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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2023

Joint analysis of Dark Energy Survey Year 3 data and CMB lensing from SPT and Planck . I. Construction of CMB lensing maps and modeling choices

Joint analyses of cross-correlations between measurements of galaxy positions, galaxy lensing, and lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) offer powerful constraints on the large-scale structure of the Universe. In a forthcoming analysis, we will present cosmological constraints from the analysis of such cross-correlations measured using Year 3 data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES), and CMB data from the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and Planck. Here we present two key ingredients of this analysis: (1) an improved CMB lensing map in the SPT-SZ survey footprint and (2) the analysis methodology that will be used to extract cosmological information from the cross-correlation measurements. Relative to previous lensing maps made from the same CMB observations, we have implemented techniques to remove contamination from the thermal Sunyaev Zel’dovich effect, enabling the extraction of cosmological information from smaller angular scales of the cross-correlation measurements than in previous analyses with DES Year 1 data. We describe our model for the cross-correlations between these maps and DES data, and validate our modeling choices to demonstrate the robustness of our analysis. We then forecast the expected cosmological constraints from the galaxy survey-CMB lensing auto and cross-correlations. We find that the galaxy-CMB lensing and galaxy shear-CMB lensing correlations will on their own provide a constraint on S 8 =σ 8 $\sqrt{Ωm/0.3}$ at the few percent level, providing a powerful consistency check for the DES-only constraints. Finally, we explore scenarios where external priors on shear calibration are removed, finding that the joint analysis of CMB lensing cross-correlations can provide constraints on the shear calibration amplitude at the 5% to 10% level.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian model selection for GRB 211211A through multiwavelength analyses

ABSTRACT Although GRB 211211A is one of the closest gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), its classification is challenging because of its partially inconclusive electromagnetic signatures. In this paper, we investigate four astrophysical scenarios as possible progenitors for GRB 211211A: a binary neutron star merger, a black hole–neutron star merger, a core-collapse supernova, and an r-process enriched core collapse of a rapidly rotating massive star (a collapsar). We perform a large set of Bayesian multiwavelength analyses based on different models describing these scenarios and priors to investigate which astrophysical scenarios and processes might be related to GRB 211211A. Our analysis supports previous studies in which the presence of an additional component, likely related to r-process nucleosynthesis, is required to explain the observed light curves of GRB 211211A, as it cannot be explained solely as a GRB afterglow. Fixing the distance to about $350~\rm Mpc$, namely the distance of the possible host galaxy SDSS J140910.47+275320.8, we find a statistical preference for a binary neutron star merger scenario.

(transients:) gamma-ray bursts↗
DOE OSTI2023

AToM: Advanced Tokamak Modeling Environment

Stability constraints play an important role in integrated modeling. The global plasma stability and macro-instabilities such as internal kink modes, neoclassical tearing modes, and edge localized perturbations limit the plasma performance and can result in large-scale transient events and plasma disruptions. These macro-instabilities can be also beneficial to the plasma performance. For example, the peeling models often lead to the edge localized modes (ELMs). However, the formation of stationary edge harmonic oscillations (EHOs) due to nonlinear interaction of peeling modes can result in a transition to the Quiescent H-mode (QH-mode) without ELMs. The profiles predicted with transport models need to be refined using the MHD stability constraints. This is important especially for transient and nonlinear stages of discharges such as ramp-up access to hybrid and steady state operation, and L- to H-mode transition as well as transition to the QH-mode. Several stability and MHD codes are already included in the OMFIT framework. These codes include BALOO, ELITE, GATO, M3DC1, MARS, and NIMROD. However, the verifications of stability constraints are currently mostly excluded from transport modeling workflows. The only exception is the EPED module which includes the ELITE predictions to limit the pedestal height. Here, we improved the OMFIT workflow to include stability calculations. Including the stability conditions to the integrated modeling workflow improved the robustness of the predictive modeling discharges. Being implemented in the workflow, the stability conditions can be also used for the stability analysis of experimental data. This improved the physics understanding of various discharge scenarios and can be used in experiment planning.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

IAM-FIRE: a Climate Emulator–Based Framework to Project Wildfire Impacts and Risks for Integrated Assessment Models

