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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning informed rational design of high entropy double perovskite oxide universal air/steam electrodes for solid oxide electrochemical cells

Due to their high efficiency and versatility, solid oxide electrochemical cells (SOCs) are poised to play a significant role in future energy conversion and storage applications. In recent years, SOCs have bifurcated into two distinct categories: traditional oxygen-ion conducting SOCs that typically operate from ∼650—850 °C and the more recent proton-conducting ceramic (PCC) SOCs that typically operate from ∼400—650 °C. Current performance and lifetime of both oxygen-ion conducting SOCs and PCCs is primarily limited by the air/steam electrode, which facilitates the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) during fuel cell operation and must also facilitate the oxygen evolution reaction (OER) during electrolysis operation. Here, we present a newly designed high-entropy double perovskite oxide suitable as a universal ORR/OER electrode for both oxygen-ion conducting SOCs and PCCs. Machine learning methods are applied to identify chemical descriptors for highly catalytic high-entropy double perovskite oxides (AA’B 2 O 6 ) across a large compositional space. Based on the machine-learning guidance, we ultimately converge on Ba 0.9 Cs 0.1 (Ca 0.2 Gd 0.2 La 0.2 Pr 0.2 Sr 0.2 )Co 1.5 Fe 0.5 O 6 (CsBaHEO) as a universal air/steam electrode. Structure stabilization is accomplished by an equimolar five-cation high-entropy composition on the A’-site, while cesium substitution on the A-site enhances the electrical conductivity and leads to a higher oxygen vacancy concentration. This material exhibits versatility and high performance in reversible oxygen-ion SOCs, reversible PCCs, and also large-scale tubular PCCs. For example, the CsBaHEO-based PCC reaches 1018 mW∙cm −2 at 600°C, while a large-scale tubular PCC using CsBaHEO for electrolysis achieves a hydrogen production rate of 21.314 ML∙min −1 at 600 °C.

Cell↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatial‐Uniformity–Driven Bayesian Optimization for Rapid Development of Printed Perovskite Solar Cells

Printed metal halide perovskites can enable rapid, roll-to-roll manufacturing of a broad class of optoelectronics—flexible solar cells and imagers among them—while promising cost and speed advantages over incumbent silicon. However, though current methods offer high throughput and patterning capabilities, perovskite films’ spatial heterogeneity remains a challenge for large-area devices. Here, a spatial-uniformity-driven Bayesian optimization (BO) approach is leveraged to accelerate the development of printed perovskite solar cells and improve large-area device performance. Using a BO surrogate model, a 6D design space of ink chemistry and printing physics is explored via extensive iterative experimentation (≈100) informed by an objective function capturing spatial photoluminescence (PL) variance. It is discovered that optimizing for uniformity drives rapid advances in photovoltaic performance, yielding ≈20% power conversion efficiency (PCE) for small area (0.134 cm 2 ) devices and > 16% for large area (1 cm 2 ) devices. This machine-learning approach simultaneously enables rheological comparison of ink formulations that accelerate the leveling of Saffman-Taylor artifacts and improve film uniformity. Here, this showcases uniformity-driven BO as an efficient approach for uncovering the key printing physics and mitigating spatial heterogeneity to enable device scaling beyond small cell areas.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A systematic analysis of phase stability in refractory high entropy alloys utilizing linear and non-linear cluster expansion models

We report that obtaining surrogate models for various types of materials has long been a goal of computational material scientists and physicists, as they allow the calculation of thermodynamic quantities and properties of interest far more efficiently than DFT. Many surrogate models, including interatomic potentials generated by machine learning algorthims and cluster expansions, rely on incorporating many-body interactions such as three-body or four-body interactions. When utilizing machine learning algorithms for interatomic potentials, it is common to start with two-body interactions and systematically include three- and four-body clusters to improve the fit, stopping when including the additional clusters does not measurably change the predictive power of the model. In cluster expansions for FCC and related lattices, it is often enough to include mostly two-body interactions and a handful of three-body interactions. However, it remains to be seen whether those will be enough in the case of lattices with a lower packing fraction, such as BCC.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

CASM — A software package for first-principles based study of multicomponent crystalline solids

