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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing the multisectoral impacts of future global hydrologic variability

There is significant uncertainty in how global water supply will evolve in the future, due to uncertain climate, socioeconomic, and land use change drivers and variability of hydrologic processes. It is critical to characterize the potential impacts of uncertainty in future water supply given its importance for food and energy production. In this work, we introduce a framework that integrates stochastic hydrology and human-environmental systems to characterize uncertainty in future water supply and its multisector impacts. We develop a global stochastic watershed model and demonstrate that this model can generate a large ensemble of realizations of basin-scale runoff with global coverage that preserves the mean, variance, and spatial correlation of a historical benchmark. We couple this model with a well-known human-environmental systems model to explore the impacts of runoff variability on the water and agricultural sectors across spatial scales. We find that the impacts of future hydrologic variability vary across sectors and regions. Impacts are felt most strongly in the water and agricultural sectors for basins that are expected to have unsustainable water use in the future, such as the Indus River basin. For this basin, we find that the variability in future irrigation water withdrawals and irrigated cropland increase over time due to uncertainty in renewable water supply. We also use the Indus basin to show how our stochastic ensemble can be leveraged to explore the global multisector consequences of local extreme runoff conditions. This work introduces a novel technique to explore the propagation of future hydrologic variability across human and natural systems and spatial scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Soil Moisture Buffers the Impact of Precipitation Variability on Ecosystem Productivity

Water availability governs ecosystem productivity, yet estimates of vegetation sensitivity to water can differ greatly depending on whether the sensitivity is examined spatially or temporally. In particular, the spatial sensitivity is often reported to be much stronger than temporal sensitivities, leading to highly uncertain projections of ecosystem responses to future climate change when using space-for-time substitution. The large difference between spatial and temporal sensitivities remains unexplained. Prior research, however, primarily relied on precipitation as the water availability proxy, whereas vegetation responds to soil moisture. Here, we combined satellite estimates of vegetation productivity with soil moisture data across water-limited ecosystems of the continental United States (CONUS) to identify a convergent sensitivity of productivity to water availability. Using precipitation, we show that temporal sensitivity is 66% lower than spatial sensitivity overall. Our analysis identified the cause of the difference to be primarily driven by the seasonal variability of water availability, rooting depth, and soil properties. When using soil moisture instead of precipitation, we observed widespread convergence in the spatial and temporal sensitivities—that is, the two sensitivities became much more similar in magnitude across all water-limited ecosystems within CONUS. These results show that overlooking soil hydrology can inflate perceived discrepancies between spatial and temporal vegetation sensitivities, leading to biased projections of ecosystem dynamics under future hydro-climatic change.

Wang, Huiqi [University of California, Berkeley, C↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Satellite-Derived Upper-Ocean Stratification Data Set for the Tropical North Atlantic With Potential Applications for Hurricane Intensity Prediction

Upper-ocean stratification strongly impacts vertical mixing and the heat flux between the ocean and atmosphere, especially under extreme conditions of tropical cyclones (TCs). Knowledge of prestorm stratification is important for accurate TC intensity prediction. In situ observations of the tropical ocean have significantly increased in the past decade. However, they are still too sparse to resolve ocean stratification variability in near-real time and on small spatial scales. Here, in this study, based on long-term observations and an ocean reanalysis data set from 2004–2017, we investigate the possibility of retrieving upper-ocean stratification from sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), and sea surface height (SSH) using a simple regression method. It is found that more than 90% of the mean seasonal cycle and about 30% to 80% of temperature and salinity stratification anomalies can be reconstructed using surface data from either observations or an ocean reanalysis. Simple regression can be used with satellite observations to create a high-resolution, near-real-time-gridded ocean stratification data set that successfully reproduces both the large and mesoscale variability of ocean stratification. When used in a simple expression for TC-induced SST cooling, the satellite-derived stratification shows improvements over an ocean analysis in terms of variance explained of SST cooling, offering promise as a near-real-time indicator of the ocean's impact on TC intensification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Second-generation downscaled earth system model data using generative machine learning

