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At least 523 records · Page 29

Weighted greedy-optimal design of computer experiments for kernel-based and Gaussian process model emulation and calibration

This article is concerned with the approximation of high-dimensional functions by kernel-based methods. Motivated by uncertainty quantification, which often necessitates the construction of approximations that are accurate with respect to a probability density function of random variables, we aim at minimizing the approximation error with respect to a weighted $L^p$-norm. We present a greedy procedure for designing computer experiments based upon a weighted modification of the pivoted Cholesky factorization. The method successively generates nested samples with the goal of minimizing error in regions of high probability. Numerical experiments validate that this new importance sampling strategy is superior to other sampling approaches, especially when used with non-product probability density functions. We also show how to use the proposed algorithm to efficiently generate surrogates for inferring unknown model parameters from data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Plasma and magnetospheric research

Several programs and variations have been developed to determine statistical means of different plasma parameters when binned in different variables. These parameters include temperature, densities and spacecraft potentials for any of the ion species, as well as ratios of these variables for any other ion species to the corresponding variable for H(+). The variables for binning include L, radial distance, and geomagnetic latitude; and separate statistics are automatically run for local morning and local evening data. These programs all run from output files from the plasma parameter thin sheath analysis program. A variant program also bins for magnetic activity, using either Kp or Dst, which requires an additional magnetic activity input file. These programs can be run either interactively or in batch mode, using file listings generated by a DIRECTORY command. In addition to printed output, these programs generate output files which can be used to plot the results. Programs to plot these averaged data are under development.

Comfort, R. H.↗

Airborne Lidar-Based Estimates of Tropical Forest Structure in Complex Terrain: Opportunities and Trade-Offs for REDD+

Background: Carbon stocks and fluxes in tropical forests remain large sources of uncertainty in the global carbon budget. Airborne lidar remote sensing is a powerful tool for estimating aboveground biomass, provided that lidar measurements penetrate dense forest vegetation to generate accurate estimates of surface topography and canopy heights. Tropical forest areas with complex topography present a challenge for lidar remote sensing. Results: We compared digital terrain models (DTM) derived from airborne lidar data from a mountainous region of the Atlantic Forest in Brazil to 35 ground control points measured with survey grade GNSS receivers. The terrain model generated from full-density (approx. 20 returns/sq m) data was highly accurate (mean signed error of 0.19 +/-0.97 m), while those derived from reduced-density datasets (8/sq m, 4/sq m, 2/sq m and 1/sq m) were increasingly less accurate. Canopy heights calculated from reduced-density lidar data declined as data density decreased due to the inability to accurately model the terrain surface. For lidar return densities below 4/sq m, the bias in height estimates translated into errors of 80-125 Mg/ha in predicted aboveground biomass. Conclusions: Given the growing emphasis on the use of airborne lidar for forest management, carbon monitoring, and conservation efforts, the results of this study highlight the importance of careful survey planning and consistent sampling for accurate quantification of aboveground biomass stocks and dynamics. Approaches that rely primarily on canopy height to estimate aboveground biomass are sensitive to DTM errors from variability in lidar sampling density.

Airborne lidar↗

Back-to-back high category atmospheric river landfalls occur more often on the west coast of the United States

Abstract The catastrophic December 2022-January 2023 nine atmospheric rivers in California underscore the urgent need to better understand such high-risk weather extremes. Here we applied a machine learning clustering tool to understand the activity of atmospheric river clusters. Reanalysis results show that clusters with high density, that is the time fraction under atmospheric river conditions within a cluster, exhibit more frequent high-category atmospheric rivers, alongside an increased likelihood for extreme precipitation and severe land surface responses. The key circulation patterns of atmospheric river clusters are primarily attributed to subseasonal variability. Furthermore, the occurrence and density of atmospheric river clusters are modulated by the daily variability of the geopotential height field. Climate model projections suggest that atmospheric river clusters with higher density and higher categories will be more frequent as warming level increases. Our findings emphasize the important role of atmospheric river clusters in the development of climate adaptation and resilience strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying Long-Term Changes in Carbon Stocks and Forest Structure from Amazon Forest Degradation

