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At least 523 records · Page 29

Hybrid Reduced Order Model for N2-N2 Interactions for Application to Dissociation and Energy Transfer Processes

Recent work in the aerothermodynamics community has focused on the development of reduced-order models for thermo-chemical non-equilibrium which avoid the restrictive assumptions of multi-temperature models and the prohibitive cost associated with State-to-State (StS) models. In the present work, this is accomplished by lumping energy states together and assuming groups of states are roughly in equilibrium. As a result, the non-equilibrium behavior of a gas can be captured at a reduced computational cost from a full StS simulation. In this work, we present a hybrid grouping model for studying energy transfer and dissociation in a mixture of nitrogen molecules due to N2-N2 reactions. This is accomplished by making use of a grouping strategy informed by data from the N2-N StS kinetic data. However, due to the massive computational cost associated with constructing StS data for the N2-N2 system, the kinetic data for the hybrid grouping model are calculated using the quasi-classical trajectory (QCT) method by sampling states for trajectory within the groups. This general framework is called the Maximum-Entropy Quasi-Classical Trajectory (ME-QCT) method. The primary challenge associated with this method is that rates for reverse grouped reactions cannot be obtained through detailed balance at a group level, due to the variation of group internal temperatures. To construct the full model for N2-N2 grouped kinetics using the ME-QCT method, detailed balance is invoked at the microscopic level, allowing for the calculation of the full kinetic data from QCT. Results will be presented using the full ME-QCT model for the N2-N2 system in an isothermal and isochoric reactor simulation. In addition, simple CFD test cases for a one-dimensional standing shock and for a quasi-one-dimensional nozzle will be used for demonstration of the ME-QCT method. This method allows for the calculation of non-equilibrium behavior for the N2-N2 system without the prohibitive cost of a full StS simulation. Moreover, it enables the construction of a unified model for the dissociating and recombining non-equilibrium flows.

nonequilibrium modeling↗

Methods to Reduce Communication Workload for UAM Operations

Implementation of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations, or air passenger transportation systems within densely populated metropolitan areas, seeks to mitigate increasing traffic congestion. However, the development and integration of UAM operations into the national airspace system comes with its own unique challenges, such as vehicle requirements, flight planning and scheduling, and coordination between UAM flights and air traffic controllers. In particular, verbal coordination will play an integral part in the determined success of UAM operations and its ability to meet projected high consumer demands. In order to meet demands and higher traffic volumes on UAM routes, verbal communication between the UAM pilot and controller must be streamlined to reduce the controller's workload while helping to maintain safety within a given airspace. One method of reducing verbal workload are Letters Of Agreement (LOAs) that outline responsibilities and procedures for operations in an airspace. These LOAs will specify the operations, procedures, and routes for UAM flights. The proposed study will examine the usability of two route formatting styles for LOAs; (i) Verbal route descriptions and (ii) Tower En Route Control (TECs) routes. Verbal route descriptions will include the route name and associated visual cues on the route. The TEC route versions will include relevant waypoints and charts outlining the route with waypoints marked. The study will be part of a UAM X1 human in the loop (HITL) simulation. Controller participants will handle traditional air traffic including moderate levels of UAM traffic on current and modified helicopter routes within the Dallas Fort-Worth area. Scenarios will be counterbalanced and repeated to test both route formatting versions. After each trial, participants will rate the usability of the LOA used in the previous trial via a subjective questionnaire. We expect that controllers will prefer the LOA with TEC routes due to simplicity and visual elements available.

aerospace human factors↗

Generation of Performance Model for the Aeolian Wind Tunnel (AWT) Rotor at Reduced Pressure

The NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) designed the Mars Helicopter (MH) in collaboration with AeroVironment Inc., NASA Ames Research Center, and NASA Langley Research Center to explore the possibility of a vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) for flight on Mars. A 40-inch-diameter Aeolian Wind Tunnel (AWT) rotor, roughly approximating the proposed MH design by JPL, was tested in forward flight at Mars atmospheric pressure at the NASA Ames Planetary Aeolian Laboratory (PAL) in support of MH research efforts. This report describes the generation of the rotor model used to correlate with that experimental effort as reported by Ament and Koning. The 40-inch-diameter rotor was 3D-scanned and transformed into an airfoil deck. The scanned rotor airfoil sections are analyzed using C81 Generator (C81Gen) to generate the sectional aerodynamic coefficients for comprehensive analyses. A mid-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation using Rotorcraft CFD (RotCFD) is pursued to efficiently estimate rotor hover and forward flight performance. Simulations at two pressures, 7 mbar (approximate Martian atmospheric pressure) and 1018 mbar (1 atmosphere), are performed to gain an understanding of the performance differences and Reynolds number effects observed. Experimental 1-atmosphere thrust for single- and dual-rotor isolated hover cases correlate well with the modeled rotor. Performance results at reduced pressure (7 mbar) show a drastic decrease in lift for equivalent RPMs tested at 1 atmosphere. Although this is primarily due to pressure reduction, Reynolds number effects also contribute to this decrease, as airfoil lift and drag coefficients are affected when compared with 1-atmosphere results. Further, simulated rotor power coefficient shows drastic increases at reduced pressures, attributed to laminar boundary layer separation, as described in Koning et al. for the MH rotor analysis. PAL experimental Martian Surface Wind Tunnel (MARSWIT) results are presented in the paper by Ament and Koning. The very low Reynolds number range is currently not well understood and presents various challenges for both experimentation and simulation.

Koning, Witold J. F.↗

Reducing Departure Delays for Adjacent Center Airports using Time-Based Flow Management Scheduler: Checkbox On or Off?

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has enhanced the Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) scheduling tool with a "Checkbox ON" vs. "OFF" function which allows Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs) to make room in a crowded arrival stream for a departure. When scheduling a departure, having the checkbox ON can delay the Scheduled Times of Arrivals (STAs) of the airborne flights upstream of the TBFM freeze horizons and can compress these flights to their minimum required spacing, thereby creating a slot for a departure. Hence, having the checkbox ON can reduce the frequent ground delays of aircraft departing near high volume airports but can increase delays for airborne arrivals. A Human-in-the-Loop (HITL) simulation compared arrival and departure delays to Newark Airport (EWR) with the checkbox ON vs. OFF as the default position. Three other conditions in this HITL involved various National Airspace System (NAS)-wide approaches for timely delivery of aircraft to the TBFM region. These conditions were: Baseline, using current Mile-in-Trail (MIT) spacing restrictions; Integrated Demand Management (IDM), where all aircraft were given departure times (Expect Departure Clearance Times, or EDCTs), ultimately based on the EWR Airport Arrival Rate; and IDM plus Required Time of Arrival (RTA), a flight deck tool which allowed some aircraft to meet a controlled time of arrival to the TBFM area more precisely. Results showed that the checkbox tool was powerful: with the checkbox ON, departure delays decreased and airborne delays increased, as predicted. However, assuming that the cost ratio of a minute of airborne delay to a minute of departure delay is in the range of 1.2 to 3, as commonly indicated by the literature, checkbox ON and checkbox OFF conditions showed approximately equal total delay costs, i.e., the cost of delays in the air balanced the cost of the delay on the ground. The three scheduling conditions also had approximately equal total delay costs, although a simulation artifact may have reduced the delays in the Baseline condition. In the debrief following the simulation, the TMCs concluded that the checkbox should be used flexibly depending on the current delay situation, and suggested modifications to the checkbox tool which would help them use it in this way, along with enhanced training. The relatively similar total cost of both checkbox default options in this simulation indicates that this might be a fruitful approach, and replace the necessity to have the checkbox rigidly set to either ON or OFF.

departure delay↗

Contributions of Mixed-Phase Clouds to Reduced Arctic Amplification

Earth’s Arctic is particularly sensitive to global warming. The climate record shows that Arctic changes in surface temperatures far exceed that of the global mean, a phenomenon referred to as Arctic amplification. Here, we show that warming of the Arctic atmosphere causes mixed-phase clouds in the region to contain less ice and more supercooled liquid, which in turn tends to increase their amount and thick- ness, thereby inducing a positive feedback mainly by increasing downward longwave (LW) radiation at the surface. The increased downward LW radiation decreases the positive lapse rate feedback in the Arctic, thus resulting in reduced Arctic amplification. The strength of this feedback depends on the initial mean-state supercooled liquid fraction (SLF) and the ice crystal effective radii. We also show that reduced precipitation rates can result from large mean-state ice effective radii being replaced by relatively more smaller liquid droplets in the cloud phase feedback, despite having high mean-state SLFs, demonstrating the importance of the representation of cloud microphysics in the Arctic.

