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DOE OSTI2022

Inference-Optimized AI and High Performance Computing for Gravitational Wave Detection at Scale

We introduce an ensemble of artificial intelligence models for gravitational wave detection that we trained in the Summit supercomputer using 32 nodes, equivalent to 192 NVIDIA V100 GPUs, within 2 h. Once fully trained, we optimized these models for accelerated inference using NVIDIA TensorRT. We deployed our inference-optimized AI ensemble in the ThetaGPU supercomputer at Argonne Leadership Computer Facility to conduct distributed inference. Using the entire ThetaGPU supercomputer, consisting of 20 nodes each of which has 8 NVIDIA A100 Tensor Core GPUs and 2 AMD Rome CPUs, our NVIDIA TensorRT-optimized AI ensemble processed an entire month of advanced LIGO data (including Hanford and Livingston data streams) within 50 s. Our inference-optimized AI ensemble retains the same sensitivity of traditional AI models, namely, it identifies all known binary black hole mergers previously identified in this advanced LIGO dataset and reports no misclassifications, while also providing a 3X inference speedup compared to traditional artificial intelligence models. We used time slides to quantify the performance of our AI ensemble to process up to 5 years worth of advanced LIGO data. In this synthetically enhanced dataset, our AI ensemble reports an average of one misclassification for every month of searched advanced LIGO data. We also present the receiver operating characteristic curve of our AI ensemble using this 5 year long advanced LIGO dataset. This approach provides the required tools to conduct accelerated, AI-driven gravitational wave detection at scale.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2012

Seeking Counterparts to Advanced LIGO/Virgo Transients with Swift

Binary neutron star (NS) mergers are among the most promising astrophysical sources of gravitational wave emission for Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo, expected to be operational in 2015 . Finding electromagnetic counterparts to these signals will be essential to placing them in an astronomical context. The Swift satellite carries a sensitive X-ray telescope (XRT), and can respond to target-of-opportunity requests within 1-2 hours, and so is uniquely poised to find the X-ray counterparts to LIGO / Virgo triggers. Assuming NS mergers are the progenitors of short gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), some percentage of LIGO/Virgo triggers will be accompanied by X-ray band afterglows that are brighter than 10(exp -12) ergs/s/sq cm in the XRT band one day after the trigger time. We find that a soft X-ray transient of this flux is bright enough to be extremely rare, and so could be confidently associated with even a moderately localized GW signal. We examine two possible search strategies with the Swift XRT to find bright transients in LIGO/Virgo error boxes. In the first strategy, XRT could search a volume of space with a approx.100 Mpc radius by observing approx 30 galaxies over the course of a day, with sufficient depth to observe the expected X-ray afterglow. For an extended LIGO / Virgo horizon distance, the XRT could employ very short 100 s exposures to cover an area of approx 35 square degrees in about a day, and still be sensitive enough to image GW discovered GRB afterglows. These strategies demonstrate that the high X-ray luminosity of short GRBs and the relatively low X-ray transient background combine to make high confidence discoveries of X-ray band counterparts to GW triggers possible, though challenging, with current satellite facilities.

Kanner, Jonah↗

DOE OSTI2020

Testing claims of the GW170817 binary neutron star inspiral affecting β-decay rates

On August 17, 2017, the first gravitational wave signal from a binary neutron star inspiral (GW170817) was detected by Advanced LIGO and Advanced VIRGO. Here we present radioactive β-decay rates of three independent sources 44 Ti, 60 Co and 137 Cs, monitored during the same period by a precision experiment designed to investigate the decay of long-lived radioactive sources. We do not find any significant correlations between decay rates in a 5 h time interval following the GW170817 observation. This contradicts a previous claim published in this journal of an observed 2.5σ Pearson Correlation between fluctuations in the number of observed decays from two β-decaying isotopes ( 32 Si and 36 Cl) in the same time interval. By correcting for the choice of an arbitrary time interval, we find no evidence of a correlation above 1.5σ confidence. In addition, we argue that such analyses on correlations in arbitrary time intervals should always correct for the so-called Look-Elsewhere effect by quoting the global significance.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