Despite sustained declines in Amazon deforestation, forest degradation from logging and firecontinues to threaten carbon stocks, habitat, and biodiversity in frontier forests along the Amazon arcof deforestation. Limited data on the magnitude of carbon losses and rates of carbon recoveryfollowing forest degradation have hindered carbon accounting efforts and contributed to incompletenational reporting to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+). Wecombined annual time series of Landsat imagery and high-density airborne lidar data to characterizethe variability, magnitude, and persistence of Amazon forest degradation impacts on abovegroundcarbon density (ACD) and canopy structure. On average, degraded forests contained 45.1% of thecarbon stocks in intact forests, and differences persisted even after 15 years of regrowth. Incomparison to logging, understory fires resulted in the largest and longest-lasting differences in ACD.Heterogeneity in burned forest structure varied by fire severity and frequency. Forests with a historyof one, two, and three or more fires retained only 54.4%, 25.2%, and 7.6% of intact ACD,respectively, when measured after a year of regrowth. Unlike the additive impact of successive fires,selective logging before burning did not explain additional variability in modeled ACD loss andrecovery of burned forests. Airborne lidar also provides quantitative measures of habitat structure thatcan aid the estimation of co-benefits of avoided degradation. Notably, forest carbon stocks recoveredfaster than attributes of canopy structure that are critical for biodiversity in tropical forests, includingthe abundance of tall trees. We provide the first comprehensive look-up table of emissions factors forspecific degradation pathways at standard reporting intervals in the Amazon. Estimated carbon lossand recovery trajectories provide an important foundation for assessing the long-term contributionsfrom forest degradation to regional carbon cycling and advance our understanding of the currentstate of frontier forests.

Rappaport, Danielle I.↗

A functional global sensitivity measure and efficient reliability sensitivity analysis with respect to statistical parameters

Sensitivity analysis and reliability assessment are two important aspects of structural and system safety. Epistemic uncertainty with respect to probabilistic model of input parameters due to lack of knowledge is present in many scarce-data applications and complicates the characterization of uncertainty in model response. In this article, we present two importance measures to evaluate the impact of distribution parameters on the probability distribution function (PDF) of the output and the failure probability. The epistemic uncertainty associated with the distribution parameters is modeled as random variables. Additionally, a modified extended polynomial chaos expansion (MEPCE) approach is introduced in which aleatory and epistemic random variables are modeled and propagated simultaneously while allowing the separate assessment for any single epistemic variable. A MEPCE-based kernel density estimation (KDE) construction provides a composite map from each epistemic variable to the response PDF. The functional global sensitivity index of the PDF with respect to the distribution parameters is thus derived, as a function of output, which is both more informative and more efficient than standard scalar sensitivity measures. Reliability sensitivity indices can be readily evaluated by integrating the global sensitivity index function over the failure zone. Three illustrative examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Capturing Maize Stand Heterogeneity Across Yield-Stability Zones Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV)

Despite the new equipment capabilities, uneven crop stands are still common occurrences in crop fields, mainly due to spatial heterogeneity in soil conditions, seedling mortality due to herbivore predation and disease, or human error. Non-uniform plant stands may reduce grain yield in crops like maize. Thus, detecting signs of variability in crop stand density early in the season provides critical information for management decisions and crop yield forecasts. Processing techniques applied on images captured by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has been used successfully to identify crop rows and estimate stand density and, most recently, to estimate plant-to-plant interval distance. Here, we further test and apply an image processing algorithm on UAV images collected from yield-stability zones in a commercial crop field. Our objective was to implement the algorithm to compare variation of plant-spacing intervals to test whether yield differences within these zones are related to differences in crop stand characteristics. Our analysis indicates that the algorithm can be reliably used to estimate plant counts (precision >95% and recall >97%) and plant distance interval (R2 ~0.9 and relative error <10%). Analysis of the collected data indicated that plant spacing variability differences were small among plots with large yield differences, suggesting that it was not a major cause of yield variability across zones with distinct yield history. This analysis provides an example of how plant-detection algorithms can be applied to improve the understanding of patterns of spatial and temporal yield variability.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Variable Polytropic gas cosmology

