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NASA NTRS2012

Mapping of CO2 at High Spatiotemporal Resolution using Satellite Observations: Global distributions from OCO-2

Satellite observations of CO2 offer new opportunities to improve our understanding of the global carbon cycle. Using such observations to infer global maps of atmospheric CO2 and their associated uncertainties can provide key information about the distribution and dynamic behavior of CO2, through comparison to atmospheric CO2 distributions predicted from biospheric, oceanic, or fossil fuel flux emissions estimates coupled with atmospheric transport models. Ideally, these maps should be at temporal resolutions that are short enough to represent and capture the synoptic dynamics of atmospheric CO2. This study presents a geostatistical method that accomplishes this goal. The method can extract information about the spatial covariance structure of the CO2 field from the available CO2 retrievals, yields full coverage (Level 3) maps at high spatial resolutions, and provides estimates of the uncertainties associated with these maps. The method does not require information about CO2 fluxes or atmospheric transport, such that the Level 3 maps are informed entirely by available retrievals. The approach is assessed by investigating its performance using synthetic OCO-2 data generated from the PCTM/ GEOS-4/CASA-GFED model, for time periods ranging from 1 to 16 days and a target spatial resolution of 1deg latitude x 1.25deg longitude. Results show that global CO2 fields from OCO-2 observations can be predicted well at surprisingly high temporal resolutions. Even one-day Level 3 maps reproduce the large-scale features of the atmospheric CO2 distribution, and yield realistic uncertainty bounds. Temporal resolutions of two to four days result in the best performance for a wide range of investigated scenarios, providing maps at an order of magnitude higher temporal resolution relative to the monthly or seasonal Level 3 maps typically reported in the literature.

Hammerling, Dorit M.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Integrated hydrogeophysical modelling and data assimilation for geoelectrical leak detection

Time-lapse electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) measurements provide indirect observations of hydrological processes in the Earth's shallow subsurface at high spatial and temporal resolution. ERT has been used in the past decades to detect leaks and monitor the evolution of associated contaminant plumes. Specifically, inverted resistivity images allow visualization of the dynamic changes in the structure of the plume. However, existing methods do not allow the direct estimation of leak parameters (e.g. leak rate, location, etc.) and their uncertainties. We propose an ensemble-based data assimilation framework that evaluates proposed hydrological models against observed time-lapse ERT measurements without directly inverting for the resistivities. Each proposed hydrological model is run through the parallel coupled hydro-geophysical simulation code PFLOTRAN-E4D to obtain simulated ERT measurements. The ensemble of model proposals is then updated using an iterative ensemble smoother. In this paper, we demonstrate the proposed framework on synthetic and field ERT data from controlled tracer injection experiments. Our results show that the approach allows joint identification of contaminant source location, initial release time, and solute loading from the cross-borehole time-lapse ERT data, alongside with an assessment of uncertainties in these estimates. We demonstrate a reduction in site-wide uncertainty by comparing the prior and posterior plume mass discharges at a selected image plane. This framework is particularly attractive to sites that have previously undergone extensive geological investigation (e.g., nuclear sites). It is well suited to complement ERT imaging and we discuss practical issues in its application to field problems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Electron scattering and neutrino physics

Abstract A thorough understanding of neutrino–nucleus scattering physics is crucial for the successful execution of the entire US neutrino physics program. Neutrino–nucleus interaction constitutes one of the biggest systematic uncertainties in neutrino experiments—both at intermediate energies affecting long-baseline deep underground neutrino experiment, as well as at low energies affecting coherent scattering neutrino program—and could well be the difference between achieving or missing discovery level precision. To this end, electron–nucleus scattering experiments provide vital information to test, assess and validate different nuclear models and event generators intended to test, assess and validate different nuclear models and event generators intended to be used in neutrino experiments. Similarly, for the low-energy neutrino program revolving around the coherent elastic neutrino–nucleus scattering (CEvNS) physics at stopped pion sources, such as at ORNL, the main source of uncertainty in the evaluation of the CEvNS cross section is driven by the underlying nuclear structure, embedded in the weak form factor, of the target nucleus. To this end, parity-violating electron scattering (PVES) experiments, utilizing polarized electron beams, provide vital model-independent information in determining weak form factors. This information is vital in achieving a percent level precision needed to disentangle new physics signals from the standard model expected CEvNS rate. In this white paper, we highlight connections between electron- and neutrino–nucleus scattering physics at energies ranging from 10 s of MeV to a few GeV, review the status of ongoing and planned electron scattering experiments, identify gaps, and lay out a path forward that benefits the neutrino community. We also highlight the systemic challenges with respect to the divide between the nuclear and high-energy physics communities and funding that presents additional hurdles in mobilizing these connections to the benefit of neutrino programs.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying Uncertainties In Neutron-Alpha Scattering With Chiral Nucleon-Nucleon And Three-Nucleon Forces

