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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

Dealing with Ion LET Uncertainties: An Application of Generalized Linear Models

Although most SEE rate estimation methods presume a fit to SEE cross section vs. LET, fitting SEE data is challenging because the data are not compatible with the assumptions of many common fitting techniques (e.g. linear regression. The difficulty of fitting such data is compounded when the LET of the ion responsible for an SEE is uncertain. We modify a Generalized Linear Model SEE data fitting methodology to accommodate uncertain LET and apply the method to the problem of backside heavy-ion SEE testing to demonstrate the utility of the method, explore the dependence of systematic errors that arise from improper treatment of LET uncertainty and develop guidelines for minimizing such systematic errors when proper treatment is not possible. Additional applications are suggested and assessed for suitability of treatment by the model.

Single-event effects↗
NASA NTRS2017

Weather Impact on Airport Arrival Meter Fix Throughput

Time-based flow management provides arrival aircraft schedules based on arrival airport conditions, airport capacity, required spacing, and weather conditions. In order to meet a scheduled time at which arrival aircraft can cross an airport arrival meter fix prior to entering the airport terminal airspace, air traffic controllers make regulations on air traffic. Severe weather may create an airport arrival bottleneck if one or more of airport arrival meter fixes are partially or completely blocked by the weather and the arrival demand has not been reduced accordingly. Under these conditions, aircraft are frequently being put in holding patterns until they can be rerouted. A model that predicts the weather impacted meter fix throughput may help air traffic controllers direct arrival flows into the airport more efficiently, minimizing arrival meter fix congestion. This paper presents an analysis of air traffic flows across arrival meter fixes at the Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR). Several scenarios of weather impacted EWR arrival fix flows are described. Furthermore, multiple linear regression and regression tree ensemble learning approaches for translating multiple sector Weather Impacted Traffic Indexes (WITI) to EWR arrival meter fix throughputs are examined. These weather translation models are developed and validated using the EWR arrival flight and weather data for the period of April-September in 2014. This study also compares the performance of the regression tree ensemble with traditional multiple linear regression models for estimating the weather impacted throughputs at each of the EWR arrival meter fixes. For all meter fixes investigated, the results from the regression tree ensemble weather translation models show a stronger correlation between model outputs and observed meter fix throughputs than that produced from multiple linear regression method.

Machine Learning Model.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven linear time advance operators for the acceleration of plasma physics simulation

In this study, we demonstrate the application of data-driven linear operator construction for time advance with a goal of accelerating plasma physics simulation. We apply dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) to data produced by the nonlinear SOLPS-ITER (Scrape-off Layer Plasma Simulator - International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) plasma boundary code suite in order to estimate a series of linear operators and monitor their predictive accuracy via online error analysis. We find that this approach defines when these dynamics can be represented by a sequence of approximate linear operators and is essential for providing consistent projections when compared to an unconstrained application. For linear diffusion and advection–diffusion fluid test problems, we construct and apply operators within explicit and implicit time advance schemes, demonstrating that stability can be robustly guaranteed in each case. We further investigate the use of the linear time advance operators within several integration methods including forward Euler, backward Euler, and the matrix exponential. The application of this method to simulation data from SOLPS-ITER, with varying levels of Markov chain Monte Carlo numerical noise, shows that constrained DMD operators yield a capability to identify, extract, and integrate a (slow) subset of the present timescales. Example applications show that for projected speedup factors of [Formula: see text], and [Formula: see text], a mean relative error of 3%, 5%, and 8% and maximum relative error less than 20% are achievable, which appears acceptable for typical SOLPS-ITER steady-state simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1987

Applicability of linearized-theory attached-flow methods to design and analysis of flap systems at low speeds for thin swept wings with sharp leading edges

Low-speed experimental force and data on a series of thin swept wings with sharp leading edges and leading and trailing-edge flaps are compared with predictions made using a linearized-theory method which includes estimates of vortex forces. These comparisons were made to assess the effectiveness of linearized-theory methods for use in the design and analysis of flap systems in subsonic flow. Results demonstrate that linearized-theory, attached-flow methods (with approximate representation of vortex forces) can form the basis of a rational system for flap design and analysis. Even attached-flow methods that do not take vortex forces into account can be used for the selection of optimized flap-system geometry, but design-point performance levels tend to be underestimated unless vortex forces are included. Illustrative examples of the use of these methods in the design of efficient low-speed flap systems are included.

