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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Simple effective conservative treatment of uncertainty from sparse samples of random functions

This paper examines the variability of predicted responses when multiple stress-strain curves (reflecting variability from replicate material tests) are propagated through a finite element model of a ductile steel can being slowly crushed. Over 140 response quantities of interest (including displacements, stresses, strains, and calculated measures of material damage) are tracked in the simulations. Each response quantity’s behavior varies according to the particular stress-strain curves used for the materials in the model. We desire to estimate response variability when only a few stress-strain curve samples are available from material testing. Propagation of just a few samples will usually result in significantly underestimated response uncertainty relative to propagation of a much larger population that adequately samples the presiding random-function source. A simple classical statistical method, Tolerance Intervals, is tested for effectively treating sparse stress-strain curve data. The method is found to perform well on the highly nonlinear input-to-output response mappings and non-standard response distributions in the can-crush problem. The results and discussion in this paper support a proposition that the method will apply similarly well for other sparsely sampled random variable or function data, whether from experiments or models. Finally, the simple Tolerance Interval method is also demonstrated to be very economical.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

On random fuzzy fractional partial integro-differential equations under Caputo generalized Hukuhara differentiability

This paper is devoted to the study of the solvability of random fuzzy fractional partial integro-differential equations under Caputo generalized Hukuhara differentiability. The notions of random fuzzy variables and fuzzy stochastic processes are developed for multivariable functions. The existence and uniqueness of two types of integral solutions generated from Darboux problem for nonlinear wave equations are proved using the successive approximations method and Gronwall’s inequality for stochastic processes. The continuous dependence on the data, the boundedness, and the stability with probability one of integral solutions are established to confirm the well posedness of our model. Some computational examples are presented to illustrate the theoretical results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

On a stochastic approach to a code performance estimation

The main goal of an efficient profiling of software is to minimize the runtime overhead under certain constraints and requirements. The traces built by a profiler during the work, affect the performance of the system itself. One of important aspect of an overhead arises from the randomness of variability in the context in which the application is embedded, e.g., due to possible cache misses, etc. Such uncertainty needs to be taken into account in the design phase. In order to overcome these difficulties we propose to investigate this issue through the analysis of the probability distribution of the difference between profiler’s times for the same code. The approximating model is based on the finite normal mixtures within the framework of the method of moving separation of mixtures. We demonstrate some results for the MATLAB profiler using plotting of 3D surfaces by the function surf. The idea can be used for an estimating of a program efficiency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

A non-modal analytical method to predict turbulent properties applied to the Hasegawa-Wakatani model

Linear eigenmode analysis often fails to describe turbulence in model systems that have non-normal linear operators and thus nonorthogonal eigenmodes, which can cause fluctuations to transiently grow faster than expected from eigenmode analysis. When combined with energetically conservative nonlinear mode mixing, transient growth can lead to sustained turbulence even in the absence of eigenmode instability. Since linear operators ultimately provide the turbulent fluctuations with energy, it is useful to define a growth rate that takes into account non-modal effects, allowing for prediction of energy injection, transport levels, and possibly even turbulent onset in the subcritical regime. We define such a non-modal growth rate using a relatively simple model of the statistical effect that the nonlinearities have on cross-phases and amplitude ratios of the system state variables. In particular, we model the nonlinearities as delta-function-like, periodic forces that randomize the state variables once every eddy turnover time. Furthermore, we estimate the eddy turnover time to be the inverse of the least stable eigenmode frequency or growth rate, which allows for prediction without nonlinear numerical simulation. We test this procedure on the 2D and 3D Hasegawa-Wakatani model [A. Hasegawa and M. Wakatani, Phys. Rev. Lett. 50, 682 (1983)] and find that the non-modal growth rate is a good predictor of energy injection rates, especially in the strongly non-normal, fully developed turbulence regime.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Remote Linkages to Anomalous Winter Atmospheric Ridging Over the Northeastern Pacific

