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At least 523 records · Page 29

Calculations of enrichment cascade performance using enrichment probabilities – a new method

A new method for calculating the performance of uranium enrichment cascades is presented. The method assigns a unique “enrichment probability” for each isotope to move up or down from the basic enrichment unit, allowing independent material balance calculations for each isotope. The formulation is much simpler than previous methods, which rely on isotopic ratios, and this method can be used when previous methods fail. This method gives the same results as published cases for 235 U enrichment and also gives good agreement with published data on minor isotopes. Some comparisons with measured data and other calculations are given. One case shows that the maximum 235 U enrichment that can be obtained by enrichment of reprocessed uranium (0.02% 234 U initial) is 82%. Another example shows a large difference in the minor isotopic content of material enriched in batches compared to continuous enrichment.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Sensitivity of magnetic islands in permanent magnet stellarators using the gradient and Hessian methods

Stellarator plasmas are known to be very sensitive to perturbations in the magnetic field. The permanent magnet stellarator was in part developed as a solution to high machining tolerances placed on the shape properties of electromagnetic coils in traditional stellarators. However, as a consequence of this high sensitivity to the field structure, sensitivities of permanent magnet stellarator plasmas to perturbations of permanent magnet properties must necessarily be well-understood. The gradient and Hessian matrix methods have been previously demonstrated to be useful sensitivity analysis methods for modular coils. We apply these two methods to the study of island width sensitivities in both the MUSE and PM4STELL permanent magnet stellarator projects. These sensitivity methods were used to determine the relative impacts of permanent magnet parameter perturbations on island widths in the vacuum field approximation of both stellarator equilibria. The square of resonant magnetic field perturbation is used here as a proxy for island width. In particular, gradients of magnetizations of individual magnets were examined in MUSE, as well as gradients of magnet group displacements informed by device design. Three different forms of permanent magnet magnetization perturbations are investigated for MUSE, and the flux surface response to perturbations is demonstrated. The Hessian matrix method is applied to PM4STELL, illustrating the sensitivity of dominant island widths to displacements of toroidal wedge structures. These methods allow for selective direction of experimental resources toward regions of heightened sensitivity, while constraints on less impactful permanent magnet parameters can be relaxed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Recent evolution of risk analyses in atomic bomb survivor studies: new methods and applications

Abstract Several decades ago a dramatic leap forward occurred in the development and application of statistical methods for modeling radiation risk at the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF). Poisson regression analysis for grouped person-year cohort data and the linear excess relative risk model were introduced, and subsequently a devoted software system, Epicure® (https://www.hirosoft.com), was developed by researchers at RERF and at the U.S. National Cancer Institute. Numerous advancements in understanding radiation effects on humans were made possible with these methods, which are still the state-of-the-art for risk assessment at RERF and have remained part of the standard toolbox for radiation—and other environmental—epidemiological studies worldwide. Nevertheless, as our understanding of radiation risk has increased, so have the breadth and depth of questions that require answers based on emerging data that are not amenable to these conventional methods. This overview briefly recounts the conventional methods and then describes our recent diversification into the use or development of new statistical approaches to meet the challenges of burgeoning biological data and emerging mechanistic information. We briefly discuss the development and application of new methods, current and planned, that are part of the RERF Statistics Department’s role in supporting institution-wide research, especially in our collaborations involving the Life Span Study, Adult Health Study, and First-generation Offspring Clinical Study. Some approaches to modeling and assessing radiation risk with newer methods mentioned herein have already been published, while some are still in development or are only beginning at the proposal stage.

