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At least 523 records · Page 29

Simulating the Composite Propellant Manufacturing Process

There is a strategic interest in understanding how the propellant manufacturing process contributes to military capabilities outside the United States. The paper will discuss how system dynamics (SD) has been applied to rapidly assess the capabilities and vulnerabilities of a specific composite propellant production complex. These facilities produce a commonly used solid propellant with military applications. The authors will explain how an SD model can be configured to match a specific production facility followed by a series of scenarios designed to analyze operational vulnerabilities. By using the simulation model to rapidly analyze operational risks, the analyst gains a better understanding of production complexities. There are several benefits of developing SD models to simulate chemical production. SD is an effective tool for characterizing complex problems, especially the production process where the cascading effect of outages quickly taxes common understanding. By programming expert knowledge into an SD application, these tools are transformed into a knowledge management resource that facilitates rapid learning without requiring years of experience in production operations. It also permits the analyst to rapidly respond to crisis situations and other time-sensitive missions. Most importantly, the quantitative understanding gained from applying the SD model lends itself to strategic analysis and planning.

Williamson, Suzanne↗

Relating Satellite-Based Contrail Detection to NWA Output

Contrail-induced cloud cover has been shown to be a significant factor in regional climate change over the United States of America. As air traffic increases, the potential for globally significant impacts also rises. To better understand and predict these potential climatic effects, it is necessary to develop models that can accurately represent contrail properties based on ambient atmospheric variables including temperature, relative humidity and winds. Several high-resolution numerical weather analyses (NWA) including the 20-km Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) and the University of Oklahoma Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) can provide the temperature, humidity and wind information necessary to diagnose contrail formation. One outstanding problem that must be addressed to achieve a realistic simulation of contrails is the large uncertainties in upper tropospheric relative humidity (UTH) in numerical weather analyses. Current numerical weather analyses tend to underestimate UTH due to large dry biases in the balloon soundings used to construct the analyses. To evaluate each of the models, we match several months of contrail properties derived from satellite and surface observations to the NWA-derived humidity, vertical velocity, wind shear and atmospheric stability. The relationships between several contrail properties (including optical depth and areal contrail coverage) and the NWA-derived statistics will be analyzed to determine under which atmospheric conditions widespread contrail outbreaks are favored.

Duda, David P.↗

Transiting Planet Search in the Kepler Pipeline

The Kepler Mission simultaneously measures the brightness of more than 160,000 stars every 29.4 minutes over a 3.5-year mission to search for transiting planets. Detecting transits is a signal-detection problem where the signal of interest is a periodic pulse train and the predominant noise source is non-white, non-stationary (1/f) type process of stellar variability. Many stars also exhibit coherent or quasi-coherent oscillations. The detection algorithm first identifies and removes strong oscillations followed by an adaptive, wavelet-based matched filter. We discuss how we obtain super-resolution detection statistics and the effectiveness of the algorithm for Kepler flight data.

Jenkins, Jon M.↗

Method for Pre-Conditioning a Measured Surface Height Map for Model Validation

This software allows one to up-sample or down-sample a measured surface map for model validation, not only without introducing any re-sampling errors, but also eliminating the existing measurement noise and measurement errors. Because the re-sampling of a surface map is accomplished based on the analytical expressions of Zernike-polynomials and a power spectral density model, such re-sampling does not introduce any aliasing and interpolation errors as is done by the conventional interpolation and FFT-based (fast-Fourier-transform-based) spatial-filtering method. Also, this new method automatically eliminates the measurement noise and other measurement errors such as artificial discontinuity. The developmental cycle of an optical system, such as a space telescope, includes, but is not limited to, the following two steps: (1) deriving requirements or specs on the optical quality of individual optics before they are fabricated through optical modeling and simulations, and (2) validating the optical model using the measured surface height maps after all optics are fabricated. There are a number of computational issues related to model validation, one of which is the "pre-conditioning" or pre-processing of the measured surface maps before using them in a model validation software tool. This software addresses the following issues: (1) up- or down-sampling a measured surface map to match it with the gridded data format of a model validation tool, and (2) eliminating the surface measurement noise or measurement errors such that the resulted surface height map is continuous or smoothly-varying. So far, the preferred method used for re-sampling a surface map is two-dimensional interpolation. The main problem of this method is that the same pixel can take different values when the method of interpolation is changed among the different methods such as the "nearest," "linear," "cubic," and "spline" fitting in Matlab. The conventional, FFT-based spatial filtering method used to eliminate the surface measurement noise or measurement errors can also suffer from aliasing effects. During re-sampling of a surface map, this software preserves the low spatial-frequency characteristic of a given surface map through the use of Zernike-polynomial fit coefficients, and maintains mid- and high-spatial-frequency characteristics of the given surface map by the use of a PSD model derived from the two-dimensional PSD data of the mid- and high-spatial-frequency components of the original surface map. Because this new method creates the new surface map in the desired sampling format from analytical expressions only, it does not encounter any aliasing effects and does not cause any discontinuity in the resultant surface map.

