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DOE OSTI2016

Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area

We perform a land-surface model intercomparison to investigate how the simulation of permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) varies among six modern stand-alone land-surface models (CLM4.5, CoLM, ISBA, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, UVic). Here, we also examine the variability in simulated permafrost area and distribution introduced by five different methods of diagnosing permafrost (from modeled monthly ground temperature, mean annual ground and air temperatures, air and surface frost indexes). There is good agreement (99 to 135 × 10 4 km 2 ) between the two diagnostic methods based on air temperature which are also consistent with the observation-based estimate of actual permafrost area (101 ×10 4 km 2 ). However the uncertainty (1 to 128 × 10 4 km 2 ) using the three methods that require simulation of ground temperature is much greater. Moreover simulated permafrost distribution on the TP is generally only fair to poor for these three methods (diagnosis of permafrost from monthly, and mean annual ground temperature, and surface frost index), while permafrost distribution using air-temperature-based methods is generally good. Model evaluation at field sites highlights specific problems in process simulations likely related to soil texture specification, vegetation types and snow cover. Models are particularly poor at simulating permafrost distribution using the definition that soil temperature remains at or below 0°C for 24 consecutive months, which requires reliable simulation of both mean annual ground temperatures and seasonal cycle, and hence is relatively demanding. Although models can produce better permafrost maps using mean annual ground temperature and surface frost index, analysis of simulated soil temperature profiles reveals substantial biases. The current generation of land-surface models need to reduce biases in simulated soil temperature profiles before reliable contemporary permafrost maps and predictions of changes in future permafrost distribution can be made for the Tibetan Plateau.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Interconnection Queue Impacts Using Hosting Capacity Analysis

The interconnection queue has been identified as a bottleneck in the efforts to shift the nations generation resources towards renewable sources and meet various state and federal goals. Efforts such as the interconnection innovation e-Xchange (i2X) are therefore trying to come up with ways in which the queue could be altered to make interconnection faster, cheaper, and fairer. This paper proposes using hosting capacity analysis methods to simulate the evolution of a power system as new resources are added. Modeling the interconnection process in this way enables simulation based study of various policy decisions for queue management and cost allocation. Sample results are presented to illustrate how some queue modifications might play out both in distribution and transmission systems.

Distributed Energy Resources, Interconnection↗

DOE OSTI2023

Development of Building Design Optimization Methodology: Residential Building Applications

Building design optimization is a highly complex problem, requiring long computational running processes because of the many options that exist when a building is being designed. This paper introduces an integrated approach through which to perform this optimization within an acceptable time frame. The approach includes the methods of variable selection, model simplification, and a sequential optimization process. Using singular value decomposition, a large number of design variables is reduced to a smaller subset that can be solved more quickly through the optimization algorithm. To expedite the variable selection process, a modeling approach that quickly simulates annual energy consumption was developed to replace full annual energy simulations. The developed methodology was applied to two residential buildings in the US, and the results are discussed herein. To assess the accuracy of the integrated optimization methodology, the optimized life cycle costs are compaa variables demonstrating the strongest contributions in the optimization study were identified. The proposed methodology significantly shortened the time requirements for the optimization processes of the two case studies by 74% and 84%; the optimized life cycle costs were within 0.05% and 0.06%, respectively, of the optimum point.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

SWAT model application for evaluating agricultural conservation practice effectiveness in reducing phosphorous loss from the Western Lake Erie Basin

Lake Erie is threatened by eutrophication and harmful algal blooms due to excess nutrient loading from agricultural sources. Agricultural conservation practices (ACPs) have been developed and implemented to reduce nutrient losses but estimating ACP effectiveness is challenging. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been used to investigate ACP effectiveness for water quality improvement. Many SWAT applications have been developed by different investigators to evaluate ACP effectiveness for reducing nutrient, particularly phosphorus (P), loading in the agriculturally-dominated Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB). Our objective is to establish what has been achieved by past modeling research and make suggestions for future applications and improvements. We synthesized the findings of 28 SWAT modeling studies within the WLEB. Models generally performed satisfactorily against accepted criteria for streamflow and sediment, but performance for P loads, like soluble reactive P, was mostly “unsatisfactory”. The “unsatisfactory” performance maybe due to imperfections and idealizations in model formulations and/or parameterization. Thus, simulations of P transport and transformation processes need improvement. In addition, model parameter selection is the key part of model set-up. Most SWAT modeling studies used default values during initial set-up, then performed calibration and validation. It was found that the calibrated P related parameter values varied widely across different studies, even within the same watershed with some values unrealistic for the study areas. The phenomena of different combinations of model parameters producing similar outputs indicates equifinality. Equifinality in the baseline model may impact results when ACPs are incorporated. Furthermore, the unrealistic values used in ACP assessment undermine the credibility of ACP effectiveness. Future model applications should try to re-examine the calibrated P parameters and make sure they are realistic for the study area as well as reduce equifinality by constraining the model with characterization of watershed conditions, better understanding of hydrologic processes, and parameter values based on real-world observations. As a result, future model applications should focus on improving P transport and transformation processes, using measured watershed characteristics for parameterization, and improving reflections of climate change, which could result in more accurate assessments of ACP effectiveness to meet targeted goals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Open-Source Virtual Testbed for a Real Net-Zero Energy Community

