Land Use and Land Cover Change Strongly Modulates Land‐Atmosphere Coupling and Warm‐Season Precipitation Over the Central United States in CESM2‐VR
Not Available
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
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Response of the upper ocean to northeast Pacific atmospheric rivers under climate change
Not Available
Shields, Christine A. (ORCID:0000000344811377)↗
Mechanisms of Dynamic Near-Wake Modulation of a Utility-Scale Wind Turbine
The current study uses large eddy simulations to investigate the transient response of a utility-scale wind turbine wake to dynamic changes in atmospheric and operational conditions, as observed in previous field-scale measurements. Most wind turbine wake investigations assume quasi-steady conditions, but real wind turbines operate in a highly stochastic atmosphere, and their operation (e.g. blade pitch, yaw angle) changes constantly in response. Furthermore, dynamic control strategies have been recently proposed to optimize wind farm power generation and longevity. Therefore, improved understanding of dynamic wake behaviours is essential. First, changes in blade pitch are investigated and the wake expansion response is found to display hysteresis as a result of flow inertia. The time scales of the wake response to different pitch rates are quantified. Next, changes in wind direction with different time scales are explored. Under short time scales, the wake deflection is in the opposite direction of that observed under quasi-steady conditions. Finally, yaw changes are implemented at different rates, and the maximum inverse wake deflection and time scale are quantified, showing a clear dependence on yaw rate. To gain further physical understanding of the mechanism behind the inverse wake deflection, the streamwise vorticity in different parts of the wake is quantified. The results of this study provide guidance for the design of advanced wake flow control algorithms. The lag in wake response observed for both blade pitch and yaw changes shows that proposed dynamic control strategies must implement turbine operational changes with a time scale of the order of the rotor time scale or slower.
flow-structure interactions↗
Uncertainty in Reconstructing Paleo‐Elevation of the Antarctic Ice Sheet From Temperature‐Sensitive Ice Core Records
Paleotemperature reconstructions from ice cores are mixed signals of changes in climate and ice‐surface elevation. A common, temperature‐based paleoaltimetry method suggests these signals can be disentangled by comparing two proxy locations with similar climates. The difference between the records is assumed to be due to elevation, which is estimated by scaling the temperature difference by a lapse rate. We investigate the uncertainty associated with this approach using a case study of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum. From an ensemble of climate simulations, we extract modeled temperatures at locations of real ice cores. We find uncertainty on the order of hundreds of meters that results from spatial heterogeneity in non‐adiabatic temperature change, which itself stems in part from elevation‐induced atmospheric circulation change. Our findings suggest that caution is needed when interpreting temperature‐based paleoaltimetry results for ice sheets.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Synergistic Retrieval of Temperature and Humidity Profiles from Space-Based and Ground-Based Infrared Sounders Using an Optimal Estimation Method
The atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles of the troposphere are generally measured by radiosondes and satellites, which are essential for analyzing and predicting weather. Nevertheless, the insufficient observation frequencies and low detection accuracy of the boundary layer restricts the description of atmospheric state changes by the temperature and humidity profiles. Therefore, this work focus on retrieving the temperature and humidity profiles using observations of the FengYun-4 (FY-4) Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder (GIIRS) combined with ground-based infrared spectral observations from the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI), which are more accurate than space-based individual retrieval results and have a wider effective retrieval range than ground-based individual retrieval results. Based on the synergistic observations, which are made by matching the space-based and ground-based data with those of different spatial and temporal resolutions, a synergistic retrieval process is proposed to obtain the temperature and humidity profiles at a high frequency under clear-sky conditions based on the optimal estimation method. In this research, using the line-by-line radiative transfer model (LBLRTM) as the forward model for observing