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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2022

AOI.1 Application of Artificial Intelligence techniques enabling coal fired power plants the ability to achieve higher efficiency, improved availability, and increased reliability of their operations (Final Report)

During this effort, SparkCognition with support from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) was tasked with applying artificial intelligence (AI) to improve the reliability, efficiency, and safety of operations at a coal-fired plant. By implementing AI techniques, like machine learning (ML), it is believed that operators can leverage existing data sources to gain more insights such as advanced warning of machine degradation. With enough lead time, a reliability engineer can take action to minimize, or even avoid, impact to production. To complete this work effort, SparkCognition developed and refined an ML-based model using sensor data for a Steam Turbine unit at a host site. The models were deployed in an online, web-based solution that allows users to visualize model outputs and supporting data. The final solution, based on SparkCognition’s proprietary software platform called SparkPredict®, was shared with EPRI who completed an online evaluation of results to determine the solution’s ability to detect actionable events.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Leveraging ARM Data to Improve Models for Predictive Understanding of Energy and Security Challenges

Extreme weather and natural hazards can disrupt the energy sector, affecting demand, generation, transmission, distribution, consumption and operational planning at regional and national scales. These disruptions stem from a broad range of atmospheric phenomena, including winter storms, freezing rain, wet snow loading, severe convection, flooding and landslides, wildfires, prolonged heat, and drought. Many of these same phenomena can also affect national security through impacts to transportation and infrastructure. To support the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) focus on energy resilience and national security, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility is uniquely positioned to contribute measurement data, analyses, and modeling frameworks that can significantly improve predictive understanding of these hazards to mitigate their effects. To explore this opportunity, ARM convened a two-part virtual workshop in November 2025. The workshop engaged interdisciplinary experts in atmospheric science, energy systems, modeling, and operations. The goal of the meeting was to engage with these interdisciplinary experts to address three questions: • What are examples of atmospheric processes that represent significant risks to energy security or national security and where are those risks greatest? • What measurements or measurement strategies would improve ARM’s capacity to address these issues? • How can ARM and users of the ARM facility better work with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and multi-sector modeling communities to apply ARM data to improving E3SM simulations of these phenomena? Participants were asked to submit white papers ahead of the meeting to initiate thinking on these themes and to help organize discussions. Workshop sessions were then organized around themes identified in the white papers. First from the white papers and then through subsequent discussions, workshop participants identified many examples that address the three questions listed above. Participants called out energy system vulnerabilities to weather phenomena such as the impact of freezing rain, strong winds, and excessive heat on power grids. They also noted the effects that weather phenomena could have on energy demand or supply (e.g., through effects of extreme temperatures). They called out security vulnerabilities such as impacts to crops from aerosol-borne pathogens and risks to industry due to melting permafrost in the Arctic. In all, over a dozen meteorological phenomena were linked to energy or security vulnerabilities. For many of the identified phenomena, participants pointed out where ARM was well poised to address issues (e.g., through measurements of cloud microphysics to inform studies of freezing rain) but also noted needs for additional measurements or modified measurement strategies. For example, adaptive scanning of severe weather would be valuable for probing winter storms or severe convection. Participants pointed out the value in integrating external observations with ARM measurements and with applying artificial intelligence (AI) to ARM observation analysis and they advocated for using model simulations to help optimize measurement strategies through Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). It was clear from the workshop that there are many ways that ARM observations can be used to mitigate energy and security concerns, but meeting participants were also asked to identify what they considered to be the greatest opportunities by ranking issues pertaining to the three workshop questions. This was accomplished through a survey administered to participants between the two virtual sessions. The highest-priority phenomena identified were winter storms, severe convection, and arctic processes. Discussion in the second session, therefore, focused primarily on these three areas, which were most fully developed in exploring ARM opportunities. Nevertheless, it was also clear that ARM has opportunities to contribute to all the identified topics. This report describes the workshop, including input from discussion and white papers (Sections 2 and 3) and a list of priority recommendations (section 4). Many other ideas for ARM contributions are discussed in individual white papers (Appendix D).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Artificial Intelligence Strategy and Implementation [Slides]

LANL strategic activities for AI center on this goal: accelerate development of AI-enabled capabilities for science and security, with focus on developing and applying mission-relevant core AI technologies, creating an AI workforce pipeline and training opportunities, and building AI partnerships and community.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characterization of Extremes and Compound Impacts: Applications of Machine Learning and Interpretable Neural Networks

