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DOE OSTI2021

SMC 2021 : Analyzing Resource Utilization and User Behavior on Titan Supercomputer

Resource utilization statistics of submitted jobs on a supercomputer can help us understand how users from various scientific domains use HPC platforms and better design a job scheduler. We explore to generate insight regarding workload distribution and usage pattern domains from job scheduler trace, GPU failure information, and project-specific information collected from Titan supercomputer. Furthermore, we want to know how the scheduler performance varies over time and how the users' scheduling behavior changes following a system failure. These observations have the potential to provide valuable insight, which is helpful to prepare for system failures. These practices will help us develop and apply novel machine learning algorithms in understanding system behavior, requirement, and better scheduling of HPC systems. There are two datasets, RUR and GPU. RUR: This dataset is the job scheduler traces collected from the Titan supercomputerfrom 01/01/2015 to 07/31/2019 (2015.csv - 2019.csv). These were collected usingResource Utilization Report (RUR), a Cray-developed resource-usage data collectionand reporting system. It contains the usage information of its critical resources (CPU,Memory, GPU, and I/O) of each running job on Titan during that period [2]. ProjectAreas: Every job is associated with a project ID. TheProjectAreas.csvdatasetprovides a mapping of the project ID to its domain science. GPU: There have been some hardware-related issues in the GPUs in Titan that caused some GPUs to fail, sometimes irrecoverably during some job runs. This dataset provides information regarding these failures during the execution of the submitted jobs. GPUs on Titan are uniquely identified by a serial number (SN), and they are installed in a location. A GPU can be installed in a location, then removed from that location following a failure, and then re-installed in a different location after fixing the problem. If the failure can't be recovered, the GPU might be removed entirely from Titan. There are two prominent types of failures that resulted in the removal of GPUs from Titan: Double Bit Error (DBE) and Out of the Bus (OTB). The dataset (gc_full.csv) has the following fields: 1. SN : Serial number of a GPU 2. location : The location where it is installed 3. insert : The time when it was inserted into that location 4. remove : The time when it was removed from that location 5. duration : Amount of time the GPU spent in this location 6. out : If the device was taken out entirely w/o a re-installment into a new location. 7. event : If the GPU was taken out entirely, the reason for its removal. To learn more about this dataset, please refer to the git repositoryhttps://github.com/olcf/TitanGPULifeand the related publication [1]. References [1] George Ostrouchov, Don Maxwell, Rizwan A Ashraf, Christian Engelmann, MallikarjunShankar, and James H Rogers. Gpu lifetimes on titan supercomputer: Survival analysisand reliability. InSC20: International Conference for High Performance Computing,Networking, Storage and Analysis, pages 1-14. IEEE, 2020. [2] Feiyi Wang, Sarp Oral, Satyabrata Sen, and Neena Imam. Learning from five-yearresource-utilization data of titan system. In2019 IEEE International Conference onCluster Computing (CLUSTER), pages 1-6. IEEE, 2019.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

SMC 2021 Data Challenge: Analyzing Resource Utilization and User Behavior on Titan Supercomputer

Resource utilization statistics of submitted jobs on a supercomputer can help us understand how users from various scientific domains use HPC platforms and better design a job scheduler. We explore to generate insight regarding workload distribution and usage pattern domains from job scheduler trace, GPU failure information, and project-specific information collected from Titan supercomputer. Furthermore, we want to know how the scheduler performance varies over time and how the users' scheduling behavior changes following a system failure. These observations have the potential to provide valuable insight, which is helpful to prepare for system failures. These practices will help us develop and apply novel machine learning algorithms in understanding system behavior, requirement, and better scheduling of HPC systems. There are two datasets, RUR and GPU: RUR dataset is the job scheduler traces collected from the Titan supercomputer from 01/01/2015 to 07/31/2019 (2015.csv - 2019.csv). These were collected using resource Utilization Report (RUR), a Cray-developed resource-usage data collection and reporting system. It contains the usage information of its critical resources (CPU, Memory, GPU, and I/O) of each running job on Titan during that period (https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/8891001). It includes ProjectAreas as additional information, every job is associated with a project ID. TheProjectAreas.csv dataset provides a mapping of the project ID to its domain science. GPU dataset has information regarding GPU failure on Titan. There have been some hardware-related issues in the GPUs in Titan that caused some GPUs to fail, sometimes irrecoverably during some job runs. This dataset provides information regarding these failures during the execution of the submitted jobs. GPUs on Titan are uniquely identified by a serial number (SN), and they are installed in a location. A GPU can be installed in a location, then removed from that location following a failure, and then re-installed in a different location after fixing the problem. If the failure can't be recovered, the GPU might be removed entirely from Titan. There are two prominent types of failures that resulted in the removal of GPUs from Titan: Double Bit Error (DBE) and Out of the Bus (OTB). The dataset (gc_full.csv) has seven attributes, we provided a short description of these attributes in the ReadMe file. To learn more about this dataset, please refer to the git repository https://github.com/olcf/TitanGPULife and the related publication (https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/9355319).

