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NASA NTRS2004

Transport of Biomass Burning Emissions from Southern Africa

The transport of biomass burning emissions from southern Africa to the neighboring Atlantic and Indian Oceans during the dry season (May-October) of 2000 is characterized using ground, ozonesonde, and aircraft measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3) in and around southern Africa, together with the GEOS-CHEM global model of tropospheric chemistry. The model shows a positive bias of approximately 20% for CO and a negative bias of approximately 10-25% for O3 at oceanic sites downwind of fire emissions. Near areas of active fire emissions the model shows a negative bias of approximately 60% and approximately 30% for CO and O3, respectively, likely due to the coarse spatial (2 deg. x 2.5 deg.) and temporal (monthly) resolution of the model compared to that of active fires. On average, from 1994 to 2000, approximately 60 Tg of carbon monoxide (CO) from biomass burning in southern Africa was transported eastward to the Indian Ocean across the latitude band 0 deg. -60 S during the 6 months of the dry season. Over the same time period, approximately 40 Tg of CO from southern African biomass burning was transported westward to the Atlantic Ocean over the latitudes 0 deg. -20 S during the 6-month dry season, but most of that amount was transported back eastward over higher latitudes to the south (21 deg. -60 S). Eastward transport of biomass burning emissions from southern Africa enhances CO concentrations by approximately 4- 13 ppbv per month over the southern subtropical Indian Ocean during the dry season, with peak enhancements in September. Carbon monoxide from southern African and South American biomass burning is seen in the model simulations as far away as Australia, contributing approximately 8 ppbv and approximately 12-15 ppbv CO, respectively, and thus explaining the approximately 20- 25 ppbv observed enhancement of CO over Melbourne in mid-September 2000.

Sinha, Parikhit↗

NASA NTRS2009

Markets, Climate Change and Food Security in West Africa

West Africa is one of the most food insecure regions of the world. Sharply increased food and energy prices in 2008 brought the role of markets in food access and availability around the world into the spotlight, particularly in urban areas. The period of high prices had the immediate consequence of sharply increasing the number of hungry people in the region without boosting farmer incomes significantly. In this article, the interaction between markets, food prices, agricultural technology and development is explored in the context of West Africa. To improve food security in West Africa, sustained commitment to investment in the agriculture sector will be needed to provide some protection against global swings in both production and world markets. Climate change mitigation programs are likely to force global energy and commodity price increases in the coming decades, putting pressure on regions like West Africa to produce more food locally to ensure stability in food security for the most vulnerable.

Brown, Molly E.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Response of the Water Cycle of West Africa and Atlantic to Radiative Forcing by Saharan Dust

The responses of the atmospheric water cycle and climate of West Africa and the Atlantic to radiative forcing of Saharan dust are studied using the NASA finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), coupled to a mixed layer ocean. We find evidence in support of the "elevated heat pump" (EHP) mechanism that underlines the responses of the atmospheric water cycle to dust forcing as follow. During the boreal summer, as a result of large-scale atmospheric feed back triggered by absorbing dust aerosols, rainfall and cloudiness are enhanced over the West Africa/Easter Atlantic ITCZ, and suppressed over the West Atlantic and Caribbean. region. Shortwave radiation absorption by dust warms the atmosphere and cools the surface, while long wave has the opposite response. The elevated dust layer warms the air over Nest Africa and the eastern Atlantic. The condensation heating associated with the induced deep convection drives and maintains an anomalous large-scale east-west overturning circulation with rising motion over West Africa/eastern Atlantic, and sinking motion over the Caribbean region. The response also includes a strengthening of the West African monsoon, manifested in northward shift of the West Africa precipitation over land, increased low-level westerlies flow over West Africa at the southern edge of the dust layer, and a near surface energy fluxes, resulting in cooling of the Nest African land and the eastern Atlantic, and a warming in the West Atlantic and Caribbean. The EHP effect is most effective for moderate to highly absorbing dusts, and becomes minimized for reflecting dust with single scattering albedo at 0.95 or higher.

