Comparison of Surrogate Models with Physical Models for Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Analysis Using the RAVEN Code
Dynamic probabilistic risk analysis (DPRA) has emerged in the nuclear industry as an effective tool to identify points of weakness in nuclear reactors and create a comprehensive approach to quantifying risk. While DPRA allows for detailed analysis, it usually requires thousands of runs due to the necessity of exploring low probability, high consequence events, which can be computationally prohibitively difficult to assess. Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) is a software package being developed under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program at the Idaho National Laboratory. It is able to manage complex control logic to drive a RELAP-7 simulation and to handle sampling strategies including Monte Carlo, Latin Hypercube, Grid and Adaptive samplers. By performing a thorough investigation of the possibility space of an accident scenario with RELAP-7, RAVEN is able to identify consequences of accident scenarios that have not been encountered. The most computational resource intensive step of a RAVEN analysis is running the RELAP-7 code modeling the physical system behavior. Using surrogate models to represent the outcomes of more complex simulations rather than the full model can greatly reduce the computation effort required. In situations where the uncertainty distributions of a model are unknown, or when there are multiple sets of uncertainty distributions, DPRA generally requires rerunning the physical model for each set of uncertainty distributions used. By taking an unbiased sample of the physical model and creating a surrogate model from the results, the surrogate model can be sampled under a different set of uncertainty distributions to provide equivalent results. This paper presents an example of this approach. (authors)