Most Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) underrepresent dynamic feedbacks from climate-driven disturbances such as wildfires, potentially overestimating the permanence of land-based carbon sinks. In particular, representing the impacts of forest fires is becoming increasingly important, as these are expected to intensify in the coming years. We introduce IAM-FIRE (Integrated Assessment Model – Fire Impacts & Risks Emulator), a novel framework that enables the projection of wildfire burned area (BA) and carbon emissions (CE) directly from IAM outputs. IAM-FIRE combines a spatial climate emulator, land-use downscaling, vegetation productivity modelling, and an empirical fire model to generate global annual wildfire impacts for arbitrary socioeconomic and emissions scenarios at 0.5° resolution for the period 2020–2100. Calibrated against GFEDv5 observations and using inputs from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), we report projections BA and CE derived from IAM-FIRE for four scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-6.6 and SSP5-7.6. The model reproduces historical global trends for total BA, including the observed global decline since the early 2000s, and for forest BA. Projected fire trajectories differ strongly among scenarios: total BA range from declines under SSP1-2.6 (-3.36 Mha yr-1) to increases under SSP3-6.6 (+1.6 Mha yr-1). Corresponding total CE show a similar divergence ranging from -15 to +10.6 TgC yr-1. Socioeconomic development exerts a dominant suppressing effect on wildfire impacts while climate change and CO2-driven increases in vegetation productivity amplify fire risk, particularly under high-emissions pathways. Compared with CMIP6 fire-enabled Earth System Models, IAM-FIRE exhibits greater sensitivity to radiative forcing and a stronger role for human-driven fire suppression, highlighting substantial structural uncertainties in future fire projections. By providing a computationally efficient and internally consistent approach to represent wildfire impacts within IAMs, IAM-FIRE enables systematic exploration of fire–climate–land feedbacks and supports improved assessments of mitigation permanence and climate risks in future integrated scenarios.

Rouhette, Theo↗
DOE OSTI2025

Internship Presentation: Integrating Safety and Cybersecurity: Security-by-Design with SOWT Analysis for Reactor Testing

This study covers leveraging reactor testing facilities that are primarily designed with a focus on safety to enhance cybersecurity testing. By incorporating reactor security-by-design with reactor safety-by-design principles and adopting defense-in-depth strategies that emphasize both safety and security, the research evaluates applicable cyber tools, models, and solutions. This includes simulating specific cyber-attack scenarios using reactor simulators and performing SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis to improve the cybersecurity of reactor systems.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Correlation Between Weather Alerts and Grid Component Failures for Grid Alert

Weather events cause most grid failures. Often, we even get notifications on our phones to take cover or be prepared for an imminent event. If electric grid utilities had a similar warning that also included probable scenarios and the equipment involved, they could prepare and minimize the effects. Recent research at Idaho National Laboratory into electric grid risk analysis methods resulted in a tool that allows for the development of the most likely scenarios given failure probabilities of grid components. INL has a project with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER) program to develop a Grid Alert application that receives messages from the existing emergency alert system, filters and determines components possibly affected by the emergency event, calculates probable scenarios uses MASTERRI and then notifies the utility if there is significant risk. Historical failure data of elements that comprise the U.S. electric grid have been compiled by utilities and organizations such as the international regulatory body North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). Nominal failure rates are obtained from this data. To make this tool possible, estimated failure rates are needed for different component types given the alert type, severity, and location. Historic weather-related grid element failures are correlated with historic weather events from Integrated Public Alert & Warning System (IPAWS). These correlated events and failures are used along with Bayesian updates from the historical norms to provide a modified failure rate for grid elements in the alert areas and calculate probable scenarios. This discusses the Grid Alert project plan but focuses on the data gathered and process used in determining failure rates for possible grid failure scenarios.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Plant-specific Model and Data Analysis using Dynamic Security Modeling and Simulation

The requirements for U.S. nuclear power plants to maintain a large on-site physical security force contribute to their high operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program’s physical security pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. The conservatisms built into current security postures may be analyzed and minimized in order to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within LWRS program’s physical security pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrating them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This document provides an update on the progress in applying a dynamic computational framework that links results from a commercially available force-on-force simulation tool, a commercially available thermal-hydraulic tool, and EMRALD to an operating commercial nuclear power plant. This report is only a summary of the progress and does not contain specific modeling results as those contain sensitive security information. This process of including plant procedures and multiple analysis results is being called Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework or MASS-DEF. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific force-on-force models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as CAFTA (Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System) or SAPHIRE (Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations), and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report documents the results of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. This report does not contain any plant's sensitive information and/or Safeguards Information. The purpose of this study was to verify that results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and to refine our guidance on the use of the framework. This assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Snowmass2021 - Letter of interest cosmology intertwined II: The hubble constant tension