Tan, Ivy↗

Reduced Gravity Contributes to Neutrophil to Lymphocyte Ratio Shifting and Promotion of the Oxidative Stress Response

Spaceflight can cause immune system dysfunction, such as elevated white blood cells (WBC) and polymorphonuclear neutrophils (PMN), along with unchanged or reduced lymphocyte counts. A high PMN to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) can acts as a poor prognosis in cancer and a biomarker for subclinical inflammation however, the NLR has not been identified as a predictor of astronaut health during spaceflight. CBC data collected on board the International Space Station (ISS) was repurposed to determine the granulocyte to lymphocyte ratio (GLR) in humans and the NLR in rodents. The results displayed a progressive increase in GLR and NLR during spaceflight and at landing. The mechanism for increased NLR was assessed in vitro using the microgravity-analog, rotating wall vessel (RWV), with human WBCs. The results indicated that simulated microgravity led to increased GLR and NLR profiles, and production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and myeloperoxidase (MPO). Interestingly, simulated microgravity increased the number of matured PMNs that showed impaired phagocytic function, while treatment with tert-Butyl hydroperoxide (TBHP), also reduced PMN phagocytosis. In addition, 30-days of simulated microgravity (hindlimb unloading) in mice, indicated an increased NLR and MPO gene expression, which were mitigated in mitochondrial catalase overexpressing transgenic mice, suggesting ROS scavenging is essential for maintaining homeostatic immunity. Collectively, we propose that the health status of astronauts during future short- and long-term space missions can be monitored by their NLR profile, in addition to utilizing this measurement as a tool for oxidative stress response countermeasure development to restore homeostatic immunity.

Paul, Amber M.↗

Aeroelastic Indicial Response Reduced-Order Modeling for Flexible Flight Vehicles

A reduced-order modeling method capable of providing computationally efficient predictions of the nonlinear, unsteady aerodynamics encountered by flexible flight vehicles under- going forced oscillations is presented. Models are developed using indicial response theory, which characterizes a vehicle’s dynamics through identification of time-accurate aerodynamic responses due to step changes in the vehicle-state parameters, e.g., angle-of-attack, pitch rate. A coupled computational fluid dynamics aeroelastic analysis is proposed for identifying step (indicial) responses of flexible vehicles. In this approach, aeroelastic indicial responses are simulated via prescribed rigid body motions, while fluid-structure interactions are captured at the subiterative level through coupling to a linear modal structural solver. A nonlinear extension of indicial response theory is applied through time-dependent linear interpolation of a database of locally linear aeroelastic step responses. Reduced-order models are then created using the mathematical principle of convolution applied to the interpolated aeroelastic indicial responses to predict the time-dependent aerodynamic response of a flexible vehicle to any arbitrary prescribed flight maneuver. The NASA FUN3D computational fluid dynamics solver is utilized for simulating full-order trajectories and indicial response functions. Aerodynamic predictions were generated for the X-56A aircraft undergoing a series of harmonic forced oscillations. The s are shown to provide a practical option for evaluating the unsteady aerodynamics of flexible vehicles using high-fidelity simulations.

Hiller, Brett↗

Quantifying Changes in Urban Albedo with NASA Earth Observations to Reduce the Urban Heat Island Effect in Cambridge, Massachusetts