Abstract Severe drought in California between 2013 and 2016 has been linked to the multiyear persistence of anomalously high atmospheric pressure over the northeastern Pacific Ocean, which deflected the Pacific storm track northward and suppressed regional precipitation during California's winter “rainy season.” Multiple hypotheses have emerged regarding why this high pressure ridge near the west coast of North America was so resilient—including unusual sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean, reductions in Arctic sea ice, random atmospheric variability, or some combination thereof. Here we explore relationships between previously documented atmospheric conditions over the North Pacific and several potential remote oceanic and cryospheric influences using both observational data and a large ensemble of climate model simulations. Our results suggest that persistent wintertime atmospheric ridging similar to that implicated in California's 2013–2016 drought can at least partially be linked to unusual Pacific sea surface temperatures and that Pacific Ocean conditions may offer some degree of cool‐season foresight in this region despite the presence of substantial internal variability.

Swain, Daniel L.↗
DOE OSTI2015

On the efficacy of stochastic collocation, stochastic Galerkin, and stochastic reduced order models for solving stochastic problems

The stochastic collocation (SC) and stochastic Galerkin (SG) methods are two well-established and successful approaches for solving general stochastic problems. A recently developed method based on stochastic reduced order models (SROMs) can also be used. Herein we provide a comparison of the three methods for some numerical examples; our evaluation only holds for the examples considered in the paper. The purpose of the comparisons is not to criticize the SC or SG methods, which have proven very useful for a broad range of applications, nor is it to provide overall ratings of these methods as compared to the SROM method. Furthermore, our objectives are to present the SROM method as an alternative approach to solving stochastic problems and provide information on the computational effort required by the implementation of each method, while simultaneously assessing their performance for a collection of specific problems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

A mapped dataset of surface ocean acidification indicators in large marine ecosystems of the United States

Mapped monthly data products of surface ocean acidification indicators from 1998 to 2022 on a 0.25° by 0.25° spatial grid have been developed for eleven U.S. large marine ecosystems (LMEs). The data products were constructed using observations from the Surface Ocean CO 2 Atlas, co-located surface ocean properties, and two types of machine learning algorithms: Gaussian mixture models to organize LMEs into clusters of similar environmental variability and random forest regressions (RFRs) that were trained and applied within each cluster to spatiotemporally interpolate the observational data. The data products, called RFR-LMEs, have been averaged into regional timeseries to summarize the status of ocean acidification in U.S. coastal waters, showing a domain-wide carbon dioxide partial pressure increase of 1.4 ± 0.4 μatm yr -1 and pH decrease of 0.0014 ± 0.0004 yr -1 . RFR-LMEs have been evaluated via comparisons to discrete shipboard data, fixed timeseries, and other mapped surface ocean carbon chemistry data products. Regionally averaged timeseries of RFR-LME indicators are provided online through the NOAA National Marine Ecosystem Status web portal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Moments of the Boltzmann collision operator for Coulomb interactions

Exact moments of the Boltzmann collision operator are calculated in the irreducible Hermitian moment expansion written in terms of the random-velocity variable of each species. The formulas are presented in closed, algebraic form and can be straightforwardly implemented in computer algebra systems. They are valid for two arbitrary masses, temperatures, and flow velocities, and hence include all other existing results derived for distribution functions expanded with respect to reference states of one temperature and flow velocity. In comparison, the Landau collisional moments are good approximations for large Coulomb logarithm and small relative flow velocity, but they fail to predict the correct behavior of most collisional moments for large relative flow even for weakly coupled plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

A geometric approach for computing tolerance bounds for elastic functional data

We design an approach for constructing tolerance bounds for functional data with random warping variability. In particular, we define a generative, probabilistic model for the amplitude and phase components of such observations, which parsimoniously characterizes variability in the baseline data. Based on the proposed model, we define two different types of tolerance bounds that are able to measure both types of variability, and as a result, identify when the data has gone beyond the bounds of amplitude and/or phase. The first functional tolerance bounds are computed via a bootstrap procedure on the geometric space of amplitude and phase functions. The second functional tolerance bounds utilize functional Principal Component Analysis to construct a tolerance factor. Our report is motivated by two main applications: process control and disease monitoring. The problem of statistical analysis and modeling of functional data in process control is important in determining when a production has moved beyond a baseline. Moreover, in biomedical applications, doctors use long, approximately periodic signals (such as the electrocardiogram) to diagnose and monitor diseases. In this context, it is desirable to identify abnormalities in these signals. We additionally consider a simulated example to assess our approach and compare it to two existing methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven Minimum Entropy Control for Stochastic Nonlinear Systems using the Cumulant-Generating Function