CASM is a software package that enables first-principles based studies of crystalline materials. It has been designed to treat coupled chemical, mechanical, vibrational, and magnetic degrees of freedom to determine ground state and finite temperature properties of crystals. The symmetry of the underlying parent crystal structure is used to enumerate perturbations of the parent crystal structure and generate derivative structures which can be input to first-principles calculations in order to explore the ground state energy landscape. CASM algorithmically constructs cluster expansions that fully couple discrete and continuous degrees of freedom, and generates highly efficient code to evaluate the cluster expansion basis functions. Widely used machine learning methods are integrated for fitting expansion coefficients to first-principle calculations. The fully parameterized cluster expansions can be combined with (kinetic) Monte Carlo methods to calculate finite temperature thermodynamic and kinetic properties. CASM Alloy Manager identifies distinct parent crystal structures in an alloy system, creating individual projects for each, and integrating the results. The integrated infrastructure facilitates the linkage between first-principles statistical mechanics predictions with higher length scale computational methods, such as phase field simulations. In conclusion, CASM projects are designed to be easy to share in repositories, to re-use, and to extend to include additional chemical species or types of degrees of freedom.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Designing a quantum-accurate machine-learning potential to enable large-scale simulations of deuterium under shock

Large-scale molecular dynamics of deuterium under shock can elucidate kinetic processes vital to the target design in inertial confinement fusion and high-energy-density experiments. However, modeling the complex evolution of this material from an insulating molecular state at ambient pressure to an ionized, atomic fluid under strong shock is beyond the capability of simple pair and even bond order potentials. We thus train a quantum-accurate and broadly transferable machine-learning interatomic potential for deuterium using the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulations framework. We show that due to an improved description of the molecular-to-atomic transition, our model is able to better reproduce the ab initio equation of state, radial distribution functions, and principal Hugoniot than bond order potentials. This represents an important step toward large-scale quantum-accurate and nonequilibrium simulations of complicated systems under dynamic changes including phase transitions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Physics-guided Machine Learning: from Supervised Deep Networks to Unsupervised Lightweight Models [Slides]

Machine learning yields great potentials in improving imaging performance (i.e., accuracy and efficiency). The incorporation of governing equation will improve generalization and alleviate label scarcity. Employ physical properties can reduce model complexity and significantly save training cost without compromising accuracy. Combining SciML imaging and edge computing would allow broader applications in energy, medicine, and other domains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

A New Era of Discovery: The 2023 Long-Range Plan for Nuclear Science (V.1.2)

Nuclear science is the investigation of how protons and neutrons are formed from elementary particles and how the forces between those particles produce both nuclei and the vast variety of nuclear phenomena that occur in the universe. It has evolved into a broad field that addresses profound scientific questions: Where does the mass of visible matter come from? How do stars ignite, live, and die? How do nuclei illuminate the search for new laws of nature? This science points the way to using nuclei to build new technologies that benefit society. The 2015 Nobel Prize in physics was shared by nuclear physicists Art McDonald and Takaaki Kajita for the discovery of neutrino oscillations, which confirmed that neutrinos have mass. Our progress on big questions like this one since 2015 has been remarkable owing to new experimental tools, theoretical breakthroughs, powerful computational techniques, and the talented people who make these innovations possible. Focusing on these new tools, the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB) at Michigan State University is already producing exciting results on decays of never-before-produced isotopes a year after it was completed on time and on budget. The energy upgrade of the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (Jefferson Lab) was also completed on schedule and on budget—new data from this facility are revealing the spectrum, structure, and dynamics of protons, neutrons, nuclei, and mesons. On the theory front, we can now calculate the distribution of quarks inside the proton from first principles. The implementation of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques has led to improved data analysis and increased efficiency in running experiments and theoretical calculations. The impact of nuclear science goes beyond expanding the frontiers of knowledge about matter in the universe. We simultaneously develop a STEM work force that advances the security, technology, health, and wealth of our nation. Some connections are obvious. Expert scientists trained to work with radioactive nuclei are in demand in nuclear security arenas and are highly sought after by various government agencies and private industries. Graduate students and postdoctoral fellows (postdocs) obtain extensive computational, modeling, and data science skills that are similarly in high demand. Less obvious but equally important is the connection between these trained scientists and success in other professions, including medicine, energy, and entrepreneurial pursuits. The workforce that enables discovery in nuclear science also makes breakthroughs in technologies with tremendous impact on the nation’s economic advancement.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Neutrino Final States and Energies in MicroBooNE with New Deep-Learning Based LArTPC Reconstruction Frameworks