Carlson, Harry W.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Mechanical System Reliability and Cost Integration Using a Sequential Linear Approximation Method

The development of new products is dependent on product designs that incorporate high levels of reliability along with a design that meets predetermined levels of system cost. Additional constraints on the product include explicit and implicit performance requirements. Existing reliability and cost prediction methods result in no direct linkage between variables affecting these two dominant product attributes. A methodology to integrate reliability and cost estimates using a sequential linear approximation method is proposed. The sequential linear approximation method utilizes probability of failure sensitivities determined from probabilistic reliability methods as well a manufacturing cost sensitivities. The application of the sequential linear approximation method to a mechanical system is demonstrated.

Kowal, Michael T.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Personalized and uncertainty-aware coronary hemodynamics simulations: From Bayesian estimation to improved multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification

Non-invasive simulations of coronary hemodynamics have improved clinical risk stratification and treatment outcomes for coronary artery disease, compared to relying on anatomical imaging alone. However, simulations typically use empirical approaches to distribute total coronary flow amongst the arteries in the coronary tree, which ignores patient variability, the presence of disease, and other clinical factors. Further, uncertainty in the clinical data often remains unaccounted for in the modeling pipeline. We present an end-to-end uncertainty-aware pipeline to (1) personalize coronary flow simulations by incorporating vessel-specific coronary flows as well as cardiac function; and (2) predict clinical and biomechanical quantities of interest with improved precision, while accounting for uncertainty in the clinical data. We assimilate patient-specific measurements of myocardial blood flow from clinical CT myocardial perfusion imaging to estimate branch-specific coronary artery flows. Simulated noise in the clinical data is used to estimate the joint posterior distributions of the model parameters using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Additionally, the posterior predictive distribution for the relevant quantities of interest is determined using a new approach combining multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation with non-linear, data-driven dimensionality reduction. This leads to improved correlations between high- and low-fidelity model outputs. Our framework accurately recapitulates clinically measured cardiac function as well as branch-specific coronary flows under measurement noise uncertainty. We observe substantial reductions in confidence intervals for estimated quantities of interest compared to single-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation and state-of-the-art multi-fidelity Monte Carlo methods. This holds especially true for quantities of interest that showed limited correlation between the low- and high-fidelity model predictions. In addition, the proposed multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimators are significantly cheaper to compute than traditional estimators, under a specified confidence level or variance. The proposed pipeline for personalized and uncertainty-aware predictions of coronary hemodynamics is based on routine clinical measurements and recently developed techniques for CT myocardial perfusion imaging. The proposed pipeline offers significant improvements in precision and reduction in computational cost.

Bayesian parameter estimation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probing Signal-Based Inertia and Frequency Response Estimation for Power Systems With High Levels of Inverter-Based Resources

Power system inertia is the inherent capability of a power system to resist changes in its frequency during disturbances. Real-time inertia estimation technology has become more important due to the low-inertia issues caused by the increasing integration levels of inverter-based resources (IBRs) from renewable energy; however, existing inertia estimation methods hardly consider multiple frequency response controls that act within the same time frame as conventional inertial response, thus making measured inertia values vary under different testing conditions. To resolve this issue, this paper proposes a novel real-time estimation method to simultaneously estimate a power system's inertia constant and frequency response droop constant using a well-designed probing signal. First, we formulate the inertia and frequency response model of a power system with IBRs. Second, through the integration and manipulation of the developed model, we propose a multivariate linear regression-based estimation method that is resilient to measurement noise. Third, we design a probing signal that can be injected by IBRs to incite the required transients for estimation. Finally, we validate the proposed estimation method through comprehensive power-hardware-in-the-loop experiments using inverter hardware and a realistic island power system model. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can accurately estimate the inertia and droop value of the power system with grid-following IBRs and grid-forming IBRs with virtual synchronous machine control.