Here, we present a novel minimum entropy control algorithm for a class of stochastic nonlinear systems subjected to non-Gaussian noises. The entropy control can be considered as an optimization problem for the system randomness attenuation, but the mean value has to be considered separately. To overcome this disadvantage, a new representation of the system stochastic properties was given using the cumulant-generating function based on the moment-generating function, in which the mean value and the entropy was reflected by the shape of the cumulant-generating function. Based on the samples of the system output and control input, a time-variant linear model was identified, and the minimum entropy optimization was transformed to system stabilization. Then, an optimal control strategy was developed to achieve the randomness attenuation, and the boundedness of the controlled system output was analyzed. The effectiveness of the presented control algorithm was demonstrated by a numerical example. In this paper, a data-driven minimum entropy design is presented without pre-knowledge of the system model; entropy optimization is achieved by the system stabilization approach in which the stochastic distribution control and minimum entropy are unified using the same identified structure; and a potential framework is obtained since all the existing system stabilization methods can be adopted to achieve the minimum entropy objective.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Fast generation of sparse random kernel graphs

The development of kernel-based inhomogeneous random graphs has provided models that are flexible enough to capture many observed characteristics of real networks, and that are also mathematically tractable. We specify a class of inhomogeneous random graph models, called random kernel graphs, that produces sparse graphs with tunable graph properties, and we develop an efficient generation algorithm to sample random instances from this model. As real-world networks are usually large, it is essential that the run-time of generation algorithms scales better than quadratically in the number of vertices n. We show that for many practical kernels our algorithm runs in time at most ο(n(logn)²). As an example, we show how to generate samples of power-law degree distribution graphs with tunable assortativity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

A cross-sectional study of the temporal evolution of electricity consumption of six commercial buildings

Current approaches to building efficiency diagnoses include conventional energy audit techniques that can be expensive and time consuming. In contrast, virtual energy audits of readily available 15-minute-interval building electricity consumption are being explored to provide quick, inexpensive, and useful insights into building operation characteristics. A cross sectional analysis of six buildings in two different climate zones provides methods for data cleaning, population-based building comparisons, and relationships (correlations) of weather and electricity consumption. Data cleaning methods have been developed to categorize and appropriately filter or correct anomalous data including outliers, missing data, and erroneous values (resulting in < 0.5% anomalies). The utility of a cross-sectional analysis of a sample set of building's electricity consumption is found through comparisons of baseload, daily consumption variance, and energy use intensity. Correlations of weather and electricity consumption 15-minute interval datasets show important relationships for the heating and cooling seasons using computed correlations of a Time-Specific-Averaged- Ordered Variable (exterior temperature) and corresponding averaged variables (electricity consumption)(TSAOV method). The TSAOV method is unique as it introduces time of day as a third variable while also minimizing randomness in both correlated variables through averaging. This study found that many of the pair-wise linear correlation analyses lacked strong relationships, prompting the development of the new TSAOV method to uncover the causal relationship between electricity and weather. We conclude that a combination of varied HVAC system operations, building thermal mass, plug load use, and building set point temperatures are likely responsible for the poor correlations in the prior studies, while the correlation of time-specific-averaged-ordered temperature and corresponding averaged variables method developed herein adequately accounts for these issues and enables discovery of strong linear pair-wise correlation R values. TSAOV correlations lay the foundation for a new approach to building studies, that mitigates plug load interferences and identifies more accurate insights into weather-energy relationship for all building types. Over all six buildings analyzed the TSAOV method reported very significant average correlations per building of 0.94 to 0.82 in magnitude. Our rigorous statistics-based methods applied to 15- minute-interval electricity data further enables virtual energy audits of buildings to quickly and inexpensively inform energy savings measures.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Conditioned Simulation of Ground-Motion Time Series at Uninstrumented Sites Using Gaussian Process Regression