MicroBooNE, a Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) located in the $\nu_{\mu}$-dominated Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab, has been studying $\nu_{e}$ charged-current (CC) interaction rates to shed light on the MiniBooNE low energy excess. The LArTPC technology employed by MicroBooNE provides the capability to image neutrino interactions with mm-scale precision. Computer vision and other machine learning techniques are promising tools for image processing that could boost efficiencies for selecting $\nu_{e}$-CC and other rare signals, reduce cosmic and beam-induced backgrounds, and improve the reconstruction of neutrino energies. The MicroBooNE experiment has been at the forefront of developing and testing such techniques for use in physics analyses. In this poster we overview deep-learning based reconstruction methods. We will showcase the use of a recurrent neural network to estimate neutrino energies and present a new reconstruction framework that uses convolutional neural networks to locate neutrino interaction vertices, tag pixels with track and shower labels, and perform particle identification on reconstructed clusters. We will present studies characterizing the performance of these new tools and demonstrate their effectiveness through their use in an inclusive $\nu_{e}$-CC event selection.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Non-Intrusive Parallel-in-Time Solvers for Partial Differential Equations (Final Report)

Many time-dependent problems and simulations are often modeled using Partial Differential Equations. Traditional modeling approaches that use sequential time-stepping are reaching a bottleneck in optimizing efficiency. The Center of Applied Science and Computing at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory extensively works on parallelizing these algorithms to leverage the increasing computational power from the growing number of processors in computer hardware. In particular, they aim to design non-intrusive algorithms that can generalize to a variety of problems and sizes without requiring additional information from or modifications on the original problems. Multigrid Reduction in Time (MGRIT) is a parallel-in-time algorithm that is designed to be non-intrusive. This project focuses on increasing the efficiency of MGRIT by approximating the coarse-grid operator using machine learning approaches as a means to find the most non-intrusive, or general, solution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Artificial Intelligence for Data Center Operations (AIOps): Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)

High performance computing data centers will increasingly need to rely on automation to keep pace with exascale growth in compute capability and to manage and optimize the data center environment and facility resources. Artificial intelligence and machine learning approaches provide the means to improve HPC data center operational efficiency, by learning historical trends and training models to operate on real-time data collected from both IT and facilities sources. NREL has developed methods of real-time collection, aggregation and streaming of these data in the ESIF HPC Data Center and has collected a significant dataset of relevant metrics across computer systems, racks, environmental, building and utility sources for research into various predictive analytics problems. HPE's Advanced Technology Group (ATG) is doing comprehensive research into exascale monitoring and management for High Performance Computing (HPC) systems (hereinafter HPE's Data Monitoring/ Management Technology). NREL and HPE will collaborate to add Artificial Intelligence (AI) to NREL's real-time data collection/ aggregation/ streaming system and HPE's Data Monitoring/ Management System, with the goal of improving the operational efficiency of NREL's Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF) HPC Data Center through data analytics on both historical and real-time data from IT systems and facilities operations. This collaboration will consist of efforts in Data Management, Data Analytics, and AI/ML Optimization for both manual and autonomous intervention in data center operations. This will be a multi-year, multi-staged effort with a goal towards building capabilities for an Advanced Smart Facility, and demonstration of these techniques in the NREL ESIF HPC Data Center.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Performance Analysis of an Optimization Algorithm for Metamaterial Design on the Integrated High-Performance Computing and Quantum Systems

Optimizing metamaterials with complex geometries is a big challenge. Although an active learning algorithm, combining machine learning (ML), quantum computing, and optical simulation, has emerged as an efficient optimization tool, it still faces difficulties in optimizing complex structures that have potentially high performance. In this work, we comprehensively analyze the performance of an optimization algorithm for metamaterial design on the integrated HPC and quantum systems. We demonstrate significant time advantages through message-passing interface (MPI) parallelization on the high-performance computing (HPC) system showing approximately 54% faster ML tasks and 67 times faster optical simulation against serial workloads. Furthermore, we analyze the performance of a quantum algorithm designed for optimization, which runs with various quantum simulators on a local computer or HPC-quantum system. Results showcase ~24 times speedup when executing the optimization algorithm on the HPC-quantum hybrid system. This study paves a way to optimize complex metamaterials using the integrated HPC-quantum system.