simulations, a retrieval experiment was carried out in Qingdao, China, where an AERI is situated. Taking radiosonde data as a reference for comparing the retrieval results of the temperature and humidity profiles of the troposphere, the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the synergistic retrieval algorithm below 400 hPa is within 2 K for temperature and within 12% for relative humidity. Compared with the GIIRS individual retrieval, the RMSE of temperature and relative humidity for the synergistic method is reduced by 0.13–1.5 K and 2.7–4.4% at 500 hPa, and 0.13–2.1 K and 2.5–7.2% at 900 hPa. Moreover, the forecast index (FI) calculated from the retrieval results shows reasonable consistency with the FIs calculated from the ERA5 reanalysis and from radiosonde data. The synergistic retrieval results have higher temporal resolution than space-based retrieval results and can reflect the changes in the atmospheric state more accurately. Overall, the results demonstrated the promising potential of the synergistic retrieval of temperature and humidity profiles at high accuracy and high temporal resolution under clear-sky conditions from FY-4/GIIRS and AERI.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Contributions of extreme and non-extreme precipitation to California precipitation seasonality changes under warming
Changes in seasonality of extreme precipitation have important implications for flood and fire hazards and water resources. Here we explore the contributions of extreme and non-extreme precipitation in the sharpened wet season in California under warming and the underlying mechanisms. Modeling evidence shows that increased extreme precipitation due to enhanced extreme intensity and more extreme days dominates the wetter winter, while decreased non-extreme precipitation due to fewer wet days induces the dryer spring and fall. Moisture budget analysis indicates that increased moisture dominates the extreme precipitation increase in winter, while weakened circulation offsets the moisture increase, resulting in no changes in spring and fall. The sharpened seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation via both dynamic and thermodynamic effects is consistent with the seasonality changes in atmospheric river days and is mainly attributed to the seasonality changes in the number of extreme days rather than the intensity during extreme days.
Dong, Lu↗
Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part I: Dynamical Downscaling
Abstract New simulations at 12-km grid spacing with the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) Model nested in the MPI Earth System Model (ESM) are used to quantify possible changes in wind power generation potential as a result of global warming. Annual capacity factors (CF; measures of electrical power production) computed by applying a power curve to hourly wind speeds at wind turbine hub height from this simulation are also used to illustrate the pitfalls in seeking to infer changes in wind power generation directly from low-spatial-resolution and time-averaged ESM output. WRF-derived CF are evaluated using observed daily CF from operating wind farms. The spatial correlation coefficient between modeled and observed mean CF is 0.65, and the root-mean-square error is 5.4 percentage points. Output from the MPI-WRF Model chain also captures some of the seasonal variability and the probability distribution of daily CF at operating wind farms. Projections of mean annual CF (CF A ) indicate no change to 2050 in the southern Great Plains and Northeast. Interannual variability of CF A increases in the Midwest, and CF A declines by up to 2 percentage points in the northern Great Plains. The probability of wind droughts (extended periods with anomalously low production) and wind bonus periods (high production) remains unchanged over most of the eastern United States. The probability of wind bonus periods exhibits some evidence of higher values over the Midwest in the 2040s, whereas the converse is true over the northern Great Plains. Significance Statement Wind energy is playing an increasingly important role in low-carbon-emission electricity generation. It is a “weather dependent” renewable energy source, and thus changes in the global atmosphere may cause changes in regional wind power production (PP) potential. We use PP data from operating wind farms to demonstrate that regional simulations exhibit skill in capturing actual power production. Projections to the middle of this century indicate that over most of North America east of the Rocky Mountains annual expected PP is largely unchanged, as is the probability of extended periods of anomalously high or low production. Any small declines in annual PP are of much smaller magnitude than changes due to technological innovation over the last two decades.
