectric constant. These experiments show the potential for the use of full information capture and Bayesian inference toward extracting physics from rapid I–V measurements, and can be used for transport measurements in both atomic force and scanning tunneling microscopy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1996

Observations and Analysis of Atmospheric Hydroxyl

Ground-based measurements of sunlight absorption at the OH P(sub 1)(l) resonance line at 308 nm have been made on a continuous basis at Fritz Peak, Colorado. The derived OH vertical column abundances show the persistence of a new seasonal regime which began in 1991. The fall minimum has been consistently depressed about 10-15% below the 1980-1990 average fall values. While the initial onset of depressed fall abundances occurred a few months after the Pinatubo eruption, there has been no fall OH recovery correlating with decreased amounts of volcanic aerosol found since spring 1993. The Colorado data also continues to exhibit an AM-PM asymmetry which varies seasonally, approximately in phase with local total ozone. These observations were presented at the Front Range AGU meeting in February 1996 and were published in Geophysical Research Letters in July 1996 (preprint enclosed). An update through the fall of 1996, when morning abundances were found to be extremely low, was presented at the Fall 1996 AGU meeting (abstract attached). A PEPSIOS instrument of identical design is currently operational and has been used since April 1996 for OH column measurements at New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM. Title for both instruments was transferred from Florida Atlantic University to New Mexico Tech in February of 1996. Comparative measurements from the two instruments for April-July 1996 indicate small differences in OH column abundances, with New Mexico (34 deg N) abundances about 10% above Colorado (40 deg N) values for comparable solar zenith angles. A more detailed comparison will require at least one full year of data from both locations. New Mexico measurements were obtained on June 10, 1996, concurrently with a balloon launch of the NASA STRAT mission from Fort Sumner, New Mexico. We hope to make use of STRAT measurements H2O, CH4, and O3 which are particularly relevant to OH photochemistry. Additional work at New Mexico Tech involves a comparison of P(sub 1)(1) and Q(sub 1)(3) absorption by the method of Doppler shift of solar limb spectra. These are being used to infer path weighted temperatures and for validations studies on the standard method of analysis using the single P(sub 1)(1) line. Results were presented at the Fall 1996 AGU meeting (abstract attached). A graduate student in the Physics Department at New Mexico Tech has been supported since August 1996. The student is investigating column OH behavior using the NCAR 2-D model of the middle atmosphere. Graduate student support was not available until the start of the second year (Nov. 15, 1996), therefore funds have been transferred from the allocation for the research associate, who resigned from the project July 1, 1996.

Minschwaner, Ken R.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Scalable Generation of High-fidelity Synthetic Population Ensembles

Used within social simulations, synthetic population ensembles enable uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for obtaining more robust model inference and prediction. A synthetic population ensemble is a series of plausible virtual reconstructions of an area’s population at the granularity of people and residences, generated stochastically to preserve privacy of the source population survey’s respondents. In this paper, we demonstrate the production of large synthetic population ensembles for the U.S. via Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s UrbanPop framework to support modeling of high spatial resolution energy affordability metrics from nationwide social surveys in collaboration with the fusionACS project. The study involves two scenarios: creating ensembles for (1) 17 U.S. metropolitan areas in 2019 and (2) full U.S. Census Divisions in 2023, with each scenario consisting of 41 population instances (a base realization and 40 replicates). To accomplish this task at scale, we configured an integrated system within a research cloud, comprised of virtual containerizations, GPU-enhanced functionality, and orchestrated deployments of UrbanPop’s maturing Likeness Python ecosystem. Results demonstrate we maintained high-fidelity approximations of residential totals by areas of interest and the demographic characteristics of neighborhoods while reducing manual workflow burdens. Finally, we discuss plans to fine-tune and further develop our automated workflows for truly distributed job orchestration to increase computational efficiency, as well as provide an outlook for broadening applications of the ensembles.

Cluster computing↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing Decadal Predictability in an Earth-System Model Using Explainable Neural Networks

We show that explainable neural networks can identify regions of oceanic variability that contribute predictability on decadal timescales in a fully coupled Earth-system model. The neural networks learn to use sea-surface temperature anomalies to predict future continental surface temperature anomalies. We then use a neural-network explainability method called layerwise relevance propagation to infer which oceanic patterns lead to accurate predictions made by the neural networks. In particular, regions within the North Atlantic Ocean and North Pacific Ocean lend the most predictability for surface temperature across continental North America. We apply the proposed methodology to decadal variability, although the concept is generalizable to other timescales of predictability. Furthermore, while our approach focuses on predictable patterns of internal variability within climate models, it should be generalizable to observational data as well. Our study contributes to the growing evidence that explainable neural networks are important tools for advancing geoscientific knowledge.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A mathematical framework for ejecta cloud dynamics with application to source models and piezoelectric mass measurements

