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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Land-Based Wind Market Report: 2022 Edition

The U.S. Department of Energy's 2022 edition of its Land-Based Wind Market Report provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. wind power market, with a focus on 2021. You can find a report, data file and presentation on the Files tab, below. Additionally, several data visualizations are available on the Visualizations tab. Despite ongoing supply chain challenges, wind energy in 2021 continued to see strong growth, technology improvements, and low prices in the U.S. Key highlights include: Wind comprises a growing share of electricity supply: U.S. wind power capacity grew at a strong pace in 2021, with the 13.4 GW of new additions representing a $\$20$ billion investment and 32% of all newly added U.S. generation capacity. Wind energy output rose to account for more than 9% of the entire nation’s electricity supply. At least 247 GW of wind are seeking transmission interconnection; 77 GW of this capacity are offshore wind and 19 GW are hybrid plants that pair wind with storage or solar PV. Wind project performance has increased over the decades: The average capacity factor among recently built projects was nearly 40%, considerably higher than projects built earlier. The highest capacity factors are seen in the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country. Turbines continue to get larger: Improved plant performance has been driven by larger turbines mounted on taller towers and featuring longer blades. In 2011, no turbines employed blades that were 115 meters in diameter or larger, but in 2021, 89% of newly installed turbines featured such rotors. Proposed projects indicate that total turbine height will continue to rise. Low wind turbine pricing has pushed down installed project costs over the last decade: Wind turbine prices averaged $\$800$–$\$950$/kW in 2021, a 5% to 10% increase from the year prior but substantially lower than in 2010. The average installed cost of wind projects in 2021 was $\$1,500$/kW, down more than 40% since the peak in 2010, though relatively stable in recent years. The lowest costs were found in Texas and the (non-ISO) West. Wind energy prices are on the rise, but generally remain low, around $\$20$/MWh in the interior of the country with higher prices in the West and East. After topping out above $\$75$/MWh for power purchase agreements (PPAs) executed in 2009, the national average price of wind PPAs has dropped—though supply-chain pressures have resulted in increased prices in recent years. In the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country, recent pricing is around $\$20$/MWh. In the West and East, prices tend to average above $\$30$/MWh. These prices, which are possible in part due to federal tax support, fall below the projected future fuel costs of gas-fired generation. Wind PPA prices are often attractive compared to wind’s grid-system market value: The value of wind in wholesale power markets is affected by the location of wind plants, their hourly output profiles, and how those characteristics correlate with real-time electricity prices and capacity markets. The market value of wind increased in 2021, averaging $\$16$/MWh in MISO, $\$19$/MWh in SPP, $\$23$/MWh in NYISO, $\$31$/MWh in ERCOT, $\$33$/MWh in PJM, $\$44$/MWh in ISO-NE, and $\$48$/MWh in CAISO. The average levelized cost of wind energy was $\$32$/MWh for plants built in 2021: Levelized costs, which exclude the impacts of federal tax incentives, vary across time and geography. The national average stood at $\$32$/MWh in 2021—down substantially historically, though relatively stable in recent years. Levelized costs were lowest in ERCOT, SPP, and the (non-ISO) West. The health and climate benefits of wind in 2021 were larger than its grid-system value, and the combination of all three far exceeds the current levelized cost of wind: Wind generation reduces power-sector emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide. These reductions, in turn, provide public health and climate benefits that vary regionally, but together are economically valued at an average of over $\$90$/MWh-wind for plants built in 2021.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Systematic, Polynomial-Cost Approach to Exact Correlation Energies (Final Technical Report)

The full configuration interaction (FCI) wave function provides the exact solution to the Schrödinger equation in a given basis set. While FCI is intractable due to exponential computational costs, the many-body expansion (or the method of increments) can reduce scaling to a low-order polynomial with system size. This project entailed advances in the incremental FCI (iFCI) approach, designed to allow iFCI to reach larger system sizes and maintain its intrinsic high accuracy. This document describes advances in solvers for iFCI, strategies to treat multiple charge and spin states, and virtual state management methods to reduce memory requirements. Overall, this project allows iFCI to correlate (for the first time) 142 valence electrons in 444 orbitals in a realistic model of a transition metal complex.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Updated ASME design correlations and qualification plan for powder bed fusion 316H stainless steel

