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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3

Downscaling atmospheric chemistry simulations with physically consistent deep learning

Abstract. Recent advances in deep convolutional neural network (CNN)-based super resolution can be used to downscale atmospheric chemistry simulations with substantially higher accuracy than conventional downscaling methods. This work both demonstrates the downscaling capabilities of modern CNN-based single image super resolution and video super-resolution schemes and develops modifications to these schemes to ensure they are appropriate for use with physical science data. The CNN-based video super-resolution schemes in particular incur only 39 % to 54 % of the grid-cell-level error of interpolation schemes and generate outputs with extremely realistic small-scale variability based on multiple perceptual quality metrics while performing a large (8×10) increase in resolution in the spatial dimensions. Methods are introduced to strictly enforce physical conservation laws within CNNs, perform large and asymmetric resolution changes between common model grid resolutions, account for non-uniform grid-cell areas, super-resolve lognormally distributed datasets, and leverage additional inputs such as high-resolution climatologies and model state variables. High-resolution chemistry simulations are critical for modeling regional air quality and for understanding future climate, and CNN-based downscaling has the potential to generate these high-resolution simulations and ensembles at a fraction of the computational cost.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Distinctive Pattern of Global Warming in Ocean Heat Content

Abstract Huge heat anomalies in the atmosphere and ocean in recent years are not yet explained. Strong characteristic patterns in temperatures for upper layers of the ocean occurred from 2000 to 2023 in the presence of global warming from increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. Here, we show that the deep tropics are warming, although sharply modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation events, with strong heating in the extratropics near 40°N and 40°–45°S but little heating near 20°N and 25°–30°S. The heating is most clearly manifested in zonal-mean ocean heat content and is evident in sea surface temperatures. The strongest heating is in the Southern Hemisphere, where aerosol effects are small. Estimates are made of the contributions to heating of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation, atmospheric energy transports, surface fluxes of energy, and redistribution of energy by surface winds and ocean currents. The patterns of change are not directly related to TOA radiation but are evident in net surface energy fluxes and inferred ocean heat transports, underscoring their coupled origin. Changes in the atmospheric circulation through a poleward shift in ocean jet streams and storm tracks are reflected in surface wind-driven ocean Ekman transports. As well as human-induced climate change, internal natural variability is likely in play. Hence, the atmosphere and ocean currents are systematically redistributing heat from global warming, profoundly affecting local climates. Significance Statement As the climate changes, it has been difficult to discern meaningful patterns. Distinctive patterns of change have occurred in the ocean when examined as zonal averages around latitude bands. Most excess heat from global warming resides in the ocean and, since 2005, has become focused into bands near 40°N and 40°S, with little net warming in the subtropics. The strongest warming is in the Southern Hemisphere, although sea surface temperatures have increased more in the Northern Hemisphere. Changes in the atmospheric circulation through a poleward shift in the jet stream and storm tracks are primarily responsible along with corresponding changes in ocean currents. These changes are linked through surface exchanges of energy via heat, moisture, and wind stress.

Trenberth, Kevin E. [National Center for Atmospher↗

Hacking Kilometer-Scale Models: A Participative Model for Climate Information

In May 2025, nearly 700 participants from all around the world coalesced at 10 regional nodes and a few satellite nodes to take part in a global hackathon of kilometer-scale (horizontal grid spacing < 10 km) regional and global Earth system models. Exciting science is emerging from these efforts, ranging across novel model analysis, new ways of integrating with satellite data, and emulation with machine learning. New technologies were trialed that enable the community to work in new and complementary ways to democratize access to global information at a local scale from a set of the world’s highest-resolution climate models. The hackathon demonstrated how exascale data can be organized to be accessible to anyone. Fundamentally, the community could apply these techniques and technologies to move toward more participative models for coproduction and delivery of diverse sources of climate information for climate scientists and citizens alike.

Climate models↗

The Role of Vapor Pressure Deficit in the CLM Simulated Interaction Between Urban Heat Islands and Heat Waves Over CONUS

Abstract Although both urban and rural temperatures are expected to increase under heat waves (HWs), whether the urban heat island (UHI) intensity becomes stronger under HWs remains unknown especially at the daily mean and large spatial scales. Using an urbanized land surface model, we quantify the interactions between UHIs and HWs over the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Synergistic interactions (i.e., increased UHI intensities under HWs) are observed over the eastern and western U.S. However, negative interactions are found in the Central U.S. due to the stronger inhibition of rural evapotranspiration by vapor pressure deficit (VPD) stresses. The interactions between UHIs and HWs in the Central U.S. will be further reduced along with the elevated VPD stresses in a hotter future. The results highlight the importance of properly parameterizing the sensitivity of urban and rural evapotranspiration to various environmental stresses in climate and earth system models.