We present a mathematical framework for describing the dynamical evolution of an ejecta cloud generated by a generic ejecta source model. We consider a piezoelectric sensor fielded in the path of an ejecta cloud, for experimental configurations in which the ejecta are created at a singly shocked planar surface and fly ballistically through vacuum to the stationary sensor. To do so, we introduce the concept of a time- and velocity-dependent ejecta “areal mass function.” We derive expressions for the analytic (“true”) accumulated ejecta areal mass at the sensor and the measured (“inferred”) value obtained via the standard method for analyzing piezoelectric voltages. In this way, we derive an exact expression and upper bound for the error imposed upon a piezoelectric ejecta mass measurement (in a perfect system) by the assumption of instantaneous creation, which is commonly required for momentum diagnostic analyses. This error term is zero for truly instantaneous source models; otherwise, the standard piezoelectric analysis is guaranteed to overestimate the true mass. When combined with a piezoelectric dataset, this framework provides a unique solution for the ejecta particle velocity distribution, subject to the assumptions inherent in the data analysis. The framework also leads to strong boundary conditions that any ejecta source model must satisfy in order to be consistent with apparently global properties of piezoelectric measurements from a wide range of experiments. We demonstrate this methodology by applying it to the Richtmyer–Meshkov instability+self-similar velocity distribution ejecta source model currently under development at Los Alamos National Laboratory.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Crustal and uppermost mantle structure near the Gloria Fault, North Atlantic, from ocean bottom seismometer surface wave observations

SUMMARY In this work, we present both 1-D and 3-D shear wave velocity (Vs) models of the oceanic crust and uppermost mantle below the Deep OCean Test ARray area, located ∼ 70 km north of the central section of the Gloria Fault, in the eastern North-Atlantic Ocean. The velocity models are inferred from the dispersion of surface waves recorded on ocean bottom seismometers. Dispersion measurements are obtained from the analysis of ambient seismic noise at short periods (< 14 s) and teleseismic surface waves at long periods (> 14 s) using the two-station method. The 1-D Vs model is inferred from the joint inversion of Rayleigh wave phase velocities and Love wave group and phase velocities. The 3-D tomographic model is obtained by inversion of 2-D Love wave group velocity maps as a function of depth, further constrained by the average of Love wave phase velocities obtained from ambient noise (4–9 s) and the average Rayleigh and Love wave phase velocities calculated from teleseismic data (14–44 s). The 1-D Vs model shows a sediment layer with a low velocity of 1.05 km s−1, similar to previous studies in the region. Below the sediments, we find an oceanic crust with velocities ranging from 3.3 to 4.5 km s−1. The model reaches an unusually high velocity of 4.9 km s−1 in a 20 km thick layer at depths between 16 and 36 km. We interpret this fast velocity layer as indicative of the presence of harzburgite, a residue of enhanced melting that might have been formed by the proximity between the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and the Azores mantle plume. At greater depths the velocity decreases, forming a low-velocity zone that reaches a minimum at ∼ 70 km depth, which we interpret as the maximum depth for the lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary. The 3-D model shows a structure that is mostly horizontally layered, with Vs isocontours at 3.5–4.5 km s−1 highlighting oscillations of the crustal structure with wavelengths of ∼25–30 km. These oscillations may be due to changes in the rate of mantle upwelling and magma supply rate.

Pinzón, Juan I. (ORCID:0000000338078068)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian event categorization matrix approach for explosion monitoring

Current efforts to correctly categorize natural events from suspected explosion sources with data that is collected by ground- or space-based sensors presents historical challenges that remain unaddressed by the Event Categorization Matrix (ECM) model. Smaller historical events (lower yield explosions) may have data available from fewer measurement techniques than are available today, and therefore, a historical event record can lack a complete set of discriminants. The covariance structures can also differ between such observations of event (source-type) categories. Both obstacles are problematic for the classic ECM model. Our work addresses this gap and presents a Bayesian update to the previous ECM model, termed the Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix model, which can be trained on partial observations and does not rely on a pooled covariance structure. We further augment the ECM model with Bayesian Decision Theory so that false negative or false positive rates of an event categorization can be reduced in an intuitive manner. To demonstrate improved categorization rates for the Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix model, we compare an array of Bayesian and classic models with multiple performance metrics using Monte Carlo experiments. We use both synthetic and real data. Our Bayesian models show consistent gains in overall accuracy and lower false negative rates relative to the classic ECM model. Here, we propose future avenues to improve Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix models’ decision making and predictive capability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Graph link prediction in computer networks using Poisson matrix factorisation