We report that modern ab initio theory combined with high-quality nucleon-nucleon (NN) and three-nucleon (3N) interactions from chiral effective field theory (EFT) can provide a predictive description of low-energy light-nuclei reactions relevant for astrophysics and fusion-energy applications. However, the high cost of computations has so far impeded a complete analysis of the uncertainty budget of such calculations. Starting from NN potentials up to fifth order (N 4 LO) combined with leading-order 3N forces, we study how the order-by-order convergence of the chiral expansion and confidence intervals for the 3N contact and contact-plus-one-pion-exchange low-energy constants (c E and c D ) contribute to the overall uncertainty budget of many-body calculations of neutron- 4 He (n-α) elastic scattering. We compute structure and reaction observables for three-, four-, and five-nucleon systems within the ab initio frameworks of the no-core shell model and no-core shell model with continuum. Using a small set of design runs, we construct a Gaussian process model (GPM) that acts as a statistical emulator for the theory. With this, we gain insight into how uncertainties in the 3N low-energy constants propagate throughout the calculation and determine the Bayesian posterior distribution of these parameters with Markov-Chain Monte Carlo. We find rapidly converging n-α phase shifts with respect to the chiral order. With the adopted leading-order 3N force, calculations based on the NN interaction at N 4 LO of Entem, Machleidt, and Nosyk are unable to reproduce the experimental phase shifts in the 3/2 - channel within the estimated chiral truncation errors. Closer agreement with empirical data is found when using an older parametrization of the NN interaction at order N 3 LO, and the position and width of the P-wave resonances can be used to reduce the uncertainty of the 3N low-energy constants. The present results point to a lack of spin-orbit strength when the newer parametrization of the chiral NN force up to fifth order is combined with the leading-order 3N force. The inclusion of higher-order 3N-force terms may be required to recover the missing strength. GPMs can act as fast and accurate emulators of ab initio many-body calculations of low-energy scattering and reactions of light nuclei, opening the way to a robust quantification of theoretical uncertainties grounded in the description of the underlying chiral Hamiltonian.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Integrated Process-Structure-Property Simulations for Additive Manufacturing Using the Open-Source Materialite Package

The microstructure and properties of additively manufactured (AM) metals are strongly dependent on process conditions. Therefore, process-structure-property (PSP) simulations are a useful tool for exploring process parameter space, studying process variations, and quantifying uncertainty in material properties. However, integrating process-structure and structure-property simulations often involves connecting multiple software packages. Each package may use unique data structures and require substantial domain knowledge. This presentation demonstrates PSP simulation capabilities of Materialite, an open-source package developed at NASA Langley Research Center. Materialite simplifies model linkages by using a common data structure and model interface, enabling straightforward simulation across a PSP model chain. Physics-based models, including kinetic Monte Carlo and crystal plasticity, are implemented within the package. The model interface is also intended to simplify implementation of new models and enable integration with external simulation tools. Example use cases include uncertainty quantification with PSP models and GPU-accelerated powder bed fusion AM process models.

additive manufacturing↗

DOE OSTI2020

Time of Emergence and Large Ensemble Intercomparison for Ocean Biogeochemical Trends

Anthropogenically forced changes in ocean biogeochemistry are underway and critical for the ocean carbon sink and marine habitat. Detecting such changes in ocean biogeochemistry will require quantification of the magnitude of the change (anthropogenic signal) and the natural variability inherent to the climate system (noise). Here we use Large Ensemble (LE) experiments from four Earth system models (ESMs) with multiple emissions scenarios to estimate Time of Emergence (ToE) and partition projection uncertainty for anthropogenic signals in five biogeochemically important upper-ocean variables. We find ToEs are robust across ESMs for sea surface temperature and the invasion of anthropogenic carbon; emergence time scales are 20–30 yr. For the biological carbon pump, and sea surface chlorophyll and salinity, emergence time scales are longer (50+ yr), less robust across the ESMs, and more sensitive to the forcing scenario considered. We find internal variability uncertainty, and model differences in the internal variability uncertainty, can be consequential sources of uncertainty for projecting regional changes in ocean biogeochemistry over the coming decades. In combining structural, scenario, and internal variability uncertainty, this study represents the most comprehensive characterization of biogeochemical emergence time scales and uncertainty to date. Our findings delineate critical spatial and duration requirements for marine observing systems to robustly detect anthropogenic change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Discovery of TOI-1260d and the characterization of the multiplanet system