Wang, Linying [National Key Laboratory of Earth Sy↗

Replication Data for: Measurement of the mean number of muons with energies above 500 GeV in air showers detected with the IceCube Neutrino Observatory

<b>Measurement of the mean number of muons with energies above 500 GeV in air showers detected with the IceCube Neutrino Observatory</b> <br><br> This data release accompanies results submitted to Physical Review D describing the measurement of the average multiplicity of TeV muons with IceCube. It contains the data necessary to reproduce the main plots from the paper (Figs. 7 and 9), i.e. the numerical results for the average number of muons with energies above 500 GeV as a function of primary cosmic ray energy. <br><br> For any questions about this data release, please write to analysis@icecube.wisc.edu. <br><br> Files included in this release: <ul> <li>A README file <li>Files including data to reproduce the results plots from the paper (see below for details) <li>An example python script showing how to read and plot the data </ul> <br> <u>What is in the files icecube_Nmu500_X_Y.txt:</u> <br> Y indicates wether the file contains values obtained from experimental data (Y="data") or air-shower simulations (Y="MC"). <br> X indicates the hadronic interaction model for which the plot is made. If Y="data", this means that the experimental data was interpreted using this model. If Y="MC", it means that the simulations were performed with this model. The three models included are Sibyll 2.1, QGSJet-II.04, and EPOS-LHC (see paper for references). The file with X="modelaverage" gives the average over the three individual results with the deviations from the average included in the systematic uncertainties. <br><br> Please see the README file for details on how the data is structured in the files.

Astroparticle Physics↗

Thermodynamic Profiling Through ASSIST Observations and TROPoe Retrievals

This report reviews the most relevant theoretical aspects of thermodynamic profiling techniques based on spectral observations from ASSIST-II infrared radiometers and TROPoe retrievals. The ASSIST+TROPoe system is a cutting-edge remote sensing technology deployed during the AWAKEN and WFIP3 field campaigns to estimate high-frequency profiles of temperature and humidity in the atmosphere. These profiles are highly valuable for characterizing atmospheric stratification, improving wind models, and understanding the impacts of wind plants on the climate. In this document, we discuss the operating principles of ASSIST, the physics of atmospheric infrared radiation, and the mathematical framework and capabilities of TROPoe. Sources of uncertainties in both the instrument and the retrieval method are also thoroughly addressed. This guide is designed to help users of ASSIST, TROPoe, and thermodynamic data in collecting, estimating, and applying thermodynamic profiles rigorously and scientifically.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Evaluation of Global Fire Simulations in CMIP6 Earth System Models

Fire is the primary form of terrestrial ecosystem disturbance on a global scale and an important Earth system process. Most Earth system models (ESMs) have incorporated fire modeling, with 19 of them submitting model outputs of fire-related variables to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This study provides the first comprehensive evaluation of CMIP6 historical fire simulations by comparing them with multiple satellite-based products and charcoal-based historical reconstructions. Our results show that most CMIP6 models simulate the present-day global burned area and fire carbon emissions within the range of satellite-based products. They also capture the major features of observed spatial patterns and seasonal cycles, the relationship of fires with precipitation and population density, and the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of tropical fires. Regional fire carbon emissions simulated by the CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2010 generally align with the charcoal-based reconstructions, although there are regional mismatches, such as in southern South America and eastern temperate North America prior to the 1910s and in temperate North America, eastern boreal North America, Europe, and boreal Asia since the 1980s. The CMIP6 simulations have addressed three critical issues identified in CMIP5: (1) the simulated global burned area being less than half of that of the observations, (2) the failure to reproduce the high burned area fraction observed in Africa, and (3) the weak fire seasonal variability. Furthermore, the CMIP6 models exhibit improved accuracy in capturing the observed relationship between fires and both climatic and socioeconomic drivers and better align with the historical long-term trends indicated by charcoal-based reconstructions in most regions worldwide. However, the CMIP6 models still fail to reproduce the decline in global burned area and fire carbon emissions observed over the past 2 decades, mainly attributed to an underestimation of anthropogenic fire suppression, and the spring peak in fires in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, mainly due to an underestimation of crop fires. In addition, the model underestimates the fire sensitivity to wet–dry conditions, indicating the need to improve fuel wet-ness estimation. Based on these findings, we present specific guidance for fire scheme development and suggest a postprocessing methodology for using CMIP6 multi-model outputs to generate reliable fire projection products.