Graph link prediction is an important task in cybersecurity: relationships between entities within a computer network, such as users interacting with computers or system libraries and the corresponding processes that use them, can provide key insights into adversary behaviour. Poisson matrix factorisation (PMF) is a popular model for link prediction in large networks, particularly useful for its scalability. In this article PMF is extended to include scenarios that are commonly encountered in cybersecurity applications. Specifically, an extension is proposed to explicitly handle binary adjacency matrices and include known categorical covariates associated with the graph nodes. A seasonal PMF model is also presented to handle seasonal networks. To allow the methods to scale to large graphs, variational methods are discussed for performing fast inference. The results show an improved performance over the standard PMF model and other statistical network models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

New machine learning techniques for simulation-based inference: InferoStatic nets, kernel score estimation, and kernel likelihood ratio estimation

We propose an intuitive, machine-learning approach to multiparameter inference, dubbed the InferoStatic Networks (ISN) method, to model the score and likelihood ratio estimators in cases when the probability density can be sampled but not computed directly. The ISN uses a backend neural network that models a scalar function called the inferostatic potential \varphi φ . In addition, we introduce new strategies, respectively called Kernel Score Estimation (KSE) and Kernel Likelihood Ratio Estimation (KLRE), to learn the score and the likelihood ratio functions from simulated data. We illustrate the new techniques with some toy examples and compare to existing approaches in the literature. We mention en passant some new loss functions that optimally incorporate latent information from simulations into the training procedure.

Kong, Kyoungchul↗
DOE OSTI2023

Codebase release 0.1 for infstat

We propose an intuitive, machine-learning approach to multiparameter inference, dubbed the InferoStatic Networks (ISN) method, to model the score and likelihood ratio estimators in cases when the probability density can be sampled but not computed directly. The ISN uses a backend neural network that models a scalar function called the inferostatic potential \varphi φ . In addition, we introduce new strategies, respectively called Kernel Score Estimation (KSE) and Kernel Likelihood Ratio Estimation (KLRE), to learn the score and the likelihood ratio functions from simulated data. We illustrate the new techniques with some toy examples and compare to existing approaches in the literature. We mention en passant some new loss functions that optimally incorporate latent information from simulations into the training procedure.

Kong, Kyoungchul↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulating the CMS High Granularity Calorimeter with ML

Detector simulation is a key component of physics analysis and related activities in CMS. In the upcoming High Luminosity LHC era, simulation will be required to use a smaller fraction of computing in order to satisfy resource constraints. At the same time, CMS will be upgraded with the new High Granularity Calorimeter (HGCal), which requires significantly more resources to simulate than the existing CMS calorimeters. This computing challenge motivates the use of generative machine learning models as surrogates to replace full physics-based simulation. We study the application of state-of-the-art diffusion models to simulate particle showers in the CMS HGCal. We will discuss methods to overcome the challenges posed by the high-dimensional, irregular geometry of the HGCal. The quality of the showers produced by the diffusion model will be assessed by comparison to the full GEANT4-based simulation. The increase in simulation throughput will be quantified and methods to accelerate the diffusion model inference will also be discussed.

Amram, Oz↗
DOE OSTI2024

Application of Modified Meshgraphnets for Subsurface Prediction during CO2 Sequestration

In the face of the increasingly dire consequences of anthropogenic climate change, capturing and storing carbon dioxide is paramount. However, several impediments exist to the safe and effective subsurface storage of CO2, such as cost of transport, identification of suitable sites for subsurface storage, and assessment of long-term risk from storage in subsurface aquifers. Accurate subsurface modeling is necessary to ensure that CO2 storage is both safe and effective. Still, such modeling has traditionally required either substantial time and computational power (numerical simulation) or a substantial amount of pre-existing data for training (machine learning models). Additionally, these models lack flexibility in dealing with both changes in discretization of the input data and generalizability beyond the data on which they are trained. In order to address these issues, this research applies graph neural networks (GNNs) to predict subsurface saturation and pressure during CO₂ injection in a model of the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project (IBDP). GNNs provide a flexible, intuitive method for representing and manipulating complex unstructured data, which is often found in many practical domain problems such as fluid flow and subsurface characterization. These unstructured grids are easily represented in GNNs by representing spatially-localized features such as permeability, porosity, saturation, and pressure as nodes in a graph and relationships between these properties as edges connecting these nodes. This research applies a specific GNN model called MeshGraphNets (MGN) to model the change in CO2 saturation and pressure over a 50-month time period (36 months of injection, 14 months post-injection). The MGN model leverages a message passing process that allows the network to learn both the spatial and temporal dynamics of this system simultaneously. Additionally, training on a limited dataset (64 realizations, 20 time points each) resulted in a high degree of accuracy in saturation prediction both within the same timeframe as the training (20 months, 0.039 average RMSE) and when projecting out to the end of injection (36 months, 0.053 average RMSE). Temporal predictions such as those generated by MGNs and other similar models are prone to accumulated error over time; in order to address this, a multi-step rollout (MSR) training process was applied to calculate training loss. This method mimics the forward prediction during inference by “rolling out” multiple time points in a single training step using the previous prediction as input to the MGN model. By calculating the loss several time steps forward from the current prediction, the model is forced to find a more stable state over time. Application of MSR to the MGN model resulted in an average 15% reduction in inference error over time during forward prediction. This study showcases the immense potential of GNNs as a game-changing methodology for predicting pressure and saturation evolution in CCS projects, ultimately paving the way for more sustainable and effective carbon storage solutions. Presentation prepared for the 2024 AiChE Annual Meeting, October 27 to November 1 2024, San Diego, CA.

