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NASA NTRS2022

Evaluating Uncertainty and Modes of Variability for Antarctic Atmospheric Rivers

Antarctic atmospheric rivers (ARs) are driven by their synoptic environments and lead to profound and varying impacts along the coastlines and over the continent. The definition and detection of ARs over Antarctica accounts for large uncertainty in AR metrics, and consequently, impacts quantification. We find that Antarctic-specific detection tools consistently capture the AR footprint inland over ice sheets, whereas most global detection tools do not. Large-scale synoptic environments and associated ARs, however, are broadly consistent across detection tools. Using data from the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project and global reanalyses, we quantify the uncertainty in Antarctic AR metrics and evaluate large-scale environments in the context of decadal and interannual modes of variability. The Antarctic western hemisphere has stronger connections to both decadal and interannual modes of variability compared to East Antarctica, and the Indian Ocean Dipole’s influence on Antarctic ARs is stronger while in phase with El Nino Southern Oscillation.

Antarctic↗

NASA NTRS1986

Trace elements in Antarctic meteorites: Weathering and genetic information

Antarctic meteorite discoveries have created great scientific interest due to the large number of specimens recovered (approximately 7000) and because included are representatives of hitherto rare or unknown types. Antarctic meteorites are abundant because they have fallen over long periods and were preserved, transported, and concentrated by the ice sheets. The weathering effects on the Antarctic meteorites are described. Weathering effects of trace element contents of H5 chondrites were studied in detail. The results are examined. The properties of Antarctic finds and non-Antarctic falls are discussed.

Lipschutz, M. E.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Solutions to problems of weathering in Antarctic eucrites

Neutron activation analysis was performed for major and trace elements on a suite of eucrites from both Antarctic and non-Antarctic sources. The chemistry was examined to see if there was an easy way to distinguish Antarctic eucrites that had been disturbed in their trace elements systematics from those that had normal abundances relative to non-Antarctic eucrites. There was no simple correlation found, and identifying the disturbed meteorites still remains a problem. In addition, a set of mineral separates from an eucrite were analyzed. The results showed no abnormalities in the chemistry and provides a possible way to use Antarctic eucrites that were disturbed in modelling of the eucrite parent body.

Strait, Melissa M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Observations and theories related to Antarctic ozone changes

In 1985, there was a report of a large, sudden, and unanticipated decrease in the abundance of springtime Antarctic ozone over the last decade. By 1987, ozone decreases of more than 50 percent in the total column, and 95 percent locally between 15 and 20 km, had been observed. The scientific community quickly rose to the challenge of explaining this remarkable discovery; theoreticians soon developed a series of chemical and dynamical hypotheses to explain the ozone loss. Three basic theories were proposed to explain the springtime ozone hole. (1) The ozone hole is caused by the increasing atmospheric loadings of manmade chemicals containing chlorine (chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's) and bromine (halons)). These chemicals efficiently destroy ozone in the lower stratosphere in the Antarctic because of the special geophysical conditions, of an isolated air mass (polar vortex) with very cold temperatures, that exist there. (2) The circulation of the atmosphere in spring has changed from being predominantly downward over Antarctica to upward. This would mean that ozone poor air from the troposphere, instead of ozone rich air from the upper stratosphere, would be transported into the lower Antarctic stratosphere. (3) The abundance of the oxides of nitrogen in the lower Antarctic stratosphere is periodically enhanced by solar activity. Nitrogen oxides are produced in the upper mesosphere and thermosphere and then transported downward into the lower stratosphere in Antarctica, resulting in the chemical destruction of ozone. The climatology and trends of ozone, temperature, and polar stratospheric clouds are discussed. Also, the transport and chemical theories for the Antarctic ozone hole are presented.