A search for optical and near-infrared counterparts of the compact binary merger GW190814

Here, we report on our observing campaign of the compact binary merger GW190814, detected by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors on 2019 August 14. This signal has the best localization of any observed gravitational wave (GW) source, with a 90 per cent probability area of 18.5 deg 2 , and an estimated distance of ≈240 Mpc. We obtained wide-field observations with the Deca-Degree Optical Transient Imager (DDOTI) covering 88 per cent of the probability area down to a limiting magnitude of w = 19.9 AB. Nearby galaxies within the high probability region were targeted with the Lowell Discovery Telescope (LDT), whereas promising candidate counterparts were characterized through multicolour photometry with the Reionization and Transients InfraRed (RATIR) and spectroscopy with the Gran Telescopio de Canarias (GTC). We use our optical and near-infrared limits in conjunction with the upper limits obtained by the community to constrain the possible electromagnetic counterparts associated with the merger. A gamma-ray burst seen along its jet’s axis is disfavoured by the multiwavelength data set, whereas the presence of a burst seen at larger viewing angles is not well constrained. Although our observations are not sensitive to a kilonova similar to AT2017gfo, we can rule out high-mass (>0.1 M ⊙ ) fast-moving (mean velocity ≥0.3c) wind ejecta for a possible kilonova associated with this merger.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Numerical relativity simulations of the neutron star merger GW190425: microphysics and mass ratio effects

ABSTRACT GW190425 was the second gravitational wave (GW) signal compatible with a binary neutron star (BNS) merger detected by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. Since no electromagnetic counterpart was identified, whether the associated kilonova was too dim or the localization area too broad is still an open question. We simulate 28 BNS mergers with the chirp mass of GW190425 and mass ratio 1 ≤ q ≤ 1.67, using numerical-relativity simulations with finite-temperature, composition dependent equations of state (EOS) and neutrino radiation. The energy emitted in GWs is $\lesssim 0.083\mathrm{\, M_\odot }c^2$ with peak luminosity of 1.1–$2.4\times ~10^{58}/(1+q)^2\, {\rm {erg \, s^{-1}}}$. Dynamical ejecta and disc mass range between 5 × 10−6–10−3 and 10−5–$0.1 \mathrm{\, M_\odot }$, respectively. Asymmetric mergers, especially with stiff EOSs, unbind more matter and form heavier discs compared to equal mass binaries. The angular momentum of the disc is 8–$10\mathrm{\, M_\odot }~GM_{\rm {disc}}/c$ over three orders of magnitude in Mdisc. While the nucleosynthesis shows no peculiarity, the simulated kilonovae are relatively dim compared with GW170817. For distances compatible with GW190425, AB magnitudes are always dimmer than ∼20 mag for the B, r, and K bands, with brighter kilonovae associated to more asymmetric binaries and stiffer EOSs. We suggest that, even assuming a good coverage of GW190425’s sky location, the kilonova could hardly have been detected by present wide-field surveys and no firm constraints on the binary parameters or EOS can be argued from the lack of the detection.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

GW190521: A Binary Black Hole Merger with a Total Mass of 150 M ⊙

On May 21, 2019 at 03:02:29 UTC Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo observed a short duration gravitational-wave signal, GW190521, with a three-detector network signal-to-noise ratio of 14.7, and an estimated false-alarm rate of 1 in 4900 yr using a search sensitive to generic transients. If GW190521 is from a quasicircular binary inspiral, then the detected signal is consistent with the merger of two black holes with masses of 8 5 - 14 + 21 M ⊙ and 6 6 - 18 + 17 M ⊙ (90% credible intervals). We infer that the primary black hole mass lies within the gap produced by (pulsational) pair-instability supernova processes, with only a 0.32% probability of being below 65 M ⊙ . We calculate the mass of the remnant to be 14 2 - 16 + 28 M ⊙ , which can be considered an intermediate mass black hole (IMBH). The luminosity distance of the source is 5.3 - 2.6 + 2.4 Gpc , corresponding to a redshift of 0.82 - 0.34 + 0.28 . The inferred rate of mergers similar to GW190521 is 0.13 - 0.11 + 0.30 Gpc - 3 yr - 1 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Chasing Gamma-Ray Signals from Binary Neutron Star Coalescences with the Cherenkov Telescope Array: Prospects and Observing Strategies