Oncology↗

The seventh blind test of crystal structure prediction: structure ranking methods

A seventh blind test of crystal structure prediction has been organized by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre. The results are presented in two parts, with this second part focusing on methods for ranking crystal structures in order of stability. The exercise involved standardized sets of structures seeded from a range of structure generation methods. Participants from 22 groups applied several periodic DFT-D methods, machine learned potentials, force fields derived from empirical data or quantum chemical calculations, and various combinations of the above. In addition, one non-energy-based scoring function was used. Results showed that periodic DFT-D methods overall agreed with experimental data within expected error margins, while one machine learned model, applying system-specific AIMnet potentials, agreed with experiment in many cases demonstrating promise as an efficient alternative to DFT-based methods. For target XXXII, a consensus was reached across periodic DFT methods, with consistently high predicted energies of experimental forms relative to the global minimum (above 4 kJ mol −1 at both low and ambient temperatures) suggesting a more stable polymorph is likely not yet observed. The calculation of free energies at ambient temperatures offered improvement of predictions only in some cases (for targets XXVII and XXXI). Several avenues for future research have been suggested, highlighting the need for greater efficiency considering the vast amounts of resources utilized in many cases.

Chemistry↗

Enhancing ACPF Analysis: Integrating Newton-Raphson Method with Gradient Descent and Computational Graphs

This paper presents a new method for enhancing Alternating Current Power Flow (ACPF) analysis. The method integrates the Newton-Raphson (NR) method with Enhanced-Gradient Descent (GD) and computational graphs. The integration of renewable energy sources in power systems introduces variability and unpredictability, and this method addresses these challenges. It leverages the robustness of NR for accurate approximations and the flexibility of GD for handling variable conditions, all without requiring Jacobian matrix inversion. Furthermore, computational graphs provide a structured and visual framework that simplifies and systematizes the application of these methods. The goal of this fusion is to overcome the limitations of traditional ACPF methods and improve the resilience, adaptability, and efficiency of modern power grid analyses. We validate the effectiveness of our advanced algorithm through comprehensive testing on established IEEE benchmark systems. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate that our approach not only speeds up the convergence process but also ensures consistent performance across diverse system states, representing a significant advancement in power flow computation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Divide and conquer: using RhizoVision Explorer to aggregate data from multiple root scans using image concatenation and statistical methods

Roots are important in agricultural and natural systems for determining plant productivity and soil carbon inputs. Sometimes, the amount of roots in a sample is too much to fit into a single scanned image, so the sample is divided among several scans, and there is no standard method to aggregate the data. Here, we describe and validate two methods for standardizing measurements across multiple scans: image concatenation and statistical aggregation. We developed a Python script that identifies which images belong to the same sample and returns a single, larger concatenated image. These concatenated images and the original images were processed with RhizoVision Explorer, a free and open-source software. An R script was developed, which identifies rows of data belonging to the same sample and applies correct statistical methods to return a single data row for each sample. These two methods were compared using example images from switchgrass, poplar, and various tree and ericaceous shrub species from a northern peatland and the Arctic. Most root measurements were nearly identical between the two methods except median diameter, which cannot be accurately computed by statistical aggregation. We believe the availability of these methods will be useful to the root biology community.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Benchmarking the performance of uncertainty quantification methods for neural network-based interatomic potentials

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (ML-IAPs) continue to gain popularity as accurate, computationally efficient replacements for traditional, physics-based interatomic potentials and expensive ab initio methods. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of ML-IAPs is a growing area of research as UQ is critical in many applications of IAPs, such as developing curated datasets, active learning-based data augmentation, self-improving models, and estimating the uncertainty of molecular dynamics simulations. In this paper, we construct and benchmark a series of different neural network potentials (NNPs) with varying network architectures to determine the performance of these models with respect to both the mean and uncertainty calibration error. Each NNP method is specifically designed to predict either epistemic or aleatoric uncertainty with particular focus on the differences in behavior between the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty estimates. We benchmark these methods using multiple datasets common in the ML-IAP literature. The results show that the aleatoric uncertainty from single-shot model architectures is a competitive alternative to ensemble-based epistemic uncertainty predictions in regions of sufficient data-density. However, in regions where the representative data is sparse, aleatoric uncertainty models tend to overpredict and epistemic methods tend to underpredict the actual model error. We conclude that the type of UQ is crucial when discussing performance of probabilistic model results as different methods have different performance characteristics depending on the regime in which they are evaluated. Therefore, the type of UQ method should be carefully evaluated against both the data characteristics and requirements for the intended application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Adapting Traditional Hazards Analysis Methods to Address Cyber Risks