Sidick, Erkin↗

Recent activities within the Aeroservoelasticity Branch at the NASA Langley Research Center

The objective of research in aeroservoelasticity at the NASA Langley Research Center is to enhance the modeling, analysis, and multidisciplinary design methodologies for obtaining multifunction digital control systems for application to flexible flight vehicles. Recent accomplishments are discussed, and a status report on current activities within the Aeroservoelasticity Branch is presented. In the area of modeling, improvements to the Minimum-State Method of approximating unsteady aerodynamics are shown to provide precise, low-order aeroservoelastic models for design and simulation activities. Analytical methods based on Matched Filter Theory and Random Process Theory to provide efficient and direct predictions of the critical gust profile and the time-correlated gust loads for linear structural design considerations are also discussed. Two research projects leading towards improved design methodology are summarized. The first program is developing an integrated structure/control design capability based on hierarchical problem decomposition, multilevel optimization and analytical sensitivities. The second program provides procedures for obtaining low-order, robust digital control laws for aeroelastic applications. In terms of methodology validation and application the current activities associated with the Active Flexible Wing project are reviewed.

Noll, Thomas E.↗

On the method of matched asymptotic expansions

The present evaluation of the method of asymptotic expansions (MAE) indicates that the various terms of the common solution of MAE can be generated as polynomials in stretched variables, without actually solving them from the outer solution, as is currently the practice. It is also noted that the common solution of the MAE and the intermediate solution of the singular-perturbation method are the same; these methods therefore yield identical results for a certain class of problems. Two illustrative problems are treated.

Naidu, D. S.↗

Recent activities within the aeroservoelasticity branch at the NASA Langley Research Center

The objective of research in aeroservoelasticity at the NASA Langley Research Center is to enhance the modeling, analysis, and multidisciplinary design methodologies for obtaining multifunction digital control systems for application to flexible flight vehicles. Recent accomplishments are discussed, and a status report on current activities within the Aeroservoelasticity Branch is presented. In the area of modeling, improvements to the Minimum-State Method of approximating unsteady aerodynamics are shown to provide precise, low-order aeroservoelastic models for design and simulation activities. Analytical methods based on Matched Filter Theory and Random Process Theory to provide efficient and direct predictions of the critical gust profile and the time-correlated gust loads for linear structural design considerations are also discussed. Two research projects leading towards improved design methodology are summarized. The first program is developing an integrated structure/control design capability based on hierarchical problem decomposition, multilevel optimization and analytical sensitivities. The second program provides procedures for obtaining low-order, robust digital control laws for aeroelastic applications. In terms of methodology validation and application the current activities associated with the Active Flexible Wing project are reviewed.

Noll, Thomas↗

The Distribution of Cosmic-Ray Sources in the Galaxy, Gamma-Rays and the Gradient in the CO-to-H2 Relation

We present a solution to the apparent discrepancy between the radial gradient in the diffuse Galactic gamma-ray emissivity and the distribution of supernova remnants, believed to be the sources of cosmic rays. Recent determinations of the pulsar distribution have made the discrepancy even more apparent. The problem is shown to be plausibly solved by a variation in the Wco-to-N(H2) scaling factor. If this factor increases by a factor of 5-10 from the inner to the outer Galaxy, as expected from the Galactic metallicity gradient and supported by other evidence, we show that the source distribution required to match the radial gradient of gamma-rays can be reconciled with the distribution of supernova remnants as traced by current studies of pulsars. The resulting model fits the EGRET gamma-ray profiles extremely well in longitude, and reproduces the mid-latitude inner Galaxy intensities better than previous models.