The detection of gravitational waves (GWs) from a binary neutron star (BNS) merger by Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo (GW170817), together with its electromagnetic counterpart, the short gamma-ray burst GRB 170817A, heralded the birth of multimessenger astronomy. The detection of TeV emission from GRBs motivates follow-up observations with the Cherenkov Telescope Array Observatory (CTAO), which is ideal for detecting such signals due to its unprecedented sensitivity, rapid response, and wide-field survey capabilities. The aim of this work is to evaluate GeV–TeV GW follow-up strategies for CTAO using a multistep simulation pipeline and to estimate the expected rate of joint GW–GRB detections during observing run O5. Using a simulated sample of BNS systems with corresponding GW detections, gamma-ray emission is simulated through phenomenological prescriptions based on the observed population of short GRBs, including off-axis jet scenarios. CTAO observations are simulated to account for instrument response, sky tiling strategies, integration times, and varying observing conditions. Strategies with variable and constant integration times are investigated. We find that, via an optimized follow-up strategy, about 5% of simulated GW-associated short GRBs produce GeV–TeV radiation detectable by CTAO. Detectability is strongly influenced by the jet opening angle and viewing angle, suggesting that even rough estimates of the viewing angle in GW alerts could enhance targeting. This framework motivates future follow-ups of GW-detectable events, including neutron star–black hole mergers, and further supports the development of advanced strategies incorporating galaxy distributions and synergies with future detectors such as the Einstein Telescope.

Abe, S. [University of Tokyo] (ORCID:0000000172503↗

DOE OSTI2021

Constraints on the Electromagnetic Counterpart of the Neutron-star–Black-hole Merger GW200115

We report the results of our follow-up campaign for the neutron-star—black-hole (NSBH) merger GW200115 detected during the O3 run of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. We obtained wide-field observations with the Deca-Degree Optical Transient Imager covering ~20% of the total probability area down to a limiting magnitude of w = 20.5 AB at ~23 hr after the merger. Our search for counterparts returns a single candidate (AT2020aeo), likely not associated with the merger. In total, only 25 sources of interest were identified by the community and later discarded as unrelated to the GW event. We compare our upper limits with the emission predicted by state-of-the-art kilonova simulations and disfavor high-mass ejecta (>0.1 M⊙), indicating that the spin of the system is not particularly high. By combining our optical limits with gamma-ray constraints from Swift and Fermi, we disfavor the presence of a standard short-duration burst for viewing angles ≲15° from the jet axis. Our conclusions are, however, limited by the large localization region of this GW event, and accurate prompt positions remain crucial to improving the efficiency of follow-up efforts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2012

Techniques for Targeted Fermi-GBM Follow-Up of Gravitational-Wave Events

The Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo ground-based gravitational-wave (GW) detectors are projected to come online 2015 2016, reaching a final sensitivity sufficient to observe dozens of binary neutron star mergers per year by 2018. We present a fully-automated, targeted search strategy for prompt gamma-ray counterparts in offline Fermi-GBM data. The multi-detector method makes use of a detailed model response of the instrument, and benefits from time and sky location information derived from the gravitational-wave signal.

Blackburn, L.↗

NASA NTRS2013

X-ray Transients in the Advanced LIGO/Virgo Horizon

Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo will be all-sky monitors for merging compact objects within a few hundred megaparsecs. Finding the electromagnetic counterparts to these events will require an understanding of the transient sky at low redshift (z < 0.1). We performed a systematic search for extragalactic, low redshift, transient events in the XMM-Newton Slew Survey. In a flux limited sample, we found that highly variable objects comprised 10% of the sample, and that of these, 10% were spatially coincident with cataloged optical galaxies. This led to 4 × 10(exp −4) transients per square degree above a flux threshold of 3×10(exp −12) erg/sq cm/s (0.2-2 keV) which might be confused with LIGO/Virgo counterparts. This represents the first extragalactic measurement of the soft X-ray transient rate within the Advanced LIGO/Virgo horizon. Our search revealed six objects that were spatially coincident with previously cataloged galaxies, lacked evidence for optical active galactic nuclei, displayed high luminosities approx. 10(exp 43) erg/s, and varied in flux by more than a factor of 10 when compared with the ROSAT All-Sky Survey. At least four of these displayed properties consistent with previously observed tidal disruption events.

