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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2021

Solar +: Clean Energy Strategies for the Sunshine State (Final Technical Report (FTR) of the Florida Alliance for Accelerating Solar and Storage Technology Readiness (FAASSTeR))

This reports on a four-year effort to provide foundational research, analysis, strategies and assistance to help Florida, and other states that might learn from this work, to grow solar energy in conjunction with other distributed energy resources by addressing and overcoming existing barriers, and in way that delivers increased value. The start of this effort coincided with an inflection point of sorts into a new dawn for solar energy in Florida, where the Sunshine state’s national ranking in total installed solar, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), has rose from 13th to 4th. Florida has now become the national leader in annual utility-scale solar growth as dozens of large plants have come online. Also, during this time, Florida utilities have expressed a strong and growing interest in understanding the role of energy storage and how to best plan for and deploy this unique resource as part of strategies to grow solar. The utility-scale solar growth experienced has been fueled by the economics of solar cost-parity with natural gas combined cycle plants and Florida Public Service Commission’s (PSC) approval of cost-recovery for the Investor-Owned Utilities (IOU’s), primarily through the Solar Base Rate Adjustment (SoBRA) mechanism. This has led to gigawatts (GW’s) of rate-based solar capacity additions over several years, along with fairly significant amounts of energy storage. Meanwhile, municipal electric utilities, which, collectively, are the third largest source of power in the state, have been increasing solar considerably through power purchase agreements (PPA’s) and are on track to have close to 1 GW of grid-connected solar by 2024. Florida’s municipal utilities and the Florida Municipal Electric Association (FMEA) have been key partners in the Florida Alliance for Accelerating Solar and Storage Technology Readiness (FAASSTeR), formed to carry out this effort. The six largest of these have been Core Team utilities, engaging throughout the project in weekly calls, discussions, and project direction, participating in and hosting workshops and benefiting from technical assistance in several areas.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1992

Establishing a scientific and technical information program: Planning and resource management

In the last 50 years, technological advances have accelerated at a rate unprecedented in history. We are experiencing a tremendous expansion of scientific and technological effort in many directions, and the result is a fantastic increase in the accumulation of scientific and technical information (STI) and knowledge. An integral part of the research and development (R&D) process is the STI associated with it. STI is both a raw material (input) and a product (output) of this process. The topics addressed include the following: the value of STI, management of an STI program, program policy and guidance, organizational structure, data sources, training/orientation, and the current information environment.

Blados, Walter R.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Planetary protection, legal ambiguity and the decision making process for Mars sample return

As scientists and mission planners develop planetary protection requirements for future Mars sample return missions, they must recognize the socio-political context in which decisions about the mission will be made and pay careful attention to public concerns about potential back contamination of Earth. To the extent that planetary protection questions are unresolved or unaddressed at the time of an actual mission, they offer convenient footholds for public challenges in both legal and decision making realms, over which NASA will have little direct control. In this paper, two particular non-scientific areas of special concern are discussed in detail: 1) legal issues and 2) the decision making process. Understanding these areas is critical for addressing legitimate public concerns as well as for fulfilling procedural requirements regardless whether sample return evokes public controversy. Legal issues with the potential to complicate future missions include: procedural review under National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA); uncertainty about institutional control and authority; conflicting regulations and overlapping jurisdictions; questions about international treaty obligations and large scale impacts; uncertanities about the nature of the organism; and constitutional and regulatory concerns about quarantine, public health and safety. In light of these important legal issues, it is critical that NASA consider the role and timing of public involvement in the decision making process as a way of anticipating problem areas and preparing for legitimate public questions and challenges to sample return missions.