Strong, A. W.↗

AGCM Biases in Evaporation Regime: Impacts on Soil Moisture Memory and Land-Atmosphere Feedback

Because precipitation and net radiation in an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) are typically biased relative to observations, the simulated evaporative regime of a region may be biased, with consequent negative effects on the AGCM s ability to translate an initialized soil moisture anomaly into an improved seasonal prediction. These potential problems are investigated through extensive offline analyses with the Mosaic land surface model (LSM). We first forced the LSM globally with a 15-year observations-based dataset. We then repeated the simulation after imposing a representative set of GCM climate biases onto the forcings - the observational forcings were scaled so that their mean seasonal cycles matched those simulated by the NSIPP-1 (NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) AGCM over the same period-The AGCM s climate biases do indeed lead to significant biases in evaporative regime in certain regions, with the expected impacts on soil moisture memory timescales. Furthermore, the offline simulations suggest that the biased forcing in the AGCM should contribute to overestimated feedback in certain parts of North America - parts already identified in previous studies as having excessive feedback. The present study thus supports the notion that the reduction of climate biases in the AGCM will lead to more appropriate translations of soil moisture initialization into seasonal prediction skill.

Mahanama, Sarith P. P.↗

Additively Manufactured Plastic Plasma Spectrometer

We report results in development and testing of a low resource top hat electrostatic analyzer (ESA) for space plasma measurements. This device has been additively manufactured (3D-printed) using fused deposition modeling. The classic top hat design is composed of four plastic pieces, without any surface coatings. The three conducting electrodes are printed from carbon nanotube infused polyether ether ketone (CNT-PEEK). The fourth piece, an insulating electrode support, uses pure PEEK. This ESA is designed to detect electrons in space from 10eV up to 30 keV. We demonstrate that the printed CNT-PEEK is sufficiently electrically conductive to support the fast high voltage slewing often required for high time resolution measurements. The plastic ESA has been successfully vibrated beyond standard pre-flight levels, tested under keV electron beam illumination over a wide range of temperatures, and tested under UV illumination, simulating the solar Ly-α flux. In comparison with an identical machined aluminum ESA, our CNT-PEEK ESA provides nominal energy/angle band passes, closely matching simulation. These band passes imply minimal impact from surface charging at beam energies of 2-3 keV, although more investigation is needed. We also find that the CNT-PEEK ESA provides far superior out-of-band electron rejection and UV photon rejection compared to the machined aluminum ESA. We do not detect any problems with trapped gases or outgassing. This development offers potential for significant mass savings, implementation of otherwise unattainable geometric configurations, and dramatic simplification in manufacturing and assembly processes required for development of space plasma instruments.

Quetzal Larrick↗

Identifying recharge sources and their impacts on a North Central New Mexico shallow aquifer using unsupervised machine learning

In this article, shallow aquifers are important but highly variable resources in arid to semi-arid regions. Limited shallow aquifer volume results in high sensitivity to recharge fluctuations, which can impact the local fauna and flora, and transport of contaminants in the aquifer or vadose zone. Aquifer response to external forcing (e.g., precipitation) is usually solved by estimating aquifer parameters and running physics-based models to match known fluctuations of hydraulic head. However, this technique is time and computationally expensive. Furthermore, high aquifer complexity decreases precision in physics-based models. Alternatively supervised machine learning is used to predict aquifer dynamics. However, these techniques rely on input data and struggle to interpret aquifer response for missing sources (i.e., snowpack data). To counter these problems, we propose an unsupervised machine learning technique (NMFk) to estimate the impact of different sources on aquifer recharge. NMFk is used to understand the influence of external forcing on shallow aquifer recharge in the Pajarito Plateau (Los Alamos, NM, USA). The results show how NMFk can be used to reduce the data dimension in a complex field dataset to three recharge signals that cause fluctuations within the field data. Here, the source signals are interpreted as rainfall, snowmelt, and a delayed aquifer response to the previous two signals. These results evidence how heterogeneous aquifers delimited by canyons incised into the Pajarito Plateau respond in similar ways to the source signals identified by NMFk. Furthermore, results show the importance of the local geology where faults act as sinks, and anthropogenic disturbances can facilitate infiltration amplifying the interpreted signal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Elastic Bayesian Model Calibration