The second-generation Sup3rCC dataset provides high-resolution meteorological data generated through the downscaling of multiple earth system models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This downscaling is performed through application of a generative machine learning approach called Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data (sup3r). This dataset builds on the first-generation Sup3rCC data by applying improved bias correction methods and adding downscaled precipitation to the output variables. As with the first Sup3rCC version, the data still include temperature, wind speed and direction at multiple heights, pressure, three components of downwelling solar radiation, and relative humidity—all at 4-kilometer (km) hourly resolution over the contiguous United States. This is a 25x spatial enhancement and 24x temporal enhancement of the source 100-km daily-average ESM data. This extension of the Sup3rCC dataset includes data from six ESMs from two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) totaling 400 years of data with multiple future projections of changing meteorological conditions. The scenario selection was based on a structured evaluation of historical ESM skill and comprehensive representation of possible trajectories of future climate change in temperature, humidity, precipitation, solar irradiance, and near-surface wind speeds. The inclusion of multiple future projections is intended to enable users to assess key drivers of un 36 certainty and variability. All data are double-bias corrected, resulting in a product that can be used out-of-the-box for energy system analysis with minimal historical bias. The potential applications of Sup3rCC data extend to various topics in renewable energy resource assessment, energy systems modeling, and grid resilience studies. High-resolution future meteorological projections are critical for evaluating the effects of changing meteorological conditions on renewable energy generation, energy demand, and for optimizing energy storage and grid infrastructure. The 4-km hourly resolution of the downscaled data enables understanding of spatial and temporal variability at the scales necessary for energy system operational planning. In addition, the dataset can support risk assessments by providing detailed information on possible future extreme weather events and long-term meteorological variability at scales relevant to energy infrastructure. By offering an enhanced representation of possible future meteorological conditions, the second-generation Sup3rCC dataset enables more precise modeling of energy resilience and adaptation strategies in response to changing meteorological conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Genetic Identification of Lamprey Genera and Anadromous Ecotypes in Watersheds of the Northeastern Pacific Ocean

ABSTRACT Nonparasitic, nonmigratory Western Brook Lamprey (WBL; Lampetra ayresii ), and parasitic, anadromous Western River Lamprey (WRL; L. ayresii ) are sympatric lampreys that likely represent different life history variations of a single species. Novel genetic tools are critical for differentiating WBL and WRL, whose larvae preclude morphological identification (ID) and will enable comprehensive assessment of imperiled native lampreys of the Northeastern Pacific (including WBL, WRL, and Pacific Lamprey, Entosphenus tridentatus ). We developed 47 candidate single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers using whole genome resequencing of WBL ( N = 24) and WRL ( N = 15) from Ksi Ts'oohl Ts'ap Creek (Nass River, British Columbia, Canada) which are likely ecotypes distinguished by few divergent SNPs across multiple chromosomes. We used five novel candidate SNPs to perform genetic ID of WBL and WRL ecotypes in collections of mixed native lampreys from lower Columbia River tributaries ( N = 1474), Ksi Ts'oohl Ts'ap Creek ( N = 352), and ocean phase WRL from the Georgia Basin (Salish Sea, British Columbia, Canada; N = 91). Two previously published SNPs were used to ID genera, Entosphenus versus Lampetra . Morphological ID utilized photographs collected from a subset of genotyped lampreys, and high concordance was demonstrated between ID methods for genera (99%) and Lampetra ecotypes (> 98%). We characterized spatial and temporal composition of lamprey genera and ecotypes surveyed across NE Pacific tributaries under the expectation these compositions would be similar across nearby sites and across years at the same site. Proportions of lamprey genera were highly variable within regions and across years; however, Lampetra ecotypic proportions were spatially and temporally stable. WRL were rare in lower Columbia tributaries (~1% average rate among Lampetra ) and common further north (> 40% of Lampetra ). Genetic ID methods are powerful monitoring tools that create the novel ability to ascertain genera and ecotypes regardless of life stage, while increasing the efficiency of surveys by eliminating time‐intensive morphological data collection.

