A Bayesian Approach to Reliability Assessment
Bayesian analysis used in Apollo project system reliability assessment
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Bayesian analysis used in Apollo project system reliability assessment
An approach for conducting reliability-based analysis (RBA) of a Composite Crew Module (CCM) is presented. The goal is to identify and quantify the benefits of probabilistic design methods for the CCM and future space vehicles. The coarse finite element model from a previous NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) project is used as the baseline deterministic analysis model to evaluate the performance of the CCM using a strength-based failure index. The first step in the probabilistic analysis process is the determination of the uncertainty distributions for key parameters in the model. Analytical data from water landing simulations are used to develop an uncertainty distribution, but such data were unavailable for other load cases. The uncertainty distributions for the other load scale factors and the strength allowables are generated based on assumed coefficients of variation. Probability of first-ply failure is estimated using three methods: the first order reliability method (FORM), Monte Carlo simulation, and conditional sampling. Results for the three methods were consistent. The reliability is shown to be driven by first ply failure in one region of the CCM at the high altitude abort load set. The final predicted probability of failure is on the order of 10-11 due to the conservative nature of the factors of safety on the deterministic loads.
On-line digital computer system for real time acquisition and processing of data at Materials Analysis Section of Quality and Reliability Assurance Laboratory
Active Thermochemical Tables (ATcT) were successfully used to resolve the existing inconsistencies related to the thermochemistry of glycine, based on statistically analyzing and solving a thermochemical network that includes >3350 chemical species interconnected by nearly 35 000 thermochemically-relevant determinations from experiment and high-level theory. Here, the current ATcT results for the 298.15 K enthalpies of formation are −394.70 ± 0.55 kJ mol −1 for gas phase glycine, −528.37 ± 0.20 kJ mol −1 for solid α-glycine, −528.05 ± 0.22 kJ mol −1 for β-glycine, −528.64 ± 0.23 kJ mol −1 for γ-glycine, −514.22 ± 0.20 kJ mol −1 for aqueous undissociated glycine, and −470.09 ± 0.20 kJ mol −1 for fully dissociated aqueous glycine at infinite dilution. In addition, a new set of thermophysical properties of gas phase glycine was obtained from a fully corrected nonrigid rotor anharmonic oscillator (NRRAO) partition function, which includes all conformers. Corresponding sets of thermophysical properties of α-, β-, and γ-glycine are also presented.
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Failure mode effect, block redundancy, functional redundancy and cooperative multichannel design for system reliability in Mariner spacecraft
Design reliability parameters for solid propellant rocket engines
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When design factors are considered as random variables and the failure condition cannot be expressed by a closed form algebraic inequality, computations of risk (or probability of failure) may become extremely difficult or very inefficient. This study suggests using a simple and easily constructed second degree polynomial to approximate the complicated limit state in the neighborhood of the design point; a computer analysis relates the design variables at selected points. Then a fast probability integration technique (i.e., the Rackwitz-Fiessler algorithm) can be used to estimate risk. The capability of the proposed method is demonstrated in an example of a low cycle fatigue problem for which a computer analysis is required to perform local strain analysis to relate the design variables. A comparison of the performance of this method is made with a far more costly Monte Carlo solution. Agreement of the proposed method with Monte Carlo is considered to be good.
This report describes a flexible, reliable, deep space life support system design approach that uses either storage or recycling or both together. The design goal is to provide the needed life support performance with the required ultra reliability for the minimum Equivalent System Mass (ESM). Recycling life support systems used with multiple redundancy can have sufficient reliability for deep space missions but they usually do not save mass compared to mixed storage and recycling systems. The best deep space life support system design uses water recycling with sufficient water storage to prevent loss of crew if recycling fails. Since the amount of water needed for crew survival is a small part of the total water requirement, the required amount of stored water is significantly less than the total to be consumed. Water recycling with water, oxygen, and carbon dioxide removal material storage can achieve the high reliability of full storage systems with only half the mass of full storage and with less mass than the highly redundant recycling systems needed to achieve acceptable reliability. Improved recycling systems with lower mass and higher reliability could perform better than systems using storage.
Reported here is a coupling of two NASA developed codes: CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) with the MAC/GMC (Micromechanics Analysis Code/ Generalized Method of Cells) composite material analysis code. The resulting code is called FEAMAC/CARES and is constructed as an Abaqus finite element analysis UMAT (user defined material). Here we describe the FEAMAC/CARES code and an example problem (taken from the open literature) of a laminated CMC in off-axis loading is shown. FEAMAC/CARES performs stochastic-strength-based damage simulation response of a CMC under multiaxial loading using elastic stiffness reduction of the failed elements.