frequency response↗
NASA NTRS1975

A numerical method for the prediction of high-speed boundary-layer transition using linear theory

A method is described of estimating the location of transition in an arbitrary laminar boundary layer on the basis of linear stability theory. After an examination of experimental evidence for the relation between linear stability theory and transition, a discussion is given of the three essential elements of a transition calculation: (1) the interaction of the external disturbances with the boundary layer; (2) the growth of the disturbances in the boundary layer; and (3) a transition criterion. The computer program which carried out these three calculations is described. The program is first tested by calculating the effect of free-stream turbulence on the transition of the Blasius boundary layer, and is then applied to the problem of transition in a supersonic wind tunnel. The effects of unit Reynolds number and Mach number on the transition of an insulated flat-plate boundary layer are calculated on the basis of experimental data on the intensity and spectrum of free-stream disturbances. Reasonable agreement with experiment is obtained in the Mach number range from 2 to 4.5.

Mack, L. M.↗
NASA NTRS1987

An analytical and experimental investigation of output feedback vs. linear quadratic regulator

This paper presents analytical and experimental comparison of three control laws for a laboratory structure designed to simulate large space structures. The first control law is the standard time invariant linear quadratic regulator with state estimation, which requires model reduction for practical implementation. This model reduction is associated with the so-called spillover instability. Two new simple direct output feedback control laws guaranteeing stability are proposed. One minimizes the maximum control force, and the other minimizes the same quadratic performance index as the linear quadratic regulator. The three control laws are found to give comparable performance for the modes retained in the reduced model. However, the standard linear quadratic regulator with state estimation provides almost no margin of stability for the unmodeled modes, while the simpler direct feedback laws provide significant stability margins to all modes. The analytical results were verified experimentally using a digital implementation of the control laws. Good agreement between the analytical predictions and experimental measurements was observed.

Martinovic, Zoran N.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Predictive control and estimation algorithms for the NASA/JPL Deep Space Network antennas

A modified output prediction procedure, and a new controller design based on the predictive control law are presented. Also, the predictive estimator is developed to complement the controller, and to enhance the system performance. The predictive controller was designed and applied to the tracking control of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) 70-m antenna. Simulation results show significant improvement in tracking performance over the linear quadratic controller and estimator presently in use.

Gawronski, W.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Distance-dependent dielectric constant at the calcite/electrolyte interface: Implication for surface complexation modeling

Hypothesis: The electrical double layer formed at the mineral/electrolyte interface is often modeled using mean-field approaches based on a continuum description of the solvent whose dielectric constant is assumed to decrease monotonically with decreasing distance to the surface. In contrast, molecular simulations show that the solvent polarizability oscillates near the surface similar to the water density profile - as shown previously, for example, by Bonthuis et al. (D.J. Bonthuis, S. Gekle, R.R. Netz, Dielectric Profile of Interfacial Water and its Effect on Double-Layer Capacitance, Phys Rev Lett 107(16) (2011) 166102). Here, we showed that molecular and mesoscale pictures agree by spatially averaging the dielectric constant obtained from molecular dynamics simulations over the distances relevant to the mean-field representation. In addition, the values of capacitances used to describe the electrical double layer in Surface Complexation Models (SCMs) of the mineral/electrolyte interface can be estimated using molecularly informed spatially averaged dielectric constants and positions of hydration layers. Experiments: First, we used molecular dynamics simulations to model the calcite 101¯4/electrolyte interface. Next, by using atomistic trajectories, we calculated the distance-dependent static dielectric constant and water density in the direction normal to the. Finally, we applied spatial compartmentalization consistent with the model of parallel-plate capacitors connected in series to estimate SCM capacitances. Findings: Computationally expensive simulations are required to determine the dielectric constant profile of interfacial water near the mineral surface. On the other hand, water density profiles are readily assessable from much shorter simulation trajectories. Our simulations confirmed that dielectric and water density oscillations at the interface are correlated. Here, we parametrized linear regression models to estimate the dielectric constant directly from the local water density. This is a significant computational shortcut compared to slowly converging calculations relying on total dipole moment fluctuations. The amplitude of the interfacial dielectric constant oscillation can exceed the dielectric constant of the bulk water, suggesting an ice-like frozen state, but only if there are no electrolyte ions. The interfacial accumulation of electrolyte ions causes a decrease in the dielectric constant due to the reduction of water density and re-orientation of water dipoles in ion hydration shells. Finally, we show how to use the computed dielectric properties to estimate SCM's capacitances.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Irradiation-induced grain boundary migration in an ion irradiated Fe-Ni-Cr-Mn alloy