NASA Discipline Number 59-10↗
NASA NTRS2011

Protecting and Expanding the Richness and Diversity of Life, An Ethic for Astrobiology Research and Space Exploration

The ongoing search for life on other worlds and the prospects of eventual human exploration of the Moon and Mars indicate the need for new ethical guidelines to direct our actions as we search and how we respond if we discover microbial life on other worlds. Here we review how life on other worlds presents a novel question in environmental ethics. We propose a principle of protecting and expanding the richness and diversity of life as the basis of an ethic for astrobiology research and space exploration. There are immediate implications for the operational policies governing how we conduct the search for life on Mars and how we plan for human exploration throughout the Solar System.

human exploration↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the Known Unknown: Including Marine Sources of Greenhouse Gases in Climate Modeling

Researchers have recently estimated that Arctic submarine permafrost currently traps 60 billion tons of methane and contains 560 billion tons of organic carbon in seafloor sediments and soil, a giant pool of carbon with potentially large feedbacks on the climate system. Unlike terrestrial permafrost, the submarine permafrost system has remained a “known unknown” because of the difficulty in acquiring samples and measurements. Consequently, this potentially large carbon stock never yet considered in global climate models or policy discussions, represents a real wildcard in our understanding of Earth’s climate. This report summarizes our group’s effort at developing a numerical modeling framework designed to produce a first-of-its-kind estimate of Arctic methane gas releases from the marine sediments to the water column, and potentially to the atmosphere, where positive climate feedback may occur. Newly developed modeling capability supported by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program at Sandia National Laboratories now gives us the ability to probabilistically map gas distribution and quantity in the seabed by using a hybrid approach of geospatial machine learning, and predictive numerical thermodynamic ensemble modeling. The novelty in this approach is its ability to produce maps of useful data in regions that are only sparsely sampled, a common challenge in the Arctic, and a major obstacle to progress in the past. By applying this model to the circum-Arctic continental shelves and integrating the flux of free gas from in situ methanogenesis and dissociating gas hydrates from the sediment column under climate forcing, we can provide the most reliable estimate of a spatially and temporally varying source term for greenhouse gas flux that can be used by global oceanographic circulation and Earth system models (such as DOE’s E3SM). The result will allow us to finally tackle the wildcard of the submarine permafrost carbon system, and better inform us about the severity of future national security threats that sustained climate change poses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Potential State Regulatory Pathways to Facilitate Low-Carbon Fuels

States and the federal government are increasingly engaged in the challenges around decarbonizing the electric grid. In particular, regulators, consumers, stakeholders, and utilities recognize the need to carefully consider the role natural gas will play in a decarbonized future. A variety of technology and policy options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with natural gas use are available, including energy efficiency programs, demand reduction tools, strategic electrification, and strategies to reduce emissions from natural gas production, transportation, and consumption. Low-carbon fuels – mainly renewable natural gas (RNG) and clean hydrogen – are being considered an important component of decarbonization goals. RNG and hydrogen may be able to meaningfully reduce emissions from processes independent of geologic natural gas, displacing emissions of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. Although RNG and hydrogen are not cost-competitive today with geologic natural gas and are smaller in scale and potential than other decarbonization options, they can be explored as potential critical tools to decarbonize sectors that are difficult to electrify or shift off of natural gas entirely, such as air travel, industrial processes, maritime transport, long-distance trucking, space heating on cold days, and railroads (Nadel, 2022). The role of this report is to provide informational context for state utility regulators to understand the impacts of and challenges associated with broader integration of low-carbon fuels, followed by examples of state regulatory actions taken to date to facilitate the development of low-carbon fuels. Setting clear guidance to calculate the environmental benefits of low-carbon fuels and continuing federal and state investments in research and development to reduce costs relative to fossil fuels will be important steps to take to signal the desire to grow the market for these fuels. State public utility commissions may play a key role in setting regulatory frameworks for low-carbon fuels and ensuring that ratepayer funds, if utilized, are done so to further the public interest. This report is intended to summarize decisions that states have made to date on low-carbon fuels. In the spirit of understanding the current market and sharing information, this report provides success stories, and lessons learned across states as regulators implement varying strategies to achieve decarbonization objectives while maintaining their focus on affordability, safety, and reliability of the energy system. The report begins with an introduction of the role of natural gas in the U.S. economy (Section I) and background information on natural gas use, decarbonization, and low-carbon fuels (Section II). Next, the report describes the current market by discussing the scale of current production, emissions intensity, resource potential, and costs of low-carbon fuels compared to geologic natural gas (Section III). Following these sections, the report describes four strategies states have employed to facilitate low-carbon fuels: opening exploratory dockets, approving voluntary tariffs for customers, approving interconnection tariffs for producers, and considering portfolio-wide procurement targets (Section IV). This section lists states that have taken actions in each category, citing utility filings, commission decisions, stakeholder comments, and other relevant sources. Finally, the report concludes with suggested questions regulators may wish to consider regarding low-carbon fuels, in the interest of preparing to make decisions in the future (Section V). These questions include: Are there existing regulatory or technical barriers to voluntary purchases of low-carbon fuels? Can customers work with utilities to procure low-carbon fuels; are producers able to interconnect projects without significant barriers to entry? Should the infrastructure and/or commodity costs of low-carbon fuels be socialized among all ratepayers, or borne solely by the large commercial and industrial (C&I) customers currently driving the market? Should regulated natural gas and/or electric utilities own and operate low-carbon fuel production? How should regulators consider the unique decarbonization potential of low-carbon fuels, particularly for hard-to-abate sectors, in decision-making? Is additional direction or clarity from state policymakers needed? What no-regrets approaches can help facilitate both near-term RNG development and long-term development of hydrogen and other zero-carbon fuels? We collectively wish to express our gratitude to the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management, for supporting this report and other technical assistance resources for state regulators on natural gas topics. State regulators operate under a variety of policy environments, and states have vastly different types of energy resources, infrastructure, and customers. While there is no optimal regulatory, policy, or technological solution that will be successful in every state, state regulators can benefit by exchanging lessons learned with their peers across the country. We look forward to continued engagement with our fellow commissioners, commission staff, NARUC, the U.S. Department of Energy, and other stakeholders to develop sound regulation in the public interest.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Industrial emission inventories of iron and phosphorus for past, present and future