Functional data are ubiquitous in scientific modeling. For instance, quantities of interest are modeled as functions of time, space, energy, density, etc. Uncertainty quantification methods for computer models with functional response have resulted in tools for emulation, sensitivity analysis, and calibration that are widely used. However, many of these tools do not perform well when the computer model’s parameters control both the amplitude variation of the functional output and its alignment (or phase variation). This paper introduces a framework for Bayesian model calibration when the model responses are misaligned functional data. The approach generates two types of data out of the misaligned functional responses: (1) aligned functions so that the amplitude variation is isolated and (2) warping functions that isolate the phase variation. These two types of data are created for the computer simulation data (both of which may be emulated) and the experimental data. The calibration approach uses both types so that it seeks to match both the amplitude and phase of the experimental data. The framework is careful to respect constraints that arise, especially when modeling phase variation, and is framed in a way that it can be done with readily available calibration software. In conclusion, we demonstrate the techniques on two simulated data examples and on two dynamic material science problems: a strength model calibration using flyer plate experiments and an equation of state model calibration using experiments performed on the Sandia National Laboratories’ Z-machine.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Nonlinear effects on sound propagation through high subsonic Mach number flows in variable area ducts

A nonlinear theory for sound propagation in variable area ducts carrying a nearly sonic flow is presented. Linear acoustic theory is shown to be singular and the detailed nature of the singularity is used to develop the correct nonlinear theory. The theory is based on a quasi-one dimensional model. It is derived by the method of matched asymptotic expansions. In a nearly chocked flow, the theory indicates the following processes to be acting: a transonic trapping of upstream propagating sound causing an intensification of this sound in the throat region of the duct; generation of superharmonics and an acoustic streaming effect; development of shocks in the acoustic quantities near the throat. Several specific problems are solved analytically and numerical parameter studies are carried out. Results indicate that appreciable acoustic power is shifted to higher harmonics as shocked conditions are approached. The effect of the throat Mach number on the attenuation of upstream propagating sound excited by a fixed source is also determined.

Callegari, A. J.↗

Eigenspace design techniques for active flutter suppression

The application of eigenspace design techniques to an active flutter suppression system for the DAST ARW-2 research drone is examined. Eigenspace design techniques allow the control system designer to determine feedback gains which place controllable eigenvalues in specified configurations and which shape eigenvectors to achieve desired dynamic response. Eigenspace techniques were applied to the control of lateral and longitudinal dynamic response of aircraft. However, little was published on the application of eigenspace techniques to aeroelastic control problems. This discussion will focus primarily on methodology for design of full-state and limited-state (output) feedback controllers. Most of the states in aeroelastic control problems are not directly measurable, and some type of dynamic compensator is necessary to convert sensor outputs to control inputs. Compensator design are accomplished by use of a Kalman filter modified if necessary by the Doyle-Stein procedure for full-state loop transfer function recovery, by some other type of observer, or by transfer function matching.

Garrard, W. L.↗

Detecting opportunities for parallel observations on the Hubble Space Telescope

The presence of multiple scientific instruments aboard the Hubble Space Telescope provides opportunities for parallel science, i.e., the simultaneous use of different instruments for different observations. Determining whether candidate observations are suitable for parallel execution depends on numerous criteria (some involving quantitative tradeoffs) that may change frequently. A knowledge based approach is presented for constructing a scoring function to rank candidate pairs of observations for parallel science. In the Parallel Observation Matching System (POMS), spacecraft knowledge and schedulers' preferences are represented using a uniform set of mappings, or knowledge functions. Assessment of parallel science opportunities is achieved via composition of the knowledge functions in a prescribed manner. The knowledge acquisition, and explanation facilities of the system are presented. The methodology is applicable to many other multiple criteria assessment problems.