The current cosmological probes have provided a fantastic confirmation of the standard Λ Cold Dark Matter cosmological model, which has been constrained with unprecedented accuracy. However, with the increase of the experimental sensitivity, a few statistically significant tensions between different independent cosmological datasets emerged. While these tensions can be in part the result of systematic errors, the persistence after several years of accurate analysis strongly hints at cracks in the standard cosmological scenario and the need for new physics. In this Letter of Interest we will focus on the 4.4σ tension between the Planck estimate of the Hubble constant H0 and the SH0ES collaboration measurements. After showing the H0 evaluations made from different teams using different methods and geometric calibrations, we will list a few interesting models of new physics that could solve this tension and discuss how the next decade’s experiments will be crucial.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Decentralised Reinforcement Learning for Dynamic Cyberattack Response in Microgrid Networks

Microgrids rely on communication networks for reliable operation, which makes them inherently vulnerable to cyberattacks. Such attacks can destabilise system dynamics and drive states away from their nominal operating trajectories. Although several physics-informed and machine learning-based strategies have been developed to counter these threats, the rapidly evolving cyber landscape enables adversaries to bypass static defences or rules-based mitigation approaches. This paper proposes a dynamic, online-trained and fully decentralised reinforcement learning (RL)-based cyberattack response framework to protect microgrids from evolving cyberattacks. The proposed framework deploys multiple deep Q-networks (DQNs), each associated with a distributed energy resource (DER), to enable localised and adaptive attack mitigation. In this framework, each DQN processes local voltage and frequency measurements—combined with intrusion detection system (IDS) alerts—as observations and rewards to guide decision-making. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate the robustness of the proposed framework under diverse attack scenarios and varying IDS-induced detection delays. Comparative analysis highlights its superiority over existing static or preexisting rules-based mitigation approaches. Finally, we present an analysis that shows the framework's scalability to real-life microgrids with more interacting agents.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Design Optimization of a Criticality Experiment for the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment Facility

Neutronics simulations of Molten Chloride Fast Reactors have quantifiable biases that arise from nuclear data, modeling choices, or numerical methods. The multiphysics nature of molten salt reactors makes it challenging to disentangle neutronics modeling biases from biases originating from other physical phenomena. In comparison to a mock-up reactor, criticality experiments can specifically assess the neutronics modeling bias while limiting multiphysics effects. The criticality experiment must be neutronically representative of the full-scale reactor to be valuable. Here, in this paper, we describe the design of a criticality experiment to validate only the neutronics of TerraPower’s Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE) and its criticality safety upset scenarios. The proposed experiment uses different chlorine-containing materials to maximize its similarity to the MCRE. The design process uses a constrained Bayesian optimization algorithm to investigate different objective functions that use covariance information for 35 Cl nuclear data. The experiments could reduce the nuclear data–induced uncertainty in k eff of the MCRE from 2161 to 886 pcm. They would also increase the upper subcritical limit of the MCRE criticality safety upset scenario from 0.94101 to 0.94476 when using the WHISPER analysis framework.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Examining transport and integrated modeling predictive capabilities for negative-triangularity scenarios

This paper investigates the predictive capabilities of TGYRO and TGLF models in assessing the performance of negative triangularity (NT) plasmas compared to positive triangularity (PT) plasmas in fusion devices. TGYRO predicts kinetic profiles, while TGLF analyzes turbulent transport. The study reveals that TGYRO reasonably predicts NT profiles similar to PT, although it overpredicts the high-power scenarios where there is increased experimental MHD activity. TGLF analysis finds reduced linear growth rates in NT and altered flux spectra relative to PT. Additionally, the TGLF SAT0 saturation model is observed to predict high-k transport and a reduction of particle transport with the electron temperature gradient. These findings are further corroborated by core-pedestal modeling using the Stability Transport Equilibrium Pedestal workflow, showing stronger confinement improvements in NT, particularly at higher power densities for the SAT0 saturation model. Furthermore, the study underscores the importance of accurately capturing turbulence saturation mechanisms for NT in order to project its performance accurately in fusion reactors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Macroscopic trends of neoclassical tearing stability in high-field H-mode tokamak pilot plants