Global emission inventories of aerosol iron by species, and of phosphorus, were developed for inclusion in Earth system modeling that includes atmospheric transport. The time period covered was 1850-2010 to evaluate human influence. A variety of approaches to compare measured and modeled values of aerosol iron was synthesized to estimate how well anthropogenic emissions are known. Anthropogenic emissions are constrained within a factor of two and if there is a bias, it is an overestimation. The exception is shipping emissions, which may be underestimated. Direct radiative forcing by iron aerosol is small in the global average (0.02 W m -2 ) but reaches 0.25 W m -2 around source regions. Regions of high direct radiative forcing are poorly constrained by observations. The central value of change in oceanic net primary productivity due to iron deposition is about 0.26 PgC yr -1 , also highly localized. This leads to a decrease in atmospheric CO2 accumulation that corresponds to a forcing of 0.008 W m -2 since 1850 (0.003-0.18 W m -2 ). Emissions of particulate matter to 2050 were estimated in response to different policy scenarios, including the need for renewable energy installations under decarbonization scenarios. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the total metal demand is 195 Mt/yr in 2020, peaking at 270 Mt/yr in years 2040-2045; under the Rapid Decarbonization scenario, total metal demand is nearly doubled at its peak: 480 Mt/yr in year 2040. Primary particulate matter emissions attributable to processing metals for renewable energy are also amplified under rapid decarbonization, but total atmospheric emissions are much lower because of the shift away from combustion.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

JISEA-CSU Sustainable Agriculture Workshop [Slides]

The JISEA-CSU Sustainable Agriculture Workshop was co-hosted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis Sustainable Agriculture Catalyzer and the Colorado State University Ag Innovation Center, and sponsored by the Colorado-Wyoming Climate Resilience Engine. The workshop brought together researchers, agricultural producers, technology innovators, investors, and policymakers to examine the past, present, and future of the U.S. agriculture and energy strategy. The workshop will feature presentations, panels, and interactive activities that dive into the successes and challenges of the industry to help inform the direction of future research efforts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Global Carbon Budget 2024

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC) are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The global net uptake of CO2 by the ocean (SOCEAN, called the ocean sink) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2 products (fCO2 is the fugacity of CO2). The global net uptake of CO2 by the land (SLAND, called the land sink) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, and Earth system models. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (BIM), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2023, EFOS increased by 1.3 % relative to 2022, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is not included), and ELUC was 1.0 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (40.6 ± 3.2 GtCO2 yr−1). Also, for 2023, GATM was 5.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.79 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1; ppm denotes parts per million), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.3 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a near-zero BIM (−0.02 GtC yr−1). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2023 reached 419.31 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2024 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2023 of +0.8 % (−0.2 % to 1.7 %) globally and an atmospheric CO2 concentration increase by 2.87 ppm, reaching 422.45 ppm, 52 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean of and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2023, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows the following: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink. This living-data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2024 (Friedlingstein et al., 2024).