Ground-motion time series are essential input data in seismic analysis and performance assessment of the built environment. Because instruments to record free-field ground motions are generally sparse, methods are needed to estimate motions at locations with no available ground-motion recording instrumentation. In this study, given a set of observed motions, ground-motion time series at target sites are constructed using a Gaussian process regression (GPR) approach, which treats the real and imaginary parts of the Fourier spectrum as random Gaussian variables. Model training, verification, and applicability studies are carried out using the physics-based simulated ground motions of the 1906 Mw 7.9 San Francisco earthquake and Mw 7.0 Hayward fault scenario earthquake in northern California. Additionally, the method’s performance is further evaluated using the 2019 Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake ground motions recorded by the Community Seismic Network stations located in southern California. These evaluations indicate that the trained GPR model is able to adequately estimate the ground-motion time series for frequency ranges that are pertinent for most earthquake engineering applications. The trained GPR model exhibits proper performance in predicting the long-period content of the ground motions as well as directivity pulses.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Confidence in Numerical Simulations

This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to “forecast,” that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists “think.” This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. “Confidence” derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Final Report on CFD and Thermal-Mechanical Stress Analysis of PWR Surge Line under Transient Condition Thermal Stratification and an Evolutionary Cyclic Plasticity Based Transformative Fatigue Evaluation Approach without Using S~N Curve: Rev. 1

This report presents an evolutionary cyclic plasticity based transformative approach for fatigue evaluation of safety critical components. This approach is generic which can be used not only for the present generation light water reactor components (which is our focus) but also for advanced reactor components. The approach is based on the fundamental concept of time-evolution of progressive fatigue damage rather than the end-of-life data based conventional S~N curve approaches. Series of fatigue tests on 316 stainless steel uniaxial specimens were conducted under strain-controlled and stress-controlled cyclic loading in two different environment such as in-air at 300 °C and PWR coolant water condition at 300 °C. Material models are developed to capture the uniaxial test data and are subsequently programmed into commercially available ABAQUS code to transform the uniaxial material behavior to multiaxial loading domain. The developed evolutionary cyclic-plasticity approach is verified by both analytical and 3D-FE modeling of uniaxial fatigue test specimens. Results show that the developed material models can capture the time-dependence of material hardening and softening with great accuracy. In addition, results show that the material models not only can capture the material behavior under constant amplitude loading but also can capture the load-sequence effect under variable and random amplitude loading. The ANL developed approach is one of its kind, which shows first in the fatigue research community that fatigue evaluation of a component (in our case verified for laboratory scale fatigue test specimens with great accuracy) can be performed for its entire fatigue life, including the hardening and softening behavior, without using a conventional S~N curve based approach. Additionally results are presented related to fatigue evaluation of real reactor components such as of a pressurized water reactor (PWR) surge line (SL), under upset transient conditions. SLs of PWR experience complex thermal stratification due to the mixing of differential temperature flow from hot leg and pressurizer. A detailed parametric study of thermal stratification in SL is performed through both standalone computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis and fluid-structure-interaction based coupled CFD and heat transfer analysis. Results show that the mass flow rate in SL substantially affects the extent of its thermal stratification. The resulting thermal boundaries conditioned are used as inputs for thermal-mechanical stress analysis and component level fatigue evaluation. Fatigue evaluation of SL pipe under example loading conditions was performed using the above-mentioned evolutionary-plasticity based approach and ASME code (for in-air life) and NUREG-6909 (for PWR environment life) based approaches. Results show that the evolutionary plasticity based approach estimate substantially different life compared to the conventional ASME based approach. To show the entirety of the proposed evolutionary fatigue-modeling framework, this report includes the results presented in semi-annual March report (ANL/LWRS-17/01). Sections 2-5 of March report are directly included as Sections 2-5 in this report, without any significant changes. However, Sections 6-9 of this report present the work performed during March-September of 2017. Whereas, Sections 1 and 10 present the organization of this report and the summary and future work, respectively. This report (ANL/LWRS-17/03 Rev. 1) is a slightly revised version of the earlier published report (ANL/LWRS-17/03). In this revised version, some of the results and associated discussion have been corrected/updated.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Implementation of ANL’s Mechanics Based Evolutionary Fatigue Modeling Through ABAQUS-WARP3D Based High-Performance Computing Framework