Lau, K. M.↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Effect of Agricultural Growing Season Change on Market Prices in Africa

Local agricultural production is a key element of food security in many agricultural countries in Africa. Climate change and variability is likely to adversely affect these countries, particularly as they affect the ability of smallholder farmers to raise enough food to feed themselves. Seasonality influences farmers' decisions about when to sow and harvest, and ultimately the success or failure of their crops. At a 2009 conference in the United Kingdom hosted by the Institute of Development Studies, Jennings and Magrath (2009) described farmer reports from East Asia, South Asia, Southern Africa, East Africa and Latin America. Farmers indicate significant changes in the timing of rainy seasons and the pattern of rains within seasons, including: More erratic rainfall, coming at unexpected times in and out of season; Extreme storms and unusually intense rainfall are punctuated by longer dry spells within the rainy season; Increasing uncertainty as to the start of rainy seasons in many areas; Short or transitional second rainy seasons are becoming stronger than normal or are disappearing altogether. These farmer perceptions of change are striking in that they are geographically widespread and are remarkably consistent across diverse regions (Jennings and Magrath, 2009). The impact of these changes on farmers with small plots and few resources is large. Farming is becoming riskier because of heat stress, lack of water, pests and diseases that interact with ongoing pressures on natural resources. Lack of predictability in the start and length of the growing season affects the ability of farmers to invest in appropriate fertilizer levels or improved, high yielding varieties. These changes occur at the same time as the demand for food is rising and is projected to continue to rise for the next fifty years (IAASTD, 2008). Long-term data records derived from satellite remote sensing can be used to verify these reports, providing necessary analysis and documentation required to plan effective adaptation strategies. Remote sensing data can also provide some understanding of the spatial extent of these changes and whether they are likely to continue. Given the agricultural nature of most economies on the African continent, agricultural production continues to be a critical determinant of both food security and economic growth (Funk and Brown, 2009). Crop phenological parameters, such as the start and end of the growing season, the total length of the growing season, and the rate of greening and senescence are important for planning crop management, crop diversification, and intensification. The World Food Summit of 1996 defined food security as: "when all people at all times have access to sufficient, safe, nutritious food to maintain a healthy and active life". Food security roughly depends on three factors: 1) availability of food; 2) access to food and 3) appropriate use of food, as well as adequate water and sanitation. The first factor is dependent on growing conditions and weather and climate. In a previous paper we have investigated this factor by evaluating the effect of large scale climate oscillation on land surface phenology (Brown et al., 2010). We found that all areas in Africa are significantly affected by at least one type of large scale climate oscillations and concluded that these somewhat predictable oscillations could perhaps be used to forecast agricultural production. In addition, we have evaluated changes in agricultural land surface phenology over time (Brown et al., 2012). We found that land surface phenology models, which link large-scale vegetation indices with accumulated humidity, could successfully predict agricultural productivity in several countries around the world. In this chapter we are interested in the effect of variability in peak timing of the growing season, or phenology, on the second factor of food security, food access. In this chapter we want to determine if there is a link between market prices and land surface phenology and to determine which markets are vulnerable to land surface phenology changes and variability and which market prices are not correlated.

Prices↗

NASA NTRS2015

Perspectives on Climate Effects on Agriculture: The International Efforts of AgMIP in Sub-Saharan Africa

Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is experiencing climate change-related effects that call for integrated regional assessments, yet capacity for these assessments has been low. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is advancing research on integrated regional assessments of climate change that include climate, crop, and economic modeling and analysis. Through AgMIP, regional integrated assessments are increasingly gaining momentum in SSA, and multi-institutional regional research teams (RRTs) centered in East, West, and Southern· Africa are generating new information on climate change impacts and adaptation in selected agricultural systems. The research in Africa is organized into four RRTs and a coordination team. Each of the RRTs in SSA is composed of scientists from the Consultative Group of International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) institutions, National Agriculture Research institutes (NARs), and universities consisting of experts in crop and economic modeling, climate, and information technology. Stakeholder involvement to inform specific agricultural systems to be evaluated, key outputs, and the representative agricultural pathways (RAPs), is undertaken at two levels: regional and national, in order to contribute to decision making at these levels. Capacity building for integrated assessment (lA) is a key component that is undertaken continuously through interaction with experts in regional and SSA-wide workshops, and through joint creation of tools. Many students and research affiliates have been identified and entrained as part of capacity building in IA. Bi-monthly updates on scholarly publications in climate change in Africa also serve as a vehicle for knowledge-sharing. With 60 scientists already trained and actively engaged in IA and over 80 getting monthly briefs on the latest information on climate change, a climate-informed community of experts is gradually taking shape in SSA. (See Part 2, Appendices 3-5 in this volume for AgMIP Regional Workshop reports.)

