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At least 523 records · Page 29

Low Ozone over Europe Doesn't Mean the Sky Is Falling, Its Actually Rising

Data Sources: NASA Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) (O3 profiles and columns), NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Chemistry and Transport Model (calculated O3depletion), and MERRA Tropopause Heights. Technical Description of Figures: The left graphics show MLS northern hemisphere stratospheric column ozone on Feb. 1, 2016. Very low columns are seen over the UK and Europe (<225 DU, inside dashed circle). The lower graphic shows the GMI-calculated O3 depletion. It's very small, suggesting the low O3 does not indicate significant depletion. The right graphics show how the high tropopause height in this region explains the observed low ozone. The lower panel shows that the high tropopause on Feb. 1 lifts the O3 profile compared to a typical profile found earlier in winter. This motion lifts the profile to lower pressures thus reducing the total column. The GMI Model shows only 4 Dobson Units (DU) of O3 depletion even though the column is more than 100 DU lower than one month earlier. Scientific significant and societal relevance: To quantitatively understand anthropogenic impacts to the stratospheric ozone layer, we must be able to distinguish between low ozone caused by ozone depleting substances and that caused by natural dynamical variability in the atmosphere. Observations and realistic simulations of atmospheric composition are both required in order to separate natural and anthropogenic ozone variability.

Stratospheric↗

Sensitivity of Global Modeling Initiative Model Predictions of Antarctic Ozone Recovery to Input Meteorological Fields

We use the Global Modeling Initiative chemistry and transport model to simulate the evolution of stratospheric ozone between 1995 and 2030, using boundary conditions consistent with the recent World Meteorological Organization ozone assessment. We compare the Antarctic ozone recovery predictions of two simulations, one driven by an annually repeated year of meteorological data from a general circulation model (GCM), the other using a year of output from a data assimilation system (DAS), to examine the sensitivity of Antarctic ozone recovery predictions to the characteristic dynamical differences between GCM- and DAS-generated meteorological data. Although the age of air in the Antarctic lower stratosphere differs by a factor of 2 between the simulations, we find little sensitivity of the 1995-2030 Antarctic ozone recovery between 350 and 650 K to the differing meteorological fields, particularly when the recovery is specified in mixing ratio units. Percent changes are smaller in the DAS-driven simulation compared to the GCM-driven simulation because of a surplus of Antarctic ozone in the DAS-driven simulation which is not consistent with observations. The peak ozone change between 1995 and 2030 in both simulations is approx.20% lower than photochemical expectations, indicating that changes in ozone transport due to changing ozone gradients at 450 K between 1995 and 2030 constitute a small negative feedback. Total winter/spring ozone loss during the base year (1995) of both simulations and the rate of ozone loss during August and September is somewhat weaker than observed. This appears to be due to underestimates of Antarctic Cl(sub y) at the 450 K potential temperature level.

Considine, David B.↗

How do intermittency and simultaneous processes obfuscate the Arctic influence on midlatitude winter extreme weather events?

Abstract Pronounced changes in the Arctic environment add a new potential driver of anomalous weather patterns in midlatitudes that affect billions of people. Recent studies of these Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages, however, state inconsistent conclusions. A source of uncertainty arises from the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Thermodynamic forcing by a rapidly warming Arctic contributes to weather events through changing surface heat fluxes and large-scale temperature and pressure gradients. But internal shifts in atmospheric dynamics—the variability of the location, strength, and character of the jet stream, blocking, and stratospheric polar vortex (SPV)—obscure the direct causes and effects. It is important to understand these associated processes to differentiate Arctic-forced variability from natural variability. For example in early winter, reduced Barents/Kara Seas sea-ice coverage may reinforce existing atmospheric teleconnections between the North Atlantic/Arctic and central Asia, and affect downstream weather in East Asia. Reduced sea ice in the Chukchi Sea can amplify atmospheric ridging of high pressure near Alaska, influencing downstream weather across North America. In late winter southward displacement of the SPV, coupled to the troposphere, leads to weather extremes in Eurasia and North America. Combined tropical and sea ice conditions can modulate the variability of the SPV. Observational evidence for Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages continues to accumulate, along with understanding of connections with pre-existing climate states. Relative to natural atmospheric variability, sea-ice loss alone has played a secondary role in Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages; the full influence of Arctic amplification remains uncertain.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

