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DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven modeling to enhance municipal water demand estimates in response to dynamic climate conditions

Altered precipitation and temperature patterns from a changing climate will affect supply, demand, and overall municipal water system operations throughout the arid western U.S. While supply forecasts leverage hydrological models to connect climate influences with surface water availability, demand forecasts typically estimate water use independent of climate and other externalities. Stemming from an increased focus on seasonal water demand management, we use the Salt Lake City, Utah municipal water system as a test bed to assess model accuracy versus complexity trade-offs between simple climate-independent econometric-based models and complex climate-sensitive data-driven models to average to extreme wet and dry climate conditions—representative of a new climate normal. Here, the climate-independent model displayed low performance during extreme dry conditions with predictions exceeding 90% and 40% of the observed monthly and seasonal volumetric demands, respectively, which we attribute to insufficient model complexity. The climate-sensitive models displayed greater accuracy in all conditions, with an ordinary least squares model demonstrating a measurable reduction in prediction bias (3.4% vs. -27.3%) and RMSE (74.0 lpcd vs. 294 lpcd) compared to the climate-independent model. The climate-sensitive workflow increased model accuracy and characterized climate-demand interactions, demonstrating a novel tool to enhance water system management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1990

Toward modeling a dynamic biological neural network

The organization of a mammalian macular endorgan is interpreted on physical and engineering principles. Having accomplished this task, it is possible to mathematically and symbolically model information processing by the macular neural network. A complex symbolic model is produced through use of mathematical notations that describe the functioning system. The model, consisting of six tiers, is constructed to mimic the neural system. On the basis of initial simulations, it is concluded that the network functions best when some of the detecting elements (i.e., type I hair cells) are weakly inhibitory. The simulations also illustrate the importance of disinhibition of receptors located in the third tier in shaping nerve discharge patterns at the sixth tier in the model system.

Ross, M. D.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Plant Nutrition Influences Resistant Maize Defense Responses to the Fall Armyworm ( Spodoptera frugiperda )

Plants are often confronted by different groups of herbivores, which threaten their growth and reproduction. However, they are capable of mounting defenses against would-be attackers which may be heightened upon attack. Resistance to insects often varies among plant species, with different genotypes exhibiting unique patterns of chemical and physical defenses. Within this framework, plant access to nutrients may be critical for maximal functioning of resistance mechanisms and are likely to differ among plant genotypes. In this study, we aimed to test the hypothesis that access to nutrition would alter the expression of plant resistance to insects and alter insect performance in a manner consistent with fertilization regime. We used two maize (Zea mays) genotypes possessing different levels of resistance and the fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) as model systems. Plants were subjected to three fertilization regimes prior to assessing insect-mediated responses. Upon reaching V4 stage, maize plants were separated into two groups, one of which was infested with fall armyworm larvae to induce plant defenses. Plant tissue was collected and used in insect bioassays and to measure the expression of defense-related genes and proteins. Insect performance differed between the two plant genotypes substantially. For each genotype, fertilization altered larval performance, where lower fertilization rates hindered larval growth. Induction of plant defenses by prior herbivory substantially reduced naïve fall armyworm growth in both genotypes. The effects between fertilization and induced defenses were complex, with low fertilization reducing induced defenses in the resistant maize. Gene and protein expression patterns differed between the genotypes, with herbivory often increasing expression, but differing between fertilization levels. The soluble protein concentrations did not change across fertilization levels but was higher in the susceptible maize genotype. These results demonstrate the malleability of plant defenses and the cascading effects of plant nutrition on insect herbivory.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dual‐Transformer Deep Learning Framework for Seasonal Forecasting of Great Lakes Water Levels

Abstract The Great Lakes of North America form one of the largest freshwater systems on Earth, and their lake‐wide average water levels (lake levels) can fluctuate by more than 0.5 m on a seasonal scale. These fluctuations pose substantial challenges for coastal resilience, flood risk management, and navigation planning. Accurate seasonal forecasting of lake levels using traditional mechanistic models is challenging due to the complex physical mechanisms and coupled hydroclimatic processes involved. Recently, deep learning has gained prominence in geoscience applications for its ability to recognize intricate patterns within multiphysical data sets. Here, we introduce a novel Dual‐Transformer deep learning framework, tested on the Great Lakes. This architecture integrates two modified Transformer models: the Prophet, which predicts underlying trends, and the Critic, which refines the Prophet's predictions. The final lake level prediction is derived by weighting the outputs of both models through a multi‐layer perceptron, jointly trained with the Prophet and Critic to enhance overall accuracy. Our results demonstrate that the innovative learning framework achieves the highest prediction accuracy compared to established deep learning models when using identical input features. It attains a root mean square error of 4–7 cm in predicting lake levels up to 6 months in advance across the lakes. Additionally, the Dual‐Transformer model runs six orders of magnitude faster than conventional mechanistic models, producing results in less than one second on a typical personal computer. These findings suggest that our deep learning framework has strong potential to advance lake level prediction and carries important implications for water management and disaster mitigation, thereby enhancing the quality of life in coastal regions.

