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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2021

The GF Convection Parameterization: Recent Developments, Extensions, and Applications

Recent developments and options in the GF (Grell and Freitas, 2014, Freitas et al.,2018) convection parameterization are presented. The parameterization has been expanded to atrimodal spectral size to simulate three convection modes: shallow, congestus and deep. Incontrast to usual entrainment/detrainment assumptions, we assume that Beta Functions (BFs),commonly applied to represent Probability Density Functions (PDF’s), can be used tocharacterize the vertical mass flux profiles for the three modes, and use the BFs to deriveentrainment and detrainment rates. We also added a new closure for non-equilibrium convectionthat improved the simulation of the diurnal cycle of convection, with a better representation ofthe transition from shallow to deep convection regimes over land. The transport of chemicalconstituents (including wet deposition) can be treated inside the GF scheme. The tracer transportis handled in flux form and is mass conserving. Finally, the cloud microphysics has beenextended to include the ice phase to simulate the conversion from liquid water to ice in updraftswith resulting additional heat release and the melting from snow to rain.

Saulo R De Freitas↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Survey of Mathematical Structures for Lunar Networks

To sustain the current and increasing accessibility of space, a scalable communications infrastructure (i.e. the Solar System Internet, SSI) is necessary. The goal of this paper is to begin the discovery of the fundamental underlying mathematical structure of space networks to help the research community harness these structures for algorithm development and optimization. To ensure the applicability of the research, the approaches are considered through the lens of simulated scenarios inspired by the Artemis Back-to-the-Moon mission set for 2024. We note that any approach to an SSI must fit under the umbrella of Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN), due to celestial mobility, high link latencies, high variance in link latencies, disconnections, lack of end-to-end paths, and so on. These difficulties are exacerbated by the fact that the underlying structure of a space network is a time-evolving network and may experience multiple discontinuities in its topology. In this paper we propose several novel approaches to a mathematical foundation for Delay Tolerant Networking Theory that fall outside the traditional scope of temporal network theory. These techniques include methods from Topological Data Analysis, Dynamic Graph Analysis, Applied Algebraic Geometry, Probability Theory, and Game Theory. Some of these methods include tools adapted to the study of dynamic metric spaces, such as zigzag persistent homology and their higher parameter analogs. We find that several of these methods target desired engineering outcomes such as discovery and automatic sub-netting. While each approach is theoretical, they are also algorithmic in nature and offer immediate practical applications. The paper concludes with comparisons of the various methods along with suggestions for future work.

Delay tolerant networking↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Bond Line Thickness Estimation in Composite Structures Using Multiple Inspection Techniques

Imaging and other nondestructive evaluation techniques are commonly used for material characterization and defect recognition in safety critical aerospace applications, with data fusion providing the framework for uncertainty quantification in these contexts. Most commonly, forward physics-based modeling predicts the response conditioned on material properties and defect assumptions, and probabilistic methods are used to infer the hidden state of the subject of the inspection from a combination of prior information, likelihoods, and inspection data. In this paper Bayesian methods are used to estimate bond thickness in lap joints comprised of aluminum adherends using a combination of infrared thermography and ultrasound. The concept of the conflation of probability distributions is applied to combine the posterior distributions derived from thermography and ultrasound and the quality of the fused estimates are compared against the individual estimates against synthetic data that was created to mimic the inspection of a lap joint comprised of aluminum adherends.

thermal nondestructive evaluation↗

NASA NTRS1974

A study of two statistical methods as applied to shuttle solid rocket booster expenditures

The state probability technique and the Monte Carlo technique are applied to finding shuttle solid rocket booster expenditure statistics. For a given attrition rate per launch, the probable number of boosters needed for a given mission of 440 launches is calculated. Several cases are considered, including the elimination of the booster after a maximum of 20 consecutive launches. Also considered is the case where the booster is composed of replaceable components with independent attrition rates. A simple cost analysis is carried out to indicate the number of boosters to build initially, depending on booster costs. Two statistical methods were applied in the analysis: (1) state probability method which consists of defining an appropriate state space for the outcome of the random trials, and (2) model simulation method or the Monte Carlo technique. It was found that the model simulation method was easier to formulate while the state probability method required less computing time and was more accurate.

