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At least 523 records · Page 29

A simple radiative transfer model of the high latitude mesospheric scattering layer

A simple radiative transfer model of the particle layer found at 85 km over the summer poles is presented. The effects of the layer on the global radiative temperature, the polar region temperature, and the greenhouse effect are discussed. The estimated magnitude of the global radiative temperature change is 3.5 x .001 K to 2.2 x .01 K, depending on the value of the imaginary part of the particle index of refraction. The layer is shown to have a possible secondary influence on the temperature of the polar region while the contribution which the layer makes to the greenhouse effect is shown to be negligible. The imaginary part of the particle index of refraction is shown to be important in determining the attenuation properties of the layer.

Hummel, J. R.↗

Volcanic explosions and climatic change - A theoretical assessment

A theoretical assessment is presented of the influence of volcanic activity on the climate. The methodology of radiative transfer calculations is described and the sources of the adopted parameters are considered. The dependence of various quantities of interest is plotted as a function of the change in the optical depth of the stratosphere at a reference wavelength. An investigation is conducted concerning the increase in optical depth produced by volcanic explosions. An estimate is obtained regarding the magnitude of the mean surface temperature change resulting from the added aerosols.

Pollack, J. B.↗

Device Would Monitor Body Parameters Continuously

Proposed miniature electronic circuit continuously measures temperature of human subject. Once mounted on subject's skin with medical adhesive tape, electronic thermometer remains in thermal equilibrium with subject's body; thereafter, no need to wait until thermometer reaches body temperature before taking reading. Design provides for switches used to set alarm alerting medical attendants if subject's temperature exceeds critical level. For use on very young child, electronic thermometer sewed into shirt or other suitable garment; device held in contact with skin, and child could not swallow it. Replacement of sensor and computing algorithm changes temperature monitor to cardiorespiratory monitor.

Cook, Joseph S., Jr.↗

Altitude Performance of Allison V-1710-93 Engine and Two-Stage Supercharger

Bench tests have been made of an Allison V-1710-93 engine at simulated altitudes of 17,000 and 29,000 feet to determine the performance of the engine, the characteristics of the induction system, and the modifications required in the induction system for the center dot development of 1840 brake horsepower at 17,030 feet and 1200 horsepower at 29,000 feet. With the engine speed maintained at a constant value of 3000 rpm, the tip speed of the auxiliary-stage supercharger was varied from the minimum to the maximum speed. Measurements were made to determine engine power, fuel and air consumptions, and pressure and temperature changes introduced by each component of the induction system. Although the over-all pressure ratios of the superchargers agreed with those determined from previous sea-level bench tests of these units, the over-all temperature rise was -generally much lower than had been anticipated. In order to obtain the desired brake horsepower, some form of charge-air cooling is essential; the carburetor should either be enlarged or removed; and the minimum gear ratios of the engine-stage and the minimum gear ratios of the engine-stage and the auxiliary-stage superchargers should be 8.1:1 and 8.08:1, respectively.

Edward Glodeck↗

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open-data, open-science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain. As they are traceable to IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel. The indicators show that, for the 2014–2023 decade average, observed warming was 1.19 [1.06 to 1.30] °C, of which 1.19 [1.0 to 1.4] °C was human-induced. For the single-year average, human-induced warming reached 1.31 [1.1 to 1.7] °C in 2023 relative to 1850–1900. The best estimate is below the 2023-observed warming record of 1.43 [1.32 to 1.53] °C, indicating a substantial contribution of internal variability in the 2023 record. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2014–2023. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of net greenhouse gas emissions being at a persistent high of 53±5.4 Gt CO 2 e yr -1 over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO 2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for some of the indicators presented here.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Water balance response of permafrost-affected watersheds to changes in air temperatures