This report provides an update on the Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program effort to qualify Laser-Powder Bed Fusion (L-PBF) 316H stainless steel for use with the ASME Boiler & Pressure Vessel Code Section III, Division 5 rules. The report summarizes progress in testing and characterizing L-PBF material at elevated temperatures by providing preliminary design data for L-PBF 316H and by comparing the elevated temperature performance of the L-PBF material to wrought and conventional fusion welded 316H. The report then updates the initial AMMT qualification plan for L-PBF 316H, originally developed in 2023, to update the accelerated qualification strategy adopted in that plan to account for the new high temperature test data. The report also explores a few methods for further accelerating the qualification process using machine learning techniques to supplement the more conventional, empirical analysis methods typically used by ASME to correlate and extrapolate time-dependent material test data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

New correlated numerical methods for attosecond molecular single and double ionization

This project resulted in the development of ASTRA, a new molecular ionization code capable of describing single and double ionization processes in polyatomic molecules with correlated electrons and time-dependent fields. Key achievements include: (i) the development of the PRISM hybrid-integral library enabling core-ionization and high-angular-momentum convergence; (ii) implementation of time-dependent Schrödinger equation solvers for pump–probe spectroscopies; (iii) validation against experimental and theoretical benchmarks for atoms and molecules; and (iv) extension to two-photon double ionization using the finite-pulse virtual-sequential model. These developments establish ASTRA as a versatile platform for attosecond molecular dynamics.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

First operation of superconducting quantum bits as particle detectors

Transmon qubits are among the leading technologies for the development of future quantum computers. However these superconducting devices are sensitive to ionizing radiation, which reduces their coherence time and leads to correlated errors. This study represents the first quantitative estimation of cosmic rays and ambient radiation impact on transmon qubits. In the shielded underground facility at the Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso (LNGS), errors induced by the interaction of a radioactive source were reconstructed with an efficiency of about 10%. In contrast, in the unshielded above-ground facility at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (FNAL), cosmic and ambient radiation impacts were detected with an efficiency ranging from 10% to 20% by modifying the acquisition protocol. Lastly, the simultaneous readout of three transmons in coincidence was demonstrated, achieving an event reconstruction efficiency of 90% when the devices were illuminated with an LED.

Bonomo, Camilla [Rome U.; INFN, Rome]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing the γ-Ray Emission from FR0 Radio Galaxies

Abstract FR0 galaxies constitute the most abundant jet population in the local Universe. With their compact jet structure, they are broadband photon emitters and have been proposed as multimessenger sources. Recently, these sources have been detected for the first time inγrays. Using a revised FR0 catalog, we confirm that the FR0 population as a whole areγ-ray emitters, and we also identify two significant sources. For the first time, we find a correlation between the 5 GHz core radio luminosity andγ-ray luminosity in the 1–800 GeV band, having a 4.8σstatistical significance. This is clear evidence that the jet emission mechanism is similar in nature for FR0s and the well-studied canonical FR (FRI and FRII) radio galaxies. Furthermore, we perform broadband spectral energy distribution modeling for the significantly detected sources as well as the subthreshold source population using a one-zone synchrotron self-Compton model. Within the maximum jet power budget, our modeling shows that the detectedγrays from the jet can be explained as inverse Compton photons. To explain the multiwavelength observations for these galaxies, the modeling results stipulate a low bulk Lorentz factor and a jet composition far from equipartition, with the particle energy density dominating over the magnetic field energy density.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Crucible Melter Simulation in Nek5000

Nuclear tank waste at the Hanford site is slated for vitrification in large scale refractory-lined melters to transform it into a stable borosilicate waste form suitable for long-term storage or disposal. Molten glass corrodes the refractory lining over time at a rate correlated to the velocity of molten glass against the refractory-lined wall. To properly design a melter and plan for maintenance, it is necessary to accurately model the glass flow and find the correlation between flow velocity and corrosion rate. This modeling was started in STAR-CCM+ CFD software and is being continued in Nek5000 for its fast-running and quick turnaround code. This poster explains the basic process of reconstructing the geometry, fluid properties, and heating of test melters in Nek5000. The geometry is imported from a mesh file and boundary conditions assigned based on surface IDs. The fluid properties are set in the .par and .usr case files. The heating of the actual crucibles in joule heating with electrodes but simulated in Nek5000 with a volumetric heat source term. This volumetric heat source is fit to the actual heating profile with piecewise polynomials and exponentials. Basic results and verification methods are explained in the poster, as well as further work that must be done to complete modeling.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Occlusion-Perturbed Deep Learning for Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Sky Images: Preprint