gravitational waves↗

NASA NTRS2014

Reconstructing the Sky Location of Gravitational-Wave Detected Compact Binary Systems: Methodology for Testing and Comparison

The problem of reconstructing the sky position of compact binary coalescences detected via gravitational waves is a central one for future observations with the ground-based network of gravitational-wave laser interferometers, such as Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. Different techniques for sky localization have been independently developed. They can be divided in two broad categories: fully coherent Bayesian techniques, which are high latency and aimed at in-depth studies of all the parameters of a source, including sky position, and "triangulation-based" techniques, which exploit the data products from the search stage of the analysis to provide an almost real-time approximation of the posterior probability density function of the sky location of a detection candidate. These techniques have previously been applied to data collected during the last science runs of gravitational-wave detectors operating in the so-called initial configuration. Here, we develop and analyze methods for assessing the self consistency of parameter estimation methods and carrying out fair comparisons between different algorithms, addressing issues of efficiency and optimality. These methods are general, and can be applied to parameter estimation problems other than sky localization. We apply these methods to two existing sky localization techniques representing the two above-mentioned categories, using a set of simulated inspiralonly signals from compact binary systems with a total mass of equal to or less than 20M solar mass and nonspinning components. We compare the relative advantages and costs of the two techniques and show that sky location uncertainties are on average a factor approx. equals 20 smaller for fully coherent techniques than for the specific variant of the triangulation-based technique used during the last science runs, at the expense of a factor approx. equals 1000 longer processing time.

technique used↗

NASA NTRS2020

Dynamic Scheduling: Target of Opportunity Observations of Gravitational Wave Events

The simultaneous detection of electromagnetic and gravitational waves from the coalescence of two neutron stars (GW170817 and GRB170817A) has ushered in a new era of ‘multimessenger’ astronomy, with electromagnetic detections spanning from gamma to radio. This great opportunity for new scientific investigations raises the issue of how the available multimessenger tools can best be integrated to constitute a powerful method to study the transient Universe in particular. To facilitate the classification of possible optical counterparts to gravitational wave events, it is important to optimize the scheduling of observations and the filtering of transients, both key elements of the follow-up process. In this work, we describe the existing workflow whereby telescope networks such as GRANDMA and GROWTH are currently scheduled; we then present modifications we have developed for the scheduling process specifically, so as to face the relevant challenges that have appeared during the latest observing run of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. We address issues with scheduling more than one epoch for multiple fields within a skymap, especially for large and disjointed localizations. This is done in two ways: by optimizing the maximum number of fields that can be scheduled and by splitting up the lobes within the skymap by right ascension to be scheduled individually. In addition, we implement the ability to take previously observed fields into consideration when rescheduling. We show the improvements that these modifications produce in making the search for optical counterparts more efficient, and we point to areas needing further improvement.

Gravitational waves↗

NASA NTRS2020

GW190521: A Binary Black Hole Merger with a Total Mass of 150 Mꙩ

On May 21, 2019 at 03:02:29 UTC Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo observed a short duration gravitational-wave signal, GW190521, with a three-detector network signal-to-noise ratio of 14.7, and an estimated false-alarm rate of 1 in 4900 yr using a search sensitive to generic transients. If GW190521 is from a quasicircular binary inspiral, then the detected signal is consistent with the merger of two black holes with masses of 85 (+21,−14) Mꙩ and 66 (+17,−18) Mꙩ (90% credible intervals). We infer that the primary black hole mass lies within the gap produced by (pulsational) pair-instability supernova processes, with only a 0.32% probability of being below 65 M⊙. We calculate the mass of the remnant to be 142 (+28,−16) Mꙩ, which can be considered an intermediate mass black hole (IMBH). The luminosity distance of the source is 5.3 (+2.4,−2.6) Gpc, corresponding to a redshift of 0.82 (+0.28,−0.34) . The inferred rate of mergers similar to GW190521 is 0.13 (+0.30,−0.11) Gpc^(−3) per yr.