Kihara, Job↗

NASA NTRS2018

Downscaling Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Model Precipitation Simulations over Africa Using Bias-Corrected Lateral and Lower Boundary Conditions

A prequel study showed that dynamic downscaling using a regional climate model (RCM) over Africa improved the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Model (GISS AOGCM: ModelE) simulation of June–September rainfall patterns over Africa. The current study applies bias corrections to the lateral and lower boundary data from the AOGCM driving the RCM, based on the comparison of a 30-year simulation to the actual climate. The analysis examines the horizontal pattern of June–September total accumulated precipitation, the time versus latitude evolution of zonal mean West Africa (WA) precipitation (showing monsoon onset timing), and the latitude versus altitude cross-section of zonal winds over WA (showing the African Easterly Jet and the Tropical Easterly Jet). The study shows that correcting for excessively warm AOGCM Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) improves the simulation of key features, whereas applying 30-year mean bias corrections to atmospheric variables driving the RCM at the lateral boundaries does not improve the RCM simulations. We suggest that AOGCM climate projections for Africa should benefit from downscaling by nesting an RCM that has demonstrated skill in simulating African climate, driven with bias-corrected SST.

West African monsoon↗

NASA NTRS2022

The Ozone–Climate Penalty Over South America and Africa By 2100

Climate change has the potential to increase surface ozone (O3) concentrations, known as the “ozone–climate penalty”, through changes to atmospheric chemistry, transport and dry deposition. In the tropics, the response of surface O3 to changing climate is relatively understudied but has important consequences for air pollution and human and ecosystem health. In this study, we evaluate the change in surface O3 due to climate change over South America and Africa using three state-of-the-art Earth system models that follow the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3-7.0 emission scenario from CMIP6. In order to quantify changes due to climate change alone, we evaluate the difference between simulations including climate change and simulations with a fixed present-day climate. We find that by 2100, models predict an ozone–climate penalty in areas where O3 is already predicted to be high due to the impacts of precursor emissions, namely urban and biomass burning areas, although on average, models predict a decrease in surface O3 due to climate change. We identify a small but robust positive trend in annual mean surface O3 over polluted areas. Additionally, during biomass burning seasons, seasonal mean O3 concentrations increase by 15 ppb (model range 12 to 18 ppb) in areas with substantial biomass burning such as the arc of deforestation in the Amazon. The ozone–climate penalty in polluted areas is shown to be driven by an increased rate of O3 chemical production, which is strongly influenced by NOx concentrations and is therefore specific to the emission pathway chosen. Multiple linear regression finds the change in NOx concentration to be a strong predictor of the change in O3 production, whereas increased isoprene emission rate is positively correlated with increased O3 destruction, suggesting NOx-limited conditions over the majority of tropical Africa and South America. However, models disagree on the role of climate change in remote, low-NOx regions, partly because of significant differences in NOx concentrations produced by each model. We also find that the magnitude and location of the ozone–climate penalty in the Congo Basin has greater inter-model variation than that in the Amazon, so further model development and validation are needed to constrain the response in central Africa. We conclude that if the climate were to change according to the emission scenario used here, models predict that forested areas in biomass burning locations and urban populations will be at increasing risk of high O3 exposure, irrespective of any direct impacts on O3 via the prescribed emission scenario.