Perlmutter, M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Bayesian Inference in Satellite Gravity Inversion

To solve a geophysical inverse problem means applying measurements to determine the parameters of the selected model. The inverse problem is formulated as the Bayesian inference. The Gaussian probability density functions are applied in the Bayes's equation. The CHAMP satellite gravity data are determined at the altitude of 400 kilometer altitude over the South part of the Pannonian basin. The model of interpretation is the right vertical cylinder. The parameters of the model are obtained from the minimum problem solved by the Simplex method.

Kis, K. I.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Application of a Reynolds Stress turbulence model to a supersonic hydrogen-air diffusion flame

A second-order differential Reynolds Stress turbulence model has been applied to the Favre-averaged Navier-Stokes equations for the study of supersonic flows undergoing hydrogen-air chemical reactions. An assumed Beta Probability Density Function is applied to account for the chemical source terms in the conservation equations. An algebraic Reynolds Flux model is used for the fluctuating density-velocity as well as the species mass fraction-velocity correlations. The variances of temperature and species fluctuations are also modelled using an algebraic flux technique. A seven-species, seven-reaction finite rate chemistry mechanism is used to simulate the combustion processes. The resulting formulation is validated by comparison with experimental data on reacting supersonic axisymmetric jets. Results obtained for specific conditions indicate that the effect of chemical reaction on the turbulence is significant.

Chandrasekhar, R.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Application of a Reynolds stress turbulence model to a supersonic radiating hydrogen-air diffusion flame

A second-order differential Reynolds Stress turbulence model has been applied to the Favre-averaged Navier-Stokes equations for the study of supersonic flows with finite-rate chemistry and radiation. An assumed Beta Probability Density Function is applied to account for the chemical source terms and the radiative flux terms in the conservation equations. A seven-species, seven-reaction finite rate chemistry mechanism is used to simulate the combustion process. The tangent slab approximation is used in radiative flux formulation. A pseudo-gray gas model is used to represent the absorption-emission characteristics of the participating species. The turbulence/radiation interaction is achieved via a new formulation. The resulting formulation is validated by comparison with experimental data on reacting supersonic axisymmetric jets. Results obtained for specific conditions indicate that the effect of chemical reaction on the turbulence is significant. Also, the radiative heat transfer is enhanced by the turbulence.

Chandrasekhar, R.↗

DOE OSTI2026

A spatiotemporally explicit and scalable indicator of intact lands across the conterminous United States, 1986–2023

Globally, ecologically intact areas are increasingly scarce. Agricultural expansion into previously uncultivated areas drives the loss of intact lands that might otherwise exhibit high levels of ecological integrity. Thus, the absence of cultivation can be an indicator of intact lands as measured from remote sensing data and thematic maps. Our objective for this study was to develop and compare tractable approaches based on remotely sensed satellite data to map spatial patterns of potentially intact lands across the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). Using annual cultivation probabilities derived from satellite observations, we classified and mapped potentially intact lands across CONUS from 1986 to 2023 at 30 m resolution. We created three maps, first by applying a constant cultivation probability threshold across CONUS, second by varying the threshold state-by-state to maximize state-level overall accuracies, and third by equalizing the state-level user's and producer's accuracies to minimize classification bias. Validation against 800,000+ independent ground samples resulted in CONUS-level overall accuracies ≥85% for the roughly 660 million ha of potentially intact land. Map accuracy varied with the proportion of potentially intact lands across regions, with the Pacific-Mountain and Great Plains regions exhibiting the highest accuracies, while Eastern CONUS exhibited a greater mix of potentially intact and non-intact lands and more moderate map accuracies. These novel maps and approaches can be adapted to different spatiotemporal extents to support conservation and production decisions ranging from species and ecosystems protection to reducing land conversion and climate mitigation.

agriculture↗

NASA NTRS1982

Probability of laminar flow loss because of ice crystal encounters

A method for combining the cloud detector observation results from the Global Atmospheric Sampling Program (GASP) with Knollenberg probe observations of cloud particle concentration from other programs to derive estimates of the ambient concentration of particles larger than a given size was developed. The method was applied to estimate the probability of encountering particle concentrations which would degrade the performance of laminar flow control (LFC) aircraft. It is concluded that LF loss should occur only about one percent of the time in clear air and that flight within clouds should always result in a significant loss of LF, with 90 percent LF loss occurring about one percent of the time. Preliminary estimates of cloud encounter probability are presented for four airline routes, and conclusions are presented as to the best altitudes for cloud avoidance in extratropical and tropical latitudes.