We mainly study a cosmological scenario represented by the variable Polytropic gas (VPG) unified energy density proposal. To reach this aim, we start with reconstructing a variable form of the original Polytropic gas (OPG) definition. We show that this model is a generalization of the OPG, cosmological constant plus cold dark matter (ΛCDM) and two different Chaplygin gas models. Later, we fit the auxiliary parameters given in the model and discuss essential cosmological features of the VPG proposal. Besides, we compare the VPG with the OPG by focusing on recent observational dataset given in literature including Planck 2018 results. We see that the VPG model yields better results than the OPG description and it fits very well with the recent experimental data. Moreover, we discuss some thermodynamical features of the VPG and conclude that the model describes a thermodynamically stable system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Calculation of nonequilibrium radiation in the flight regimes of aeroassisted orbital transfer vehicles

A computer code has been developed that calculates radiative properties of nonequilibrium air in the low-density regimes expected during the flight of aeroassisted, orbital transfer vehicles. From the given nonequilibrium thermodynamic state variables, the code calculates number densities of internal states and the accompanying emission and absorption characteristics. In addition, the code calculates the number density of the hypothetical gas in radiative equilibrium that produces the same radiation emission as the given nonequilibrium gas. Sample results are shown to demonstrate how the code predicts the nonlinear variation of radiation with density at low densities.

Park, C.↗

Probabilistic Modeling of High-Temperature Material Properties of a 5-Harness 0/90 Sylramic Fiber/ CVI-SiC/ MI-SiC Woven Composite

An integrated probabilistic approach has been developed to assess composites for high temperature applications. This approach was used to determine thermal and mechanical properties and their probabilistic distributions of a 5-harness 0/90 Sylramic fiber/CVI-SiC/Mi-SiC woven Ceramic Matrix Composite (CMC) at high temperatures. The purpose of developing this approach was to generate quantitative probabilistic information on this CMC to help complete the evaluation for its potential application for HSCT combustor liner. This approach quantified the influences of uncertainties inherent in constituent properties called primitive variables on selected key response variables of the CMC at 2200 F. The quantitative information is presented in the form of Cumulative Density Functions (CDFs). Probability Density Functions (PDFS) and primitive variable sensitivities on response. Results indicate that the scatters in response variables were reduced by 30-50% when the uncertainties in the primitive variables, which showed the most influence, were reduced by 50%.

Nagpal, Vinod K.↗

Calculation of Nonequilibrium Radiation in the Flight Regimes of Aeroassisted Orbital Transfer Vehicles

A computer code has been developed that calculates radiative properties of nonequilibrium air in the low-density regimes expected during the flight of aeroassisted, orbital transfer vehicles. From the given nonequilibrium thermodynamic state variables, the code calculates number densities of internal states and the accompanying emission and absorption characteristics. In addition, the code calculates the number density of the hypothetical gas in radiative equilibrium that produces the same radiation emission as the given nonequilibrium gas. Sample results are shown to demonstrate how the code predicts the non-linear variation of radiation with density at low densities.

Park, Chul↗

Comparison of removal and spatial mark‐resight models for estimating wild pig density

Density estimation is critical to effectively manage invasive species and elucidate areas of highest concern. For wild pigs (Sus scrofa), the ability to estimate density is complicated because of their variable home range sizes and social structure. Common methods for estimating density (e.g., mark-recapture) may be unsuitable in management applications because additional data needs to be collected before and after management. Removal models offer a suitable alternative to estimate density changes following management and can be applied broadly across areas where management of wild pigs is ongoing. We collected wild pig removal and camera trap data from 25 private properties ranging in size from approximately 0.5 km 2 to 95 km 2 across 3 ecoregions in South Carolina, USA, from 2020–2023. We compared factors affecting consistency and precision of property-level density estimates between removal and spatial mark-resight (SMR) models. In general, excluding 1 large outlier, density estimates from removal models were between 0.60 and 15.85 wild pigs/km 2 (median = 5.34) with a median coefficient of variation (CV) of 0.76 and 95% confidence intervals for the CV between 0.70 and 0.94. Similarly, excluding 1 large outlier, density estimates from SMR were between 0.22 and 30.97 wild pigs/km 2 (median = 5.48) with a median CV of 0.39 and 95% confidence intervals for the CV between 0.38 and 1.20. We found the precision of removal models was affected primarily by the number of wild pigs dispatched in the removal period (3 months) and the ecoregion in which they were removed. None of the covariates, including the number of recaptures (a corresponding measure of sample size), influenced precision of the SMR models, although recaptures did influence the density estimates. At the individual property level, density estimates from our 2 estimators were dissimilar from each other in approximately 80% of instances, although none of the covariates we examined influenced dissimilarity. Our results provide unique insight into how sample size affects density estimates using 2 common methods and into novel SMR models that incorporate both marked and unmarked detections. In addition, the density estimates in this study can be used as a reference for wild pig densities in common land cover types throughout the southeastern United States.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Integrated Hourly Meteorological Database of 20 Meteorological Stations (1981-2022) for Watershed Function SFA Hydrological Modeling