Silver, G. S. [Columbia River Inter‐Tribal Fish Co↗
DOE OSTI2026

Short-term electricity load forecasting: Application-driven evaluation of machine learning models across spatial and temporal scales

As we transition towards a decarbonized economy, the integration of variable renewable energy resources and new demands (e.g., electric vehicles, heat pumps) into the electricity grid places unprecedented pressure on grid operators to effectively anticipate and manage peak load. In this context, machine learning algorithms are proving to be indispensable for accurate short-term load forecasting, a crucial task to address these challenges. This study benchmarks 6 machine learning algorithms, including three neural networks and three tree-based algorithms, across various levels of spatial aggregation and time horizons (1, 4, 8, 24, and 48 h). The central contribution of this work is the comparison and analysis of load forecasting models not only based on statistical metrics, but also based on a novel error metric, which evaluates the cost implications of forecast errors for power system stakeholders. Results show that tree-based models outperform neural networks, based on statistical metrics, and yield less skewed error distributions for most spatial scales. However, through the lens of the novel error metric, neural networks are the more competitive choice, especially for forecast horizons that exceed 8 h. The study concludes with actionable recommendations to grid operators and highlights the need for the development of error metrics that link forecasting accuracy to operational costs. To promote transparency and open science, the datasets and Python code are open-sourced via a supplementary repository.

Houben, Nikolaus↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the Drivers of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability using a Stochastic Model Hierarchy

The relative importance of ocean and atmospheric dynamics in generating Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) remains an open question. Comparisons between climate models with SLAB and fully-dynamic (FULL) ocean components are often used to explore this question, but cannot reveal how individual ocean processes generate these differences. We build a hierarchy of physically interpretable stochastic models to investigate the contribution of two upper-ocean processes to AMV: the role of seasonal variation and mixed-layer entrainment. This interpretability arises from the stochastic model’s simplified representation of sea surface temperature (SST), considering only the local upper ocean response to white-noise atmospheric forcing and its impact on surface heat exchange. We focus on understanding differences between SLAB and FULL non-eddy resolving pre-industrial control simulations of the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM), and estimate the stochastic model parameters from each respective simulation. Despite its simplicity, the stochastic model reproduces temporal characteristics of SST variability in the SPG, including reemergence, seasonal-to-interannual persistence and power spectra. Furthermore, unrealistically persistent SST of the CESM-SLAB ocean simulation is reproduced in the equivalent stochastic model configuration where the mixed-layer depth (MLD) is constant. The stochastic model also reveals that vertical entrainment primarily damps SST variability, thus explaining why SLAB exhibits larger SST variance than FULL. Here, the stochastic model driven by temporally stochastic, spatially coherent forcing patterns reproduces the canonical AMV pattern. However, the amplitude of low-frequency variability remains underestimated, suggesting a role for ocean dynamics beyond entrainment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic Amplification of Subtropical Extreme Precipitation in a Warming Climate

Projected precipitation changes in a warming climate vary considerably, spatially, and between intensities. The changes can be greater or less than the ~7% K -1 Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) prediction, owing to dynamic effects. Using two global-climate-model large ensembles, we quantify the dynamically induced changes to precipitation extremes from the present (1996–2005) to late-21st-century (2071–2080) climates, as a function of recurrence interval, focusing on the subtropics. We separate non-CC changes into a term proportional to the present-day vertical-velocity spatial pattern (i.e., an amplification or damping thereof by a constant factor) and a residual. The amplitude term varies with recurrence interval, approximately canceling (doubling) CC for moderate (large) extremes, increasing precipitation variability. Contrastingly, the residual is quasi-uniform across recurrence intervals but spatially heterogeneous, weakening extremes over dry zones. This residual may be related to Hadley cell expansion, although this explanation is insufficient to explain many features, and other possible mechanisms are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian Approach to Regional Decadal Predictability: Sparse Parameter Estimation in High-Dimensional Linear Inverse Models of High-Latitude Sea Surface Temperature Variability

Stochastic reduced models are an important tool in climate systems whose many spatial and temporal scales cannot be fully discretized or underlying physics may not be fully accounted for. One form of reduced model, the linear inverse model (LIM), has been widely used for regional climate predictability studies—typically focusing more on tropical or midlatitude studies. However, most LIM fitting techniques rely on point estimation techniques deriving from fluctuation–dissipation theory. In this methodological study we explore the use of Bayesian inference techniques for LIM parameter estimation of sea surface temperature (SST), to quantify the skillful decadal predictability of Bayesian LIM models at high latitudes. We show that Bayesian methods, when compared to traditional point estimation methods for LIM-type models, provide better calibrated probabilistic skill, while simultaneously providing better point estimates due to the regularization effect of the prior distribution in high-dimensional problems. We compare the effect of several priors, as well as maximum likelihood estimates, on 1) estimating parameter values on a perfect model experiment and 2) producing calibrated 1-yr SST anomaly forecast distributions using a preindustrial control run of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Finally, we employ a host of probabilistic skill metrics to determine the extent to which an LIM can forecast SST anomalies at high latitudes. We find that the choice of prior distribution has an appreciable impact on estimation outcomes, and priors that emphasize physically relevant properties enhance the model’s ability to capture variability of SST anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Detecting multi‐scale riverine topographic variability and its influence on Chinook salmon habitat selection