Abstract Observations show increases in river discharge to the Arctic Ocean especially in winter over the last decades but the physical mechanisms driving these changes are not yet fully understood. We hypothesize that even in the absence of a precipitation increase, permafrost degradation alone can lead to increased annual river runoff. To test this hypothesis we perform 12 millennium-long simulations over an idealized hypothetical watershed (1 km 2 ) using a distributed, physically based water balance model (Water flow and Balance Simulation Model, WaSiM). The model is forced by both a hypothetical warming defined by an air temperature increase of 7.5 ∘ C over 100 years, and a corresponding cooling scenario. To assess model sensitivity we vary soil saturated hydraulic conductivity and lateral subsurface flow configuration. Under the warming scenario, changes in subsurface water transport due to ground temperature changes result in a 7%–14% increase in annual runoff accompanied by a 6%–20% decrease in evapotranspiration. The increase in runoff is most pronounced in winter. Hence, the simulations demonstrate that changes in permafrost characteristics due to climate warming and associated changes in evapotranspiration provide a plausible mechanism for the observed runoff increases in Arctic watersheds. In addition, our experiments show that when lateral subsurface moisture transport is not included, as commonly done in global-scale Earth System Models, the equilibrium water balance in response to the warming or cooling is similar to the water balance in simulations where lateral subsurface transport is included. However, the transient changes in water balance components prior to reaching equilibrium differ greatly between the two. For example, for high saturated hydraulic conductivity only when lateral subsurface transport is considered, a period of decreased runoff occurs immediately after the warming. This period is characterized by a positive change in soil moisture storage caused by the soil moisture deficit developed during prior cooling.

Debolskiy, Matvey V. (ORCID:0000000296343627)↗

Calibration of Distributed Temperature Sensors Using Commercially Available SMF-28 Optical Fiber From 22 °C to 1000 °C

Optical frequency domain reflectometry (OFDR) is a family of optical techniques which can be used to produce distributed temperature measurements from the spectral shift of an interference pattern based on the Rayleigh backscatter signature of an optical fiber. Adaptive signal processing techniques have recently been used with OFDR to record meaningful spectral shift data from commercially available SMF-28 optical fibers heated beyond 950 °C. Furthermore, a correlation between the measured spectral shift and temperature has not yet been developed at these high temperatures. To extend the measurable temperature range of OFDR in SMF-28, this work describes the development of such a correlation from room temperature (22 °C) to 1000 °C. The relationship between spectral shift and temperature change over this range was found to be best characterized by the fourth-order polynomial ΔT=(-4.241 * 10 -11 )S 4 + (-2.017 * 10 -7 )S 3 + (-3.677 * 10 -4 )S 2 + (-0.8057)S, where ΔT represents the temperature difference compared to the reference temperature, and S represents the spectral shift measured by the fibers. The calibration developed in this work assumes that the fiber has been fully annealed by heating the fiber to 1000 °C for a few hours. This paper is the first to demonstrate the calibration and use of SMF-28 distributed optical fiber sensors up to 1000 °C, enabled using adaptive OFDR-based signal processing.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The path to 1.5 °C requires ratcheting of climate pledges

Using model simulations of high-ambition emissions pathways, we show that ratcheting—or increasing—climate ambition through 2030 will be crucial to limiting global peak temperature changes this century. Although updated pledges offered in advance of the Glasgow climate conference in 2021 meaningfully strengthened global ambition in 2030 compared to the 2015 Paris pledges, here, our study underscores the importance of countries ratcheting their 2030 pledges further to reduce the magnitude of temperature overshoot and consequently reduce the risks of irreversible and adverse consequences to natural and human systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global Warming Estimation From Microwave Sounding Unit

Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) Ch 2 data sets, collected from sequential, polar-orbiting, Sun-synchronous National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration operational satellites, contain systematic calibration errors that are coupled to the diurnal temperature cycle over the globe. Since these coupled errors in MSU data differ between successive satellites, it is necessary to make compensatory adjustments to these multisatellite data sets in order to determine long-term global temperature change. With the aid of the observations during overlapping periods of successive satellites, we can determine such adjustments and use them to account for the coupled errors in the long-term time series of MSU Ch 2 global temperature. In turn, these adjusted MSU Ch 2 data sets can be used to yield global temperature trend. In a pioneering study, Spencer and Christy (SC) (1990) developed a procedure to derive the global temperature trend from MSU Ch 2 data. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedure, the magnitude of the coupled errors is not determined explicitly. Furthermore, based on some assumptions, these coupled errors are eliminated in three separate steps. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedures. Based on our analysis, we find there is a global warming of 0.23+/-0.12 K between 1980 and 1991. Also, in this study, the time series of global temperature anomalies constructed by removing the global mean annual temperature cycle compares favorably with a similar time series obtained from conventional observations of temperature.