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
Investigating Future Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Near–Surface Wind Speed Changes Related to Surface Roughness Using the Community Earth System Model
The Arctic is undergoing a pronounced and rapid transformation in response to changing greenhouse gasses, including reduction in sea ice extent and thickness. There are also projected increases in near-surface Arctic wind. This study addresses how the winds trends may be driven by changing surface roughness and/or stability in different Arctic regions and seasons, something that has not yet been thoroughly investigated. We analyze 50 experiments from the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) Large Ensemble and five experiments using CESM2 with an artificially decreased sea ice roughness to match that of the open ocean. We find that with a smoother surface there are higher mean wind speeds and slower mean ice speeds in the autumn, winter, and spring. The artificially reduced surface roughness also strongly impacts the wind speed trends in autumn and winter, and we find that atmospheric stability changes are also important contributors to driving wind trends in both experiments. In contrast to the clear impacts on winds, the sea ice mean state and trends are statistically indistinguishable, suggesting that near-surface winds are not major drivers of Arctic sea ice loss. Two major results of this work are: (a) the near-surface wind trends are driven by changes in both surface roughness and near-surface atmospheric stability that are themselves changing from sea ice loss, and (b) the sea ice mean state and trends are driven by the overall warming trend due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions and not significantly impacted by coupled feedbacks with the surface winds.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Potential environmental effects of deepwater floating offshore wind energy facilities
Over the last few decades, the offshore wind energy industry has expanded its scope from turbines mounted on fixed platforms driven into the seafloor and standing in less than 50 meters of water, to floating turbines moored in 120 meters of water, to prospecting the development of floating turbines moored in ~1000 meters of water. Since there are few prototype turbines and mooring systems of these deepwater, floating offshore wind energy facilities (OWFs) currently deployed, their effects on the marine environment are largely unknown. Using the available scientific literature concerning appropriate analogs, this study provides the first synthesis of the potential environmental effects of deepwater, floating OWFs during operation, as well as potential mitigation measures to some of the risks. Potential effects we identify and evaluate include changes to atmospheric and oceanic dynamics, electromagnetic fields, habitat alterations, noise, structural impediments, and changes to water quality that could affect a variety of marine species across trophic levels. Our synthesis suggests that many of these potential effects could be mitigated to pose a low risk to the marine environment if developers adopt appropriate mitigation strategies and best-practice protocols. This review takes the necessary first steps in summarizing the available information on the potential environmental effects of deepwater, floating OWFs and can serve as a valuable reference document for marine scientists and engineers, the energy industry, permitting agencies and regulators of the energy industry, project developers, and concerned stakeholders such as coastal residents, conservationists, and fisheries.
Farr, Hayley K.↗
Clumped isotope constraints on changes in latest Pleistocene hydroclimate in the northwestern Great Basin: Lake Surprise, California
Abstract During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and subsequent deglaciation, the Great Basin in the southwestern United States was covered by numerous extensive closed-basin lakes, in stark contrast with the predominately arid climate observed today. This transition from lakes in the Late Pleistocene to modern aridity implies large changes in the regional water balance. Whether these changes were driven by increased precipitation rates due to changes in atmospheric dynamics, decreased evaporation rates resulting from temperature depression and summer insolation changes, or some combination of the two remains uncertain. The factors contributing to these large-scale changes in hydroclimate are critical to resolve, given that this region is poised to undergo future anthropogenic-forced climate changes with large uncertainties in model simulations for the 21st century. Furthermore, there are ambiguous constraints on the magnitude and even the sign of changes in key hydroclimate variables between the Last Glacial Maximum and the present day in both proxy reconstructions and climate model analyses of the region. Here we report thermodynamically derived estimates of changes in temperature, precipitation, and evaporation rates, as well as the isotopic composition of lake water, using clumped isotope data from an ancient lake in the northwestern Great Basin, Lake Surprise (California). Compared to modern climate, mean annual air temperature at Lake Surprise was 4.7 °C lower during the Last Glacial Maximum, with decreased evaporation rates and similar precipitation rates to modern. During the mid-deglacial period, the growth of Lake Surprise implied that the lake hydrologic budget briefly departed from steady state. Our reconstructions indicate that this growth took place rapidly, while the subsequent lake regression took place over several thousand years. Using models for precipitation and evaporation constrained from clumped isotope results, we determine that the disappearance of Lake Surprise coincided with a moderate increase in lake temperature, along with increasing evaporation rates outpacing increasing precipitation rates. Concomitant analysis of proxy data and climate model simulations for the Last Glacial Maximum are used to provide a robust means to understand past climate change, and by extension, predict how current hydroclimates may respond to expected future climate forcings. We suggest that an expansion of this analysis to more basins across a larger spatial scale could provide valuable insight into proposed climate forcings, and aid in climate model process depiction. Ultimately, our analysis highlights the importance of temperature-driven evaporation as a mechanism for lake growth and retreat in this region.