This report presents an update on the environmental fatigue research that is being conducted at Argonne National Laboratory in support of the Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. Argonne is developing a fully mechanistic fatigue evaluation approach without using empirical fatigue (S~N) curves. This approach is based on the fundamental concept of the time evolution of progressive fatigue damage rather than on the conventional S~N curve approaches using end-of-life data. In FY 2017, we performed extensive validation of this approach with respect to fatigue test data for 316 stainless steel [1]. This validation was performed for different loading cases, including constant, variable, and random amplitude. In the present FY 2018 semi-annual report, we present the further advances of Argonne’s environmental fatigue research work in the context for more practical applications. In this report, we discuss a methodology for fully mechanistic (i.e., not using S~N curves) fatigue life evaluation of reactor components subjected to realistic loading cycles, namely, design-basis loading cycles. The loading cycles include plant heat-up, full-power, and cool-down operations. As a test case, we considered a typical pressurized water reactor surge line, which is made of 316 SS. To perform the fatigue simulation for thousands of fatigue cycles in a computationally cost effective way, we modified our previous desktop-based finite element (FE) modeling approach to work in a high-performance computing (HPC) framework. For the HPC implementation, we developed a hybrid framework based on commercial FE software (ABAQUS), open-source FE software (WARP3D), and Argonne-developed evolutionary cyclic-plasticity modeling methods. We validated this HPC-based cycle-by-cycle damage model for the entire fatigue life of a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) surge line (SL) pipe with respect to assumed loading cycles. The simulated fatigue life was found to be 5855 cycles, which is 85% accurate as compared to the corresponding small-specimen-based experimental fatigue life (6914 cycles). Also, the simulated stress history captures the cyclic hardening and softening behavior of the material for entire fatigue cycles. The FE simulation of the PWR SL pipe was conducted in a reasonable time of 12.5 days. These results show the promise that a fully mechanistic (not using S~N curves) fatigue life evaluation of a safety-critical nuclear reactor component (or even other safety critical components like those in aircraft, aero-engines, etc.) is possible. We anticipate that this type of methodology will drastically reduce the uncertainly associated with conventional fatigue life estimates based on empirical S~N curves. We also proposed an FE model that is based on a hybrid full-component and single-element approach and that can readily be used by industry if HPC resources are not available. In this approach, a single-cycle FE simulation has to be performed first for the required loading cycle. Then, the resulting strain/stress profile at the hotspot (highest strain/stress location) is used as input strain/stress loading to the single-element FE model. The single-element FE model is run under multiple fatigue cycles as long as the failure criteria are achieved. The cycle number at failure gives the fatigue life of the component in question. This cost-effective framework does not require expensive HPC hardware and can be performed in a reasonable time by using a desktop computer. We demonstrated this approach with respect to PWR SL fatigue evaluation under two realistic design-basis loading cycles (simple and detailed). The associated results were validated with respect to test data obtained through fatigue testing of uniaxial specimens under the in-air condition at 300 °C. The approach is in the development stage and requires further improvement and validation.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Poisson-response Tensor-on-Tensor Regression and Applications

We introduce Poisson-response tensor-on-tensor regression (PToTR), a novel regression framework designed to handle tensor responses composed element-wise of random Poisson-distributed counts. Tensors, or multi-dimensional arrays, composed of counts are common data in fields such as inter national relations, social networks, epidemiology, and medical imaging, where events occur across multiple dimensions like time, location, and dyads. PToTR accommodates such tensor responses alongside tensor covariates, providing a versatile tool for multi dimensional data analysis. We propose algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation under a canonical polyadic (CP) structure on the regression coefficient tensor that satisfy the positivity of Poisson parameters and then provide an initial theoretical error analysis for PToTR estimators. We also demonstrate the utility of PToTR through three concrete applications: longitudinal data analysis of the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System database, positron emission tomography (PET) image reconstruction, and change-point detection of communication patterns in longitudinal dyadic data. These applications highlight the versatility of PToTR in addressing complex, structured count data across various domains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