Wildfire, Earth system models↗

A physical method for downscaling land surface temperatures using surface energy balance theory

Fine-resolution land surface temperature (LST) derived from thermal infrared remote sensing images is a good indicator of surface water status and plays an essential role in the exchange of energy and water between land and atmosphere. A physical surface energy balance (SEB)-based LST downscaling method (DTsEB) is developed to downscale coarse remotely sensed thermal infrared LST products with fine-resolution visible and near-infrared data. Here, the DTsEB method is advantageous for its ability to mechanically interrelate surface variables contributing to the spatial variation of LST, to quantitatively weigh the contributions of each related variable within a physical framework, and to efficaciously avoid the subjective selection of scaling factors and the establishment of statistical regression relationships. The applicability of the DTsEB method was tested by downscaling 12 scenes of 990 m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and aggregated Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) LST products to 90 m resolution at six overpass times between 2005 and 2015 over three 9.9 km by 9.9 km cropland (mixed by grass, tree, and built-up land) study areas. Three typical LST downscaling methods, namely the widely applied TsHARP, the later developed least median square regression downscaling (LMS) and the geographically weighted regression (GWR), were introduced for intercomparison. The results showed that the DTsEB method could more effectively reconstruct the subpixel spatial variations in LST within the coarse-resolution pixels and achieve a better downscaling accuracy than the TsHARP, LMS and GWR methods. The DTsEB method yielded, on average, root mean square errors (RMSEs) of 2.01 K and 1.42 K when applied to the MODIS datasets and aggregated ASTER datasets, respectively, which were lower than those obtained with the TsHARP method, with average RMSEs of 2.41 K and 1.71 K, the LMS method, with average RMSEs of 2.35 K and 1.63 K, and the GWR method, with average RMSEs of 2.38 K and 1.64 K, respectively. The contributions of the related surface variables to the subpixel spatial variation in the LST varied both spatially and temporally and were different from each other. In summary, the DTsEB method was demonstrated to outperform the TsHARP, LMS, and GWR methods and could be used as a good alternative for downscaling LST products from coarse to fine resolution with high robustness and accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting the Evolution of Shallow Cumulus Clouds With a Lotka‐Volterra Like Model

Abstract In numerical weather prediction and climate models, boundary‐layer clouds are controlled by a wide range of subgrid‐scale processes. However, understanding the nature of these processes and their role in the evolution of the cloud size distribution as a whole has been elusive. To address this issue, we adopt a novel empirical framework from the field of population dynamics to model the evolution of cloud size statistics by using the shallow cumulus properties obtained from a large‐eddy simulation (LES). Our approach involves representing the cloud size distribution and the total cloud area using a revised Lotka‐Volterra model and ridge linear model, respectively. The physical interpretation of the total cloud area and coefficients obtained from the optimization of the models reveals three stages probably interpreted by dominant processes: the formation of new clouds, the growth of single clouds, and a steady state with organized transitions involving the growth and decay of multiple clouds. Furthermore, we showcase the potential of this framework to serve as a component of scale‐aware parameterizations of shallow‐convective clouds in atmospheric models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulation of decelerating streamers in inhomogeneous atmosphere with implications for runaway electron generation

The dynamics of positive and negative streamers is numerically simulated in atmospheric pressure air in the range of parameters corresponding to the streamer deceleration and termination in the middle of the discharge gap. A detailed comparison with experiments in air at constant and variable density demonstrates good agreement between the 2D simulation results and the observations. It is shown that positive and negative streamers behave in radically different ways when decelerating and stopping. When the head potential drops, the negative streamer transits to the mode in which the propagation is due to the forward electron drift. In this case, the radius of the ionization wave front increases, whereas the electric field at the streamer head decreases further and the streamer stops. Its head diameter continues to increase due to the slow drift of free electrons in the residual under-breakdown field. On the contrary, the only advancement mechanism for a positive streamer with a decreasing head potential is a decrease in the effective radius of the ionization wave, leading to a local increase in the electric field. This mechanism makes it possible to compensate for the reduction in the efficiency of gas photoionization at small head diameters. A qualitative 1D model is suggested to describe streamer deceleration and stopping for different discharge polarities. Estimates show that, during positive streamer stopping, the local electric field at the streamer head can exceed the threshold corresponding to the transition of electrons to the runaway mode when the head potential (relative to the surrounding space) decreases to~1.2 kV in atmospheric pressure air. In this case, pulsed generation of a beam of runaway electrons directed into the channel of a stopping positive streamer can occur. The energy of the formed pulsed electron beam depends on the intensity of photoionization in front of the streamer head. This energy can vary from 700 V (when increasing the photoionization rate by a factor of 10 with respect to the value in atmospheric pressure air) to 2.6 kV (when decreasing the photoionization rate by a factor of 1000). It is possible that this behavior of decelerating positive streamers can explain the observed bursts of x-ray radiation during the streamer propagation in long air gaps.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Aerosol Thermodynamics (Aerosol Liquid Water Concentration and Aerosol pH) at S2 during CoURAGE