Friedlingstein, Pierre (ORCID:0000000333094739)↗
NASA NTRS1990

Artificial intelligence and design: Opportunities, research problems and directions

The issues of industrial productivity and economic competitiveness are of major significance in the U.S. at present. By advancing the science of design, and by creating a broad computer-based methodology for automating the design of artifacts and of industrial processes, we can attain dramatic improvements in productivity. It is our thesis that developments in computer science, especially in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and in related areas of advanced computing, provide us with a unique opportunity to push beyond the present level of computer aided automation technology and to attain substantial advances in the understanding and mechanization of design processes. To attain these goals, we need to build on top of the present state of AI, and to accelerate research and development in areas that are especially relevant to design problems of realistic complexity. We propose an approach to the special challenges in this area, which combines 'core work' in AI with the development of systems for handling significant design tasks. We discuss the general nature of design problems, the scientific issues involved in studying them with the help of AI approaches, and the methodological/technical issues that one must face in developing AI systems for handling advanced design tasks. Looking at basic work in AI from the perspective of design automation, we identify a number of research problems that need special attention. These include finding solution methods for handling multiple interacting goals, formation problems, problem decompositions, and redesign problems; choosing representations for design problems with emphasis on the concept of a design record; and developing approaches for the acquisition and structuring of domain knowledge with emphasis on finding useful approximations to domain theories. Progress in handling these research problems will have major impact both on our understanding of design processes and their automation, and also on several fundamental questions that are of intrinsic concern to AI. We present examples of current AI work on specific design tasks, and discuss new directions of research, both as extensions of current work and in the context of new design tasks where domain knowledge is either intractable or incomplete. The domains discussed include Digital Circuit Design, Mechanical Design of Rotational Transmissions, Design of Computer Architectures, Marine Design, Aircraft Design, and Design of Chemical Processes and Materials. Work in these domains is significant on technical grounds, and it is also important for economic and policy reasons.

Amarel, Saul↗
NASA NTRS2017

Cloudy with a Chance of Solar Flares: The Sun as a Natural Hazard

Space weather is a naturally occurring phenomenon that represents a quantifiable risk to space- and ground-based infrastructure as well as society at large. Space weather hazards include permanent and correctable faults in computer systems, Global Positioning System (GPS) and high-frequency communication disturbances, increased airline passenger and astronaut radiation exposure, and electric grid disruption. From the National Space Weather Strategy, published by the Office of Science and Technology Policy in October 2015, space weather refers to the dynamic conditions of the space environment that arise from emissions from the Sun, which include solar flares, solar energetic particles, and coronal mass ejections. These emissions can interact with Earth and its surrounding space, including the Earth's magnetic field, potentially disrupting technologies and infrastructures. Space weather is measured using a range of space- and ground-based platforms that directly monitor the Sun, the Earth's magnetic field, the conditions in interplanetary space and impacts at Earth's surface, like neutron ground-level enhancement. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Space Weather Research Center and their international collaborators in government, industry, and academia are working towards improved techniques for predicting space weather as part of the strategy and action plan to better quantify and mitigate space weather hazards. In addition to accurately measuring and predicting space weather, we also need to continue developing more advanced techniques for evaluating space weather impacts on space- and ground-based infrastructure. Within the Earth's atmosphere, elevated neutron flux driven by atmosphere-particle interactions from space weather is a primary risk source. Ground-based neutron sources form an essential foundation for quantifying space weather impacts in a variety of systems.