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

ML-based Micro-CT SOFC Microstructure Models (from Kent 2026 Microstructural Augmentation paper)

Overview -------------------------- This repository contains datasets from the manuscript **"Enhanced Generalizability to Deep-Learning Quantification of 3D Microstructural Characteristics through Microstructurally Aware Augmentation of Scarce Data"** (*William F. Kent, Rochan Bajpai, Rachel C. Kurchin, William K. Epting, Harry W. Abernathy, Paul A. Salvador. Submitted 2026*). The methods are also described in the dissertation **Data Intensive Analysis of Solid Oxide Cell Microstructures** (*Doctoral dissertation, Carnegie Mellon University, 2025*). The datasets here are trained convolutional neural network (CNN) models for predicting key microstructural properties of solid oxide cell (SOC) electrodes from low-res, 2-channel 3D images, as well as some helpful code. The parameters for input images are provided in the paper. Sample data is provided in the file `Combined_anode_aug_dual_1k_examples` - that particular data was used to train `anode_all_aug.pth` and will work most accurately with that model. Please familiarize yourself with all caveats on accuracy and applicability, as detailed in the associated paper. Usage -------------------------- The basic usage is as follows, assuming `model_fn` is the path to the .pth file, and `X` is 2-channel input image(s) of the proper dimensions (either one image of shape `[2,12,24,24]`, or a batch of N input images of shape `[N,2,12,24,24]`): from CNN_inferencer import load_model_for_inference model = load_model_for_inference(model_fn) y_predicted = model(X) The model object automatically handles input scaling and output de-scaling based on the way the models were trained - in other words, pass in a 2-channel micro-CT image, and it will output microstructural property values in real units. ## Other model object attributes Note that model has useful attributes other than its forward pass model(X). * `model.output_descaler` - returns the output descaler object. Model does the de-scaling when generating inferences, but you may want to re-use this de-scaler on other values to e.g. compare predictions to ground truth from already-scaled training data. * `model.prop_names` - Gives the property names of the predicted y values, in order. Only exists if there's an output scaler as part of the model object, which there will be in the models provided here. ## Usage with sample data Here is a short script to use with the included sample data. from CNN_inferencer import display_predictions, load_model_for_inference, calculate_mape, parity_plot import h5py import numpy as np model_fn = 'anode_all_aug.pth' data_fn = 'Combined_anode_aug_dual_1k_examples.h5' N_samples = 200 figure_outdir = '.' model = load_model_for_inference(model_fn) with h5py.File(data_fn,'r') as f: XX = f['X'] #These are the 2-channel 3D images yy = f['y'] #These are the ground-truth microstructural properties, but they have been scaled for training - need to de-scale below N = XX.shape[0] #How many images total in the input data file #Run inferences on N_samples random samples from XX. #Run in a batch, much more efficient than one at a time. ii = np.random.choice(N,N_samples,replace=False) ii.sort() y_pred = model(XX[ii]) #Get the original/true (but normalized/scaled) values from the training dataset... #Because they were normalized, they are not in real units yet. So let's also de-scale them using model.output_scaler. y_true = model.output_scaler.transform(yy[ii]) #Let's display actual values for just 5 random ones for i in np.random.choice(N_samples,5,replace=False): display_predictions(y_true[i], y_pred[i], model.prop_names) #Make parity plots for each property (ground truth vs predicted values) #Also label each plot with the mean abs. percent error (MAPE) of the predicted values for i,key in enumerate(model.prop_names): mape = calculate_mape(y_true[:,i], y_pred[:,i]) parity_plot(y_true[:,i], y_pred[:,i], figure_outdir, key, extra_title=f' ({mape:.2f}% MAPE)')