Traditional hazards analysis (HA) methods, originally developed to address physical and operational risks, often fall short when it comes to identifying and mitigating cyber threats. These cyber threats pose unique and evolving risks to critical infrastructure and industrial control systems (ICS). This report explores the integration of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles into existing HA methods to enhance their ability to address cyber-induced risks. CIE provides organizations with a practical, cost-effective approach to closing the gap between traditional HA methods and the need for cyber risk mitigation. By leveraging existing safety processes and controls, CIE allows users to examine and mitigate cyber vulnerabilities without overhauling existing HA methods. This report identifies areas where HA and CIE naturally align and where their approaches diverge. It emphasizes how CIE principles can be used to adapt HA methods, broadening their scope to include cyber risks and enabling the mitigation of cyber- induced impacts alongside traditional hazards and failure scenarios. This report examines how CIE can be applied across various HA methods—such as Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP), Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), Hazard and Consequence Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS), and Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA). It provides strategies for integrating CIE to strengthen the identification, assessment, and mitigation of cyber-induced risks. The findings offer a structured entry point for organizations to embed CIE concepts into hazards and safety analyses, as well as broader engineering processes, ultimately supporting the design and operation of a more resilient infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Adapting Traditional Hazards Analysis Methods to Address Cyber Risks

Traditional hazards analysis (HA) methods, originally developed to address physical and operational risks, often fall short when it comes to identifying and mitigating cyber threats. These cyber threats pose unique and evolving risks to critical infrastructure and industrial control systems (ICS). This report explores the integration of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles into existing HA methods to enhance their ability to address cyber-induced risks. CIE provides organizations with a practical, cost-effective approach to closing the gap between traditional HA methods and the need for cyber risk mitigation. By leveraging existing safety processes and controls, CIE allows users to examine and mitigate cyber vulnerabilities without overhauling existing HA methods. This report identifies areas where HA and CIE naturally align and where their approaches diverge. It emphasizes how CIE principles can be used to adapt HA methods, broadening their scope to include cyber risks and enabling the mitigation of cyber- induced impacts alongside traditional hazards and failure scenarios. This report examines how CIE can be applied across various HA methods—such as Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP), Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), Hazard and Consequence Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS), and Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA). It provides strategies for integrating CIE to strengthen the identification, assessment, and mitigation of cyber-induced risks. The findings offer a structured entry point for organizations to embed CIE concepts into hazards and safety analyses, as well as broader engineering processes, ultimately supporting the design and operation of a more resilient infrastructure.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

Methods for safely sharing dual-use genetic data

Background: Some genetic data has dual-use potential. Sharing pathogen data has shown tremendous value. For example therapeutic development and lineage tracking during the COVID pandemic. This data sharing is complicated by the fact that these data have the potential to be used for harm. The genome sequence of a pathogen can be used to enable malicious genetic engineering approaches or to recreate the pathogen from synthetic DNA. Standard data security methods can be applied to genetic data, but when data is shared between institutions, ensuring appropriate security can be difficult. Sensitive data that is shared internationally among a wide array of institutions can be especially difficult to control. Methods for securely storing and sharing genetic data with potential for dual-use are needed to mitigate this potential harm.Results: Here we propose new methods that allow genetic data to be shared in a data format that prevents a nefarious actor from accessing sensitive aspects of the data. Our methods obfuscate raw sequence data by pooling reads from different samples. This approach can ensure that data is secure while stored and during electronic transfer. We demonstrate that by pooling raw sequence data from multiple samples of the same organism, the ability to fully reconstruct any individual sample is prevented. In the pooled data, most genomic information remains, but reads or mutations cannot be directly attributed to any individual sample. To further restrict access to information, regions of a genome can be removed from the reads.Conclusion: Our methods obscure genomic information within raw sequence reads. This method can allow genetic data to be stored and shared while preventing a nefarious actor from being able to perfectly reconstruct an organism. Broad-scale sequence information remains, while fine scale details about specific samples are difficult or impossible to reconstruct. Our software is available at https://github.com/Geneinfosec-Inc/ReadMixer.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Tensor Network Space-Time Spectral Collocation Method for Time-Dependent Convection-Diffusion-Reaction Equations