ABSTRACT We report the discovery of a third planet transiting the star TOI-1260, previously known to host two transiting sub-Neptune planets with orbital periods of 3.127 and 7.493 d, respectively. The nature of the third transiting planet with a 16.6-d orbit is supported by ground-based follow-up observations, including time-series photometry, high-angular resolution images, spectroscopy, and archival imagery. Precise photometric monitoring with CHEOPS allows to improve the constraints on the parameters of the system, improving our knowledge on their composition. The improved radii of TOI-1260b and TOI-1260c are $2.36 \pm 0.06 \rm R_{\oplus }$, $2.82 \pm 0.08 \rm R_{\oplus }$, respectively while the newly discovered third planet has a radius of $3.09 \pm 0.09 \rm R_{\oplus }$. The radius uncertainties are in the range of 3 per cent, allowing a precise interpretation of the interior structure of the three planets. Our planet interior composition model suggests that all three planets in the TOI-1260 system contains some fraction of gas. The innermost planet TOI-1260b has most likely lost all of its primordial hydrogen-dominated envelope. Planets c and d were also likely to have experienced significant loss of atmospheric through escape, but to a lesser extent compared to planet b.

Lam, K. W. F. (ORCID:0000000299106088)↗

NASA NTRS1997

Computation of LFT Uncertainty Bounds with Repeated Parametric Uncertainties

A new methodology in which linear fractional transformation uncertainty bounds are directly constructed for use in robust control design and analysis is proposed. Existence conditions for model validating solutions with or without repeated scalar uncertainty are given. The approach is based on minimax formulation to deal with multiple non-repeated structured uncertainty components subject to fixed levels of repeated scalar uncertainties. Input directional dependence and variations with different experiments are addressed by maximizing uncertainty levels over multiple experimental data sets. Preliminary results show that reasonable uncertainty bounds on structured non-repeated uncertainties can be identified directly from measurement data by assuming reasonable levels of repeated scalar uncertainties.

Lim, K. B.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Direct Adaptive Control of Systems with Actuator Failures: State of the Art and Continuing Challenges

In this paper, the problem of controlling systems with failures and faults is introduced, and an overview of recent work on direct adaptive control for compensation of uncertain actuator failures is presented. Actuator failures may be characterized by some unknown system inputs being stuck at some unknown (fixed or varying) values at unknown time instants, that cannot be influenced by the control signals. The key task of adaptive compensation is to design the control signals in such a manner that the remaining actuators can automatically and seamlessly take over for the failed ones, and achieve desired stability and asymptotic tracking. A certain degree of redundancy is necessary to accomplish failure compensation. The objective of adaptive control design is to effectively use the available actuation redundancy to handle failures without the knowledge of the failure patterns, parameters, and time of occurrence. This is a challenging problem because failures introduce large uncertainties in the dynamic structure of the system, in addition to parametric uncertainties and unknown disturbances. The paper addresses some theoretical issues in adaptive actuator failure compensation: actuator failure modeling, redundant actuation requirements, plant-model matching, error system dynamics, adaptation laws, and stability, tracking, and performance analysis. Adaptive control designs can be shown to effectively handle uncertain actuator failures without explicit failure detection. Some open technical challenges and research problems in this important research area are discussed.

Tao, Gang↗

DOE OSTI2021

Connections Between Mean North Pacific Circulation and Western US Precipitation Extremes in a Warming Climate

Abstract Extreme precipitation has widespread impacts over the western US (WUS), which are expected to be exacerbated in the future given thermodynamically driven increases in atmospheric moisture and shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. However, internal climate variability complicates how these factors affect future projections of precipitation changes. In this study, we investigate late 21st‐century changes in mean‐state responses over the North Pacific Ocean and associated WUS precipitation extremes using the Multi‐Model Large Ensemble Archive, which is a recent and valuable resource to disentangle the effects of model structural differences from internal variability. We found that inter‐model differences in precipitation extremes over the WUS are large: from south to north (here, from California to Washington), models show different levels of increases for both the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation. In general, the Pacific Northwest sees a more consistent signal than California. We show that wet‐season mean circulation influences extreme precipitation, by using a decomposition of the relative contributions of thermodynamic (atmospheric humidity) and dynamic (large‐scale circulation) driven changes. The thermodynamic contribution dominates, however, the dynamic contribution varies with latitude and differs substantially between model ensembles. Inter‐model differences affect the spread in not only the magnitude, but also the sign of the dynamic contribution. This implies that mean circulation changes contribute to uncertainty in quantifying the regional structure of concentrated moisture flux and future extreme events. This result highlights the need to more accurately constrain projected North Pacific coupled circulation changes to narrow the spread in projections of future precipitation extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Perspectives on Systematic Cloud Microphysics Scheme Development With Machine Learning