Surface ozone↗

NASA NTRS2023

Multiyear Dry Periods in Southern Africa

Characteristics and physical features related to low precipitation across many years in Southern Africa that lead to societal disruptions are diagnosed using observed analyses and an ensemble of historical coupled climate model simulations during 1921 to 2014. Four regions are evaluated, as identified through a hierarchical clustering algorithm applied to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) during the October–April precipitation season. Although dryness spanning many October–April occurs periodically in each region, they seldom occur simultaneously, consistent with largely insignificant SPI cross-correlations between them. However, characteristics relevant to low precipitation across many years are generalizable between the four regions, including the serial persistence of October–April precipitation, the likelihood of consecutive dry October–April, and the likelihood of dry October–April in temporal extents of up to 10 consecutive such 7-month seasons. Systematic precipitation persistence is not a feature in any of the four Southern Africa regions, as serial correlations of October–April SPI are not statistically significant at any time lags. It follows that there is an exponential-folding decay in the likelihood of consecutive October–April for various SPI thresholds and that there is a large spread in the likelihood of low October–April SPI across many years. In terms of physical features, low October–April SPI in each Southern Africa region is closely related to local atmospheric circulations; however, they are not as closely related to sea surface temperatures (SSTs). These results suggest that dryness spanning many years is determined primarily by persistent local circulations related to atmospheric variability and to a lesser extent variability related to SST anomalies, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

subtropical Indian Ocean dipole↗

NASA NTRS1974

ERTS imagery as a source of environmental information for southern Africa

Southern Africa is faced with a variety of environmental problems that reflect the different states of development of countries in the region. The task of the environmental planner is in many instances complicated by a lack of basic resource information. The acquisition of the necessary data is often impeded by shortage of trained personnel and lack of funds, particularly in developing nations of the region. The range of environmental problems in Southern Africa are described and specific examples are shown of how ERTS type imagery can materially assist in solving these problems. These examples demonstrate that ERTS type data will be of substantial value to both the industrialized and the developing nations of Southern Africa, provided that problems of availability and user education are overcome.

Williamson, D. T.↗

NASA NTRS1981

An investigation of MAGSAT and complementary data emphasizing precambrian shields and adjacent areas of West Africa and South America

Accomplishments with regard to the mapping and analysis of MAGSAT data for the investigation of correlations between the magnetic field characteristics of South American and African shields are reported. Significant results in the interpretation of the global total-field anomalies and the anomaly patterns of Africa and South America are discussed. The central position of the Brazilian shield tends to form a negative total-field anomaly, consistent with findings for shields in equatorial Africa. Sedimentary sequences in the Amazon basin and in the Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paolo areas exhibit positive anomalies, also consistent with equatorial Africa. Results for the Caribbean Sea and Guyana regions are also described.

Hastings, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS1982

An investigation of MAGSAT and complementary data emphasizing precambrian shields and adjacent areas of West Africa and South America

The problems associated with the use of an interactive magnetic modeling program are reported and a publication summarizing the MAGSAT anomaly results for Africa and the possible tectonic associations of these anomalies is provided. An overview of the MAGSAT scalar anomaly map for Africa suggested a correlation of MAGSAT anomalies with major crustal blocks of uplift or depression and different degrees of regional metamorphism. The strongest MAGSAT anomalies in Africa are closely correlated spatially with major tectonic features. Results indicate that the Bangui anomaly may be caused by a central old Precambrian shield, flanked to the north and south by two relatively young sedimentary basins.

Hastings, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Reduced to Pole Long-wavelength Magnetic Anomalies of Africa and Europe

To facilitate analysis of the tectonic framework for Africa, Europe and adjacent marine areas, MAGSAT scalar anomaly data are differentially reduced to the pole and compared to regional geologic information and geophysical data including surface free-air gravity anomaly data upward continued to satellite elevation (350 km) on a spherical Earth. Comparative analysis shows magnetic anomalies correspond with both ancient as well as more recent Cenozoic structural features. Anomalies associated with ancient structures are primarily caused by intra-crustal lithologic variations such as the crustal disturbance associated with the Bangui anomaly in west-central Africa. Anomalies correlative with Cenozoic tectonic elements appear to be related to Curie isotherm perturbations. A possible example of the latter is the well-defined trend of magnetic minima that characterize the Alpine orogenic belt from the Atlas mountains to Eurasia. In contrast, a well-defined magnetic satellite minimum extends across the stable craton from Finland to the Ural mountains. Prominent magnetic maxima characterize the Arabian plate, Iceland, the Kursk region of the central Russian uplift, and generally the Precambrian shields of Africa.