3D microstructure↗

DOE OSTI2014

TEP Power Partners Project [Tucson Electric Power]

The Arizona Governor’s Office of Energy Policy, in partnership with Tucson Electric Power (TEP), Tendril, and Next Phase Energy (NPE), formed the TEP Power Partners pilot project to demonstrate how residential customers could access their energy usage data and third party applications using data obtained from an Automatic Meter Reading (AMR) network. The project applied for and was awarded a Smart Grid Data Access grant through the U.S. Department of Energy. The project participants’ goal for Phase I is to actively engage 1,700 residential customers to demonstrate sustained participation, reduction in energy usage (kWh) and cost ($), and measure related aspects of customer satisfaction. This Demonstration report presents a summary of the findings, effectiveness, and customer satisfaction with the 15-month TEP Power Partners pilot project. The objective of the program is to provide residential customers with energy consumption data from AMR metering and empower these participants to better manage their electricity use. The pilot recruitment goals included migrating 700 existing customers from the completed Power Partners Demand Response Load Control Project (DRLC), and enrolling 1,000 new participants. Upon conclusion of the project on November 19, 2013; 1,390 Home Area Networks (HANs) were registered; 797 new participants installed a HAN; Survey respondents’ are satisfied with the program and found value with a variety of specific program components; Survey respondents report feeling greater control over their energy usage and report taking energy savings actions in their homes after participating in the program; On average, 43 % of the participants returned to the web portal monthly and 15% returned weekly; and An impact evaluation was completed by Opinion Dynamics and found average participant savings for the treatment period1 to be 2.3% of their household use during this period.2 In total, the program saved 163 MWh in the treatment period of 2013.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2016

Final Report: Hydrogen Production Pathways Cost Analysis (2013 – 2016)

This report summarizes work conducted under a three year Department of Energy (DOE) funded project to Strategic Analysis, Inc. (SA) to analyze multiple hydrogen (H 2 ) production technologies and project their corresponding levelized production cost of H 2 . The analysis was conducted using the H2A Hydrogen Analysis Tool developed by the DOE and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The project was led by SA but conducted in close collaboration with the NREL and Argonne National Laboratory (ANL). In-depth techno-economic analysis (TEA) of five different H 2 production methods was conducted. These TEAs developed projections for capital costs, fuel/feedstock usage, energy usage, indirect capital costs, land usage, labor requirements, and other parameters, for each H 2 production pathway, and use the resulting cost and system parameters as inputs into the H2A discounted cash flow model to project the production cost of H 2 ($/kgH 2 ). Five technologies were analyzed as part of the project and are summarized in this report: Proton Exchange Membrane technology (PEM), High temperature solid oxide electrolysis cell technology (SOEC), Dark fermentation of biomass for H 2 production, H 2 production via Monolithic Piston-Type Reactors with rapid swing reforming and regeneration reactions, and Reformer-Electrolyzer-Purifier (REP) technology developed by Fuel Cell Energy, Inc. (FCE).

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of CHO Benchmarks on the Arria 10 FPGA using Intel FPGA SDK for OpenCL