Solar forecasting is shifting to the probabilistic paradigm due to the inherent uncertainty within the solar resource. Input uncertainty quantification is one of the widely used and best-performing ways to model solar uncertainty. However, compared to other sources of inputs, such as numerical weather prediction models, pure sky image-based probabilistic solar forecasting lags behind. In this research, an occlusion-perturbed convolutional neural network, named the PSolarNet, is developed. The PSolarNet provides very short-term deterministic forecasts, forecast scenarios, and probabilistic forecasts of the global horizontal irradiance from sky image sequences. Case studies based on 6 years of open-source data show that the developed PSolarNet is able to generate accurate 10-minute ahead deterministic forecasts with a 5.62% normalized root mean square error, realistic and diverse forecast scenarios with a 0.966 average correlation with the actual time series, and reliable and sharp probabilistic forecasts with a 2.77% normalized continuous ranked probability score.

Bayesian model averaging↗
DOE OSTI2025

The missing correlation between the potential rate impacts of rooftop solar and the timing of state net metering policy revisions

Residential solar photovoltaic (PV) output in most states is credited at the retail electricity rate, a policy commonly known as net metering. Twelve states have replaced net metering with alternative rate structures that reduce PV adopter bill savings. Proponents of these revisions argue that net metering increases the electricity rates of customers without PV. Here, we analyze the degree to which the timelines of net metering revisions have correlated with potential electricity rate impacts. We estimate that potential rate impacts at the end of 2023 were less than 1% of typical customer bills in 37 of 44 states that have offered net metering. There are no statistically significant differences in average or median estimated rate impacts between states that have and have not revised net metering. Nine of the states that had revised net metering did so when estimated impacts were less than 1% of typical customer bills. Many states have retained net metering into higher PV deployment levels with increased risk of potential rate impacts. Only two states—California and Hawaii—retained net metering beyond estimated rate impacts of 5%, and both have revised net metering. These findings do not suggest a clear, consistent link between net metering revision timelines and potential rate impacts. The timing and nature of net metering revisions are ultimately policy decisions based on state-level priorities and considerations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Subdiffraction Imaging of Carrier Dynamics in Halide Perovskite Semiconductors: Effects of Passivation, Morphology, and Ion Motion

In this article, we spatially resolve photocarrier dynamics in halide perovskites using time-resolved electrostatic force microscopy (trEFM) to map surface potential equilibration during photoexcitation. We present a unified interpretation of trEFM, which measures the evolution of the surface potential in response to photoexcitation. We show that trEFM measurements correlate with surface recombination velocity and carrier lifetimes, validated with time-resolved photoluminescence imaging. We further validate the interpretation of trEFM through wavelength- and intensity-dependent measurements and with drift-diffusion simulations. We compare several passivation agents, including (3-aminopropyl)trimethoxysilane (APTMS), [3-(2-aminoethylamino)propyl]trimethoxysilane (AEAPTMS), and phenethylammonium iodide (PEAI). The results reveal heterogeneity in surface potential equilibration times that correlates with perovskite film morphology and nanoscale variations in recombination dynamics following surface passivation. Not only do our results highlight the potential for further improvement of passivation strategies, but also the necessity of high spatial and temporal resolution methods, like trEFM, to evaluate next-generation semiconductors.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Photoinduced enhancement of superconductivity in the plaquette Hubbard model

Real-time dynamics techniques have proven increasingly useful in theoretically and experimentally understanding strongly correlated systems. By employing unbiased time-resolved exact diagonalization, we study pump dynamics in the two-dimensional plaquette Hubbard model, where distinct hopping integrals t h and t' h are present within and between plaquettes. In the intermediate coupling regime, a significant enhancement of d-wave superconductivity is observed and compared with that obtained by simply examining expectation values with the eigenstates of the Hamiltonian. Furthermore, our work provides a further understanding of superconductivity in the Hubbard model, extends the description of the pairing amplitude to the frequency-anisotropy plane, and offers a promising approach for experimentally engineering emergent out-of-equilibrium states.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

