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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Connect microstructure evolution to property degradation with validated simulation

Reliable material performance is required for plasma-facing material (PFM) candidates. Previous research has shown that plasma and neutron radiation exposure induces microstructural changes in PFMs; changes in thermal and electrical conductivities and in material hardening and embrittlement were also observed after neutron irradiation. These material property changes will negatively impact the performance of the PFMs in a fusion reactor. Despite the well-known connection between material microstructure, properties, and performance, there is a need for validated modeling capabilities connecting PFM property degradation with microstructural evolution under fusion-relevant conditions. We are developing a simulation capability to couple plasma-induced microstructural evolution to material property degradation. Our approach relies on deliberate mapping between individual simulation models and experimental characterization for validation. The open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) software was used for this simulation capability development. A MOOSE phase-field model was coupled with the cluster dynamics code, Xolotl, to predict microstructural evolution. Microstructure characterization techniques, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and laser scanning confocal microscopy (LSCM) are used to validate these microstructural evolution simulations. Calculation of thermal and electrical conductivities with first principles simulations was performed for bulk material and for grain boundaries; these results are used within MOOSE models to calculate effective thermal and electrical conductivities as a function of grain characteristics. Thermoreflectance and four-probe techniques were employed to measure the thermal and electrical conductivities, respectively. A MOOSE crystal plasticity model was adapted to predict microstructure-sensitive deformation behavior, and X-ray diffraction (XRD) was used to collect bulk dislocation density data for validation. After individual simulation validation, these models are coupled to predict material property changes resulting from plasma exposure. We focused here on an experimental design to emphasize the separate effects of moderate thermal loads and plasma exposure using tungsten. Annealing of tungsten was performed under a protective environment for temperatures ranging from 500$^o$C to 1500$^o$C. The plasma exposure was completed in the Tritium Plasma Experiment at Idaho National Laboratory under a deuterium flux of 1e22 $\frac{D}{m^2s}$. This incremental approach is employed to build confidence in the modeling capability: separate-effects tests ensure that the models capture key mechanisms from single environmental conditions before predicting PFM property degradation under combined loads. We will show our early results from coupling these simulation models to predict PFM property changes from microstructural evolution. Comparisons of the simulation results with preliminary validation data will be discussed.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2020

Names Don't Fly: Smart Filters for Profanity Detection and Classification in User-Generated Content

Generally, names associate with a person’s identity. But what if in the pretext of a legitimate name and given the opportunity, users of software provide names to online web forms that carry along offensive language, slurs, and other profanity that is then sent to Mars ? The answer is simple: they don’t fly. In this paper,we perform model explorations to detect and classify inappropriate content in the names submitted from people across the world to ‘Send Your Names to MARS’ public engagement campaign.We propose a novel pipeline approach, that can effectively overcome the issues of lack of negative samples, noisy labels by gathering expert knowledge over time with human(s) in the loop and data augmentation, and achieve high accuracy in classifying inappropriate names with very little or no context. We describe cloud-based infrastructure to deploy our application and run predictions on large-scale data through our pipeline and achieve significant speedup over offline processes, with enhanced reliability and security.

Soderstrom, Tomas↗
NASA NTRS2013

A Satellite Mortality Study to Support Space Systems Lifetime Prediction

Estimating the operational lifetime of satellites and spacecraft is a complex process. Operational lifetime can differ from mission design lifetime for a variety of reasons. Unexpected mortality can occur due to human errors in design and fabrication, to human errors in launch and operations, to random anomalies of hardware and software or even satellite function degradation or technology change, leading to unrealized economic or mission return. This study focuses on data collection of public information using, for the first time, a large, publically available dataset, and preliminary analysis of satellite lifetimes, both operational lifetime and design lifetime. The objective of this study is the illustration of the relationship of design life to actual lifetime for some representative classes of satellites and spacecraft. First, a Weibull and Exponential lifetime analysis comparison is performed on the ratio of mission operating lifetime to design life, accounting for terminated and ongoing missions. Next a Kaplan-Meier survivor function, standard practice for clinical trials analysis, is estimated from operating lifetime. Bootstrap resampling is used to provide uncertainty estimates of selected survival probabilities. This study highlights the need for more detailed databases and engineering reliability models of satellite lifetime that include satellite systems and subsystems, operations procedures and environmental characteristics to support the design of complex, multi-generation, long-lived space systems in Earth orbit.