This dataset contains (a) a script “R_met_integrated_for_modeling.R”, and (b) associated input CSV files: 3 CSV files per location to create a 5-variable integrated meteorological dataset file (air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, and solar radiation) for 19 meteorological stations and 1 location within Trail Creek from the modeling team within the East River Community Observatory as part of the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (SFA). As meteorological forcings varied across the watershed, a high-frequency database is needed to ensure consistency in the data analysis and modeling. We evaluated several data sources, including gridded meteorological products and field data from meteorological stations. We determined that our modeling efforts required multiple data sources to meet all their needs. As output, this dataset contains (c) a single CSV data file (*_1981-2022.csv) for each location (20 CSV output files total) containing hourly time series data for 1981 to 2022 and (d) five PNG files of time series and density plots for each variable per location (100 PNG files). Detailed location metadata is contained within the Integrated_Met_Database_Locations.csv file for each point location included within this dataset, obtained from Varadharajan et al., 2023 doi:10.15485/1660962. This dataset also includes (e) a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata and (f) a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type. Review the (g) ReadMe_Integrated_Met_Database.pdf file for additional details on the script, methods, and structure of the dataset.The script integrates Northwest Alliance for Computational Science and Engineering’s PRISM gridded data product, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis 1 gridded data product (through the `RCNEP` R package, Kemp et al., doi:10.32614/CRAN.package.RNCEP), and analytical-based calculations. Further, this script downscales the input data into hourly frequency, which is necessary for the modeling efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mapping tall shrub biomass in Alaska at landscape scale using structure-from-motion photogrammetry and lidar

Warming in arctic and boreal regions is increasing shrub cover and biomass. In southcentral Alaska, willow (Salix spp.) and alder (Alnus spp.) shrubs grow taller than many tree species and account for a substantial proportion of aboveground biomass, yet they are not individually measured as part of the operational Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program. The goal of this research was to test methods for landscape-scale mapping of tall shrub biomass in upper montane and subalpine environments using FIA-type plot measurements (n = 51) and predictor variables from imagery-based structure-from-motion (SfM) and airborne lidar. Specifically, we compared biomass models constructed from imagery acquired by unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV; ~1.7 cm pixels), imagery from the NASA Goddard's Lidar, Hyperspectral, and Thermal Airborne Imager (G-LiHT; ~3.1 cm pixels), and concomitant G-LiHT small-footprint lidar. Tall shrub biomass was most accurately predicted at 5 m resolution (R^2 = 0.81, RMSE = 1.09 kg/sq. m) using G-LiHT SfM color and structure variables. Lidar-only models had lower precision (R^2 = 0.74, RMSE = 1.26 kg/sq. m), possibly due to reduced model information content from variable multicollinearity or lower data density. Separate models for upper montane zones with trees and shrubs and subalpine zones with only shrubs were always chosen over single models based on minimization of Akaike's Information Criterion, indicating the need for variable sets robust to overhanging tree canopy. Decreasing point density from UAV (5000–8000 pts./sq. m) to the G-LiHT SfM point cloud (500–2000 pts./sq. m) had little impact on model fit, suggesting that high-resolution airborne imagery can extend SfM approaches well beyond line-of-sight restrictions for UAV platforms. Overall, our results confirmed that SfM from high-resolution imagery is a viable approach to estimate shrub biomass in the boreal region, especially when an existing lidar terrain model and local field calibration data are available to quantify uncertainty in the SfM point cloud and landscape-scale estimates of shrub biomass.

