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DOE OSTI2024

What is (quantitative) system dynamics modeling? Defining characteristics and the opportunities they create

A clear definition of system dynamics modeling can provide shared understanding and clarify the impact of the field. We introduce a set of characteristics that define quantitative system dynamics, selected to capture core philosophy, describe theoretical and practical principles, and apply to historical work but be flexible enough to remain relevant as the field progresses. The defining characteristics are: (1) models are based on causal feedback structure, (2) accumulations and delays are foundational, (3) models are equation-based, (4) concept of time is continuous, and (5) analysis focuses on feedback dynamics. We discuss the implications of these principles and use them to identify research opportunities in which the system dynamics field can advance. These research opportunities include causality, disaggregation, data science and AI, and contributing to scientific advancement. Progress in these areas has the potential to improve both the science and practice of system dynamics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

ADEPT: A Pedagogical Framework for Integrating Agentic AI with Deterministic Scientific Workflows

The integration of Large Language Models (LLMs) into scientific research promises to accelerate discovery, yet a significant gap remains between the dynamic reasoning of Artificial Intelligence (AI) agents and the static, deterministic nature of canonical scientific workflows. This paper introduces ADEPT (Agentic Discovery and Exploration Platform for Tools), a reference architecture and pedagogical framework explicitly designed to bridge this gap. ADEPT's primary mission is to provide a transparent, "glass-box" environment where researchers and engineers can learn to effectively wrap established scientific software (e.g., BLAST, Nextflow pipelines) and compose it into reliable, agent-driven workflows. We describe its modular, multi-server architecture, which leverages the Model Context Protocol (MCP) for tool serving, LangGraph for robust agentic orchestration, and a secure nsjail-based sandbox for safe code execution. By prioritizing architectural clarity, safety, and modularity, ADEPT serves as an extensible blueprint for building trustworthy AI-augmented systems and fosters the collaborative development necessary to responsibly employ agentic AI for science. We provide practical examples of how to adapt and extend this framework, highlighting its utility in workforce development and AI-readiness capabilities across research and development projects.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Short Term Plasticity for Artificial Neural Networks

Achieving efficient learning for AI systems was identified as a major challenge in the DOE's recently released, AI for Science , report. The human brain is capable of efficient and low-powered learning. It is likely that implementing brain-like principles will lead to more efficient AI systems. In this LDRD, I aim to contribute to this goal by creating a foundation for implementing and studying a brain phenomenon termed short term plasticity (STP) in spiking artificial neural networks within Sandia. First, data collected by the Allen Institute for Brain Science (AIBS) was analyzed to see if STP could be classified into types using the data collected. Although the data was inadequate at the time, AIBS has updated their database and created models that could be utilized in the future. Second, I began creating a software package to assess the ability of a Boltzmann machine utilizing STP to sample from national security data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Report of the 2025 Workshop on Next-Generation Ecosystems for Scientific Computing: Harnessing Community, Software, and AI for Cross-Disciplinary Team Science

This report summarizes insights from the 2025 Workshop on Next-Generation Ecosystems for Scientific Computing: Harnessing Community, Software, and AI for Cross-Disciplinary Team Science, which convened more than 40 experts from national laboratories, academia, industry, and community organizations to chart a path toward more powerful, sustainable, and collaborative scientific software ecosystems. To address urgent challenges at the intersection of high-performance computing (HPC), AI, and scientific software, participants envisioned agile, robust ecosystems built through socio-technical co-design—the intentional integration of social and technical components as interdependent parts of a unified strategy. This approach combines advances in AI, HPC, and software with new models for cross-disciplinary collaboration, training, and workforce development. Key recommendations include building modular, trustworthy AI-enabled scientific software systems; enabling scientific teams to integrate AI systems into their workflows while preserving human creativity, trust, and scientific rigor; and creating innovative training pipelines that keep pace with rapid technological change. Pilot projects were identified as near-term catalysts, with initial priorities focused on hybrid AI/HPC infrastructure, cross-disciplinary collaboration and pedagogy, responsible AI guidelines, and prototyping of public-private partnerships. This report presents a vision of next-generation ecosystems for scientific computing where AI, software, hardware, and human expertise are interwoven to drive discovery, expand access, strengthen the workforce, and accelerate scientific progress.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Workshop Report for Next-Gen AI for Proliferation Detection: Accelerating the Development and Use of Explainability Methods to Design AI Systems Suitable for Nonproliferation Mission Applications