Hartmann, D.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Terrestrial Ages of Antarctic Meteorites- Update 1999

We are continuing our ongoing study of cosmogenic nuclides in Antarctic meteorites. In addition to the studies of exposure histories of meteorites, we study terrestrial ages and pairing of Antarctic meteorites and desert meteorites. Terrestrial ages of Antarctic meteorites provide information on meteorite accumulation mechanisms, mean weathering lifetimes, and influx rates. The determination of Cl-36(half-life=3.01 x 10(exp 5) y) terrestrial ages is one of our long-term on-going projects, however, in many instances neither Cl-36 or C-14 (5,730 y) yields an accurate terrestrial age. Using Ca-14 (1.04 x 10(exp 5) y) for terrestrial age determinations solves this problem by filling the c,ap in half-life between 14-C and Cl-36 ages. We are now applying the new Ca-41- Cl-36 terrestrial age method as well as the Cl-36-Be-10 method to Antarctic meteorites. Our measurements and C-14 terrestrial age determinations by the University of Arizona group are always complementary. We have measured Cl-36 in over 270 Antarctic meteorites since our previous compilation of terrestrial ages. Since a large number of meteorites have been recovered from many different icefields in Antarctica, we continue to survey the trends of terrestrial ages for different icefields. We have also measured detailed terrestrial ages vs. sample locations for Allan Hills, Elephant Moraine, and Lewis Cliff Icefields, where meteorites have been found with very long ages. The updated histograms of terrestrial ages of meteorites from the Allan Hills Main Icefield and Lewis Cliff Icefield are shown. These figures include C-14 ages obtained by the University of Arizona group. Pairs of meteorites are shown as one object for which the age is the average of all members of the same fall. The width of the bars represents 70,000 years, which was a typical uncertainty for Cl-36 ages. We reduced the uncertainty of terrestrial age determinations to approx. 40,000 years by using pairs of nuclides such as Ca-41-Cl-36 or Cl-36-Be-10. Meteorites found at the Allan Hills Icefields are much older than any other meteorites. The terrestrial ages cover a wide range and are as old as 2 My. Many of the Lewis Cliff meteorites are as old as the Allan Hills meteorites. So far, no clear correlation has been found between the terrestrial ages and the locations of the Lewis Cliff meteorites.

Nishiizumi, Kunihiko↗

NASA NTRS2003

Antarctic Ice-Sheet Mass Balance from Satellite Altimetry 1992 to 2001

A major uncertainty in understanding the causes of the current rate of sea level rise is the potential contributions from mass imbalances of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Estimates of the current mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet are derived from surface- elevation changes obtained from 9 years of ERS - 1 & 2 radar altimeter data. Elevation time-series are created from altimeter crossovers among 90-day data periods on a 50 km grid to 81.5 S. The time series are fit with a multivariate linear/sinusoidal function to give the average rate of elevation change (dH/dt). On the major Rome-Filchner, Ross, and Amery ice shelves, the W d t are small or near zero. In contrast, the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula and along the West Antarctic coast appear to be thinning significantly, with a 23 +/- 3 cm per year surface elevation decrease on the Larsen ice shelf and a 65 +/- 4 cm per year decrease on the Dotson ice shelf. On the grounded ice, significant elevation decreases are obtained over most of the drainage basins of the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers in West Antarctica and inland of Law Dome in East Antarctica. Significant elevation increases are observed within about 200 km of the coast around much of the rest of the ice sheet. Farther inland, the changes are a mixed pattern of increases and decreases with increases of a few centimeters per year at the highest elevations of the East Antarctic plateau. The derived elevation changes are combined with estimates of the bedrock uplift from several models to provide maps of ice thickness change. The ice thickness changes enable estimates of the ice mass balances for the major drainage basins, the overall mass balance, and the current contribution of the ice sheet to global sea level change.

Zwally, H. Jay↗

NASA NTRS2004

Modeling and Observational Study of the Global Atmospheric Impacts of Antarctic Sea Ice Anomalies

A combined observational and modeling study considers the linkage between Antarctic sea ice and the climate of non-local latitudes. The observational component is based upon analyses of monthly station observations and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Reanalysis (NNR). The modeling component consists of simulations of the NCAR Community Climate Model versions 2 (CCM2) and 3 (CCM3) and the recent Community Atmosphere Model (CAM2). A convenient mechanism for communication between the Antarctic region (particularly the Ross Sea area) and the tropics and Northern Hemisphere is examined. The first evidence of this teleconnection came from CCM2 simulations performed during an earlier NASA supported project. Annual-cycle simulations with and without Antarctic sea ice show statistically- significant responses in monsoon precipitation over central and northern China during the month of September. The changes in monsoon precipitation are physically consistent with an intensified southwest Pacific (Northern Hemisphere) subtropical high in response to all Antarctic sea ice being removed and replaced with open water at -1.9"C. The intensified high is the northernmost component of three primary anomalies. The southernmost anomaly includes the Ross Sea area, where sea ice has been removed. An earlier study by Peng and Domros had also found a link between Antarctic sea ice and the East Asian monsoon circulation. The current project has helped to understand the teleconnection.