Net zero energy communities (NZECs) are critical to ensure sustainability and resilience of modernized power systems. System modeling helps overcome technical challenges in designing and operating NZECs. In this paper, we present the modeling work based on a real NZEC. Two sets of models are developed: higher-fidelity physics-based models considering the interaction between subsystems of the studied NZEC and capturing fast-dynamics; and lower-fidelity data-driven models requiring less resource to establish and/or run. All models are validated against measurements from this real NZEC. In addition, we create a simulation framework which streamlines the processes for simulation and thus allows using developed models to form a virtual testbed. To demonstrate the usage of the virtual testbed, a case study is conducted where a building-to-grid integration control is evaluated via simulation. The evaluation results suggest that the tested control significantly smooths the power draw of the studied community and doesn’t sacrifice the thermal comfort to a great extent.

Huang, Sen↗

DOE OSTI2025

Turbulent Heating in Collisionless Low-beta Plasmas: Imbalance, Landau Damping, and Electron–Ion Energy Partition

An understanding of how turbulent energy is partitioned between ions and electrons in weakly collisional plasmas is crucial for modeling many astrophysical systems. Using theory and simulations of a four-dimensional reduced model of low-beta gyrokinetics (the “Kinetic Reduced Electron Heating Model”), we investigate the dependence of collisionless heating processes on plasma beta and imbalance (normalized cross-helicity). These parameters are important because they control the helicity barrier, the formation of which divides the parameter space into two distinct regimes with remarkably different properties. In the first, at lower beta and/or imbalance, the absence of a helicity barrier allows the cascade of injected power to proceed to small (perpendicular) scales, but its slow cascade rate makes it susceptible to significant electron Landau damping, in some cases leading to a marked steepening of the magnetic spectra on scales above the ion Larmor radius. In the second, at higher beta and/or imbalance, the helicity barrier halts the cascade, confining electron Landau damping to scales above the steep “transition-range” spectral break, resulting in dominant ion heating. We formulate quantitative models of these processes that compare well to simulations in each regime, and combine them with results of previous studies to construct a simple formula for the electron–ion heating ratio as a function of beta and imbalance. This model predicts a “winner takes all” picture of low-beta plasma heating, where a small change in the fluctuations' properties at large scales (the imbalance) can cause a sudden switch between electron and ion heating.

Interplanetary turbulence↗

DOE OSTI2020

Materials Development and Advanced Process Simulation for Additive Manufacturing with Fiber-Reinforced Thermoplastics (Final Technical Report)

DuPont, Local Motors, and the Composites Manufacturing and Simulation Center (CMSC) at Purdue worked together to advance process simulation capabilities for Additive Manufacturing (AM) and develop printable short fiber reinforced semi-crystalline engineering thermoplastics suitable for vehicle components. DuPont provided one candidate thermoplastic material, which was evaluated against the following three criteria: 1) Printability using extrusion additive manufacturing processes. 2) Suitability for vehicle applications based on mechanical coupon screening tests. 3) Predictive capability of process simulations. Indiana Manufacturing Institute provided modeling and simulation technology and access to Purdue’s lab scale AM printer. Local Motors provided mechanical property requirements and printed demonstration prototype components using their Thermwood Large Scale Additive Manufacturing (LSAM) printer. To meet the performance and cost requirements of the automotive industry, high fiber content semi-crystalline engineering materials are required. Printing experience and property data for a 50% by weight short glass fiber reinforced material were gathered. Further, material properties required for simulating the printing process with the glass-fiber reinforced material were characterized. Knowledge was acquired with regards to the processability and performance of this thermoplastic material. Predictions of part deformation and crystallinity level were verified against experimental observations. Any significant results other than verification of simulation, e.g., novel material identified here would be impactful.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2015