Artificial intelligence (AI) promises powerful new capabilities in an expansive array of applications. One area is proliferation detection, where AI can provide transformative tools to achieve objectives currently inaccessible using conventional methods. In particular, AI affords the opportunity to use new indicators and process massive amounts of heterogeneous data that can increase sensitivity to proliferant activities and push proliferation detection to the earliest possible stages. However, existing AI tools are not ready to achieve such potential, falling short in regard to some important considerations involved in proliferation detection. One crucial aspect that requires improvement is the explainability of the most powerful AI algorithms (i.e., understanding how the algorithms actually arrive at their conclusions)-the lack of which prevents widespread adoption in national security missions. The Data Science and AI portfolio within the National Nuclear Security Administration's Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development is driving the development of next-generation AI for proliferation detection through the expertise and work of the national laboratories and partners in academia. The "Next-Gen AI for Proliferation Detection: Accelerating the Development and Use of Explainability Methods to Design AI Systems Suitable for Nonproliferation Mission Applications" workshop aimed to further this objective. The meeting was held virtually on Sept. 15-16, 2020 and included more than 170 participants, primarily from the national laboratories with additional contributions from university researchers and mission partners. Each day included a keynote presentation, four technical presentations about cutting-edge research in explainability, and a panel to explore considerations in applying explainability and developing AI systems that can accelerate the transition of emerging AI technologies among partners and end users to solve critical mission questions. This report summarizes the Next-Gen AI for Proliferation Detection workshop's content and findings.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2026

Site-decorated model for unconventional frustrated magnets: Ultranarrow phase crossover and two-dimensional spin reversal transition

Here, the site-decorated Ising model is introduced to advance the understanding and experimental realization of the recently discovered one-dimensional (1D) finite-temperature ultranarrow phase crossover in an external magnetic field, while mitigating the geometric complexities of traditional bond-decorated models. The unconventional frustration and physics are clarified by exactly mapping the 1D site-decorated Ising model in a magnetic field onto a zero-field bond-decorated 𝐽 1 −𝐽 2 Ising model with conventional geometrical frustration. Furthermore, although higher-dimensional Ising models in an external field remain unsolved exactly, an exact solution for a spin-reversal transition—driven by an exotic, hidden half-ice, half-fire state induced by site decoration—is derived. This transition, triggered by a slight variation in temperature or magnetic field—without changing its direction—even in the weak-field limit, offers a promising route toward energy-efficient applications such as data storage and processing. The results suggest that site decoration offers an avenue for materials and device design, particularly in systems such as mixed 𝑑−𝑓 compounds, optical lattices, and neural networks, calling for further studies with site-decorated Heisenberg models. In addition, the site-decorated model offers a rigorous test ground for artificial intelligence (AI) in science, as the analytic derivation of the present results was not only validated but also improved by a general-purpose large language model, inspiring the use of AI as scientific discoverer.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data readiness pipeline patterns for scientific AI at scale: Insights from climate, fusion, life sciences, and materials

This article examines how data readiness for AI principles apply to large scientific datasets used to train foundation models. We analyze archetypal workflows across four representative domains—climate, nuclear fusion, life sciences, and materials—to identify common preprocessing patterns and domain‐specific constraints. We introduce a two‐dimensional readiness model that combines canonical preprocessing patterns with a five‐level operational readiness scale, both tailored to high‐performance computing (HPC) environments. This construct helps outline key challenges in transforming large‐scale scientific data into formats suitable for scalable AI training. Together, these dimensions form a conceptual maturity matrix that characterizes scientific data readiness and guides infrastructure development toward standardized, cross‐domain support for scalable and reproducible AI for science. Finally, we evaluate this maturity matrix in the context of case studies including ClimaX (climate), AFLOW (materials), OpenFold (proteomics), and DIII‐D fusion disruption‐prediction workflows, from which we distill lessons learned and provide recommendations to guide practitioners in developing robust AI‐readiness pipelines. Finally, we discuss remaining cross‐cutting challenges that persist across scientific domains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Virtual Infrastructure Twins: Software Testing Platforms for Computing-Instrument Ecosystems