Emerging tensor network techniques for solutions of partial differential equations (PDEs), known for their ability to break the curse of dimensionality, deliver new mathematical methods for ultra-fast numerical solutions of high-dimensional problems. Here, we introduce a Tensor Train (TT) Chebyshev spectral collocation method, in both space and time, for the solution of the time-dependent convection-diffusion-reaction (CDR) equation with inhomogeneous boundary conditions, in Cartesian geometry. Previous methods for numerical solution of time-dependent PDEs often used finite difference for time, and a spectral scheme for the spatial dimensions, which led to a slow linear convergence. Spectral collocation space-time methods show exponential convergence; however, for realistic problems they need to solve large four-dimensional systems. We overcome this difficulty by using a TT approach, as its complexity only grows linearly with the number of dimensions. We show that our TT space-time Chebyshev spectral collocation method converges exponentially, when the solution of the CDR is smooth, and demonstrate that it leads to a very high compression of linear operators from terabytes to kilobytes in TT-format, and a speedup of tens of thousands of times when compared to a full-grid space-time spectral method. These advantages allow us to obtain the solutions at much higher resolutions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Methods for Incorporating Model Uncertainty into Exoplanet Atmospheric Analysis

A key goal of exoplanet spectroscopy is to measure atmospheric properties, such as abundances of chemical species, in order to connect them to our understanding of atmospheric physics and planet formation. In this new era of high-quality JWST data, it is paramount that these measurement methods are robust. When comparing atmospheric models to observations, multiple candidate models may produce reasonable fits to the data. Typically, conclusions are reached by selecting the best-performing model according to some metric. This ignores model uncertainty in favor of specific model assumptions, potentially leading to measured atmospheric properties that are overconfident and/or incorrect. In this paper, we compare three ensemble methods for addressing model uncertainty by combining posterior distributions from multiple analyses: Bayesian model averaging, a variant of Bayesian model averaging using leave-one-out predictive densities, and stacking of predictive distributions. We demonstrate these methods by fitting the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) + Spitzer transmission spectrum of the hot Jupiter HD 209458b using models with different cloud and haze prescriptions. All of our ensemble methods lead to uncertainties on retrieved parameters that are larger but more realistic and consistent with physical and chemical expectations. Since they have not typically accounted for model uncertainty, uncertainties of retrieved parameters from HST spectra have likely been underreported. We recommend stacking as the most robust model combination method. Our methods can be used to combine results from independent retrieval codes and from different models within one code. They are also widely applicable to other exoplanet analysis processes, such as combining results from different data reductions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Progress in Development of Methods in Bone Densitometry

The effects of weightlessness and decreased activity on the astronaut's musculoskeletal system during prolonged space flight, missions are of concern to NASA. This problem was anticipated from the knowledge that human subjects lose significant quantities of calcium from the skeleton during periods of bedrest, immobilization, and water immersion. An accurate method of measurement of the changes in mineral content of the skeleton is required not only in the space program but also in the biological, medical, and dental fields for mineral metabolism studies and for studying various pathological conditions of the skeleton and teeth. This method is a difficult one requiring the coordinated efforts of physiologists, biophysicists, radiologists, and clinicians. The densitometry methods reported in this conference which have been used or are being developed include X-ray, beta excited X-rays, radioisotopes, sonic vibration, and neutron activation analysis Studies in the Gemini, Biosatellite, and Apollo flights use the X-ray bone densitometry method which requires making X-rays before and after the flights. An in-flight method of bone densitometry would be valuable, and use of radioisotope sources has been suggested. Many advances in bone densitometry have been made in the last five years, and the urgency of the requirement makes this working conference timely and valuable. In such a rapidly developing field with investigators working independently in a variety of scientific disciplines, a working conference is of great value in exchanging information and ideas, critically evaluating approaches and methods, and pointing out new research pathways.