On possible interactions between upper and lower atmosphere

Geomagnetic data was compared with data on tropospheric and stratospheric circulation characteristics; a statistically significant shrinking was found in areal extent of the stratospheric vortex from the third to the eighth day following a 'geomagnetic storm' The meridionality of the 30 640-m contour line at 10 millibars increases markedly from 5 to 8 days after the storm. During the contraction of the polar vortex edge, the mean height of the vortex central contour decreases only slightly. This indicates that a stratospheric warming event is associated with a steepening of the contour gradient rather than a warming over the entire area of the stratospheric polar vortex. The troposphere reacts to these weak, but significant, stratospheric warming events by a shrinkage of the area of the 500-millibar cold air pool. This shrinkage commences about 3 days after the stratospheric warming. The investigation indicates that the energy input into the stratosphere that is received in conjunction with the geomagnetic disturbance has to come at a propitious time, when the stratospheric-tropospheric circulation system is not already undergoing a major readjustment because of an inherent dynamic instability.

Macdonald, B. C.↗

Tropospheric Wind Measurements Obtained with the Goddard Lidar Observatory for Winds (GLOW): Validation and Performance

The Goddard Lidar Observatory for Winds (GLOW) is a mobile Doppler lidar system which uses direct detection Doppler lidar techniques to measure wind profiles from the surface into the lower stratosphere. GLOW is intended to be used as a field deployable system for studying atmospheric dynamics and transport and can also serve as a testbed to evaluate candidate technologies developed for use in future spaceborne systems. In September of 2000 GLOW participated in a three week intercomparison experiment at the GroundWinds facility in North Glen, NE. More than 50 hours of line-of-sight wind profile data was obtained in a wide variety of conditions including both day and night operation. Typical clear air lidar wind profiles extended to altitudes of 20 km with a 1 Ian vertical resolution and I minute averaging. A description of the mobile system is presented along with the examples of lidar wind profiles obtained with the Goddard system during the New Hampshire experiment.

Gentry, Bruce M.↗

Tropospheric Wind Measurements Obtained with the Goddard Lidar Observatory for Winds (GLOW): Validation and Performance

The Goddard Lidar Observatory for Winds (GLOW) is a mobile Doppler lidar system which uses direct detection Doppler lidar techniques to measure wind profiles from the surface into the lower stratosphere. GLOW is intended to be used as a field deployable system for studying atmospheric dynamics and transport and can also serve as a testbed to evaluate candidate technologies developed for use in future spaceborne systems. In September of 2000 GLOW participated in a three week intercomparison experiment at the GroundWinds facility in North Glen, NH. More than 50 hours of line-of-sight wind profile data were obtained in a wide variety of conditions including both day and night operation. Typical clear air lidar wind profiles extended to altitudes of 20 kin with a 1 km vertical resolution and 1 minute averaging. A description of the mobile system is presented along with the examples of lidar wind profiles obtained with the Goddard system during the New Hampshire experiment.

Gentry, Bruce M.↗

A Multivariate Space‐Time Dynamic Model for Characterizing the Atmospheric Impacts Following the Mt. Pinatubo Eruption

The June 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption resulted in a massive increase of sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere, absorbing radiation and leading to global changes in surface and stratospheric temperatures. A volcanic eruption of this magnitude serves as a natural analog for stratospheric aerosol injection, a proposed solar radiation modification method to combat a warming climate. The impacts of such an event are multifaceted and region-specific. Our goal is to characterize the multivariate and dynamic nature of the atmospheric impacts following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. We developed a multivariate space-time dynamic linear model to understand the full extent of the spatially- and temporally-varying impacts. Specifically, spatial variation is modeled using a flexible set of basis functions for which the basis coefficients are allowed to vary in time through a vector autoregressive (VAR) structure. This novel model is cast in a Dynamic Linear Model (DLM) framework and estimated via a customized MCMC approach. We demonstrate how the model quantifies the relationships between key atmospheric parameters prior to and following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption with reanalysis data from MERRA-2 and highlight when such a model is advantageous over univariate models.