The neoclassical tearing mode (NTM) stability metric—minimum marginally stable island width $w$$^{*}_{m}$—was compared across 14651 inductive high-field tokamak pilot plant equilibria. Larger devices with reduced elongation and/or increased minor radius demonstrated an order-of-magnitude increase in $w$$^{*}_{m}$, primarily due to a reduction in bootstrap drive. This work is part of an ongoing effort to ensure passive NTM-stability in the ARC tokamak, in which the technology to achieve active tearing-suppression with localised electron cyclotron current drive does not yet exist. The equilibrium scenarios in the database were Monte Carlo generated and normalised to the same >400MW fusion power, minimum pressure scenario at a range of plasma currents, before tearing analysis using the modified Rutherford equation was applied for all resonant poloidal and toroidal m, n modes up to n = 4. Single-helicity toroidal Δ' calculations in resistive DCON set the minimum marginally stable island width, and a simple modal scaling proportional to –m 2 n –1 was identified for high-m Δ' values. The dominant correlates of $w$$^{*}_{m}$ and Δ' across the database were analysed using interpretable machine learning techniques.

NTM seeding↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding the origin of early-type dwarfs: the spectrophotometric study of CGCG014−074

ABSTRACT Early-type dwarf galaxies constitute a prevalent population in the central regions of rich groups and clusters in the local Universe. These low-luminosity and low-mass stellar systems play a fundamental role in the assembly of the luminous galaxies observed today, according to the Lambda cold dark matter hierarchical theory. The origin of early-type dwarfs has been linked to the transformation of disc galaxies interacting with the intracluster medium, especially in dense environments. However, the existence of low-luminosity early-type galaxies in low-density environments presents a challenge to this scenario. This study presents a comprehensive photometric and spectroscopic analysis of the early-type dwarf galaxy CGCG014−074 using deep Gemini GMOS (Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph) data, focusing on its peculiarities and evolutionary implications. CGCG014−074 exhibits distinct features, including a rotating inner disc, an extended stellar formation with a quiescent phase since about 2 Gyr ago, and the presence of boxy isophotes. From the kinematic analysis, we confirm CGCG014−074 as a nucleated early-type dwarf galaxy with embedded disc. The study of its stellar population parameters using different methods provides significant insights into the galaxy’s evolutionary history. These results show an old and metal-poor nucleus (${\sim}9.3$ Gyr and $\mathrm{[Z/H]}\sim -0.84$ dex), while the stellar disc is younger (${\sim}4.4$ Gyr) with a higher metallicity ($\mathrm{[Z/H]}\sim -0.40$ dex). These distinctive features collectively position CGCG014−074 as a likely building block galaxy that has evolved passively throughout its history.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

4 d element induced improvement of structural disorder and development of weakly reentrant spin-glass behavior in NiRuMnSn

The pursuit of efficient spin polarization in quaternary Heusler alloys with the general formula XX'YZ (where X, X', and Y are transition metals and Z is a p-block element) has been a subject of significant scientific interest. While previous studies showed that isoelectronic substitution of a 4d element in place of a 3d element in quaternary Heusler alloys improves the half-metallic ferromagnetic characteristics, our research here, on the quaternary Heusler alloy NiRuMnSn, reveals a strikingly different scenario. In this study, we present a detailed structural analysis of the material using x-ray absorption fine structure and neutron diffraction techniques which confirms the formation of a single-phase compound with 50:50 site disorder between Ni and Ru atoms at 4c and 4d sites. Contrary to expectations, our density functional theory calculations suggest a considerable decrease in spin polarization even in the ordered structure. Additionally, we report on the compound's exceptional behavior, displaying a rare reentrant spin-glass property below ~ 60 K, a unique and intriguing feature for quaternary Heusler-type compounds.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar neutrinos and ν 2 visible decays to ν 1