Bromwich, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Antarctic Meteorites: A Statistical Look at a Uniquely Valuable Resource

As of the end of the 2018-19 field season, the U.S. Antarctic meteorite program has surpassed 23,000 meteorites collected. The U.S. collection is valuable in that it is classified in its entirety. The systematic methods employed to collect the meteorites have provided meteorites of more than 40 types, many of which are the first of their type ever recognized. One of the early drivers for consistent and methodical characterization of the entire U.S. Antarctic collection was to allow statistical comparisons. Early statistical assessments of the U.S. Antarctic collection examined mass distributions and the relative frequency of meteorite types as well as comparisons to a defined set of modern falls. Using these statistics argued that the flux of H chondrites changed over time used model size distributions to deconstruct the contribution of wind movement, meteorite supply and search losses to the Antarctic collection. Mass-based statistics and size distribution comparisons were examined by investigated various aspects of the statistics, including comparison with modern falls/Saharan finds. Also discuss geospatial statistics provides a comprehensive overview of the statistics of the Antarctic collections for the first 35 seasons of U.S. collection by ANSMET. Here we build upon that assessment and that from.

Corrigan, C. M.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Insights on the Vulnerability of Antarctic Glaciers From the ISMIP6 Ice Sheet Model Ensemble and Associated Uncertainty

The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice–climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty.

Hélène Seroussi↗

NASA NTRS2002

Suppression of human anti-inflammatory plasma cytokines IL-10 and IL-1RA with elevation of proinflammatory cytokine IFN-gamma during the isolation of the Antarctic winter

Cellular immune function has been shown to be decreased and latent virus shedding to be increased in human beings isolated during the Antarctic winter, a model used for assessing some effects of space flight. However, the balance of proinflammatory (IFN-gamma) and anti-inflammatory (IL-10 and IL-1RA) cytokines has not previously been evaluated. We therefore sought to determine whether isolation during the Antarctic winter would alter the proinflammatory and anti-inflammatory cytokine balance. Cytokine levels were measured with ELISA in monthly plasma samples from January through September 1999 in 21 study subjects in the Antarctic and 7 control subjects on Macquarie Island. There was a significant time-dependent increase in plasma IFN-gamma (P =.039) as well as decreases in IL-10 (P =.042) and IL-1RA (P =.053) in the study subjects compared with the control subjects. The study subjects also had significantly increased plasma IFN-gamma levels (P < or =.045) but decreased IL-10 and IL-1RA levels (P < or =.036) at individual time points of isolation. Isolation of human beings in the Antarctic appears to shift the plasma cytokine balance toward a proinflammatory profile. These observations are consistent with T-cell activation that might be due to activation of latent viruses, and they could hold importance for determining the risks of space flight.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology↗

NASA NTRS2001

Antibody responses to bacteriophage phi X-174 in human subjects exposed to the antarctic winter-over model of spaceflight

BACKGROUND: It has been proposed that exposure to long-term spaceflight conditions (stress, isolation, sleep disruption, containment, microbial contamination, and solar radiation) or to ground-based models of spaceflight will alter human immune responses, but specific antibody responses have not been fully evaluated. OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine whether exposure to the 8-month Antarctic winter-over model of spaceflight would alter human antibody responses. METHODS: During the 1999 Australian National Antarctic Research Expeditions, 11 adult study subjects at Casey, Antarctica, and 7 control subjects at Macquarie Island, sub-Antarctica, received primary and secondary immunizations with the T cell-dependent neoantigen bacteriophage phi X-174. Periodic plasma samples were analyzed for specific antibody function. RESULTS: All of the subjects from Casey, Antarctica, cleared bacteriophage phi X-174 normally by 1 week after primary immunization, and all had normal primary and secondary antibody responses, including immunologic memory amplification and switch from IgM to IgG antibody production. One subject showed a high normal pattern, and one subject had a low normal pattern. The control subjects from Macquarie Island also had normal immune responses to bacteriophage phi X-174. CONCLUSIONS: These data do not support the hypothesis that de novo specific antibody responses of subjects become defective during the conditions of the Antarctic winter-over. Because the Antarctic winter-over model of spaceflight lacks the important factors of microgravity and solar radiation, caution must be used in interpreting these data to anticipate normal antibody responses in long-term spaceflight.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2014