Prabhakara, C.↗

Design and Analysis of Shape Memory Spring Tires for Martian and Lunar Rover Vehicles

Shape memory alloys (SMAs) have played an important role in various innovative engineering and medical applications, such as aerospace actuators, vibration damping devices, and coronary stents. In applications, shape memory alloys are commonly utilized in two fundamentally different ways: (i) making use of the superelasticity/ pseudoelasticity (SE/PE) phenomena, as in applications in biomedical engineering, and (ii) taking advantages of the shape memory effect (SME), as is used for actuators. Their ability to act in such vastly different capacities is mainly due to their unique capability to recover large amounts of deformation produced by either applied stresses or temperature changes. One recent emerging application in use of SMAs has been in the area of non-pneumatic tire designs for Martian or Lunar roving vehicles. These vehicles require tires that are capable of traversing rugged terrain while withstanding extreme temperatures and atmospheric conditions. Inspired by the flexible wire mesh tires used on three Lunar Roving Vehicle (LRV) missions to the Moon on Apollo 15, 16, and 17, a new compliant tire technology was developed by the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) and Goodyear Tire & Rubber, known as the Spring Tire. The Spring Tire consists of several hundred coiled springs woven into a flexible mesh and formed into the shape of a tire. Like the LRV wire mesh tires, the original Spring Tires were made from spring steel and were prone to permanent deformation when undergoing high localized loads. Later, a new iteration of this technology was invented, known as the ‘Superelastic Tire’. This new technology incorporated the use of superelastic SMA springs, which could effectively undergo approximately 30 times more reversible deformation than the steel spring. It also provided even greater durability and allowed for more flexibility in design, such as the use of other structural forms to reduce mass or increase load carrying capacity. Because of the unique nature of both the SMA material and the complex interactions between the springs, designing Spring Tires for a specific application requires extensive effort. Historically, design decisions have relied on full-scale empirical testing; however, this is very expensive and time consuming, especially when multiple iterations are needed. Therefore, developing a large-scale, robust, and predictive numerical model entailing complex spring interactions and the shape memory material behavior within a tire construct is the first essential step towards a successful design program. The current work focuses on implementation of the user-defined Shape Memory Alloy (SMA) model, otherwise known as SMA-GVIPs, in the Finite Element analysis (FEA) program ABAQUS for large-scale simulations of the GRC-developed Spring Tires made of SMA. The novelty of this work lies in the thorough, detail-oriented, and computationally efficient finite element analysis of full-scale SMA tires. A well-thought material characterization plan followed by model validation and a systemic sensitivity study on SMA tires has never been reported in the previous literature. The main objective of this study is to help the team improve and optimize the structural design of the SMA tires through in-depth numerical analysis and sensitivity studies. Various design variables (wire diameter, coil diameter, pitch, bead angle, and number of springs) were varied to study their influence on the global load-displacement response of the tire construct. A detailed investigation of the three-dimensional stress states was also carried out to enhance our understanding of the local changes as the tire goes through global deformation. It was concluded that a robust numerical model with a good predictive capability, together with a thoughtfully crafted sensitivity study can result in improved design iterations required to reach a desired tire performance while, significantly reducing manufacturing, labor and testing expenses. A summary of the Finite Element (FE) model construction will be presented together with a description of the user-defined SMA model, characterization process, experimental results, model validation, and numerical sensitivity study results.

shape memory alloys↗

An Algorithm to Derive Temperature and Humidity Profile Changes Using Spatially and Temporally Averaged Spectral Radiance Differences