Experimental bounds on the neutrino lifetime depend on the nature of the neutrinos and the details of the potentially new physics responsible for neutrino decay. In the case where the decays involve active neutrinos in the final state, the neutrino masses also qualitatively impact how these manifest themselves experimentally. In order to further understand the impact of nonzero neutrino masses, we explore how observations of solar neutrinos constrain a very simple toy model. We assume that neutrinos are Dirac fermions and there is a new massless scalar that couples to neutrinos such that a heavy neutrino— ν 2 with mass m 2 —can decay into a lighter neutrino— ν 1 with mass m 1 —and a massless scalar. We find that the constraints on the new physics coupling depend, sometimes significantly, on the ratio of the daughter-to-parent neutrino masses and that, for large-enough values of the new physics coupling, the “dark side” of the solar neutrino parameter space— sin 2 θ 12 ∼ 0.7 —provides a reasonable fit to solar neutrino data, if only B 8 or Be 7 neutrino data alone are considered, but no allowed region is found in the combined analysis. Our results generalize to other neutrino-decay scenarios, including those that mediate ν 2 → ν 1 ν ¯ 3 ν 3 when the neutrino mass ordering is inverted mass and m 2 > m 1 ≫ m 3 , the mass of ν 3 . Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of Increased Inverter-Based Resources on Power System Small-Signal Stability

The transformation of the power system to include more distributed energy resources (DER) implies an increase in the number of inverter-based resources deployed on the grid. Envisioning future scenarios, this paper presents a small-signal stability analysis for a power grid comprising synchronous generators and inverter-based resources. Three types of inverter control are considered: grid following, droop-controlled grid forming, and virtual oscillator control grid forming. Although small-signal stability of power systems is a widely studied topic, systematic analysis of mixed machine-inverter systems with detailed control models at various inverter levels are limited. This paper addresses the gap with numerical simulations tailored to the IEEE 39-bus system. Results show the system may become unstable at high inverter level of grid-following inverters, and grid-forming inverter control can potentially improve system stability, thereby enabling very high level of DERs.

grid-following inverter↗
DOE OSTI2026

Downscaled Daily 1 km Climate Data (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) for Southeast Texas. Full ensemble of downscaled CMIP6 climate projections at 1 km daily resolution.

For the SETx-UIFL, the daily NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) dataset climate projections were downscaled from approximately 27 km to 1 km. The SETx dataset provides very high-resolution climate data for the historical period (1950–2014) and future scenarios derived from CMIP6 global models under the four Tier 1 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs 1.26, 2.45, 3.70, and 5.85), developed for the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. A subset of ten NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 models was selected to represent a balance of model families, climate sensitivities, and availability across scenarios, ensuring a diverse and reliable ensemble for regional analysis. Selected models: BCC-CSM2-MR, CESM2, CMCC-ESM2, CNRM-ESM2-1, EC-Earth3, FGOALS-g3, GFDL-CM4, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, NorESM2-MM. Daily variables downscaled include tasmax, tasmin, tas, pr, hurs, huss, rsds, rlds, and sfcWind.

Persad, Geeta↗
DOE OSTI2022

New Empirical Formulation for the Sublimational Breakup of Graupel and Dendritic Snow

Abstract Ice fragments are generated by sublimation of ice particles in subsaturated conditions in natural clouds. Conceivably, such sublimational breakup would be expected to cause ice multiplication in natural clouds. Any fragment that survives will grow to become ice precipitation that may sublimate and fragment further. As a first step toward assessing this overlooked process, a formulation is proposed for the number of ice fragments from sublimation of ice particles for an atmospheric model. This is done by amalgamating laboratory observations from previously published studies. The concept of a “sublimated mass activity spectrum” for the breakup is applied to the dataset. The number of ice fragments is determined by the relative humidity over ice and the initial size of the parent ice particles. The new formulation applies to dendritic crystals and heavily rimed particles only. Finally, a thought experiment is performed for an idealized scenario of subsaturation with in-cloud descent. Scaling analysis yields an estimate of an ice enhancement ratio of about 5 (10) within a weak deep convective downdraft of about 2 m s −1 , for an initial monodisperse population of dendritic snow (graupel) particles of 3 L −1 and 2 mm. During descent, there is a dynamic equilibrium between continual emission of fragments and their depletion by sublimation. A simplified bin microphysics parcel model exhibits this dynamical quasi equilibrium, consistent with the thought experiment. The fragments have average lifetimes of around 90 and 70 s for dendrites and graupel, respectively. Sublimational breakup is predicted to cause significant secondary ice production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