Dynamic Linear Model↗

Polar stratospheric optical depth observed between 1978 and 1985

Observations of the stratospheric optical depth at 1.0 micron obtained for high latitudes are presented for a 7-year period. Weekly averaged data determined from measurements made by the Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement experiment from October 1978-1985 show that the overall yearly values in both polar regions are controlled by volcanic perturbations, with most volcanic effects being experienced in Arctic latitudes. Conservatively, peak values found in the Antarctic region were approximately 0.02 and in the Arctic region about 0.55. Probable values for these regions are estimated to be 0.26 and 0.11, respectively. The weekly averaged data also show the seasonal fluctuations due to microphysical and dynamical processes. Comparison of the optical depth record with a weekly averaged 50-mbar temperature record indicates that polar stratospheric clouds are present in the southern high latitudes each year near this level from early June to early September. A depression observed in the optical depth record each austral spring season is believed to be the result of the downward displacement of particles caused by subsidence and sedimentation during the course of winter. Following the breakup of the vortex, optical depth values increase as aerosol is transported poleward. These features are noted to be present in the Arctic region as well, but on a smaller scale because of the satellite sampling methodology and the averaging scheme employed.

Mccormick, M. P.↗

An accurate radiative heating and cooling algorithm for use in a dynamical model of the middle atmosphere

The circulation of the middle atmosphere of the earth (15-90 km) is driven by the unequal distribution of net radiative heating. Calculations have shown that local radiative heating is nearly balanced by radiative cooling throughout parts of the stratosphere and mesosphere. The 15 micrometer band of CO2 is the dominant component of the infrared cooling. The present investigation is concerned with an algorithm regarding the involved cooling process. The algorithm was designed for the semispectral primitive equation model of the stratosphere and mesosphere described by Holton and Wehrbein (1980). The model consists of 16 layers, each nominally 5 km thick, between the base of the stratosphere at 100 mb (approximately 16 km) and the base of the thermosphere (approximately 96 km). The considered algorithm provides a convenient means of incorporating cooling due to CO2 into dynamical models of the middle atmosphere.

Wehrbein, W. M.↗

Representations of the Stratospheric Polar Vortices in Versions 1 and 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOS CCM)

This study will document the behavior of the polar vortices in two versions of the GEOS CCM. Both versions of the model include the same stratospheric chemistry, They differ in the underlying circulation model. Version 1 of the GEOS CCM is based on the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 4, general circulation model which includes the finite-volume (Lin-Rood) dynamical core and physical parameterizations from Community Climate Model, Version 3. GEOS CCM Version 2 is based on the GEOS-5 GCM that includes a different tropospheric physics package. Baseline simulations of both models, performed at two-degree spatial resolution, show some improvements in Version 2, but also some degradation, In the Antarctic, both models show an over-persistent stratospheric polar vortex with late breakdown, but the year-to-year variations that are overestimated in Version I are more realistic in Version 2. The implications of this for the interactions with tropospheric climate, the Southern Annular Mode, will be discussed. In the Arctic both model versions show a dominant dynamically forced variabi;ity, but Version 2 has a persistent warm bias in the low stratosphere and there are seasonal differences in the simulations. These differences will be quantified in terms of climate change and ozone loss. Impacts of model resolution, using simulations at one-degree and half-degree, and changes in physical parameterizations (especially the gravity wave drag) will be discussed.