Modeling the Kinetics of Deactivation of Catalysts during the Upgrading of Bio-Oil

The fouling of catalysts for the upgrading of bio-oils appears to be very different from the fouling of catalysts for the hydroprocessing of petroleum-derived streams. There are two reasons for the differences: a) bio-oil contains polarizable components and phases that can stabilize reaction intermediates exhibiting charge separation and b) bio-oil components contain functional groups that contain O, notably carbonyls (>C=O). Aldol condensation of carbonyls affords very different pathways for the production of oligomeric, refractory deposits than does dehydrogenation/polymerization of petroleum-derived hydrocarbons. Colloquially, we refer to the bio-oil derived deposits as “gunk” to discriminate them from coke, the carbonaceous deposits encountered in petroleum refining. Classical gelation, appears to be a suitable model for the “gunking” reaction. Our work has helped explain the temperature range at which bio-oil should be pre-processed (“stabilized”) to confer longer lifetimes on the catalysts used for more severe processing. Stochastic modeling (kinetic Monte Carlo simulations) appears suitable to capture the rates of oligomerization of bio-oil. This work was supported by the US Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Bioenergy Technologies Office. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is a multiprogram national laboratory operated for DOE by Battelle.

bio-oil upgrading↗

DOE OSTI2016

A separate phase drag model and a surrogate approximation for simulation of the steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) process

General ensemble phase averaged equations for multiphase flows have been specialized for the simulation of the steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) process. In the average momentum equation, fluid-solid and fluid-fluid viscous interactions are represented by separate force terms. This equation has a form similar to that of Darcy’s law for multiphase flow but augmented by the fluid-fluid viscous forces. Models for these fluid-fluid interactions are suggested and implemented into the numerical code CartaBlanca. Numerical results indicate that the model captures the main features of the multiphase flow in the SAGD process, but the detailed features, such as plumes are missed. We find that viscous coupling among the fluid phases is important. Advection time scales for the different fluids differ by several orders of magnitude because of vast viscosity differences. Numerically resolving all of these time scales is time consuming. To address this problem, we introduce a steam surrogate approximation to increase the steam advection time scale, while keeping the mass and energy fluxes well approximated. This approximation leads to about a 40-fold speed-up in execution speed of the numerical calculations at the cost of a few percent error in the relevant quantities.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2016

A comprehensive simulation model of the performance of photochromic films in absorbance-modulation-optical-lithography

Optical lithography is the most prevalent method of fabricating micro-and nano-scale structures in the semiconductor industry due to the fact that patterning using photons is fast, accurate and provides high throughput. However, the resolution of this technique is inherently limited by the physical phenomenon of diffraction. Absorbance-Modulation-Optical Lithography (AMOL), a recently developed technique has been successfully demonstrated to be able to circumvent this diffraction limit. AMOL employs a dual-wavelength exposure system in conjunction with spectrally selective reversible photo-transitions in thin films of photochromic molecules to achieve patterning of features with sizes beyond the far-field diffraction limit. We have developed a finite-element-method based full-electromagnetic-wave solution model that simulates the photo-chemical processes that occur within the thin film of the photochromic molecules under illumination by the exposure and confining wavelengths in AMOL. This model allows us to understand how the material characteristics influence the confinement to sub-diffraction dimensions, of the transmitted point spread function (PSF) of the exposure wavelength inside the recording medium. The model reported here provides the most comprehensive analysis of the AMOL process to-date, and the results show that the most important factors that govern the process, are the polarization of the two beams, the ratio of the intensities of the two wavelengths, the relative absorption coefficients and the concentration of the photochromic species, the thickness of the photochromic layer and the quantum yields of the photoreactions at the two wavelengths. The aim of this work is to elucidate the requirements of AMOL in successfully circumventing the far-field diffraction limit.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-Resolution Regional Atmosphere–Ocean–Wave Coupled Simulations of Hurricane Henri (2021)