The OpenCL standard is an open programming model for accelerating algorithms on heterogeneous computing system. OpenCL extends the C-based programming language for developing portable codes on different platforms such as CPU, Graphics processing units (GPUs), Digital Signal Processors (DSPs) and Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs). The Intel FPGA SDK for OpenCL is a suite of tools that allows developers to abstract away the complex FPGA-based development flow for a high-level software development flow. Users can focus on the design of hardware-accelerated kernel functions in OpenCL and then direct the tools to generate the low-level FPGA implementations. The approach makes the FPGA-based development more accessible to software users as the needs for hybrid computing using CPUs and FPGAs are increasing. It can also significantly reduce the hardware development time as users can evaluate different ideas with high-level language without deep FPGA domain knowledge. Benchmarking of OpenCL-based framework is an effective way for analyzing the performance of system by studying the execution of the benchmark applications. CHO is a suite of benchmark applications that provides support for OpenCL [1]. The authors presented CHO as an OpenCL port of the CHStone benchmark. Using Altera OpenCL (AOCL) compiler to synthesize the benchmark applications, they listed the resource usage and performance of each kernel that can be successfully synthesized by the compiler. In this report, we evaluate the resource usage and performance of the CHO benchmark applications using the Intel FPGA SDK for OpenCL and Nallatech 385A FPGA board that features an Arria 10 FPGA device. The focus of the report is to have a better understanding of the resource usage and performance of the kernel implementations using Arria-10 FPGA devices compared to Stratix-5 FPGA devices. In addition, we also gain knowledge about the limitations of the current compiler when it fails to synthesize a benchmark application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Predicting Baseline for Analysis of Electricity Pricing

To understand the impact of new pricing structure on residential electricity demands, we need a baseline model that captures every factor other than the new price. The standard baseline is a randomized control group, however, a good control group is hard to design. This motivates us to devlop data-driven approaches. We explored many techniques and designed a strategy, named LTAP, that could predict the hourly usage years ahead. The key challenge in this process is that the daily cycle of electricity demand peaks a few hours after the temperature reaching its peak. Existing methods rely on the lagged variables of recent past usages to enforce this daily cycle. These methods have trouble making predictions years ahead. LTAP avoids this trouble by assuming the daily usage profile is determined by temperature and other factors. In a comparison against a well-designed control group, LTAP is found to produce accurate predictions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Sierra Toolkit Manual Version 4.48

This report provides documentation for the SIERRA Toolkit (STK) modules. STK modules are intended to provide infrastructure that assists the development of computational engineering software such as finite-element analysis applications. STK includes modules for unstructured-mesh data structures, reading/writing mesh files, geometric proximity search, and various utilities. This document contains a chapter for each module, and each chapter contains overview descriptions and usage examples. Usage examples are primarily code listings which are generated from working test programs that are included in the STK code-base. A goal of this approach is to ensure that the usage examples will not fall out of date. This page intentionally left blank.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Sierra Toolkit Manual Version 4.42

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Power and Energy Utilization in Large Scale Production Physics Simulation Codes

Power is an often-cited reason for moving to advanced architectures on the path to Exascale computing. This is due to the practical concern of delivering enough power to successfully site and operate these machines, as well as concerns over energy usage while running large simulations. Since accurate power measurements can be difficult to obtain, processor thermal design power (TDP) is a possible surrogate due to its simplicity and availability. However, TDP is not indicative of typical power usage while running simulations. Using commodity and advance technology systems at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Sandia National Laboratory, we performed a series of experiments to measure power and energy usage in running simulation codes. These experiments indicate that large scale LLNL simulation codes are significantly more efficient than a simple processor TDP model might suggest.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hierarchical Model-Free Transactive Control of Building Loads to Support Grid Services