Abstract Quantifying geomorphic conditions that impact riverine ecosystems is critical in river management due to degraded riverine habitat, changing flow and thermal conditions, and increasing anthropogenic pressure. Geomorphic complexity at different scales directly impacts habitat heterogeneity and affects aquatic biodiversity resilience. Here we showed that the combination of continuous spatial survey at high resolution, topobathymetric light detection and ranging (LiDAR), and continuous wavelet analysis can help identify and characterize that complexity. We used a continuous wavelet analysis on 1‐m resolution topobathymetry in three rivers in the Salmon River Basin, Idaho (USA), to identify different scales of topographic variability and the potential effects of this variability on salmonid redd site selection. On each river, wavelet scales characterized the topographic variability by portraying repeating patterns in the longitudinal profile. We found three major representative spatial wavelet scales of topographic variability in each river: a small wavelet scale associated with local morphology such as pools and riffles, a mid‐wavelet scale that identified larger channel unit features, and a large wavelet scale related to valley‐scale controls. The small wavelet scale was used to identify pools and riffles along the entire lengths of each river as well as areas with differing riffle‐pool development. Areas along the rivers with high local topographic variability (high wavelet power) at all wavelet scales contained the largest features (i.e., deepest or longest pools) in the systems. By comparing the wavelet power for each wavelet scale to Chinook salmon redd locations, we found that higher small‐scale wavelet power, which is related to pool‐riffle topography, is important for redd site selection. The continuous wavelet methodology objectively identified scales of topographic variability present in these rivers, performed efficient channel‐unit identification, and provided geomorphic assessment without laborious field surveys.

Duffin, Jenna↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating proxy influence in assimilated paleoclimate reconstructions – Testing the exchangeability of two ensembles of spatial processes

Climate field reconstructions (CFR) attempt to estimate spatiotemporal fields of climate variables in the past using climate proxies such as tree rings, ice cores, and corals. Data Assimilation (DA) methods are a recent and promising new means of deriving CFRs that optimally fuse climate proxies with climate model output. Despite the growing application of DA-based CFRs, little is understood about how much the assimilated proxies change the statistical properties of the climate model data. To address this question, we propose a robust and computationally efficient method, based on functional data depth, to evaluate differences in the distributions of two spatiotemporal processes. In this study, we apply our test to study global and regional proxy influence in DA-based CFRs by comparing the background and analysis states, which are treated as two samples of spatiotemporal fields. We find that the analysis states are significantly altered from the climate-model-based background states due to the assimilation of proxies. Moreover, the difference between the analysis and background states increases with the number of proxies, even in regions far beyond proxy collection sites. Our approach allows us to characterize the added value of proxies, indicating where and when the analysis states are distinct from the background states.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Entanglement structures in quantum field theories: Negativity cores and bound entanglement in the vacuum

Here, the many-body entanglement between two finite (size-d) disjoint vacuum regions of noninteracting lattice scalar field theory in one spatial dimension, i.e., a (d A × d B ) mixed Gaussian continuous variable system, is locally transformed into a tensor-product core of (1 A × 1 B ) mixed entangled pairs. Accessible entanglement within these core pairs exhibits an exponential hierarchy and as such identifies the structure of dominant region modes from which vacuum entanglement could be extracted into a spatially separated pair of quantum detectors. Beyond the core, the remaining modes of the halo are determined to be AB separable in isolation, as well as separable from the core. However, state preparation protocols that distribute entanglement in the form of (1 A × 1 B ) mixed core pairs are found to require additional entanglement in the halo that is obscured by classical correlations. This inaccessible (bound) halo entanglement is found to mirror the accessible entanglement, but with a step behavior as the continuum is approached. It remains possible that alternate initialization protocols that do not utilize the exponential hierarchy of core-pair entanglement may require less inaccessible entanglement. Entanglement consolidation is expected to persist in higher dimensions and may aid classical and quantum simulations of asymptotically free gauge field theories, such as quantum chromodynamics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Heterogeneity of the Dominant Causes of Performance Loss in End-of-Life Cathodes and Their Consequences for Direct Recycling