neutron flux↗
NASA NTRS2018

Climate Change and Drought: From Past to Future

Drought is a complex and multivariate phenomenon influenced by diverse physical and biological processes. Such complexity precludes simplistic explanations of cause and effect, making investigations of climate change and drought a challenging task. Here, we review important recent advances in our understanding of drought dynamics, drawing from studies of paleoclimate, the historical record, and model simulations of the past and future. Paleoclimate studies of drought variability over the last two millennia have progressed considerably through the development of new reconstructions and analyses combining reconstructions with process-based models. This work has generated new evidence for tropical Pacific forcing of megadroughts in Southwest North America, provided additional constraints for interpreting climate change projections in poorly characterized regions like East Africa, and demonstrated the exceptional magnitude of many modern era droughts. Development of high resolution proxy networks has lagged in many regions (e.g., South America, Africa), however, and quantitative comparisons between the paleoclimate record, models, and observations remain challenging. Fingerprints of anthropogenic climate change consistent with long-term warming projections have been identified for droughts in California, the Pacific Northwest, Western North America, and the Mediterranean. In other regions (e.g., Southwest North America, Australia, Africa), however, the degree to which climate change has affected recent droughts is more uncertain. While climate change-forced declines in precipitation have been detected for the Mediterranean, in most regions, the climate change signal has manifested through warmer temperatures that have increased evaporative losses and reduced snowfall and snowpack levels, amplifying deficits in soil moisture and runoff despite uncertain precipitation changes. Over the next century, projections indicate that warming will increase drought risk and severity across much of the subtropics and mid-latitudes in both hemispheres, a consequence of regional precipitation declines and widespread warming. For many regions, however, the magnitude, robustness, and even direction of climate change-forced trends in drought depends on how drought is defined, with often large differences across indicators of precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, and vegetation health. Increasing confidence in climate change projections of drought and the associated impacts will likely depend on resolving uncertainties in processes that are currently poorly constrained (e.g., land-atmosphere interactions, terrestrial vegetation) and improved consideration of the role for human policies and management in ameliorating and adapting to changes in drought risk.

Detection and attribution↗
NASA NTRS2019

Global Carbon Budget 2019

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (E(FF)) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (E(LUC)), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (S(OCEAN)) and terrestrial CO2 sink (S(LAND)) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B(IM)), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009–2018), E(FF) was 9.5±0.5 GtC/yr, E(LUC) 1.5±0.7 GtC/yr, G(ATM) 4.9±0.02 GtC/yr (2.3±0.01 ppm/yr), S(OCEAN) 2.5±0.6 GtC/yr, and S(LAND) 3.2±0.6 GtC/yr, with a budget imbalance B(IM) of 0.4 GtC/yr indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in E(FF) was about 2.1 % and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC/yr, reaching 10 GtC/yr for the first time in history, E(LUC) was 1.5±0.7 GtC/yr, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC/yr (42.5±3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, G(ATM) was 5.1±0.2 GtC/yr (2.4±0.1 ppm/yr), S(OCEAN) was 2.6±0.6 GtC/yr, and S(LAND) was 3.5±0.7 GtC/yr, with a B(IM) of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in E(FF) of +0.6 % (range of −0.2 % to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC/yr persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013).

global carbon budget 2019↗
DOE OSTI2021

U.S. Department of Energy Solar Decathlon

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Decathlon® Design Challenge is a collegiate competition that challenges student teams to design high-performance buildings that push the boundaries of the industry. In the 2020 Design Challenge, DOE piloted the Design Partners Program, a low-risk opportunity for builders and building owners to harness student innovation and explore zero energy design for current or upcoming projects. Design Partners provide a student team of architects and engineers with project requirements. By the end of the Design Challenge, Design Partners receive a zero-energy design alternative and cost estimate for their project. The collaboration allows Design Partners to incorporate innovative concepts such as grid-interactivity, resilience, and low embodied carbon in a low-risk environment. It also provides the future generation of engineers and architects with invaluable experience designing a building for a client under real-world circumstances. This article summarizes the current policy, technology, health, and economic trends that make zero energy buildings desirable and feasible, and presents the value of the Solar Decathlon to industry. We highlight innovative solutions 2020 Design Partner pilot projects are bringing to the building industry.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global Carbon Budget 2021

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries' climate progress. For the year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4 % relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of 10.2 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (37.4 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2020, GATM was 5.0 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.9 ± 1 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.8 GtC yr−1. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2021 suggest a rebound in EFOS relative to 2020 of +4.8 % (4.2 % to 5.4 %) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2020, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this dataset (Friedlingstein et al., 2020, 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021).