Davis, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) Risk Analysis Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) directorate at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) has applied its knowledge and experience with Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to projects in industries ranging from spacecraft to nuclear power plants. PRA is a comprehensive and structured process for analyzing risk in complex engineered systems and/or processes. The PRA process enables the user to identify potential risk contributors such as, hardware and software failure, human error, and external events. Recent developments in the oil and gas industry have presented opportunities for NASA to lend their PRA expertise to both ongoing and developmental projects within the industry. This paper provides an overview of the PRA process and demonstrates how this process was applied in estimating the probability that a Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit (MODU) operating in the Gulf of Mexico and equipped with a generically configured Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) loses location and needs to initiate an emergency disconnect. The PRA described in this paper is intended to be generic such that the vessel meets the general requirements of an International Maritime Organization (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC)/Circ. 645 Class 3 dynamically positioned vessel. The results of this analysis are not intended to be applied to any specific drilling vessel, although provisions were made to allow the analysis to be configured to a specific vessel if required.

Thigpen, Eric B.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) Risk Analysis Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

Thigpen, Eric B.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) of a Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit (MODU) Dynamic Positioning System (DPS)

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has been utilized by NASA in a variety of space oriented projects. It has served as one of the primary risk identification and ranking tools. Recent developments in the oil and gas industry have presented opportunities for NASA to lend their PRA expertise to both ongoing and developmental projects within the industry. As a result, NASA has entered into an agreement with Anadarko Petroleum Company (APC) to collaboratively develop PRAs for different aspects of the subsea drilling and completion process of well development. This paper documents how PRA was applied to estimate the probability that a Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit (MODU) equipped with a generically configured Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) loses location and needs to initiate an emergency disconnect. Since this project was in essence a pilot project, the PRA described in this paper is intended to be generic such that the vessel meets the general requirements of an International Maritime Organization (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC)/Circ. 645 Class 3 dynamically positioned vessel. The results of this analysis are not intended to be applied to any specific drilling vessel, although provisions were made to allow the analysis to be configured to a specific vessel if required.

Thigpen, Eric B.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Calculation of ion–ion mutual neutralization rate constants using Landau–Zener theory coupled with trajectory simulations for Ar + –Cl − , Br − , I −

In this computational study, we self-consistently calculate the rate constants of mutual neutralization reactions by incorporating the electron transfer probability, using Landau–Zener state transition theory with inputs derived from ab initio quantum chemistry calculations, into classical trajectory simulations. Electronic structure calculations are done using correlation consistent basis sets with multi-reference configuration interaction to map all the molecular electronic states below the ion-dissociation limit as a function of the distance between the reacting species. Our electronic structure calculations have been significantly improved from our previous work through improved selection of molecular electronic configurations maintaining a fine grid of 1a 0 over a wide range of bond lengths and accurate treatment of spin–orbit couplings. Non-adiabatic coupling matrix elements are calculated with the three-point central difference method near each avoided crossing to estimate the exact crossing point R x and coupling parameter H if , which are inputs to the multi-channel Landau–Zener theory to calculate the electron transition probability. Our approach is applied to estimate the mutual neutralization rate constants for the following ion pairs: Ar + –Cl − , Ar + –Br − , Ar + –I − at ∼133 Pa. Furthermore, our predictions are compared against the experimental data reported. It is seen that the improvement in the electronic structure calculation results in excellent agreement between the simulation results and the available experimental data to within a factor of ∼2 or ∼±50%.