Cloud microphysics—the collection of processes that govern the small‐scale formation, evolution, and interactions of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds and precipitation—remains a major source of uncertainty in weather and climate models. Although too small in scale to be explicitly resolved in any large‐eddy simulation, weather, or climate model, the representation of cloud microphysical processes has significant impact at the climate scale. Current microphysical schemes are limited by both parametric uncertainty, linked to uncertainty in physical parameter values, and structural uncertainty, arising from incomplete physical understanding of the processes at play or approximations made for computational efficiency. Recent advances in the application of machine learning (ML) to the physical sciences show significant potential for minimizing these limitations by leveraging high‐fidelity simulations and observations. Here we outline the challenges that must be addressed to apply ML toward cloud microphysics scheme development. This perspectives paper synthesizes recent progress in using data‐driven methods, including ML, to improve cloud microphysics parameterizations and highlights opportunities to address key uncertainties. We discuss the roles of aleatoric (irreducible, or statistical) and epistemic (reducible, or systematic) errors in contributing to microphysics parameterization uncertainty. ML can leverage observations to improve microphysical schemes via bottom‐up and top‐down constraints. Methods such as differentiable programming and ML‐enhanced sampling strategies and the creation of large scale benchmark data sets promise to bridge the gap between observations and models and to improve the consistency of cloud microphysical representation across temporal and spatial scales.

Lamb, Kara D. [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (Unite↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic PRA-Based Estimation of PWR Coping Time Using a Surrogate Model for Accident Tolerant Fuel

In this study, we propose an interpolation-based response surface surrogate methodology to manage a large number of scenarios in dynamic probabilistic risk assessment. It adopts the shape Dynamic Time Warping algorithm to cluster the interpolation neighborhood from time series sample data. The interpolation method was adapted from Taylor Kriging to allow a reduced-order model of the Taylor series. In order to demonstrate its applicability to complex issues in risk assessment for nuclear engineering, an example risk response surface to estimate emergency core cooling system (ECCS) criteria for triplex silicon carbide (SiC) accident-tolerant fuel was constructed. The response surface was exploited to estimate the cumulative failure probability of the fuel cladding structure due to the uncertainties in operator actions and safety systems. The functional failures were assessed based on a combination of individual layer failures computed by coupling Risk Analysis Virtual Environment software with a pressurized water reactor 1000-MW(electric) RELAP5 model and the in-house fuel performance assessment module. Results showed that SiC cladding failure probability spiked less than 1 min after a large-break loss-of- coolant accident whenever the current ECCS criteria for Zircaloy-4 (Zr-4) cladding was used. However, it still provides an increased safety margin of three orders of magnitude compared to Zr-4. This positive margin could be utilized to relax active ECCS requirements by allowing deviations of up to 450 s in its actuation time. The proposed surrogate methodology generated a response surface of SiC cladding failure probability reasonably well, with a significant savings of computation time. This methodology is expected to be useful in the analysis of system response with complex uncertainty sources.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Identifiability and predictability of integer- and fractional-order epidemiological models using physics-informed neural networks

Here we analyze a plurality of epidemiological models through the lens of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) that enable us to identify time-dependent parameters and data-driven fractional differential operators. In particular, we consider several variations of the classical susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model by introducing more compartments and fractional-order and time-delay models. We report the results for the spread of COVID-19 in New York City, Rhode Island and Michigan states and Italy, by simultaneously inferring the unknown parameters and the unobserved dynamics. For integer-order and time-delay models, we fit the available data by identifying time-dependent parameters, which are represented by neural networks. In contrast, for fractional differential models, we fit the data by determining different time-dependent derivative orders for each compartment, which we represent by neural networks. We investigate the structural and practical identifiability of these unknown functions for different datasets, and quantify the uncertainty associated with neural networks and with control measures in forecasting the pandemic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Measurement of U 238 ( n , n ' γ ) cross section data and their impact on reaction models

