Future Wind Energy Resources and Cost Uncertainties Across the United States
This dataset contains results estimating projections of change of annual capacity factors and levelized cost of energy for several turbine technologies in the 2024 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB). Projections of change are based on downscaled earth system model (ESM) data from Sup3rCC. There has been evidence of reductions in average wind speeds over land in North America since the 1980s, and several models project that average wind speeds will continue to decrease. Concurrently, the cost of wind energy systems in the United States has been decreasing since around 2010, a trend also projected to continue. There is considerable uncertainty in these future projections, with quantitative estimates of future wind resource and system costs varying widely. To study this, we run land-based wind energy models with a range of possible future system costs, turbine designs, and meteorological inputs from multiple downscaled earth system models over the contiguous United States to estimate critical system performance metrics such as annual energy production (AEP) and levelized cost of energy. Where multiple earth system models agree, changes in mean AEP from the time period 2000-2019 to 2040-2059 can be as high as +10% in South Texas or as low as -20% in Iowa. Several additional states in the Midwest that currently have considerable wind generation capacity show the possibility of substantial decreases in AEP by mid-century. Larger turbines and moderate reductions in system costs can offset even the largest projected decreases in wind resource, but much uncertainty remains in the extent to which wind resources will actually change into the future and to what extent wind energy systems can drive down future costs. An analysis of variance shows, in several states in the Midwest, the uncertainty in future wind resource can be almost as important for future changes in the cost of wind energy as the uncertainty in future system costs.