Residential buildings consume 4.4 quads of electricity annually, approximately 37% of the total electricity consumption in the United States. This represents a vast resource that can be used for demand management and other ancillary services. This project aims to develop a robust, scalable hierarchical transactional control mechanism incorporating elements of model-free control (MFC) and game theory to harness buildings to provide ancillary services to the grid. This approach is being taken to address the challenges of incorporating traditional transactional control schemes into existing buildings. The challenges include small individual building sizes requiring aggregation of many buildings, unpredictable energy usage that makes model identification difficult, and satisfying the sensitive occupant comfort constraints. In the proposed approach, by separating the control mechanism into two layers above and below the load aggregator, MFC can be used below the aggregator to modulate flexible building loads in response to pricing signals with guaranteed performance. This allows the burden of identifying an accurate model of the system to be shifted to the above-aggregator layer, where fluctuations in individual building usage have less impact on predicted building system behavior. Game theory concepts can then be used to determine pricing curves and control signals among regional aggregators. Managing this control in a game-theoretic approach will allow us to build in financial incentives that increase customer engagement. Additionally, the usage of MFC necessitates less burdensome computational and communication requirements, thus, it is easily deployable on small, embedded devices. In a broader sense, developing a strategy capable of effectively incorporating residential and small commercial buildings will allow greater throughput of existing and emerging grid services in addition to future transactive energy grid management methods. Using MFC within a hierarchical control architecture will allow the shifting of existing forecasting challenges to an aggregate level, where dynamics are slower and more predictable. This will enable a smooth interface between the grid services requests of utilities and the reliable control required by participating buildings. MFC, which supports distributed control architecture, permits a scalable solution that can be deployed to neighborhood-size systems as well as individual buildings. This project focuses on three objectives: (1) developing the mathematical framework, algorithm toolkit, and software toolset of the two-layer transactive control testbed; (2) developing a scalable solution for application over many residential and small-size commercial buildings with sparse distributed communication; and (3) field testing and implementation on hardware of the control strategies developed in the previous two objectives. The research and development activities are focused and designed to be impactful within the relevant 2025 targets timeframe. An open-source control framework for exploiting variability and dispatchability of building loads will be delivered as the outcome of the project. This capability enables greater participation of loads in electricity markets and ancillary services that are both useful for the utility and financially beneficial for building owners.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Homomorphic Encryption for Electrical Metering Aggregation: Protecting the Privacy of Building Tenants

Electrical meters are devices that measure consumer electricity usage. The data collected by these meters is necessary for utility billing and electrical grid management but can also be used to assess the environmental impact of buildings. Prior research has found that unprotected metering data could potentially be used to infer some information about the behaviors of building tenants by detecting changes in electricity usage. For example, a period of low electricity usage could suggest that the tenants are not in the building. As smart metering becomes more common, there is a growing need for data privacy protections for metering data that do not negatively impact the quality and availability of data used for energy management and billing applications. To identify potential solutions, we developed a Python-based data aggregation platform to analyze the potential efficacy of privacy-enhancing technologies for energy metering applications. This platform aggregates groups of metering sites into virtual buildings, which could potentially detach changes in electrical activity from individual tenants, making it more difficult to track the activity of a specific tenant. To further protect data during analysis, this project utilizes homomorphic encryption as part of its initial approach. Homomorphic encryption offers a means of protecting energy consumption data while permitting mathematical operations to be performed without the need to know the data contents. This allows for data to be processed into usable statistics without revealing energy consumption information. A series of homomorphic encryption libraries were evaluated to determine their applicability and limitations in the context of metering data. The use of these techniques may help to reassure consumers and encourage further adoption of smart grid infrastructure.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Sandia Toolkit Manual (V.5.21.1)

This report provides documentation for the Sandia Toolkit (STK) modules. STK modules are intended to provide infrastructure that assists the development of computational engineering software such as finite-element analysis applications. STK includes modules for unstructured-mesh data structures, reading/writing mesh files, geometric proximity search, transfers, MPMD coupling support, and various other utilities. This document contains a chapter for each module, and each chapter contains overview descriptions and usage examples. Usage examples are primarily code listings which are generated from working test programs that are included in the STK code-base. A goal of this approach is to ensure that the usage examples will not fall out of date.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sandia Toolkit Manual Version 5.15.6

This report provides documentation for the Sandia Toolkit (STK) modules. STK modules are intended to provide infrastructure that assists the development of computational engineering software such as finite-element analysis applications. STK includes modules for unstructured-mesh data structures, reading/writing mesh files, geometric proximity search, and various utilities. This document contains a chapter for each module, and each chapter contains overview descriptions and usage examples. Usage examples are primarily code listings which are generated from working test programs that are included in the STK code-base. A goal of this approach is to ensure that the usage examples will not fall out of date.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of the bioconversion potential of minimally processed seaweed by halophilic yeasts