Focal Area: This white paper responds to Focal area III by exploring data fusion, learning and explainable AI methods in characterizing hydrological extremes and interconnections. It also addresses Focal area II by using probabilistic AI and ensemble ML for predicting extremes and compound extremes. Science Challenge: A key question associated with the integrated water (or hydrological) cycle grand challenge in the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD) strategic plan, is how the frequency and intensity of hydrological events will change. Prediction of the tail behavior (extremes) of the hydrological cycle is especially challenging, because of their stochasticity and low probability. These extreme events and their compound impacts have significant societal and economic consequences. It is anticipated for the next-generation Earth System models (ESMs), that model predictability of the water cycle will improve with increased resolution (e.g., regionally refined E3SM), advanced software and computational architectures, and improved model physics based on the data from ARM measurements and high-fidelity models. However, the challenges for predictability of low-probability high-impact extreme events will unlikely be alleviated with conventional modeling and data-driven approaches, as ESMs are calibrated largely for capturing the high-frequency mean climate states. Recent AI and ML applications have shown great potential in quantifying well-defined climate extremes (e.g., supervised learning of tropical cyclones/atmospheric rivers by ClimateNet1) but few efforts are dedicated to compound events, extreme drivers and uncertainty estimation. We envision the opportunity to develop and apply ML and interpretable AI methods extended on the existing efforts, specifically, for: (1) identification of compound extremes, (2) diagnosing drivers of extremes, (3) bias correction in extreme predictions and (4) probabilistic modeling of extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

AI-assisted detector design for the EIC (AID(2)E)

Artificial Intelligence is poised to transform the design of complex, large-scale detectors like ePIC at the future Electron Ion Collider. Featuring a central detector with additional detecting systems in the far forward and far backward regions, the ePIC experiment incorporates numerous design parameters and objectives, including performance, physics reach, and cost, constrained by mechanical and geometric limits. This project aims to develop a scalable, distributed AI-assisted detector design for the EIC (AID(2)E), employing state-of-the-art multiobjective optimization to tackle complex designs. Supported by the ePIC software stack and using G EANT 4 simulations, our approach benefits from transparent parameterization and advanced AI features. The workflow leverages the PanDA and iDDS systems, used in major experiments such as ATLAS at CERN LHC, the Rubin Observatory, and sPHENIX at RHIC, to manage the compute intensive demands of ePIC detector simulations. Tailored enhancements to the PanDA system focus on usability, scalability, automation, and monitoring. Ultimately, this project aims to establish a robust design capability, apply a distributed AI-assisted workflow to the ePIC detector, and extend its applications to the design of the second detector (Detector-2) in the EIC, as well as to calibration and alignment tasks. Additionally, we are developing advanced data science tools to efficiently navigate the complex, multidimensional trade-offs identified through this optimization process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Workshop Report for Next-Gen AI for Proliferation Detection: Accelerating the Development and Use of Explainability Methods to Design AI Systems Suitable for Nonproliferation Mission Applications

Artificial intelligence (AI) promises powerful new capabilities in an expansive array of applications. One area is proliferation detection, where AI can provide transformative tools to achieve objectives currently inaccessible using conventional methods. In particular, AI affords the opportunity to use new indicators and process massive amounts of heterogeneous data that can increase sensitivity to proliferant activities and push proliferation detection to the earliest possible stages. However, existing AI tools are not ready to achieve such potential, falling short in regard to some important considerations involved in proliferation detection. One crucial aspect that requires improvement is the explainability of the most powerful AI algorithms (i.e., understanding how the algorithms actually arrive at their conclusions)-the lack of which prevents widespread adoption in national security missions. The Data Science and AI portfolio within the National Nuclear Security Administration's Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development is driving the development of next-generation AI for proliferation detection through the expertise and work of the national laboratories and partners in academia. The "Next-Gen AI for Proliferation Detection: Accelerating the Development and Use of Explainability Methods to Design AI Systems Suitable for Nonproliferation Mission Applications" workshop aimed to further this objective. The meeting was held virtually on Sept. 15-16, 2020 and included more than 170 participants, primarily from the national laboratories with additional contributions from university researchers and mission partners. Each day included a keynote presentation, four technical presentations about cutting-edge research in explainability, and a panel to explore considerations in applying explainability and developing AI systems that can accelerate the transition of emerging AI technologies among partners and end users to solve critical mission questions. This report summarizes the Next-Gen AI for Proliferation Detection workshop's content and findings.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2022

AI-Enabled Discovery and Physics-Based Optimization of Energy Efficient Processing Strategies for Advanced Turbine Alloys (Final Technical Report)