Science ecosystems are being built by federating computing systems and instruments located at geographically distributed sites over wide-area networks. These computing-instrument ecosystems are expected to support complex workflows that incorporate remote, automated AI-driven science experiments. Their realization, however, requires various designs to be explored and software components to be developed, in order to support the orchestration of distributed computations and experiments. It is often too expensive, infeasible, or disruptive for the entire ecosystem to be available during the typically long software development and testing periods. We propose a Virtual Infrastructure Twin (VIT) of the ecosystem that emulates its network and computing components, and incorporates its instrument software simulators. It provides a software environment nearly identical to the ecosystem to support early development and testing, and design space exploration. We present a brief overview of previous digital infrastructure twins that culminated in the VIT concept, including (i) the virtual science network environment for developing software-defined networking solutions, and (ii) the virtual federated science instrument environment for testing the federation software stack and remote instrument control software. We briefly describe VITs for Nion microscope steering and access to GPU systems.

Rao, Nageswara↗

DOE OSTI2023

Virtual Infrastructure Twins: Software Testing Platforms for Computing-Instrument Ecosystems

Rao, Nageswara↗

DOE OSTI2026

An agentic artificially intelligent X-ray scientist

Executing experimental tasks in both normal research laboratories and large-scale scientific facilities often requires extensive human supervision and remains a key challenge on the path to fully autonomous, artificial intelligence (AI)-driven science. Here we demonstrate a large language model-driven agent that autonomously performs X-ray sample alignment on a synchrotron beamline by planning actions, executing instrumental commands, interpreting observations and iterating towards experimental goals. Based on existing large language models with structured tool-use via the model context protocol, our AI X-ray scientist was guided and tested using an in-house-built virtual experimental setup that mirrors a six-circle diffractometer at an operational synchrotron beamline. The agentic workflow developed in the virtual environment was directly deployed on a real beamline, where it correctly identified reference reflections and determined the orientation matrix, an essential first step in any type of single-crystal scattering experiment. Our AI X-ray scientist responded effectively to unexpected experimental conditions, demonstrating adaptive problem-solving and readiness for addressing practical experimental situations. Our study provides a step towards autonomous operation across diverse experimental environments at large-scale scattering facilities.

Chen, Zhantao (ORCID:0000000319543868)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Autonomous reinforcement learning agents for improving predictions and observations of extreme climate events

Primary Focus Area: This proposal addresses focus area 2, “Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques.” Science Challenge: Extreme climate events associated with severe weather, coastal and inland flooding, droughts, heat waves and wildfires are expected to increase in frequency and severity in the future. Due to the complexity and chaotic behavior of the climate system, accurately predicting and observing extreme climate events requires a tremendous amount of human intervention to run predictive climate simulations and deploy measurement systems. Extreme events often unfold very quickly, leaving little time to iterate on simulations or re-position instruments. Through reinforcement learning, autonomous AI agents can be designed to make real-time decisions to characterize extreme climate events more efficiently through adaptive models and targeted observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Developing and Distributing HEP Software Stacks with Spack

The Computational Science and AI Directorate at Fermilab is using Spack to support the development efforts of a large number of scientific programmers, in many independent projects and experiments. While independent, these projects share many dependencies. They are typically under continuous and fairly rapid development. They have to support deployment on diverse hardware. This is a different context than is typical for the management of HPC software, where Spack was born. To support our community, we have created a model that enables users to develop code with greater efficiency than is possible with Spack’s current development facilities. In this talk we will present: - a brief introduction to the science we support (particle physics) - how the code we work with is naturally organized into several layers of packages - how we are using Spack to manage those layers - how we leverage the layering to provide efficient support for developers, using our Spack extension “MPD”. - some suggestions for changes or additions to Spack to make such work easier.