A linear inversion algorithm to derive changes of surface skin temperature and atmospheric temperature and specific humidity vertical profiles using spatially and temporally averaged spectral radiance differences is developed. The algorithm uses spectral radiative kernels, which is the top-of-atmosphere spectral radiance change caused by perturbations of skin temperature and air temperature and specific humidity in the atmosphere, and is an improved version of the algorithm used in earlier studies. Two improvements are the inclusion of the residual and cloud spectral kernels in the form of eigenvectors of principal components. Three and six eigenvectors are used for, respectively, the residual and cloud spectral kernels. An underlying assumption is that the spectral shape of the principal components is constant and their magnitude varies temporally and spatially. The algorithm is tested using synthetic spectral radiances with the spectral range of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder averaged over 16 days and over a 10° × 10° grid box. Changes of skin temperature, air temperature, and specific humidity vertical profiles are derived from the difference of nadir-view all-sky spectral radiances. The root-mean-square difference of retrieved and true skin temperature differences is 0.59 K. The median of absolute errors in the air temperature change is less than 0.5 K above 925 hPa. The median of absolute errors in the relative specific humidity changes is less than 10% above 825 hPa.

Fang Pan↗

Radiative Forcing and Temperature Response to Changes in Urban Albedos and Associated CO2 Offsets

The two main forcings that can counteract to some extent the positive forcings from greenhouse gases from pre-industrial times to present-day are the aerosol and related aerosol-cloud forcings, and the radiative response to changes in surface albedo. Here, we quantify the change in radiative forcing and surface temperature that may be obtained by increasing the albedos of roofs and pavements in urban areas in temperate and tropical regions of the globe. Using the catchment land surface model (the land model coupled to the GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model), we quantify the response of the total outgoing (outgoing shortwave+longwave) radiation to urban albedo changes. Globally, the total outgoing radiation increased by 0.5 W/square m and temperature decreased by -0.008 K for an average 0.003 increase in albedo. For the U.S. the total outgoing total radiation increased by 2.3 W/square meter, and temperature decreased by approximately 0.03 K for an average 0.01 increase in albedo. These values are for the boreal summer (Tune-July-August). Based on these forcings, the expected emitted CO2 offset for a plausible 0.25 and 0.15 increase in albedos of roofs and pavements, respectively, for all global urban areas, was found to be approximately 57 Gt CO2 . A more meaningful evaluation of the impacts of urban albedo increases on climate and the expected CO2 offsets would require simulations which better characterizes urban surfaces and represents the full annual cycle.

Menon, Surabi↗

Evaluation of simulated soil carbon dynamics in Arctic-Boreal ecosystems

Given the magnitude of soil carbon stocks in northern ecosystems, and the vulnerability of these stocks to climate warming, land surface models must accurately represent soil carbon dynamics in these regions. We evaluate soil carbon stocks and turnover rates, and the relationship between soil carbon loss with soil temperature and moisture, from an ensemble of eleven global land surface models. We focus on the region of NASA's Arctic-Boreal vulnerability experiment (ABoVE) in North America to inform data collection and model development efforts. Models exhibit an order of magnitude difference in estimates of current total soil carbon stocks, generally under- or overestimating the size of current soil carbon stocks by greater than 50 PgC. We find that a model's soil carbon stock at steady-state in 1901 is the prime driver of its soil carbon stock a hundred years later—overwhelming the effect of environmental forcing factors like climate. The greatest divergence between modeled and observed soil carbon stocks is in regions dominated by peat and permafrost soils, suggesting that models are failing to capture the frozen soil carbon dynamics of permafrost regions. Using a set of functional benchmarks to test the simulated relationship of soil respiration to both soil temperature and moisture, we find that although models capture the observed shape of the soil moisture response of respiration, almost half of the models examined show temperature sensitivities, or Q10 values, that are half of observed. Significantly, models that perform better against observational constraints of respiration or carbon stock size do not necessarily perform well in terms of their functional response to key climatic factors like changing temperature. This suggests that models may be arriving at the right result, but for the wrong reason. The results of this work can help to bridge the gap between data and models by both pointing to the need to constrain initial carbon pool sizes, as well as highlighting the importance of incorporating functional benchmarks into ongoing, mechanistic modeling activities such as those included in ABoVE.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Theoretical studies of a molecular beam generator