R. Abbott↗

NASA NTRS2021

DDOTI Observations of Gravitational-Wave Sources Discovered in O3

We present optical follow-up observations with the Deca-Degree Optical Transient Imager (DDOTI) telescope of gravitational-wave (GW) events detected during the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo O3 observing run. DDOTI is capable of responding to an alert in a few minutes, has an instantaneous field of about 69 deg2, and obtains 10σ upper limits of wlim = 18.5–20.5 AB mag in 1000 s of exposure, depending on the conditions. We observed 54 per cent (26 out of 48) of the unretracted GW alerts and did not find any electromagnetic counterparts. We compare our upper limits to various possible counterparts: the kilonova AT 2017gfo, models of radioactive- and magnetar-powered kilonovae, short gamma-ray burst afterglows, and active galactic nucleus (AGN) flares. Although the large positional uncertainties of GW sources do not allow us to place strong constraints during O3, DDOTI observations of well-localized GW events in O4 and beyond could meaningfully constrain models of compact binary mergers. We show that DDOTI is able to detect kilonovae similar to AT 2017gfo up to about 200 Mpc and magnetar-powered kilonovae up to 1 Gpc. We calculate that nearby (≲200 Mpc) afterglows have a high chance (≈70 per cent) to be detected by rapid (≲3 h) DDOTI observations if observed on-axis, whereas off-axis afterglows are unlikely to be seen. Finally, we suggest that long-term monitoring of massive BBH events with DDOTI could confirm or rule out late AGN flares associated with these events.

gravitational waves↗

NASA NTRS2021

GWTC-2: Compact Binary Coalescences Observed by LIGO and Virgo During the First Half of the Third Observing Run

We report on gravitational wave discoveries from compact binary coalescences detected by Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo in the first half of the third observing run (O3a) between 1 April 2019 15:00 UTC and 1 October 2019 15:00 UTC. By imposing a false-alarm-rate threshold of two per year in each of the four search pipelines that constitute our search, we present 39 candidate gravitational wave events. At this threshold, we expect a contamination fraction of less than 10%. Of these, 26 candidate events were reported previously in near real-time through GCN Notices and Circulars; 13 are reported here for the first time. The catalog contains events whose sources are black hole binary mergers up to a redshift of ~ 0.8, as well as events whose components could not be unambiguously identified as black holes or neutron stars. For the latter group, we are unable to determine the nature based on estimates of the component masses and spins from gravitational wave data alone. The range of candidate event masses which are unambiguously identified as binary black holes (both objects ≥ 3 M⨀) is increased compared to GWTC-1, with total masses from ∼ 14M⨀ for GW190924 021846 to ∼ 150M⨀ for GW190521. For the first time, this catalog includes binary systems with significantly asymmetric mass ratios, which had not been observed in data taken before April 2019. We also find that 11 of the 39 events detected since April 2019 have positive effective inspiral spins under our default prior (at 90% credibility), while none exhibit negative effective inspiral spin. Given the increased sensitivity of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo, the detection of 39 candidate events in ∼26 weeks of data (∼1.5 per week) is consistent with GWTC-1.