Fox, George↗
DOE OSTI2024

Control Co-Design Studies for a 22 MW Semisubmersible Floating Wind Turbine Platform

We present a control co-design software framework that can be used to optimize floating wind turbines and their controllers. Because this framework has many options for design variables, constraints, and merit figures, along with modeling fidelity levels, we seek to demonstrate best practices for using the tool while designing a floating platform for the new 22 MW offshore reference wind turbine developed within the International Energy Agency Wind Technology Commercialization Programme 55 on Reference Wind Turbines and Farms. During these studies, we evaluate the use of different simulation fidelity levels, the effect of using different load cases for controller tuning, and the difference between sequential and simultaneous control co-design solutions. Based on these efforts, we suggest using an algorithm that performs an initial search of the design space before optimization. We find that solving smaller optimization problems, in a sequential manner, leads to more reliable outcomes in fewer iterations than larger, simultaneous control co-design solutions. However a simultaneous CCD solution produces a platform with a 2% lower mass than the sequential CCD outcome.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-Performance Computing Based EMT Simulation: Power Grid with IBRs

Electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation of power grids with high-fidelity models of inverter-based resources (IBRs) is time-consuming and difficult to scale. The necessity for high-fidelity models of IBRs that incorporate the dynamics of individual inverters within IBRs has been showcased in recent studies. These studies focused on events with partial power reduction in each IBR during a transmission line fault in the power grid. These types of events have been documented in multiple North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) reports in the past decade. It is imperative then to find solutions to speed-up EMT simulations and scale the size of the region with IBRs studied in EMT simulations. In this paper, a combination of numerical simulation algorithms with high-performance computing techniques are employed in discretization and linear solvers employed in the proposed RE-INTEGRATE EMT simulation platform for power grid with IBRs. For ease of scalability, modular and object-oriented programming is used as these techniques are implemented. Additionally, automation software is developed to convert legacy software codes to the proposed RE-INTEGRATE EMT simulation platform. Thereafter, this platform is evaluated on multi-core central processing units (CPUs). Finally, scale-up tests are performed to showcase the scalability that is possible.

Marthi, Phani Ratna Vanamali [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000↗
NASA NTRS2005

Thermal System Verification and Model Validation for NASA's Cryogenic Passively Cooled James Webb Space Telescope

A thorough and unique thermal verification and model validation plan has been developed for NASA s James Webb Space Telescope. The JWST observatory consists of a large deployed aperture optical telescope passively cooled to below 50 Kelvin along with a suite of several instruments passively and actively cooled to below 37 Kelvin and 7 Kelvin, respectively. Passive cooling to these extremely low temperatures is made feasible by the use of a large deployed high efficiency sunshield and an orbit location at the L2 Lagrange point. Another enabling feature is the scale or size of the observatory that allows for large radiator sizes that are compatible with the expected power dissipation of the instruments and large format Mercury Cadmium Telluride (HgCdTe) detector arrays. This passive cooling concept is simple, reliable, and mission enabling when compared to the alternatives of mechanical coolers and stored cryogens. However, these same large scale observatory features, which make passive cooling viable, also prevent the typical flight configuration fully-deployed thermal balance test that is the keystone to most space missions thermal verification plan. JWST is simply too large in its deployed configuration to be properly thermal balance tested in the facilities that currently exist. This reality, when combined with a mission thermal concept with little to no flight heritage, has necessitated the need for a unique and alternative approach to thermal system verification and model validation. This paper describes the thermal verification and model validation plan that has been developed for JWST. The plan relies on judicious use of cryogenic and thermal design margin, a completely independent thermal modeling cross check utilizing different analysis teams and software packages, and finally, a comprehensive set of thermal tests that occur at different levels of JWST assembly. After a brief description of the JWST mission and thermal architecture, a detailed description of the three aspects of the thermal verification and model validation plan is presented.