Friedlingstein, Pierre (ORCID:0000000333094739)↗
NASA NTRS1994

Weapons to widgets: Organic systems and public policy for tech transfer

Large cuts in defense spending cause serious repercussions throughout the American economy. One means to counter the negative effects of defense reductions is to redirect federal dollars to temporarily prop up defense industries and, over the longer-term, stimulate growth of new nondefense industries. The creation of non-defense products and industries by channeling ideas from public laboratories into the private sector manufacturing facilities, known as technology transfer, is being undertaken in a massive program that has high visibility, large amounts of money, and broad federal agency involvement. How effectively federal money can be directed toward stimulating the creation of non-defense products will define the strength of the economy, (i.e., tax base, employment level, trade balance, capital investments, etc.), over the next decade. Key functions of the tech transfer process are technology and market assessment, capital formation, manufacturing feasibility, sales and distribution, and business organization creation. Those, however, are not functions typically associated with the federal government. Is the government prepared to provide leadership in those areas? This paper suggests organic systems theory as a means to structure the public sector's actions to provide leadership in functional areas normally outside their scope of expertise. By applying new ideas in organization theory, can we design government action to efficiently and effectively transfer technologies?

Cargo, Russell A.↗
NASA NTRS2000

The Dynamics of a Semi-Arid Region in Response to Climate and Water - Use Policy

The objectives of this project were to determine the response of semi-arid ecosystems to the combined forcings of climate variability and anthropogenic stress. Arid and semi-arid systems encompass close to 40% of the worlds land surface. The ecology of these regions are principally limited by water, and as the water resources wax and wane, so should the health and vigor of the ecosystems. Water, however, is a necessary and critical resource for humans living in these same regions. Thus for many and and semi-arid regions the natural systems and human systems are in direct competition for a limited resource. Increasing competition through development of and and semi-arid regions, export of water resources, as well as potential persistent changes in weather patterns are likely to lead to fundamental changes in carrying capacity, resilience, and ecology of these regions. A detailed understanding of these systems respond to forcing on a regional and local scale is required in order to better prepare for and manage future changes in the availability of water. In the Owens Valley CA, decadal changes in rainfall and increased use of groundwater resources by Los Angles (which derives 60-70% of its water from this region) have resulted in a large-scale experiment on the impacts of these changes in semi-arid ecosystems. This project works directly with the Inyo County Water Department (local water authority) and the Los Angles Department of Water and Power (regional demand on water resources) to understand changes, their causes, and impacts. Very detailed records have been kept for a number of selected sites in the valley which provide essential ground truth. These results are then scaled up through remote sensed data to regions scale to assess large scale patterns and link them to the fundamental decisions regarding the water resources of this region. A fundamental goal is to understand how resilient the native ecosystems are to large changes in water resources. Are they are on a spring (remove and return resources, do the systems return to the original state) or a vector (when water returns have the systems fundamentally changed).

Mustard, John F.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cost Reduction of School Bus Fleet Electrification With Optimized Charging and Distributed Energy Resources: Preprint

Considerations for electrifying school buses are presented with an analysis of battery sizing to match bus driving requirements. The charging and vehicle-to-building dispatch of the electric school buses were optimized to evaluate the potential to reduce the impact of the bus charging on the school's electric utility bill. Distributed energy resources (DER) and flexible building loads were also considered with the school bus electrification to evaluate the further reduction in energy costs with enhanced system integration and optimized dispatch. The effect of degradation on the school bus batteries was analyzed to determine if the smart charging and vehicle-to-building battery operation decreases the life of the battery. The results show that there is an opportunity to mitigate the increase of electric utility bills with improved charging controls and bi-directionally operating the school bus batteries to reduce building demand charges. The battery degradation analysis using dispatch with optimized charging and discharging shows acceptable battery life.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