Elevated temperatures resulting from the urban heat island (UHI) effect can have widespread impacts on human health, infrastructure, and ecosystems. These impacts can be exacerbated by changes in climate and extreme variation in regional temperature. By 2030, experts expect Cambridge, Massachusetts will experience warmer than average temperatures, more heat waves, and triple the number of abnormally warm days above 90°F per year. The NASA DEVELOP Program partnered with the City of Cambridge’s Community Development Department and the American Geophysical Union’s Thriving Earth Exchange to inform ongoing efforts aimed at reducing the impacts of urban heat in the city of Cambridge. The team used scenes obtained from High Resolution Orthoimagery and the National Agriculture Imagery Program in conjunction with building footprint data, to calculate rooftop albedo between 2008 and 2018. Using these results, maps displaying building-specific variation in albedo across Cambridge were created. A nighttime land surface temperature (LST) record for June, July, and August between 2003 and 2019 was constructed using the Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) nighttime LST product. Lastly, temperature anomalies were calculated for Cambridge using seasonally averaged nighttime LST values obtained from Aqua MODIS to display ‘hot spots’ for summers between 2004 and 2019. The results of this project were then incorporated into an interactive ArcGIS Dashboard. This work will allow end users to explore spatial and temporal trends in albedo, nighttime LST, and temperature anomalies to assess whether the City of Cambridge is successfully reducing the effects of UHIs.

NASA DEVELOP↗

Recent Amplified Global Gross Primary Productivity Due to Temperature Increase is Offset by Reduced Productivity Due to Water Constraints

Satellite remote sensing observationsshow an increased greenness trend over land in recent decades. Whilegreennessobservationscanindicateincreased productivity, estimation of total annual productivity is highly dependent on vegetation response to climate and environmental conditions. Models have been struggling to determinehow much carbon is taken up by plants as a result of increased atmospheric CO2fertilization. Current remote sensing light use efficiency (LUE) models contain considerable uncertainty due to the lack of spatial and temporal variability in maximum LUE parameter and climate sensitivity defined for global plantfunctional types (PFTs). We usedthe optimum LUE (LUEopt) previously derived fromtheglobal FLUXNET network to improve estimation of global gross primary productivity (GPP)for the period 1982–2016. Our results indicateincreasing GPP in northern latitudesowing to reduced cold temperature constraintson plant growth, thereby suggesting increasing negative carbon-climate feedbackin high latitudes. In the tropics, by contrast, our results indicate an emerging positive climate feedback,mainly due to increasing atmospheric vapor pressure deficit(VPD).Further pervasive VPD increase is likely to continue to reduce global GPPand amplify carbon emissions.