Pawson, S.↗

Temperature and Chemical Species Distributions in the Middle Atmosphere Observed during Titan's Late Northern Spring to Early Summer

We present a study of the seasonal evolution of Titan’s thermal field and distributions of haze, C2H2, C2H4, C2H6, CH3C2H, C3H8, C4H2, C6H6, HCN, and HC3N from March 2015 (Ls = 66°) to September 2017 (Ls = 93°) (i.e., from the last third of northern spring to early summer). We analyzed thermal emission of Titan’s atmosphere acquired by the Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer with limb and nadir geometry to retrieve the stratospheric and mesospheric temperature and mixing ratios pole-to-pole meridional cross sections from 5 mbar to 50 μbar (120–650 km). The southern stratopause varied in a complex way and showed a global temperature increase from 2015 to 2017 at high-southern latitudes. Stratospheric southern polar temperatures, which were observed to be as low as 120 K in early 2015 due to the polar night, showed a 30 K increase (at 0.5 mbar) from March 2015 to May 2017 due to adiabatic heating in the subsiding branch of the global overturning circulation. All photochemical compounds were enriched at the south pole by this subsidence. Polar cross sections of these enhanced species, which are good tracers of the global dynamics, highlighted changes in the structure of the southern polar vortex. These high enhancements combined with the unusually low temperatures (<120 K) of the deep stratosphere resulted in condensation at the south pole between 0.1 and 0.03 mbar (240–280 km) of HCN, HC3N, C6H6 and possibly C4H2 in March 2015 (Ls = 66°). These molecules were observed to condense deeper with increasing distance from the south pole. At high-northern latitudes, stratospheric enrichments remaining from the winter were observed below 300 km between 2015 and May 2017 (Ls = 90°) for all chemical compounds and up to September 2017 (Ls = 93°) for C2H2, C2H4, CH3C2H, C3H8, and C4H2. In September 2017, these local enhancements were less pronounced than earlier for C2H2, C4H2, CH3C2H, HC3N, and HCN, and were no longer observed for C2H6 and C6 H6, which suggests a change in the northern polar dynamics near the summer solstice. These enhancements observed during the entire spring may be due to confinement of this enriched air by a small remaining winter circulation cell that persisted in the low stratosphere up to the northern summer solstice, according to predictions of the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Titan Global Climate Model (IPSL Titan GCM). In the mesosphere we derived a depleted layer in C2H2, HCN, and C2H6 from the north pole to mid-southern latitudes, while C4H2, C3H4, C2H4, and HC3N seem to have been enriched in the same region. In the deep stratosphere, all molecules except C2H4 were depleted due to their condensation sink located deeper than 5 mbar outside the southern polar vortex. HCN, C4H2, and CH3C2H volume mixing ratio cross section contours showed steep slopes near the mid-latitudes or close to the equator, which can be explained by upwelling air in this region. Upwelling is also supported by the cross section of the C2H4 (the only molecule not condensing among those studied here) volume mixing ratio observed in the northern hemisphere. We derived the zonal wind velocity up to mesospheric levels from the retrieved thermal field. We show that zonal winds were faster and more confined around the south pole in 2015 (Ls = 67−72°) than later. In 2016, the polar zonal wind speed decreased while the fastest winds had migrated toward low-southern latitudes.

S Vinatier↗

The Impact of Atmospheric Dynamics and Anthropogenic Very Short-Lived Chlorine Species on the Recovery of Extra-Polar Ozone