Holcomb, Paul↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measuring Black Hole Light Echoes with Very Long Baseline Interferometry

Light passing near a black hole can follow multiple paths from an emission source to an observer due to strong gravitational lensing. Photons following different paths take different amounts of time to reach the observer, which produces an echo signature in the image. The characteristic echo delay is determined primarily by the mass of the black hole, but it is also influenced by the black hole spin and inclination to the observer. In the Kerr geometry, echo images are demagnified, rotated, and sheared copies of the direct image and lie within a restricted region of the image. Echo images have exponentially suppressed flux, and temporal correlations within the flow make it challenging to directly detect light echoes from the total light curve. In this Letter, we propose a novel method to search for light echoes by correlating the total light curve with the interferometric signal at high spatial frequencies, which is a proxy for indirect emission. We explore the viability of our method using numerical general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations of a near-face-on accretion system scaled to M87-like parameters. We demonstrate that our method can be used to directly infer the echo delay period in simulated data. An echo detection would be clear evidence that we have captured photons that have circled the black hole, and a high-fidelity echo measurement would provide an independent measure of fundamental black hole parameters. Our results suggest that detecting echoes may be achievable through interferometric observations with a modest space-based very long baseline interferometry mission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Producing High-fidelity Synthetic Population Ensembles at Scale

Used within social simulations, synthetic population ensembles enable uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for obtaining more robust model inference and prediction. A synthetic population ensemble is a series of plausible virtual reconstructions of an area’s population at the granularity of people and residences, generated stochastically to preserve privacy of the source population survey’s respondents. In this paper, we demonstrate the production of large synthetic population ensembles for the US via Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s UrbanPop framework to support modeling of high spatial resolution energy affordability metrics from nationwide social surveys in collaboration with the fusionACS project. Our initial task involves creating ensembles for 17 US metropolitan areas, each consisting of 41 population instances (a base realization and 40 replicates). To accomplish this task at scale, we configured an integrated system comprised of a research cloud, virtual containerization, GPU-enhanced functionality, and a dual API/CLI to interact with UrbanPop’s maturing Likeness Python ecosystem. We observe a reduction in theoretical execution time while maintaining high-fidelity approximations of residential totals by metropolitan area and the demographic characteristics of neighborhoods. We discuss expansion of our approach to produce synthetic population ensembles for the entire US, particularly plans to establish automated workflows for job orchestration to increase computational efficiency, as well as provide outlook for broadening applications of the ensembles.

Gaboardi, James [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000247766826)↗
NASA NTRS1973

The doublet-ratio method and interstellar abundances.

The method of doublet ratios, used in obtaining interstellar Na I and Ca II abundances, is generalized to include realistic multiple-cloud cases. Entirely apart from any errors of observation, the simplified velocity distribution used in the method leads to errors in the inferred column densities which are systematic and which can be as large as a factor of ten or more in some practical cases. The D lines of Na I toward zeta Oph illustrate such order-of-magnitude underestimates.

Nachman, P.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Method for estimating crack-extension resistance curve from residual strength data

A method is presented for estimating the crack extension resistance curve (R curve) from residual strength (maximum load against initial crack length) data for precracked fracture specimens. The method allows additional information to be inferred from simple test results, and that information is used to estimate the failure loads of more complicated structures. Numerical differentiation of the residual strength data is required, and the problems that it may present are discussed.

Orange, T. W.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Remote sensing of high-latitude ionization profiles by ground-based and spaceborne instrumentation

Ionospheric specification and modeling are now largely based on data provided by active remote sensing with radiowave techniques (ionosondes, incoherent-scatter radars, and satellite beacons). More recently, passive remote sensing techniques have been developed that can be used to monitor quantitatively the spatial distribution of high-latitude E-region ionization. These passive methods depend on the measurement, or inference, of the energy distribution of precipitating kilovolt electrons, the principal source of the nighttime E-region at high latitudes. To validate these techniques, coordinated measurements of the auroral ionosphere have been made with the Chatanika incoherent-scatter radar and a variety of ground-based and spaceborne sensors

Vondrak, R. R.↗