Probing primordial power spectrum and non-Gaussianities with fast radio bursts

We use the precision measurements of the arrivaltime differences of the same fast radio burst (FRB) source along multiple sightlines to measure the primordial power spectrum and Non-Gaussianities. The anticipated experiment requires a sightline separation of 100 AU, achieved by sending three or more radio telescopes to the outer solar system.The Shapiro time delays, measured relatively between different telescopes, are sensitive to the gradient field of the gravitational potential between different sightlines. Since the arrival time difference is independent of when the transient signal is emitted from the source, every measurement of the detected FRB source can be correlated. With enough FRB sources discovered, we can map the gravitational potential across the sky. We further calculate the two-point and three-point correlation function of the arrival time difference between telescopes for different FRB sources in the sky. If 10$^{4}$ FRBs were to be detected, our results suggest that this technique can test the inflationary scale-invariant power spectrum down to ∼ 10$^{3}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ and primordial Non-Gaussianities at a level of f$_{NL}$ ∼ 1.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Faster network disruption from layered oscillatory dynamics

Nonlinear complex network-coupled systems typically have multiple stable equilibrium states. Following perturbations or due to ambient noise, the system is pushed away from its initial equilibrium, and, depending on the direction and the amplitude of the excursion, it might undergo a transition to another equilibrium. It was recently demonstrated [M. Tyloo, J. Phys. Complex. 3 03LT01 (2022)] that layered complex networks may exhibit amplified fluctuations. Here, I investigate how noise with system-specific correlations impacts the first escape time of nonlinearly coupled oscillators. Interestingly, I show that, not only the strong amplification of the fluctuations is a threat to the good functioning of the network but also the spatial and temporal correlations of the noise along the lowest-lying eigenmodes of the Laplacian matrix. Finally, I analyze first escape times on synthetic networks and compare noise originating from layered dynamics to uncorrelated noise.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

MSASGCN : Multi-Head Self-Attention Spatiotemporal Graph Convolutional Network for Traffic Flow Forecasting

Traffic flow forecasting is an essential task of an intelligent transportation system (ITS), closely related to intelligent transportation management and resource scheduling. Dynamic spatial-temporal dependencies in traffic data make traffic flow forecasting to be a challenging task. Most existing research cannot model dynamic spatial and temporal correlations to achieve well-forecasting performance. The multi-head self-attention mechanism is a valuable method to capture dynamic spatial-temporal correlations, and combining it with graph convolutional networks is a promising solution. Therefore, we propose a multi-head self-attention spatiotemporal graph convolutional network (MSASGCN) model. It can effectively capture local correlations and potential global correlations of spatial structures, can handle dynamic evolution of the road network, and, in the time dimension, can effectively capture dynamic temporal correlations. Experiments on two real datasets verify the stability of our proposed model, obtaining a better prediction performance than the baseline algorithms. The correlation metrics get significantly reduced compared with traditional time series prediction methods and deep learning methods without using graph neural networks, according to MAE and RMSE results. Compared with advanced traffic flow forecasting methods, our model also has a performance improvement and a more stable prediction performance. We also discuss some problems and challenges in traffic forecasting.

Cao, Yang↗
DOE OSTI2025

Kinematic Flow and the Emergence of Time

Perhaps the most basic question we can ask about cosmological correlations is how their strength changes as we smoothly vary kinematic parameters. The answer is encoded in differential equations that govern this evolution in kinematic space. In this Letter, we introduce a new perspective on these differential equations. We show that, in the simplified setting of conformally coupled scalars in power-law Friedmann-Robertson-Walker spacetimes, the equations for arbitrary tree-level processes can be obtained from a small number of simple combinatorial rules. While this “kinematic flow” is defined purely in terms of boundary data, it reflects the physics of bulk time evolution. The unexpected regularity of the equations suggests the existence of an autonomously defined mathematical structure from which cosmological correlations and the time evolution of the associated spacetime emerge.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Influence of geometry on columnar to equiaxed transition during electron beam powder bed fusion of IN718