Geology↗
Trends and Drivers of Terrestrial Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide: An Overview of the TRENDY Project
The terrestrial biosphere plays a major role in the global carbon cycle, and there is a recognized need for regularly updated estimates of land-atmosphere exchange at regional and global scales. An international ensemble of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), known as the “Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide” (TRENDY) project, quantifies land biophysical exchange processes and biogeochemistry cycles in support of the annual Global Carbon Budget assessments and the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes, phase 2 project. DGVMs use a common protocol and set of driving data sets. A set of factorial simulations allows attribution of spatio-temporal changes in land surface processes to three primary global change drivers: changes in atmospheric CO 2 , climate change and variability, and Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC). Here, we describe the TRENDY project, benchmark DGVM performance using remote-sensing and other observational data, and present results for the contemporary period. Simulation results show a large global carbon sink in natural vegetation over 2012–2021, attributed to the CO 2 fertilization effect (3.8 ± 0.8 PgC/yr) and climate (–0.58 ± 0.54 PgC/yr). Forests and semi-arid ecosystems contribute approximately equally to the mean and trend in the natural land sink, and semi-arid ecosystems continue to dominate interannual variability. The natural sink is offset by net emissions from LULCC (–1.6 ± 0.5 PgC/yr), with a net land sink of 1.7 ± 0.6 PgC/yr. Despite the largest gross fluxes being in the tropics, the largest net land-atmosphere exchange is simulated in the extratropical regions.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
How Could Future Climate Conditions Reshape a Devastating Lake‐Effect Snow Storm?
Abstract Lake‐effect snow (LES) storms, characterized by heavy convective precipitation downwind of large lakes, pose significant coastal hazards with severe socioeconomic consequences in vulnerable areas. In this study, we investigate how devastating LES storms could evolve in the future by employing a storyline approach, using the LES storm that occurred over Buffalo, New York, in November 2022 as an example. Using a Pseudo‐Global Warming method with a fully three‐dimensional two‐way coupled lake‐land‐atmosphere modeling system at a cloud‐resolving 4 km resolution, we show a 14% increase in storm precipitation under the end‐century warming. This increase in precipitation is accompanied by a transition in the precipitation form from predominantly snowfall to nearly equal parts snowfall and rainfall. Through additional simulations with isolated atmospheric and lake warming, we discerned that the warmer lake contributes to increased storm precipitation through enhanced evaporation while the warmer atmosphere contributes to the increase in the storm's rainfall, at the expense of snowfall. More importantly, this shift from snowfall to rainfall was found to nearly double the area experiencing another winter hazard, Rain‐on‐Snow. Our study provides a plausible future storyline for the Buffalo LES storm, focusing on understanding the intricate interplay between atmospheric and lake warming in shaping the future dynamics of LES storms. It emphasizes the importance of accurately capturing the changing lake‐atmosphere dynamics during LES storms under future warming.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Distinct Gas-Particle Partitioning and Viscosity Characteristics of Secondary Organic Aerosols Derived from α-Pinene versus Ocimene
Secondary organic aerosols (SOA) have complex, multicomponent composition that controls particle viscosity and gas-particle partitioning, key factors to their atmospheric evolution. This study investigates the chemical composition, volatility and viscosity of SOA formed by ozonolysis of cyclic α-pinene (PSOA) and acyclic ocimene (OSOA) monoterpenes. Using Temperature-Programmed Desorption combined with Direct Analysis in Real-Time ionization and High-Resolution Mass Spectrometry, we determined the molecular composition and saturation mass concentration of individual SOA constituents. These data enabled gas-particle partitioning and viscosity estimates under varied atmospheric conditions. PSOA, composed of higher molecular weight and less oxidized species, shows higher condensability and viscosity under high total organic mass (tOM) loadings. Here, in contrast, OSOA, consisting of more oxidized, lower molecular weight species, exhibits greater sensitivity to tOM, with viscosity increasing significantly upon dilution. Poke-flow experiments support this trend, indicating that OSOA undergoes more dynamic compositional and phase changes during atmospheric aging. These observations reveal distinct dynamic trends in the atmospheric transformations and reactivity of SOA from cyclic and acyclic monoterpenes, with the latter showing greater compositional changes during aging that alter viscosity and diffusion. This highlights the importance of incorporating such dynamic transformations into atmospheric models to improve predictions of SOA atmospheric loadings, lifetimes, and impacts.