Reported here is a coupling of two NASA developed codes: CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) with the MAC/GMC (Micromechanics Analysis Code/ Generalized Method of Cells) composite material analysis code. The resulting code is called FEAMAC/CARES and is constructed as an Abaqus finite element analysis UMAT (user defined material). Here we describe the FEAMAC/CARES code and an example problem (taken from the open literature) of a laminated CMC in off-axis loading is shown. FEAMAC/CARES performs stochastic-strength-based damage simulation response of a CMC under multiaxial loading using elastic stiffness reduction of the failed elements.
Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) integrated circuits (IC) are one of the key electronic components in today's sophisticated launch and space vehicle complex avionic systems, largely due to their superb reprogrammable and reconfigurable capabilities combined with relatively low non-recurring engineering costs (NRE) and short design cycle. Consequently, FPGAs are prevalent ICs in communication protocols and control signal commands. This paper will demonstrate guidelines to estimate FPGA failure rates for ascent and in space operations. The guidelines will account for hardware and radiation-induced failures, as well as Bayesian updates to failure rates. The hardware contribution of the approach accounts for physical failures of the FPGA IC. The radiation portion will expand on FPGA susceptibility to different space radiation environments.
Lunar landing spacecraft analysis and Surveyor reliability data acquisition
Reported here is a coupling of two NASA developed codes: CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) with the MACGMC composite material analysis code. The resulting code is called FEAMACCARES and is constructed as an Abaqus finite element analysis UMAT (user defined material). Here we describe the FEAMACCARES code and an example problem (taken from the open literature) of a laminated CMC in off-axis loading is shown. FEAMACCARES performs stochastic-strength-based damage simulation response of a CMC under multiaxial loading using elastic stiffness reduction of the failed elements.
Future high capacity satellite communication systems require signal processing on board satellites. The on-board signal processing includes switching of RF signals between multiple antennas to provide interconnection between the uplink and downlink beams. This paper describes the development of a dynamic switch matrix for a TDMA satellite switching system to be used in the next generation communications satellites. In this paper, a dynamic switch matrix, which includes the microwave switch matrix, the distribution control unit and the timing source, will be described. Several different microwave switch matrix architectures and switching devices were evaluated and compared. A unique coupler crossbar switch matrix architecture with dual-gate field effect transistor as switching element was developed. Experimental results of both microwave switch matrix (MSM) and distribution control unit (DCU) are presented. These test results verify the MSM with coupler crossbar architecture and dual-gate FET as switching element will meet the future SS-TDMA system requirements. Finally, the reliability of the dynamic switch matrix is addressed. The analysis shows reliability of 0.9981 for 7 year space operation can be achieved for the designed dynamic switch matrix.
Because of our present inability to produce error-free software, software fault tolerance is and will continue to be an important consideration in software systems. The root cause of software design errors is the complexity of the systems. Compounding the problems in building correct software is the difficulty in assessing the correctness of software for highly complex systems. After a brief overview of the software development processes, we note how hard-to-detect design faults are likely to be introduced during development and how software faults tend to be state-dependent and activated by particular input sequences. Although component reliability is an important quality measure for system level analysis, software reliability is hard to characterize and the use of post-verification reliability estimates remains a controversial issue. For some applications software safety is more important than reliability, and fault tolerance techniques used in those applications are aimed at preventing catastrophes. Single version software fault tolerance techniques discussed include system structuring and closure, atomic actions, inline fault detection, exception handling, and others. Multiversion techniques are based on the assumption that software built differently should fail differently and thus, if one of the redundant versions fails, it is expected that at least one of the other versions will provide an acceptable output. Recovery blocks, N-version programming, and other multiversion techniques are reviewed.
The analysis and evaluation of reliability measures using time-varying Markov models is required for Processor-Memory-Switch (PMS) structures that have competing processes such as standby redundancy and repair, or renewal processes such as transient or intermittent faults. The task of generating these models is tedious and prone to human error due to the large number of states and transitions involved in any reasonable system. Therefore model formulation is a major analysis bottleneck, and model verification is a major validation problem. The general unfamiliarity of computer architects with Markov modeling techniques further increases the necessity of automating the model formulation. This paper presents an overview of the Automated Reliability Modeling (ARM) program, under development at NASA Langley Research Center. ARM will accept as input a description of the PMS interconnection graph, the behavior of the PMS components, the fault-tolerant strategies, and the operational requirements. The output of ARM will be the reliability of availability Markov model formulated for direct use by evaluation programs. The advantages of such an approach are (a) utility to a large class of users, not necessarily expert in reliability analysis, and (b) a lower probability of human error in the computation.