We consider the problem of modeling a high temperature diatomic gas N2 flowing through a converging-diverging high expansion nozzle. The problem is modeled in two ways. The first model uses a single temperature with variable specific heats as functions of this temperature. For the second model we assume that the various degrees of freedom all have a Boltzmann population distribution which means that each degree of freedom has its own temperature and consequently each system state can be characterized by these temperatures. This suggests the formulation of a second model with a vibrational degree of freedom as having its own temperature along with a rotational-translational degree of freedom with its own temperature. Initially the vibrational degree of freedom is excited by heating the gas to a high temperature. As the high temperature gas expands through the nozzle throat there is a sudden drop in the rotational-translational temperature along with a finite relaxation time for the vibrational degree of freedom to achieve equilibrium with the rotational-translational degree of freedom. That is, the temperature change that occurs when the N2 gas passes through the nozzle throat is so great that the changes in the vibrational degree of freedom lags behind the rotational-translational energy changes. The resulting relaxation time is finite. It is in this context that the term nonequilibrium is used. That is, the term nonequilibrium denotes the fact that the energy content of the various degrees of freedom are characterized by two temperatures. We neglect any chemical reactions resulting from the high temperatures which could also add nonequilibrium effects. We develop the basic equations for the two models in various forms in order to check the derivations with other sources. The final form which is solved numerically consists of the scaled equations in a conservative dimensionless form.

Heinbockel, John H.↗

From Waste-Heat Recovery to Refrigeration: Compositional Tuning of Magnetocaloric Mn 1+ x Sb

Magnetic refrigeration, as well as waste-heat recovery, can be accomplished through the magnetocaloric effect, where temperature changes the magnetic state of a material or vice versa. Promising magnetocaloric materials display large changes in magnetic entropy (ΔS M ) upon application of a moderate magnetic field and are often associated with magnetic materials possessing some degree of magnetostructural coupling. In such compounds, the magnetic transition is coupled to some structural transition at the ordering temperature, and indicators for these are readily calculated by the magnetic deformation proxy Σ M . MnSb, with a Curie temperature T C = 577 K, has a calculated magnetic deformation of Σ M = 5.9% and is a promising candidate material for waste-heat recovery. The temperature dependence of structural, magnetic, and magnetocaloric properties of Mn 1+ x Sb, where $x$ is a tunable amount of interstitial Mn, is studied here. specifically, excess Mn is incorporated as an interstitial whose magnetic moment is antialigned with the stoichiometric Mn, and the excess Mn has the effect of lowering T C , such that the Curie temperature can be tuned from 577 K to nearly room temperature at 318 K for $x$ = 0.2. For $x$ = 0.0, 0.1, and 0.2, values of ΔS M under a maximum magnetic field $H$ = 5 T are found to be 3.65, 3.00, and 2.83 J K -1 kg -1 , respectively. While the maximum ΔS M decreases with $x$, the high refrigerant capacity a more holistic measure of performance-is retained in this highly tunable system.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The thermal structure and energy balance of the Uranian upper atmosphere

Uranus upper atmosphere occultation observations are reported for August 15-16, 1980, and April 26, 1981. Mean atmospheric light curves of 154 + or - 15 K and 132 + or - 15 K, respectively, are derived from the light curves. A comparison of all available Uranus occultation data since March 1977 suggests a significant mean atmospheric temperature change, with a typical 15 K/year variation. It is suggested that molecular and eddy diffusion, together with atmospheric dynamics, are potentially as important as radiation in the upper atmosphere heat balance of Uranus. The close agreement of occultation immersion and emersion temperatures further suggests that effective meridional transport occurs on Uranus.

French, R. G.↗

Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

Climate impacts↗