In this project, the multi-organizational team of academic and industrial researchers from the University of Kentucky an aerospace and energy generation OEM partner has leveraged novel Digital Process Twin (DPT) models of process/structure interactions (i.e., process-induced surface integrity) to advance a paradigm of fully integrated computational materials engineering (ICME). Using efficient process models as the core of a digital process simulator for a reinforcement learning algorithm, the team has integrated industrial data and metrics of structure/performance/energy relationships and manufacturing-related energy metrics to optimize dynamic processing parameters for significantly improved life-cycle energy efficiency of advanced γ-TiAl low-pressure turbine (LPT) alloys, as indicated by a set of design relevant parameters (e.g., residual stresses and scrap rate). The key objective and anticipated outcome of the project was at least a 10% reduction in life-cycle embodied energy for a recently developed, γ-TiAl low-pressure turbine (LPT) alloy and nickel-based superalloy Inconel 718, through the adoption of the proposed AI-enabled process optimization approach. The final project outcomes significantly exceeded this original target, realizing manufacturing-related energy efficiency improvements of more than 130% for TiAl and up to 80% for Inconel 718. Rather than following the prevailing and highly inefficient empirical paradigm, the proposed study demonstrated the feasibility of adopting a digital, physics-based process design and optimization paradigm. The recurring need for manual intervention, rework, reinspection causes significant production bottlenecks and unnecessary expense associated with delivering the requisite component quality. The OEM partner, and turbine industry in general, expect to reap significant cost and resource savings if an AI-optimized set of parameters can be applied to specific machining operations. The technical scope of the proposed project involved the paving of a realistic path towards model-based and AI-enabled Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME), and away from inefficient empirical process optimization and legacy manufacturing practices, which are no longer able to efficiently process novel high-performance turbine alloy materials. The project team will address the fundamental knowledge gap that currently exists within the ICME paradigm with respect to the process/structure/performance/energy impacts of finishing processes. While significant resources have been devoted to the ‘early stages’ of manufacturing, such as alloy design, primary and secondary processing, finishing processes have not been adequately integrated within ICME. To provide an actionable path towards model-based finishing process design (e.g., machining, burnishing, grinding, polishing), we will employ a novel AI-enabled process optimization paradigm, based on a computationally efficient, physics-based process simulator. Through limited experimental work to calibrate and validate our process simulator model via an advanced in-situ characterization technique and process optimization via reinforcement learning, the project will seek to demonstrate a viable alternative to the inefficient ‘legacy’ processing strategies, empirical testing and broad scope machining learning approaches, all of which fail to adequately consider complex process physics. The project team has identified an intermetallic γ-TiAl LPT alloy, which is currently being used as part of the OEM partner’s advanced gas turbine designs. This particular alloy poses significant manufacturing challenges during finishing operations, which limit the degree to which the current turbine design can be manufactured in an energy- and cost-efficient manner. Empirical testing and numerical modeling efforts to optimize processing parameters for γ-TiAl have not been able to resolve these manufacturing challenges, so the proposed physics-based AI-enabled optimization technology would offer a truly novel and transformative capability. The multi-organizational team of academic and industry experts from the UKY and the OEM partner will work together closely to demonstrate the analytical and experimental critical function and characteristic proof of concept of this novel approach.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Drugging the entire human proteome: Are we there yet?

Each of the ~20 000 proteins in the human proteome is a potential target for compounds that bind to it and modify its function. The 3D structures of most of these proteins are now available. Here, we discuss the prospects for using these structures to perform proteome-wide virtual HTS (VHTS). Furthermore, we compare physics-based (docking) and AI VHTS approaches, some of which are now being applied with large databases of compounds to thousands of targets. Although preliminary proteome-wide screens are now within our grasp, further methodological developments are expected to improve the accuracy of the results.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Construction of approximate invariants for nonintegrable Hamiltonian systems

We present a method to construct high-order polynomial approximate invariants (AI) for nonintegrable Hamiltonian dynamical systems and apply it to a modern ring-based particle accelerator. Taking advantage of a special property of one-turn transformation maps expressed as square matrices, AIs can be constructed order by order iteratively. Evaluating AI with simulation data, we observe that AI’s fluctuation is actually a measure of chaos. Through minimizing the fluctuations, the stable region of long-term motions, i.e., the dynamic aperture of the accelerator, could be enlarged.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Antarctic Ice Sheet Freshwater Discharge Drives Substantial Southern Ocean Changes Over the 21st Century