Recycling Li-ion batteries from electric vehicles is critical for reducing costs and supporting the development of a domestic battery supply chain. Direct recycling of cathodes, like LiNixMnyCozO2 (NMC), is attractive due to its low cost, energy use, and emissions compared to traditional recycling techniques. However, a comprehensive understanding of the active material properties at end-of-life is needed to guide direct recycling processes and the performance-dependent reuse applications. Here, NMC material from an end-of-life commercial pouch cell is characterized and bench-marked against pristine non-cycled counterparts with respect to capacity, impedance, crystallography, morphology, and microstructure to identify major degradation modes and understand variability in the end-of-life material. The spatial heterogeneity of each property throughout the cell is also quantified. While the degraded material demonstrated similar capacity as the pristine, its impedance and rate capability are severely diminished. Furthermore, samples from the periphery of the electrode layers showed more severe performance loss compared to samples extracted from central regions. The dominant culprit of performance loss is the material microstructure, where the magnitude of particle cracking showed the strongest correlation to the impedance components that are most unfavorably impacted. This work suggests severe cracks in cathode active materials are the primary challenge that direct recycling methods must overcome.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bio-reduction of ferrihydrite-montmorillonite-organic matter complexes: Effect of montmorillonite and fate of organic matter

Organic matter (OM) is often associated with Fe (hydr)oxides such as ferrihydrite (Fh) in soils and sediments, forming binary Fh-OM complexes. Microbial reduction of Fh results in destabilization of the complexes and mineral/OM transformation. However, little is known about the role of clay minerals in such processes, despite their common co-existence with Fh and OM in natural environments. Here Fh-OM complexes were synthesized in the presence of montmorillonite (SWy-2), forming ternary Fh-(SWy-2)-OM complexes. A metal-reducing bacterium Geobacter sulfurreducens was used to reduce Fh in the complexes under circumneutral pH and anoxic conditions with or without H 2 as extra electron donor. Various spectroscopy and mass spectrometry methods were used to monitor the progress of Fh bio-reduction and mineral/OM transformation. Results showed that G. sulfurreducens utilized mineral-bound OM as electron donor and/or carbon source to couple with Fh reduction. Relative to Fh-OM complex, Addition of SWy-2 to Fh-OM complex enhanced the bio-reduction extent of Fh by increasing the proportion of bioavailable OM that was weakly bound to SWy-2. However, its effect on the bio-reduction rate was variable. SWy-2 initially decreased the rate, because it spatially separated OM (electron donor) from Fh (electron acceptor). During later incubation, SWy-2 increased the reduction rate by sorbing biogenic Fe 2+ that would otherwise passivate the Fh and cell surfaces. Bio-reduction transformed mineral-bound OM to microbial products (e.g. necromass, extracellular polymeric substances), but organic compounds with aromatic structures, carboxyl groups and large molecular weight were more resistant to desorption and oxidation. The persistence of these compounds against bio-reduction induced transformation is likely due to their stronger binding with minerals and/or lower nominal oxidation states of carbon relative to other compounds. Our results provide new insights into the role of clay minerals in regulating biogeochemical cycling of solid-phase Fe and transformation of mineral-associated OM in anoxic soil environments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Single-shot ultrafast dynamics of nanosecond pulsed plasmas: Transition from ps–ns nonequilibrium to near-full ionization