To explore the integrated effects of ocean and ocean surface wave related physical processes on TC simulations, a set of three model simulations is performed. * In experiment 'A', the event is modeled using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model alone with prescribed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) at 6-hour intervals. * In experiment ‘AO,’ WRF is coupled with the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM), enabling variable exchange between atmosphere and ocean, but without considering ocean surface wave-related physical processes. * In experiment ‘AOW’, WRF, FVCOM, and Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) exchange variables with each other every hour through the OASIS3-MCT Coupler to allow direct and indirect atmosphere-ocean-wave interactions. * Observational data are also included in this dataset (Dropsonde, HRD-Radar, NDBC_wave). All simulations are initialized at 18:00 UTC on August 19, 2021, within a domain encompassing the western North Atlantic Ocean. The atmospheric domain features a horizontal resolution of 3 km. The ocean domain, which covers a substantial portion of the WRF ocean domain, employs an unstructured triangular grid with resolutions ranging from 3 km near the coast to 9 km in the open ocean, effectively resolving the complex coastline of the U.S. Northeast Coast. Initial and boundary conditions for the atmosphere model are obtained from the 6-hourly 0.25° NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) Global Forecast System (GFS; NCEP, 2015) data.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-Resolution Regional Atmosphere–Ocean–Wave Coupled Simulations of Hurricane Henri (2021)

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Molecular dynamics simulation of seeded crystal growth in glass

The mechanism of non-congruent growth of a crystal from glass has been sought using molecular dynamics simulations. Specifically, as a model of this process, the growth of a lithium niobate (LiNbO 3 ) crystal seed sandwiched between two lithium niobosilicate (LNS) glass slabs has been simulated as a function of time and temperature. The growth of pre-existing crystal is strongly affected by the orientation of crystal seed, temperature, and the SiO 2 concentration in the surrounding LNS glass matrix. The orientation of LiNbO 3 seed surface that has inherently larger interplanar distance results in a relatively slower crystal growth. The addition of SiO 2 to LNS system significantly decreases the crystal growth, which primarily occurs in the region devoid of Si. The suppressive effect of SiO 2 on growth rate can be traced to the existence of defect complex comprising of Si substituted at the Nb site and a nearby Nb vacancy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2019

Oxy-Combustion Modeling for Direct-Fired Supercritical CO 2 Power Cycles

We report that supercritical CO 2 power cycles for fossil energy power generation will likely employ oxy-combustion at very high pressures, possibly exceeding 300 bar. At these high pressures, a direct fired oxy-combustor is more likely to behave like a rocket engine than any type of conventional gas turbine combustor. Issues such as injector design, wall heat transfer, and combustion dynamics may play a challenging role in combustor design. Computational fluid dynamics modeling will not only be useful, but may be a necessity in the combustor design process. To accurately model turbulent reacting flows, combustion submodels appropriate for the conditions of interest as defined by the turbulent time and length scales as well as chemical kinetic time scales are necessary. Here, this paper presents a comparison of various turbulence–chemistry interaction (TCI) modeling approaches on a canonical, single injector, direct-fired sCO 2 combustor. Large eddy simulation is used to model the turbulent combustion process with varying levels of injector oxygen concentration while comparing the effect of the combustion submodel on CO emissions and flame shape. While experimental data are not yet available to validate the simulations, the sensitivity of CO production and flame shape can be studied as a function of combustion modeling approach and oxygen concentration in an effort to better understand how to approach combustion modeling at these unique conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Oil Recovery Prediction for Polymer Flood Field Test of Heavy Oil on Alaska North Slope Via Machine Assisted Reservoir Simulation

The first ever polymer flood field pilot to enhance the recovery of heavy oils on the Alaska North Slope is ongoing. This study constructs and calibrates a reservoir simulation model to predict the oil recovery performance of the pilot through machine-assisted reservoir simulation techniques. To replicate the early water breakthrough observed during waterflooding, transmissibility contrasts are introduced into the simulation model, forcing viscous fingering effects. In the ensuing polymer flood, these transmissibility contrasts are reduced to replicate the restoration of injection conformance during polymer flooding, as indicated by a significant decrease in water cut. Later, transmissibility contrasts are reinstated to replicate a water surge event observed in one of the producing wells during polymer flooding. This event may represent decreased injection conformance from fracture overextension; its anticipated occurrence in the other production well is included in the final forecast. The definition of polymer retention in the simulator incorporates the tailing effect reported in laboratory studies; this tailing effect is useful to the simultaneous history match of producing water cut and produced polymer concentration. The top 24 best-matched simulation models produced at each stage of the history matching process are used to forecast oil recovery. The final forecast clearly demonstrates that polymer flooding significantly increases the heavy oil production for this field pilot compared to waterflooding alone. This exercise displays that a simulation model is only valid for prediction if flow behavior in the reservoir remains consistent with that observed during the history matched period. Critically, this means that a simulation model calibrated for waterflooding may not fully capture the benefits of an enhanced oil recovery process such as polymer flooding. Therefore, caution is recommended in using basic waterflood simulation models to scope potential enhanced oil recovery projects.