Complete-active space self-consistent field↗

DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic flux limiters

The stable numerical integration of shocks in compressible flow simulations relies on the reduction or elimination of Gibbs phenomena (unstable, spurious oscillations). A popular method to virtually eliminate Gibbs oscillations caused by numerical discretization in under-resolved simulations is to use a flux limiter. A wide range of flux limiters have been studied in the literature, with recent interest in their optimization via machine learning methods trained on high-resolution datasets. The common use of flux limiters in numerical codes as plug-and-play blackbox components makes them key targets for design improvement. Even for deterministic dynamical models, numerical uncertainty is introduced via coarse-graining required by insufficient computational power to solve all scales of motion. Conventional flux limiters are deterministic and lack the capacity to address uncertainties, both aleatoric (inherent randomness) and epistemic (modeling uncertainty due to limited knowledge), which arise in coarse-grained numerical simulations. Here, we introduce a conceptually distinct type of flux limiter that is designed to handle the effects of randomness in the model and uncertainty in model parameters. Unlike traditional single-function flux limiters, these new probabilistic flux limiters incorporate multiple flux limiting functions, each applied with a learned probability drawn from high-resolution data to mitigate the effects of uncertainty in numerical simulations. This approach departs from traditional single-function limiters by explicitly modeling and incorporating uncertainty into the shock capturing process. Using the example of Burgers' equation as a testbed, we show that a machine learned, probabilistic flux limiter may be used in a shock capturing code to more accurately capture shock profiles. In particular, we show that our probabilistic flux limiter outperforms standard limiters and can be successively improved upon (up to a point) by expanding the set of probabilistically chosen flux limiting functions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1966

Sudden approximation applied to rotational excitation of molecules by atoms. II - Scattering of polar diatomics.

Sudden approximation applied to rotational transition probabilities and inelastic total cross sections for scattering of homonuclear diatomic molecules by atoms

SCATTERING CROSS SECTION↗

NASA NTRS1976

Vector wind and vector wind shear models 0 to 27 km altitude for Cape Kennedy, Florida, and Vandenberg AFB, California

The techniques are presented to derive several statistical wind models. The techniques are from the properties of the multivariate normal probability function. Assuming that the winds can be considered as bivariate normally distributed, then (1) the wind components and conditional wind components are univariate normally distributed, (2) the wind speed is Rayleigh distributed, (3) the conditional distribution of wind speed given a wind direction is Rayleigh distributed, and (4) the frequency of wind direction can be derived. All of these distributions are derived from the 5-sample parameter of wind for the bivariate normal distribution. By further assuming that the winds at two altitudes are quadravariate normally distributed, then the vector wind shear is bivariate normally distributed and the modulus of the vector wind shear is Rayleigh distributed. The conditional probability of wind component shears given a wind component is normally distributed. Examples of these and other properties of the multivariate normal probability distribution function as applied to Cape Kennedy, Florida, and Vandenberg AFB, California, wind data samples are given. A technique to develop a synthetic vector wind profile model of interest to aerospace vehicle applications is presented.

Smith, O. E.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Effective defect density for MOS breakdown - Dependence on oxide thickness

A new procedure for measuring effective defect density takes time-dependent primary dielectric breakdown in MOS devices into account. A time-varying breakdown probability is obtained by applying a constant field stress to a statistically sufficient number of MOS capacitors. Effective defects are assumed distributed randomly in two dimensions, hence indistinguishable. The effective defect density is found to vary with oxide thickness; tentative explanations are ventured to account for this (interfacial tensile stress, ion patching enhanced by local trapping, breakdown in the form of filamentary discharges with release of stored electrostatic energy).

Li, S. P.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A 153 day periodicity in the occurrence of solar flares producing energetic interplanetary electrons

The occurrence times of energetic (above 10 MeV) solar flare electron events observed on board the ISEE 3 spacecraft during the years 1978-1982 have been examined; strong evidence is found for a periodicity of 153 + or - 2 days, confirming the discovery of a periodicity in the occurrence of solar flares producing X-rays and gamma rays. The Rayleigh test for periodicity is applied to obtain a probability of less than 10 to the -6th that the times of the electron flares were drawn from a uniform distribution.

Droge, Wolfgang↗