Cleveland, Paul E.↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Create an improved method to calculate reliability of a conceptual launch vehicle system prior to fabrication by using historic data of actual root causes of failures. While failures have unique "proximate causes", there are typically a finite amount of common "root causes". Heretofore launch vehicle reliability evaluation typically hardware-centric statistical analyses, while most root causes of failures are been shown to be human-centric. A method based on human-centric root causes can be used to quantify reliability assessments and focus proposed actions to mitigate problems. Existing methods have been optimistic in their projections of launch vehicle reliability compared to actuals. Hypothesis: reliability of a conceptual launch vehicle can be more accurately evaluated based on a rational, probabilistic approach using past failure assessment teams' findings predicated on human-centric causes."Human Reliability Analysis Methods Selection Guidance for NASA"Chandler F.T., et al., NASA HQ/OSMA study group, July 2006. Outside HRA experts from academia, other federal labs, and the private sector. 50 system reliability methods considered, fourteen selected for further study, four finally selected as best suited for human spaceflight. Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) + Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) enabled incorporating effects and probabilities of human errors. While four down-selected methods deemed appropriate for failure assessment, it did not appear that these methods could be concisely applied to perform major system-wide assessment of probability of failure of a conceptual design without becoming unwieldy."Engineering a Safer World", Detailed, comprehensive study external to NASA Leveson N. G., MIT, 2011.Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP). All-encompassing accident model based on systems theory analyzed accidents after they occurred and created approaches to prevent occurrence in developing systems not focused on failure prevention per se, but rather reducing hazards by influencing human behavior through use of constraints, hierarchical control structures, and process models to improve system safetySystem Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) addresses predictive part of problem (a "hazard analysis"). Includes all causal factors identified in STAMP: "...design errors, software flaws, component interaction accidents, cognitively complex human decision-making errors, and social organizational and management factors contributing to accidents" can guide design process rather than require it to exist before-hand did not appear capable of concise application for system-wide assessment of probability of failure of a conceptual design without becoming unwieldy.

Williams, Craig H.↗
NASA NTRS2025

Modeling and Simulation Credibility Assessments of Musculoskeletal Computational Models for Simulating Astronaut Injuries Due to a Poor Spacesuit Fit

The musculoskeletal (MS) system of astronauts is subject to physiological changes, potentially leading to injuries due to the exposure to different gravitational environments experienced during spaceflight. These injuries can occur while an astronaut is performing an Extravehicular Activity (EVA) in space, on lunar or planetary surfaces or while wearing a spacesuit during terrestrial training for an EVA. The OpenSim MS modeling software can assess EVA induced MS injury mechanisms such as muscle strains, ligament injuries and joint injuries. One area of concern, since there are only a few different spacesuit sizes with limited adjustability, is the possibility of a poorly fitting spacesuit. This can cause unnatural joint motions and torques resulting in various MS injuries. A credibility assessment of the OpenSim modeling and simulation procedures is performed per NASA-STD-7009A to provide information on the credibility of the model’s use in simulating EVA related injury mechanisms. The credibility assessment evaluated various OpenSim models against the following eight credibility factors: data pedigree, input pedigree, code verification, solution verification, conceptual validation, referent validation, results uncertainty and results robustness (sensitivity). The models evaluated for EVA injuries will require additional credibility factor analysis and upgrades to the model features, such as adding ligaments to a whole-body model, to reliably predict and analyze the EVA injuries expected to occur due to a poor spacesuit fit. The degree of elevation strategy required to increase the credibility assessment scores will depend on the model complexity and the injury mechanism.