Chen, Yi [Great Lakes Research Center Michigan Tec↗

DOE OSTI2021

The PetscSF Scalable Communication Layer

PetscSF, the communication component of the Portable, Extensible Toolkit for Scientific Computation (PETSc), is designed to provide PETSc's communication infrastructure suitable for exascale computers that utilize GPUs and other accelerators. PetscSF provides a simple application programming interface (API) for managing common communication patterns in scientific computations by using a star-forest graph representation. PetscSF supports several implementations based on MPI and NVSHMEM, whose selection is based on the characteristics of the application or the target architecture. An efficient and portable model for network and intra-node communication is essential for implementing large-scale applications. The Message Passing Interface, which has been the de facto standard for distributed memory systems, has developed into a large complex API that does not yet provide high performance on the emerging heterogeneous CPU-GPU-based exascale systems. Here, we discuss the design of PetscSF, how it can overcome some difficulties of working directly with MPI on GPUs, and we demonstrate its performance, scalability, and novel features.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1989

Synthetic perspective optical flow: Influence on pilot control tasks

One approach used to better understand the impact of visual flow on control tasks has been to use synthetic perspective flow patterns. Such patterns are the result of apparent motion across a grid or random dot display. Unfortunately, the optical flow so generated is based on a subset of the flow information that exists in the real world. The danger is that the resulting optical motions may not generate the visual flow patterns useful for actual flight control. Researchers conducted a series of studies directed at understanding the characteristics of synthetic perspective flow that support various pilot tasks. In the first of these, they examined the control of altitude over various perspective grid textures (Johnson et al., 1987). Another set of studies was directed at studying the head tracking of targets moving in a 3-D coordinate system. These studies, parametric in nature, utilized both impoverished and complex virtual worlds represented by simple perspective grids at one extreme, and computer-generated terrain at the other. These studies are part of an applied visual research program directed at understanding the design principles required for the development of instruments displaying spatial orientation information. The experiments also highlight the need for modeling the impact of spatial displays on pilot control tasks.

Bennett, C. Thomas↗

NASA NTRS2003

Designing a Hybrid Laminar-Flow Control Experiment: The CFD-Experiment Connection

The NASA/Boeing hybrid laminar flow control (HLFC) experiment, designed during 1993-1994 and conducted in the NASA LaRC 8-foot Transonic Pressure Tunnel in 1995, utilized computational fluid dynamics and numerical simulation of complex fluid mechanics to an unprecedented extent for the design of the test article and measurement equipment. CFD was used in: the design of the test wing, which was carried from definition of desired disturbance growth characteristics, through to the final airfoil shape that would produce those growth characteristics; the design of the suction-surface perforation pattern that produced enhanced crossflow-disturbance growth: and in the design of the hot-wire traverse system that produced minimal influence on measured disturbance growth. These and other aspects of the design of the test are discussed, after the historical and technical context of the experiment is described.

Streett, C. L.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deformation Mechanism Transition in Additively Manufactured Compositionally Graded Fe-Base Alloys

Microstructure-dependent deformation and fracture behavior was investigated for an additively manufactured compositionally graded alloy (CGA) printed using the laser-directed energy deposition (L-DED) method to explore an alternative approach for dissimilar metal joints in nuclear energy systems. The electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) maps from scanning electron microscopy (SEM) display a clear microstructural transition with decreasing austenite-forming elements (Ni and Mn), from an austenite (γ) dominant structure, to a complex composite structure containing ferrite (α), martensite (α') and retained austenite, and then to a fully ferritic structure. EBSD data were recorded in situ during tensile testing in SEM, and the evolution of the deformation mechanism and microstructure was characterized using Kikuchi diffraction pattern analysis. Complementary analysis for high-resolution features was also performed using scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM). The Ni/Mn-rich austenite-dominant microstructures showed a complex deformation mechanism of two-step martensitic transformation (γ→ε→α'), whereas the minor austenite phase retained in the ferrite and/or martensite matrix showed a single transformation route (γ→α'). Ordinary dislocation glide and twinning via partial dislocation glide were observed in the austenite deformation. Meanwhile, the ferrite and martensite grains deformed mainly by ordinary dislocation slips and grain rotation. Furthermore, static tensile fracture was also highly dependent on local composition and phase constituents.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Manipulation of self-organized multi-vortical states in active magnetic roller suspensions