Multidecadal satellite observations indicate that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is losing mass at an accelerating rate, which has the potential to impact many aspects of the climate system. While previous studies demonstrated the importance of AIS freshwater (FW) discharge for regional and global climate processes using climate model experiments, many have applied unrealistic FW forcings. Here, we explore potential Southern Ocean (SO) impacts of realistic AIS mass loss over the 21st century in the Community Earth System Model version 2 by applying observation-based historical and ice sheet model-based future AIS FW forcing. The added FW reduces wintertime deep convective area by 72% while retaining 83% more sea ice. Congruent with other studies, we find the increased FW discharge extensively impacts local and remote SO surface and subsurface temperature and stratification. These results demonstrate the necessity of accounting for AIS mass loss in global climate models for projecting future climate.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2021

NF-κB and neutrophil extracellular traps cooperate to promote breast cancer progression and metastasis

Highlights: • Cancer cells–derived factors, such as IL-8 and G-CSF, induce NETs formation via PAD4 and NF-κB. • NETs increase the interaction of NEMO with IKKα/β and enhance NF-κB activation. • Blockade of NETs using PAD4 inhibitor decreases NF-κB and tumor metastasis. • Selective inhibition of NF-κB reduces NETs formation and tumor growth and metastasis. Aberrant NF-κB activation and neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) are associated with breast cancer progression. How NF-κB and NETs modulate each other in breast cancer development remains unclear. Here, we found that NETs induced by phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate promote breast cancer cell progression. In turn, cancer cells–derived factors, such as IL-8 and granulocyte colony-stimulating factor, stimulate neutrophils to form NETs. Mechanistically, NETs increased the interaction of NF-κB essential modifier (NEMO) with IκB kinase (IKK)α/β and enhanced NF-κB activation. We then employed a cell-permeable peptide corresponding to the NEMO-binding domain (NBD) of IKKα/β, termed NBD peptide, which disrupts NETs-mediated NEMO interaction with IKKα/β and abolished NF-κB activation in vitro. NBD peptide also reduced IL-8 level and NETs formation, and suppressed primary tumor growth and/or lung metastasis in human breast cancer mouse xenograft models and mouse spontaneous breast cancer model. Blockade of NET formation using a peptidylarginine deiminase 4 (PAD4) pharmacologic inhibitor decreased NF-κB activation and tumor metastasis. Collectively, these data suggest that NF-κB associates with NETs to form a positive loop facilitating breast tumor progression and metastasis, and that selective inhibition of NF-κB and PAD4-dependent NETs provides an effective therapeutic approach for treating breast cancer.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Exploration of Climate Attractor Manifolds For Long-Term Predictability

Focal Area: This white paper responds to Focal Area 3. We seek to gain insight into decadal-scale climate predictability by applying novel manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques to the complex data produced by Earth System models (ESMs) such as E3SM. The associated portfolio of research activities leverages DOE’s asset mix of HPC platforms, climate expertise, climate simulation codes, and AI expertise. Science Challenge: Climate and climate models are dynamical systems exhibiting properties that are interpretable through chaos theory. The theory contains an important concept that is relevant to multi-decade-scale climate prediction: a chaotic attractor. While the space containing all the possible states of the Earth’s atmosphere and ocean, the possible weather, is large, the realized states tend to stay near the smaller-dimensioned attractor. This behavior is responsible for the “order behind the irregularity” [1] of climate phenomena. Climate change can be thought of as a change in the properties of the attractor, and predicting the climate over years to decades is equivalent to predicting how those properties will change. To date, the attractor has been a useful conceptual tool, but has not been amenable to direct characterization. A new development is the advent of efficient high-dimensional manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques, which permit a data-driven characterization of the ESM attractor and its probability distribution over weather states. Such a characterization would result in a natural dimensional reduction — a “non-linear Principal Components Analysis (PCA) adapted to climate simulation data” — leading to important advances in scenario-based long-term climate prediction, long-term prediction of water cycle extremes, ESM verification, inter-model comparison, and process model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

DeepCare: Improving Patient Care using Deep Learning on Electronic Health Records

Coordinating patient care using electronic health records (EHR) data presents an exciting but formidable opportunity in data extraction, analysis and modeling. Traditional methods use a manual feature driven approach to model patients with age, family history and symptoms to predict disease outcomes. We propose a novel approach to model patients based on their streaming electronic health records data combined with information from medical knowledge bases, which has been gained over years of medical research. Using a combination of representation learning and long short term memory (LSTM) networks we plan to model patient evolution over time, leading to more accurate and individualized predictive models for patient’s diseases. Our approach will be transformative in providing critical decision support for patient care, enabling accurate understanding and evolution of diseases in patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