Christopher A. Gallo↗
NASA NTRS2024

Modeling and Simulation Credibility Assessments of Musculoskeletal Computational Models for Simulating Astronaut Injuries Due to a Poor Spacesuit Fit

The musculoskeletal (MS) system of astronauts is subject to physiological changes, potentially leading to injuries due to the exposure to different gravitational environments experienced during spaceflight. These injuries can occur while an astronaut is performing an Extravehicular Activity (EVA) in space, on lunar or planetary surfaces or while wearing a spacesuit during terrestrial training for an EVA. The OpenSim MS modeling software can assess EVA induced MS injury mechanisms such as muscle strains, ligament injuries and joint injuries. One area of concern, since there are only a few different spacesuit sizes with limited adjustability, is the possibility of a poorly fitting spacesuit. This can cause unnatural joint motions and torques resulting in various MS injuries. A credibility assessment of the OpenSim modeling and simulation procedures is performed per NASA-STD-7009A to provide information on the credibility of the model’s use in simulating EVA related injury mechanisms. The credibility assessment evaluated various OpenSim models against the following eight credibility factors: data pedigree, input pedigree, code verification, solution verification, conceptual validation, referent validation, results uncertainty and results robustness (sensitivity). The models evaluated for EVA injuries will require additional credibility factor analysis and upgrades to the model features, such as adding ligaments to a whole-body model, to reliably predict and analyze the EVA injuries expected to occur due to a poor spacesuit fit. The degree of elevation strategy required to increase the credibility assessment scores will depend on the model complexity and the injury mechanism.

Christopher A Gallo↗
NASA NTRS2010

Autonomous System for Monitoring the Integrity of Composite Fan Housings

A low-cost and reliable system assesses the integrity of composite fan-containment structures. The system utilizes a network of miniature sensors integrated with the structure to scan the entire structural area for any impact events and resulting structural damage, and to monitor degradation due to usage. This system can be used to monitor all types of composite structures on aircraft and spacecraft, as well as automatically monitor in real time the location and extent of damage in the containment structures. This diagnostic information is passed to prognostic modeling that is being developed to utilize the information and provide input on the residual strength of the structure, and maintain a history of structural degradation during usage. The structural health-monitoring system would consist of three major components: (1) sensors and a sensor network, which is permanently bonded onto the structure being monitored; (2) integrated hardware; and (3) software to monitor in-situ the health condition of in-service structures.

Qing, Xinlin P.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Advanced information processing system: Hosting of advanced guidance, navigation and control algorithms on AIPS using ASTER

This program demonstrated the integration of a number of technologies that can increase the availability and reliability of launch vehicles while lowering costs. Availability is increased with an advanced guidance algorithm that adapts trajectories in real-time. Reliability is increased with fault-tolerant computers and communication protocols. Costs are reduced by automatically generating code and documentation. This program was realized through the cooperative efforts of academia, industry, and government. The NASA-LaRC coordinated the effort, while Draper performed the integration. Georgia Institute of Technology supplied a weak Hamiltonian finite element method for optimal control problems. Martin Marietta used MATLAB to apply this method to a launch vehicle (FENOC). Draper supplied the fault-tolerant computing and software automation technology. The fault-tolerant technology includes sequential and parallel fault-tolerant processors (FTP & FTPP) and authentication protocols (AP) for communication. Fault-tolerant technology was incrementally incorporated. Development culminated with a heterogeneous network of workstations and fault-tolerant computers using AP. Draper's software automation system, ASTER, was used to specify a static guidance system based on FENOC, navigation, flight control (GN&C), models, and the interface to a user interface for mission control. ASTER generated Ada code for GN&C and C code for models. An algebraic transform engine (ATE) was developed to automatically translate MATLAB scripts into ASTER.

Brenner, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2014

Ka-Band Link Study and Analysis for a Mars Hybrid RF/Optical Software Defined Radio

The integrated radio and optical communications (iROC) project at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) is investigating the feasibility of a hybrid RF and optical communication subsystem for future deep space missions. The hybrid communications subsystem enables the advancement of optical communications while simultaneously mitigating the risk of infusion by combining an experimental optical transmitter and telescope with a reliable Ka-band RF transmitter and antenna. The iROC communications subsystem seeks to maximize the total data return over the course of a potential 2-year mission in Mars orbit beginning in 2021. Although optical communication by itself offers potential for greater data return over RF, the reliable Ka-band link is also being designed for high data return capability in this hybrid system. A daily analysis of the RF link budget over the 2-year span is performed to optimize and provide detailed estimates of the RF data return. In particular, the bandwidth dependence of these data return estimates is analyzed for candidate waveforms. In this effort, a data return modeling tool was created to analyze candidate RF modulation and coding schemes with respect to their spectral efficiency, amplifier output power back-off, required digital to analog conversion (DAC) sampling rates, and support by ground receivers. A set of RF waveforms is recommended for use on the iROC platform.