Ensembles of active magnetic colloids demonstrate complex collective behavior and self-organization when driven out of equilibrium by external magnetic fields. The interplay between magnetic and hydrodynamic interactions often result in spontaneous self-assembly and the emergence of localized vortices in ensembles of ferromagnetic rollers. We report experimental and computational study of the self-organized multi-vortical state in ensembles of magnetic rollers under the imposed external confining potential realized by patterned substrates. We explore the behavior of the system on a substrate patterned with shallow wells ordered in a lattice with square symmetry and lattice spacing smaller than the wells’ diameter. Here we demonstrate, that ensembles of active magnetic rollers evolve in response to changes in the geometry of the confining lattice from a globally correlated state characterized by anti-ferromagnetic vortex ordering to a state with rapidly changing particle flows and self-organized vortical states with a lattice constant larger than one of the confining pattern. Our experimental observations are accompanied by numerical simulations based on phenomenological coarse grained particle dynamics coupled to Navier–Stokes hydrodynamics in shallow water approximation. The reported results provide insights into the collective behavior of active magnetic rollers under confinement and suggest strategies for the manipulation of collective dynamic states in active magnetic liquids.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

SigTime: Learning and Visually Explaining Time Series Signatures

Understanding and distinguishing temporal patterns in time series data is essential for scientific discovery and decision-making. For example, in biomedical research, uncovering meaningful patterns in physiological signals can improve diagnosis, risk assessment, and patient outcomes. However, existing methods for time series pattern discovery face major challenges, including high computational complexity, limited interpretability, and difficulty in capturing meaningful temporal structures. Here, to address these gaps, we introduce a novel learning framework that jointly trains two Transformer models using complementary time series representations: shapelet-based representations to capture localized temporal structures and traditional feature engineering to encode statistical properties. The learned shapelets serve as interpretable signatures that differentiate time series across classification labels. Additionally, we develop a visual analytics system—SigTime—with coordinated views to facilitate exploration of time series signatures from multiple perspectives, aiding in useful insights generation. We quantitatively evaluate our learning framework on eight publicly available datasets and one proprietary clinical dataset. Additionally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our system through two usage scenarios along with the domain experts: one involving public ECG data and the other focused on preterm labor analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Numerical Study of Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay Using an Unstructured Grid Model: Validation and Sensitivity to Bathymetry Representation

A three-dimensional unstructured-grid hydrodynamic and water quality model (Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Intergrated System Model-Integrated Compartment Model) is applied successfully for Chesapeake Bay. The model is validated with observations of salinity, chlorophyll-a, dissolved oxygen, nutrients, and phytoplankton productions from the year 1991 to 1995 for the mainstem and some major tributaries, based on multiple model skill scores. Model experiments are conducted to test the importance of having (1) an accurate representation of bathymetry to correctly predict hypoxia and other processes and (2) a high-resolution model grid for tributaries to correctly simulate water quality variables. Further, comparison with the model experiment results with bathymetry smoothing indicates that bathymetry smoothing, as commonly used for many systems, changes the stratification and lateral circulation pattern, resulting in more salt intrusion into shallow water regions, and an increase in the freshwater age. Consequently, a model with bathymetry smoothing can lead to an unrealistic prediction of the distribution of hypoxia and phytoplankton production. Local grid refinement shows significant improvement of model simulations on local stratification and water quality variables. Overall, the use of high-resolution unstructured grid model leads to a faithful representation of the complex geometry, and thus a seamless cross-scale capability for simulating water quality processes in the Bay including tributaries and tidal creeks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Improving Short Term Predictability of Hydrologic Models with Deep Learning