Building an advanced economy using biomanufacturing requires robust sources of carbon for converting into chemicals and products. Macroalgae hold significant potential due to their fast growth rates, lack of freshwater usage, and lack of land usage. To be used as a common feedstock, there are two primary challenges that need to be addressed: 1) unusual chemical composition and 2) high salinity. A solution to both issues is to use a resilient, salt-loving organism with a broad consumption profile for the conversion of macroalgae. Here we evaluate the ability of the oleaginous yeast Rhodosporidium toruloides to grow in wild macroalgae-derived feedstocks and identify a conversion process that is functional for two species of Sargassum collected from the Caribbean using R. toruloides that does not require washing of the input seaweed material. Together this demonstrates a future avenue of work that minimizes freshwater usage for incorporating macroalgae as a biomanufacturing carbon source.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2026

The relationship between gene traits and transcription in soil microbial communities varies by environmental stimulus

Codon and nucleotide frequencies are known to relate to the rate of gene transcription, yet how these traits shape transcriptional profiles of soil microbial communities remains unclear. Here we test the prediction that functional genes with high codon optimization and energetically lower cost nucleotides (i.e., nucleotides requiring less adenosine triphosphate (ATP) for synthesis) have higher transcriptional expression in a soil microbial community. In laboratory incubations, we subjected an agricultural soil to two separate short-term environmental changes: labile carbon (glucose) addition or a sudden 30-min increase in temperature from 20 °C to 60 °C. Using the total genomic codon frequencies to predict preferred codon usage for each taxon, we then estimated codon optimization for each transcript. On the community level, we found a higher average level of codon optimization after the addition of glucose. Synonymous nucleotide composition in the transcript pool also shifted towards energetically cheaper nucleotides, favoring uracil (U) over adenine (A) and cytosine (C) over guanine (G). Similarly, we found that encoded amino acid usage shifted towards energetically cheaper amino acids in response to labile carbon. In contrast, in communities responding to heat shock, there were no significant differences in the averaged gene traits of expressed transcripts. We used metagenome-assembled-genomes to further examine the ability of gene traits to predict transcriptional responses within and between taxa. We found that traits of individual genes could not reliably predict the level of transcription of a gene within or between taxa—highlighting the limits of this approach. However, we did find that when traits were averaged across several related genes, codon optimization was able to predict levels of transcription in metabolic pathways associated with growth and nutrient uptake in response to glucose. Similar relationships were not observed in response to heat, or for functions associated with stress—such as genes associated with sporulation or heat shock. These results demonstrate that gene traits, such as codon usage, nucleotide selection, and amino acid selection, relate to the transcriptional expression of genes in soil microbial communities and suggests that these relationships may be dependent on both gene function and the specific type of environmental stimuli.

Biological and medical sciences↗

NASA NTRS1974

Skylab mission planning support through the use of a hybrid simulation

The manner in which a hybrid simulation was used in support of Skylab operations in the area of dynamics and control is described. Simulation results were used in the development of acceptable vehicle maneuvers and in the verification of acceptability when the maneuvers were integrated into daily flight plans. The criterion of acceptability was based on vehicle controllability and the minimization of thruster system propellant usage. A simulation of a representative daily flight plan containing three experimental maneuvers is included, along with thruster attitude control system propellant usage tables which show predicted and actual usage for each mission. The inherent characteristics of quick turnaround and flexibility afforded by the hybrid computer proved invaluable in the operations support required throughout the Skylab mission.

Hammer, M. W.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Vehicle expectations in air transportation for the year 2000

This paper is intended to provide an overview of the air transportation system for the year 2000 in terms of vehicle expectations. Emphasis is placed on civil air transportation with the time period approached from the standpoint of evolutionary changes for the near term and also with the assumption of more revolutionary changes for the far term. The view along the evolutionary path begins with a historical review of airline market growth and the impact that technologies have had on airplane designs. Projections of the life expectancy of existing, derivative, and new airplanes are examined in terms of their productivity and fuel efficiency in view of the present and projected fuel usage and availability. The factors influencing airline growth are outlined and some views on whether another new generation of subsonic airplanes are in the offing are given along with an assessment of the economic viability of an advanced commercial supersonic transport in terms of its higher speed, higher productivity, and higher fuel usage. With regard to revolutionary changes, major technology breakthroughs are assumed to occur at a specified date. As an example, the impact of a dramatic reduction in skin friction drag is examined in terms of its effect on the airplane configuration, its propulsion systems, it projected fuel usage, and the air transportation system in which it must operate.

Hearth, D. P.↗