Kim, Seongmin↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Machine Learning-Assisted Framework to Control Thermally Anisotropic Building Envelopes in Residential Buildings

To curb the energy consumption of buildings and their related CO2 emissions, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has developed the thermally anisotropic building envelope (TABE) —a multi-layer design comprising insulation materials and metal foils connected to thermal loops. In this study, a machine learning-assisted framework was developed to control the TABE in residential buildings to reduce the computation load for future optimal rule-based control and application. First, a 2D finite element model was established in COMSOL to calculate the hourly heat flux through exterior walls installed with the TABE. Then, TABE wall heat fluxes were simulated for various given indoor and outdoor boundary conditions, as well as thermal loops fluid temperatures and flow rates. Since the finite element simulations are computationally expensive, an artificial neural network (ANN) was then trained to use as a proxy of the finite element (COMSOL) modeling. Finally, the trained ANN model was coupled with the EnergyPlus model to predict the energy consumption of a US Department of Energy prototype single-family house installed with the TABE. An optimal simple rule-based control was determined from predefined rules for a case study. The results demonstrate that the developed machine learning–assisted framework can reduce 99.9% of the computation time while efficiently managing residential building energy for installed TABE walls.

Shen, Zhenglai↗
DOE OSTI2024

SUBTASK 1.6 – BASIN ELECTRIC CARBON STORAGE RESEARCH PROJECT: NOVEL MONITORING TECHNIQUES

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) conducted baseline activities associated with an applied research project at Basin Electric Power Cooperative’s (Basin’s) carbon capture and storage (CCS) site in Beulah, North Dakota, to establish novel carbon storage-monitoring techniques as commercial methods under Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233, Subtask 1.6. The following report summarizes the baseline activities performed and briefly describes the subsequent (operational monitoring) activities that have been proposed to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) as part of the overall project to develop and demonstrate novel monitoring techniques at North America’s largest permitted CCS operation. Dakota Gasification Company (DGC), a wholly owned subsidiary of Basin, owns and operates the Great Plains Synfuels Plant (GPSP) approximately 5 miles northwest of the town of Beulah, North Dakota (Figure 1). In 2023, DGC received approval from the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) to develop a storage facility on-site for injecting a stream of carbon dioxide (CO2) captured from GPSP. DGC will transport the captured CO2 stream with approximately 6.8 miles of transmission lines that extend north of GPSP and inject >1 million tonnes (MMt) of CO2 annually (>1 MMt/yr) over a 12-year period with up to six underground injection control (UIC) Class VI-compliant injection wells completed in the Broom Creek Formation, a predominantly sandstone reservoir and saline aquifer underlying GPSP. The Broom Creek Formation lies approximately 5900 feet (ft) below ground surface (bgs) at GPSP. The commercial scale (i.e., >1 MMt/yr) of DGC’s permitted carbon storage project is ideal for developing and testing the novel monitoring techniques included within Subtask 1.6. The goals of this project are to demonstrate 1) the cost-effectiveness of novel monitoring technologies included as part of this research, 2) technology capability for tracking the CO2 plume and/or associated pressure response in the subsurface and monitoring out-of-zone migration, and 3) compliance with UIC Class VI program requirements. The research activities proposed for the overall project include 1) design of an automated, integrated, modular (AIM) monitoring station; 2) time-lapse electromagnetic (EM) field surveys; 3) drone-based surveillance studies; 4) time-lapse monitoring with seismic methods; 5) advanced wellbore-monitoring methods; 6) deployment of an AIM monitoring network; 7) EM monitoring of CO2 with real-time data processing; 8) continued seasonal drone-based surveillance studies; 9) seismic monitoring with passive and active surveys; and 10) wellbore monitoring with nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) for near-surface characterization. Completion of Activities 1.0–5.0 (baseline activities) are described in this report. Upon authorization of funding by DOE, the EERC will initiate Activities 6.0– 10.0 (operational monitoring activities). Current state-of-the-art (SOA) carbon storage-monitoring techniques require countless labor hours dedicated to the acquisition of data. Once data are gathered, these SOA techniques often rely on commercial facilities to process raw data from the field. However, it is anticipated that next-generation monitoring techniques, such as those being demonstrated, will lower acquisition footprints, be less operationally intensive, and improve data acquisition efficiencies. These new techniques are more conducive to the application of machine learning, artificial intelligence, and automation, thus providing a pathway for integration into active control systems, informing site operability, and improving the integration of data for future CCS projects across the United States. Additionally, reclaimed and active mining lands are present within the project site, creating a unique opportunity to demonstrate the effectiveness of remote sensing and surface-based geophysics monitoring techniques at similar project sites that may include disturbed, unconsolidated, or actively excavated near-surface environments. The efforts included in the overall project will produce necessary designs, learnings, and data acquired during the baseline and operational monitoring periods that are necessary for time-lapse demonstration and validation of the described monitoring techniques. In addition, it is anticipated that the monitoring technologies included in this study will be compliant with UIC Class VI requirements to enable the potential for implementation at other CCS sites across the United States.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Neutrino Final States and Energies in MicroBooNE with New Deep-Learning Based LArTPC Reconstruction Frameworks