Lucks, Michael↗

Numerical studies of the fluid and optical fields associated with complex cavity flows

Numerical solutions for the flowfield about several cavity configurations have been computed using the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equations. Comparisons between numerical and experimental results are made in two dimensions for free shear layers and a rectangular cavity, and in three dimensions for the transonic aero-window problem of the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA). Results show that dominant acoustic frequencies and magnitudes of the self excited resonant cavity flows compare well with the experiment. In addition, solution sensitivity to artificial dissipation and grid resolution levels are determined. Optical path distortion due to the flow field is modelled geometrically and is found to match the experiment. The fluid field was computed using a diagonalized scheme within an overset mesh framework. An existing code, OVERFLOW, was utilized with the additions of characteristic boundary condition and output routines required for reduction of the unsteady data. The newly developed code is directly applicable to a generalized three dimensional structured grid zone. Details are provided in a paper included in Appendix A.

Atwood, Christopher A.↗

Development of an Expert System for Representing Procedural Knowledge

A high level of automation is of paramount importance in most space operations. It is critical for unmanned missions and greatly increases the effectiveness of manned missions. However, although many functions can be automated by using advanced engineering techniques, others require complex reasoning, sensing, and manipulatory capabilities that go beyond this technology. Automation of fault diagnosis and malfunction handling is a case in point. The military have long been interested in this problem, and have developed automatic test equipment to aid in the maintenance of complex military hardware. These systems are all based on conventional software and engineering techniques. However, the effectiveness of such test equipment is severely limited. The equipment is inflexible and unresponsive to the skill level of the technicians using it. The diagnostic procedures cannot be matched to the exigencies of the current situation nor can they cope with reconfiguration or modification of the items under test. The diagnosis cannot be guided by useful advice from technicians and, when a fault cannot be isolated, no explanation is given as to the cause of failure. Because these systems perform a prescribed sequence of tests, they cannot utilize knowledge of a particular situation to focus attention on more likely trouble spots. Consequently, real-time performance is highly unsatisfactory. Furthermore, the cost of developing test software is substantial and time to maturation is excessive. Significant advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have recently led to the development of powerful and flexible reasoning systems, known as expert or knowledge-based systems. We have devised a powerful and theoretically sound scheme for representing and reasoning about procedural knowledge.

Georgeff, Michael P.↗

Adaptive Error Estimation in Linearized Ocean General Circulation Models

Data assimilation methods are routinely used in oceanography. The statistics of the model and measurement errors need to be specified a priori. This study addresses the problem of estimating model and measurement error statistics from observations. We start by testing innovation based methods of adaptive error estimation with low-dimensional models in the North Pacific (5-60 deg N, 132-252 deg E) to TOPEX/POSEIDON (TIP) sea level anomaly data, acoustic tomography data from the ATOC project, and the MIT General Circulation Model (GCM). A reduced state linear model that describes large scale internal (baroclinic) error dynamics is used. The methods are shown to be sensitive to the initial guess for the error statistics and the type of observations. A new off-line approach is developed, the covariance matching approach (CMA), where covariance matrices of model-data residuals are "matched" to their theoretical expectations using familiar least squares methods. This method uses observations directly instead of the innovations sequence and is shown to be related to the MT method and the method of Fu et al. (1993). Twin experiments using the same linearized MIT GCM suggest that altimetric data are ill-suited to the estimation of internal GCM errors, but that such estimates can in theory be obtained using acoustic data. The CMA is then applied to T/P sea level anomaly data and a linearization of a global GFDL GCM which uses two vertical modes. We show that the CMA method can be used with a global model and a global data set, and that the estimates of the error statistics are robust. We show that the fraction of the GCM-T/P residual variance explained by the model error is larger than that derived in Fukumori et al.(1999) with the method of Fu et al.(1993). Most of the model error is explained by the barotropic mode. However, we find that impact of the change in the error statistics on the data assimilation estimates is very small. This is explained by the large representation error, i.e. the dominance of the mesoscale eddies in the T/P signal, which are not part of the 21 by 1" GCM. Therefore, the impact of the observations on the assimilation is very small even after the adjustment of the error statistics. This work demonstrates that simult&neous estimation of the model and measurement error statistics for data assimilation with global ocean data sets and linearized GCMs is possible. However, the error covariance estimation problem is in general highly underdetermined, much more so than the state estimation problem. In other words there exist a very large number of statistical models that can be made consistent with the available data. Therefore, methods for obtaining quantitative error estimates, powerful though they may be, cannot replace physical insight. Used in the right context, as a tool for guiding the choice of a small number of model error parameters, covariance matching can be a useful addition to the repertory of tools available to oceanographers.

Chechelnitsky, Michael Y.↗