Irradiation-induced grain boundary migration (RIGM) has previously been observed in different metallic systems. However, the mechanisms and dependence on irradiation conditions remained unclear. Here, we report on radiation-induced GB migration (RIGM) in a coarse-grain Fe-Ni-Cr-Mn austenitic alloy irradiated with Fe ions at 400 °C to 15, 35, and 70 dpa. Grain boundary migration is only observed in the irradiated regions and exhibits a linear dependence on the locally delivered dose, as estimated from SRIM calculations. Notably, the same linear dependence is noted across the nominal doses. Furthermore, the evidence points to grain boundary migration being mediated by the flux of point defects to grain boundaries and motivates additional systematic studies of RIGM in these systems.

Grain boundary↗
NASA NTRS1999

Fatigue Life Estimation under Cumulative Cyclic Loading Conditions

The cumulative fatigue behavior of a cobalt-base superalloy, Haynes 188 was investigated at 760 C in air. Initially strain-controlled tests were conducted on solid cylindrical gauge section specimens of Haynes 188 under fully-reversed, tensile and compressive mean strain-controlled fatigue tests. Fatigue data from these tests were used to establish the baseline fatigue behavior of the alloy with 1) a total strain range type fatigue life relation and 2) the Smith-Wastson-Topper (SWT) parameter. Subsequently, two load-level multi-block fatigue tests were conducted on similar specimens of Haynes 188 at the same temperature. Fatigue lives of the multi-block tests were estimated with 1) the Linear Damage Rule (LDR) and 2) the nonlinear Damage Curve Approach (DCA) both with and without the consideration of mean stresses generated during the cumulative fatigue tests. Fatigue life predictions by the nonlinear DCA were much closer to the experimentally observed lives than those obtained by the LDR. In the presence of mean stresses, the SWT parameter estimated the fatigue lives more accurately under tensile conditions than under compressive conditions.