MicroBooNE, a Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) located in the $\nu_{\mu}$-dominated Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab, has been studying $\nu_{e}$ charged-current (CC) interaction rates to shed light on the MiniBooNE low energy excess. The LArTPC technology employed by MicroBooNE provides the capability to image neutrino interactions with mm-scale precision. Computer vision and other machine learning techniques are promising tools for image processing that could boost efficiencies for selecting $\nu_{e}$-CC and other rare signals, reduce cosmic and beam-induced backgrounds, and improve the reconstruction of neutrino energies. The MicroBooNE experiment has been at the forefront of developing and testing such techniques for use in physics analyses. In this poster we overview deep-learning based reconstruction methods. We will showcase the use of a recurrent neural network to estimate neutrino energies and present a new reconstruction framework that uses convolutional neural networks to locate neutrino interaction vertices, tag pixels with track and shower labels, and perform particle identification on reconstructed clusters. We will present studies characterizing the performance of these new tools and demonstrate their effectiveness through their use in an inclusive $\nu_{e}$-CC event selection.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Trustworthiness and Trust: Identifying Factors that Drive Successful Human-AI Interaction in Nuclear Power Plant Applications

Emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are rapidly evolving and considered a promising tool for efficient and continued safe operations of the U.S. nuclear power plants (NPPs). Emerging AI techniques like large language models (LLMs) are one such technology that may support personnel at existing NPPs perform work more efficiently. For example, operators may query the current operational status of a power plant via a chat interface leveraging LLMs to access plant-related information in an interactive manner rather than manually collecting various sensor data for tasks such as surveillances or completing work orders. This is a fundamental shift in the way operators currently perform their tasks today. The literature of human-automation interaction indicates that trust is a crucial factor that drives successful interaction between a human operator and an automated system, like an AI-infused NPP application. This work presents the results of a literature review on key factors that relate to trust in AI/LLM technologies for NPP applications. The relevant literature of human factors and cognitive engineering has identified various factors related to trust including trustworthiness, performance characteristics, operator skill and perceived risk. This preliminary literature review will guide development and evaluation of models involving the identified factors influencing trust in AI and develop a framework for human-centered design for interface between humans and AI. By addressing trust, this work supports developing a technical basis for designing key characteristics of AI/LLM to support calibrated trust, which will ultimately support wide-scale adoption of AI/LLM technologies, as well as ensure safe, effective, and reliable use.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Baseflow Identification via Explainable AI With Kolmogorov‐Arnold Networks

Abstract Hydrological models often involve constitutive laws that may not be optimal in every application. We propose to replace such laws with the Kolmogorov‐Arnold networks (KANs), a class of neural networks designed to identify symbolic expressions. We demonstrate KAN's potential on the problem of baseflow identification, a notoriously challenging task plagued by significant uncertainty. KAN‐derived functional dependencies of the baseflow components on the aridity index outperform their original counterparts; they demonstrate that water availability, rather than potential evapotranspiration, drives baseflow by constraining actual evapotranspiration under arid conditions. On a test set, they increase the Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) by 65%, decrease the root mean squared error by 29%, and increase the Kling‐Gupta efficiency by 34%. This superior performance is achieved while reducing the number of fitting parameters from three to two. Next, we use data from 378 catchments across the continental United States to refine the water‐balance equation at the mean‐annual scale. The KAN‐derived equations based on the refined water balance outperform both the current aridity index model, with up to a 105% increase in NSE, and the KAN‐derived equations based on the original water balance. While the performance of our model and tree‐based machine learning methods is similar, KANs offer the advantage of simplicity and transparency and require no specific software or computational tools. This case study focuses on the aridity index formulation, but the approach is flexible and transferable to other hydrological processes. Plain Language Summary Equations used in hydrologic model are often suboptimal, resulting in reduced prediction accuracy and efficiency. We implemented Kolmogorov‐Arnold networks (KAN), a machine learning algorithm for deriving symbolic formulations, to estimate groundwater recharge and showed that it outperforms an existing state‐of‐the‐art semi‐empirical formulation. In hydrology, Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and Kling‐Gupta efficiency (KGE) are commonly used to evaluate model performance. Higher NSE and KGE values indicate better performance, while lower RMSE values are preferable. Our results show that NSE increased by 71%, RMSE decreased by 32%, and KGE improved by 25%. In addition, KAN identifies an optimal functional form and can be used to derive new analytical formulas using the prior knowledge. The KAN‐inspired equation outperformed the original formulation and reduced the fitting parameters. Furthermore, we refined the water‐balance equation at the mean‐annual scale and showed that, based on the new water‐balance equation, KAN can derive new formulations that are superior to the original aridity index formulations (up to 105% increase in NSE) and KAN‐derived equations based on the original water balance. These findings highlight the significant potential of KAN to advance the scientific understanding of a wide range of hydrologic processes. Key Points Kolmogorov‐Arnold networks (KANs) enhance interpretability of machine‐learned hydrological models KAN‐derived symbolic formulations outperform state‐of‐the‐art semi‐empirical aridity indices KAN‐identified functional form yields an analytical index with fewer fitting parameters and improved performance