DENSITOMETER↗

A survey of methods of feasible directions for the solution of optimal control problems

Three methods of feasible directions for optimal control are reviewed. These methods are an extension of the Frank-Wolfe method, a dual method devised by Pironneau and Polack, and a Zontendijk method. The categories of continuous optimal control problems are shown as: (1) fixed time problems with fixed initial state, free terminal state, and simple constraints on the control; (2) fixed time problems with inequality constraints on both the initial and the terminal state and no control constraints; (3) free time problems with inequality constraints on the initial and terminal states and simple constraints on the control; and (4) fixed time problems with inequality state space contraints and constraints on the control. The nonlinear programming algorithms are derived for each of the methods in its associated category.

Polak, E.↗

The computation of optimal control programmes using a modified successive sweep method.

A second-order method for numerically solving control optimization problems has been developed. The method, referred to as the modified sweep method (MSM), differs from the successive sweep method (SSM) proposed by McReynolds and Bryson (1965) in that the conditions for local control optimality are used to determine the control as an explicit function of the state variables and time. The control is eliminated from the problem and the solution to the resulting two-point boundary value problem can be obtained by linear perturbation methods. The modified sweep method proposed here uncouples the perturbation equations for the state variables and the Lagrange multipliers by using a generalized matrix-Riccati transformation of variables. The resulting algorithm for the numerical iteration process is concerned with determining the initial values of a set of Lagrange multipliers rather than correcting a numerical control programme over the entire time interval of interest.

Colunga, D.↗

A generalized method for the identification of aircraft stability and control derivatives from flight test data.

This paper discusses the application of a generalized identification method for flight test data analysis. The method is based on the maximum likelihood (ML) criterion and includes output error and equation error methods as special cases. Both the linear and nonlinear models with and without process noise are considered. The flight test data from lateral maneuvers of HL-10 and M2/F3 lifting bodies are processed to determine the lateral stability and control derivatives, instrumentation accuracies and biases. A comparison is made between the results of the output error method and the generalized ML method for M2/F3 data containing gusts. It is shown that better fits to time histories are obtained by using the generalized ML method.

Mehra, R. K.↗

Feasibility study of the numerical integration of shell equations using the field method

The field method is developed for arbitrary open branch domains subjected to general linear boundary conditions. Although closed branches are within the scope of the method, they are not treated here. The numerical feasibility of the method has been demonstrated by implementing it in a computer program for the linear static analysis of open branch shells of revolution under asymmetric loads. For such problems the field method eliminates the well-known numerical problem of long subintervals associated with the rapid growth of extraneous solutions. Also, the method appears to execute significantly faster than other numerical integration methods.

Cohen, G. A.↗

Detection of fatigue cracks by nondestructive testing methods

The effectiveness was assessed of various NDT methods to detect small tight cracks by randomly introducing fatigue cracks into aluminum sheets. The study included optimizing NDT methods calibrating NDT equipment with fatigue cracked standards, and evaluating a number of cracked specimens by the optimized NDT methods. The evaluations were conducted by highly trained personnel, provided with detailed procedures, in order to minimize the effects of human variability. These personnel performed the NDT on the test specimens without knowledge of the flaw locations and reported on the flaws detected. The performance of these tests was measured by comparing the flaws detected against the flaws present. The principal NDT methods utilized were radiographic, ultrasonic, penetrant, and eddy current. Holographic interferometry, acoustic emission monitoring, and replication methods were also applied on a reduced number of specimens. Generally, the best performance was shown by eddy current, ultrasonic, penetrant and holographic tests. Etching provided no measurable improvement, while proof loading improved flaw detectability. Data are shown that quantify the performances of the NDT methods applied.

Anderson, R. T.↗