communication↗
DOE OSTI2025

Medium Voltage Testbed for Comparing Advanced Power Line Sensors vs. Transformers with Electrical Grid Events

Electrical utilities have relied upon potential transformers (PTs) and current transformers (CTs) for very accurate metering and to provide reliable signals for protective relays. These devices measure phase voltages and currents and are commissioned by electrical engineers. PTs/CTs can detect and react to various electrical anomalies that could adversely affect electrical grid operations. Less expensive alternative sensing technologies offer the possibility of wider deployment, particularly in grids that employ distributed energy resources. In this work, the performance of an advanced medium-voltage sensor is compared with that of a reference PT and a CT and experimentally evaluated for different power grid scenarios on an advanced outdoor power line sensor testbed at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The sensor is based on a capacitive divider for voltage monitoring and a Rogowski coil with an integrator for current monitoring. This study simulated a power grid model based on a utility circuit at the Riverside EPB of Chattanooga. The simulation circuit was created with MATLAB/Simulink software and was integrated into an RT-LAB project to run with the OP4510 real-time simulator at the OPLST. During the tests, the real-time simulations were run for 40 s, and the signal to record the test event with the power meter was set at 30 s for the event-trigger circuit. The advanced outdoor power line sensor testbed has a real-time simulator that is used to generate transient scenarios (e.g., electrical faults, capacitor bank operation, and service restoration), while the analog signals are recorded by the same high-resolution power meter. The behaviors of analog signals, harmonic components, total harmonic distortion, and crest factors are assessed for this power line sensor and compared with those of the reference PT/CT because of the absence of testing standards for advanced outdoor power line sensors. The results showed that this OPLS technology responded identically to the PT and CT under all conditions.

Piesciorovsky, Emilio [ORNL]↗
NASA NTRS2020

Enabling Assurance in the MBSE Environment

A number of specific benefits that fit within the hallmarks of effective development are realized with implementation of model-based approaches to systems and assurance. Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) enabled by standardized modeling languages (e.g., SysML®) is at the core. These benefits in the context of spaceflight system challenges can include [1]: • Improved management of complex development • Reduced risk in the development process • Improved cost management • Improved design decisions With appropriate modeling techniques the assurance community also can improve early oversight and insight into project development. NASA has shown the basic constructs of SysML in an MBSE environment offer several key advantages, within a Model Based Mission Assurance (MBMA) initiative [2, 3]. These include the following: • Model viewpoints that promote rapid and systematic assessment of requirements coverage, hazard tagging and risk management • Embedded safety assessments for launch vehicles • Deployment of model assisted development of reliability products - Failure Modes and Effects Analyses (FMEAs) and Fault Trees • Test Planning • Validation and Verification of complex functions • Support of Assurance Case development for complex systems In addition, while there are benefits to be harvested, there is a realization that these do not come without effort and cost. Enabling model-based approaches requires structure, not only in an organizational context, but in a modeling context as well. There can be a steep learning curve and costs associated to train skilled modelers. But, on the other hand, not all of the assurance community need to be modelers. Models themselves must conform to ontologies that enable assurance. This places constraints upon the models and modelers. Optimums have yet to be developed where resources and constraints on modeling must be traded off in the organization and modeling efforts for projects. A number of barriers need to be overcome, as well, which pose challenges to the developers of the software that supports MBSE/MBMA. Information and data must be made to flow seamlessly through the life cycle. Because there is a wide variety of tools used in the community, to avoid the problems of the past of silos, delays, and diverging interests, information should flow among these tools to support the “single source of truth” paradigm of MBSE. This will greatly facilitate MBMA and advancement of assurance functions.