Climate change↗

A METHOD TO REDUCE BIOBURDEN IN ASTROMATERIALS CURATION FACILITIES WITHOUT INTRODUCING UNWANTED CONTAMINATION

Introduction: NASA curates its Astromaterials collections in cleanrooms that are carefully monitored for particulate, inorganic and trace metal contamination. Current sample collections are not particularly susceptible to organic contamination or biological alteration. However, new collections like those from the OSIRIS-REx and Hayabusa2 missions will have organic contamination requirements and are susceptible to biodegradation. It will be necessary sterilize or at least disinfect curation labs, as well as tools and equipment in a manner that does not introduce additional contamination and does not affect the samples 1. Current curation cleaning procedures utilize isopropyl alcohol which offers some bioburden reduction, but is not effective against spore-forming bacteria or fungal spores 2. We present a modified disinfection method that uses ultrapure hydrogen peroxide to reduce bioburden inside curation labs and glove boxes without introducing contamination or damaging curation equipment. We tested this method in the meteorite processing lab as well as on a glovebox being cleaned for use in processing ANGSA (Apollo Next Generation Sample Analysis) samples and present the results of those tests. We discuss the limitations of this method and describe potential situations in which it will not be applicable. The CDC guidelines for disinfection andsterilization in healthcare facilities discusses over 15different methods for reducing bioburden in hospitalsettings 3. The most common method, steamsterilization, is well suited to sterilizing curationprocessing tools but cannot easily be used to sterilizecleanroom surfaces or large equipment likegloveboxes. Chemical sterilization with bleach(NaOCl) is also a common strategy in healthcare andpharmaceutical settings that presents materialcompatibility issues as well as serious inorganiccontamination concerns for curation facilities.Introducing a new source of Na and Cl into curationlabs is not acceptable. Other chemical methods likeethylene oxide, formaldehyde, iodophors andquaternary ammonium compounds could introduceorganic and inorganic contamination. We chose tofocus on hydrogen peroxide because it is generallycompatible with commonly used curation materialslike stainless steel, aluminum and Teflon and becauseit decomposes to oxygen and water. The CDCguidelines for hydrogen peroxide specify using a 7.5wt% solution at 25 ̊C with a contact time of 30 minutesfor high level disinfection and 6 hours for sterilization.High level disinfection is defined as a technique thatwill kill all microorganisms except large numbers ofbacterial spores 3. Methods: We prepared a solution of 7.5 wt%hydrogen peroxide from a stock solution of ultrapure30 wt% peroxide (JT Baker) and curation gradeultrapure water. This ultrapure water is already used incuration cleaning procedures and thus is not consideredand additional source of contamination. We conducteda materials compatibility test by exposing unanodizedand anodized 6061 T6 Al alloy to the peroxide solutionfor up to six hours and periodically inspecting thesurfaces for visible defects. We used this peroxide todisinfect the floor of the meteorite processing lab andthe interior of a curation glovebox by exposing thesesurfaces to the peroxide solution for 30 min. Thesurfaces were swabbed with a dry macrofoam swabbefore (Puritan Brand 2518051PFRNDFD) and afterperoxide treatment to collect microbes present on thesurfaces. Microbes were extracted by sonication fromthe swab into 15 ml of PBS (phosphate buffered saline)and inoculated onto the following media: TSA (trypticsoy agar) BA (blood agar), R2A (Reasoners 2 agar),Potato Dextrose Agar, Saboraud Dextrose Agar andSaboraud Dextrose Agar with 0.1 mg/ mlchloramphenicol. Four TSA plates and two BA plateswere inoculated with 0.1 ml of PBS each andincubated at 35 and 37 for 48 hours. Two R2A°C°Cplates (0.1 ml of PBS each) were incubated at 25 .°CThe remaining plates were inoculated with 0.2ml ofPBS and incubated at 30 ̊C for seven days. Afterincubation bacterial and fungal isolates were countedand transferred to new plates for identification usingthe VITEK24 automated system or by sequencing aportion of the barcode gene (16S rRNA for bacteria,small subunit gene for fungi) on an ABI 3500 Sangersequencer. Negative controls consisted of swabs thatwere opened in the sampling environment andanalyzed alongside the experimental samples.Results: A 6 hour exposure to hydrogen peroxideresulted in visible pitting on un-anodized 6061 Al, butnot on anodized surfaces. No visible pitting occurredafter a 30 minute exposure. Therefore, we decided tolimit our experimental tests to 30 min. exposures. 17bacterial CFU (colony forming units) representing 4distinct organisms were isolated from the meteorite processing lab floor prior to hydrogen peroxidetreatment. We were unable culture any organisms afterperoxide treatment. In the glovebox we were able toculture three bacterial CFU representing three distinctspecies, including a spore forming bacterium prior todisinfection with peroxide. After the peroxidetreatment we were unable to culture any organisms.Routine monitoring of the meteorite processing lab andthe glovebox did not indicate any increase in unwantedinorganic contamination after these peroxidetreatments. Discussion: A 30 minute treatment with 7.5 wt%peroxide appears to be an effective method forreducing bioburden on typical cleanroom surfaces. Themethod does not introduce unwanted organic orinorganic contamination and is compatible withcommonly used curation materials like stainless steel,Teflon and anodized aluminum alloys. Special careshould be taken with un-anodized aluminum.Prolonged exposure to hydrogen peroxide can causepitting on this material. We recommend using thismethod to disinfect curation labs and equipment whenbiological alteration is a concern. This method iseffective at room temperature and cannot be used todisinfect labs and equipment where the ambienttemperature is < 0 ̊C. Astromaterials samples shouldbe removed from the area where disinfection is tooccur. Hydrogen peroxide is a powerful oxidizingagent and will react with any organic carbon present inthe sample. References: [1.] Mccubbin, F. M. et al.Sp. Sci Rev(2019) doi:10.1007/s11214-019-0615-9. [2.] Mogul, R.et al.Astrobiology 18, ast.2017.1814 (2018). [3.]Rutala, W. A. & Weber, D. J. Guideline for Disinfection and Sterilization in Healthcare Facilities, 2008. [4.] Pincus, D. H. in Encyclopedia of Rapid Microbiological Methods (2005).