These data report aerosol liquid water content (ALWC) and aerosol pH for the S2 (Mt. Airy) site during CoURAGE for April - June 2025. The ISORROPIA-II aerosol thermodynamic equilibrium model was used to compute ALWC and pH. The model was run in forward mode, with solids formation disabled (metastable mode), according to Pye et al. (Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2020). Information about the model can be found at https://www.epfl.ch/labs/lapi/models-and-software/isorropia/, and in Fountoukis and Nenes (Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2007). Inputs to the model were: (1) measured Temperature and relative humidity, both from the DoE ARM “metwxt” data products at S2, (2) aerosol chemical composition from the ARM ACSM, and (3) gas-phase ammonia concentrations. For ISORROPIA-II, ambient RH values above 0.995 were input to the model as 0.995; therefore, caution should be exercised interpreting ALWC when RH was above 0.995. Aerosol composition or NH3(g) concentrations below the LOD were input into the model as 0.5*LOD. Model runs were only conducted for data points at 30-min resolution with all three inputs (meteorology, ACSM, and NH3). If any of the three model inputs were missing, aerosol thermodynamic outputs are flagged as -999. Similarly, aerosol thermodynamic outputs are flagged as -999 if measured NH3(g) and aerosol ammonium (NH4+) were simultaneously below the respective LODs. The ALWC includes liquid water from inorganic aerosol components, calculated directly by ISORROPIA-II, as well as liquid water from organics, estimated from the ACSM organics assuming a kappa value of 0.12 according to Guo et al. (Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2015).

Aerosol Liquid Water Content↗

High-contrast Thermal Infrared Spectroscopy with ALES: The 3–4 μm Spectrum of κ Andromedae b

We present the first L-band (2.8–4.1 μm) spectroscopy of κ Andromedae b, a ~20 M Jup companion orbiting at 1" projected separation from its B9-type stellar host. We combine our Large Binocular Telescope (LBT) Arizona Lenslets for Exoplanet Spectroscopy (ALES) integral field spectrograph data with measurements from other instruments to analyze the atmosphere and physical characteristics of κ And b. We report a discrepancy of ~20% (2σ) in the L' flux of κ And b when comparing to previously published values. We add an additional L' constraint using an unpublished imaging data set collected in 2013 using the LBT Interferometer/LMIRCam, the instrument in which the ALES module has been built. The LMIRCam measurement is consistent with the ALES measurement, both suggesting a fainter L-band scaling than previous studies. The data, assuming the flux scaling measured by ALES and LMIRCam imaging, are well fit by an L3-type brown dwarf. Atmospheric model fits to measurements spanning 0.9–4.8 μm reveal some tension with the predictions of evolutionary models, but the proper choice of cloud parameters can provide some relief. In particular, models with clouds extending to very low pressures composed of grains ≤1 μm appear to be necessary. If the brighter L' photometry is accurate, there is a hint that subsolar metallicity may be required.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Crowdsourcing the Frontier: Advancing Hybrid Physics‐ML Climate Simulation via a $\$$50,000 Kaggle Competition

Subgrid machine-learning (machine learning [ML]) parameterizations have the potential to introduce a new generation of climate models that incorporate the effects of higher-resolution physics without incurring the prohibitive computational cost associated with more explicit physics-based simulations. However, important issues, ranging from online instability to inconsistent online performance, have limited their operational use for long-term climate projections. To more rapidly drive progress in solving these issues, domain scientists and ML researchers opened up the offline aspect of this problem to the broader ML and data science community with the release of ClimSim, a NeurIPS Data sets and Benchmarks publication, and an associated Kaggle competition. This paper reports on the downstream results of the Kaggle competition by coupling emulators inspired by the winning teams' architectures to an interactive climate model (including full cloud microphysics, a regime historically prone to online instability) and systematically evaluating their online performance. Our results demonstrate that online stability in the low-resolution real-geography setting is reproducible across multiple diverse architectures, which we consider a key milestone. All tested architectures exhibit strikingly similar offline and online biases, though their responses to architecture-agnostic design choices (e.g., expanding the list of input variables) can differ significantly. Multiple Kaggle-inspired architectures achieve state-of-the-art results on certain metrics such as zonal mean bias patterns and global Root Mean Squared Error, indicating that crowdsourcing the essence of the offline problem is one path to improving online performance in hybrid physics-AI climate simulation.