Kalluri, Sreeramesh↗
NASA NTRS2010

Tool for Forecasting Cool-Season Peak Winds Across Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily morning forecast for ground and space launch operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) must issue forecast advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect peak gusts for >= 25, >= 35, and >= 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. In Phase I of this task, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a cool-season (October - April) tool to help forecast the non-convective peak wind from the surface to 300 ft at KSC/CCAFS. During the warm season, these wind speeds are rarely exceeded except during convective winds or under the influence of tropical cyclones, for which other techniques are already in use. The tool used single and multiple linear regression equations to predict the peak wind from the morning sounding. The forecaster manually entered several observed sounding parameters into a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI), and then the tool displayed the forecast peak wind speed, average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, the timing of the peak wind and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed 35, 50 and 60 kt. The 45 WS customers later dropped the requirement for >= 60 kt wind warnings. During Phase II of this task, the AMU expanded the period of record (POR) by six years to increase the number of observations used to create the forecast equations. A large number of possible predictors were evaluated from archived soundings, including inversion depth and strength, low-level wind shear, mixing height, temperature lapse rate and winds from the surface to 3000 ft. Each day in the POR was stratified in a number of ways, such as by low-level wind direction, synoptic weather pattern, precipitation and Bulk Richardson number. The most accurate Phase II equations were then selected for an independent verification. The Phase I and II forecast methods were compared using an independent verification data set. The two methods were compared to climatology, wind warnings and advisories issued by the 45 WS, and North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) forecast winds. The performance of the Phase I and II methods were similar with respect to mean absolute error. Since the Phase I data were not stratified by precipitation, this method's peak wind forecasts had a large negative bias on days with precipitation and a small positive bias on days with no precipitation. Overall, the climatology methods performed the worst while the MesoNAM performed the best. Since the MesoNAM winds were the most accurate in the comparison, the final version of the tool was based on the MesoNAM winds. The probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the warning thresholds were based on the one standard deviation error bars from the linear regression. For example, the linear regression might forecast the most likely peak speed to be 35 kt and the error bars used to calculate that the probability of >= 25 kt = 76%, the probability of >= 35 kt = 50%, and the probability of >= 50 kt = 19%. The authors have not seen this application of linear regression error bars in any other meteorological applications. Although probability forecast tools should usually be developed with logistic regression, this technique could be easily generalized to any linear regression forecast tool to estimate the probability of exceeding any desired threshold . This could be useful for previously developed linear regression forecast tools or new forecast applications where statistical analysis software to perform logistic regression is not available. The tool was delivered in two formats - a Microsoft Excel GUI and a Tool Command Language/Tool Kit (Tcl/Tk) GUI in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The Microsoft Excel GUI reads a MesoNAM text file containing hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours, from one model run (00 or 12 UTC). The GUI then displays e peak wind speed, average wind speed, and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the 25-, 35- and 50-kt thresholds. The user can display the Day-1 through Day-3 peak wind forecasts, and separate forecasts are made for precipitation and non-precipitation days. The MIDDS GUI uses data from the NAM and Global Forecast System (GFS), instead of the MesoNAM. It can display Day-1 and Day-2 forecasts using NAM data, and Day-1 through Day-5 forecasts using GFS data. The timing of the peak wind is not displayed, since the independent verification showed that none of the forecast methods performed significantly better than climatology. The forecaster should use the climatological timing of the peak wind (2248 UTC) as a first guess and then adjust it based on the movement of weather features.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗
NASA NTRS1978

Adaptive finite element analysis based on p-convergence

The results of numerical experiments are presented in which a posteriori estimators of error in strain energy were examined on the basis of a typical problem in linear elastic fracture mechanics. Two estimators were found to give close upper and lower bounds for the strain energy error. The potential significance of this is that the same estimators may provide a suitable basis for adaptive redistribution of the degrees of freedom in finite element models.

Szabo, B. A.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Bearing Fault Detection and Wear Estimation Using Machine Learning

Unpredicted bearings failures can be costly and dangerous. Current methods have been examining the use of machine learning algorithms to automatically detect bearing faults. Vibration specialists must react daily, as the sheer number of bearings and the machines they operate are critical and any downtime will result in loss of productivity and endanger personal. The method presented in this paper utilizes a novel approach to detect and determine bearings fault diameters. The detection algorithm uses the cubic support vector machine (SVM) for high accuracy inner and outer race fault detection. After detecting the type of fault, the data is then passed through a second layer that uses a modified K-means clustering and a linear interpolation to accurately estimate the diameter of the fault that was detected.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1990

Computer-aided-analysis of linear control system robustness

Stochastic robustness is a simple technique used to estimate the stability and performance robustness of linear, time-invariant systems. The use of high-speed graphics workstations and control system design software in stochastic robustness analysis is discussed and demonstrated. It is shown that stochastic robustness makes good use of modern computational and graphic tools, and it is easily implemented using commercial control system design and analysis software.

Stengel, Robert F.↗