A. B. Regberg↗

A Dual Multilayer Insulation Blanket Concept to Radically Reduce Heat Loss From Thermally Controlled Spacecraft and Instruments

At large distances from the Sun (e.g. Jupiter/Saturn), the solar flux is less than 4% that at Earth. This requires very large solar arrays to meet the power demands of a typical new mission concept. Heat loss through Multi-Layer Insulation (MLI) blankets typically constitutes the vast majority of the total heat loss. Hence, improvements to MLI blankets that reduce heat loss are advantageous to the spacecraft design. The overall effective emittance (ε*) of MLI is usually a range dependent on the number of layers, size of blanket, seams, feedthroughs, layer density and operating temperatures of the heat source and heat sink. A concept has been developed at JPL to reduce the ε* by as much as a factor of two, which produces a corresponding reduction in heat losses. This concept utilizes two MLI blankets physically separated by traditional bumpers or spacers used for micrometeoroid protection. The outer surface of the inner blanket and the inner surface of the outer blanket are low emissivity surfaces to further minimize the total ε* of the overall dual MLI system. Analytical predictions of a dual MLI concept have been made using test data based ε* correlations. A development test has been conducted to validate the dual blanket design’s performance. This paper will describe the dual blanket design concept, schemes for its implementation, and the corresponding test results to validate its performance.

Duran, Mark↗

The Effect of Reduced Pressure on the Characteristics of Spreading Flames

Flame spread over solid fuels is a canonical problem in fire science, due to its direct implications on material flammability and importance in fire development. In a microgravity environment, such as onboard a spacecraft, flames can behave very differently than on Earth. This is concerning for spaceflight life safety, especially in higher-oxygen environments. Due to the difficulties associated with microgravity testing, low-pressure environments have been proposed as an alternative to approximately replicate the burning behavior of solid fuels observed in reduced gravity conditions because of similar diffusion and heat transfer mechanisms. However, the roles played by gravity and pressure on flame length, standoff distance, and flame spread rate vary with the burning configuration. In concurrent flame spread, the buoyant flow enhances the spread rate by bringing the flame closer to the fuel surface and increasing the heating of the solid fuel. In opposed flame spread, the sample is preheated by the flame ahead of the flame leading edge, which is strongly affected by the surrounding flow field. In this work, we consider flames spreading over thin cotton samples in both downward (opposed) and upward (concurrent) configurations to investigate the effect of pressure (30-100 kPa) on flame characteristics, such as spread rate and standoff distance. A small forced flow is induced upward so that the flames are exposed to a mixed (forced and free) flow. By reducing pressure, flames become less bright, their standoff distance increases, and their spread rates decrease similar to what is observed in low-gravity environments. These results could in help understanding the differences between flames spreading at low pressure and low gravity environments for these similar, yet very different, spreading configurations. They could also provide more information about potential Earth-based flammability testing of materials for spacecraft applications.

fire safety↗

The effect of reduced pressure on the characteristics of spreading flames

Flame spread over solid fuels is a canonical problem in fire science, due to its direct implications on material flammability and importance in fire development. In a microgravity environment, such as onboard a spacecraft, flames can behave very differently than on Earth. This is concerning for spaceflight life safety, especially in higher-oxygen environments. Due to the difficulties associated with microgravity testing, low-pressure environments have been proposed as an alternative to approximately replicate the burning behavior of solid fuels observed in reduced gravity conditions because of similar diffusion and heat transfer mechanisms. However, the roles played by gravity and pressure on flame length, standoff distance, and flame spread rate vary with the burning configuration. In concurrent flame spread, the buoyant flow enhances the spread rate by bringing the flame closer to the fuel surface and increasing the heating of the solid fuel. In opposed flame spread, the sample is preheated by the flame ahead of the flame leading edge, which is strongly affected by the surrounding flow field. In this work, we consider flames spreading over thin cotton samples in both downward (opposed) and upward (concurrent) configurations to investigate the effect of pressure (30-100 kPa) on flame characteristics, such as spread rate and standoff distance. A small forced flow is induced upward so that the flames are exposed to a mixed (forced and free) flow. By reducing pressure, flames become less bright, their standoff distance increases, and their spread rates decrease similar to what is observed in low-gravity environments. These results could in help understanding the differences between flames spreading at low pressure and low gravity environments for these similar, yet very different, spreading configurations. They could also provide more information about potential Earth-based flammability testing of materials for spacecraft applications.