Focal Area: Focal Area 2. Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (e.g., AI driven model/component/parameterization selection). Science Challenge: A major challenge exists in the lack of reliable predictive modeling of water-cycle extremes using macro-scale hydrologic models that are driven by atmospheric climate data. This causes a critical knowledge gap in understanding the magnitudes, probabilities, and severity of droughts, rainfall, and flooding. Improved understanding of these extreme events requires more accurate modeling at high spatial and temporal resolutions. This shortcoming is especially apparent when complex couplings between atmospheric quantities and engineered systems emerge, such as during extreme precipitation or drought events and at intersections of atmospheric-land-fluvial-ocean systems. Added complexity around representing operations of engineered infrastructure leads to a limited capability to analyze the temporal and spatial implications of compounding extreme events across inland and coastal regions. This results in profound challenges for water and power systems operators, agriculture production, and regional infrastructure planning. The science challenge can be summarized as How can we use AI/ML to improve short term predictability of extreme water-cycle events and associated risk, especially compounding events and extreme rainfall patterns that result in flooding, to inland and coastal communities under different climate scenarios?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2013

Model-based Systems Engineering: Creation and Implementation of Model Validation Rules for MOS 2.0

Model-based Systems Engineering (MBSE) is an emerging modeling application that is used to enhance the system development process. MBSE allows for the centralization of project and system information that would otherwise be stored in extraneous locations, yielding better communication, expedited document generation and increased knowledge capture. Based on MBSE concepts and the employment of the Systems Modeling Language (SysML), extremely large and complex systems can be modeled from conceptual design through all system lifecycles. The Operations Revitalization Initiative (OpsRev) seeks to leverage MBSE to modernize the aging Advanced Multi-Mission Operations Systems (AMMOS) into the Mission Operations System 2.0 (MOS 2.0). The MOS 2.0 will be delivered in a series of conceptual and design models and documents built using the modeling tool MagicDraw. To ensure model completeness and cohesiveness, it is imperative that the MOS 2.0 models adhere to the specifications, patterns and profiles of the Mission Service Architecture Framework, thus leading to the use of validation rules. This paper outlines the process by which validation rules are identified, designed, implemented and tested. Ultimately, these rules provide the ability to maintain model correctness and synchronization in a simple, quick and effective manner, thus allowing the continuation of project and system progress.

Model-based Systems Engineering (MBSE)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Holographic Fabrication of 3D Moiré Photonic Crystals Using Circularly Polarized Laser Beams and a Spatial Light Modulator

A moiré photonic crystal is an optical analog of twisted graphene. A 3D moiré photonic crystal is a new nano-/microstructure that is distinguished from bilayer twisted photonic crystals. Holographic fabrication of a 3D moiré photonic crystal is very difficult due to the coexistence of the bright and dark regions, where the exposure threshold is suitable for one region but not for the other. In this paper, we study the holographic fabrication of 3D moiré photonic crystals using an integrated system of a single reflective optical element (ROE) and a spatial light modulator (SLM) where nine beams (four inner beams + four outer beams + central beam) are overlapped. By modifying the phase and amplitude of the interfering beams, the interference patterns of 3D moiré photonic crystals are systemically simulated and compared with the holographic structures to gain a comprehensive understanding of SLM-based holographic fabrication. We report the holographic fabrication of phase and beam intensity ratio-dependent 3D moiré photonic crystals and their structural characterization. Superlattices modulated in the z-direction of 3D moiré photonic crystals have been discovered. This comprehensive study provides guidance for future pixel-by-pixel phase engineering in SLM for complex holographic structures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1996

Cloud Classification in Polar and Desert Regions and Smoke Classification from Biomass Burning Using a Hierarchical Neural Network

This research focuses on a new neural network scene classification technique. The task is to identify scene elements in Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometry (AVHRR) data from three scene types: polar, desert and smoke from biomass burning in South America (smoke). The ultimate goal of this research is to design and implement a computer system which will identify the clouds present on a whole-Earth satellite view as a means of tracking global climate changes. Previous research has reported results for rule-based systems (Tovinkere et at 1992, 1993) for standard back propagation (Watters et at. 1993) and for a hierarchical approach (Corwin et al 1994) for polar data. This research uses a hierarchical neural network with don't care conditions and applies this technique to complex scenes. A hierarchical neural network consists of a switching network and a collection of leaf networks. The idea of the hierarchical neural network is that it is a simpler task to classify a certain pattern from a subset of patterns than it is to classify a pattern from the entire set. Therefore, the first task is to cluster the classes into groups. The switching, or decision network, performs an initial classification by selecting a leaf network. The leaf networks contain a reduced set of similar classes, and it is in the various leaf networks that the actual classification takes place. The grouping of classes in the various leaf networks is determined by applying an iterative clustering algorithm. Several clustering algorithms were investigated, but due to the size of the data sets, the exhaustive search algorithms were eliminated. A heuristic approach using a confusion matrix from a lightly trained neural network provided the basis for the clustering algorithm. Once the clusters have been identified, the hierarchical network can be trained. The approach of using don't care nodes results from the difficulty in generating extremely complex surfaces in order to separate one class from all of the others. This approach finds pairwise separating surfaces and forms the more complex separating surface from combinations of simpler surfaces. This technique both reduces training time and improves accuracy over the previously reported results. Accuracies of 97.47%, 95.70%, and 99.05% were achieved for the polar, desert and smoke data sets.