Uncertainties in the Modelled CO2 Threshold for Antarctic Glaciation

frequently cited atmospheric CO2 threshold for the onset of Antarctic glaciation of approximately780 parts per million by volume is based on the study of DeConto and Pollard (2003) using an ice sheet model and the GENESIS climate model. Proxy records suggest that atmospheric CO2 concentrations passed through this threshold across the Eocene-Oligocene transition approximately 34 million years. However, atmospheric CO2 concentrations may have been close to this threshold earlier than this transition, which is used by some to suggest the possibility of Antarctic ice sheets during the Eocene. Here we investigate the climate model dependency of the threshold for Antarctic glaciation by performing offline ice sheet model simulations using the climate from 7 different climate models with Eocene boundary conditions (HadCM3L, CCSM3, CESM1.0, GENESIS, FAMOUS, ECHAM5 and GISS_ER). These climate simulations are sourced from a number of independent studies, and as such the boundary conditions, which are poorly constrained during the Eocene, are not identical between simulations. The results of this study suggest that the atmospheric CO2 threshold for Antarctic glaciation is highly dependent on the climate model used and the climate model configuration. A large discrepancy between the climate model and ice sheet model grids for some simulations leads to a strong sensitivity to the lapse rate parameter.

simulation↗

NASA NTRS2014

Changes in Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice as a Microcosm of Global Climate Change

Polar sea ice is a key element of the climate system and has now been monitored through satellite observations for over three and a half decades. The satellite observations reveal considerable information about polar ice and its changes since the late 1970s, including a prominent downward trend in Arctic sea ice coverage and a much lesser upward trend in Antarctic sea ice coverage, illustrative of the important fact that climate change entails spatial contrasts. The decreasing ice coverage in the Arctic corresponds well with contemporaneous Arctic warming and exhibits particularly large decreases in the summers of 2007 and 2012, influenced by both preconditioning and atmospheric conditions. The increasing ice coverage in the Antarctic is not as readily explained, but spatial differences in the Antarctic trends suggest a possible connection with atmospheric circulation changes that have perhaps been influenced by the Antarctic ozone hole. The changes in the polar ice covers and the issues surrounding those changes have many commonalities with broader climate changes and their surrounding issues, allowing the sea ice changes to be viewed in some important ways as a microcosm of global climate change.

Arctic↗

NASA NTRS2019

A 40-Y Record Reveals Gradual Antarctic Sea Ice Increases Followed by Decreases at Rates Far Exceeding the Rates Seen in the Arctic

Following over 3 decades of gradual but uneven increases in sea ice coverage, the yearly average Antarctic sea ice extents reached a record high of 12.8 by 10 (sup 6) square kilometers in 2014, followed by a decline so precipitous that they reached their lowest value in the 40-year 1979-2018 satellite multichannel passive-microwave record, 10.7 by 10 (sup 6) square kilometers, in 2017. In contrast, it took the Arctic sea ice cover a full 3 decades to register a loss that great in yearly average ice extents. Still, when considering the 40-year record as a whole, the Antarctic sea ice continues to have a positive overall trend in yearly average ice extents, although at 11,300 plus or minus 5,300 square kilometers per year, this trend is only 50 percent of the trend for 1979-2014, before the precipitous decline. Four of the 5 sectors into which the Antarctic sea ice cover is divided all also have 40-year positive trends that are well reduced from their 2014-2017 values. The one anomalous sector in this regard,the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas, has a 40-year negative trend, with the yearly average ice extents decreasing overall in the first 3 decades, reaching a minimum in 2007, and exhibiting an overall upward trend since 2007 (i.e., reflecting a reversal in the opposite direction from the other 4 sectors and the Antarctic sea ice cover as a whole).