Keith, Cody Douglas↗

DOE OSTI2020

Heat Integration Optimization and Dynamic Modeling Investigation for Advancing the Coal-Direct Chemical Looping Process

The purpose of the project is to address the optimization and startup operation of a modular coal direct chemical looping (CDCL) combustion system integrated with a steam cycle for power generation to reduce the risks involved in further scale-up of the technology. The modular reactor design of the CDCL process provides flexibility in the fabrication of the reactor and in its operating capacity (i.e. turndown ratio) at the cost of a more complex heat exchange network (HEN) design and integration. To address the technology gaps and advance the efficiency and economic feasibility of the CDCL technology, the project will perform a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the integration of a modular CDCL reactor system and a steam cycle system under both static and transient conditions via HEN process performance simulations and system dynamic modeling, respectively. The scope of work consists of 1) Experimental and computational studies of the CDCL combustor reactor 2) Comprehensive static (i.e. steady-state) system HEN design analysis in CDCL 550 MWe commercial unit for power generation and 3) Dynamic modeling of site specific design of 10MWe CDCL large pilot plant. The project team has successfully developed and validated a kinetic model for the oxidation of oxygen carriers in the combustor using the unreacted shrinking core model (UCSM). The model is capable of capturing the oxidation kinetics of fully or partially reduced oxygen carrier particles. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is developed to simulate the hydrodynamics, heat transfer, and chemical reaction occurring in the CDCL combustor. The model is developed in MFIX and ANSYS Fluent. Key aspects of CDCL combustor operation, including heat transfer, oxygen carrier oxidation, and the transport of oxygen carrier particles, are simulated using this CFD model. The HEN for a commercial scale 550 MWe CDCL power plant is simulated and optimized using ASPEN Plus. Practical design considerations are incorporated based on industrial experiences. The performance and cost for the commercial CDCL plant is updated based on these analyses. A dynamic model for the 10 MWe CDCL pilot plant is developed in ProTRAX simulation software. The model is based on the pilot plant design developed in project DE-FE0027654 “10 MWe CDCL Large Pilot Plang – Pre-FEED Study” and the steam cycle data obtained from Dover Light & Power plant. The transient behaviors during pilot plant load variation are simulated using the dynamic model.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2023

Benchmarking the PCMCI Causal Discovery Algorithm for Spatiotemporal Systems

Causal discovery algorithms construct hypothesized causal graphs that depict causal dependencies among variables in observational data. While powerful, the accuracy of these algorithms is highly sensitive to the underlying dynamics of the system in ways that have not been fully characterized in the literature. In this report, we benchmark the PCMCI causal discovery algorithm in its application to gridded spatiotemporal systems. Effectively computing grid-level causal graphs on large grids will enable analysis of the causal impacts of transient and mobile spatial phenomena in large systems, such as the Earth’s climate. We evaluate the performance of PCMCI with a set of structural causal models, using simulated spatial vector autoregressive processes in one- and two-dimensions. We develop computational and analytical tools for characterizing these processes and their associated causal graphs. Our findings suggest that direct application of PCMCI is not suitable for the analysis of dynamical spatiotemporal gridded systems, such as climatological data, without significant preprocessing and downscaling of the data. PCMCI requires unrealistic sample sizes to achieve acceptable performance on even modestly sized problems and suffers from a notable curse of dimensionality. This work suggests that, even under generous structural assumptions, significant additional algorithmic improvements are needed before causal discovery algorithms can be reliably applied to grid-level outputs of earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

High Speed Tribology of the Head-Disk Interface by Computer Simulation Final Report CRADA No. TC-297-92-C

The purpose of this project is to develop and validate a molecular dynamics model of nanoscale tribological processes occurring inside the head-disk interface of magnetic recording devices. Within the three years of the project the partners will: write a new molecular dynamics computer simulation code for growth, sliding and impact inside the head-disk interface; identify accurate models for chemical bonding within coatings used to protect magnetic surfaces, especially amorphous carbon thin films; simulate the growth of amorphous carbon thin films and analyse the resulting chemical bonding; simulate friction and wear processes relevant to the head-disk interface; and validate the model through comparison with AFM and nanoindenter studies of friction and wear of amorphous carbon thin films.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