A better knowledge of (n,xn) reaction cross sections is important for both reaction modeling and energy applications. This article focuses on inelastic scattering of neutrons off 238 U for which improvements are needed to better constrain evaluations and solve inconsistencies in nuclear power reactor calculations. A new precise measurement of (n,xnγ) reaction cross sections on 238 U has been performed at the GELINA (Geel Electron LINear Accelerator) neutron facility operated by EC-JRC-Geel (Belgium) with the GRAPhEME (GeRmanium array for Actinides PrEcise MEasurements) setup. The prompt γ-ray spectroscopy method coupled to time-of-flight measurements is used to extract (n,xnγ) cross section values which can be further combined to infer the total neutron inelastic scattering cross section. Cross section data for 18 γ transitions (five never measured before) are presented and compared to the data in the literature. Here, emphasis is especially given to the uncertainty determination to produce partial cross section data as accurate as possible. Due to intrinsic limitations of the experimental method, the use of additional nuclear structure information coupled with theoretical modeling is required to determine the total (n, n') cross section over the whole neutron energy range. We have investigated modeling aspects of the 238 U(n,n'γ) cross sections related to the description of compound nucleus and preequilibirum mechanisms as well as the discrete part of nuclear structure. Through comparison between experimental and calculated (n,n'γ) cross sections, we pinpoint inaccuracies in the description of specific reaction mechanisms and challenge recently implemented models. This helps improving the whole modeling of the (n, n') reaction.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1992

Improvement of structural models using covariance analysis and nonlinear generalized least squares

The next generation of large, flexible space structures will be too light to support their own weight, requiring a system of structural supports for ground testing. The authors have proposed multiple boundary-condition testing (MBCT), using more than one support condition to reduce uncertainties associated with the supports. MBCT would revise the mass and stiffness matrix, analytically qualifying the structure for operation in space. The same procedure is applicable to other common test conditions, such as empty/loaded tanks and subsystem/system level tests. This paper examines three techniques for constructing the covariance matrix required by nonlinear generalized least squares (NGLS) to update structural models based on modal test data. The methods range from a complicated approach used to generate the simulation data (i.e., the correct answer) to a diagonal matrix based on only two constants. The results show that NGLS is very insensitive to assumptions about the covariance matrix, suggesting that a workable NGLS procedure is possible. The examples also indicate that the multiple boundary condition procedure more accurately reduces errors than individual boundary condition tests alone.

Glaser, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Analytical model accuracy requirements for structural dynamic systems

A test/analysis correlation criterion for the analytical model accuracy requirement has been developed. It is based on the principle of equal errors from the model inaccuracy and the uncertainties of dynamic environments. The forcing functions are idealized to establish the base for uncertainty definition and the maximum allowable errors from these uncertainties are obtained. Then the model accuracy requirement is established by comparing the responses due to the model errors to those due to the forcing function uncertainties.

Chen, J.-C.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Validation of CFD simulations of the moored DeepCwind offshore wind semisubmersible in irregular waves

This article examines the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations to predict the response of a floating wind platform to irregular-wave excitation. This work was conducted as part of the Reproducible CFD Joint Industry Project for Floating Offshore Wind Applications and involved verification across several participants and modeling tools and validation against experiments. The authors pay special attention to the uncertainties in both CFD results and experimental measurements. In this work, we perform detailed comparisons of the incident waves and the motion of a moored structure. The nonlinear, low-frequency resonance motion is of particular interest because it potentially drives the mooring and tower-base loads. The verification and validation study is partially successful in that the CFD simulations capture the low-frequency slow-drift motion well but underpredict the low-frequency pitch resonance. This underprediction can be attributed in part to the CFD incident waves, which showed some discrepancies with the experimental waves, especially around extreme events. The effects of the wave discrepancies are also estimated and investigated using a mid-fidelity OpenFAST model. Overall, the present study increases our confidence in using CFD simulations to predict the global performance of offshore wind platforms in irregular waves and to produce data for the calibration of lower-fidelity models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multiscale modeling for high burnup structure formation and associated pulverization

This report summarizes the lower length scale modeling work performed in the fiscal year 2023 under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program to capture the microstrutural evolution and associated pulverization criteria in the high burnup regions. This year, the resolution mechanisms within the cluster dynamics code has been updated and it influence on the bubble growth in HBS regions at the mesoscale is studied. To improve the accuracy of phase-field models of fission gas bubble growth, a new Helmholtz free energy for high-density Xe gas is derived from a virial equation of state. Two previously used strategies for representing net vacancy production in phase-field models of fission gas bubble growth are compared with each other and with analytical models of bubble growth. The vacancy source only model is found to be more convenient to parameterize realistically compared with the vacancy source+sink model. Furthermore, the phase-field-fracture simulation have been performed using MD- informed failure stress values and realistic HBS structure obtained from the phase-field simulations. We also present the uncertainty bands on prediction of the critical stress to account for the effect of the lower length scale variabilities on the failure criteria at the mesoscale. It is observed that pulverization may occur in partially restructured regions with restructuring fraction as low as 17%. In light of this, an update to the BISON’s pulverization criteria is recommended.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