Knoepfel, Kyle J. [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Exploration of Climate Attractor Manifolds For Long-Term Predictability

Focal Area: This white paper responds to Focal Area 3. We seek to gain insight into decadal-scale climate predictability by applying novel manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques to the complex data produced by Earth System models (ESMs) such as E3SM. The associated portfolio of research activities leverages DOE’s asset mix of HPC platforms, climate expertise, climate simulation codes, and AI expertise. Science Challenge: Climate and climate models are dynamical systems exhibiting properties that are interpretable through chaos theory. The theory contains an important concept that is relevant to multi-decade-scale climate prediction: a chaotic attractor. While the space containing all the possible states of the Earth’s atmosphere and ocean, the possible weather, is large, the realized states tend to stay near the smaller-dimensioned attractor. This behavior is responsible for the “order behind the irregularity” [1] of climate phenomena. Climate change can be thought of as a change in the properties of the attractor, and predicting the climate over years to decades is equivalent to predicting how those properties will change. To date, the attractor has been a useful conceptual tool, but has not been amenable to direct characterization. A new development is the advent of efficient high-dimensional manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques, which permit a data-driven characterization of the ESM attractor and its probability distribution over weather states. Such a characterization would result in a natural dimensional reduction — a “non-linear Principal Components Analysis (PCA) adapted to climate simulation data” — leading to important advances in scenario-based long-term climate prediction, long-term prediction of water cycle extremes, ESM verification, inter-model comparison, and process model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Artificial intelligence models, photos, and data associated with the manuscript “Quantifying Streambed Grain Size, Uncertainty, and Hydrobiogeochemical Parameters Using Machine Learning Model YOLO” (v2)

This data package is associated with the manuscript “Quantifying Streambed Grain Size, Uncertainty, and Hydrobiogeochemical Parameters Using Machine Learning Model YOLO” published in Water Resources Research (Chen et al., 2024). This data package includes the training, validation, testing, and prediction data used by the artificial intelligence (AI) model for automated grain size and hydro-biogeochemistry quantification using streambed photos. The grain size data are extracted for each photo using You Look Only Once (YOLO), a pre-trained object detection model. This data package was originally published in October 2023. It was updated August 2025 (v2; new and modified files). File and folder names were not revised to indicate changes. See the change history section in the readme for more details. Please see flmd.csv for a list of all files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. Please see dd.csv for a data dictionary that defines the column headers of .csv files in the data package. This dataset is comprised of one data folder containing (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) readme; and (4) six subfolders. Subfolders 1 to 4 include the training, validation, testing, and prediction data. Subfolder 5_Summary includes the summary results of different combinations of training, validation, testing, and prediction data. Subfolder 6_SupplementalData includes additional data downloaded from public sources (Kaufman et al., 2023a; Kaufman et al., 2023b; Garefalakis et al., 2023; Mair et al., 2024; https://github.com/river-corridors-sfa/Geospatial_variables). In total, the data package includes 110 folders and 44,283 files. These files include 9,047 .jpg photos, 1 .png photo, 3 .tif photos; 26,639 photo labels and individual grain sizes and probability from AI (.txt); 8,447 grain size distribution data (.dat); and 126 CSV files for results summary, and 14 required metadata files (.xlsx). The summary CSV files contain 68 columns and approximately 2,200 rows that represent photo names, site locations, recording time, GPS coordinates, grains sizes (D10, D50, D60, and D84), number of grains, and additional hydro-biogeochemical data such as water depth, flow velocity, Manning’s coefficient, friction factor, hydraulic conductivity, permeability, streambed interstitial velocity magnitude, mass transfer rate, and nitrate uptake velocity. The photos were obtained from 75 sites in the Yakima River Basin and the Columbia River shorelines, and other associated data from samples and sensors obtained when the photos were taken are publicly available (Fulton et al. 2022; Grieger et al. 2023). All files are .csv, .txt, .dat, .jpg, or .pdf. We acknowledge the Yakama Nation as owners and caretakers of the lands where we collected some of these data. We thank the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The origin of passivity in aluminum-manganese solid solutions