fire safety↗

A New Approach to Evaluate and Reduce Uncertainty of Model-Based Biodiversity Projections for Conservation Policy Formulation

Biodiversity projections with uncertainty estimates under different climate, land-use, and policy scenarios are essential to setting and achieving international targets to mitigate biodiversity loss. Evaluating and improving biodiversity predictions to better inform policy decisions remains a central conservation goal and challenge. A comprehensive strategy to evaluate and reduce uncertainty of model outputs against observed measurements and multiple models would help to produce more robust biodiversity predictions. We propose an approach that integrates biodiversity models and emerging remote sensing and in-situ data streams to evaluate and reduce uncertainty with the goal of improving policy-relevant biodiversity predictions. In this article, we describe a multivariate approach to directly and indirectly evaluate and constrain model uncertainty, demonstrate a proof of concept of this approach, embed the concept within the broader context of model evaluation and scenario analysis for conservation policy, and highlight lessons from other modeling communities.

Bonnie J E Myers↗

Global benefits of non-continuous flooding to reduce greenhouse gases and irrigation water use without rice yield penalty

Non-continuous flooding is an effective practice for reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) and irrigation water use (IRR) in rice fields. However, advancing global implementation is hampered by the lack of comprehensive understanding of GHGs and IRR reduction benefits without compromising rice yield. Here, we present the largest observational data set for such effects as of yet. By using Random Forest regression models based on 636 field trials at 105 globally georeferenced sites, we identified the key drivers of effects of non-continuous flooding practices and mapped maximum GHGs or IRR reduction benefits under optimal non-continuous flooding strategies. The results show that variation in effects of non-continuous flooding practices are primarily explained by the UnFlooded days Ratio (UFR, that is the ratio of the number of days without standing water in the field to total days of the growing period). Non-continuous flooding practices could be feasible to be adopted in 76% of global rice harvested areas. This would reduce the global warming potential (GWP) of CH4 and N2O combined from rice production by 47% or the total GWP by 7% and alleviate irrigation water use by 25%, while maintaining yield levels. The identified UFR targets far exceed currently observed levels particularly in South and Southeast Asia, suggesting large opportunities for climate mitigation and water use conservation, associated with the rigorous implementation of non-continuous flooding practices in global rice cultivation.

climate change mitigation↗

Use of Machine Learning to Reduce Uncertainties in Particle Number Concentration and Aerosol Indirect Radiative Forcing Predicted by Climate Models

The radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols associated with aerosol–cloud interactions (RF(sub aci)) remains the largest source of uncertainty in climate prediction. The calculation of particle number concentration (PNC), one of the critical parameters affecting RF(sub aci), is generally simplified in climate models. Here we employ outputs from long-term (30-years) simulations of a global size-resolved (sectional) aerosol microphysics model and a machine-learning tool to develop a Random Forest Regression Model (RFRM) for PNC. We have implemented the PNC RFRM in GISS-ModelE2.1 with a mass-based One-Moment Aerosol module, which is one of CMIP6 models. Compared to the default setting, the GISS-ModelE2.1 simulation based on RFRM reduces the changes of cloud droplet number concentration associated with anthropogenic emissions, and decreases the RF(sub aci) from −1.46 W⋅m(exp −2) to −1.11 W⋅m(exp −2). This work highlights a promising approach based on machine learning to reduce uncertainties of climate models in predicting PNC and RF(sub aci) without compromising their computing efficiency.