Michael Alonzo↗

Development of Efficient Real-Fluid Model in Simulating Liquid Rocket Injector Flows

The characteristics of propellant mixing near the injector have a profound effect on the liquid rocket engine performance. However, the flow features near the injector of liquid rocket engines are extremely complicated, for example supercritical-pressure spray, turbulent mixing, and chemical reactions are present. Previously, a homogeneous spray approach with a real-fluid property model was developed to account for the compressibility and evaporation effects such that thermodynamics properties of a mixture at a wide range of pressures and temperatures can be properly calculated, including liquid-phase, gas- phase, two-phase, and dense fluid regions. The developed homogeneous spray model demonstrated a good success in simulating uni- element shear coaxial injector spray combustion flows. However, the real-fluid model suffered a computational deficiency when applied to a pressure-based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code. The deficiency is caused by the pressure and enthalpy being the independent variables in the solution procedure of a pressure-based code, whereas the real-fluid model utilizes density and temperature as independent variables. The objective of the present research work is to improve the computational efficiency of the real-fluid property model in computing thermal properties. The proposed approach is called an efficient real-fluid model, and the improvement of computational efficiency is achieved by using a combination of a liquid species and a gaseous species to represent a real-fluid species.

Cheng, Gary↗

Simultaneous optimization of hatching orientations and lattice density distribution for residual warpage reduction in laser powder bed fusion considering layerwise residual stress stacking

The reduction in the residual warpage generated via fabrication is an emerging issue in metals’ laser powder bed fusion additive manufacturing (AM). One solution from a design for additive manufacturing (DfAM) perspective is to arrange a hatching strategy that utilizes the asymmetry of the residual stress generated from a molten pool. Another approach is to arrange the geometry of the parts, such as forming an inner lattice structure to arrange the effective stiffness. In this study, the simultaneous optimization of the laser hatching orientation and lattice density distribution was conducted to minimize the residual warpage in lattice infill structures and confirm their synergetic effect. The mutual effect of each layer was highlighted when considering the mechanical background of the optimal results because an imbalance in the residual stress caused the warpage of the AM parts between the layers. The proposed methodology was validated via experimental verification using a quasi-2D plate, 3D bracket, and 3D connecting-rod design problems. The residual warpage in the quasi-2D study, measured as the edge’s vertical deformation, was reduced from 23.4% to 39.4% compared with the benchmark design. In the 3D studies, the warpage reductions ranged from 13.1% to 20.7%.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Evolution of the solar nebula. I - Nonaxisymmetric structure during nebula formation

Numerical solutions of the equations of hydrodynamics, gravitation, and radiative transfer in three spatial dimensions are used to model the formation and time evolution of the early solar nebula in order to learn whether or not gravitational torques between nonaxisymmetric structures in the solar nebula can transport angular momentum rapidly enough to produce nebula clearing on astronomically indicated (10 to the 5 to 10 to the 7 yr) time scales. The models involve solutions for the collapse of spherical clouds with assumed initial density and rotation profiles onto protosuns of variable mass. Most of the models assume uniform initial density and rotation, and have variations in the initial parameters of cloud mass, cloud rotation rate, and protosun mass which are chosen to simulate a range of possible phases of early solar nebula evolution. The models show little tendency for directly forming small numbers of giant gaseous protoplanets through gaseous gravitational instability.

Boss, Alan P.↗

Dynamic Stall Measurements and Computations for a VR-12 Airfoil with a Variable Droop Leading Edge

High density-altitude operations of helicopters with advanced performance and maneuver capabilities have lead to fundamental research on active high-lift system concepts for rotor blades. The requirement for this type of system was to improve the sectional lift-to-drag ratio by alleviating dynamic stall on the retreating blade while simultaneously reducing the transonic drag rise of the advancing blade. Both measured and computational results showed that a Variable Droop Leading Edge (VDLE) airfoil is a viable concept for application to a rotor high-lift system. Results are presented for a series of 2D compressible dynamic stall wind tunnel tests with supporting CFD results for selected test cases. These measurements and computations show a dramatic decrease in the drag and pitching moment associated with severe dynamic stall when the VDLE concept is applied to the Boeing VR-12 airfoil. Test results also show an elimination of the negative pitch damping observed in the baseline moment hysteresis curves.

Martin, P. B.↗