Gravitational wave detection↗

DOE OSTI2024

Physics-inspired spatiotemporal-graph AI ensemble for the detection of higher order wave mode signals of spinning binary black hole mergers

We present a new class of AI models for the detection of quasi-circular, spinning, non-precessing binary black hole mergers whose waveforms include the higher order gravitational wave modes ($\ell$, |m|) = {(2,2), (2,1), (3,3), (3,2), (4,4)}, and mode mixing effects in the $\ell$ = 3, |m| = 2 harmonics. These AI models combine hybrid dilated convolution neural networks to accurately model both short- and long-range temporal sequential information of gravitational waves; and graph neural networks to capture spatial correlations among gravitational wave observatories to consistently describe and identify the presence of a signal in a three detector network encompassing the Advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors. We first trained these spatiotemporal-graph AI models using synthetic noise, using 1.2 million modeled waveforms to densely sample this signal manifold, within 1.7 h using 256 NVIDIA A100 GPUs in the Polaris supercomputer at the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility. This distributed training approach exhibited optimal classification performance, and strong scaling up to 512 NVIDIA A100 GPUs. With these AI ensembles we processed data from a three detector network, and found that an ensemble of 4 AI models achieves state-of-the-art performance for signal detection, and reports two misclassifications for every decade of searched data. We distributed AI inference over 128 GPUs in the Polaris supercomputer and 128 nodes in the Theta supercomputer, and completed the processing of a decade of gravitational wave data from a three detector network within 3.5 h. Finally, we fine-tuned these AI ensembles to process the entire month of February 2020, which is part of the O3b LIGO/Virgo observation run, and found 6 gravitational waves, concurrently identified in Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo data, and zero false positives. This analysis was completed in one hour using one NVIDIA A100 GPU.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2016

Astrophysical Implications of the Binary Black Hole Merger GW150914

The discovery of the gravitational-wave (GW) source GW150914 with the Advanced LIGO detectors provides the first observational evidence for the existence of binary black hole (BH) systems that in spiral and merge within the age of the universe. Such BH mergers have been predicted in two main types of formation models, involving isolated binaries in galactic fields or dynamical interactions in young and old dense stellar environments. The measured masses robustly demonstrate that relatively heavy BHs (> or approx. 25 Stellar Mass) can form in nature. This discovery implies relatively weak massive-star winds and thus the formation of GW150914 in an environment with a metallicity lower than about 12 of the solar value. The rate of binary-BH (BBH) mergers inferred from the observation of GW150914 is consistent with the higher end of rate predictions (> or approx. 1/cu Gpc/yr) from both types of formation models. The low measured redshift (z approx. = 0.1) of GW150914 and the low inferred metallicity of the stellar progenitor imply either BBH formation in a low-mass galaxy in the local universe and a prompt merger, or formation at high redshift with a time delay between formation and merger of several Gyr. This discovery motivates further studies of binary-BH formation astrophysics. It also has implications for future detections and studies by Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo, and GW detectors in space.

stars↗

NASA NTRS2017

Gravitational Waves and Gamma-Rays from a Binary Neutron Star Merger: GW170817 and GRB 170817A

On 2017 August 17, the gravitational-wave event GW170817 was observed by the Advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors, and the gamma-ray burst (GRB) GRB170817A was observed independently by the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor, and the Anti-Coincidence Shield for the Spectrometer for the International Gamma-Ray Astrophysics Laboratory. The probability of the near-simultaneous temporal and spatial observation of GRB 170817A and GW170817 occurring by chance is 5.0 x 10(exp -8). We therefore confirm binary neutron star mergers as a progenitor of short GRBs. The association of GW170817 and GRB 170817A provides new insight into fundamental physics and the origin of short GRBs. We use the observed time delay of (+1.74 +/- 0.05) s between GRB170817A and GW170817 to: (i) constrain the difference between the speed of gravity and the speed of light to be between -3 x 10(exp-16) times the speed of light, (ii) place new bounds on the violation of Lorentz invariance, (iii) present a new test of the equivalence principle by constraining the Shapiro delay between gravitational and electromagnetic radiation. We also use the time delay to constrain the size and bulk Lorentz factor of the region emitting the gamma-rays. GRB170817A is the closest short GRB with a known distance, but is between 2 and 6 orders of magnitude less energetic than other bursts with measured redshift. A new generation of gamma-ray detectors, and subthreshold searches in existing detectors, will be essential to detect similar short bursts at greater distances. Finally, we predict a joint detection rate for the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor and the Advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors of 0.1 - 1.4 per year during the 2018--2019 observing run and 0.3 - 1.7 per year at design sensitivity.

Gravitational wave↗