The successful implementation of the Montreal Protocol has led to a decrease in the atmospheric abundance of ozone-depleting substances and a slowing in the destruction of the ozone layer. Previous studies have suggested that atmospheric dynamics, or a rise in compounds not regulated by the Montreal Protocol, such as very short-lived chlorine species (VSL Cl), may lead to a slower than expected recovery of the ozone layer. In this presentation, we examine the expected recovery of total column ozone (TCO) and stratospheric column ozone (SCO) to values observed in 1980 using a novel multiple linear regression (MLR) model that involves a month-by-month regression. The MLR model is trained to TCO anomalies from six data records (SBUV v8.7 MOD, SBUV v8.6 COH, WOUDC, GSG, GTO-ECV, MSR-2) over 1979 to 2021 for the Northern Hemisphere (35N – 60N), the Southern Hemisphere (60S – 35S) and the Tropics (20S – 20N), and SCO anomalies from ML-TOMCAT for these same zonal bands. The MLR includes the effect of halogens (equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC)), total solar irradiance, stratospheric aerosol optical depth, quasi-biennial oscillation, and the El Niño Southern Oscillation as regressors. We also include the effect of atmospheric dynamics such as the Brewer-Dobson Circulation, Arctic Oscillation, and the Antarctic Oscillation, and VSL Cl species in the formulation of EESC. We use a novel approach to the MLR framework, by separating the observed and regressor time series into the respective months (separating all of the Januarys, Februarys, etc.). Then we conduct a regression for each month from 1979 to 2021 for the three zonal bands denoted above. The model results for each month are combined together to achieve a full monthly time series from 1979 to 2021. We use this novel approach to ascertain the effect of atmospheric dynamics on TCO and SCO, since the dynamical proxies affect ozone in a distinctly different manner for various months. In this presentation, we will quantify the role of both the inclusion of VSL Cl species in the formulation of EESC as well as atmospheric dynamics in explaining the slower than expected recovery of extra-polar TCO and SCO over the past decade.

Laura A. McBride↗

An Estimation of the Climatic Effects of Stratospheric Ozone Losses during the 1980s

In order to study the potential climatic effects of the ozone hole more directly and to assess the validity of previous lower resolution model results, the latest high spatial resolution version of the Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., seasonal radiative dynamical climate model is used to simulate the climatic effects of ozone changes relative to the other greenhouse gases. The steady-state climatic effect of a sustained decrease in lower stratospheric ozone, similar in magnitude to the observed 1979-90 decrease, is estimated by comparing three steady-state climate simulations: 1) 1979 greenhouse gas concentrations and 1979 ozone, II) 1990 greenhouse gas concentrations with 1979 ozone, and III) 1990 greenhouse gas concentrations with 1990 ozone. The simulated increase in surface air temperature resulting from nonozone greenhouse gases is 0.272 K. When changes in lower stratospheric ozone are included, the greenhouse warming is 0.165 K, which is approximately 39% lower than when ozone is fixed at the 1979 concentrations. Ozone perturbations at high latitudes result in a cooling of the surface-troposphere system that is greater (by a factor of 2.8) than that estimated from the change in radiative forcing resulting from ozone depiction and the model's 2 x CO, climate sensitivity. The results suggest that changes in meridional heat transport from low to high latitudes combined with the decrease in the infrared opacity of the lower stratosphere are very important in determining the steady-state response to high latitude ozone losses. The 39% compensation in greenhouse warming resulting from lower stratospheric ozone losses is also larger than the 28% compensation simulated previously by the lower resolution model. The higher resolution model is able to resolve the high latitude features of the assumed ozone perturbation, which are important in determining the overall climate sensitivity to these perturbations.

MacKay, Robert M.↗

Comparison of U.K. Meteorological Office and U.S. National Meteorological Center Stratospheric Analyses During Northern and Southern Winter

Meteorological data from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), produced using a data assimilation system, and the U.S. National Meteorological Center (NMC), produced using an objective analysis procedure, are compared for dynamically active periods during the Arctic and Antarctic winters of 1992. The differences seen during these periods are generally similar to those seen during other winter periods. Both UKMO and NMC analyses capture the large-scale evolution of the stratospheric circulation during northern hemisphere (NH) and southern hemisphere (SH) winters. Stronger vertical and horizontal temperature gradients develop in the UKMO than in the NMC data during stratospheric warmings; comparison with satellite measurements with better vertical resolution suggests that the stronger vertical temperature gradients are more realistic. The NH polar vortex is slightly stronger in the UKMO analyses than in the NMC in the middle and upper stratosphere, and midstratospheric temperatures are slightly lower. The SH polar vortex as represented in the UKMO analyses is stronger and colder in the midstratosphere than its representation in the NMC analyses. The UKMO analyses on occasion exhibit some difficulties in representing cross-polar flow or changes in curvature of the wind field at very high latitudes. In addition to the above study of two wintertime periods, a more detailed comparison of lower-stratospheric temperatures is done for all Arctic and Antarctic winter periods since the launch of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. In the NH lower stratosphere during winter, NMC temperatures are consistently lower than UKMO temperatures and closer to radiosonde temperatures than are UKMO temperatures. Conversely, in the SH lower stratosphere during winter, UKMO temperatures are typically lower than NMC and are closer to radiosonde temperature observations.