Satellite Earth Observations↗

NASA NTRS2019

A 40-y record reveals gradual Antarctic sea ice increases followed by decreases at rates far exceeding the rates seen in the Arctic

Following over 3 decades of gradual but uneven increases in sea ice coverage, the yearly average Antarctic sea ice extents reached a record high of 12.8 × 106(6) sq. km in 2014, followed by a decline so precipitous that they reached their lowest value in the 40-y 1979– 2018 satellite multichannel passive-microwave record, 10.7 × 10^(6) sq. km, in 2017. In contrast, it took the Arctic sea ice cover a full 3 decades to register a loss that great in yearly average ice extents. Still, when considering the 40-y record as a whole, the Antarctic sea ice continues to have a positive overall trend in yearly average ice extents, although at 11,300 ± 5,300 sq. km/y, this trend is only 50% of the trend for 1979–2014, before the precipitous decline. Four of the 5 sectors into which the Antarctic sea ice cover is divided all also have 40-y positive trends that are well reduced from their 2014–2017 values. The one anomalous sector in this regard, the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas, has a 40-y negative trend, with the yearly average ice extents decreasing overall in the first 3 decades, reaching a minimum in 2007, and exhibiting an overall upward trend since 2007 (i.e., reflecting a reversal in the opposite direction from the other 4 sectors and the Antarctic sea ice cover as a whole).

sea ice↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Antarctic Meteorites: A Statistical Look at a Uniquely Valuable Resource

As of the 2019-20 field season, the U.S. Antarctic meteorite program has collected >23,000 meteorites. The U.S. collection is valuable in that it is classified in its entirety. The systematic collection methods employed have pro-vided meteorites of >40 types, many of which are the first of their type ever recognized. One of the early drivers for characterization of the entire U.S. Antarctic collection was to allow statistical comparisons. Early statistical assessments examined mass distributions and the relative frequency of meteorite types as well as comparisons to a defined set of modern falls. Using these statistics some have argued that the flux of H chondrites changed over time. Harvey used model size distributions to deconstruct the contribution of wind movement, meteorite supply and search losses to the Antarctic collection. Mass-based statistics and size distribution comparisons were examined, including comparison with modern falls/Saharan finds. Focus has been on geospatial statistics, with a comprehensive overview of the statistics of the Antarctic collections provided from the first 35 seasons of U.S. collection by ANSMET, as well as more recent assessments.

Antarctic meteorite↗

NASA NTRS1983

Cosmogenic records in Antarctic meteorites

Aliquot samples of 29 Antarctic L and H chondrites are analyzed for their nuclear track records and Mn-53 activities. The track density in the analyzed samples ranges from 10 to the 4th to approximately 6 x 10 to the 6th per sq cm. A significant finding is the observation of track-rich grains in a set of four L3 chondrites (ALHA 77215, 77216, 77217, and 77252), suspected of belonging to the same fall based on petrographic observations. An additional sample, ALHA 78105, an L6 chondrite, also has track-rich grains. Mn-53 activity is at near saturation level in approximately 65 percent of the analyzed samples, suggesting exposure ages of greater than 10 m.y. in these cases. Very few H chondrites from the 7-m.y. exposure age peak are apparently sampled among the ones investigated in this study. Approximately 6 percent and 4 percent, respectively, of the Antarctic H and L chondrites analyzed thus far for their cosmogenic records have precompaction irradiation features. A combined analysis of Mn-53 and nuclear track data makes it possible to confirm or rule out the proposed pairing of several sets of Antarctic meteorites and to estimate the preatmospheric sizes of some of these meteorites. The results suggest that most of the small Antarctic meteorites (less than 1 kg) have suffered high (greater than 95 percent) ablation mass-loss.

Goswami, J. N.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Al-26 survey of Antarctic meteorites

An Al-26 survey by nondestructive gamma ray spectrometry was conducted as part of the preliminary examination effort for Antarctic meteorites. A total of 220 samples were studied. The majority of the samples were from the Allan Hills area; however, samples from several other sites, including the Yamato Mountains, were studied. Compared to worldwide falls and finds, the Antarctic group shows a clear trend toward lower Al-26 levels. At least 10 percent of the samples studied were clearly undersaturated in Al-26. The frequency of undersaturated samples suggests that terrestrial ages of several hundred thousand years are common among the Antarctic meteorite collection. The absence of samples with extremely low Al-26 implies that the upper limit for terrestrial ages in the Antarctic is on the order of 1 million years.

Evans, J. C.↗