Hinze, W. J.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Reduced to pole long-wavelength magnetic anomalies of Africa and Europe

To facilitate analysis of the tectonic framework for Africa, Europe and adjacent marine areas, MAGSAT scalar anomaly data are differentially reduced to the pole and compared to regional geologic information and geophysical data including surface free-air gravity anomaly data upward continued to satellite elevation (350 km) on a spherical Earth. Comparative analysis shows magnetic anomalies correspond with both ancient as well as more recent Cenozoic structural features. Anomalies associated with ancient structures are primarily caused by intra-crustal lithologic variations such as the crustal disturbance associated with the Bangui anomaly in west-central Africa. Anomalies correlative with Cenozoic tectonic elements appear to be related to Curie isotherm perturbations. A possible example of the latter is the well-defined trend of magnetic minima that characterize the Alphine orogenic belt from the Atlas mountains to Eurasia. In contrast, a well-defined magnetic satellite minimum extends across the stable craton from Finland to the Ural mountains. Prominent magnetic maxima characterize the Arabian plate, Iceland, the Kursk region of the central Russian uplift, and generally the Precambrian shields of Africa.

Olivier, R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Ocean climate data for user community in West and Central Africa: Needs, opportunities, and challenges

The urgent need to improve data delivery systems needed by scientists studying ocean role in climate and climate characteristics has been manifested in recent years because of the unprecedented climatic events experienced in many parts of the world. Indeed, there has been a striking and growing realization by governments and the general public indicating that national economies and human welfare depend on climate and its variability. In West and Central Africa, for instance climatic events, which have resulted in floods and droughts, have caused a lot of concern to both governments and people of the region. In particular, the droughts have been so widespread that greater awareness and concern have become generated for the need to find solutions to the problems created by the consequences of the climatic events. Particularly in the southern border regions of the Sahara Desert as well as in the Sahel region, the drought episodes considerably reduced food production and led to series of socioeconomic problems, not only in the areas affected by the droughts, but also in the other parts of West Africa. The various climatic variabilities which have caused the climatic events are no doubt related to the ocean-atmosphere interactions. Unfortunately, not much has been done on the understanding of these interactions, particularly as they affect developing countries. Indeed, not much has been done to develop programs which will reflect the general concerns and needs for researching into the ocean-atmosphere systems and their implications on man-environmental systems in many developing countries. This is for example, true of West and Central Africa, where compared with the middle latitude countries, much less is known about the characteristics of the ocean-atmosphere systems and their significance on man-environmental systems of the area.

Ojo, S. O.↗

NASA NTRS2004

NASA LCLUC Program: An Integrated Forest Monitoring System for Central Africa

Central Africa has the second largest unfragmented block of tropical rain forest in the world; it is also one of the largest carbon and biodiversity reservoirs. With nearly one-third of the forest currently allocated for logging, the region is poised to undergo extensive land-use change. Through the mapping of the forests, our Integrated Forest Monitoring System for Central Africa (INFORMS) project aims to monitor habitat alteration, support biodiversity conservation, and promote better land-use planning and forest management. Designed as an interdisciplinary project, its goal is to integrate data acquired from satellites with field observations from forest inventories, wildlife surveys, and socio-economic studies to map and monitor forest resources. This project also emphasizes on collaboration and coordination with international, regional, national, and local partners-including non-profit, governmental, and commercial sectors. This project has been focused on developing remote sensing products for the needs of forest conservation and management, insuring that research findings are incorporated in forest management plans at the national level. The societal impact of INFORMS can be also appreciated through the development of a regional remote sensing network in central Africa. With a regional office in Kinshasa, (www.OSFAC.org), the contribution to the development of forest management plans for 1.5 million hectares of forests in northern Republic of Congo (www.tt-timber.com), and the monitoring of park encroachments in the Albertine region (Uganda and DRC) (www.albertinerift.org).