Manney, G. L.↗

A three-dimensional dynamical-chemical model of atmospheric ozone

A three-year integration of a global three-dimensional model including dynamics and simple photochemistry is used to predict ozone. Good agreement with observation is obtained for stratospheric motion patterns, meridional circulations, ozone density as a function of height and latitude, eddy transports of ozone, surface destruction of ozone, and correlations of ozone with other variables. The annual cycle of columnar ozone in high latitudes is present, but at a smaller amplitude than observed. Vertical transport of ozone downward from the main generation level at 30 km is accomplished primarily by small-scale eddy diffusion between 20 and 30 km and again near the ground; large-scale vertical transport dominates in between. The model predicts a secondary maximum in ozone mixing ratio at 45 km somewhat equatorward of the winter polar-night zone. This feature, recently observed from satellite measurements, is thought to be caused by the temperature dependence of reaction rates in the Chapman scheme. The principal deficiency of the model is an underprediction of the spring ozone concentration in high latitudes in the lower stratosphere.

Cunnold, D.↗

The meteorology of Titan

Current knowledge of Titan's meteorology is reviewed, including diagnostic inferences of the large scale wind field and prognostic studies of thermal and momentum balances. Titan's winds were largely inferred from temperature maps whose spatial coverage is incomplete. The inferred winds are cyclostrophic, approximately 75 m/s in the upper stratosphere. The direction of the winds is ambiguous from the temperature data, but arguments based on the spin up of a planetary atmosphere from an initial state of rest strongly suggest that Titan's winds blow predominantly in the direction of the planetary rotation. Stratospheric temperatures exhibit a north-south asymmetry, suggesting that seasonal variations are controlled by a dynamical inertia associated with the need to transport angular momentum as well as heat. A consideration of the global angular momentum balance indicates that the zonally averaged winds near the surface are approximately 0.3 m/s.

Flasar, F. M.↗

Water Measurements using a Raman Lidar

The research record for the usefulness of Raman Lidar in addressing a broad range of important atmospheric research topics is well established. Raman lidar technology has been used to measure tropospheric aerosols, stratospheric aerosols and cirrus clouds. Arguably the most important measurements offered by Raman lidar for both dynamic and radiative studies, however, is that of water vapor. We will describe large improvements in Raman lidar measurements of water vapor made possible through recent technology upgrades. Furthermore, we will present the use of Raman lidar to study liquid water in the atmosphere and describe current research into the use of Raman lidar measurements to estimate ice water content of cirrus clouds.

Whiteman, D. N.↗

Volcanic Climate Warming through Radiative and Dynamical Feedbacks of SO2 Emissions

Volcanic flood basalt eruptions have been linked to or are contemporaneous with major climate disruptions, ocean anoxic events, and mass extinctions throughout at least the last 400M years of Earth’s history. Previous studies and recent history have shown that volcanically-driven climate cooling can occur through reflection of sunlight by H2SO4 aerosols, while longer-term climate warming can occur via CO2 emissions. We use the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry- Climate Model to simulate a four-year duration volcanic SO2 emission of the scale of the Wapshilla Ridge member of the Columbia River Basalt eruption. Brief cooling from H2SO4 aerosols is outweighed by dynamically and radiatively driven warming of the climate through a three orders of magnitude increase in stratospheric H2O vapor.

Scott D Guzewich↗