Evans, John W.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Heuristic Evaluation Methods Applied to a Predictive Maintenance Chatbot

The need for an accessible iterative approach for evaluating prospective artificial intelligence (AI)/ML based technologies in the nuclear industry is needed, given the nature of algorithms and rapid advancements. This paper explores existing heuristic design principles for user-centered design and evaluates them based on their relevancy and usefulness for evaluating AI/ ML based technologies. Researchers at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) have developed a machine learning software application called VIsualization for PrEdictive maintenance Recommendation (VIPER), which is used to help users understand and engage with the tool to learn more about work orders, data used, predictive maintenance, and machine learning (ML) algorithms. Early user research studies used to access VIPER’s technology readiness level have occurred; however, there is room for further improvement of the software through heuristic evaluations along with other methods and user testing. This work describes the applicability of heuristic evaluation methods and cognitive walkthroughs to help ensure human readiness for prospective AI/ ML based applications, using VIPER as a candidate use case. This work supports industry in ensuring that prospective AI/ML based technologies are usable and useful for plant personnel at nuclear power plants, ultimately leading to their safe, reliable, and efficient use.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS2007

Automatic Command Sequence Generation

Automatic Sequence Generator (Autogen) Version 3.0 software automatically generates command sequences for the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) and several other JPL spacecraft operated by the multi-mission support team. Autogen uses standard JPL sequencing tools like APGEN, ASP, SEQGEN, and the DOM database to automate the generation of uplink command products, Spacecraft Command Message Format (SCMF) files, and the corresponding ground command products, DSN Keywords Files (DKF). Autogen supports all the major multi-mission mission phases including the cruise, aerobraking, mapping/science, and relay mission phases. Autogen is a Perl script, which functions within the mission operations UNIX environment. It consists of two parts: a set of model files and the autogen Perl script. Autogen encodes the behaviors of the system into a model and encodes algorithms for context sensitive customizations of the modeled behaviors. The model includes knowledge of different mission phases and how the resultant command products must differ for these phases. The executable software portion of Autogen, automates the setup and use of APGEN for constructing a spacecraft activity sequence file (SASF). The setup includes file retrieval through the DOM (Distributed Object Manager), an object database used to store project files. This step retrieves all the needed input files for generating the command products. Depending on the mission phase, Autogen also uses the ASP (Automated Sequence Processor) and SEQGEN to generate the command product sent to the spacecraft. Autogen also provides the means for customizing sequences through the use of configuration files. By automating the majority of the sequencing generation process, Autogen eliminates many sequence generation errors commonly introduced by manually constructing spacecraft command sequences. Through the layering of commands into the sequence by a series of scheduling algorithms, users are able to rapidly and reliably construct the desired uplink command products. With the aid of Autogen, sequences may be produced in a matter of hours instead of weeks, with a significant reduction in the number of people on the sequence team. As a result, the uplink product generation process is significantly streamlined and mission risk is significantly reduced. Autogen is used for operations of MRO, Mars Global Surveyor (MGS), Mars Exploration Rover (MER), Mars Odyssey, and will be used for operations of Phoenix. Autogen Version 3.0 is the operational version of Autogen including the MRO adaptation for the cruise mission phase, and was also used for development of the aerobraking and mapping mission phases for MRO.

Fisher, Forest↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rapid Bayesian High Entropy Alloy Designs Fabricated via Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing

Purpose: This project seeks to demonstrate a new high-throughput (rapid) alloy design technique applied to creating new high entropy alloys (HEAs) for extreme environments. High entropy alloys shift the design paradigm from being focused on a single principal element (e.g. nickel-based alloys) to target alloys that include high atomic fractions (X >10%) of multiple elements. These HEA materials can exhibit sluggish diffusion and enhanced corrosion resistance, ideal for potential applications in advanced ultra supercritical (A-USC) steam cycles for power generation. Scope: The addition of multiple elements in high atomic fractions creates an enormous design space that cannot easily be investigated by traditional material design strategies such as designed of experiments (DOE). This project utilizes a Bayesian machine learning algorithm that has been modified to work with calculation of phase diagrams (CALPHAD) software. This Bayesian algorithm reduces manual inputs and increase the likelihood of achieving an optimal solution. Compositional inputs to this algorithm will be assessed using existing material property models for high temperature strength and corrosion resistance. The target for alloy performance will be a 15% (~100 ⁰C) increase in allowable service temperature beyond heat-resistant stainless steels while maintaining or improving alloy cost and corrosion resistance. Haynes 230 was selected as a baseline, which is 57 wt% Ni with 22 wt% Cr 14 wt% W, and 2 wt% Mo as solid solution strengtheners. In addition to rapid design via Bayesian machine learning, the alloys were rapidly fabricated using a multi-wire arc additive manufacturing (mWAAM) technique which allows for precise control of alloy composition and assessing of alloy design “windows” to study composition effects. Build speeds for wire-arc additive processes are among the highest for additive technologies enabling rapid and reliable sample fabrication when compared to conventional methods such as arc button melting. The mWAAM samples will be rapidly characterized via instrumented indentation for room temperature modulus and strength and for elevated temperature strength via hot hardness tests. After being screened with hardness testing, potential alloys will be further evaluated with conventional microscopy techniques including scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) to assess agreement with modeling results. The most promising compositions will also be evaluated by printing full sized tensile specimens for mechanical behavior tests at elevated temperatures. Results: Bayesian machine learning of a single performance function was initially used to optimize five performance metrics: 1) single phase stability, 2) yield strength, 3) creep resistance (low diffusion coefficient), 4) freezing range (weldability), and 5) material cost. The single performance function was suboptimal as assumptions had to be made about the results while formulating the optimization. A goal-oriented Bayesian optimization strategy (Hanaoka, 2021) was implemented with CALPHAD for use with the five metrics above. This multi-objective Bayesian optimization (MOBO) enabled the design of NiCrCoFe alloys with V and W additions. A base composition of NiCoCr was selected as Ni provides a stable FCC matrix, Cr aids corrosion/oxidation resistance, and Co is a solid-solutions strengthener that also improves creep by increasing the activation energy. Fe helps reduce diffusion coefficients and cost. Finally, V and W were selected for their reasonable solubility and high atomic misfit to aid in solid solution strengthening. Cracking of the mWAAM specimens was an early issue, and the Easton solidification cracking model (Easton et al., 2014a) was selected for addition to the MOBO function. High performing alloys fabricated by mWAAM included Ni 28 Cr 25 Co 26 Fe 15 V 8 and Ni 62 Cr 18 Co 1 Fe 3 W 15 . It was observed that even after adapting the mWAAM process for W, the W did not fully dissolve. To fully evaluate the Ni 62 Cr 18 Co 1 Fe 3 W 15 composition, a cored wire (80-20 NiCr sheath/powder core) was manufactured and printed via WAAM, and HIP’ing was utilized to homogenize and densify the printed alloy. The V and W alloys produced met metrics 1 (solid solution), 4 (solidification cracking), and 5 (cost). However, an unmodeled mechanism of thermal stress cracking was identified in the WAAM produced materials, perhaps exacerbated by the lack of grain boundary strengthening elements (B, C). Conclusions & Recommendations: A high-throughput (rapid) alloy design technique was applied to designing and manufacturing new high entropy alloys (HEAs) for extreme environments utilizing MOBO and mWAAM. The developed process was rapid and effective in addressing the mechanisms included in the model. The lack of grain boundary strengthening element additions (e.g., B, C) was a simplification that likely produced thermal stress cracking that turned into a large part of the investigation. Additions on the order of 0.005 wt% B and 0.05 wt% C likely would have minimized thermal stress grain boundary cracking. Overall, the high throughput design strategy is promising for rapid design of metrics-driven alloys for advanced ultra supercritical (A-USC) steam cycles for power generation. The MOBO and mWAAM process could be commercialized to accelerate metrics-driven alloy design. In addition, the cored-wire process utilized for scale-up is a promising high-volume process for WAAM alloy development and scale-up.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS) v0.8 Model Documentation

The Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite, or PRAS, is a software package for studying power system resource adequacy. It allows the user to simulate power system operations under a wide range of operating conditions, in order to study the system's risk of failing to meet demand due to a resource shortfall, and identify the time periods and regions in which that risk occurs. This reports documents version 0.8 of the tool.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