Radiative forcing↗

Lander Lighting Solution to Reduce Pilot & Autonomous Approach Errors

The south pole lighting environment will have harsh low inclination sunlight, making overhead judgement of surface features difficult. Autonomous solutions are great, however, the need for visual monitoring and independent go/no-go decisions remain. Our project proposes that lunar landing systems will be better served by including a powerful landing light system that improves visibility of surfaces from overhead by illuminating the ground at critical distances for the crew to make last minute decisions regarding an approach. The project utilized computer-based optical modeling software to predict requirements for a potential landing light system. The analysis based the lamp prediction from commercially available LED chip sets and lamp optics. The goal was to illustrate a method to raise the surface contrast of a landing site within an acceptable contrast threshold for most camera systems and human observers to recognize hazards that would not be noticed with low inclination sunlight alone. The Apollo lunar landings benefitted from overhead sun or dark conditions. The surface lighting at the Lunar South Pole is a harsh environment where surfaces are lit from a low inclination angle by the sun (from the side). This change in lighting condition precipitates a need for updated lunar landing systems that facilitate improved recognition of landing sites, and thereby increase pilot awareness of landing hazards. The reliance on LIDAR and other autonomous mechanisms alone is risky given the known usage of visual monitoring for operator concurrence on current spacecraft programs and present-day autonomous land-based vehicles. Visual monitoring via cameras or windows requires the surface contrast to be within 3 orders of magnitude for reasonable recognition of objects. Artificial overhead illumination, when sufficiently sized, provides a means to even out contrast problems created by low inclination sunlight, potentially reducing piloting errors. Current vehicle requirements do not specify this type of guidance for the purpose of increasing mission success. An optical ray-trace simulation model was developed in Zemax Optics Studio to predict the best combination of LED power, LED optics, lamp quantity, and lamp location to raise the surface contrast to within 2 orders of magnitude from 3 orders required to further increased visibility and reduce risk. The project considered the following design constraints: potential base diameter of lander, approach distance(s) for a go-no-go decision point (200 meter), solar inclination angle (2-7), lunar surface reflectance (10%), LED chip sets, LED focusing optics, LED power, lamp quantity, lamp locations, and illumination diameter of lunar surface landing zone. The results can be used to establish minimum design constraints for vehicle landing light systems. With a solar inclination angle ranging from 2-7 degrees, the horizontal illumination of the lunar surface is attenuated by about 10% when compared to overhead illumination from the Sun. This modifies the sun's maximum of 130,000 lux to 13,000 lux horizontal illuminance. The artificial lighting system was designed to provide an 18-meter-wide illumination zone, to create viewing clearances around a 6-meter-wide lander. The system provides an average illuminance of 300 lux, meeting the 2 orders of magnitude criteria. The solution utilized modern Chip On Board LEDs, that each utilized 17 watts, with focusing Total Internal Reflection (TIR) lenses. A lighting system of 300 LEDs was arrayed along the "bottom" of a “lander”. With 17 watts per LED, the system is estimated to require 5100 watts. This is a large amount of power, but it would only be needed during critical phases during the landing. LED lighting systems can be dimmed, and it is assumed that as the lander arrives closer to the landing site, the lighting system power can be adjusted as needed to produce the necessary surface illuminance. The designed reduction of contrast improves reliability of safety assessments using real time visible light camera systems and out the window viewing by the crew.

T A Clark↗

Mineralogical and Oxygen Isotopic Study of Grossite-Bearing Refractory Inclusions From Reduced CV Chondrites

Grossite (CaAl4O7) is predicted to condense as the third major phase, after corundum and hibonite, from a cooling gas of solar composition. Thus, this refractory phase likely preserves a crucial record of high-temperature conditions in the early solar nebula. However, grossite is relatively rare in CAIs from most carbonaceous chondrite groups, except for CH chondrites. Only six grossite-bearing CAIs were reported and studied from CV chondrites, and most of them were coarse-grained Type A inclusions. Our previous study reported the occurrence of six grossite-bearing, fine-grained Ca-Al-rich inclusions (FGIs) from reduced CV chondrites Efremovka, Thiel Mountains (TIL) 07003, and TIL 07007. Here we present oxygen isotopic data of grossite-bearing FGIs from reduced CV chondrites to determine if any oxygen isotopic heterogeneity occurs within and among these inclusions. This isotopic study was coordinated with a FIB/TEM study to examine the formation and alteration history of grossite-bearing FGIs in the early solar nebula and on the asteroidal parent body.

J. Han↗