cyclic and acyclic monoterpenes↗
The influence of increasing atmospheric CO 2 , temperature, and vapor pressure deficit on seawater-induced tree mortality
We report increasing seawater exposure is killing coastal trees globally, with expectations of accelerating mortality with rising sea levels. However, the impact of concomitant changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration, temperature, and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) on seawater-induced tree mortality is uncertain. We examined the mechanisms of seawater-induced mortality under varying climate scenarios using a photosynthetic gain and hydraulic cost optimization model validated against observations in a mature stand of Sitka-spruce (Picea sitchensis) trees in the Pacific Northwest, USA, that were dying from recent seawater exposure. The simulations matched well with observations of photosynthesis, transpiration, nonstructural carbohydrates concentrations, leaf water potential, the percentage loss of xylem conductivity, and stand-level mortality rates. The simulations suggest that seawater-induced mortality could decrease by ~16.7% with increasing atmospheric CO 2 levels due to reduced risk of carbon starvation. Conversely, rising VPD could increase mortality by ~5.6% because of increasing risk of hydraulic failure. Across all scenarios, seawater-induced mortality was driven by hydraulic failure in the first two years after seawater exposure began, with carbon starvation becoming more important in subsequent years. Changing CO 2 and climate appear unlikely to have a significant impact on coastal tree mortality under rising sea levels.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Rising atmospheric moisture escalates the future impact of atmospheric rivers in the Antarctic climate system
Abstract Despite their relative rarity, atmospheric rivers are key contributors to the surface mass balance of Antarctica. However, the future role of atmospheric rivers in modulating Antarctic sea-level contributions is a major area of uncertainty. Here, we leverage high-resolution climate simulations to show that Antarctic atmospheric rivers are highly sensitive to future increases in atmospheric moisture, leading to a doubling of atmospheric river frequencies and 2.5 × increase in precipitation from 2066–2100 under present-day thresholds for atmospheric river detection. However, future precipitation impacts are critically dependent on the detection threshold: accounting for moisture increases in the threshold produces smaller, regional changes in atmospheric river frequency, primarily resulting from an eastward shift in the polar jet maximum wind speeds. Our results underscore the importance of using large ensembles to quantify Antarctic atmospheric river responses to variability in projected moisture, which may not be captured when using only a few ensemble members.
Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
Atmospheric Feedbacks Reverse the Sensitivity of Modeled Photosynthesis to Stomatal Function
Stomata mediate fluxes of carbon and water between terrestrial plants and the atmosphere. These fluxes are governed by stomatal function and can be modulated in many Earth system models by an empirical parameter within the calculation of stomatal conductance, the stomatal slope (𝑔 1𝑀 ). Intuitively, 𝑔 1𝑀 represents the marginal water cost of carbon, relating it to the emergent plant property of water use efficiency. Observations show that 𝑔 1𝑀 can range widely across and within plant types in varying environments, and this distribution of 𝑔 1𝑀 is not captured within Earth system models which represent each plant type with a single 𝑔 1𝑀 value. Here we examine how 𝑔 1𝑀 influences photosynthesis using coupled Earth system model simulations by perturbing 𝑔 1𝑀 to observed 5th and 95th percentiles for each plant type. We find that high 𝑔 1𝑀 reduces photosynthesis nearly everywhere, while low 𝑔 1𝑀 has regionally dependent responses. Under fixed atmospheric conditions, low 𝑔 1𝑀 increases photosynthesis in the Amazon and central North America but decreases photosynthesis in boreal Canada. These responses reverse when the atmosphere responds interactively due to spatially differing sensitivity to increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit. Choice of 𝑔 1𝑀 also influences photosynthetic response to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), with lower and higher 𝑔1𝑀 modifying total global response to elevated 2x preindustrial CO 2 by +6.4% and −9.6%, respectively. Our work demonstrates that atmospheric feedbacks are critical for determining the photosynthetic response to 𝑔 1𝑀 assumptions and some regions are particularly sensitive to choice of 𝑔 1𝑀 .
Liu, Amy X. [University of Washington, Seattle, WA↗
Enhanced Atmospheric Research at the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) (Final Report)
The Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) was an international scientific expedition into the central Arctic sea ice to study the changing atmosphere-ice-ocean system and its key physical, chemical, and biological processes in a way that will support improved understanding and modeling of Arctic climate. The US Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Research Measurement (ARM) Program operated its second ARM Mobile Facility (AMF2) as a major contribution to the expedition, and the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program supported this project to maximize the success of DOE’s involvement in MOSAiC. This project has enabled the successful collection of data through support of field operations plans, in-field operational implementation, oversight of real-time data quality, and representing DOE’s interests within the broader international MOSAiC endeavor. The project has promoted scientific research by facilitating and leading a number of efforts to develop value-added products that will support research, including products related to aerosol properties, trace gases, cloud properties, snowfall, the surface energy budget, and a merged product designed for model assessment. These products and related analyses have also contributed to numerous scientific publications on related themes as well as direct model evaluation. Lastly, the project has engaged in a great deal of communication and outreach activities that help to publicize and promote both MOSAiC and DOE’s specific contribution to a broad audience that includes the scientific community, program management, policy makers, and the general public.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Ultraviolet Photooxidation of Smectite-Bound Fe(II) and Implications for the Origin of Martian Nontronites
Clay minerals detected with orbital and in situ instruments in ancient Martian terrains constrain Mars' climate and aqueous alteration history. Early in its history, Mars experienced an atmospheric redox change and iron-bearing clay minerals may preserve the effects of that transition. Ferrous smectites, the thermodynamically predicted product of chemical weathering of basalts under anoxic conditions, may have undergone oxidation by exposure to chemical oxidants in the atmosphere or regolith, or by direct photooxidation at the surface. To assess these potential oxidation pathways, ferrous trioctahedral smectites of varying initial iron content were synthesized and subjected to oxidation by ultraviolet (UV) irradiation. Experimental UV irradiation under an anoxic atmosphere equivalent to approximately 7 years of flux on the Martian surface caused partial oxidation of smectite-bound Fe (Fe 3+ /ΣFe = 16–18%) and octahedral sheet contraction. Metal-OH vibrational bands in visible/near infrared (VNIR) reflectance spectra of oxidized smectites changed in band depth and asymmetry with higher iron content. X-ray diffraction patterns of UV irradiated samples indicate the formation of a mixed di- and trioctahedral smectite or a secondary nontronite phase, possibly on the surfaces of higher iron content smectites. Furthermore, these experiments suggest that UV irradiation is able to oxidize structurally bound iron in smectites without the presence of other chemical oxidants. Photooxidation may have influenced the mineralogy, both syndepositionally and postdepositionally, of Martian alteration assemblages formed near the surface and this process needs not be limited to one part of their formation history.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