baseflow↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Comparative Study of Machine Learning Algorithms for Industry-Specific Freight Generation Model

According to Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the U.S. transportation system handled 14,329 million ton-miles of freight per day in 2020. Understanding the generation of these freight shipments is crucial for transportation researchers, planners, and policymakers to design and plan for a more efficient and connected freight transportation system. Traditionally, the freight generation modeling has been based on Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression, although more advanced Machine Learning (ML) algorithms have been evaluated and proven to have excellent performance in various transportation applications in recent years. Furthermore, one modeling approach applied for one industry might not always be applicable for another as their freight generation logics can be quite different. The objective of this study is to apply and evaluate alternative ML algorithms in the estimation of freight generation for each of 45 industry types. Seven alternative ML algorithms, along with the base OLS regression, were evaluated and compared. In addition, the study considered different combinations of variables in both the original and logarithmic form as well as hyperparameters of those ML algorithms in the model selection for each industry type. The results showed statistically significant improvements in the root mean square error reduction by the alternative ML algorithms over the OLS for over 80% of cases. The study suggests utilizing the alternative ML algorithms can reduce the root mean square error by about 30%, depending on industry types.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

How Should Machine Learning Be Successfully Used for Wind Speed Vertical Extrapolation?

An accurate characterization of the wind resource available at hub-height is required for an efficient and bankable wind farm project. However, direct measurement of wind speed at the constantly increasing height of the hub of commercial wind turbines is oftentimes challenging and expensive, so that it is common practice to vertically extrapolate the wind resource from lower and more easily accessible levels. Conventional techniques for wind speed vertical extrapolation include the use of a power law and a logarithmic profile. While simple, the limits in accuracy of these methods have been shown in various studies. Recently, machine learning has been proposed as a new method to vertically extrapolate winds. All the published studies on the topic assess the performance of machine learning techniques in vertically extrapolating the wind resource at the same location where the algorithm has been trained. However, in real-world applications, the wind resource is measured at the instrument location, but it then needs to be extrapolated at hub height at the location of the wind turbines within the find farm. To be able to fully recommend the use of machine learning techniques over the simple power law and logarithmic law, the spatial variability of the performance improvements of the machine learning approaches needs to be assessed. Here, we propose a round-robin validation of a machine learning-based method for wind speed extrapolation. We use 20 months of observations at four locations spanning a 100 km wide region at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory, in north-central Oklahoma. At each location, we train a random forest to predict 30-min average wind speed at 143 m AGL. We use as input features lidar wind speed at 65 m AGL, time of day, sonic anemometer wind speed at 4 m AGL, turbulent kinetic energy, and Obukhov length. First, we perform a same-site comparison of the performance of the proposed random forest against the conventional techniques for wind speed extrapolation (namely power law and logarithmic profile, with widely accepted stability corrections). We find that the random forest outperforms the power law in vertically extrapolating wind speed in all the considered stability regimes, with a 33% reduction in MAE for stable conditions, and a 31% reduction in unstable conditions. Similar results are found when comparing predictions of extrapolated winds from the logarithmic profile and the random forest with the observed values. Next, we propose a round-robin validation, to use the random forest trained at each site to extrapolate wind speed at the remaining three sites. We find that the performance of the random forest approach degrades when the algorithm is tested at a site different than the training one. However, even under those circumstances, the machine learning-based approach still outperforms the conventional techniques for wind speed extrapolation, with, on average, a reduction in mean absolute error between 15 and 20% over the conventional methods, with the largest benefits obtained under stable conditions.

Monte Carlo↗