Correlation between spot-melt scan parameters (linear spot-density aka areal energy density), build geometry, and solidification microstructure evolution (columnar vs equiaxed) in a powder bed fusion technology is investigated. It is shown that to maintain the equiaxed solidification microstructure evolution in electron beam powder bed additive manufacturing (AM), the areal energy density per layer needs to be scaled with respect to the 2D cross-sectional area of the layer being melted. Samples with two different cross-sectional areas (40 × 40 mm and 20 × 20 mm) have been fabricated with varying areal energy densities. For a given square cross-section (20 × 20 mm), increasing the areal energy density (4.8 MJ/sq.m to 14.7 MJ/sq.m) transitioned the solidification microstructure from columnar to equiaxed. The observed microstructure data (Electron Back Scattered Diffraction - EBSD) is quantified by calculating the principal component (PC) score using a spatial statistics methodology. The sample with equiaxed grains is found to have a low PC score while the sample with columnar grain had a high PC score. A semi-analytical model is used to simulate the heat transfer and the local solidification conditions as a function of processing parameters (linear spot-density). The result from the heat transfer model is correlated with previously quantified microstructure data. Space-Time analysis of the melt pattern is done and correlated with the observed microstructure. In addition, from the findings, appropriate parameters have been used to additively manufacture a turbine blade with site-specific or hybrid solidification microstructure (traditional fabrication possible via a patented method of localized cold working and heat treatment).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Symphony: Cosmological Zoom-in Simulation Suites over Four Decades of Host Halo Mass

Abstract We present Symphony, a compilation of 262 cosmological, cold-dark-matter-only zoom-in simulations spanning four decades of host halo mass, from 10 11 –10 15 M ⊙ . This compilation includes three existing simulation suites at the cluster and Milky Way–mass scales, and two new suites: 39 Large Magellanic Cloud-mass (10 11 M ⊙ ) and 49 strong-lens-analog (10 13 M ⊙ ) group-mass hosts. Across the entire host halo mass range, the highest-resolution regions in these simulations are resolved with a dark matter particle mass of ≈3 × 10 −7 times the host virial mass and a Plummer-equivalent gravitational softening length of ≈9 × 10 −4 times the host virial radius, on average. We measure correlations between subhalo abundance and host concentration, formation time, and maximum subhalo mass, all of which peak at the Milky Way host halo mass scale. Subhalo abundances are ≈50% higher in clusters than in lower-mass hosts at fixed sub-to-host halo mass ratios. Subhalo radial distributions are approximately self-similar as a function of host mass and are less concentrated than hosts’ underlying dark matter distributions. We compare our results to the semianalytic model Galacticus , which predicts subhalo mass functions with a higher normalization at the low-mass end and radial distributions that are slightly more concentrated than Symphony. We use UniverseMachine to model halo and subhalo star formation histories in Symphony, and we demonstrate that these predictions resolve the formation histories of the halos that host nearly all currently observable satellite galaxies in the universe. To promote open use of Symphony, data products are publicly available at http://web.stanford.edu/group/gfc/symphony .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of soil radon ( 222 Rn) and thoron ( 220 Rn) time series

In this paper, we present results of Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) of soil Radon ( 222 Rn) and Thoron ( 220 Rn) time series to examine the scaling and multifractal features. Data consists of 15,692 measurements taken each over forty-minute interval. RTM 1688-2, 222 Rn/ 220 Rn electronic device has been used for measurement purposes. Seasonal periodicities have been removed from the data and MF-DFA was employed on de-seasonalized data. Original 222 Rn and 220 Rn time series have been converted into surrogate and shuffled time series. MFDFA has also been applied to the surrogate and shuffled series to examine the multifractality nature. Results of the study show that $^{222}_{Orig}Rn$, $^{222}_{Surr}Rn$ and $^{220}_{Orig}Rn$, $^{220}_{Surr}Rn$ time series are longrange positively correlated and an increase or decrease in either of radionuclide concentrations will be followed by another increase or decrease of concentrations in future measurements. The $^{220}_{Shuff}Rn$ time series has an independent or short-range dependent structure called white noise and the shuffled time series exhibit a very weak multifractality.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