Laporte, Nadine↗

NASA NTRS2003

Effects of Humidity on Aerosols in Southern Africa during the Biomass Burning Season

Measurements of the aerosol total light scattering coefficient, asp, and the aerosol hemispheric backscatter ratio, p(1), as functions of relative humidity (RH in %) (so-called humidographs) at three wavelengths (450,550, and 700 nm) were obtained in the dry season in southern Africa (1) in ambient air in South Africa, Botswana, Mozambique and Zambia, (2) at various distances downwind in identifiable smoke plumes from biomass fires, and (3) along the southwest coast of Africa. The ratio of sigma(sub sp) at an RH of 80% to that at 30% provides a measure of the effects of RH on sigma(sub sp), and similarly for Beta(1). For the three broad sampling categories given above, and at a wavelength of 550 nm, these ratios varied from 1.42 +/- 0.05 to 2.07 +/- 0.03 for sigma(sub sp), and from 0.69 +/- 0.05 to 0.99 +/- 0.14 for Beta(1). In general, humidographs for the ambient air samples showed a greater dependence on RH than those for smoke from identifiable biomass fires. During a period when dense, aged smoke was transported to the region from the north, the humidographs for sigma(sub sp) for ambient air samples were similar to those for identifiable smoke plume samples just approximately 10- to 50-min old. This suggests that as far as the effects of RH on sigma(sub sp) are concerned the effects of aging of smoke and its mixing with ambient air are realized within less than about an hour.

Magi, Brian I.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Emissions of Trace Gases and Particles from Savanna Fires in Southern Africa

Airborne measurements made on initial smoke from 10 savanna fires in southern Africa provide quantitative data on emissions of 50 gaseous and particulate species, including carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, methane, ammonia, dimethyl sulfide, nonmethane organic compounds, halocarbons, gaseous organic acids, aerosol ionic components, carbonaceous aerosols, and condensation nuclei (CN). Measurements of several of the gaseous species by gas chromatography and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy are compared. Emission ratios and emission factors are given for eight species that have not been reported previously for biomass burning of savanna in southern Africa (namely, dimethyl sulfide, methyl nitrate, five hydrocarbons, and particles with diameters from 0.1 to 3 microns). The emission factor that we measured for ammonia is lower by a factor of 4, and the emission factors for formaldehyde, hydrogen cyanide, and CN are greater by factors of about 3, 20, and 3 - 15, respectively, than previously reported values. The new emission factors are used to estimate annual emissions of these species from savanna fires in Africa and worldwide.

Sinha, Parikhit↗

NASA NTRS2008

Satellite-based Assessment of Fire Impacts on Ecosystem Changes in West Africa

Fires bum many vegetated regions of the world to a variety of degrees and frequency depending on season. Extensive biomass burning occurs in most parts of sub-Saharan Africa, posing great threat to ecosystem stability among other real and potential adverse impacts. In Africa, such landscape-scale fires are used for various agricultural purposes, including land clearing and hunting, although there may be a limited number of cases of fires ignited by accident or due to arson. Satellite remote sensing provides the most practical means of mapping fires, because of their sudden and aggressive nature coupled with the tremendous heat they generate. Recent advancements in satellite technology has enabled, not only the identification of fire locations, but also the measurement of fire radiative energy (FRE) release rate or power (FRP), which has been found to have a direct linear relationship with the rate of biomass combustion. A recent study based on FRP measurements from the Moderate-resolution imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) sensor aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites revealed that, among all the regions of the world where fires occur, African regions rank the highest in the intensity of biomass burning per unit area of land during the peak of the burning season. In this study, we will analyze the burning patterns in West Africa during the last several years and examine the extent of their impacts on the ecosystem dynamics, using a variety of satellite data. The study introduces a unique methodology that can be used to build up the knowledge base from which decision makers can obtain scientific information in fomulating policies for regulating biomass burning in the region.

Ichoku, Charles↗