AI@DOE Interim Executive Report

Interim executive report for DOE’s Office of Science, NNSA, and Applied Energy Offices, in collaboration with the Artificial Intelligence and Technology Office, DOE AI roundtable workshops (December 2021 through February 2022) (“AI@DOE”). These workshops were used to help identify AI research requirements and priorities for the next decade for Department of Energy in developing machine-learning-based prediction and decision-support capabilities that address and anticipate DOE mission challenges. These missions’ challenges for AI include: AI to advance scientific discovery and technological innovation AI to support high consequence decisions while managing risk AI to improve DOE’s responsiveness to national & global issues AI to assist stewardship of the environment and national critical infrastructure These will be addressed in large part through the development and application of new and powerful artificial intelligence and/or machine learning algorithms and strategies. https://web.cvent.com/event/fc3922f8-fc75-4041-a317-f13a1da44f7c/summary?locale=en-US&i=2Wx2tjbStkydRFq_N2whPw

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Disaster risk and artificial intelligence: A framework to characterize conceptual synergies and future opportunities

Artificial intelligence (AI) methods have revolutionized and redefined the landscape of data analysis in business, healthcare, and technology. These methods have innovated the applied mathematics, computer science, and engineering fields and are showing considerable potential for risk science, especially in the disaster risk domain. The disaster risk field has yet to define itself as a necessary application domain for AI implementation by defining how to responsibly balance AI and disaster risk. (1) How is AI being used for disaster risk applications; and how are these applications addressing the principles and assumptions of risk science, (2) What are the benefits of AI being used for risk applications; and what are the benefits of applying risk principles and assumptions for AI-based applications, (3) What are the synergies between AI and risk science applications, and (4) What are the characteristics of effective use of fundamental risk principles and assumptions for AI-based applications? This study develops and disseminates an online survey questionnaire that leverages expertise from risk and AI professionals to identify the most important characteristics related to AI and risk, then presents a framework for gauging how AI and disaster risk can be balanced. This study is the first to develop a classification system for applying risk principles for AI-based applications. This classification contributes to understanding of AI and risk by exploring how AI can be used to manage risk, how AI methods introduce new or additional risk, and whether fundamental risk principles and assumptions are sufficient for AI-based applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Construction of approximate invariants for non-integrable Hamiltonian systems

We present a method to construct high-order polynomial approximate invariants (AI) for non integrable Hamiltonian dynamical systems, and apply it to a modern ring-based particle accelerator. Taking advantage of a special property of one-turn transformation maps in the form of a square matrix, AIs can be constructed order-by-order iteratively. Evaluating AI with simulation data, we observe that AI’s fluctuation is actually a measure of chaos. Through minimizing the fluctuations, the stable region of long-term motions, i.e., the dynamic aperture of the accelerator, could be enlarged.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characterization of Extreme Hydroclimate Events in Earth System Models using ML/AI

Focal Area(s): (1) We put forward the concepts of data assimilation enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods including experimental/network design/optimization and unsupervised learning applied to downscale information within Earth System Models (ESMs). (2) We discuss predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (e.g., AI-driven model/component/parameterization selection) to improve the characterization of extreme hydroclimate events in ESMs. The AI-based models will run five-six order of magnitude times faster, yet will provide similar accuracy, allowing us to provide range bounds on uncertainty faster and thus enabling faster extreme event identification. (3) Further, we consider the insight gleaned from complex data (observed/simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI to improve the characterization of extreme hydroclimate events in ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Artificial Intelligence-Assisted Daytime Video Monitoring for Bird, Insect, and Other Wildlife Interactions with Photovoltaic Solar Energy Facilities

Studying bird, insect, and other wildlife interactions with photovoltaic (PV) solar energy facilities is difficult due to limited multi-season, multi-site data. Researchers can address such data gaps by combining passive monitoring and artificial intelligence (AI). As a part of the development of AI-enabled avian–solar monitoring software, we collected over 19,000 h of daytime videos at five PV sites across three U.S. regions between 2019 and 2024. We applied a moving object detection and tracking (MODT Version 1) AI model we developed earlier to 4373 h of the footage to extract moving objects in video frames, and human reviewers interpreted the model output and identified 68,646 bird, 25,968 insect, and 169 other wildlife instances to generate the training/validation dataset. We analyzed the data by site, region, and season, considering ground cover and landscapes. Songbirds were most common, with raptors as the next most frequent group. Most notably, no bird collisions were confirmed in our observations collected from the videos. Birds most often flew over or near panels, with the highest observations in the Midwest and Northeast (approximately 30 observations per hour on average) and fewer in the desert Southwest. Other behaviors included perching, foraging, and nesting. Bird abundance peaked during breeding and migration seasons. AI-assisted video monitoring proved effective for non-invasively studying flying wildlife at solar facilities to inform ecologically mindful energy development.

avian mortality↗