The ultrafast multi-stage evolution of state-defining properties in atmospheric-pressure nanosecond pulsed plasmas is quantified using single-discharge, jitter-free, continuous streak-sweep spectroscopy of N 2 (C → B) molecular and N + /O + ionic species with a single-shot time resolution as short as ∼160 ps. An early period of extreme nonequilibrium is observed with vibrational temperatures [T V (C)] dropping from ∼8000 K at <200 ps after plasma breakdown to <4000 K within ∼1 ns, with near-ambient rotational temperatures [T R (C)] ∼ 300 K due to limited collisional energy transfer. This early-time T V (C) trend is representative of a direct and unquenched look into the high-energy tail of the electron energy distribution function; thus, it tracks real-time changes in the mean electron energy via the N2(C) emission signatures. This is followed by the rapid onset of N + /O + ionic emission after a distinct time delay of ∼14.9 ns due to multistep chemical kinetics. The ionic emission enables determination of electron densities (n e ) >2 × 10 19 cm −3 and electron temperatures (T e ) >36 000 K, indicating the transition to a nearly fully ionized regime. The ps–ns temporal dynamics are also compared between air and N 2 plasmas to assess the influence of collisional partners, as well as across the anode, cathode, and central gap regions to identify spatial variations in plasma behavior. Finally, this work demonstrates versatile continuously probing approach capable of spectro-temporal and spatially resolved single-shot measurements of key state variables in the ps–ns evolution of atmospheric-pressure nanosecond pulsed plasmas.

Electric discharges↗
DOE OSTI2026

Density profile of dynamical halos

Among the most fundamental properties of a dark matter halo is its density profile. Motivated by the recent proposal by García et al . [Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 521 , 2464 (2023)] to define a dynamical halo as the collection of orbiting particles in a gravitationally bound structure, we characterize the mean and scatter of the orbiting profile of dynamical halos as a function of their orbiting mass. Here, we demonstrate that the orbiting profile of individual halos at fixed mass depends on a single dynamical variable, the halo radius 𝑟 h , which characterizes the spatial extent of the profile. The scatter in halo radius at fixed orbiting mass is ≈16%. Only a small fraction of this scatter arises due to differences in halo formation time, with late-forming halos being more compact (smaller halo radii). Accounting for this additional correlation results in an ≈11% scatter in halo radius at fixed mass and halo formation time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Moisture availability mediates the relationship between terrestrial gross primary production and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence: Insights from global-scale variations

Effective use of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) to estimate and monitor gross primary production (GPP) in terrestrial ecosystems requires a comprehensive understanding and quantification of the relationship between SIF and GPP. To date, this understanding is incomplete and somewhat controversial in the literature. Here we derived the GPP/SIF ratio from multiple data sources as a diagnostic metric to explore its global-scale patterns of spatial variation and potential climatic dependence. We found that the growing season GPP/SIF ratio varied substantially across global land surfaces, with the highest ratios consistently found in boreal regions. Spatial variation in GPP/SIF was strongly modulated by climate variables. The most striking pattern was a consistent decrease in GPP/SIF from cold-and-wet climates to hot-and-dry climates. We propose that the reduction in GPP/SIF with decreasing moisture availability may be related to stomatal responses to aridity. Furthermore, we show that GPP/SIF can be empirically modeled from climate variables using a machine learning (random forest) framework, which can improve the modeling of ecosystem production and quantify its uncertainty in global terrestrial biosphere models. Finally, our results point to the need for targeted field and experimental studies to better understand the patterns observed and to improve the modeling of the relationship between SIF and GPP over broad scales.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fast Multigrid Reduction-in-Time for Advection via Modified Semi-Lagrangian Coarse-Grid Operators

Many iterative parallel-in-time algorithms have been shown to be highly efficient for diffusion-dominated partial differential equations (PDEs) but are inefficient or even divergent when applied to advection-dominated PDEs. We consider the application of the multigrid reduction-in-time (MGRIT) algorithm to linear advection PDEs. Here, the key to efficient time integration with this method is using a coarse-grid operator that provides a sufficiently accurate approximation to the so-called ideal coarse-grid operator. For certain classes of semi-Lagrangian discretizations, we present a novel semi-Lagrangian-based coarse-grid operator that leads to fast and scalable multilevel time integration of linear advection PDEs. The coarse-grid operator is composed of a semi-Lagrangian discretization followed by a correction term, with the correction designed so that the leading-order truncation error of the composite operator is approximately equal to that of the ideal coarse-grid operator. Parallel results show substantial speed-ups over sequential time integration for variable-wave-speed advection problems in one and two spatial dimensions, and using high-order discretizations up to order five. The proposed approach establishes the first practical method that provides small and scalable MGRIT iteration counts for advection problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