Alexander, June↗

DOE OSTI2021

Occupancy-Driven Stochastic Decision Framework for Ranking Commercial Building Loads

For effective integration of building operations into the evolving demand response programs of the power grid, real-time decisions concerning the use of building appliances for grid services must excel on multiple criteria, ranging from the added value to occupants' comfort to the quality of the grid services. In this paper, we present a data-driven stochastic decision-support framework to dynamically rank load control alternatives in a commercial building, addressing the needs of multiple decision criteria (e.g. occupant comfort, grid service quality) under uncertainties in occupancy patterns. We adopt a stochastic multi-criteria decision algorithm recently applied to prioritize residential on/off loads, and extend it to i) consider complex load control decisions (e.g. dimming of lights, changing zone temperature set-points) in a commercial building; and ii) systematically integrate zonal occupancy patterns to better identify short-term (and time-varying) opportunities for grid service participation. We evaluate the performance of the proposed framework for curtailment of air-conditioning, lighting, and plug-loads in a multi-zone commercial office building for a range of design choices. With the help of a prototype system that integrates an interactive \textit{Data Analytics and Visualization} frontend we demonstrate a way for the building operators to monitor and change in real-time the available flexibility in energy consumption and to develop trust in the decision recommendations by interpreting the rationale behind the ranking.

Jain, Milan↗

DOE OSTI2020

A parametric analysis of oilfield design factors affecting the detectability and characterization of electrically conductive hydrofracks

Electrical responses in the vicinity of energized steel-cased well sources offer significant potential for monitoring induced fractures. However, the high complexity of well-fracture-host models spanning multiple length scales compels analysts to simplify their numerical models due to enormous computational costs. This consequently limits our understanding regarding monitoring capabilities and the limitations of electrical measurements on realistic hydraulically fracturing systems. In this paper, we use the hierarchical finite element approach to construct geoelectric models in which geometrically complex fractures and steel-cased wells are discretely represented in 3D conducting media without sacrificing the model realism and computation efficiency. We have discovered systematic numerical analyses of the electrical responses to evaluate the influences of borehole material conductivity and the source type as well as the effects of well geometry, conductivity contrast, source location, fracture growth, and fracture propagation. Furthermore, the numerical results indicate that the borehole material property has a strong control on the electrical potentials along the production and monitoring wells. The monopole source located at a steel-cased well results in a current density distribution that decays away from the source location throughout the well length, whereas the dipole source produces a current density that dominates mainly along the dipole length. Moreover, the conductivity contrast between the fractures and host does not change the overall pattern of the electrical potentials but varies its amplitude. The fracture models near different well systems indicate that the well geometry controls the entire distribution of potentials, while the characteristics of the voltage difference profiles along the wells before and after fracturing are insensitive to the well geometry and the well in which the source is located. Further, the hydraulic-fracturing models indicate that the voltage differences along the production well before and after fracturing have strong sensitivity to fracture growth and fracture set propagation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1983

Human respiration at rest in rapid compression and at high pressures and gas densities

The ventilation (V), end-tidal PCO2 (PACO2), and CO2 elimination rate were determined in men at rest breathing CO2-free gas over the pressure range 1-50 ATA and the gas density range 0.4-25 g/l, during slow and rapid compressions, at stable elevated ambient pressures and during slow decompressions. Progressive increase in pulmonary gas flow resistance due to elevation of ambient pressure and inspired gas density to the He-O2 equivalent of 5000 feet of seawater was found to produce a complex pattern of change in PACO2. It was found that as both ambient pressure and pulmonary gas flow resistance were progressively raised, PACO2 at first increased, went through a maximum, and then declined towards values near the 1 ATA level. It is concluded that this pattern of PACO2 change results from the interaction on ventilation of the increase in pulmonary resistance due to the elevation of gas density with the increase in respiratory drive postulated as due to generalized central nervous system excitation associated with exposure to high hydrostatic pressure. It is suggested that a similar interaction exists between increased gas flow resistance and the increase in respiratory drive related to nitrogen partial pressure and the resulting narcosis.

Gelfand, R.↗