Environmental sciences↗

Scientific challenges to characterizing the wind resource in the marine atmospheric boundary layer

Abstract. With the increasing level of offshore wind energy investment, it is correspondingly important to be able to accurately characterize the wind resource in terms of energy potential as well as operating conditions affecting wind plant performance, maintenance, and lifespan. Accurate resource assessment at a particular site supports investment decisions. Following construction, accurate wind forecasts are needed to support efficient power markets and integration of wind power with the electrical grid. To optimize the design of wind turbines, it is necessary to accurately describe the environmental characteristics, such as precipitation and waves, that erode turbine surfaces and generate structural loads as a complicated response to the combined impact of shear, atmospheric turbulence, and wave stresses. Despite recent considerable progress both in improvements to numerical weather prediction models and in coupling these models to turbulent flows within wind plants, major challenges remain, especially in the offshore environment. Accurately simulating the interactions among winds, waves, wakes, and their structural interactions with offshore wind turbines requires accounting for spatial (and associated temporal) scales from O(1 m) to O(100 km). Computing capabilities for the foreseeable future will not be able to resolve all of these scales simultaneously, necessitating continuing improvement in subgrid-scale parameterizations within highly nonlinear models. In addition, observations to constrain and validate these models, especially in the rotor-swept area of turbines over the ocean, remains largely absent. Thus, gaining sufficient understanding of the physics of atmospheric flow within and around wind plants remains one of the grand challenges of wind energy, particularly in the offshore environment. This paper provides a review of prominent scientific challenges to characterizing the offshore wind resource using as examples phenomena that occur in the rapidly developing wind energy areas off the United States. Such phenomena include horizontal temperature gradients that lead to strong vertical stratification; consequent features such as low-level jets and internal boundary layers; highly nonstationary conditions, which occur with both extratropical storms (e.g., nor'easters) and tropical storms; air–sea interaction, including deformation of conventional wind profiles by the wave boundary layer; and precipitation with its contributions to leading-edge erosion of wind turbine blades. The paper also describes the current state of modeling and observations in the marine atmospheric boundary layer and provides specific recommendations for filling key current knowledge gaps.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Electrochemical characterization of the plasma-water interface

Nonthermal atmospheric pressure plasmas generated using noble gases act as gaseous electrodes capable of promoting electrochemical reactions when in contact with aqueous media. Despite overwhelming evidence in favor of the interfacial region between the plasma and solution being a reducing environment, the plasma-liquid interface has not been evaluated from an electrochemical perspective. Herein, we present an electrochemical method to measure the overpotential at the plasma-liquid interface of solutions containing organic redox couples. Negative overpotentials indicate that the interfacial region is a reducing environment, which is consistent with the results of colorimetric assays using redox indicators. The reaction rates are related to the magnitude of the overpotential, as expected from electrochemical kinetic models. The ability to characterize the overpotential of plasma-liquid interfaces adds to the plasma electrochemistry toolkit and contributes to efforts being made to tune gaseous electrodes for the rational control of redox reactions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Primary Velocity and Orbital Phase Effects on Planetary Detectability from Small Epoch Number Data Sets

Cross-correlation analyses of high-resolution spectroscopic data have recently shown great success in directly detecting planetary signals and enabling the characterization of their atmospheres. One such technique aims to observe a system at multiple epochs and combine the measured planetary radial velocities from each epoch into a measurement of the planetary Keplerian orbital velocity K {sub p}, constituting a direct detection of the planetary signal. Recent work has shown that in few-epoch (∼5) data sets, unintended structure can arise at a high level, obscuring the planetary detection. In this work, we look to simulations to examine whether there are ways to reduce this structured noise in few-epoch data sets by careful planning of observations. The choice of observation date allows observers to select the primary (stellar) velocity through a set systemic velocity and chosen barycentric velocity and the planetary orbital phase so we focus on the effects of these two parameters. We find that epochs taken when the primary velocity is near zero and the stellar lines remain relatively fixed to the telluric rest-frame greatly reduce the level of structured noise and allow for much stronger planetary detections, on average more than twice the significance of detections made with epochs using randomly selected primary velocities. Following these results, we recommend that observers looking to build up high-resolution multi-epoch data sets target nights when their system has a near-zero primary velocity.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