In this work, the effects of manganese on the aqueous corrosion of aluminum-manganese alloys were investigated by experiments and atomistic simulations. Electrochemical measurements, x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, and atom probe tomography analysis indicate that manganese addition enhanced the corrosion resistance of aluminum without participating in the surface oxidation. Furthermore, the selective dissolution of manganese was believed to increase the free volume at the metal/oxide interface to facilitate the formation of a denser, thinner oxide layer with closer to stoichiometry composition. Atomistic simulations showed that the oxide layer compactness increased, and defect density decreased with increasing free volume content in Al, resulting in enhanced barrier characteristics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Optimization of Catalysis with In-Context Learning

Large language models (LLMs) can perform accurate classification with zero or few examples through in-context learning (ICL), allowing the model to observe query-relevant examples at inference time and eliminating the need for additional weight updates to generalize beyond its original training data. We extend this capability to regression with uncertainty estimation using frozen LLMs (e.g., GPT-4o, Gemini), enabling Bayesian optimization (BO) in natural language without explicit model training or feature engineering. We apply this to materials discovery by representing materials as synthesis and testing procedures for use in natural language prompts. This Bayesian, design-first approach prioritizes optimization toward target material properties before detailed characterization, in contrast to conventional experimental workflows that often emphasize characterization of suboptimal materials. On benchmarks like aqueous solubility and oxidative coupling of methane (OCM), BO-ICL matches or outperforms Gaussian processes. In live experiments on the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, BO-ICL identifies multimetallic catalysts that approach equilibrium CO yield within 6 and 10 iterations from a pool of 3,700 and 360,000 candidates, respectively. Our method redefines materials representation and accelerates discovery, with broad applications across catalysis, materials science, and AI.

Calibration↗

DOE OSTI2025

Structural constraint integration in a generative model for the discovery of quantum materials

Billions of organic molecules have been computationally generated, yet functional inorganic materials remain scarce due to limited data and structural complexity. Here, in this work, we introduce Structural Constraint Integration in a GENerative model (SCIGEN), a framework that enforces geometric constraints, such as honeycomb and kagome lattices, within diffusion-based generative models to discover stable quantum materials candidates. SCIGEN enables conditional sampling from the original distribution, preserving output validity while guiding structural motifs. This approach generates ten million inorganic compounds with Archimedean and Lieb lattices, over 10% of which pass multistage stability screening. High-throughput density functional theory calculations on 26,000 candidates shows over 95% convergence and 53% structural stability. A graph neural network classifier detects magnetic ordering in 41% of relaxed structures. Furthermore, we synthesize and characterize two predicted materials, TiPd 0.22 Bi 0.88 and Ti 0.5 Pd 1.5 Sb, which display paramagnetic and diamagnetic behaviour, respectively. Our results indicate that SCIGEN provides a scalable path for generating quantum materials guided by lattice geometry.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Benchmarking universal machine learning interatomic potentials for rapid analysis of inelastic neutron scattering data

The accurate calculation of phonons and vibrational spectra remains a significant challenge, requiring highly precise evaluations of interatomic forces. Traditional methods based on the quantum description of the electronic structure, while widely used, are computationally expensive and demand substantial expertise. Emerging universal machine learning interatomic potentials (uMLIPs) offer a transformative alternative by employing pre-trained neural network surrogates to predict interatomic forces directly from atomic coordinates. This approach dramatically reduces computation time and minimizes the need for technical knowledge. In this paper, we produce a phonon database comprising nearly 5000 inorganic crystals to benchmark the performance of several leading uMLIPs. We further assess these models in real-world applications by using them to analyze experimental inelastic neutron scattering data collected on a variety of materials. Through detailed comparisons, we identify the strengths and limitations of these uMLIPs, providing insights into their accuracy and suitability for fast calculations of phonons and related properties, as well as the potential for real-time interpretation of neutron scattering spectra. Our findings highlight how the rapid advancement of AI in science is revolutionizing experimental research and data analysis.

inelastic neutron scattering↗